Case Study on

For Strategic Sustainable City Planning

Misaj S & Sujitha David

Department Of Computer Science
M.Tech S1

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 Backcasting is a planning method that starts with defining a
desirable future and then works backwards to identify policies
and programs that will connect that specified future to the
present

 Formulated by John B. Robinson from the University of

Waterloo in 1990

 The fundamental question of backcasting asks: "if we want to

attain a certain goal, what actions must be taken to get there?”

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 Forecasting Backcasting
Involves predicting the future based Approaches the challenge of
on current trend analysis discussing the future from the
opposite direction

Prediction of the future (unknown) Prediction of the unknown values of

values of the dependent the independent variables
variables based on known values of that might have existed, in order to
the independent variables explain the known values of the
dependent variable

Applied to a long-term perspective Develop the normative scenarios

but restricted presumptions of the and actions, where the results
possibilities of major change fail to describe a possible and desirable
reach sustainability future with criteria for sustainability

In statistics and data analysis, backcasting is the opposite of forecasting

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1. We need to think long term (over 10 years)
2. Business and cities need positive goals to create positive
change and flourish
3. Backcasting helps to navigate beyond and with disruptive
changes

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 In a workshop format with stakeholders participating
 Known as Backcasting Workshop

 A group of
stakeholders are asked
to create ideal future
scenarios
 Then they work
backwards as a group
to figure out what is
needed to get to the
ideal states from the
current state

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 Case Study on

Aumnad Phdungsilp, Dhurakij Pundit University, Futures 43 (2011) 707–714

doi:10.1016/j.futures.2011.05.012

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 Sustainable development can be defined as a constraint on
present consumption to ensure that future generations will
inherit opportunities that is no less than the inheritance of
previous generations.
 It can be said that sustainability concerns issues of both
technology and equity.
 The problems that cities face today may be similar to those
cities in the future but with greater compounding affects.
 Consequently, policy actions for developing sustainable city
futures ought to be applied, tested and transferred to help
solve problems for other cities.

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 This paper aims to look at several questions:
◦ What are the futures studies methodologies available for
creating different city futures and how they have been
applied to a real situation?
◦ How backcasting can be used within strategic city planning?
◦ How can engineers and planners improve the integration
and sustainability of various systems in a comprehensive
manner including urban energy, transportation, urban
structure, water and waste management and food
production?

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 The aim of futures studies is to get a better understanding of
future opportunities. Futures studies goes beyond predicting
the future.
 Since forecasting is based on dominant trends, this method is
unlikely to generate solutions that presuppose the breaking
of trends. This would be a problem for urban planning in the
long run due to the discontinuities most likely to occur.
 Backcasting provides an interesting alternative approach for
the exploration of city futures.

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 The applicability of the backcasting method is shown in
figure. The letter ‘‘A’’ represents directional studies while ‘‘B’’
is forecasting studies and ‘‘C’’ is backcasting.
 The shaded area represents states where the targets may be
reached. Both the scale and the unit of y-axis (target
fulfillment) are explicitly normative.
 Therefore, scenarios that do fulfill the target are generated
with the help of a suitable scenario method.

 However, backcasting
would be useful as it seeks
understanding what the
future could look like
while the targets are met.

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 Robinson’s backcasting approach
 The Natural Step backcasting approach
 STD backcasting approach

◦ The selection of these approaches was based on their

application in a range of projects and programs such as
 Project Go¨teborg 2050 (Sweden)
 STD (Sustainable Technology Development Program- the
Netherlands)
 The Natural Step (TNS)
 International Solar Cities Initiative

 These projects or programs have applied different kinds of

backcasting approaches or methodologies in connection with
sustainability.

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 A backcasting approach which is explicitly normative and
design-oriented.
 Aim: To explore the implications of alternative development
paths.
 Robinson (also founder of backcasting concept) states that
‘‘in order to undertake backcasting analysis, future goals and
objectives need to be defined, and then used to develop a
future scenario’’
 Key assumptions
◦ Criteria for social and environmental desirability
are set externally to the analysis
◦ Goal-oriented
◦ Policy-oriented
◦ Design-oriented
◦ System-oriented
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 Methodology
1. Determine objectives
2. Specify goals, constraints and targets, and describe present
system and specify exogenous variables
3. Describe present system and its material flows
4. Specify exogenous variables and inputs
5. Undertake scenario construction
6. Undertake scenario impact analysis

 Examples of methods
◦ Social, economic, environmental impact analysis
◦ Scenario construction methodologies
◦ System analysis and modeling

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 TNS- The Natural Step
 An approach based on the way of thinking that the future
itself cannot be predicted, but by viewing the physical
principles of the ecosystem, a framework or set of principles
can be set to describe the future.
 The future sustainable situation is based on four system
conditions (Methodology), which should be simultaneously
valid in a sustainable society.

