FASHION FORECASTING

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 WHAT IS FASHION FORECASTING ?
Fashion forecasting is the prediction of the trends and styles of apparel and accessories
which are new directions in fashion, that the majority of people would like to buy at a
given time and place. It is anticipating the customers wants & needs by Designers,
Merchandisers & Buyers.

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 WHY DO WE NEED TO FORECAST ?
• Fashion – It is the style or styles most popular at a given time. The term
implies 4 components: Style, Acceptance, Taste & Change.

• Because of the above 4 components fashion is cyclic .

• It is impossible to ask consumers what they will want to wear a year or 2

in advance – they would not know themselves.

• Because designers, merchandisers & retailers have to work well ahead of

the season (minimum of 2 seasons) so as to manufacture stocks in time
for the season & to keep the business going they have to learn to
anticipate the customers wants & needs – which in turn is called
forecasting.
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FASHION FORECASTING INCLUDES FOLLOWING ACTIVITIES :-
• Studying market conditions – how the consumers buying
behavior is influenced by society, economics, technology &
the environment

• Noting the lifestyles of the customers

• Feedback from customers

• Past data analysis

• Observing “street fashion” & what celebrities are wearing

• Keeping up with current events, media, arts & the mood of

the public

• Surveying Fashion publications, catalogs, magazines &

fashion websites

• Evaluating popular designer collections

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 TO FORECAST
KNOWING THE
CONSUMER & THE
TARGET MARKET IS
IMPORTANT

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EACH CUSTOMER IS DIFFERENT!

Knowing your consumer :-

• Demographic details

• Income

• Lifestyle

• Brand preferences

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 MARKET RESEARCH
To know the Target market, Market
Research is required. Manufactures
& retailers must constantly research
their target market to learn buying
habits & preferences

It consists of following activities

• CONSUMER RESEARCH
• SHOPPING
• SALES RESEARCH
• TREND ANAYLISIS

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 CONSUMER RESEARCH

• Manufacturers & Retailers may ask consumers about their buying

preferences.

• Consumer reactions are complied & tabulated to find preferences

for certain garments or accessories, colors or sizes.

• This information can be used to create new products to fit specific

consumer tastes.

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 CONSUMER RESEARCH
Can be done in various ways :
• Buyers & sales associates may talk with customers in the store or with store staff.

• Manufacturers or retailers may hire market research companies for surveys by

phone or mail to make inquiries & to hold consumer focus group meetings.

• Consumer focus groups are meetings of target customers usually selected by a

market research firm to meet with manufacturers or retailers. These groups
discuss the pros & cons of merchandise or other aspects of shopping satisfaction.

• Forming a Loyalty Club & getting feedback through mails from the customers

• From the dealers or retailers selling those products

• Analyzing the customer complaints or garments returned

SHOPPING
• To study what consumers want &
need, designers & merchandisers
also “shop” in retail stores to see
what merchandise is selling best.
• Designers & merchandisers
compare the styling, price, fit &
quality of lines that compete with
their own range.
• It also helps in Trend spotting .
There are 2 methods of shopping:
• Directional Shopping
• Comparison shopping
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 DIRECTIONAL SHOPPING
• Directional Shopping - trips to gain
inspiration for design concepts for a
new season.

• Buying team visits stores stocking

merchandise following different
trends.

• Depending on the product type &

the company’s travel budget,
designers & buying teams visit major
fashion cities.
 DIRECTIONAL SHOPPING
• Stores of most influential designers & retailers,
usually in a higher price bracket than the
market they design for are visited.

• They may also visit mass market stores which

are aimed at a younger market & or are more
expensive than their own range.

• Basically the buying team makes notes on

shapes, details, colors & fabrics for reference

• After this entire exercise a picture can be

formed of the key trends which are coming
through.
 DIRECTIONAL SHOPPING
• They return with “bought samples” (notes, sketches & garments)
for inspiration.

• Some times buying teams are given a budget to buy garments

during directional shopping trips.

• London, Paris & New York are destinations popular with designers
for most product types & market levels.

• Milan is often visited by lingerie designers.

• Children's wear designers may find more inspiration in Tokyo.

 DIRECTIONAL SHOPPING
• A directional shopping trip to New
York usually includes visits to
Macy’s, Bloomingdales & Henri
Bendel in Manhattan.
 COMPARATIVE SHOPPING
• Comparative Shopping is often referred
to as “Comp Shop”.

• It refers to apparel associates study to

of rival products sold in retail stores.

• Usually undertaken several times each

season by the buying/design teams.

• Involves observing the current

merchandise in the stores of
competitors which sell comparable
ranges (similar product types & prices).
 COMPARATIVE SHOPPING
• The aim of Comparative Shopping is not to copy
competing retailers’ products.

