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Vulnerability Assessment and Risk Reduction of Water Supply Systems
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World Environmental and Water Resources Congress 2010: 4414
Challenges of Change. © 2010 ASCE
Vulnerability Assessment and Risk Reduction

of Water Supply Systems
Mohammad Karamouz F. ASCE1, Sara Saadati2, Azadeh Ahmadi3
1
Research Professor, Polytechnic Institute of NYU, Brooklyn, NY 11021 (at sabbatical from University of
Tehran, Tehran, Iran) mkaramou@poly.edu
2
M.Sc., Natural Resources Engineering, Isfahan University of Technology, Isfahan, Iran
3
Department of Civil Engineering, Isfahan University of Technology, Isfahan, Iran
Abstract
One of the concerns about future and existing dams is its safety and the possibility of
serious accidents including the dam failure, chemical and biological terrorism and natural
hazards. Vulnerability is a characteristic of a critical infrastructure’s design,
implementation, or operation that renders the basis susceptible to destruction or
incapacitation by a threat. Vulnerabilities may consist of flaws in security procedures,
software, internal system controls, or installation of infrastructure that may affect the
integrity, confidentiality, accountability, or availability of data or services. Vulnerability
assessments provide a systematic analysis of the utility’s susceptibility to an attack and
the means by which the utility can reduce its risk.
This paper reviews categories of vulnerability of the water supply system, and discusses
strategies for reducing them. Also, in order to assess the vulnerability, the actions/threats
that an adversary could take to keep a wastewater utility from are identified. Then the
specific assets (i.e., infrastructure, employees, information, or finances) that may be
impacted by the identified threats are identified. After evaluating existing
countermeasures, current risks associated with threats and assets are analyzed. Finally
additional countermeasures and prioritize based on a risk-reduction analysis are
recommended.
Keywords: Vulnerability Assessment, Risk Reduction, Water Supply Systems, Threats,

Hazards
Introduction
Water is a fundamental resource for human and economic welfare and modern society
depends on complex, interconnected water infrastructure to provide reliable safe water
supplies and to remove and treat wastewater.
A general water supply system is composed of water sources, raw water transmission
pipes, water treatment plants, and water distribution networks. However, these
components and subsystems give the greatest opportunities for both natural and human-
related influences because most of them are spatially diverse and accessible. With respect
to this, researchers have identified the potential vulnerable areas during the process of
Downloaded 12 Oct 2010 to 128.233.85.20. Redistribution subject to ASCE license or copyright. Visithttp://www.ascelibrary.org
delivering water from the sources to the customers as (see Figure 1): (1) water sources
(e.g., river, reservoir, and wells); (2) water treatment plant that removes impurities and
harmful agents and makes water suitable for domestic consumption and other uses; (3)
water distribution pipelines that deliver clean water on demand to homes, commercial
establishments, and industries; (4) storages (tanks); and (5) other facilities (Haestad et al.,
2003)
Figure 1. Elements and vulnerable points in a general water supply system

(Source: Haestad et al., 2003)
Water supply systems are a combination of natural, technological and socioeconomic

elements, which are coordinated adequate service to water users. Water supply systems
are designed to get water from aquifers and rivers, store it and distribute if to users under
a set of acceptable conditions regarding water quality and quantity. Reliability and
vulnerability of water supply systems to water shortages are required parameters to
design and operate the systems. Usually, these factors are evaluated with the help of
water resources simulation and optimization models, which provide a framework to
extract additional information that can be very useful for decision makers. Risk is
understood as the probability of certain threats arising that cause damage or impact one or
more social agents. Risk is a circumstance that Corresponds to each system under certain
conditions. A general water supply system is composed of water sources, raw water
transmission pipes, water treatment plants, and water distribution networks. However,
these components and subsystems give the greatest opportunities for both natural and
human-related influences because most of them are spatially diverse and accessible.
Buckel (2000) contends that work must be done to clear up the definition of vulnerability
with respect to risk. For example, Emergency Management Australia (1998) defines
vulnerability as the degree of susceptibility and resilience of the community and
environment to hazards. Blaike et al (1994) defines vulnerability as “the characteristics of
a person or group in terms of their capacity to anticipate, cope with, resist, and recover
from the impact of a natural hazard”. Vulnerability highlights the notion of susceptibility to
a scenario whereas risk focuses on the severity of consequences to a scenario(Ezel, 2004).
vulnerability is defined as a property associated with a component, a subsystem, or the
overall water supply system to represent the possibility of being influenced by
hazards/threats with given likelihoods and severities (Huipeng, 2007)
2- Hazard and threat
In water supply systems, threats/hazards do not necessarily have to be rare or extreme

