COVID-19 AND ITS IMPACT TO CRIME RATE IN ILIGAN CITY

A Thesis
Presented to
The Faculty of the College of Criminology
St. Peter’s College
Sabayle St., Iligan City

In Partial Fulfillment
Of the Requirements of the Degree of
Bachelor of Science in Criminology

By

CLAIRE JANE MASILIONES

ROSELINE AGBONISA
ALNOR EDRIS

September 2021
 THE PROBLEM

The coronavirus pandemic has spawned enormous changes, from economic distress

and high unemployment to disrupted schooling and tragic public health outcomes. Even

before stay-at-home orders were issued in many places and before there were large numbers

of confirmed infections, there was a massive decrease in reported rates for almost all types of

crime. In the months following the initial lockdowns, as people adjusted to the new normal and

cities started to ease COVID-related restrictions, crime rates in the Philippines continued to

follow very different patterns compared to previous years. However, the magnitude of the

impact has varied by type of crime and there have been notable exceptions: While overall

crime rates are lower than they have been in past years, homicides and physical injuries are

much higher than usual. What accounts for these changes, and what can we learn from them?

At this writing, the pandemic is still raging in the Philippines. As such, political leaders,

law enforcement, as well as individuals will need to account for the changed circumstances as

they make decisions for some time to come. The hope is that these initial findings about the

pandemic’s impact on crime will help inform decisions on allocation of police resources as well

as individual precautions. In ongoing work I am also investigating how these unique events

may help us better understand the factors that impact crime in normal times as well.
 Over the course of just a few weeks during the first few months of 2020, the COVID-19

pandemic radically changed the nature of social interaction and economic activity in all regions

across the world. By the first week of April 2020, 3.9 billion people – more than half the global

population – were under some form of lockdown. In the months that followed, countries

enforced a broad spectrum of restrictions, adjusting and readjusting their response in

accordance with the course of the pandemic. These ongoing changes are affecting all aspects

of life, with crime being no exception. This research brief is aimed at providing initial

observations about the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on four types of crime: homicide,

robbery, theft and burglary. Based on ongoing data collection launched by UNODC in March

2020, trends before and after lockdown measures were introduced are compared in order to

assess whether the measures have had a significant impact on those crimes. The possible

longer-term impact of the emerging global economic crisis on the same forms of crime is also

discussed. The insight provided by the national and regional data analysed in this research

brief shows that the unprecedented changes related to the pandemic differ by type of crime,

by country or region and over time. Given the paucity of the data and the heterogeneity of the

emerging dynamics, this brief is focused on illustrative country and regional examples without

drawing conclusions on the global impact of COVID-19 measures on the crimes in question.

The resulting observations can serve as a starting point for further data analyses and for

informing programme delivery in the field of crime prevention.

 THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK

This study will use theories to explicate the foundation of the research.It will serve as

evidence of the impacts of Crime in the community in the midst of Covid-19 pandemic as a

major objective of the research. The following theory was anchored to the following variables.

PERCEPTUAL DETERRENCE THEORY

According to deterrence theory in criminology, we are affected by both the costs and

rewards that are consequent to our behavior. In other words, we tend to behave based on the

expectation that we will receive some type of reward for doing it while hoping to avoid some

type of punishment for not doing it or doing something else. The idea behind perceptual

deterrence theory is that the perceived certainty, severity, and celerity of punishment are

inversely related to the decisions by would-be offenders to commit crime. The governmental

responses to the COVID-19 pandemic include concerns for both public health and formal

social control. Government leaders asked the public to help mitigate the spread of the virus by

adopting various protective behaviors. Our purpose was to evaluate and explain defiance of

COVID-19 mitigation strategies, drawing from the expanded model of deterrence and

protection motivation theory.

RATIONAL CHOICE THEORY

According to Rational Choice Theory the reason that offenders choose to commit crime

is that they think it will be more rewarding and less costly for them than noncriminal behavior.

Which hold that people freely choose their behaviour and are motivated by the avoidance of

pain and the pursuit of pleasure. This perspective assumes that the crime is a personal

choice, the result of individual decision making process. Defiance of COVID-19 mitigation

guidelines appear to be a combination of rational choice considerations and emotions.

