DISTRIBUCIONES DE PROBABILIDAD

DISCRETAS.

DISTRIBUCIONES DE PROBABILIDAD
DISCRETAS, BINOMIAL, HIPERGEOMÉTRICA Y POISSON.

Ejercicios propuestos

Nombre del estudiante Jonathan Chillagan

Carrera Software

NRC 7454

Nombre del profesor Ing. Gustavo León

 Semana # 7.2

Ejercicio 1:

N=25
S=5
.n=4

a) 𝑃(𝑥 ≥ 1) = 1 − 𝑃(𝑥 = 0)

5𝐶0 (25−5𝐶4−0 )
𝑃(0) = =0.383
25𝐶4

𝑃(𝑥 ≥ 1) = 1 − 0.383 = 0.6169

b) 𝑃(𝑥 ≤ 2) = 𝑃(𝑥 = 0) + 𝑃(𝑥 = 1) + 𝑃(𝑥 = 2)

5𝐶1 (25−5𝐶4−1 )
𝑃(1) = =0.45.05
25𝐶4
5𝐶2 (25−5𝐶4−2 )
𝑃(2) = =0.1501
25𝐶4

𝑃(𝑥 ≤ 2) = 1 − (0.6169 + 0.45.05 + 0.1501)

5𝐶1 (25−5𝐶4−1 )
c) 𝑃(1) = =0.45.05
25𝐶4

Ejercicio 2.

1
 Semana # 7.2

N=10000; p=0.0001;x=5
𝜇𝑥 ∗𝑒 −𝜇 15 ∗𝑒 −1
𝑃(5) = = = 0.00306 = 0.306%
𝑥! 5!

𝜇 = 10000 ∗ 0.0001 = 1

Ejercicio 3

a)

N=15
S=6
.n=5
X=2
6𝐶2 (15 − 6𝐶5−2 ) 15 ∗ 84
𝑃(2) = = = 0.419 = 41.9%
15𝐶5 3003

b)

N=15
S=9
.n=5
X=2

9𝐶2 (15 − 9𝐶5−2 ) 36 ∗ 20

𝑃(2) = = = 0.239 = 23.9%
15𝐶5 3003

Ejercicio 4:

2
 Semana # 7.2

a)

P=0.30 ;n= 8;

𝑝(𝑥 ≤ 3) = 𝑝(3) + 𝑃(2) + 𝑝(1) + 𝑝(0)

8
𝑝(3) = ( ) (0.3)3 (0.7)5 = 0.2541
3
8
𝑝(2) = ( ) (0.3)2 (0.7)6 = 0.2964
2
8
𝑝(1) = ( ) (0.3)1 (0.7)7 = 0.1976
1
8
𝑝(0) = ( ) (0.3)0 (0.7)8 = 0.05764
0

𝑝(𝑥 ≤ 3) = 0.2541 + 0.2964 + 0.1976 + 0.05764 = 0.80574 = 80.57%

b)

P=0.70 ;n= 8;
𝑝(𝑥 ≥ 3) = 1 − (𝑝(0) + 𝑝(1) + 𝑝(2))

8
𝑝(0) = ( ) (0.7)0 (0.3)8 = 0.000065
0
8
𝑝(1) = ( ) (0.7)1 (0.3)7 = 0.00122
1
8
𝑝(2) = ( ) (0.7)2 (0.3)6 = 0.010001
2
𝑝(𝑥 ≥ 3) = 1 − (0.000065
+0.00122 + 0.010001) = 0.988

Ejercicio 5:

3
 Semana # 7.2

a)
N=2000; p=0.001;x=3

𝜇𝑥 ∗𝑒 −𝜇 23 ∗𝑒 −2
𝑝(3) = = = 0.18044 = 18.44%
𝑥! 3!

𝜇 = 2000 ∗ 0.001 = 2

b) 𝑝(𝑥 > 2) = 1 − (𝑝(0) + 𝑝(1) + 𝑝(2))

𝜇 𝑥 ∗ 𝑒 −𝜇 20 ∗ 𝑒 −2
𝑝(0) = = = 0.13533
𝑥! 0!
𝜇 𝑥 ∗ 𝑒 −𝜇 21 ∗ 𝑒 −2
𝑝(1) = = = 0.2706
𝑥! 1!

𝜇 𝑥 ∗ 𝑒 −𝜇 22 ∗ 𝑒 −2
𝑝(2) = = = 0.2706
𝑥! 2!

