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THE DEBATE | POLITICS

Containing the Taliban after America’s Defeat

Western nations should swiftly move to restrict the space, capability,
SEPTEMBER 01, 2021 authority of the new Taliban regime in Kabul.
Vietnam Lost
Public Buy-in.
Its COVID-19 By Mark S. Cogan and Paul D. Scott
Struggles August 31, 2021
Followed.

The ancient Chinese strategy game of weiqi,

or Go, involves a competition in which the
player who occupies the most board space
SEPTEMBER 01, 2021
wins. Logic would dictate that in
Schools
Afghanistan, a Go strategy by the Taliban
Reopen in
India Even as would have resulted in a decisive victory,
Another but that would be absolutely wrong. Had
COVID Wave the Taliban pursued a Go strategy, holding
Looms
the countryside, where some three-
quarters of the Afghan population lives, it
would not have succeeded as spectacularly U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken delivers remarks on
as it did in seizing power following the U.S. the situation in Afghanistan at the Department of State in
AUGUST 31, 2021 withdrawal earlier this month. Such a Washington, D.C., on August 30, 2021.
Report Reveals Credit: State Department/Ron Przysucha
strategy would have left the Afghan
COVID-19’s
national government in control of most of
Deep Impact
on Cambodian the major cities, plus the capital Kabul, which would have been enough to ADVERTISEMENT
Tourism produce a stalemate – the best possible outcome for Ashraf Ghani’s national
Economy government, the Americans and their allies, and the Afghan people.

M
The creation of a stalemate in the 20-year war in Afghanistan would have been
MULTIMEDIA a win because nation building, the expansion and consolidation of democratic
norms, and the promotion of good governance would have continued. The
status quo, while expensive, would have been maintained. Most importantly,
accepting a stalemate would have avoided a total Taliban victory. By not
accepting the real and present advantages of a stalemate, U.S. President Joe
AUGUST 26, 2021
Biden, instead, opted for a complete loss for the U.S. and its allies, as well as the
The Taliban, 9/11
and An American people of Afghanistan. By continuously reiterating that he wanted to end a war
Evacuation and not saddle another U.S. president with an “endless war,” his decision has International Sales
Strategy
created a dilemma of how to handle the newly-founded Islamic Emirate of
Build Your Global Sales
Afghanistan. Strategy to Mitigate
Risk & Prepare for
Many observers have raised the question about the possibility of a Taliban 2.0, Long-Term Success.
Globalization Partners
a new and more moderate version of the regime that ruled Afghanistan from
AUGUST 14, 2021

A Visit to 1996 to 2001. Yet experience dictates that softer, more moderate versions of
Pangong Lake radical groups don’t exist. We need only look at other hard authoritarian
regime types, such as the military junta in Myanmar, to disprove this idea. Just
days ago, the Taliban would have been considered a non-state armed group.
Today, they are merely state sponsors of terrorism. History dictates that those
who come to power by outbidding their opponents and destroying moderates
AUGUST 10, 2021
only become more extreme because of their lack of popular legitimacy.
Myanmar, Six
Months After the Consequently, they affirm their grip on power by taking more and more extreme
Coup positions. This has recently been the case in Myanmar, Belarus, Cambodia, and
Syria, where a combination of rewarding loyalty and dishing out repression has

INTERVIEW
I compensated for regimes’ lack of legitimacy. Fear and violence are their ready
handmaidens. Those who have negotiated agreements with the Taliban under
the assumption that moderation would be beneficial to all concerned have
witnessed these agreements violated. This makes Biden’s assertion that he was
bound by the conditional Trump negotiation absurd.
AUGUST 31, 2021
The West can learn lessons from recent events in other parts of the world in
Pakistan-China
Relations and contemplating what to do about the Taliban. The first is that while international
the Fall of isolation has not been successful in ousting other hard authoritarian rulers from
Afghanistan power, it has eroded the external legitimacy they seek. Targeted sanctions and
By MERCY A. KUO
international isolation have cut the margins of the Myanmar junta’s state-owned
Insights from
Elizabeth conglomerates and have forced international partners like India and Japan to
Threlkeld. reconsider their investments in the country. The new Taliban government has
already gained legitimacy from China, Pakistan, and Russia, the former seeking
to exploit, along with their Taliban partners, Afghanistan’s untapped mineral
and oil wealth.

