Case Study

Title: Flood forecasting system in Bangladesh.

Abstract:
Bangladesh has one of the largest and flattest river deltas in the world. Three major rivers, the
Ganges, the Brahmaputra, and the Meghna, pass through Bangladesh but 93% of their total
catchment area of about 1 .7 million sq. km. rivers lie outside the country in India, China, Nepal,
and Bhutan. Bangladesh has an average annual rainfall aI about 2, 300 mm, with a range of 1500
to 5,000 mm.
it also has a unique coastline with a conical shape that causes the sea level to be higher during
the monsoon months. As a result of the unique topography, river system, and rainfall pattern,
floods occur in Bangladesh almost every year, and devasting floods once every 5 to 10 years.
Bangladesh has taken many struclural and non Structural measures in order to manage floods.
One of the main non-structural measures is its flood forecasting and raining system, which has
undergone continuous improvement since fee 1970s. What started as a very rudimentary system
of food forecasting has now developed into a system that used the most advanced real-time flood
forecasting as tiny tools including the Mike ’00 Hydrodynamic Model, which uses interactive GIS
and can show flood inundation with a digital elevation map. This paper discusses the
development of the flood forecasting and warning system in Bangladesh from its inception in the
1970s through to the latest and most advanced system now in use.

Introduction:
Bangladesh contains one of the largest deltas in the world with three major river systems, the
Ganges, the Brahmaputra, and the Meghna, flowing through the country. The total catchment
area of these three rivers is 1.7 million sq. km but nearly 93% of this lies beyond Bangladesh in
Bhutan, China, India, and Nepal. The combined maximum flow of the two major rivers, the
Ranges and the Brahmaputra is about 1 20,000 cumecs and their estimated combined annual
sediment flow is about
1.8 billion tonnes. Almost all of Bangladesh’s land area was formed through the siltation
of these river systems. As a result, the land is very flat and prone to flooding every year. At times
when there is excessive rainfall simultaneously in all three catchments, the flood situation
becomes critical and can be devastating. At least 10 major flood events have occurred in
Bangladesh during the last half-century, and of these, four were
devastating. The incidence of flooding has increased over the last two decades with an
accompanying increase in flood damage compared to earlier floods. Since the early
1960S Bangladesh has implemented a good number of small, medium, and large flood Control
and drainage (FCD) projects and these now cover about 30% of the land area. Even so, these
structural measures still cannot restrict flooding. Experience over the years has shown that
complete flood control in a country like Bangladesh is neither Possible nor feasible. Realizing this,
Bangladesh started developing a flood forecasting and warning system (FFWS) as a major non-
structural measure for flood management.
Types of Flood forecasting
Flood forecasting can be divided into two categories:
• Flood forecasting in the rivers caused by upstream rise of river stage as well as rainfall in the
basin.
• Overland flow from upstream
• Flash flood forecasting in small basins generally induced by heavy localized rainfall and
characterized by sharp rise and fall.

The present operational flood forecasting in Bangladesh is said to be satisfactory for situations
trapped by rivers for a limited lead time and is not so for overland access and flash flood. In all
the cases, mathematical hydraulic models are used with updating procedures for forecasting. A
calibrated and verified model with 2400 computational points is in use. The observed water level
boundary is used in the upstream boundary with an estimation of rainfall. The output is
presented in a model interfaced GIS format. This facilitates the production of flood maps in
addition to forecast hydrographs.

Weaknesses of the present flood forecasting system

Weaknesses of the present flood forecasting system in Bangladesh can be seen as follows:
• Present Flood Forecasting model cannot be extended beyond the geographical border of
Bangladesh as the limited and discontinuous data available from outside Bangladesh can not
support a meaningful model to provide a larger lead time. Some hydrometric data are sent to
FFWC when water levels in some upstream rivers cross danger levels (or close to danger levels).
But these data are not sufficient to extend the model beyond the country’s geographical
boundary (and even not sufficient to investigate correlation among gauge stations inside
Bangladesh area).
• Therefore present forecast is carried out only up to 72 hours.
• Forecast for 72 hour is good only at central region of the country as stations closer to
boundaries are influenced by the subjective boundary estimates.
• Operational flood forecasting is highly dependent upon reliable and timely data. At present
data are collected manually from gauges. These data are sometimes erroneous and data with
shorter intervals are not available (at present 3-hourly data for non-tidal and 1- hourly for tidal
stations).
• No quantitative rainfall forecasts are available in Bangladesh (BMD provides only qualitative
rainfall forecast for the next 24 hours) and, therefore, subject estimates are made for rainfall for
the next 72 hours.
• Available Digital Elevation Model (DEM) is coarse and not sufficient to produce good inundation
maps.
• Flood plain interventions and embankment breach information are very much qualitative .