type events. Risk can be high even if hazard is moderate due to high vulnerabilities of
components or the system. Therefore, the current study considers threats or hazards as
hazardous events that can adversely affect the performance of a water supply system,
which includes both natural hazards and human-related threats. Natural hazards and
human related threats to a water supply system summarized in Table 1 and Figure 2.
Table 1: Natural hazards and human related threats to a water supply system
Threats and hazards Consequences
Natural hazards
Earthquake Pipe breaks
Loss of power
Structure collapse
Flooding Loss of treatment plant
Contamination of distribution system
Drought Water shortages
Water quality problem
Wind Flood-induced problems
Structure damage
Loss of power
Water born diseases Sickness
Death
Loss of public confidence
Severe weather Frozen pipes
Outages and leaks
High water use
Human-related Physical disruption of SCADA (supervisory control and data
threats acquisition) network
Attacks on central control system to create simultaneous failures
Cyber threats Electronic attacks using worms and viruses
Network flooding
Jamming
Disguising data to neutralize chlorine or add no disinfectant, allowing
addition of microbes
Physical threats Physical destruction of system’s assets or disruption of water supply is
more likely than contamination
Loss of water pressure compromising firefighting capabilities and could
lead to possible bacterial build-up in the system
Potential for creating a water hammer effect by opening and closing
major control valves and turning pumps on and off too quickly, which
could result in simultaneous main breaks.
Chemical/Biological Heath problems, or death of customers

threats Panic
Loss of public confidence
(Source: Grigg, 2003)
Natural hazards may include earthquakes, floods, hurricanes, landslides, radiological

spills, tornadoes, and other windstorms. Many of the problems presented by natural
hazards occur because these phenomena are not considered during the conception,
design, construction, and operation of the system. The vulnerability analysis described in
this document is important for both existing and planned constructions. Evaluation of
hazards in the zone or region under study is essential for estimating the vulnerability and
possible damage to components. The history of disasters in the region is valuable for such
an evaluation.
Among the natural hazards, earthquakes, floods, and droughts are three most significant
hazards that can cause water utilities damage and great losses (Grigg, 2003). For
example, the Kobe’s earthquake of 1995 in Japan had caused over 5,000 deaths and $100
billion in damage with main breaks and damage to pumps and treatment plants. The flood
of the 1993 Midwestern had caused more than $15 billion in damage and contaminated
water at 250 drinking water treatment plants (Chung., 1996). In so insurance against
floods, droughts and earthquakes is an important socioeconomic instrument that protects
our communities from major social dislocation.
Figure 2: Hazards and threats to a water supply system
3- Methods and Materials

Systems that are highly exposed, sensitive and less adaptable, are highly vulnerable. The
proposed algorithm for developing the strategies to system vulnerability reduction is
shown in Figure 2. In order to develop adaptation strategies, at first the systems/elements
that are vulnerable to change should be identified. The components of water sources
systems should be identification and their vulnerability for natural hazards and threats
should be determined. Developing guidelines and checklist to evaluate the system
performance in disaster management is very useful. The system readiness could be a
function of system performance indices including reliability, vulnerability and resiliency.
Vulnerabilities may consist of flaws in security procedures, software, internal system
controls, or installation of infrastructure that may affect the integrity, confidentiality,
accountability, or availability of data or services. Vulnerability assessments provide a
systematic analysis of the utility’s susceptibility to an attack and the means by which the
utility can reduce its risk.
3-1-Vulnerability assessment to threats or hazards

To give a risk analysis of municipal water distribution system, (Ezell et al .2000)
proposed a method based on evaluation of component vulnerabilities which are assessed
in terms of exposure and access control. Vulnerability of a water system is defined as
n
V = ∑i=1
vi (1)
Where vi denotes the vulnerability of a component in the water system, which is

determined by
vi = α iγ i (2)
Where α i is accessibility and subjectively scaled in [0, 1]; γ i is the degree of exposure
and subjectively scaled in [0, 1]. A low vulnerability score for a component is an
advantage. In this method, vulnerabilities for specific components are subjective (0 to 1)
and constructed from an attribute scale.
Then vulnerability of the subsystem or the overall system is calculated by Equation (1).
With the values of vulnerabilities, a rank order is obtained for a water supply system.
In this method only access and exposure are identified as the contributing factors to
vulnerability, which makes it more suitable to analyze the vulnerability related to external
hazards. However, for internal factors like deterioration of pipes due to changes of
surrounding conditions, access and exposure might not be the proper indicators to value
vulnerability. (Li et al, 2004)
Vulnerability analysis meets five basic objectives:
• Identification and quantification of hazards that can affect the system, whether they
are natural or derive from human activity;
• Estimation of the susceptibility to damage of components that are considered
essential to providing water in case of disaster;
• Definition of measures to be included in the mitigation plan, such as: retrofitting
projects, improvement of watersheds, and evaluation of foundations and structures.
Identification components of
Distribution Treatment Supply

