THE IRAN-IRAQ WAR

Also by Efraim Karsh

THE CAUTIOUS BEAR: Soviet Military Engagement
in the Middle-Eastern Wars in the Post-1967 Era
THE IRAN-IRAQ WAR: A Military Analysis
NEUTRALITY AND SMALL STATES
THE SOVIET UNION AND SYRIA
The Iran-Iraq War
Impact and Implications

Edited by
Efraim Karsh
Senior Fellow at the Jaffee Center for Strategic Studies and
Lecturer in International Relations, Tel-Aviv University

Palgrave Macmillan
ISBN 978-0-333-48686-3 ISBN 978-1-349-20050-4 (eBook)
DOI 10.1007/978-1-349-20050-4

© The Jaffee Center for Strategic Studies, Tel-AvivUniversity, 1989

Softcover reprint of the hardcover 1st edition 1989 978-0-333-48685-6
All rights reserved. For information, write:
Scholarly and Reference Division,
St. Martin's Press, Inc., 175 Fifth Avenue,
New York, N.Y. 10010

First published in the United States of America in 1989

ISBN 978-0-312-03629-4

Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data

The Iran-Iraq war: impact and implications! edited by Efraim Karsh.
p. cm.
Rev. and updated papers originally delevered at an international
conference, September, 1988, Tel-Aviv University.
Includes bibliographical references.
ISBN 978-0-312-03629-4
1. Iran-Iraq War, 1980-1988-Influence-Congresses. 2. Persian
Gulf Region-Politics and Government-Congresses. I. Karsh,
Efraim. II. Merkaz le-mehkarim estrategiyim 'al shem Yafeh.
DS318.85.169 1989
955.05'4--dc20 89-36375
CIP
In memory of Efraim Marszalkowicz
The Jaffee Center for Strategic
Studies (JCSS)
The Center for Strategic Studies was established at Tel-Aviv University at the
end of 1977. In 1983 it was named the Jaffee Center for Strategic Studies in
honour of Mr and Mrs Mel Jaffee. The objective of the Center is to
contribute to the expansion of knowledge on strategic subjects and to
promote public understanding of and pluralistic thought on matters of
national and international security.
The Center relates to the concept of strategy in its broadest meaning,
namely, the complex of processes involved in the identification, mobilization,
and application of resources in peace and war, in order to solidify and
strengthen natiorial and international security.

Jess Publications
JCSS publications present the findings and assessments of the Center's
research staff. Each paper represents the work of a single investigator or a
team. Such teams may include research fellows who are not members of the
Center's staff. Views expressed in the Center's publications are those of the
authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Center, its trustees,
officers, or other .staff members or the organizations and individuals that
support its research. Thus the publication of a work by JCSS signifies that it
is deemed worthy of public consideration but does not imply endorsement of
conclusions or recommendations.

Editor Executive Editor

AHARON YARIV JOSEPH ALPHER

vi
Contents
List of Figures and Tables ix
Notes on the Contributors x
Preface xiii
Introduction
Efraim Karsh

PART I THE WAR AND THE BELLIGERENTS

I Iran and the War: From Stalemate to Ceasefire
Shahram Chubin 13
2 From Ideological Zeal to Geopolitical Realism: The
Islamic Republic and the Gulf
Efraim Karsh 26
3 Iran: Doctrine and Reality
David Menashri 42
4 The Consequences of the Iran-Iraq War for Iraqi Politics
Charles Tripp 58
5 Iraq: Between East and West
Amazia Baram 78

PART II REGIONAL IMPLICATIONS

6 The Impact on the Arab World
ltamar Rabinovich 101
7 The War and the Spread of Islamic Fundamentalism
Robin Wright 110
8 The Gulf States and the Iran-Iraq War
Barry Rubin 121
9 The Silent Victor: Turkey's Role in the Gulf War
Henri J. Barkey 133
10 Israel and the Iran-Iraq War
Joseph Alpher 154

PART III THE WAR AND THE WORLD

11 Walking Tightropes in the Gulf
Thomas L. McNaugher 171
vii
viii Contents

12 The Soviet Union and the Iran-Iraq War

Robert S. Litwak 200
13 Europe and the Iran-Iraq War
John Chipman 215

PART IV THE ECONOMICS OF WAR

14 Economic Implications for the Region ~d World Oil
Market
Eliyahu Kanovsky 231

PART V STRATEGIC AND MILITARY IMPLICATIONS

IS A Military-Strategic Overview
Chaim Herzog 255
16 The Arms Race after the Iran-Iraq War
Geoffrey Kemp 269
17 Escalation in the Iran-Iraq War
Philip A. G. Sabin 280
Select Bibliography 296
Index 299
List of Figures and Tables
Figures

