Trade Quest

Strategy Presentation
Al Muharraq Secondary School

Investment Advisor: School Advisors:

Walaa Turki Omar Aldakheel Talal Thani
 Team Members
Team Member Role

Ali Dailami Team Leader

Mohamed Hajani US Analyst

Kerolos Khela US Economist

Jawad Bakhsh BH Analyst

Evram Wasili BH Economist

Mohammed Rezk Risk Manager

Moemen Elmeslhy Record Keeper

Yazan Alshikh Trader

Our Agenda
● Client Profile

● Market Research
● Market Analysis

● Investment Strategy
● Investment Process
● Risk Management
Client Profile:
Identity: Felix Kjellberg, 32
Portfolio: Individual

Place of Amwaj Islands

Residency:
Current 4,000,000 USD (US Market)
Assets: 500,000 BHD (BH Market)

Objectives: • Short term growth

• Risk Profile: Moderately Aggressive
• Time Horizon: 4 months
• Goal:
Achieve 7% returns from US Market
Achieve 3% returns from BH Market
 Overview of
The US Economy
Source: https://www.spglobal.com/ratings/en/research/articles/210923-economic-outlook-u-s-q4-2021-the-rocket-is-leveling-off-12120697
 Key
Takeways:
• The U.S. economy has cooled somewhat but
remains resilient.
• We expect the Fed to begin tapering asset
purchases in December (after announcing it in
November) and policy rate lift-off in December
2022.
• Government debates on infrastructure,
funding, and the debt ceiling are near-term risks.
Longer term, the high level of corporate debt,
much of it speculative-grade ('BB+' and below), is
a cause for concern.
Source: https://www.spglobal.com/ratings/en/research/articles/210923-economic-outlook-u-s-q4-2021-the-rocket-is-leveling-off-12120697
 S&P U.S. Economic Forecast Overview
Key Indicator 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Real GDP (year %) (3.4) 5.7 4.1 2.5 2.2
Real consumer spending (year %) (3.8) 8.1 4.0 2.5 2.4
Real equipment investment (year %) (8.3) 13.9 5.2 3.4 3.0
Real nonresidential structures
investment (year %) (12.5) (7.2) 1.8 2.5 4.1

Real residential investment (year %) 6.8 10.3 (3.2) (1.2) 0.3

Core CPI (year %) 1.7 3.3 2.7 2.5 2.4
Unemployment Rate (year %) 8.1 5.5 4.3 3.6 3.2
Housing starts (annual total in mil.) 1.4 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.5
Light Vehicle Sales (annual total in mil.)
14.6 15.8 16.8 16.8 16.7

Federal Reserve's fed funds policy target

rate range (year %) 0-0.25 0-0.25 0.25-0.50 0.75-1.00 1.25-1.50

Source: https://www.spglobal.com/ratings/en/research/articles/210923-economic-outlook-u-s-q4-2021-the-rocket-is-leveling-off-12120697
The US Economy – An Analysis
Source: https://insight.factset.com/sp-500-earnings-season-update-october-29-2021
Sector Performance
Information Technology

Strategy: Overweight

Total Market Cap $16.49T

P/E (This Year's Estimate) 36.18
EPS Growth (TTM vs. Prior TTM) 45.65%
Return on Equity (TTM) 50.51%

Return on Investment (TTM) 22.50%

Source: https://eresearch.fidelity.com/eresearch/markets_sectors/sectors/sectors_in_market.jhtml?tab=learn&sector=45
Sector Performance
Energy

Strategy: Underweight

Total Market Cap $2.95T

P/E (This Year's Estimate) 14.55
EPS Growth (TTM vs. Prior TTM) 598.20%
Return on Equity (TTM) 25.95%

Return on Investment (TTM) 0.81%

Source: https://eresearch.fidelity.com/eresearch/markets_sectors/sectors/sectors_in_market.jhtml?tab=learn&sector=10
Overview of The
Economy of
Bahrain
Source: https://www.mofne.gov.bh/Files/cdoc/CI1821-BEQ%20Q2%202021%20EN.pdf
 Key Takeways:
• The Bahraini economy registered annual nominal growth of 20.7%
and real growth of 5.7% in Q2 2021 compared to Q2 2020.
• The non-oil sector recovery of 12.8% in nominal terms and 7.8%
in real terms in Q2 2021, comes as all the major economic
sectors registered an annual growth.
• The regional context is becoming increasingly favorable with
most regional economies returning to growth.
• The global economy is continuing to recover despite some flare-
ups.

