COLLEGE

OF BUSINESS AND ACCOUNTANCY

Final Examination in Management Science

Name_______________________________________ Date ___________________________Score_______________

Year and Course ______________________________________ Instructor: Mr. Juanito J. Valles, Sr.

Directions. Solve the given problem for each part of the test. The examination will take
about two(3) hours. You may use any sheet of paper for you to show your complete solution.
Take pictures of your solutions and send them when your time is over. You are given ten
(20) minutes to upload and return your answers in assignment channel of your MS Team.
For authentic assessment purposes, the time in returning your answers will be strictly
followed. Good luck!
Test I. Forecasting. Demand for oil changes at Garcia’s Garage has been as follows.

Month Number of Oil
Changes
January 41
February 46
March 57
April 52
May 59
June 51
July 60
August 62
a. Prepare a forecast for months March to September using 3-month moving average.
b. Prepare a forecast for months June to September using 5-month moving average.
c. Use a 3-month weighted moving average to forecast the sales for the months April
to September. Use weights (4/7), (2/7), (1/7).
d. What is the forecast for September?
e. Calculate the MAD as of the end of September.
f. Present the forecasts from a to c in graphically( One graph for each forecast).
g. Find the prediction interval at 95%
h. Find the confidence interval at 95%

Test II. Capacity. Solve the given problem and show your complete solution.

You are the manager of a local bank where three tellers provide services to customers.
On average, each teller takes three minutes to serve a customer. Customers arrive, on
average, at a rate of 50 per hour. Having recently received complaints from some customers
that they have had to wait for a long time before being served, your boss asks you to
evaluate the service system. Specifically, you must provide answers to the following
questions.
a. What is the average utilization of the three-teller service system?
b. What is the probability that no customers are being served by ateller or are
waiting in line?
c. What is the average number of customers waiting in line?
d. On average, how long does a customer wait in line before being served?
e. On average, how many customers would be at a teller’s station and in line?

Point System: one point for every solution and 5 points for final answer. Each graph will
be given 5 points.