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Group 1 - Market Efficiency, Long Term Returns, and Behavioural Finance
Group 1 - Market Efficiency, Long Term Returns, and Behavioural Finance
Behavioural Finance
Aulia Putranto
Saiful Haqi
MATA KULIAH
Perilaku Keuangan
Over-Reaction and
Under-Reaction: An
Overview
DeBondt and Thaler (1985) find that
year past returns, past winners tend the expected value of abnormal
performance
information in initiations.
Behavioral Models of
Under-Reaction and
Over-Reaction
Tversky (1982).
In the model of stock prices proposed by BSV to capture the two judgment
biases, earnings are a random walk, but investors falsely perceive that there are
reverting
The DHS model has different behavioral foundations than the BSV model
overconfidence
biased self-attribution
subject to judgment
biases
Drawing Inferences
from Long-Term
Returns
period
A. Bad Model Problems
CAPM of Sharpe (1964) and Lintner (1965) does not seem to describe
Types Why?
(i) Any asset pricing model is just a model If an event sample is tilted toward small
and so does not completely describe stocks, risk adjustment with the CAPM can
(ii) Even if there were a true model, any If an event sample is tilted toward sample-
over periods longer than a realized market return) and the actual return often
efficiency.
The Reliability of
Individual Studies
Loughran and Ritter Brav dan Gompers (1996)
(1995)
Membandingkan pengembalian BH lima
sama untuk ukuran IPOS BH lima tahun pada SEO dekat dengan
ukuran dan BE ME
Kesimpulan mengenai pengembalian jangka panjang berdasarkan
αp = intercept
Rpt = pengembalian bulanan pada portofolio IPO atau SEO
Rft = Treasury bill rate
Rmt = tingkat pengembalian perbulan pada saham NYSE, AMEX, NASDAQ
SMB = perbedaan antara pengembalian pada portofolio dari saham besar dan kecil
HML = perbedaan antara pengembalian pada portofolio dari dengan dengan
BE/ME tinggi dan rendah
Dengan menggunakan rumus tersebut, jika portofolio yang digunakan
risiko berubah
kesimpulan
terlalu tinggi
Kesimpulan