ASEAN and The Quad

in the Regional Architecture

Emeritus Professor Carlyle A. Thayer

Presentation to the 13th South China Sea International Conference
Looking Back to a Brighter Future
hosted by the Diplomatic Academy of Viet Nam
Hanoi, Viet Nam
November 18-19, 2021
Quad Time Line, 2004-2021
Quad
revived
SOM1
Quad 11/2017
moribund
Diplomatic
dialogue
2007
Tsunami
12/2004
Humanitarian assistance by the Quad –
Australia, India, Japan and the United States
 Quad Time Line

FMM1
SOM4 9/19
5/19
SOM3
11/18
SOM2
Eight Senior Officials’
6/18 Meetings (SOM), 2017-2021
 Quad Time Line

SOM7
FMM2 12/20
10/20
SOM6
9/20
SOM5
Three Foreign Ministers’
11/19 Meetings (FMM), 2020-21
 Quad Time Line

Summit
Summit 9/21
3/21
FMM3
2/21

SOM8
8/21 Two Summit
Meetings, 2021
 SOM Agenda, 2017-2020*
• Free and open… rules-based order in the IPR
• SOM1
• Open, inclusive and prosperous… rules-based order in the
IPR
• SOM2
• Open, prosperous and inclusive IPR… rules-based order
• SOM3
• Open, prosperous, rules-based and inclusive IPR
• SOM5

*Based on Australia’s Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade media releases

 SOM Agenda, 2017-2020
• Non-proliferation
• SOM 1-4
• Good governance
• SOM2-3
• Connectivity
• SOM 2-3 and 5
• Sustainable development, economic growth/development
• SOM2 & SOM4-5, SOM 2-5
 SOM Agenda, 2017-2020
• ASEAN-centrality and ASEAN-led regional architecture
• SOM2-8
• East Asia Summit, Pacific Island Forum, Indian Ocean Rim
Association
• SOM3
• Pacific Island Forum, Indian Ocean Rim Association
• SOM4
• Regional integration
• SOM 4-5
 SOM Agenda, 2017-2020
• Maritime, maritime cooperation, and maritime security
• SOM 1, SOM 2-5, SOM 6-8 respectively
• Freedom of navigation
• Mentioned at SOM 1-4 but not SOM 5-8
• Mekong Sub-Region
• SOM5
• ASEAN Outlook on the Indo-Pacific (AOIP)
• SOM5-8
• Quad a work in progress until SOM 5 then major focus on
COVID-19 pandemic
 SOM Agenda, 2017-2020
• Supporting Indo-Pacific countries in managing health and
economic impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic
• Chart pathway towards economic recovery in a manner that
helps all countries reinforce their own sovereignty and
resilience
• SOM6 (September 2020)
• Health and economic recovery, facilitate access to safe and
effective COVID-19 vaccines
• SOM7-8
 Quad Leaders’ Joint Statement:
‘The Spirit of the Quad’ – March 12, 2021

• First virtual Quad summit

• Free and Open Indo-Pacific – democratic rules-based order
unconstrained by coercion
• International law in maritime domain, maritime security
• Support ASEAN unity and centrality
• Foreign ministers will meet at least once a year
• In-person leaders’ summit to be held in 2021
 Climate
COVID-19
Change

1st Quad Quality

Summit infrastructure
Counter
Shared terrorism Critical
technologies
Global Disaster relief
Cyber space
Challenges
Outcomes Quad Vaccine Partnership

of 1st Quad • Vaccine Expert Working Group

Summit –
Quad Climate Working Group
3 working
groups Quad Critical & Emerging Technology
 Combatting COVID-19 Pandemic

Outcomes High Standard Infrastructure

of 2nd Quad
Summit Mitigating Climate Change

Emerging Technologies, Space, and Cyber

Next Generation Quad Fellowship STEM

 Quad Meetings and Processes
Institutionalised
Leaders’ Summit
•Foreign Ministers
Senior Officials Meeting (SOM)
•Experts
 Conclusion: The Quad Responds to
Most Pressing Challenges faced by ASEAN
• COVID-19 vaccines and economic recovery
• Climate change
• Humanitarian assistance and disaster relief
• Infrastructure
• Cyber
• Countering disinformation
• Counter-terrorism
• Critical and emerging technology
 ASEAN and The Quad
• A diplomatic network – Australia, India, Japan, United
States
• Forum for strategic exchange and positive practical
cooperation
• Compliments engagement by dialogue partners in
ASEAN-led architecture
• Engagement with ASEAN and ASEAN-led institutions
gives it a Southeast Asia rather than Indo-Pacific focus
 Conclusion
• The Quad is a work in progress
• Focus is on non-traditional security challenges
• No substantial progress on maritime security
• Compliments other bilateral, regional and multilateral
cooperation by members of the Quad
• Bilateral and tri-lateral relations are more salient at the
present time
• US-Japan, Australia-US, Australia-Japan, Australia-Japan-US (tri-
lateral)
 ANZUS
1951

ASEAN Plus AUKUS FPDA

Four in the 2021
ASEAN
1971
Regional
Architecture?
Quad TSD
2017 2002

TSD = Trilateral Security Dialogue

Australia-Japan-United States
 ASEAN and The Quad
in the Regional Architecture

Emeritus Professor Carlyle A. Thayer

Presentation to the 13th South China Sea International Conference
Looking Back to a Brighter Future
hosted by the Diplomatic Academy of Viet Nam
Hanoi, Viet Nam
November 18-19, 2021