Social Science L4 P1

Questions 1-11 are based on the following passage.
Adapted from Colin Butler, "Human Carrying Capacity and Human
Health." © 2004 by Colin Butler. The passage refers to carrying
capacity, or the maximum population size of a species that an
environment can support.
he question of human overpopulation and its relationship
to human carrying capacity has been controversial for over
two centuries. In 1798 the Reverend homas Malthus put
Line forward the hypothesis that population growth would exceed
5 the growth of resources, leading to the periodic reduction of
human numbers by either “positive checks”, such as disease,
famine, and war, or “preventive checks”, by which (in the
absence of contraception) Malthus meant restrictions on
marriage. his “Malthusian view” was rapidly accepted by
10 most politicians, demographers, and the general public, and
remained popular until fairly recently.
Malthus's worst fears were not borne out through the
century following his death in 1834—food production largely
kept pace with the slowly growing global population.
15 However, soon ater 1934, the global population began to
rise steeply as antibiotics, vaccines, and technology increased
life expectancy. By the 1960s, concerns of a mismatch
between global population and global food supply
peaked—expressed in books such as Paul Ehrlich's 1968 he
20 Population Bomb. his book predicted a future scarred by
increasing famine, epidemic, and war—the three main
Malthusian positive checks.
In 1966, United States President Lyndon Johnson shipped
wheat to India to avert a famine on the condition that the
25 country accelerate its already vigorous family planning
campaign. Johnson was part of an unbroken series of US
presidents concerned with the harmful efects of rapid
population growth in developing countries. his line
extended (at least) from John F. Kennedy to Jimmy Carter.
30 George H. W. Bush was also sympathetic to this view, prior
to becoming vice president in 1981.
But the 1970s surprised population watchers. Instead of
being a period shadowed by calamitous famine, the new crop
of energy in the global diet. Among the development
community, despair turned into cautious optimism. By the
end of the decade, the public health community felt
40 suiciently empowered to proclaim “Health for All by the
Year 2000”. Average life expectancy continued to zoom
upwards almost everywhere.
he introduction of safe contraception contributed to a
rapid fertility decline in many countries. But while the rate of
45 global population growth declined from its peak in the late
1960s, the absolute increment of increase in annual global
population continued to grow. Most population-related
scientists, including food scientists and demographers, as
well as US President Jimmy Carter, continued to be very
50 concerned about global overpopulation. In 1970, the father of
the Green Revolution, the agricultural scientist Norman
Borlaug, was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize. In his Nobel
lecture, Borlaug warned that the success of the Green
Revolution would buy a breathing space for humankind of
55 three decades, unless equivalent action was taken to reduce
fertility rates.
Historical and Projected World Population Growth, 1950-2100;
UN Estimates Based on Rates of Fertility.
Adapted from Elizabeth Leahy Madsen, "How Did We Arrive at Seven Billion
- and Where Do We Go From Here?" ©2011 by Environmental Change and
Security Program, Woodrow Wilson Informational Center for Scholars.

strains introduced by the “Green Revolution” (especially

35 grains such as rice, wheat, and maize) caused a dramatic
increase in the global production of cereals, the main source

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 Social Science
1 4
The primary purpose of the passage is to
A) assert that global overpopulation will cease to be
a threat because new methods of food supply and
contraception will keep it at bay indefinitely.
B) raise the argument that the global population
has increased in the twentieth century due to
vaccines, antibiotics, and technological advances
in health care.
C) introduce the idea that global population growth
has continued to be a serious concern despite
advances in agriculture and contraception.
D) emphasize that government policies concerning
family planning and food production are
absolutely necessary in keeping global population
growth under control.
5
2
The author implies that Reverend Thomas Malthus
was influential because he
A) correctly predicted the future outcomes of global
overpopulation.
B) developed a framework for balancing population
growth and resources.
6
C) was right about a potential lack of food even
though he was wrong about overpopulation.
D) invited controversial debates regarding population
control and its risks.
L4 P1
In the second paragraph (lines 12–20), the words
“fears,” “concerns” and “scarred” primarily serve to
A) characterize potential outcomes of the impending
global shortage of cereal grains.
B) emphasize the anxiety and uncertainty
surrounding predictions regarding
overpopulation.
C) contrast critical predictions with an ultimately
positive outcome resulting from increased life
expectancies.
D) establish a history of apprehension regarding
overpopulation and its influence on incorrect
future prognoses.
In line 30, "sympathetic to" most nearly means
A) caring for.
B) agreeable with.
C) supportive of.
D) compassionate toward.
The author's discussion of the “Green Revolution” in
paragraph 4 (line 34) primarily serves to
A) provide a positive contrast to the dire predictions
made elsewhere in the passage.

3 B) reassure readers that unexpected agricultural

inventions mean they have nothing to fear.
Which choice provides the best evidence for the
C) offer evidence that alternative outcomes to
answer to the previous question?
overpopulation and famine are possible and likely.
A) lines 3–9 (“In . . . marriage”)
D) warn readers not to be lulled into a false sense
B) lines 9–11 (“This . . . recently”) of security by a small number of beneficial
C) lines 12–14 (“Malthus’s . . . population”) agricultural advances.

D) lines 15–17 (“However . . . expectancy”)

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 Social Science L4 P1
7 10
It can reasonably be inferred that Borlaug viewed the According to the graph, if the High Fertility rate is
dramatic increase in cereal production as maintained
A) a smart move certain to eradicate future famines A) the world’s population will return to 1950 levels
and keep the global population balanced. by the year 2100.
B) an untested approach based on the belief that the B) the world’s population will roughly double
risk of overpopulation outweighs the benefits of between 2010 and 2100.
reducing hunger.
C) the world’s population will remain constant
C) a quick fix that will be unsuccessful in keeping between 2010 and 2100.
the global population in check even if additional
D) the world’s population will approximately
measures are undertaken.
quadruple between 2010 and 2100.
D) a partial solution to global overpopulation that
will fail if other factors are not addressed.
11

8 The graph indicates that the population projections

for Constant Fertility and High Fertility rates begin to
Which choice provides the best evidence for the diverge significantly in which time span?
answer to the previous question?
A) 2000-2020
A) lines 41–42 (“Average . . . everywhere”)
B) 2020-2040
B) lines 44–47 (“But . . . grow”)
C) 2040-2060
C) lines 47–50 (“Most . . . overpopulation”)
D) 2060-2080
D) lines 50–56 (“In . . . rates”)

9
How does the graph relate to the passage?
A) It demonstrates the truth of the assertion
that fertility rates will match increasing food
production over the next century.
B) It illustrates the point that the rate of global
population growth has declined since the 1960s
due to contraception.
C) It provides support for the idea that there will be
a drastic increase in global population if fertility
rates remain constant.
D) It reinforces the claim that the Green Revolution
will be able to meet the needs of a rising
population.

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