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Control de Lectura 2
Control de Lectura 2
11.1 Aims
As with Chapter 10, this chapter does not introduce any new statistical calculations.
However, it addresses the key ideas of causation in non-experimental science. It also
prepares you for the final ideas – namely regression and correlation – you need to know
in order to complete ST104a Statistics 1.
Newbold, P., W.L. Carlson and B.M. Thorne Statistics for Business and
Economics. (London: Prentice-Hall, 2012) eighth edition [ISBN 9780273767060]
Section 13.2.
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11. Some ideas underlying causation – the use of control groups and time order
Those taking SC1021 Principles of sociology should reread Section 2.4 and Chapter
3 with care!
11.5 Introduction
So far, we have looked at ways of collecting and describing data. Chapters 3 and 10
introduced you to the basic ideas of sampling from populations. The main ways of
describing and presenting data were covered in Chapter 4. Chapters 6 to 8 dealt with
the ways we can assess the relevance or significance of these figures, while Chapter 9
introduced the idea of ‘association’ between categorical variables. Chapter 12 will
complete the process, so far as ST104a Statistics 1 is concerned, by covering
correlation and regression.
Before we look at the ideas of correlation and regression more formally, it is important
to take stock of the limitations of assuming causation when working in social research.
Anyone who studied science at school will be familiar with the idea of an experiment.
Subjects are measured (observations are made), a treatment is administered, then
further observations are made. Providing that we can be sure that nothing else has
happened between observations, apart from the treatment (scientists write ‘other things
being equal’1 ), the assumption is made that the treatment has caused the change
between the first and second set of observations.
If we are dealing with such a controlled experiment, the meaning of our statistical
measures and work is very clear. However, in social science, business and management
fields, things are rarely that simple. We are generally faced with figures that show
changes in variables but the treatment given is not easy to assess.
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11.6. Observational studies and designed experiments
So it is important to control for confounding factors, that is, factors which are
correlated with the observed variables (such as the rival’s actions in Example 11.1).
Failure to properly control for such factors may lead us to treat a false positive as a
genuine causal relationship.
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11. Some ideas underlying causation – the use of control groups and time order
time order.
Example 11.2 To assess the likely effect on tooth decay of adding fluoride to the
water supply, you can look at the data for your non-fluoridated water population
and compare it with one of the communities with naturally-occurring fluoride in
their water and measure tooth decay in both populations. But be careful! A lot of
other things may be different. Are the following the same for both communities?
Eating habits
Age distribution.
Think of other relevant attributes that may differ between the two. If you can
match in this way (i.e. find two communities that share the same characteristics
and only differ in the fluoride concentration of their water supply), your results may
11 have some significance.
So, to credibly establish a causal link in an observational study, all other relevant
factors need to be adequately controlled, such that any change between observation
periods can be explained by only one variable.
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11.8. Time order
Policy makers use these surveys over a long period of time to look at the development of
childhood diseases, educational development and unemployment. There are many
long-term studies in these areas. Some longitudinal medical studies of rare diseases have 11
been carried out at an international level over long periods. One such, very well-known,
study which is readily available is the UK National Child Development Survey. This
began with a sample of about 5,000 children born in April 1948. It is still going on! It
was initially set up to look at the connections between childhood health and
development and nutrition by social groups. The figures produced in the first few years
were so useful that it was extended to study educational development and work
experience. There are several books which describe the survey at its different stages.
2
For example, treatment A is administered if a fair coin toss comes up ‘heads’, otherwise treatment
B is administered.
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11. Some ideas underlying causation – the use of control groups and time order
You should note the advantages and disadvantages of using such methods. The big
advantages are that you:
do not depend on people’s memories about what they did four years ago, say.
on the one hand, drop out – if the subject material is trivial, people may not
agree to be continually resurveyed
Despite the disadvantages, such studies are widely regarded as being the best way of
studying change over time.
they are more likely to be chosen by quota rather than random methods
individuals are interviewed every 2 to 4 weeks (rather than every few years)
individuals are unlikely to be panel members for longer than two years at a time.
We can use results from such surveys to look at brand loyalty and brand switching. It is
particularly useful for assessing the effectiveness of advertising. For now, make sure you
understand how a longitudinal or panel study is set up.
age
sex
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11.10. Summary
occupation
home area
being in hospital at roughly the same time.
Using the measures that you will meet in Chapter 12, it was found that the main
difference between the two groups was in smoking behaviour – those with lung cancer
were more likely to be heavy smokers than the other group. Although this study was
carried out some time ago, similar studies have confirmed the results.
But what did the study tell us? Consider again Section 11.5. Descriptive statistics alone
cannot distinguish between the following ideas.
11.10 Summary
11
This chapter’s focus on causation gives you an opportunity to think of the implications
of the work you have covered in the earlier chapters and prepares the way for the
material in Chapter 12.
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