system system system
Identification and analysis of

disasters and threats
Structural
Natural
Non-structural Identification of Identification of

disaster threats
Man-made
Quality
Service
Determination of system
Structural
vulnerability
Operation
Guidelines and checklist
preparation
Vulnerability and risk assessment
Assessment and monitoring of system

performance
Vulnerability Resiliency Reliability
Assessment of system readiness
Strategies for system vulnerability

reduction
Figure 3: Proposed algorithm to develop strategies for a water supply system
• These measures aim to decrease the physical vulnerability of a system’s

components;
• Identification of measures and procedures for developing an emergency plan. This
will assist the water service company to supplement services in emergency
situations;
• Evaluation of the effectiveness of the mitigation and emergency plans, and
implementation of training activities, such as simulations, seminars, and workshops.
3-2-Vulnerability Assessment of Water Supply Systems

The vulnerability assessment provides a framework for developing risk reduction options
and associated costs. Water systems should review their vulnerability assessments
periodically to account for changing threats or additions to the system to ensure that
security objectives are being met. Calculating risk in this manner not only allows for a
comparison of different threats based upon their risk score, but also provides a basis for
evaluating countermeasures that would be considered for reducing risk. Risk reduction
can be achieved by lowering either the probability of the event happening or the
criticality of the event, or both. By estimating the reduction in the risk score with each
countermeasure considered, and knowing the cost of implementing each countermeasure,
a Cost - risk reduction analysis can be performed.
The common elements of vulnerability assessment in water supply systems are viewed as
follows:
Characterization of the water system, including its mission and objectives,

Identification and prioritization of adverse consequences to avoid,
Determination of critical assets that might be subject to malevolent acts that could
Result in undesired consequences,
Assessment of likelihood of such malevolent acts from adversaries,
Evaluation of existing counter measures, and
Analysis of current risk and development of a prioritized plan for risk reduction.
The complexity of vulnerability assessment ranges on the basis of the design and
operation of the water systems. With respect to this, several methods have been
developed to perform vulnerability assessment (Mays, 2004)
3-3- Risk Assessment in Water Supply Systems

Risk indicates the potential damage or loss of an asset or a compromise in the function of
an engineering system. Risk assessment of a water supply system is usually expressed as
a process (Figure 4) of identifying threats/hazards, analyzing vulnerabilities of
components and system, and evaluating risks of components and system ((Huipeng,
2007)). A risk assessment would be considered effective and comprehensive if this
process was conducted completely.
3-4- The Relationship between Risk and Vulnerability
Vulnerability is defined as a property associated with a component, a subsystem, or the
overall water supply system to represent the possibility of being influenced by
hazards/threats with given likelihoods and severities. Risk measure thus represents the
Figure 4: General procedure of risk assessment in a water supply system

(Source: Huipeng, 2007)
cumulative effects of frequency and severity of a hazard/threat. Normally, this risk

measure is represented as
Risk=Likelihood × Severity (3)
It is obvious that the above definition of risk only considers the influences of threats or
hazards. Vulnerabilities of assets are also playing important roles in introducing risks
into the water supply system. Therefore, a modified definition of risk is formed as
Risk= (Likelihood × Severity) × Vulnerability (4)
where likelihood and severity represent the characteristics of a hazard or threat; while
vulnerability represents the property of an asset that is influenced by the hazard or threat.
In this definition, both hazards/threats and assets are explicitly considered. To give a risk
analysis of municipal water distribution system, ( Ezell et al, 2000) proposed a method
based on evaluation of component vulnerabilities which are assessed in terms of
exposure and access control. Risk assessment methodologies are often employed to help
understand what can go wrong, estimate the likelihood and the consequences, and to
develop risk mitigation strategies to counter risk.
When undertaking risk reduction measures it is also necessary to define the location of a
potential hazard, its severity, return period and the probability of expected levels of loss.
It is necessary to differentiate between much localized events and national, regional and
global impacts.
4- Case study
A water supply reservoir that serves a major city is selected. It supplies 200 cubic meters
per year. A schematic of the water supply system is presented in Figure 5. The reservoir
is a part of a water system supply that the vulnerability of its components is assessed
based on different criteria using questionnaires from experts. The criteria are considered
as the distribution, spread (the extend of a physical magnitude), visibility, exposure and
recovery. In four levels of qualitative assessment, the components are marked as low,
medium, high and very high. The linguistic marks are presented in Table 2. The
economic and human losses are considered as the results and shown in Figure 6. The
results show the losses from the dam are considerable and action plans are needed for
dam vulnerability reduction. The risk reduction strategies for the reservoir include the
increasing resistance of its structure, improving the warning systems and limiting of
accessible roads to the dam.
Figure 5. A schematic of water transfer from the dam to the city