 Key assumptions
◦ Decreasing resource usage
◦ Decreasing emissions
◦ Safeguarding biodiversity and ecosystem
◦ Efficient utilization of resources in line with the
equity principle
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 Methodology
1. Define a framework and criteria for sustainability
2. Describe the current situation in relation to that framework
3. Envisage a future sustainable situation
4. Find strategies for sustainability

 Examples of methods
◦ Creativity techniques
◦ Strategy development
◦ Employee involvement
◦ Employee training

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 STD- Sustainable Technology Development
 An approach that includes broad stakeholder participation,
future visions or normative scenarios, and the use of creativity to
reach beyond existing mind sets and paradigms.
 This initiative focus on achieving sustainable need fulfillment in
the distant future

 Key assumptions
◦ Sustainable future need fulfillment
◦ Factor 20
◦ Time horizon of 40–50 years
◦ Co-evolution of technology and society
◦ Stakeholder participation
◦ Focus on realizing follow-up

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 Methodology
1. Strategic problem orientation
2. Develop sustainable future vision
3. Set out alternative solutions
4. Explore options and identify bottlenecks
5. Select among options and set up action plans
6. Set up co-operation agreements
7. Implement research agenda
 Examples of methods
◦ Stakeholder analysis
◦ Employee training
◦ Problem analysis
◦ Technology analysis
◦ Construction of future visions

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 A research project that works with Long-term sustainable
images of the future in order to increase the possibilities of
reaching a sustainable world.
 Aim- to draw up and develop long-term visions for the city of
Go¨teborg, Sweden to be a sustainable city.

 Objectives:
◦ to develop, compile and spread knowledge of a sustainable society
◦ to stimulate research about long-term development
◦ to provide a basis for municipal and regional planning, and strategic
development
◦ implementation of different demonstrations and pilot projects
 Knowledge and research results are brought out to both
societal actors and the public.

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 4 Steps
1. Description of the present and trends analysis
2. Setting criteria and goals (sustainability)
3. Developing images of the future
4. Analysis of how to reach the images

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 Step 1: Identify the problem and to make a description of the
present situation. Existing trends in the areas of focus are
analyzed, including energy systems, transportation, urban
structure, eco-cycling, and food.
 Step 2: Choose criteria, goals, and limitations for the study.
External factors that might affect the scenario, such as
population and changes of lifestyle patterns, have been taken
into consideration.
 Step 3: Develops one or several alternative images of the
future based on the basis of criteria and goals chosen in step
two. This step is considered the core of the backcasting study
because it illustrates a solution to a major problem.
 Step 4: Analyze the possibilities to reach the society
described in the alternative images

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 The Solar City Go¨teborg 2050
◦ visions and images of the future were developed for strategic
energy planning.
 The Transportation Go¨teborg 2050
◦ visions and images were used to develop a long-term
sustainable transport system
 The Urban Design Go¨teborg 2050
◦ visions and images were developed to explore ideas for
sustainable urban design
 The Eco-Cycling Go¨teborg 2050
◦ visions and images were developed for sustainable water and
waste management
 The Food Go¨teborg 2050
◦ visions and images were used for developing long-term
strategies for a sustainable food and grocery chain

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 A UK initiative currently in progress that employs the
backcasting approach-www.transitiontowns.org
 Aim: Transitioning to a lower energy future and to greater
levels of community resilience, in response to peak oil and
climate change.
 The process encourages an integrated and inclusive approach
to reduce a community’s carbon foot print and increase their
ability to with stand the fundamental shift that will
accompany peak oil.
 Energy Descent Action Pathway:
◦ This action plan sets the aim of this initiative. The plan looks at
most aspects of life, including energy, food, tourism, education
and health.

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 The Project Go ¨teborg 2050 and The Transition Town Initiative
 Similarities
◦ Both have same overall objective i.e., to build a lower energy future
◦ Both use backcasting to develop action plans from a shared vision of the future.
◦ Both encourage local people to create a vision of their city.
 Differences
The Project Go ¨teborg 2050 The Transition Town Initiative
Research project in its nature thus seems Localized community action learning with
theoretical formal structures and constitutions
Tries to develop, compile and spread Provides a set of criteria, steps of transition
knowledge of sustainable society and guidelines for participants
Driving factor is to achieve the sustainable Drivers factors are peak oil and climate
society that is defined by the project’s change
participants.
The concept of sustainability is clarified by Raising awareness on the above issues as
stakeholders, which leads to a shared vision points of discussion for global sustainability
of the future city shapes ideas in creating a vision
The Transition Town Initiative looks more practical than the Project Go ¨teborg 2050
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 In this paper, the Swedish exercise in the Project Go ¨teborg
2050 shows that backcasting is a complimentary tool for
sustainable city planning.
 It provides a process for achieving a desirable future state.
Engineers and planners can use backcasting processes with
stakeholders to develop community action plans.
 It enhances capacity so that cities can manage current and
future problems and have theories and methods to anticipate
future problems.

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 A. Phdungsilp, Futures studies’ backcasting method used for
strategic sustainable city planning, Futures 43 (2011) 707–714.
 J. Holmberg, Backcasting: a natural step in operationalising
sustainable development, Greener Management International
23 (1998) 30–51.
 P. Weaver, L. Jansen, G. van Grootveld, E. van Spiegel, P.
Vergragt, Sustainable Technology Development, Greenleaf
Publishers, Sheffield, UK, 2000.
 J.B. Robinson, Future subjunctive: backcasting as social
learning, Futures 35 (2003) 839–856.
 K.H. Dreborg, Essence of backcasting, Futures 28 (1996) 813–
828.
 H. Eek, J. Swahn, Solstad Go¨teborg 2050, Project Go¨teborg
2050.

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