Source: https://www.mofne.gov.bh/Files/cdoc/CI1821-BEQ%20Q2%202021%20EN.pdf
 The Effect of Inflation on GDP Growth

Source: https://www.mofne.gov.bh/Files/cdoc/CI1821-BEQ%20Q2%202021%20EN.pdf
Consumer Price Inflation

Source: https://www.mofne.gov.bh/Files/cdoc/CI1821-BEQ%20Q2%202021%20EN.pdf
The Bahrain Economy – An Analysis
 Market Performance

Year BAH All Market Cap Value of % of Non Volume of % of Non No. of Shares PE (Times) No. of
Share * Shares Bahraini Shares Bahraini Trans. Turnover( Listed
Index Traded* (Value) Traded* (Volume) %) Companies

2021 (Q3) 1,705.56 10,264 49.89 27.55 204.45 25.70 5,387 0.46 19.31 43

2021 (Q2) 1,587.97 9,889 42.27 27.76 269.10 33.99 4,532 0.43 17.82 43

2021 (Q1) 1,458.03 9,080 60.37 22.31 323.07 23.22 5,498 0.60 16.04 43

2020 (Q4) 1,489.78 9,277 48.88 16.94 270.53 14.20 5,250 0.53 11.29 43

2020 (Q3) 1,434.49 8,902 49.54 18.48 351.72 11.64 5,222 0.56 10.85 43

Source: https://www.bahrainbourse.com/marketperformance
 Equity Performance:
Financials (Overweight)
Financials
Ahli United Bank B.S.C. AUB Solidarity Bahrain B.S.C. SOLID

Bahrain Islamic Bank B.S.C. BISB Arab Insurance Group ARIG

B.S.C.
Arab Banking Corporation B.S.C. ABC Bahrain Kuwait Insurance BKIC
Company B.S.C.
Commercial Bank B.S.C. KHCB Bahrain National Holding BNH
Company B.S.C.
Al Salam Bank - Bahrain B.S.C. SALAM Takaful International TAKAFUL
Company B.S.C.
Bank of Bahrain and Kuwait B.S.C. BBK GFH Financial Group GFH
B.S.C.
National Bank of Bahrain B.S.C. NBB Bahrain Commercial BCFC
Facilities Company B.S.C.
Al Baraka Banking Group B.S.C. BARKA Investment Company ESTERAD
B.S.C.
⚑ Holding B.S.C. ITHMR United Gulf Holding UGH
Company B.S.C.
INOVEST B.S.C. INOVEST United Gulf Investment UGIC
Corporation B.S.C.
Bahrain Middle East Bank B.S.C. BMB
(Suspended)

⚑ Companies with accumulated losses of 75% or more of its share capital

Source: https://www.bahrainbourse.com/equities
Equity Performance:
Consumer Discretionary (Underweight)
Consumer Discretionary

⚑ Bahrain Family Leisure FAMILY

Company B.S.C.
⚑ Banader Hotels Company BANADER
B.S.C.
National Hotels Company NHOTEL
B.S.C.
Bahrain Duty Free Shop DUTYF
Complex B.S.C.
Gulf Hotels Group B.S.C. GHG

⚑ Companies with accumulated losses of 20% or more and less than 50% of its
share capital
⚑ Companies with accumulated losses of 50% or more and less than 75% of its
share capital
⚑ Companies with accumulated losses of 75% or more of its share capital

Source: https://www.bahrainbourse.com/equities
Investment

Strategies
US Market
US Market Strategy:
Information Overweight Utilities Marketweight
Technology
Financials Overweight Health Marketweight

Consumer Overweight Energy Underweight

Discretionary
Communication Marketweight Materials Underweight
Services
Real Estate Marketweight Industrials Underweight

Consumer Marketweight
Staples
Strategy: Moderately Aggressive

Aggressive
Energy, 10% 70%

Industrials, 10% Info. Tech.,

30%

Materials, 10%

Conservative
Consumer 30%
Disc., 20% Financials, 20%
Investment Process:

Indicators News

Sector Analysis

Risk
Objectives Sector
Management
Companies

Our Portfolio
 Risk Management

Take Profit Assess Sell

5-10% >10%

Stop Loss Assess Sell

5-7% >7%
Bahrain Market
BH Market Strategy:
Consumer Staples Overweight Utilities Marketweight

Financials Overweight Health Marketweight

Materials Overweight Energy Marketweight

Real Estate Marketweight Information Marketweight

Technology

Communication Marketweight Consumer Underweight

Services Discretionary

Industrials Marketweight
Strategy: Conservative

Conservative
Consumer 90%
Disc., 10

Finacials, 35
Consumer
Staples, 25

Aggressive
10%
Materials, 30
Investment Process:

Indicators News

Companies

Risk
Objectives Sector
Management
Sector Analysis

Our Portfolio
 Risk Management

Take Profit Assess Sell

4-7% >7%

Stop Loss Assess Sell

1-3% >3%
Basis of
Analysis:

Qualitative:
News
Analyst Reports
Analyst Recommendations

Quantitative:
ROE
ROA
EPS
ROI
P/E
 Basis of Risk Management Strategy:

01 02
Diversification of Diversification of
Sectors Stocks

04 03
Avoiding Stocks with a Monitoring of
Beta Greater Than 2 TradeQuest Rules
Thank
You