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Second, the West should take a page from China’s playbook regarding Taiwan by
challenging and preventing the recognition of the Taliban regime as a sovereign
state. In this regard, China has been unfortunately successful in having a
democratic entity factored off the world stage. United Nations membership
represents the codification of sovereignty and legitimacy. Accomplishing a
similar task with Afghanistan, which has been a U.N. member state since 1946,
would involve forming a broad coalition among U.N. member-states to counter
legitimizing actions by a similar coalition led by China and its allies. China’s
rising influence in the U.N. cannot be underestimated. U.N. Secretary General
Antonio Guterres has already suggested that the Security Council not recognize
any government that obtains power through force and that the U.N. should not
recognize the restoration of an Islamic Emirate, as reflected in prior Security
Council statements. Efforts to legitimize the Taliban on the world stage would
compromise what limited leverage the international community possesses.

Smart economic sanctions should be immediately considered, although this is a

major challenge, as much of the Taliban’s illicit wealth is not invested in
international financial systems. Some of these sanctions have already begun, as
the United States immediately froze $9.5 billion in central bank assets, while the
International Monetary Fund (IMF) blocked access to more than $460 million.
International aid, which was the engine of development in Afghanistan over the
past twenty years, will soon dry up.

N
It is uncommon for authoritarian regimes to be
DIPLOMAT BRIEF
WEEKLY NEWSLETTER adept at social media. Most are more interested in
digital surveillance and repression. However, the
Get briefed on the story of the Taliban have proven to be not only proficient, but
week, and developing stories to prolific in the use of social media to shape opinion
watch across the Asia-Pacific. and recruit new soldiers to their cause, using
GET THE NEWSLETTER sophisticated images and messaging to inform their
audience. To unschooled and unsophisticated
viewers, they appear legitimate and appealing. The
international community must ensure that a Taliban government is denied a
platform on major social media networks and applications. In the meantime, it is
imperative that disinformation is countered with a competitive and competing
narrative.

Ultimately, most of the burden must be carried by the new

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Afghan diaspora. Even though Western actors have largely
failed them, they will need to work with human rights and
civil society organizations to put pressure on states advancing
toward cooperation and recognition of the Taliban regime.
Once again, Myanmar provides a noteworthy example, as the
exiled opposition National Unity Government (NUG) contains
not only rightfully-elected lawmakers from the National
League for Democracy, but also ethnic minority groups and Increase Global Market Share
representatives from lesser-known political parties. A similar
Globalization Partners Download
organization operating outside of Afghanistan would serve a
threefold purpose: it would 1) present a unified and coherent
vision for the future; 2) raise awareness and promote solidarity for the Afghan
cause; and 3) provide a viable democratic alternative for those in Afghanistan.

Biden’s irresponsible choice to leave Afghanistan has resulted in a worst-case

scenario, one that was not unexpected. Yet now the West must proactively react
to this new reality. While there may not be a Taliban 2.0, there can be
Containment 2.0, which involves limiting the space, capability, authority of the
regime in Kabul. Measures short of war must be the tools of engagement. The
West must stand its ground on the benefits of a government accountable to
fundamental human rights. The U.S. needs to construct a consensus action plan
agreed upon by its allies as well as the Afghanistan diaspora. The possibility of
the use of military force now would be counterproductive as it would solidify
and strengthen the leadership in Kabul. Defeat in Afghanistan is not absolute
and eventually, there will be local resistance to Taliban control. While Biden may
have thought he was ending American involvement in Afghanistan, the reality
now dictates that engagement efforts must be redoubled.

AUTHORS

GUEST AUTHOR

Mark S. Cogan
Mark S. Cogan is an Associate Professor of Peace and Conflict Studies at Kansai Gaidai
University based in Osaka, Japan and a former communications specialist with the United
Nations.

GUEST AUTHOR

Paul D. Scott
Paul D. Scott is Professor Emeritus, Kansai Gaidai University and is currently teaching at the
Catholic University of Lille, France. He is an Asian specialist and has done extensive work in
Asia.

TAGS

The Debate Politics Afghanistan After US withdrawal fall of Kabul US Withdrawal from Afghanistan

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SEPTEMBER 02, 2021

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