9.1 Destination of Turkish exports 135

9.2 Export shares 137
9.3 Imports 138
9.4 Turkish trade with Iran and Iraq 146
9.5 Imports as a percentage share of the total 147

Tables

9.1 Turkish exports 1978-87 136

9.2 Turkish imports 1978-87 136
14.1 Iraq - selected economic indicators 234
14.2 Iran - selected economic indicators 244

ix
Notes on the Contributors
Joseph Alpher is Deputy Head of the Jaffee Center for Strategic Studies, Tel-
Aviv University. He is a former department head in the Israeli Prime
Minister's Office. He recently served as co-ordinator and co-editor of the
JCSS Study Group Report The West Bank and Gaza: Israel's Options for
Peace (1989).

Amma Baram is a Lecturer on Modem Middle Eastern History at the

University of Haifa and the author of numerous articles on Iraqi politics. In
1988-9 he was a Visiting Scholar at the Woodrow Wilson International
Center for Scholars (Washington, DC).

Henri J. Barkey is Assistant Professor in International Relations at Lehigh

University, specializing in Turkish affairs. He is currently completing a book
on the industrialization of Turkey.

John Chipman is Assistant Director for Regional Security Studies at the IISS,
where he directs the Institute's research and conference programme on the
Middle East, Africa, Asia, and Latin America. He is the editor of NATO's
Southern Allies: Internal and External Challenges (1988), and the author of
French Power and Africa: History of an Idea and its Post Colonial Practice
(1989), among other works.

Shabram Chubin an Iranian national is currently at the Graduate Institute of

International Studies, Geneva. Formerly on the staff of the International
Institute of Strategic Studies (London), his most recent publication (with
Charles Tripp) is Iran and Iraq at War (1988). His other books include The
Persian Gulf: The Role of the Outside Powers (1981) and Iran's Foreign
Relations (1974).

Chaim Herzog is President of the State of Israel, and a leading commentator

on military and strategic affairs. His long and distinguished career includes
postings as Director of Military Intelligence, Member of the Foreign Affairs
and Defence Committee of the Knesset, and Israel's Permanent Representa-
tive to the United Nations. His many publications include The War of
Atonement (1975); The Arab-Israeli Wars (1982); and Battles of the Bible
(1982), of which he is co-author.

Eliyahu Kanovsky, Professor of Economics, is Dean of the Faculty of Social

Sciences at Bar-Ilan University. His recent publications include: 'Soviet-
American Competition in the Middle East: The US - The Economic

x
 Notes on Contributors xi

Dimension', in Spiegel, Heller and Goldberg (eds), The Soviet-American

Competition in the Middle East (1988); 'Another Oil Shock in the 1990s? A
Dissenting View', Washington Institute for Near East Policy, 1987; 'Saudi
Arabia's Dismal Future: Regional and Global Implications', Middle East
Contemporary Survey 1987; 'What's Behind Syria's Current Economic
Problems?' Middle East Contemporary Survey, 1986.

Efraim Karsh, the volume editor, is a Senior Fellow at the Jaffee Center for
Strategic Studies and a Lecturer on International Relations, Tel- Aviv
University. He has held teaching and/or research posts at Columbia Univer-
sity, the International Institute for Strategic Studies (London), and the
Kennan Institute for Advanced Russian Studies (Washington DC). His most
recent publications include The Iran-Iraq War: A Military Analysis (1987)
and The Soviet Union and Syria (1988).

Geoffrey Kemp is a Senior Associate at the Carnegie Endowment for

International Peace. He served in the White House on the National Security
Council staff from 1981--4 and was Senior Director for Near East & South
Asian Affairs.

Robert S. Litwak directs the International Security Studies Program at the

Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars in Washington. He has
held research fellowships at Harvard University and at the International
Institute for Strategic Studies in London. He is the author of Detente and the
Nixon Doctrine and Security in the Persian Gulf: Sources of Interstate
Conflict, amongst other publications. Dr Litwak was a visiting scholar at the
Institute of Oriental Studies (USSR Academy of Sciences) in Moscow in
spring 1986 and is currently completing a book on Soviet policies in the
Third World under Gorbachev.

