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Indonesia's Future Potential For LNG Carriers & Fsru's
Indonesia's Future Potential For LNG Carriers & Fsru's
by Ari Rahim
PT. Khatulistiwa Mandala Energi
1. Introduction
6. Indonesia faced tremendous challenges, both Internal and External, for the
future development of its Gas and LNG Refining Industry
7. The Internal Challenges Include the additional proven Gas reserve for LNG
refining capacity, Domestic Receiving Facilities and capital availability.
• Natural gas will grow fast enough to overtake coal for the number-two
position behind oil. Demand for natural gas will rise by more than 60
percent through 2040. - For both oil and natural gas, an increasing share of
global supply will come from unconventional sources such as those produced
from shale formations.
• Demand for LNG for the next 5 years is expected to remain strong as
evidenced by several countries advancing plans to begin to import
LNG. - In Latin America, Southeast Asia and the Middle East, importers are
emerging quickly, as floating re-gasification terminals allow them to shorten the
time required to receive cargoes.
Meanwhile, estimated gas demand for end user and buyer is as follows :
1. PLN – PLTGU Muara Tawar 500 mmscfd
2. PLN – PLTGU Tanjung Priuk 500 mmscfd
3. PLN – PLTGU Muara Karang 300 mmscfd
4. PLN – PLTGU Marunda 300 mmscfd
5. Industrial Estate at West Java 500 mmscfd
6. Industrial Estate at Banten 500 mmscfd
7. New Gas Power Plant 800 MW (planned in near Jakarta) 150 mmscfd
Total Estimated Demand 2750 mmscfd
Base on the above data, gas shortage in this area is 1800 mmscfd, its mean
that Indonesia now need to import and its mean that any opportunities for
LNG Receiving And Re-gasification Terminal project, or FSRU (Floating
Storage and Re-gasification Unit).
Current situation in Indonesia
About Indonesian Electricity :
4. Government calculation suggest that the state power firm demand from the
state owned company PT. Perusahaan Listrik Negara (PT. PLN) for gas in
2010 runs to 2432 mmscfd with actual supply at only 1471 mmscfd. The
deficit will be even higher in 2011 and 2012, exceeding 1100 mmscfd.
5. PT. PLN Persero have been planning to expand the capacity by 10,000 MW
Phase I and 17,000 Phase II Program, as explain in his RUPTL/ Rencana
Usaha Penyediaan Tenaga Listrik (Power Supply Business Plan) 2011 –
2020.
Current situation in Indonesia
And What The Next ?
2. PT. PLN have urgent plan to build Gas Fired Power Plan 800 MW for
Jakarta area in 2015 – 2018. This plan still possible for IPP or by Public
Private Partnership scheme and starting immediately is more suitable.
4. In the year 2025 utilization of gas in Indonesian Energy Mix will be 30%
from 20% in year 2010, it mean that required terminal and re-gasification
facilities.
6. The combination between gas infrastructures and gas power plant will be a
great opportunity in Indonesia at the moment and the next decade.
(4) Electricity, Existing &
Development
Electricity Existing Installed Capacity in Indonesia
• In year 2011, existing installed capacity : 37.2 GW
(by PT.PLN: 29.2 GW and by IPP: 8 GW) and predicted Total new additional
generation capacity by 2020 about 55.34 GW
(by PLN: 31 MW & by IPP: 24 MW), average about 5.500 MW/year
• And in the next 2015 PT. PLN have plan to build gas fired power plant
for 800 MW near Jakarta to meet the urgent need for Jakarta City.
1. PLN Gas & Muara Karang Rep 210 MW 2011 On going JBIC
Steam Block 2
2. PLN Gas & Priok Extention Block 3 743 MW 2012 On going JBIC
Steam
3. PLN Gas & Muara Karang/ Priok 800 MW 2015 Plan Plan
Steam
TOTAL 1.753 MW
• Base on the above data, gas shortage in Jakarta about 1800 mmcfd,
its mean that Indonesia now need to import even the Government have
plan in this year to allocate LNG by 27 cargo (for Jakarta starting 2013
to 2025 from domestic allocation. (1 cargo = 125,000 metric ton LNG)
1. West Java FSRU Jakarta Bay, 400 mmscfd Operated May 2012
By PT. Nusantara Regas Jakarta Province
3. Central-East Java FSRU Semarang, Central 400 mmscfd Planned 2013 (FS)
By PT. Pertamina Java Province
Regasification Terminals will be required to receive the LNG, but three are already
planned, all of which are the floating variety and due to come on-stream by end 2011.