Government and health officials should consider how the public evaluates messages about

taking protective actions to maximize compliance. The rational choice literature draws most

heavily from the deterrence perspective, which emphasizes the perceived certainty and

severity of legal sanctioning as costs of crime (Paternoster, 2010). Sanctions, or costs, are

believed to be more effective in reducing antisocial behavior if they are perceived as more

certain to occur and more severe in their consequences. In recent years, deterrence theory,

and RCT more broadly, have received a great deal of empirical support. Research generally

finds that potential offenders consider the consequences of their actions (Nagin & Paternoster,

1993). Research supports the notion that RCT is a general theory, with its propositions

similarly applying across various crime types, demographics, and criminal propensities

(Loughran et al., 2016)

CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK

The diagram below shows the independent variables of the study which pertains to

crime present in Iligan City in a midst of Covid-19. Specifying Murder,Homicide,Physical

Injury, Rape, Robbery, and Theft. The dependent variable of the study will be the Covid-19

and its impacts to crime rate in Iligan City.

SOCIO-
DEMOGRAPHIC
PROFILE

MURDER

HOMICIDE COVID-19 AND ITS ACTION PLAN

IMPACTS TO CRIME
PHYSICAL INJURY RATE IN ILIGAN CITY

RAPE

ROBBERY

THEFT

Figure I. Schematic Diagram of the Study Showing the interplay of Variables.

STATEMENT OF THE PROBLEM

This study was conducted to determine the crimes associated in covid-19 specifically,

the study sought to answer the following questions:

1. What is socio-demographic sought to answer the following questions:

1.1 Murder

1.2 Homicide

1.3 Physical Injury

1.4 Rape

1.5 Robbery

1.6 Theft

2. What is the impact of Covid -19 to the crime rates in Iligan City?

3. Is there a significant relationship between the crimes and covid-19 pandemic?

HYPOTHESIS

The null hypothesis was formulated and empirically tested.

H: There is no significant relationship between the Covid-19 and its impact to crime rate in

Iligan City.
SIGNIFICANCE OF THE STUDY

The researcher would aimed to come up a study that would present indispensable

information about the impacts of Covid-19 to the level of crime rate in Iligan City.

Further , the researchers would also help the following:

Community: This study helps the people in Iligan to be more Precautious and building

strong, cohesive, vibrant, participatory perception of safety.

Family: This study sought to build up better family relation by giving more information how

distructive disputes can be in the Family.

LGU: The local government unit will be given an additional information regarding with

achieving positive state of reducing and preventing crimes.

SCOPE AND LIMITATIONS

The scope of this study are the selected police station in Iligan City.

DEFINITION OF TERMS

Crime: An action or omission that constitutes an offense that may be prosecuted

by the state and is punishable by law.

Pandemic: A pandemic is a disease outbreak that spreads across countries or

continents. It affects more people and takes more lives than an epidemic.

COVID-19: Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) is an infectious disease caused by

the SARS-CoV-2 virus.

Murder: The unlawful premeditated killing of one human being by another.

Homicide: Homicide is the killing of one person by another. This is a broad term

that includes both legal and illegal killings.

 CHAPTER II

RELATED LITERATURE

Overall, crime fell 23% in the first month of COVID lockdown and has since

remained lower than usual. As examined, crime rates in over 25 large U.S. cities in

2020 and compared those rates to past years. Across almost all of the cities examined,

crime dropped substantially in the first month of the pandemic – with overall crime falling

by over 23% relative to the average of the same time period in the previous 5 years. Both

property and violent crimes dropped 19% on average, although there was substantial

variation within these categories. Moreover, crime rates have remained at significantly

lower levels relative to previous years even after cities eased their COVID restrictions in

late spring (see chart). I was able to observe the marked difference in crime rates since

the start of the COVID-19 pandemic by assembling data on crime incidents, arrests, police

stops, and shootings as well as COVID-19 incidence and mobility information. Detailed

data is available at citycrimestats.com. 

