Reliability and Quality

Control

POLITECNICO DI MILANO

Lesson: Reliability Analysis in the Design Phase

Part III
Loredana Cristaldi
 References POLITECNICO DI MILANO

• A. Birolini, “Reliability Engineering- Theory and Practice”, Springer,

2010
• M. Catelani, L. Cristaldi, M. Lazzaroni, L. Peretto, P. Rinaldi,
“Reliability engineering: basic concept and application in ICT”,
Springer, 2011
• R. Bellinton, R.N. Allan: "Reliability Evaluation of Engineering
Systems"- Plenum Press, NY, 1983.
• K. Dehnad: "Quality control, Robust design and the Taguchi
method", Wadsworth & Brooks, 1989.
• R. Billinton “Power System Reliability Evaluation” Gordon and
Breach, Science Publishers, New York 1974

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 References POLITECNICO DI MILANO

For this lesson

• Slides
• Chapter 2 and Annex A6 of:
 A. Birolini, “Reliability Engineering: Theory and Practice”,
Springer.
• Chapter 3 of:
 M. Catelani, L. Cristaldi, M. Lazzaroni, L. Peretto, P. Rinaldi,
“Reliability engineering: basic concept and application in ICT”,
Springer, 2011.
• Gamma function:
 HASTINGS, C., JR., Approximations for Digital Computers,
PRINCETON UNIV. PRESS (1955).

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K out of N POLITECNICO DI MILANO

B D

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 K out of N POLITECNICO DI MILANO

RS (t ) =
( )
R A (t ) ⋅ RB (t ) ⋅ RC (t ) + 1 − R A (t ) ⋅ RB (t ) ⋅ RC (t ) +
(1 − R (t ))⋅ R (t )⋅ R (t ) + (1 − R (t ))⋅ R (t )⋅ R (t )
b A C C A B

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 K out of N POLITECNICO DI MILANO

RS (t ) = 3 ⋅ R (t ) − 2 ⋅ R (t )
2
A
3
A
System Reliability

RA(t)

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K out of N POLITECNICO DI MILANO

System Reliability

RA(t)

5
MTTF = ⋅ MTTFA
6
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Consideration about K out of N POLITECNICO DI MILANO

n
n
RS (t ) = ∑   (R(t )) (1 − R(t ))
i n −i

i =k  i 

n n!
  =
 i  i!(n − i )!

( )( )
n
n -λt i n −i
RS (t ) = ∑
  e 1 − e -λt
i =k  i 

𝑛𝑛
+∞
𝑛𝑛 𝑛𝑛−𝑖𝑖
𝑀𝑀𝑀𝑀𝑀𝑀𝑀𝑀 = � � � 𝑒𝑒 −𝜆𝜆𝜆𝜆𝜆𝜆 1 − 𝑒𝑒 −𝜆𝜆𝜆𝜆
𝑖𝑖 0
𝑖𝑖=𝑘𝑘

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 Consideration about K out of N POLITECNICO DI MILANO

𝑛𝑛 +∞ n n!
𝑛𝑛 −𝜆𝜆𝜆𝜆𝜆𝜆 −𝜆𝜆𝜆𝜆 𝑛𝑛−𝑖𝑖   =
𝑀𝑀𝑀𝑀𝑀𝑀𝑀𝑀 = � �� 𝑒𝑒 1 − 𝑒𝑒  i  i!(n − i )!
𝑖𝑖 0
𝑖𝑖=𝑘𝑘

It is possible to demonstrate that:

1 𝑛𝑛 1
𝑀𝑀𝑀𝑀𝑀𝑀𝑀𝑀= ∑𝑖𝑖=𝑘𝑘
𝜆𝜆 𝑖𝑖

Introducing: 𝑣𝑣 = 𝑒𝑒 −𝜆𝜆𝑡𝑡
𝑛𝑛
𝑛𝑛 1 1 𝑖𝑖−1 𝑛𝑛−𝑖𝑖
𝑀𝑀𝑀𝑀𝑀𝑀𝑀𝑀 = � � � 𝑣𝑣 1 − 𝑣𝑣 𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑
𝑖𝑖 𝜆𝜆 0
𝑖𝑖=𝑘𝑘

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 Consideration about K out of N POLITECNICO DI MILANO

