MAY 12, 2021

THE COVID BRIEF

Executive Summary

As India fights the second wave of the pandemic, the country is faced with the ominous prospect of a
third wave, which experts feel will hit us in October, while the second wave may end in July.

India led the world with vaccine diplomacy, gifting countries several doses. In fact, as on May 12, 2021,
over 6.63 crore doses of made in India vaccines have been supplied to 95 countries.

As per data from the Union Ministry of Health and Family Welfare, India has over 3.7 million active
COVID-19 cases. On April 30, India conducted over 1.94 million COVID-19 tests, the highest ever in the
world. Our country is currently testing around 1.85 million people every day and the COVID positivity
rate in the country is around 21%.

Over the past 24 hours, India recorded 348,421 fresh Covid-19 cases and 4,205 deaths. The Union
Ministry of Health & Family Welfare has said it is witnessing an early trend of decline in daily new
COVID-19 cases and deaths in the country and states like Maharashtra, UP, Delhi, Andhra Pradesh,
Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh are among 18 states showing continued plateauing or decrease in daily
new Covid-19 cases.

On the flip side, Karnataka, Kerala, Tamil Nadu, West Bengal, Odisha, Punjab, Assam, J&K, Goa,
Himachal Pradesh, Puducherry, Manipur, Meghalaya, Tripura, Nagaland, and Arunachal Pradesh showing
continued increasing trend in daily new cases.

AIIMS Director Dr. Randeep Guleria has said any epidemic usually makes an impact in three waves out
of which it is believed that the second wave proves to be the most dangerous one.

The jury is still out, however, on whether the second wave of the pandemic has peaked in India. In an
important development, the central government has directed states to ensure all beneficiaries who
have taken the first dose are prioritised for getting second doses.

In this issue of the COVID Brief, we bring to you an analysis of the second wave of COVID-19 in India,
and share an update on the biggest inoculation drive in the world. We then discuss emerging consumer
trends in India across select sectors.
 India Media Chatter around COVID-19
MAY 12 MAY 14
June 11 MAY 11 MAY 10 MAY 08

India Covid Latest India's seven-day Sputnik V arrived 1 India becomes DCGI approves anti-
News LIVE Updates: Covid-19 average at May to boost India's fastest country to COVID drug
4,205 Covid Deaths, new high, WHO vaccine drive, but is administer over 17 developed by DRDO
Highest In India In issues warning on still 'stuck' in lab for crore Covid-19 for emergency use
24 hours, 3.48 Lakh strain tests vaccine doses
Fresh Cases

MAY 07 MAY 14
June 06 APR 30 APR 29 APR 20

Second Covid-19 More foreign Phase 3 vaccination Consumers rein in Modi urges vaccine
wave: Global ports vaccines on cards as for 18+ begins spending amid covid manufacturers to
slam the door on govt relaxes rules today but states scale up production
Indian seafarerss say they don't have capacity 2 min read
(Including Singapore, vaccine stock
Canada, UK and United
Arab Emirates )

Expert-speak

Based on what WHO knows so far as per discussions

with experts globally, vaccines, therapeutics and
diagnostics continue to be effective against (the)
B.1.617 variant (of COVID-19), which WHO has
classified as a variant of concern. We classify it as a
variant of concern at a global level. There is some
available information to suggest increased
transmissibility.

Maria Van Kerkhove, WHO technical lead on COVID-19,

talking about the B.1.617 variant of Covid-19, which was
first found in India in October 2020.

Getting infection after vaccination is known as

breakthrough infection. 2-4 per 10,000 breakthrough
infections have occurred, which is a very small number.

Dr. Balram Bhargava, secretary, department of health

research and director-general of ICMR
 Vaccination Update
Medical photo created by freepik - www.freepik.com

As on May 11, 2021, nearly 10% of all Indians have received at least one shot of the vaccine, while
2.6% Indians are completely vaccinated. While the percentages may look small, the absolute
numbers are huge, given the size of our country's population.

