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IFAC PapersOnLine 52-13 (2019) 2674–2679

Taxation and revenues of central places as the regulator of available human

resources in manufacturing - related to the bid rent curve
Samo Drobne1, Perta Janež2, Marija Bogataj1,2 , Bogataj David3
1
University of Ljubljana, 2Institute INRISK, Slovenia & 3University of Padua,
Department of Management and Engineering, Italy
1
samo.drobne@fgg.uni-lj.si; 2petra.janez1@gmail.com; 1,2marija.bogataj@guest.arnes.si;
3
david.bogataj@unipd.it

Abstract: Ageing and shrinking of the European population will decrease the availability of human
resources in manufacturing. Therefore, the wage policy will operate in an increasingly sensitive
environment, which will need to be well understood and able to fast respond to its changes. To
understand and forecast the attractiveness of manufacture companies and abilities to attract additional
workers, it is not enough to study wage policy independently, but also to know the real estate market
and the distance of areas from where we can attract new workers. It means, therefore, wage policy
should be tied to the location, real estate market and fiscal policy of a city in which the company and the
real estate market are in order to achieve the optimum effect in finding new employees. In the paper, we
show how useful it is to analyse the bid rent curve of the housing market at the central places through
the changes of parameters in a gravity model. In such a model, the municipalities are considered as the
regional centres, where different regional centres compete for new workers. Namely, the municipalities
represent essential cells, competing with the other municipalities in the total economic area. A
successful fiscal policy leads regions, and local communities along the path of balanced and
environmentally friendly long-term growth or a steady decline analysed through the bid rent curves, but
also influence the availability of human resources. The paper discusses the impact of changes in the
wages, property taxes and municipal revenues on the bid rent curve and attractiveness for migrants.
Therefore, the indicators evaluated through the changes of parameters in a gravity model, which are
subject of the changed wages and taxation policy, gives proper forecasting of the future dynamics. From
all these interactions the inflow of new workers can be forecasted, and the appropriate wage policy can
be chosen as the regulator of available human resources. © 2019 IFAC
© 2019, IFAC (International Federation of Automatic Control) Hosting by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Keywords: Human resources, wages, taxation, Bid rent curve, municipal revenue, spatial interaction
model, internal migration