𝑛𝑛
𝑛𝑛 1 1 𝑖𝑖−1 𝑛𝑛−𝑖𝑖 𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑 𝑣𝑣 = 𝑒𝑒 −𝜆𝜆𝑡𝑡
𝑀𝑀𝑀𝑀𝑀𝑀𝑀𝑀 = � � � 𝑣𝑣 1 − 𝑣𝑣
𝑖𝑖 𝜆𝜆 0
𝑖𝑖=𝑘𝑘

Considering that: 𝑛𝑛 − 𝑖𝑖 = 𝑛𝑛 − 𝑖𝑖 + 1 − 1 = 𝑠𝑠 − 1

And the Beta Function:

1
𝑖𝑖−1 𝑠𝑠−1
Γ 𝑖𝑖 � Γ 𝑠𝑠 Γ 𝑖𝑖 � Γ 𝑛𝑛 − 𝑖𝑖 + 1
𝐵𝐵 𝑖𝑖, 𝑠𝑠 = � 𝑣𝑣 1 − 𝑣𝑣 𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑 = =
0 Γ 𝑖𝑖 + 𝑠𝑠 Γ 𝑛𝑛 + 1

Reliability and Quality Control 10 /20

Consideration about K out of N POLITECNICO DI MILANO

𝑛𝑛
𝑛𝑛 1 1 𝑖𝑖−1 𝑠𝑠−1
𝑀𝑀𝑀𝑀𝑀𝑀𝑀𝑀 = � � � 𝑣𝑣 1 − 𝑣𝑣 𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑 =
𝑖𝑖 𝜆𝜆 0
𝑖𝑖=𝑘𝑘

𝑛𝑛
Γ 𝑖𝑖 � Γ 𝑛𝑛 − 𝑖𝑖 + 1 𝑖𝑖 − 1 ! � 𝑠𝑠 − 1 ! 1 1
= = �
Γ 𝑛𝑛 + 1 𝑖𝑖 + 𝑠𝑠 − 1 ! 𝜆𝜆 𝑖𝑖
𝑖𝑖=𝑘𝑘

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Consideration about K out of N POLITECNICO DI MILANO

k/n 1 2 3 4 5
1 1 3 11 25 137
𝜆𝜆 2𝜆𝜆 6𝜆𝜆 12 𝜆𝜆 60𝜆𝜆
2 - 1 5 13 77
2𝜆𝜆 6𝜆𝜆 12𝜆𝜆 60𝜆𝜆
3 - - 1 7 47
3𝜆𝜆 12𝜆𝜆 60𝜆𝜆
4 - - - 1 9
4𝜆𝜆 20𝜆𝜆
5 - - - - 1
5𝜆𝜆

MTTF of some k-out-of-n system of identical and independent components

with constant failure rate

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 K out of N: Weibull Model POLITECNICO DI MILANO

( )β ( )β
RS (t ) = 3 ⋅ e
− 2⋅ λ t −3⋅ λ t
− 2⋅e

 3 2 
MTTF =  β − β  ⋅ MTTFA
 2 3

 3 2 
MTTF =  3 − 3  ⋅ MTTFA = 0,994 ⋅ MTTFA
 2 3
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Standby system with n items POLITECNICO DI MILANO

2 S

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Standby system with n items POLITECNICO DI MILANO

2 S

n
𝑛𝑛

𝑇𝑇 = � 𝑇𝑇𝑖𝑖
𝑖𝑖=1

𝑛𝑛−1
𝜆𝜆𝜆𝜆 𝑘𝑘 −𝜆𝜆𝜆𝜆
𝑅𝑅𝑠𝑠 𝑡𝑡 = � 𝑒𝑒
𝑘𝑘!
𝑘𝑘=0

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Reliability and Failure modes POLITECNICO DI MILANO

F (t ) = F1 (t ) + F2 (t )

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Reliability and Failure modes POLITECNICO DI MILANO

R(t ) = 1 − F1 (t ) − F2 (t )

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Reliability and Failure modes POLITECNICO DI MILANO

F (t ) = Fa2 (t ) + 2 ⋅ Fsc (t ) − Fsc2 (t )

R(t ) = [1 − Fsc (t )] − Fa2 (t )

2

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Reliability and Failure modes POLITECNICO DI MILANO

R(t ) = [1 − Fa (t )] − Fsc2 (t )
2

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Reliability and Failure modes POLITECNICO DI MILANO

R(t ) = [1 − Fsc (t )] − F (t )
2 2
a

R(t ) = [1 − Fa (t )] − F (t )
2 2
sc

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