India has administered over 17.3 crore vaccine doses, becoming the fastest country in the world to
do so. A total of 3.6 crore Indians are fully vaccinated. In comparison, around 47% Americans have
got at least one jab. The US, the country with the most number of active COVID-19 cases, has fully
vaccinated 11.6 crore people, or 35.2% of its population, administering 26.2 crore doses in all.

Brazil, the country with the third highest active cases, has fully vaccinated only 7.2% of its
population, dispensing a total of 4.74 crore vaccine jabs.

Sources:

https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations?country=IND
Spotlight: Deconstructing the Second Wave

Debates and discussions about the Second Wave of the COVID-19 pandemic have dominated public
platforms for the last three months or so. For stakeholders to take the appropriate steps and citizens
to ensure their own safety, it becomes important to go back to the fundamentals and understand
what is going on and how it is likely to evolve. At the outset, let’s take another look at how the
second wave arrived.

Arrival and Progression

Since a peak of more than 93,000 cases per day on average in mid-September, infections had
steadily declined in India. By mid-February, India was counting an average of 11,000 cases a day. The
seven-day rolling average of daily deaths from the disease had slid to below 100. On 10 February, at
the start of the second wave, India confirmed 11,000 cases - and in the next 50 days, the daily
average was around 22,000 cases. But in the following 10 days, cases rose sharply with the daily
average reaching 89,800. With 4,08,323 new COVID-19 cases recorded until 11 p.m. on April 30, India
became the first country in the world to register over 4 lakh cases.
On May 9, India reported a one-day rise of 4,092 Covid-19 deaths as cases surged by more than 4
lakh for the fourth consecutive day. India's health ministry registered 4,092 fatalities over the past 24
hours, taking the overall death toll to 2,42,362. The second wave is mostly being driven by new
variants -- UK (B.1.1.7), South Africa (B.1.351) and Brazil (called B.1.28 and as P.1) variants plus two so-
called Indian variants (B.1.617 and B.1.618), among possible others like B.1.36 (called N440K).

Reasons for Second Wave

Medical experts have identified a few key reasons for the arrival of second waves in various countries
around the world:

Human behavior: Human behavior is the major factor. State and local governments, as well as
individual people, have differed in their response to the pandemic. Some have followed COVID-19
precautions, such as physical distancing, hand-washing and mask-wearing. Others were not as
prescriptive in requiring these measures or in restricting certain high risk activities. In some cities,
towns and communities, public places were closed or practicing limitations (such as how many
people are allowed inside at one time); others were operating normally. Some government and
community leaders encouraged or even mandated mask wearing and physical distancing in public
areas. Others did not. However, the relationship between those precautions and cases of COVID-19 is
clear to experts: In areas where fewer people are wearing masks and more are gathering indoors to
eat, drink, observe religious practices, celebrate and socialize, even with family, cases are on the rise.

Reopening: As communities began to reopen bars, restaurants and stores during the spring and
summer of 2020, people were understandably eager to be able to go out and resume some of their
regular activities. But the number of people infected with the coronavirus was still high in many
areas, and transmission of the virus was easily rekindled once people increased their activities and
contact with each other. Medical experts urged reopening communities to continue diligent COVID-19
precautions, including physical distancing, hand-washing and mask-wearing, and monitoring for
symptoms. Unfortunately, the combination of reopening and lapses in these infection prevention
efforts has caused the number of coronavirus infections to rise again.

Large-scale events: Events that have led to gatherings of large number of people such as elections
and religious congregations have also been responsible for rapid surge in cases in some pockets.
Is this the peak?