factors influence the real estate market which again has an

1. INTRODUCTION
The European population is ageing. According to the Ageing
Report 2018 (Directorate-General for Economic and
Financial Affairs, 2018). European workforce will shrink
for 14 million workers in the next half-century. Ageing and
shrinking will decrease the availability of human resources
in manufacturing (Žnidaršič, Dimovski, 2009; Grah et al.,
2018). Therefore, the wage policy will operate in an
increasingly sensitive environment, which will need to be
well understood and able to fast respond to its changes
(Temeljotov Salaj et al., 2015, 2018, Grum, 2017, Bjørberg
et al., 2017, Nahtigal and Grum, 2015, Boge et al., 2018).
To understand and forecast the attractiveness of
manufacturing companies and abilities to attract additional
workers, it is not enough study of an optimal wage policy,
but also to know other factors which influence attractiveness
of location to attract new human resources and stickiness to
retain them (Boge et al., 2018, 2019; Boge and Temeljotov
Salaj, 2017). Therefore also other factors which influence
migration and commuting flows should be considered. These
2405-8963 © 2019, IFAC (International Federation of Automatic Control) Hosting by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Peer review under responsibility of International Federation of Automatic Control.
10.1016/j.ifacol.2019.11.611
impact on the attractiveness for human resources. It means,
therefore, wage policy should be tied to the location, real
estate market and fiscal policy of a city in which the
company and the real estate market are in order to achieve
the optimum effect in finding new employees. Therefore, our
aim is to show how useful it is to analyse the bid rent curve
of the housing market at the central places through the
changes of parameters in a gravity model. In such a model
the municipalities with the location of companies, looking
for new human resources, are considered as the regional
centres. The regional centres compete with one another to
attract new workers. Namely, the municipalities represent
essential cells, competing with the other municipalities in the
total economic area.
The pressing challenge of Slovenia and other EU states is
to embark on the path of smart, sustainable and inclusive
growth, to develop age-friendly urban environment and
invest in the infrastructure and supply networks that will
transform European cities to smart cities, creating jobs,
wellbeing for older inhabitants who need a help of others,
and enhancing competitiveness. In responding to this task,
 Samo Drobne et al. / IFAC PapersOnLine 52-13 (2019) 2674–2679
Europe faces large-scale, long-term investment needs, where
housing and infrastructure investments represent a major
part of the gross fixed capital formation. To support required
policies and for evaluation of potential investments the
general theory of land rent as a regulator of urban growth
should be reconsidered, the behaviour of the bid rent curve
should be better analysed. The impact of investments, as
well as taxation on the monopoly or oligopoly position of
central places, should be studied, and the taxation and
investment decision should base on the models of
attractiveness, stickiness and bid rent curve equilibrium
analysis. The bid rent theory is the basic theory in the social
geography for supporting urban studies, developed by
Alonso (1964).
Figure.1. Von Thünen’ model of the use of agricultural land
It bases on the von Thünnen agricultural economics on the
marginal productivity (fig.1), written in a mathematically
rigorous principles (see edition 1910) and on one of the most
important theoretic contributions to the Chicago School,
named “Burgess Zones”, describing concentric circles of
differing land use radiating from a cities’ central business
district (CBD), which became a standard concept in urban
demography. The theory refers to how the market price and
demand for real estate decrease as the distance from the
CBD increases. It states that different land users will
compete with one another for land close to the city centre.
Alonso was looking for a general market balance in urban
land use, similar to Von Thünen’s balance in agriculture.
According to this theory, households will select a location
where their utility is maximum, that is, the location where
the usefulness curve touches the price curve. Alonso (1964)
similarly extends the housing concept to determine the
location of an industry and market areas.
According to his game theory approach, equilibrium is
supposed to be achieved when no user of the plot will be
able to achieve greater utility or profitability by moving to
another location or by buying more or less land.
Muth (1969) and Mills (1972), extended Alonso’s model
by combining land and capital in utility or profitability
267
function influencing the final bid rent curve. This extension
made it possible to analyze the housing rent, transaction
prices and capacity of facilities. Nice simplification is given
by McDonald & McMillen (2007, p. 107).
As the slope of the bid rent curve determines accessibility
to workplaces and other activities in a space (i.e. commuting
costs as a complementary costs of the land use) and taxation
additionally influence the slope as presented in Bogataj and
Bogataj (1995) the impact of differences in the commuting
costs and taxation can also be observed through the gravity
model.
Figure 2. Urban land rent depending on the distance from
the CBD in Alonso’s bid rent theory, creating bid rent curve
(bold).
2. THE IMPACT OF TAXATION ON THE SLOPE OF
THE BID RENT CURVE
With fiscal policy, we can influence the demand and the bid
rent slope (Bogataj and Bogataj, 1995), mostly because of
the changed flows of migrants (Bahl, Martinez-Vazques and
Youngman, 2010). For example, local communities, with
their economic power, are attracting migrants and at the
same time retaining existing inhabitants. Economic power,
among other things, is also facilitated by the revenues of
municipalities from which public services and investments
in the social infrastructure are financed. Thus, the net result
of the migration depends also on real estate taxes and the
