OPTIMUM POLICY CONTROL

⦁ A statistical control chart may be used to monitor the optimum solution obtained from a
decision model.
⦁ These models are usually formulated at a point in time for a specific set of input parameters.
A solution derived from a decision model will be optimal only as long as the input parameters
retain the values initially established.
⦁ It will be illustrated for the case where an optimum service factor has been determined for a
maintenance situation. Once the service factor resulting in a minimum-cost operation has been
established, it might be desirable to implement a control model for detecting the effects of a shift in
the arrival rate or the service rate or both.This may be accomplished by constructing a control chart
for the number of machines not running.
⦁ As an example of the application of control charts in waiting-line operations, consider a one
worker/N machine situation. Suppose that 20 automatic machines are to be run by one worker, and
that the minimum-cost service factor is found to be 0.03. It is assumed that the machines require
service at randomly distributed times, that the service times are distributed exponentially, and that
machines are serviced on a first-come, first-served basis. The probability of n machines in the
queue and in service (not running) is given by

● Values for 𝑷ₙ are given in column C of Table 6 for 0 ≤ n ≤ N. The first entry is found by
dividing the first entry in column B by 2.30005387. The second results from dividing the
second entry in column B by the same value, and so on. The results for 𝑷ₙ are plotted in
Figure 7. The distribution of n is seen to be extremely skewed, being strictly convex. Unlike
some control chart applications, the distribution of the variable to be controlled is known. It
may be used to determine the control limits.
● Because
the probability
that all
machines are running is approximately 0.435, the lower control limit is obviously 0. The
upper control limit is all that needs to be determined, because the variable n can go out of
control only at the top.Thus, the entire critical range will be at the upper end of the
distribution. It will be desirable to set this limit so that it will not be violated too frequently.
Because n is an integer, the magnitude of the critical range can be observed as a function of
n from column D in Table 6. If six idle machines are chosen as a point in control and seven is
a point out of control, the probability of designating the system out of control when it is
really in control is

● Therefore, a control limit set 6.5 should be satisfactory. The control chart applied to a
period of operation might appear as is Figure 8. It can be concluded that the service factor
has not changed during this period of observation.
● For the application of this control model to be valid, two conditions must be met. First, the
observation must be made at random times. Second, the observations must be spaced far
enough apart, so that the results are independent.
● For example, if the service time averages 5 minutes and if six machines are idle in an
observation, then an observation taken 10 minutes later would probably indicate at least
four idle machines. The readings should be far enough apart for a waiting line to be
dissipated.
● To ensure both randomness and spacing, all numbers from 45 to 90 could be taken from a
random number table with their order preserved: numbers from 00 to 44 and from 91 to 99
would be dropped.These numbers can then be used to space the observations. This would
yield an average of eight random observations per day with a minimum spacing of 45
minutes and a maximum spacing of 90 minutes.
● If the control chart indicates that n is no longer in control, corrective action must be taken.
● Specific items that might be studied are the policy of preventive maintenance, the age of the
machines, the capability of the operator, or material characteristics.
● Once the assignable cause for the out-of-control condition is located, it may be corrected so
that the optimal operating condition may be restored.