Lesson 10 Reliability Analysis - 3

Reliability and Quality
Control
POLITECNICO DI MILANO
Lesson: Reliability Analysis in the Design Phase

Part III
Loredana Cristaldi
References POLITECNICO DI MILANO
• A. Birolini, “Reliability Engineering- Theory and Practice”, Springer,

2010
• M. Catelani, L. Cristaldi, M. Lazzaroni, L. Peretto, P. Rinaldi,
“Reliability engineering: basic concept and application in ICT”,
Springer, 2011
• R. Bellinton, R.N. Allan: "Reliability Evaluation of Engineering
Systems"- Plenum Press, NY, 1983.
• K. Dehnad: "Quality control, Robust design and the Taguchi
method", Wadsworth & Brooks, 1989.
• R. Billinton “Power System Reliability Evaluation” Gordon and
Breach, Science Publishers, New York 1974
Reliability and Quality Control 2 /72

References POLITECNICO DI MILANO
For this lesson

• Slides
• Chapter 2 and Annex A6 of:
 A. Birolini, “Reliability Engineering: Theory and Practice”,
Springer.
• Chapter 3 of:
 M. Catelani, L. Cristaldi, M. Lazzaroni, L. Peretto, P. Rinaldi,
“Reliability engineering: basic concept and application in ICT”,
Springer, 2011.
• Gamma function:
 HASTINGS, C., JR., Approximations for Digital Computers,
PRINCETON UNIV. PRESS (1955).

Series - parallel configuration POLITECNICO DI MILANO
• This system can be seen as two series subsystems
A A
A A
RS (t ) = .......

• This system can be seen as two series subsystems
A A
A A
RS (t ) = 2 ⋅ R (t ) − R (t )
2
A
4
A

A A
RS (t ) = 2 ⋅ RA2 (t ) − RA4 (t )
A A
System reliability
Single element reliability

System reliability

System reliability
System reliability

Series-Parallel: Residual reliability POLITECNICO DI MILANO
RS (t ) = 2 ⋅ R (t ) − R (t )
2
A
4
A
RS (t ) = 2 ⋅ e
−2 λ t −4⋅λ t
−e
MTTFS = .......
Rs (MTTF ) = .....

RS (t ) = 2 ⋅ R (t ) − R (t )
2
A
4
A
RS (t ) = 2 ⋅ e
−2 λ t −4⋅λ t
−e
2 1 3
MTTFS = − = = 0,75 ⋅ MTTFA
2⋅λ 4⋅λ 4⋅λ

RS (t ) = 2 ⋅ e
−2 λ t −4⋅λ t
−e
RS (MTTF ) = 2 ⋅ e
−2 λ 3 −4⋅λ 3
4⋅λ
−e 4⋅λ
≅ 0,396

Series-Parallel configuration POLITECNICO DI MILANO
Reliability
λt

Where λ= 0,25 10^-3

If λ1= 0,25 ·10^-3 and λ2= 0,5 ·10^-3 …….
Plot?
MTTF?
R(MTTF)?

If λ1= 0,25 ·10^-3 and λ2= 0,5 ·10^-3 …….
MTTF= 2000 h R(MTTF)=0,3965

Series-Parallel: Weibull Model POLITECNICO DI MILANO
( )β ( )β
RS (t ) = 2 ⋅ e
−2 λ t − 4⋅ λ t
−e
+∞
( )β
−2 λ t − 4⋅ λ t( )β
MTTF = ∫ 2⋅e
0
−e dt =
+∞ +∞
2⋅ ∫ e
( β
2λ t ) dt − e −(
β β
4λ t ) dt
β
∫
−
0 0

+∞ +∞
( β
2λ t ) dt − e −(
β β
4λ t ) dt =
β
MTTF = 2 ⋅ ∫ e ∫
−
0 0
 2 1  1  1
 β − β  ⋅ ⋅ Γ1 + 
 2 4 λ  β
 2 1 
MTTF =  β − β  ⋅ MTTFA
 2 4

 2 1 
MTTFS =  3 − 3  ⋅ MTTFA = 0,957 MTTFA
 2 4


If λ1= 0,25 ·10^-3 a
β=3
MTTF??
If λ2= 0,5 ·10^-3 …….
Plot?
MTTF?
R(MTTF)?