Thomas L. McNaugber is a Senior Fellow in Foreign Policy Studies at the

Brookings Institution. Formerly a policy analyst at the Rand Corporation,
he is the author, inter alia, of Arms and Oil: U.S. Military Strategy and the
Persian Gulf.

Dand Menasbri is a Senior Research Fellow at the Dayan Center for Middle
Eastern and African Studies, Tel Aviv-University. He has held teaching and/
or research posts at Princeton and Cornell universities, and is the author of
Iran: The Revolution and Beyond (1989), among other works.

Itamar Rabinonch, Professor of Middle Eastern History, is Dean of the

Faculty of Humanities as Head ofthe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and
African Studies, Tel-Aviv University. His many publications include Syria
under the Ba'th (1972) and The War for Lebanon (1985).
xii Notes on Contributors

Barry Rubin is a Fellow at the Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced

International studies. He is author of Paved with Good Intentions: The
American Experience and Iran, and Modern Dictators: Third World Coup-
makers, Strongmen, and Populist Tyrants, among other books.

Philip A. G. Sabin is a Lecturer in Technology and Military Policy at the

Department of War Studies, King's College London. He has held research
fellowships at Harvard and at the International Institute for Strategic Studies
in London. His publications include a book on The Third World War Scare
in Britain (1986), an Adelphi Paper on Perceptions and Symbolism in Nuclear
Force Planning (1987), and an edited volume on The Future of UK Air Power
(1988), together with numerous articles on defence issues.

Charles Tripp is currently a Lecturer in Politics, with special reference to the

Near and Middle East, at the School of Oriental and African Studies,
University of London. In 1988 he co-authored, with Shahram Chubin, the
book Iran and Iraq at War.

Robin Wright wrote her chapter as a Senior Associate at the Carnegie

Endowment for International Peace. Formerly the Beirut correspondent of
the Sunday Times, she is the author of Sacred Rage: The Wrath of Militant
Islam (1986), and has recently completed another book entitled, In the Name
of God: The First Decade of the Islamic Revolution.
Preface
Perhaps the first post-bellum analysis of the eight-year war between Iran and
Iraq, this book evolved from papers delivered initially at an international
conference convened at Tel-Aviv University in September 1988. The papers
were revised and updated in early 1989.
The numerous studies of the war published so far have concentrated on
limited aspects of this protracted conflict, without trying to present a
comprehensive analysis. The end of the war generated a need for an updated
multifaceted analysis, addressing the various dimensions of the war, from its
impact on Iran and Iraq to the regional and global implications; from its
social and political ramifications to the military, strategic and economic
significance. In filling this research lacuna, this volume adopts an interdiscip-
linary approach, bringing· together historians of modern Middle East affairs,
political scientists, economists and military strategists.
In undertaking such a wide-ranging project, one must, naturally, draw on
the support and counsel of many individuals and institutions. I am especially
indebted to Maj.-General (Res.) Aharon Yariv, Head of the Jaffee Center for
Strategic Studies, and Joseph Alpher, Deputy Head of JCSS, for their
invaluable support and encouragement throughout the various stages of the
project. Special thanks are also due to the US Naval War College Founda-
tion which co-sponsored the conference. I am also grateful to the following
guest speakers, commentators and chairmen who greatly enriched the
conference discussions, thus contributing to the refinement of the essays:
Richard Boidin of the French Foreign Office, Eliot Cohen of the Naval War
College, Yair Evron, Azar Gat, and Aaron Klieman of the Department of
Political Science, Tel-Aviv University, Gad Gilbar of the University of Haifa,
Galia Golan of the Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Mark Heller, Aharon
Levran and Aryeh Shalev from the JCSS, Martin Kramer of the Tel-Aviv
University, Aryeh Levin of the Israeli Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Daniel
Pipes of the Foreign Policy Research Institute, Philadelphia, Ze'ev Schiff of
Ha'aretz newspaper, and Barry Watts of the Northrop Corporation. Finally,
I am grateful to Tova Polonsky and Shulamit Reich of the JCSS for their
administrative assistance, and to Alexandra Szilvassy for research and
editorial assistance.

Tel-Aviv EFRAIM KARSH

xiii