According to some experts, there are early signs in the data that the devastating second wave may
be reaching its peak. One of the reasons for this is that since the arrival of the second wave in mid-
February, for the first time the seven-day rolling average of daily cases dipped on May 7. The dip was
only 118 cases, with the average being close to 3.9 lakh cases daily. Nevertheless, it was a distinct
slowing down in the growth of daily cases over the course of a week. The seven-day daily average
grew by 20,117 cases in the week leading up to May 8, which was much lower compared to the
growth figures over the last two seven day periods, which were 61,173 and 1,06,024 respectively.

However, the above analysis has to be offered with the qualification that there are still a number of
states where cases are surging, for example, Karnataka, Kerala, Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh, West
Bengal, Assam, Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh, Haryana and Jammu & Kashmir. India’s positivity rate
also remains significantly high.

Will there be a third wave?

A number of public officials have made statements about an anticipated third wave, including K. Vijay
Raghavan, principal scientific adviser to the Government of India who said it is inevitable. State-level
leaders in Delhi, Karnataka, Gujarat and Maharashtra have resolved to prepare and take effective
actions to deal with the third wave. In this context, it becomes important to understand if there will
be a third wave and what can be anticipated.

Addressing a press briefing of the Union health ministry, Dr K Vijay Raghavan also said, "If we take
strong measures, the third wave may not happen in all the places or indeed anywhere at all. It
depends much on how effectively the guidelines are implemented at the local level, in the states, in
districts and in the cities everywhere."

AIIMS Director Dr. Randeep Guleria said on May 9th that any epidemic usually makes its impact in
three waves out of which it is believed that the second wave proves to be the most dangerous one.

In light of these statements we may anticipate a less intense third wave, which may be further
weakened by strict enforcement of government guidelines. Experts believe that the country will
encounter a third wave of Covid-19 sooner or later. Some experts also say that children and newborns
will be at higher risk in the possible third wave.

Sources:

https://www.hopkinsmedicine.org/health/conditions-and-diseases/coronavirus/first-and-second-waves-of-coronavirus

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/early-signs-of-2nd-wave-peaking-as-growth-slows/articleshow/82488718.cms

https://www.newindianexpress.com/nation/2021/may/06/covid-second-wave-is-nearing-its-peak-noted-virologist-dr-t-jacob-john-2299263.html

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-56811315

https://www.indiatoday.in/coronavirus-outbreak/story/india-4-03-lakh-cases-for-4th-consecutive-day-4092-deaths-1800419-2021-05-09

https://www.indiatoday.in/coronavirus-outbreak/story/covid-third-wave-may-never-come-if-we-take-strong-measures-govt-1800032-2021-05-07

https://www.indiatvnews.com/news/india/will-there-be-a-third-wave-of-coronavirus-aiims-director-dr-randeep-guleria-latest-news-703530
Market Impact

S&P BSE Sensex movement over the past month

l The S&P BSE Sensex closed down 471 points at 48,690.80 points on May 12, following global cues.

l On the COVID-19 front, the World Health Organization said the coronavirus variant first identified
in India last year was being classified as a variant of global concern, with some preliminary studies
showing that it spreads more easily. This news weighed on the markets. Over the past month,
India's broader markets have risen around 2%.
l Ratings agency Moody's has revised the forecast for India's economic growth in the ongoing
financial year to 9.3% from its earlier projection of 13.7%. The agency has also denied the possibility
of a sovereign rating upgrade for India in the near future.
l Last week, Goldman Sachs had lowered its estimate for India's FY22 economic growth to 11.1%,
primarily because of the lockdowns being announced by cities and states in the country.
l Analysts expect India's agricultural output to suffer if the spread of the ongoing second Covid
wave in rural India is not curtailed. A report by CRISIL has alerted about the second wave rising in
rural India as its share of infection has risen from 21% in March to 30% in April.