level of public services that people are asking. Therefore,
the attractiveness of municipalities can be analyzed through
demographic trends. Dealing with permanent relocations
between municipalities we can also study the changes in the
bid rent curve of their central places. The migration is
influenced by the indicators of the location of residence as
well as the indicators at the location of possible immigration.
Municipalities with different mechanisms influence the
development of their area, and consequently further
demographic trends. Empirical research enables the advance
knowledge, foresight and forecasting direction of the effects
of demographic trends (Janež, Bogataj, Drobne, 2016).
George (1948) included in his theory the impact of the
relocation of the population to the land rent. He proved that
one of the reasons for the increase in land rent was also an Estate Tax Act - ZDavNepr and the generalized market
increase in the population due to immigration which was values of real estate, estimated value based on the mass
studied on the bases of developed asymmetric gravity model appraisal of real estate (GURS). For estimates based on the
by Janež, Bogataj, and Drobne (2018). Revenues from land mass appraisal we took the latest available data from 2017,
tax are supposed to be used in such a way that all land users other data are from 2015. Calibration of the model of
will benefit from it through the services for residents being migration was carried out for 2015 when there were 212
financed from these sources. municipalities in Slovenia; the register of municipalities is
The model derived here is based on the derivation of the available at SORS. Based on the approach described in
normalised NE_SIM model and proves of Janež, Bogataj, Janež, Bogataj, and Drobne (2016), we first calibrated the
and Drobne (2016, 2018), who had already proved, that the expanded spatial interaction model of inter-municipal
inter-municipal migration and commuting in Slovenia is migrations in Slovenia for 2015.
supposed to be influenced, among other factors, by the The approach used is derived from the previous simple
taxation policy and revenues of municipalities. The proofs model of Cesario (1973, 1974), first upgraded by Bogataj
are based on the data for the year 2011. Based on the data and Drobne (2005) and improved by Drobne in Bogataj,
for the year 2015 the authors here demonstrate the influence (2011), by adding the theory of taxation and deriving the
of land rent taxation, which consequently influences the size influence of taxation on the coefficients in the model of
of the collected revenues of the municipalities and Drobne and Bogataj (2011, Janež et al., 2016, 2018 and
possibility of investments in the social infrastructure, on the Janež, 2017). The general form of the spatial interaction
slope of bid rent curve. From this, it follows that it is model used here is:
important for municipalities to plan carefully the increase in
net migration flows, which will increase the bid rent curve
values and, consequently, their revenues from the taxation of
(1a)
real estate and possibilities to invest in the municipality’s
infrastructure. Similarly, already Chun (1996) claims that Regarding the significance of the coefficients in (1a), we
migration is a means of achieving economic efficiency and have derived the following model
equity, but did not present the advantages of the gravity
models to find the shape of the bid rent curve.
With the approach described in Janež, Bogataj and Drobne
(2016, 2018), the aim of our research is to calibrate the
general interaction model of migrations between the
municipalities of Slovenia for 2015, after the change of
(1b)
taxation on the basis of the provisions in the repealed Real
Estate Tax Act (ZDavNepr, Official Gazette of the Republic In (1a) we denoted the yearly migration flow from the
of Slovenia, No. 101/2013 and 22/2014 - decree) and show municipality to the municipality , is proportional
the approach how to forecast the changes of the shape of the constant, is the coefficient of the time distance from
bid rent curve. the central business district (CBD) of the municipality i to
To analyze the simultaneous impact of the change in the the CBD of the municipality j relative to the average in
taxation of real estate and the time distance on the constant Slovenia , and in the model (1a) are the
net internal migration (stability of flows), we used the coefficient of the studied indicators of in origin and
primary data obtained from Statistical Office of the
destination .
Republic of Slovenia (SORS). Data on migration between
These coefficients are derived as the value in the
municipalities of Slovenia were collected from the Central
municipality divided by the average of Slovenia; the
Population Register (CRP). At SORS we obtained data on coefficients with the required significance are written in (1b)
the number of inhabitants, the number of registered and described in table 1. The sources are available from the
unemployed persons, average gross personal income and the Statistical Office of Republic of Slovenia (SORS,
number of dwellings in the municipality. Data on revenues www.stat.si/statweb ) and Ministry of Finances (MFRS,
of municipalities were obtained at the Ministry of Finance of http://www.mf.gov.si ).
the Republic of Slovenia (MFRS). Data on the average price
of dwellings and the estimated value based on the mass Table 1. The notation of g in the model (1b), the definition and
appraisal of real estate in the municipality were obtained at the sources
the Surveying and Mapping Authority of the Republic of Description Source
Slovenia (GURS). We summarized the time travel through
the fastest route with a car between centres of municipalities, Time distance from CBD of to CBD of Own
by the procedure described by Drobne and Bogataj (2017).
Number of inhabitants in the municipality SORS
In order to calculate the revenues of municipalities in the
case of the introduction of a new property taxation, we The rate of unemployment in the SORS
applied the tax rates from the provisions in the repealed Real municipality
Gross income per capita in the municipality SORS
 Urban land rent in a given time distance GURS