• It is conducted to be aware of the choice of

merchandise on offer to target customer to ensure
that the company offers consumer value for money
& is aware of developments.
 COMPARATIVE SHOPPING
• Report - sketches & a grid with descriptions of
products compared with prices, fabrics & colours of
similar merchandise from competing stores.
• This report concludes by analyzing how competitors’
ranges compare with each other & noting any
important trends or styles which are missing from
the company’s range.
 SALES RESEARCH – PAST DATA ANAYLISIS
• Every manufacturer & retailer researches
their own sales records.
• Rising sales statistics show what fashion
trends are developing
• Declining sales show what styles have passed
their peak.
• Overall weak sales show that a style is not
meeting consumer needs for fashion,
quantity or fit.
• By careful monitoring sales records, retailers
and merchandisers can see trends.

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 PAST DATA ANAYLISIS
• Each style before going in production is
allocated a Style number for easy
tracking
• Tracking the sell through of each style
number category wise based on the
shelf life
• Collecting the best & the worst
performers
• Analyzing reasons for the same
• Collecting similar data for colors to
arrive at the color palette for the
season

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 OBSERVING TRENDS
• Identifying the product category & its
competitors
• What is their most sought after
product/style?
• Observing the styles, colors or trends
widely used
• Identifying its specialty
• Traveling for International Fairs &
Trade Shows
• Visiting retail outlets
• Compiling the Data & styles

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 TREND ANAYLISIS

• FASHION TREND – Fashion trend are the styling ideas that major
collections have in common. They indicate the direction in which fashion is
moving. The trend may appear in a new or unique fabrication, silhouette,
or other design elements that appears in multiple collections. New trend
appears in small doses until it spreads to other collections. Designers for
mainstream manufacturers analyze the collections to understand trend
• TREND FOR TARGET MARKET – Diverse consumer age segments & lifestyle
create many separate market niches, each with its own trends. With
today's segmented market a trend may be confined to a single market
niche. Designers & merchandisers should be able to decide which trend is
best suited for their consumer group.

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 TIME AND ACTION CALENDAR

It is designed to control the key events

needed to get the
• right apparel products,
• in the right mix,
• at the right price
• to the right customer
• at the right time.

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 A PLANNING TOOL

It is the central mechanism from which

all marketing schedules and all
merchandising and manufacturing plans
evolve.

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 A PLANNING TOOL

It is the clock that drives

merchandising product development
schedules, manufacturing planning and
shipping schedules.

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 A PLANNING TOOL
It sets forth the starting and
completion dates for all critical events
necessary to achieve a successful
season.

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 A PLANNING TOOL
The calendar includes the target dates
for each event such as pre production
garment approval, lab dip approval,
pattern approvals and when graded sates
of pattern should be sent out.

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 A Planning Tool
The calendar includes information
about the name of the buyer, season,
style, wash and quantity.

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 KEY ELEMENTS
• Line preview dates by season.

• Line release dates by season.

• Start ship date

• End ship date

• Weekly sales plan

• Weekly shipping plans

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 LINE PREVIEW DATE
It is the merchandiser’s deadline for
having all prototypes and pricing for a
new product line completed.

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 Line Preview Date
Merchandisers work back from this
date to create their product
development plans.
It is the date of seasonal sales
meeting where the merchandising team
presents the line to the sales force.

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 LINE RELEASE DATE
It is the merchandisers deadline for
having all sales samples ready for the
sales team to begin presenting the new
line to the customers.

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 LINE RELEASE DATE
This deadline is crucial to the success
of the sales effort, since most sales
representative schedule their earliest
appointments with their most
important customers.

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 Weekly Sales Plan

► It measures the effectiveness of a

product line for the merchandising
department.
►A graphic analysis of this plan can
project increase or decrease in overall
sales for a season.

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 Weekly Shipping Plan

It shows season to date as well as

shipping statistics for a specific week or
monthly time period.
It helps to determine whether or not
the product mixes being delivered to
distribution meet the ship ability.

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 DETERMINATION OF LEAD TIME
CPM is used.
•It is the key to a successful
merchandising calendar.
It determines the critical functions
necessary to perform an activity or series
of activities required to achieve an overall
objective.
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 DETERMINATION OF LEAD TIME
After the critical functions are
selected, each one must be analyzed to
determine the time required to
accomplish it.

A typical merchandising calendar may

have 25 to 50 functions for a product
line.
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 CRITICAL PATH METHOD
It defines critical and non-critical tasks
with the goal of preventing time-frame
problems and process bottlenecks.
The length of the critical path
determines the minimum time in which
the entire project can be completed.

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 CRITICAL PATH METHOD
It highlights those activities which
must be performed very rapidly, if the
total project completion time is to be
reduced.

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 CRITICAL PATH METHOD
Specify the individual activities.
Determine the sequence of those
activities.
Draw a network diagram.

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 CRITICAL PATH METHOD
Estimate the completion time for each
activity.
Identify the critical path (longest path
through the network)

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 SIGNIFICANCE OF CPM
CPM is the key to successful
merchandising calendar.
It determines the critical functions necessary to
perform an activity or series of activities
required to achieve an overall objective.
When a critical activity is delayed it forces all
subsequent tasks to be delayed.

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 DETERMINING CRITICAL PATH
•The activities involved in development,
execution and delivery need to be
analyzed.
•Determine the time required to
accomplish them.
•Determine the critical path.

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