The overall drop in crime corresponds with a drop in the population’s mobility. Stay-

at-home orders and business closures have meant that people are not driving, shopping,

or walking around on the streets as much they normally would. Notably, our data show

that the crime drop actually begins 10-14 days prior to the stay-at-home orders and is
almost coincident with the mobility drop (these data come from individuals who have

turned on Location History for their Google Account and use a mobile device). This is

likely due to the fact that there was considerable media coverage prior to stay-at-home

orders as well as some other less restrictive orders already in place. The fact that the drop

in crime coincided so closely with the drop in mobility suggests that the two are

connected. One reason why the easing of COVID-related restrictions appears to have had

limited impact on crime rates is due to the fact that mobility in cities remained subdued

even as the restrictions were lifted. While mobility picked back up from the lows seen in

March 2020, it remained well below pre-COVID levels for the rest of the year as people

were still unable to return to their normal routines. 

Home burglaries dropped while commercial burglaries and car thefts rose. While it is

often difficult to identify causes of crime, the discrepancy in types of burglaries suggests

that reduced mobility had a pronounced effect on the types of crime people were

committing. As the pandemic hit, people began spending far more time at home and one

result of this is a large 24% decline in residential burglaries. With people at home, that

also meant there were fewer eyes on non-residential buildings, which led to an increase in

those burglaries – by around 38% on average across the cities examined. Similarly,

people using their cars far less during the pandemic than they normally would has meant
that cars are left parked and unattended longer and car thefts have increased. In

Philadelphia, for instance, the car theft rate after the pandemic hit was over 2.5 times as

high as before. 

Drug crimes dropped the most — by 65% — at the pandemic onset and fell again

during the summer. Drug crimes saw the biggest decline of any category at the onset of

the pandemic in almost all cities for which I have data – 65% on average. However, the

fact that fewer drug crimes are reported does not necessarily mean that there are fewer

people engaged in drug-related activity. Unlike most other crimes, drug crimes are often

reported directly by police, rather than citizen reports to police, and there is evidence that

police presence and enforcement of certain laws decreased during the pandemic onset.

For example, police in Philadelphia stopped low-level arrests at the beginning of the

pandemic to prevent further overcrowding in jails. While drug crime reports did start to

revert at the end of spring, there appears to have been a second drop at the start of

summer coinciding with the George Floyd Protests, which possibly reflects a change in the

policing of these crimes.

The drop in overall crime rates masks the rise in the rate of some violent crime

beginning in the summer of 2020. There were substantial increases in homicides and

shootings beginning in the summer of 2020, but it is not possible to tell whether this is due
to the pandemic or other factors. The start of this spike in some violent crimes coincided

with the protests associated with the police killing of George Floyd and continued through

the summer and into the fall. This time period was also shortly after lockdowns ended in

many places. However, it is very difficult to pinpoint the cause of the spikes in homicides

and shootings. For one thing, any theory to explain this pattern would also have to

account for the fact that other violent crimes, like robberies, were still down during this

period. In large cities, an appreciable share of homicides and shootings are related to

drugs or gangs and those likely to be involved in these crimes may not be deterred by

stay-at-home orders or the prospect of disease. The data show that rates of homicides

and shootings, unlike other crimes, were initially unresponsive to COVID-19. Changes to

the status quo in certain types of crimes that are associated with shootings and homicides

could have led to turf wars that may explain some of the phenomenon of higher violent

crime rates. This could also have been impacted by changes in policing or various

changes brought on by the pandemic – but more research is needed to come to a firmer

conclusion.

These changes in crime rates are likely not just due to changes in reporting

rates. Two separate strands of evidence suggest that much of the crime change is not

simply due to changes in reporting rates. First, there is not a large change in the share of
crime reported by police versus the public in the two cities that report this data. If the

pandemic were mainly changing reporting behavior, one would not expect the pandemic to

impact reporting behavior for police in the same way it would impact reporting behavior for

the general public. Thus the fact that the shares of reporting by both groups remain largely

unchanged would suggest that they likely reflect changes in underlying crime. Second, in

Philadelphia there was evidence of a drop in crime that varied as a function of distance

from closed bars for simple assaults, robberies, and thefts — crimes that are more likely to

happen near bars when the businesses are open, attracting customers and with alcohol

playing a role in aggressive behavior. However, the same relationship was not found for

drug crimes, which are unlikely to be impacted by distance from closed bars. This contrast

suggests that a large portion of the change in reports reflects a real change in crime, and

not just a change in reporting rates.