Shape value = 3

Consideration POLITECNICO DI MILANO

Parallel-series - configuration POLITECNICO DI MILANO
• This system can be seen as two parallel subsystems
A A
A A
RS (t ) = .......
• Reliability is given by:
A A
A A
[
RS (t ) = 2 ⋅ R (t ) − R (t ) =
2
A
2
A ]
2
4 ⋅ R (t ) − 4 ⋅ R (t ) + R (t )
2
A
3
A
4
A

RS (t ) = A A
4 ⋅ RA2 (t ) − 4 ⋅ RA3 (t ) + RA4 (t )
A A
System reliability

• The reliability of series-parallel configuration is greater

than the reliability of the single element when
RA >0,382
System reliability

• In the case of exponential distribution:
RS (t ) = 4 ⋅ e −2⋅λt − 4 ⋅ e −3⋅λt + e −4⋅λt

Reliability
λt

Parallel-Series: Residual reliability POLITECNICO DI MILANO
RS (t ) = 4 ⋅ e −2⋅λt
− 4⋅e −3⋅λt
+e −4⋅λt
4 12 11 11
MTTFS = − + = = ⋅ MTTFA
λ 3 ⋅ λ 4 ⋅ λ 12 ⋅ λ 12
RS (MTTF ) ≅ 0,40
Parallel-Series: Weibull Model POLITECNICO DI MILANO
( )β ( )β ( )β
RS (t ) = 4 ⋅ e
− 2⋅ λ t −3⋅ λ t − 4⋅ λ t
− 4⋅e +e
+∞ +∞
MTTF = 4 ⋅ ∫ e
( β
2 ⋅λ t ) dt − 4 ⋅ e −(
β β
3 ⋅λ t ) dt
β
∫
−
0 0
+∞
+ ∫e
( −
β
4 ⋅λ t ) dt
β

MTTF = ........

 4 4 1  1  1
MTTF =  β − β + β  ⋅ ⋅ Γ1 + 
 2 3 4 λ  β
 4 4 1 
MTTF =  β − β + β  ⋅ MTTFA
 2 3 4

 4 4 1 
MTTF =  3 − 3 + 3  ⋅ MTTFA = 1,03MTTFA
 2 3 4

Shape value = 3

Shape value = 3

Parallel - Series: Weibull Model POLITECNICO DI MILANO

System with dependent time to failure POLITECNICO DI MILANO
I/2
R
I 1 2
PR = RI
4
R
I/2

1 2
I
P = RI
R
'
4
R
I
PR'' = RI 2

System with dependent failure POLITECNICO DI MILANO
( ) ( ) ( ) (
R(t ) = RA2 t , P ' + 2 ⋅ f A r , P ' ⋅ RA r , P ' ⋅ RA t , P '' r dr
∫ )
0

t
α)
r
β) t

(
R(t ) = RA2 t , P ' )
( ) ( ) ( )
2 ⋅ f A r , P ' ⋅ RA r , P ' ⋅ RA t , P '' r dr

System with dependent failure POLITECNICO DI MILANO
( ) ( ) ( )
∫ ( ) ( ) (
0
)
t
( ) ( ) ( ) (
∫ )
0

( ) ( ) ( ) ( )
∫
0

( ) ( )
RA r , P ' ⋅ RA t , P '' r = RA (t )
R(t ) = RA2 (t ) + 2 ⋅ RA (t ) f A (r )dr

∫
0

( )
RA r , P ' = e − λ1 ⋅t
( )
RA t , P '' r = e − λ2 ⋅(t − r )

(
RA r , P = e
'
) − λ1 ⋅r
(
RA t , P r = e
''
) − λ2 ⋅(t − r )
( ) ∫ ( ) (
R(t ) = RA2 t , P ' + 2 ⋅ f A r , P ' ⋅ RA r , P ' ⋅ RA t , P '' r dr ) ( )
0
t
R(t ) = e − 2 λ1t
+ 2e − λ2 t
⋅ ∫ λ1 ⋅ e − ( 2 λ1 − λ2 )r
dr
0

λ2 2λ1
R(t ) = e − 2 λ1t
+ e − λ2 t
λ2 − 2 ⋅ λ1 2 ⋅ λ1 − λ2
+∞ λ2 2λ1
∫
− 2 λ1t
MTTF = e + e −λ2t dt
0 λ2 − 2 ⋅ λ1 2 ⋅ λ1 − λ2
2 ⋅ 𝜆𝜆1 + 𝜆𝜆2
𝑀𝑀𝑀𝑀𝑀𝑀𝑀𝑀 =
2 ⋅ 𝜆𝜆1 𝜆𝜆2

λ2 2λ1
R(t ) = e − 2 λ1t
+ e − λ2 t
λ2 − 2 ⋅ λ1 2 ⋅ λ1 − λ2
….If λ2 = 2 ⋅ λ1 ??