Developing flood forecasting services

Bangladesh Water Development Board (the Board) is responsible for flood management through
structural and non-structural measures. It also provides hydrological services in Bangladesh. As
part of non-structural measures, the Board has been providing flood forecasting and warning
services through its Flood Forecasting and Warning Centre (FFWC), established in 1972. Since
then, the development of flood forecasting and warning services has made stepwise progress,
which can be divided into three stages.
Initial stage (1972–1988) Initially, 11-gauge points were used for real-time flood monitoring and
forecast purposes. In this early phase, gauge-to-gauge statistical correlation and Muskingum–
Cunge methods were used for predicting water levels. In 1981, WMO and the United Nations
Development Programme provided technical assistance for computerization of the hydrological
database. Computer programs were also developed to carry out operations that had previously
been performed manually. During devastating floods in 1987 and 1988, flood forecasts of the
major river systems proved to be fairly accurate.
Second stage (1989–1999) After the 1987 and 1988 floods, an initiative was launched to develop
a flood forecasting system based on a numerical model. WMO engaged the Danish Hydraulic
Institute (DHI) to create a flood forecasting model for Bangladesh. During 1989–1991, the
national flood forecasting model was developed using a MIKE 11 modelling system. From 1991,
additional deterministic flood forecasting efforts were pursued, resulting in forecast lead times
being increased to 48 hours. The number of real-time forecasting stations was increased to 16.
From 1995 to 1999, the flood forecasting model was further upgraded to improve its forecast
accuracy, under the Bangladesh Flood Action Plan. A geographic information system (GIS)
module was added to the flood forecasting model, and the number of stations used to support
forecast modelling was increased from 16 to 30.
Bangladesh again experienced severe flooding in 1998, for which the flood forecasting and
warning services yielded productive and successful results. An internal analysis of the 1998 flood
concluded that flood forecasting and warning services should be extended to all flood-prone
areas of the country. In addition, the need for dissemination of flood information to vulnerable
communities became very evident.
Third stage (2000 to date) Many lessons were learned from the 1998 floods. Foremost was that
the people of vulnerable communities require flood information with a greater lead time.
Further, they wish to know when their homesteads are going to be inundated and for how long.
This showed that people were demanding area-specific flood forecasts. Moreover, field-level
flood and water-related disaster managers also expressed their eagerness to receive timely flood
forecasting information. In this third stage, FFWC received support to improve the accuracy and
extend the lead time of flood forecasts, expand the provision of flood forecasting services to all
flood-prone areas of the country, improve flood information dissemination at the vulnerable
community level and build a sustainable institution.
FFWC efforts focused on improving the forecast lead time. It started to use ensemble
precipitation forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts to
provide medium-range flood forecasts. Since 2004, FFWC has provided deterministic flood
forecasts to 3 days and medium-range probabilistic forecasts to 10 days. FFWC also started to
develop its basin model in 2012.
Coastal flood forecasting
One third of Bangladesh is vulnerable to coastal-influenced flooding; this is expected to worsen
due to the effects of climate change. The coastal area can experience flooding during
astronomical high tides as well as due to tropical cyclones, or both combined. In addition, flood
waters from the Ganges, Brahmaputra and Meghna rivers can be confronted with coastal
saltwater intrusion, compounding the overland flooding of Bangladesh’s low-lying areas.
The WMO Coastal Inundation Forecasting Demonstration Project was carried out in Bangladesh
from 2011 to 2017. Previously, this part of Bangladesh had not received operational flood
forecasting services due to the complex interaction of coastal and overland flooding processes,
including storm surges that may reach several metres at the coast. It is essential that additional
efforts be undertaken to maintain and strengthen this new coastal inundation forecasting
system, to enhance operationalization of such flood forecasting services delivering flood
warnings for the coastal region of Bangladesh