With crime declining at such a rapid rate and many of the frequently attributed factors

influencing crime remaining stable or even increasing or decreasing in the opposite

direction of what many believe drives crime, many criminological theories appear to be

struggling to explain the abrupt and sweeping change. We believe that the changes in the

scope and form of crime during the COVID-19 crisis will serve as a test bed for the

numerous theories attempting to explain the origins of criminal behavior. Finally, this
naturally occurring experiment will increase our understanding of crime and human

behavior in ways that no other event has ever done throughout the age of widespread

availability of criminological data.

As such, we suggest that the single most significant factor contributing to the

dramatic decline in crime rates during the COVID-19 pandemic is the legal stay-at-home

orders (i.e., lock-down, shelter-in-place) enacted to impede the virus's transmission

through social distancing. Most states issued stay-at-home orders, which legally obliged

residents to remain in their homes except for authorized activities. These activities

frequently include obtaining medical attention, acquiring food and other basic supplies,

banking, and other such activities. The decrees either blocked huge swathes of the

economy altogether or effectively shuttered them, affecting schools, private social

gatherings, religious activity, and travel, among other things. In short, these instructions

affected the daily lives of entire communities and were the single variable that rapidly

altered just days before global crime dropped by double digits. As such, we believe that the

Environmental Criminology suite of perspectives, which includes Rational Choice (C. & F.

et al. l) and Routine Activity (C. H. et. al. 2012), will emerge as frontrunners in

comprehending crime changes during COVID-19 and providing insight into future crime

prevention efforts.
 The concept of this literature provides evidence among researchers that there are existing

studies with preventive action plans among the existing problems in the midst of Covid-19

pandemic. It is the utmost reason why the proponents pursue the study and to assess the

effectiveness of those preventive measures in Iligan City.

RELATED STUDIES

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has had tremendous and

extensive impacts on the people’s daily activities. In Chicago, the numbers of crime fell

considerably. This work aims to investigate the impacts that COVID-19 has had on the

spatial and temporal patterns of crime in Chicago through spatial and temporal crime

analyses approaches. The Seasonal-Trend decomposition procedure based on Loess

(STL) was used to identify the temporal trends of different crimes, detect the outliers of

crime events, and examine the periodic variations of crime distributions. The results

showed a certain phase pattern in the trend components of assault, battery, fraud, and

theft. The largest outlier occurred on 31 May 2020 in the remainder components of

burglary, criminal damage, and robbery. The spatial point pattern test (SPPT) was used to

detect the similarity between the spatial distribution patterns of crime in 2020 and those in

2019, 2018, 2017, and 2016, and to analyze the local changes in crime on a micro scale. It
was found that the distributions of crime significantly changed in 2020 and local changes in

theft, battery, burglary, and fraud displayed an aggregative cluster downtown. The results

all claim that spatial and temporal patterns of crime changed significantly affected by

COVID-19 in Chicago, and they offer constructive suggestions for local police departments

or authorities to allocate their available resources in response to crime.

The recent coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has had widespread and

unprecedented impacts on people’s daily lives, economic development, politics, and social

harmony. To reduce the transmission of the virus among people, stay-at-home orders and

social distancing guidelines have been issued in many countries, changing the social

environment of criminal activity. Thus, the COVID-19 pandemic had an impact on crimes.

Overall crimes have dropped sharply during the COVID-19 pandemic . The

relationship between the COVID-19 pandemic and crimes has varied in terms of types of

crimes . It was found that the social distancing guidelines have a statistically significant

impact on certain types of crimes: some crimes may decrease (e.g., burglary and robbery),

and some crimes may increase (e.g., domestic violence) . It has been shown that robbery,

shoplifting, theft, and battery have dropped during the COVID-19 pandemic in Los

Angeles, while stolen vehicles, burglaries, assault with deadly weapons, intimate partner
violence, and homicide have not been significantly affected . One study also showed that

most types of fraud have shown a significant increase, and the impact on older people has

been more significant than that on younger people . Although people have altered their

routine activities during the COVID-19 pandemic, their cyber routines were not radically

altered; thus, cyber victimization rates have not changed . Recent studies have analyzed

the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on different types of crimes. However, the impact of

the COVID-19 pandemic on the spatial and temporal distributions of crimes in a city is not

well understood. Additionally, existing studies have mainly studied the impacts of the

COVID-19 pandemic on crimes at the whole-city scale, and analysis of its impact on

crimes at a relatively micro scale is rare. To our knowledge, only Campedelli et al.

analyzed the impact of public interventions on several crimes at a relatively micro scale

(community-wise) by the Structural Bayesian Time-Series during the COVID-19.