1. West Java FSRU will serving Jakarta and especially the 720 MW Muara Karang Power
Plant in the north of the Capital, will be a subject of a 60 : 40 JV between Pertamina and
PGN agree in April 2010. The West Java FSRU is expected eventually to reach 3 mmta.
2. PT. Pertamina will build re-gasification facility at Arun Aceh and whose customers will
include PLN’s Medan Plant, FSRU in Central Java 400 mmscfd (Semarang) and Cilacap
FSRU for 100 mmscfd ,(PT. Pertamina 100%)
3. State gas company Perusahaan Gas Negara (PT. PGN) will be responsible for a 1.5 – 2
mmtpa FSRU in Lampung (Sumatera), will operated July 2014
4. Another, in West Java, with 400 mmscfd capacity, by PT. Khatulistiwa Mandala Energi
(70%) and their strategic partners (30%)
Basic FSRU Project Structures
The objective of the Project are ; to build FSRU integrated with 800
MW Gas Power Plant in Jakarta area by produce 400 MMCFD gas
from imported LNG, supply to our 800 (4 X 200) MW Power Plant (will
consume about 150 mmscfd) and the balance about 250 mmscfd for
sale to the power plant, we will sell out to PLN (PT. Perusahaan
Listrik Negara), also for supply gas to Industrial Estate and
Household in Jakarta area through by PT. PGN (PT. Perusahaan Gas
Negara/ State Owned Gas Company)
Advantages of a FSRU:
First Phase:
Floating Storage and Re-gasification Unit (FSRU) with :
Second Phase
Gas Fired Power Plant (Combined Cycle Gas Turbine/CCGT)
by 2 x 400 MW
Initial Investment Cost : USD 1000 million (including opex)
The Opportunities & The Plan
First Phase :
Floating Storage and
Re-gasification Unit (FSRU) with :
Second Phase :
Gas Fired Power Plant
(Combined Cycle Gas Turbine/CCGT)
by 2 x 400 MW
Initial Investment Cost :
USD 1000 million (including opex)
The Opportunities & The Plan
1. Financing Agreement
2. Gas Supply Agreement
3. Offtaker or
Gas Sale Agreement
(GSA)
4. Purchase Power Agreement
(PPA)
5. EPC Agreement
6. Transporting Agreement
The Project Summary
The Economic parameter which used as calculation basis as follows :
1. Project Life Time : 25 Years
2. Construction Period : 24 Months
3. Capacity : First Year Is 50% On Design Cap.
4. IRR : 23%
5. NPV Discount Rate : 10 %
6. Escalation : The Price of LNG JCC formula.
7. Depreciation : 25 Yrs (Straight Line 5.0 % per Year).
8. Corporate Tax : 10 %
9. Capacity /Day : 400 MMCFD
10. Cost of FSRU : US $ 2 /MMBTU
11. Total Initial Investment Cost : US $ 1,500 MM *)
With description as follows :
CAPEX : US$ 1,350 MM
1. FSRU (400 mmscfd) : US$ 410 MM*)
2. Gas Powerplant (800 MW) : US$ 800 MM
3. Utility (10%xUSD 800MM) : US$ 80 MM
4. Subsea pipeline (5%xUSD 400 MM) : US$ 20 MM
5. Public Facility (5%xUSD 800 MM) : US$ 40 MM
Note :
1. The detail design and bill of quantity will provide by EPC Contractor
2. Assuming that Price of LNG is USD 13 - 16/mbtu
3. Assuming that Price of electricity is USD 10 – 15 cen/ kwh
The Project Summary
The Project Financing Models
• Alternative #1, 10% - 30% Private Equity Placement (PEP)
Private Equity Placement (PEP) for 10% - 30% from the total amount of the
investment (USD 1.5 Billion) and we will furnish it by debt loan from our others
financial institution sources such as Financial Institution such as Bank or
Investment Bank (70% - 90%)
The Private Equity Placement (PEP) Investor will take share 20% - 40% in our
SPV (Special Purpose Vehicle) and we will have 60% - 80%.
Ari Rahim
e : ari.rahim@yahoo.com
m: +62 8567 588 688
Info : http://project-group.org/Ari/Gasplant.zip