𝑝(𝑥 > 2) = 1 − (𝑝(0) + 𝑝(1) + 𝑝(2))

= 1 − (0.13533 + 0.2706 ∗ 2) = 0.323

Ejercicio 6:

P=2/5

a)
7
𝑝(5) = ( ) (0.4)5 (0.6)2 = 0.07741
5

4
 Semana # 7.2
b) 𝑝(𝑥 ≥ 2) = 1 − (𝑝(0) + 𝑝(1))

7
𝑝(0) = ( ) (0.4)0 (0.6)1 = 0.0279
0
7
𝑝(2) = ( ) (0.4)2 (0.6)5 = 0.1306
2

𝑝(𝑥 ≥ 2) = 0.8415
P=3/5 n=7

c) 𝑝(𝑥 ≥ 2) = 1 − (𝑝(0) + 𝑝(1))

7
𝑝(0) = ( ) (0.6)0 (0.4)1 = 0.016
0
7
𝑝(1) = ( ) (0.6)1 (0.4)6 = 0.01722
1

𝑝(𝑥 ≥ 2) = 1 − 0.016 − 0.01722 = 0.98118

Ejercicio 7:

BINOMIAL
A)

P=0.3 n=100; x=0

100
𝑝(0) = ( ) (0.03)0 (0.97)100 = 0.0475
0
b)
P=0.3 n=100; x=1

100
𝑝(1) = ( ) (0.03)1 (0.97)99 = 0.1470
1

5
 Semana # 7.2
c)
P=0.3 n=100; x=2

100
𝑝(2) = ( ) (0.03)2 (0.97)98 = 0.225
2

d)
P=0.3 n=100; x=3

100
𝑝(2) = ( ) (0.03)3 (0.97)97 = 0.2274
3
e)
P=0.3 n=100; x=4

100
𝑝(4) = ( ) (0.03)4 (0.97)96 = 0.1706
4
f) P=0.3 n=100; x=5

100
𝑝(5) = ( ) (0.03)5 (0.97)95 = 0.1013
5

Ejercicio 8:

Binomial
P=0.5 n=16; x=2
a)
P(≤2)=p(0)+p(1)+p(2)
16
𝑝(0) = ( ) (0.5)0 (0.5)16 = 0.000015
0
16
𝑝(1) = ( ) (0.5)1 (0.5)15 = 0.000244
1
16
𝑝(2) = ( ) (0.5)2 (0.5)14 = 0.00183
2

6
 Semana # 7.2

P(≤ 2) = 0.000015+0.000244+0.00183=0.0021

b)
P(≥ 2) = 1 − 𝑝(0) − 𝑝(1)

16
𝑝(0) = ( ) (0.5)0 (0.5)16 = 0.000015
0
16
𝑝(1) = ( ) (0.5)1 (0.5)15 = 0.000244
1

P(≥ 2) = 0.99

c)

P(≥ 2) = 0.99

Ejercicio 9

N= 12
S=4
n=3
x=0

4𝐶0 (12 − 4𝐶3−0 ) 1 ∗ 56

𝑃(0) = = = 0.02828 = 2.8282%
12𝐶3 1980

7
 Semana # 7.2

Ejercicio 10:

P=0.00003; n=20000; x=0

a)

𝜇 𝑥 ∗ 𝑒 −𝜇 60 ∗ 𝑒 −6
𝑝(0) = = = 0.0024
𝑥! 0!

𝜇 = 𝑛 ∗ 𝑝 = 200000 ∗ 0.00003 = 6
b)
𝜇 𝑥 ∗ 𝑒 −𝜇 62 ∗ 𝑒 −6
𝑝(2) = = = 0.0446
𝑥! 2!

c)

𝜇 𝑥 ∗ 𝑒 −𝜇 66 ∗ 𝑒 −6
𝑝(6) = = = 0.160
𝑥! 6!
D)
𝜇 𝑥 ∗ 𝑒 −𝜇 68 ∗ 𝑒 −6
𝑝(8) = = = 0.103
𝑥! 8!

8
 Semana # 7.2
e)
p(4≥x≤8)= p(4)+p(5)+p(6)+p(7)+p(8)
𝜇 𝑥 ∗ 𝑒 −𝜇 66 ∗ 𝑒 −6
𝑝(6) = = = 0.160
𝑥! 6!

𝜇 𝑥 ∗ 𝑒 −𝜇 68 ∗ 𝑒 −6
𝑝(8) = = = 0.103
𝑥! 8!

𝜇 𝑥 ∗ 𝑒 −𝜇 64 ∗ 𝑒 −6
𝑝(4) = = = 0.133
𝑥! 4!

𝜇 𝑥 ∗ 𝑒 −𝜇 65 ∗ 𝑒 −6
𝑝(5) = = = 0.1606
𝑥! 5!
𝜇 𝑥 ∗ 𝑒 −𝜇 67 ∗ 𝑒 −6
𝑝(7) = = = 0.137
𝑥! 7!

p(4≥x≤8)= 0.6936

f) p(<3)=p(0)+p(1)+p(2)

𝜇 𝑥 ∗ 𝑒 −𝜇 60 ∗ 𝑒 −6
𝑝(0) = = = 0.0024
𝑥! 0!

𝜇 𝑥 ∗ 𝑒 −𝜇 62 ∗ 𝑒 −6
𝑝(2) = = = 0.0446
𝑥! 2!

𝜇 𝑥 ∗ 𝑒 −𝜇 61 ∗ 𝑒 −6
𝑝(1) = = = 0.014
𝑥! 1!

p(<3)=0.0024+0.0446+0.014=0.061=6.1%

9
 Semana # 7.2

Ejercicio 11:

10
 Semana # 7.2
Ejercicio 12

11