PRESENT HYDRO METEOROLOGICAL DATA COLLECTION AND FLOODFORECASTING SYSTEM

The flood forecasting technology and tools comprise of their core components, which includes
dataacquisition network, flood forecasting/modelling systems and the dissemination of forecasts
andwarning.The basis of Flood Forecasting and warning is the monitoring of rainfall and water
level measurementsand the data at filed stations are used to both interpret the present food
situation and also to predictfuture flooding. The data acquisition process can be divided into four
separate parts and these are
# A near real time monitoring system under BWDB covering Bangladesh with which rainfalland
water level measurements are collected.
# A data exchange agreement with India through which FFWC obtains rainfall and water levelin
India.
# Meteorological data from Bangladesh Meteorological department (BMD)
The data acquired by FFWC are processed and stored in a database, from where they are
accessed bynumerical models which form the basis of flood forecasting and warning systems.
The flood watchsystem integrates the data with the modelling system.MIKE 11, a one
dimensional river modelling system developed by DHI Water & Environment,Denmark has been
used FFWC to compute water level and discharge in the river systems. FFWC produce s water
level forecasts at 38 gauge stations on different rivers up to 72 hours. (FFWC, 2011)
MEDIUM AND LONG-RANGE FLOOD FORECASTING INITIATIVES
FFWC took initiative to introduce medium and long range probabilistic forecast with the
technicalsupport from Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences (PAOS) at the University of
Colorado/Georgia Institute of Technology (GATECH), Atlanta USA. The initiative is known as
“Climate Forecast Application in Bangladesh” (CFAB) and funded by the USAID office of Foreign
Disaster Assistance(USAID/OFDA). The task of the PAOS /GATECH group was to increase the lead-
time of floodforecasting in Bangladesh, while the task of ADPC was to identify broader forecast
applicationopportunities and identifying ways to institutionalize CFAB in Bangladesh (ADPC and
PAOS, 2004).The project was to develop and evaluate three tier overlapping forecast system with
improved leadtime during monsoon season 2003 and 2004, which showed a success in
forecasting the discharges at Hardinge Bridge station of Ganges and Bahadurabad station of
Brahmaputra rivers of Bangladesh. Thethree tier forecast system is as follows:
1. Short-range forecast of rainfall and river discharge in probabilistic form provided each
daywith 6-10 days lead-time.
2. Medium range forecasts of average 5 day rainfall and river discharges , updated every
days ,with 20-30 day lead time and
3. Seasonal outlook starting at the beginning of the monsoon season and updated each
month, providing 1-6 months lead-time.
Requirements for further Improvements
Regional cooperation among neighboring countries to get access to all types of required data on
a continuous basis for the entire catchments.
• Automated data recording and collection system can improve data quality.
• A close monitoring and feed back from the users and updating using the feedback data.
• Rainfall estimation using weather radar in conjunction with satellites for measuring rainfall over
catchments.
• DEM with higher resolution to produce quality inundation maps. The map has to be updated
with new field data.

CONCLUSION
At present 3 days and 10 days forecast are being by using deterministic and probabilisticforecast
approaches respectively. The study shows that the forecast quality graduallydeteriorated where
forecast intervals moved further away from the time of forecast.Short range forecast is used to
evacuation and emergency planning where as medium and longrange forecast is used for
agricultural planning which is essential to build food security. As probabilistic model can play an
important role to increase the present short-term lead-time tomedium to long range lead-time,
so more focus should be given on its improvement. A vastarea of Bangladesh is vulnerable to
flash flood and coastal flood, so separate models can bedeveloped to address flash flood and
coastal flood respectively. Improvement of datacollection system as well as regional cooperation
is also necessary for increasing lead-time.

References
1. FFWC..Annual Flood Report.Dhaka: Bangladesh Water Development Board.
2. NWMP. National Water Resources Master Plan. Dhaka: Ministry of Water Resources,Peoples
Republic of Bangladesh.