Sources:

https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/opinion/impact-of-covid-19-second-wave-on-indias-agriculture-6879761.html

https://www.businesstoday.in/current/economy-politics/moodys-revises-india-fy22-gdp-forecast-to-93/story/438816.html

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy/indicators/goldman-sachs-lowers-india-growth-forecast-for-fy21-to-11-1-pc/articleshow/82385640.cms
 Consumer Trends

What evolving consumer perspectives reveal

It’s no secret that the world around us is transforming rapidly, with the pandemic having redefined the
‘normal’ as we knew it. The crisis has forced people to change behaviours and beliefs and that, in turn, has
impacted how businesses are evolving. As the pandemic continues to shapeshift, consumer sentiments are
expected to evolve further.

We have curated some of the important developments and happenings across select sectors in India. Here
is a closer look at recent cultural shifts and perspectives around Covid-19 and vaccination, brand
interactions, and online journeys, along with some key takeaways.

Cultural Shifts

1 How do they feel about Covid-19?

Levels of concerns
have increased to
extremely
concerned in
90% in India
v/s 61% globally
March 2021:
Level of comfort in:

Large Indoor Events: Large Outdoor Events:

57% Uncomfortable 58%
25% Comfortable 24%

16% Neutral 20%

2% Restricted 3%

Indoor Dining:
40% Uncomfortable
39% Comfortable

20% Neutral

1% Restricted

In-Store Shopping:
36% Uncomfortable
46% Comfortable

17% Neutral

1% Restricted

Public Transit:
56% Uncomfortable
25% Comfortable

18% Neutral

1% Restricted
Vaccine attitudes:

Gen Z & Gen X &

Overall
Millennials Boomers

As Soon As It is Available: 44% 44% 44%

I Will Wait a While: 33% 33% 36%

Only if Necessary for Travel, 12% 13% 9%

Work, School:

No: 5% 8% 3%

Not Sure Yet: 6% 5% 8%

Motivations for Vaccinations:

India V/S Globally

Seeing more research into the

55% 53%
vaccine and its side effects:

More understanding of the

54% 43%
approval/testing process:

Understanding of how
48% 38%
the vaccine works:

Knowing I can afford

41% 30%
to play for it:

Being able to see family

32% 21%
members/friends again:

Key takeaways: Audiences are generally highly concerned about the pandemic in India and are
uncomfortable with large gatherings for the most part. However, they are open to vaccinations,
with their considerations driven by a scientific understanding of the vaccine. A majority of people
are unaware that the vaccinations are free of cost.
Cultural Shifts

2 Self-Perceptions
India Globally

I believe all people should have equal rights:

54%
58%

I like to explore the world:

52%
48%

I like to know what is going on in the world:

46%
50%

I am interested in other cultures/countries:

43%
47%

I like to be the first to try new things:

43%
35%

Key takeaways: Indian audiences are less into equal rights. They would rather explore new places
and try new things, despite not wanting to know as much about global happenings or learning
about other cultures/countries. While they say that all people should have equal rights, this is at
variance with the World Economic Forum’s Global Gender Gap report, which ranks India at
140/156, and is the third-worst performer in South Asia. India lies among the bottom 10 countries
when it comes to gender gap based on income earned.
Cultural Shifts

3 Future Outlook (% of people who think the following

will get better in the next six months)

India Globally

The Environment: 58% 50%

Personal Finances: 52% 50%

Country’s Economy: 48% 46%

Key takeaways: India has a relatively positive outlook on the state of the environment and its
improvement in the next six months. This is diametrically opposed to the newest findings in Yale
University’s Environmental Performance Index, which rates India at 168/180, and the World Health
Organisation rating India 120/122 on the Water Pollution Index.