….If λ2 = 2 ⋅ λ1
R(t ) = e −2 λ1t
(1 + 2λ1t )

Example POLITECNICO DI MILANO
λ1 = 4 ⋅10 −7 h −1
λ2 = 9,2 ⋅10 −7
h −1
R(t ) = 7,66 ⋅ e −8⋅10 −7 t

− 6,66 ⋅ e −9 , 2⋅10 −7 t

Example POLITECNICO DI MILANO
R(t ) = 7,66 ⋅ e −8⋅10 −7 t

− 6,66 ⋅ e −9 , 2⋅10 −7 t
R(t ) = 2 ⋅ e −4⋅10 −7 t
−e −2⋅4⋅10 −7 t
Reliability
λt
System with Stand-by redundancy POLITECNICO DI MILANO

t
α)
r
β) t

R(t ) = RA (t )
f A (r ) ⋅ RB (t − r )dr
∫ f A (r ) ⋅ RB (t − r )dr
0
R(t ) = RA (t ) + ∫ f A (r ) ⋅ RB (t − r )dr
0
R(t ) = ........

t
R(t ) = e −λ At + λ A ∫ e −λ Ar ⋅ e −λB ( t − r ) dr
0
λB λA
R(t ) = e − λ At
+ e −λB t
λB − λ A λ A − λB

λB λA
R(t ) = e − λ At
+ e −λB t
R(t ) = e (1 + λ ⋅ t )
−λ t

+∞
λB λA
∫λ
− λ At
MTTF = e + e −λBt dt
0 B − λA λ A − λB
1 1
MTTF = + = MTTFA + MTTFB
λA λB

System with warm redundancy POLITECNICO DI MILANO

t
α)
r
β) t

RB (r )
RB (t r )
∫ f (r )⋅ R (r )R (t r )dr
0
A B B

t
R(t ) = RA (t ) + ∫ f A (r ) ⋅ RB (r )RB (t r )dr
0
R(t ) = .........

R(t ) = e − λ At
+ λA e ∫
−λ Ar
⋅e − λ'B r
⋅ e −λB ( t − r ) dr
0
R(t ) = e − λ At
+
λA
(λA + λB ) − λB
'
⋅e −λ t
−e − (λ
[ B A + λB
'
)t ]

1 λA 1
MTTF = + ⋅
λA (λ A +λ '
B ) λB

Considerations POLITECNICO DI MILANO

Stand-by redundancy: Real S POLITECNICO DI MILANO

t
α)
r
β) t

R(t ) = RA (t ) + RC (r ) ⋅ Rsw (r ) ⋅ f A (r ) ⋅ RB (t − r )dr

∫0
t
R(t ) = e − λ At
+ λA ⋅ ∫ e − λc r
⋅e − λsw r
⋅e −λ Ar
⋅e −λB ( t − r )
dr =
0
t
e −λ At + λ A ⋅ ∫ e −(λc + λsw + λ A )r ⋅ e −λB ( t − r ) dr
0

R(t ) =
− (λc + λsw )⋅t − λ B ⋅t
− λ At  λA ⋅ e  λA ⋅ e
e ⋅ 1 −  +
 λ A + λc + λsw − λB  λ A + λc + λsw − λB

MTTF =
1 λA  1 1 
+ ⋅  − 
λ A (λ A + λc + λsw − λB )  λB (λ A + λc + λsw ) 

Stand-by redundancy POLITECNICO DI MILANO

Consideration about stand-by POLITECNICO DI MILANO
λB λA
R(t ) = e − λ At
+ e −λB t
1 1
MTTF = + = MTTFA + MTTFB
λA λB
R(t ) = e (1 + λ ⋅ t )
−λ t