This work is a case study to investigate the impacts that COVID-19 has had on the

spatial and temporal patterns of crime in Chicago through spatial and temporal crime

analyses approaches. Specifically, we analyzed the temporal pattern changes of different

crimes at three temporal dimensions through the Seasonal-Trend decomposition

procedure based on Loess (STL). Then, we explored the spatial pattern changes of
different crimes in 2020 compared with 2019 by using the spatial point pattern test (SPPT)

and utilized the local Moran’s I to identify local clusters and local spatial outliers.

On 11 March 2020, the World Health Organization declared COVID-19 to be a public

health emergency of global concern. Following the WHO declaration, national and local

authorities moved to impose a range of measures to slow the spread of the virus (‘flatten

the curve’) and alleviate strain on health care systems. Collectively referred to as

‘lockdown’ measures in most countries, regulations have included some combination of

stay-at-home orders, travel bans, closures of schools and places of entertainment and

restrictions on public and private gatherings. Strategies aimed at limiting the mobility of the

entire population through measures that require or recommend that residents do not leave

the house except for ‘essential’ activities arguably were among the most intrusive policies,

with wide-ranging collateral effects on society, the economy and human rights. Spatial

mobility data suggest that, at the peak of the so-called lockdown—in late March and April

2020—daily movements related to retail and recreation had declined by over 80% in many

countries in Europe and Latin America.

One of the earliest studies with perhaps the most striking results was by Shayegh and

Malpede (2020), which identified an overall drop in crime in San Francisco of 43% and
Oakland of about 50% following city issuance of some of the most restrictive and early

stay-at-home orders in the US, beginning March 16th , 2020 and the two weeks after.

Surprisingly, significant results are also clearly seen when examining specific crimes

against retailers in crime in Los Angeles. Pietrawska, Aurand, and Palmer (2020) found a

64% increase in retail burglary, while city-wide burglary rates were down 10%. Similarly,

Pietrawska, Aurand, and Palmer (2020b) identified a five-week change in crimes occurring

at restaurants in Chicago, a 74% reduction, while city-wide crime declined 35%. Continuing

their study of crime rates in the pandemic outside of a retail focus, Pietrawska, Aurand,

and Palmer (2020) compared crimes against persons and crimes against property in four

cities for ten weeks, finding sharp variations from week to week and within different crime

types.

Another early study by Ashby (2020) of eight large US cities during the first few weeks of

the crisis (January to March 23rd—before some states and areas implemented stay-at-

home orders) found disparate impacts by crime type and location. For example, burglary

declined in Austin, Los Angeles, Memphis, and Scan Francisco, but not in Louisville or

Boston. Conversely, serious assaults in public declined in Austin, Los Angeles, and

Louisville, but not other cities.

 Several researchers have made initial examinations into how crime rates have

fluctuated in the advent of COVID-19. The results have been mixed, to say the least,

especially when comparing broad categories of crime across different cities and with

different methods and periods of study. However, these initial academic studies are

intrinsically valuable and deserve to be mentioned here.

Felson, Jiang, and Xu (2020) examined burglary in Detroit during three periods,

representing data before stay-at-home orders were in place and two periods under orders

(March 10th to March 23rd and March 24th to March 31st). Their findings indicated an

overall 32% decline in burglary, with the most substantial change in the third period.

However, the decline was more significant in block groups of higher residential parcels

than in mix-use land areas.