4 Brand Interactions on Social

India Globally

24% 23% 22% 22% 22% 17% 18% 16% 18% 14%

Liked/ Visited a brand’s Used a social Clicked on a Asked a

followed social network networking sponsored question
a brand page ‘share’ button post on social to a brand
on social

Key takeaways: India interacts more with brands than the rest of the world, and is more likely to
follow a brand, visit its page, or share its posts.
Cultural Shifts

5 Purchase Journey

Ads on TV Search Engines Online Retail Websites

34% 33% 31% 49% 49% 39% 46% 39% 34% 50% 39% 38%

Brand/Product Online Brand/ Online Purchase Brand

Discovery Product Research Drivers Advocacy

6 Brand Qualities

India Globally

60% 45% 45% 58% 44% 48%

Smart Reliable Innovative

Key takeaways: Search engines play a large role in brand discovery and research, while aspects
such as easy returns and free delivery drive purchases. Their loyalty to brands is driven by quality.
They want their brands to be smart, but are not too bothered by innovation or reliability.
Cultural Shifts

7 Online Purchases

India Globally

Electronics: 41% 32%

Groceries:
38% 36%
Beauty & Personal Care:
37% 31%
Clothing/Shoes:
29% 28%
Luxury:
27% 21%
Household Products:
26% 23%
Home & Furniture:
25% 19%
Medicine & Healthcare:
19% 14%
Financial Products:
17% 13%
Alcohol:
12% 19%
*The data is drawn from online research among internet users aged 16-64 in Q2-Q3 2020.
 *List of news publishers

1. Times of India 5. Livemint 9. DNA 13. Amar Ujala 17. Deccan Herald 21. The Newsminute
2. Indian Express 6. India Today 10. The Tribune 14. Scroll 18. Telegraph India
3. Financial Express 7. Economic Times 11. The Pioneer 15. Quint 19. New Indian Express
4. The Hindu 8. Business Standard 12. Dainik Bhaskar 16. ABP News 20. The Hindu Businessline

Sources to follow
Follow these handles on Twitter to get live updates from national and global perspectives.

1. PHFI @thePHFI Public Health Foundation of India 14. CDC @CDCgov Centers for Disease Control & Prevention, USA
2. ORF @orfonline 15. NHS @NHSuk National Health Service, UK
3. Brookings @BrookingsInst 16. Cynthia H. Craft @cynthiahcraft Director of Engagement for
the Association of Health Care Journalists
4. Kaiser Family Foundation @KFF
17. Pia Christensen @AHCJ_Pia Managing editor, Association of
5. RAND Corporation @RANDCorporation
Health Care Journalists
6. Dr. Ian M Mackay @MackayIM Virologist
18. Tedros Ghebreyesus @DrTedros Director-General, WHO
7. Global Virus Network @GlobalVirusNews 19. James Chau @jameschau UN Goodwill Ambassador
8. Dr. Robert Gallo @DrRobertCGallo Director, Institute of 20. UNICEF @UNICEF
Human Virology
21. Henrietta H. Fore @unicefchief UNICEF Executive Director
9. VignuzziLab @VignuzziLab
22. Mona Juul @UNECOSOC United Nations Economic and Social
10. Terry Simpson @terrysimpson Virologist Council (UNECOSOC) President
11. Ministry of Health and Family Welfare @MoHFW_INDIA 23. Minister of Finance and Corporate Affairs @nsitharaman
12. Dr Harsh Vardhan @drharshvardhan Union Minister for 24. Ministry of Finance @FinMinIndia
Health & Family Welfare
13. PIB Fact Check @PIBFactCheck

WhatsApp State COVID-19 Helpline:

WhatsApp continues to publish state helplines across various regions

Delhi: +91 88000-07722 Maharashtra: +91 20261-27394 Punjab: +91 73801-73801

Gujarat: +91 74330-00104 Andhra Pradesh: +91 82971-04104 Odisha: +91 93379-29000
Kerala: +91 90722-20183 Madhya Pradesh: +91 78349-80000
Karnataka: +91 87509-71717 Telangana: +91 90006-58658

Disclaimer: This report is an analysis of media stories and conversations around the developing COVID-19 situation. This report is not an advisory and should not be treated as such.
While we have made an attempt to put in genuine content, please verify any/all information with official sources. MSL, a TLG India Private Limited organisation is not responsible or
liable for the accuracy of any information.