Consideration about stand-by POLITECNICO DI MILANO
R(t ) = e (1 + λ ⋅ t )
−λ t
+∞ +∞ −𝜆𝜆𝜆𝜆 +∞ −𝜆𝜆𝜆𝜆
MTTFs=∫0 𝑅𝑅 𝑡𝑡 𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑 = ∫0 𝑒𝑒 𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑 + ∫0 𝑒𝑒 � 𝜆𝜆𝜆𝜆𝜆𝜆𝜆𝜆
+∞ +∞ −𝜆𝜆𝜆𝜆
1
MTTFs=∫0 𝑅𝑅 𝑡𝑡 𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑 = 𝑀𝑀𝑀𝑀𝑀𝑀𝑀𝑀 + ∫0 𝑒𝑒 � 𝜆𝜆𝜆𝜆 𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑
𝜆𝜆
+∞ +∞
Γ 𝛼𝛼 = � 𝑥𝑥 𝛼𝛼−1 � 𝑒𝑒 −𝑥𝑥 𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑 � 𝑥𝑥 � 𝑒𝑒 −𝑥𝑥 𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑 = Γ 2 = 1
0 0
+∞
1
� 𝑒𝑒 −𝜆𝜆𝜆𝜆 � 𝜆𝜆𝜆𝜆 𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑 = Γ 2 MTTFs=𝑀𝑀𝑀𝑀𝑀𝑀𝑀𝑀 + 𝜆𝜆 Γ 2 =2·MTTF
0

Lesson 10 Reliability Analysis - 3

Uploaded by

Document Information

Original Description:

Original Title

Copyright

Available Formats

Share this document

Share or Embed Document

Sharing Options

Did you find this document useful?

Is this content inappropriate?

Copyright:

Available Formats

Lesson 10 Reliability Analysis - 3

Uploaded by

Copyright:

Available Formats

Reliability and Quality

Lesson: Reliability Analysis in the Design Phase

• A. Birolini, “Reliability Engineering- Theory and Practice”, Springer,

Reliability and Quality Control 2 /72

For this lesson

Reliability and Quality Control 3 /72

• This system can be seen as two series subsystems

Reliability and Quality Control 4 /72

• This system can be seen as two series subsystems

Reliability and Quality Control 5 /72

Single element reliability

Single element reliability

Single element reliability

Reliability and Quality Control 8 /72

Reliability and Quality Control 9 /72

Reliability and Quality Control 10 /72

Reliability and Quality Control 11 /72

Reliability and Quality Control 12 /72

Where λ= 0,25 10^-3

If λ1= 0,25 ·10^-3 and λ2= 0,5 ·10^-3 …….

Reliability and Quality Control 14 /72

If λ1= 0,25 ·10^-3 and λ2= 0,5 ·10^-3 …….

MTTF= 2000 h R(MTTF)=0,3965

Reliability and Quality Control 16 /72

Reliability and Quality Control 17 /72

Reliability and Quality Control 18 /72

Reliability and Quality Control 19 /72

If λ1= 0,25 ·10^-3 a

If λ2= 0,5 ·10^-3 …….

Reliability and Quality Control 20 /72

Reliability and Quality Control 21 /72

Reliability and Quality Control 22 /72

• This system can be seen as two parallel subsystems

• Reliability is given by:

Reliability and Quality Control 24 /72

Single element reliability

• The reliability of series-parallel configuration is greater

Single element reliability

Reliability and Quality Control 26 /72

• In the case of exponential distribution:

RS (t ) = 4 ⋅ e −2⋅λt − 4 ⋅ e −3⋅λt + e −4⋅λt

Reliability and Quality Control 27 /72

Reliability and Quality Control 29 /72

Reliability and Quality Control 30 /72

Reliability and Quality Control 31 /72

Reliability and Quality Control 32 /72

Reliability and Quality Control 33 /72

Reliability and Quality Control 34 /72

Reliability and Quality Control 35 /72

Reliability and Quality Control 36 /72

Reliability and Quality Control 37 /72

Reliability and Quality Control 38 /72

Reliability and Quality Control 39 /72

Reliability and Quality Control 40 /72

Reliability and Quality Control 41 /72

Reliability and Quality Control 42 /72

R(t ) = RA2 (t ) + 2 ⋅ RA (t ) f A (r )dr

Reliability and Quality Control 43 /72

Reliability and Quality Control 44 /72

Reliability and Quality Control 45 /72

Reliability and Quality Control 46 /72

Reliability and Quality Control 47 /72