Municipality income per capita MFRS

Number of dwellings in the municipality SORS

The powers (the regression coefficients , and
linearised model present:
α( )------- the impact of the indicator in the destination
------- the power of the time distance;
γ( )-------the impact of the indicator in origin.
The model (1b) was calibrated by Microsoft Excel 2016.
The taxes have been calculated from the basic data in the
database of the Register of the real estate of Slovenia and
calculated by SPSS.
In the case that is the yearly urban rent in a certain
location, is the interest rate, and is the yearly tax on the
basic value of the real estate V, then we can write (Janež,
Bogataj in Drobne, 2016):
where is the capitalisation rate (developed from the
basic approach of McDonald in McMillen, 2011).
From (1b) and (2) the following equation has been derived
for the attractiveness of the central place after the changed
taxation ( if the attractiveness during
known:
of the (4)
The significance of the values of all written exponents are
very high. All p-values were lower than 0.005.
3.2 The impact of the changed taxation on the bid
rent curve of a chosen municipality
Let us now turn our attention back to the bid rent curve. The
impact of taxation on the bid rent was explained in Bogataj
and Bogataj (1995) and drown in Bogataj (2000), as given in
Figure 3.We see that a household will tend to move to
another location if the change of his rent curve slope is
higher or lower from the neighbor’s activity or housing
slope. If the taxes will increase the gross value by 10%, the
household whose slope is now like tg o =0.5 will increase
to tg 1 =0.55.At the same time, the changed taxation will
(2) move the activities line up or down if the attractiveness is
increasing or decreasing respectively.
is

(3) The slopes: V1/a=tg 1; Vo/a=tg o

In (3) is the percentage of people who lives in j,
is the percentage of the change of the indicator
in , while is the percentage of the change
gross value of the indicator in , due to changed taxation.
present the time of observation, , and forecasting,
. In a similar way, we can develop the model for
forecasting the expected flows from the origin i.
3. THE RESULTS
3.1 The results of the gravity model
Figure 3. The change of slope of the gross urban land rent
depending on the distance from the CBD in case of
changing taxation so that the gross value is equal to the
previous value Vo multiplied by (1+vj /100), which means
that it increases relatively for vj /100.
Let us assume that in our considered municipality M,
where yearly migration is equal to 1000 new residents and
where is leaving pM= 0.7% of all inhabitants of Slovenia, the
coefficients of the indicators which influence the
attractiveness of the municipality are the following:

The model (4) is a calibrated model of internal migration

between the municipalities of Slovenia in the year 2015, in
which we observed 44,944 migration interactions. The
adjusted R2 of the regression model is 37%. The values of
the coefficients in the model (4) are very low (significant
at <0.0001), and F statistics are very high (
Let us assume that the municipality intends to raise the
):
yearly rent tax from 7% to 14% which would increase the
municipality’s real estate taxes for 6.5% regarding the
average in the state and the municipality income per capita
for 5%. How will it influence the attractiveness of
municipality indicated in the number of newcomers?
Following the equation three at a given value in (4) and (5)
we can write:
= 0.9982 0.9774= 0.9757
It means that an increase of taxation and revenues for
investments in the municipal infrastructure and services,
when the other municipalities do not change the taxation,
would decrease the migration flow for 2.4% (=1-0.9757). By
adding the impact of the outflow which can be derived from
equation 1b by summation over j on the same way as for (3),
we can see, what are the changes of the monopoly urban
land rent which moves the equilibrium bid rent curve up or
down.
The model derived here is dterministic. To determine the
stability and variations of bid rent curve we have to consider
also the stochastic behaviour of this curve, as presented by
Martínez and Henríquez (2003), often being influenced by
many subjective factors, therefore sometimes also fuzzy
approach to the evaluation of parameters is suggested, like
presented by Bogataj, Tuljak-Suban, and Drobne (2011),
where the fuzzy set theory was also facilitated.
4. CONCLUSIONS AND GUIDELINES FOR
FURTHER WORK
To embark on the path of smart, sustainable and inclusive
growth, to develop age-friendly urban environment and
invest in the infrastructure and supply networks that will
transform European cities to smart cities, creating jobs,
wellbeing for older inhabitants who need a help of others,
and enhancing competitiveness, Europe faces large-scale,
long-term investment needs, where housing and
infrastructure investments represent a major part of the gross
fixed capital formation, but influence also attractiveness and
stickiness of municipalities, which can be studied on the
bases of gravity models. To support required policies and for
evaluation of potential investments, the general theory of
land rent as a regulator of urban growth should be
reconsidered. Recent experience in several European
countries has clearly and painfully shown that the housing
market volatility has a substantial impact on financial flows,
supply chains and migration in the society, on a wealth of
households, and national and international financial systems
as collateral for mortgage financing. This volatility
influences the investments in the development, maintenance,
and redevelopment of urban areas, in public utilities,
transport, and ICT infrastructure, and makes institutional
investors reluctant to invest in city infrastructures due to the
low predictability of long-term cash flows, needed for asset
liability matching.
Housing expenditure constitutes nearly one-third of the
household's income, and housing wealth makes more than
half of the median household's net worth in Europe. The
macro implications of housing dynamics are significant,
following one of the largest residential real estate boom-and-
busts and the subsequent recession which additionally
disclosed the specific problems of the ageing European
societies and their dependence on the stable housing market.
Therefore the crucial question in today’s European economy
is: ”How to leverage the European wealth and facilitate the
flows to achieve well-being for all generations (job
opportunities for the young and proper care for seniors)”?
The answer is in the development of a firm understanding of
the interaction between the attractiveness of a municipality
in the set of competitive local areas. The theory can be
developed based on gravity approaches. We found that the p-
values of the estimates of parameters in our model as the
level of marginal significance are all lower than 0.005. It
helps to improve further a general theory of land rent in the
post-industrial age, where the attractiveness depends on the
age structure of inhabitants, and therefore also the bid rent
curve is dependent on the age structure. Because the IC
technology is improving, the distances between homes and
workplaces are becoming less and less costly. Therefore the
value of the potential - the power of the time distance
is approximate to 0. Consequently the relationship between
the exponents should be monitored when developing new
technologies and consequently the dynamic control is
needed. Smart technology influence social issues and
parameters, evaluated in our model (Roblek et al., 2019;
Božič and Dimovski, 2019). We have evaluated the values
α(g) - the impact of the indicator in the destination; -
the power of the time distance, and γ(g) - the impact of the
indicator in the origin for Slovenia, but it is easy to find
these values for any region or other spatial areas, based on
the national data, available at related statistical and financial
office.
For further planning and forecasting, the model should be
extended to the daily commuting, which also can use the
gravity approach. Based on the models outlined here and
even extended to the gravity models of daily commuting and
on the interaction of them like presented here, the decision
support systems could be provided to the municipalities
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