Campedelli et al. (2020) analyzed crime in Los Angeles in two time periods (the first

ending March 16th and the second ending March 28th) using Bayesian structural time-

series models to estimate what crime would have been if the COVID-19 pandemic had not

occurred. Comparing the actual crime data against the estimated ‘sans-pandemic’ data,

the first model found an overall crime reduction of 5.6% during the pandemic. Likewise, the

second model (ending March 28th) showed a 15% reduction. Specifically, researchers

found that overall crime rates significantly decreased, particularly when referencing
robbery (−24%), shoplifting (−14%), theft (−21%), and battery (−11%). However, burglary,

domestic violence, stolen vehicles, and homicide remained statically unchanged.

While not explicitly measuring crime rates, studies of calls for police service can

function as an indirect measure of crime in a given area. Early studies of calls for service

during the pandemic present mixed results. Lum, Maupin, and Stoltz (2020) found that

57% of 1000 agencies surveyed in the United States and Canada reported a reduction in

calls for service in March of 2020. Ashby (2020), on the other hand, found no discernible

difference in forecasted calls for service in 10 large US cities between the first identified

cases of COVID-19 in the US throughout early March. However, Ashby found that once

stay-at-home orders were implemented, calls for service did decline, although not evenly

across call types or cities. In another study of police calls for service, Mohler et al. (2020)

examined calls in Los Angeles and Indianapolis between January and mid-April; they

concluded there was some impact on police calls for service but not across all crime types

or places.

Internationally, Swedish researchers Gerell, Kardell, and Kindgren (2020) examined

crime during the five weeks after government restrictions on activities began, observing an

8.8% total drop in reported crime despite the country’s somewhat lax response (when

compared to other countries’ policies on restricting the public’s movement). Specifically,

the researchers found residential burglary fell by 23%, commercial burglary declined

12.7%, and instances of pick-pocketing were reduced by a staggering 61% —however,

there was little change in robberies or narcotics crime. In Australia, Payne and Morgan

(2020) studied crime in March, finding assaults, sexual violations, and domestic violence

were not significantly different from what was predicted under ‘normal’ conditions at the

lower end of the confidence interval. They cautioned against early conclusions based on

this data as the government orders came only a few weeks into the study.

These initial reports indicate that crime rates have indeed changed, but unequally

across different categories, types, places, and timeframes. Among crime researchers, the

featured question of this pandemic will be, “Why have crime rates fallen so dramatically?”

The corollary is, “What can be learned from this experience to leverage crime reduction in

the future?” The data and opportunities before every criminologist will provide near-endless

research opportunities at levels never before possible, and every effort should be made to

capture data and promote the study of crime. This research note aims to identify and

encourage these lines of inquiry, to urge researchers to dive deeply into the data made

available from the pandemic, and to provide the impetus for not only discerning why crime

fell but also for how to pragmatically utilize this knowledge after the world emerges from

seclusion.
 CHAPTER III

RESEARCH METHODS

This chapter will presents the research design, respondents and sampling procedure,

research instruments and its validity, procedures for data collection, data analysis procedure,

and statistical treatment of data.

RESEARCH DESIGN

This study will use the quantitative study to determine the Covid-19 and its impact to

crime rate in Iligan City. Descriptive comparative method will likewise be used in this study in

determining the Murder, Homicide, Physical Injury, Robbery, theft, Rape. A self-formulated

questionnaire will be used in gathering data from the respondents.

RESPONDENTS AND SAMPLING PROCEDURE

 The respondents of this study will be the police officers assigned in crime rate data in

Iligan City.

RESEARCH INSTRUMENT AND VALIDITY

A self-formulated survey questionnaire validated by the adviser will be used as its main

data gathering instrument.

DATA GATHERING PROCEDURES

Prior to contact with the respondents, a letter asking for permission from the Dean of the

Criminology department will be presented to the police officers incharge of the Crime Rate

data in selected police station in Iligan City which are the subject of this study will be

personally delivered to have access to the necessary data of the identified

respondents.Permission will also be acquired from the respondents are originally created in

English which will be translated in vernacular words if necessary.

STATISTICAL TREATMENT

The following statistical tools were used in the study:

For problem 1, the frequency and percentage were used to describe the socio-demographic

profile.

For Problem 2, the mean and the standard deviation were used to analyse the data.

For problem 3, the Chi-square test was used to describe the relationship of the variables.

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