Table 2. Vulnerability assessment of the water supply system components based on
different criteria
Result
Components Distribution Spread Visibility Exposure Recovery Human Economic
losses losses
Very Very
Surface water The river High High Medium Low Medium
high high
resource
Groundwater Medium Low Low Medium Medium Low Low
Raw water dam Low High High Medium Low High Very high
reservoirs Reservoirs Low Medium High High Medium Low Low
Transfer channel intake Very high High Low Medium High Low Medium
Pumping station Low Medium Medium High Medium Low Medium
Treatment plants Low Low High Medium Medium High High
Storage Reservoirs Medium Low Medium High Low Low Low
Distribution network Very high High Medium High Medium High Medium
Figure 6 . Probable losses for faluier of water system components
Figure 7 shows the vulnerability capability based on different criteria for each water
supply system components. In order to generate the figures the numbers 1,2,3 and 4 are
assigned as low, medium, high and very high as a degree of each criteria. High
vulnerability is due to the extent of influence zone (Colored area). Figure 7 shows the
dam and distribution network has high vulnerability capability and groundwater resources
have low vulnerability capability. Therefore, groundwater is an alternative for water
supply while system failure. Also the development of the online monitoring and warning
system along the river and the distribution network are recommitted to reduce their risk.
Monitoring systems enable continuous monitoring of water quality and quantity in order
to control process and emissions just-on-time. Water quality monitoring helps link
sources of pollution to a stream quality problem because it identifies specific problem
pollutants. Since certain activities tend to generate certain pollutants (e.g., bacteria and
nutrients are more likely to come from an animal feedlot than an automotive repair shop),
a tentative link might be made that would warrant further investigation or monitoring.
After measuring desired parameters the information will be transferred where it is needed
e.g. internet, automation system or the use of personnel. It’s also possible to get alarms
by SMS when some alarm limit exceeds.
Early warning strategy is very important in vulnerability reduction. The objective is
towards preventive concepts from responsive strategy which leads to maximize the
operational response to an emergency by activating warning systems and using
communication systems to minimize the loss of life, damage to housing and
infrastructure.
10
Distribution
4
3
2
Recovery 1 Area
0
Identification
Expose
capability
Distribution
4
3
2
Recovery 1 Area
0
Identification
Expose
capability
Figure 7. Vulnerability of water system components based on different criteria
11
5- Summary and Conclusion

This paper reviews categories of vulnerability of the water supply system for natural
hazard and threats. The institutional and legal framework necessary for vulnerability
reduction comprises several aspects. The cornerstone is a participatory system in which
all sectors (government, private sector, civil society, etc.) take measures to prevent and
mitigate vulnerability to natural disasters, and to respond when the event occurs. The
required framework is two-dimensional. On one side, it must recognize different roles for
the different sectors. The second dimension relates to different spheres of action at the
time a disaster develops. The institutional framework has the following three basic
objectives relating to vulnerability reduction:
1- Timely identification of potential hazards and threats. The objective is to maximize
the ability to predict threats. This entails the strengthening and coordination of
public and private institutions dealing with information management, telemetry and
other forecasting tools.
2- Timely response to emergencies. The objective is to maximize the operational
response to an emergency by activating warning systems and using communication
systems to minimize the loss of life, damage to housing and infrastructure, etc.
3- Rehabilitation and reconstruction management. The objective is to make the most of
all efforts oriented towards reconstruction and rehabilitation.
The first step in mitigating hazards and threats– vulnerability reduction – is to recognize
the importance of "preventive concepts" rather than "responsive strategy". In other
words, addressing hazards and vulnerability "before" rather than "after" events occur.
The vulnerability/reduction concept is proactive as it can reduce the probability of loss
before it becomes a real threat or a real tragedy, and will minimize the magnitude of
damages.
REFERENCES
Blaikie, P., Cannon, T., Davis, I., and Wisner, B., (1994). At Risk: Natural Hazards,
People’s Vulnerability, and Disasters, Routledge, London, UK.
Buckle, P. (2000). “Assessing Resilience and Vulnerability in the Context of
Emergencies: Guidelines, Victorian Government Publishing Service”. Retrieved
October 20, 2002 from www.anglia.ac.uk/geography/radix/ resources/buckle-
guidelines.pdf.
Chung, R. (1996) The January 17, 1995 Hydrogoken-Nanbu., (Kobe) “ Earthquake:
Performance of Structures, Lifelines, and Fire Protection Systems”, National Institute
of Standards and Technology.
Coburn, A.W., Spence, R.J.S., Pomois, A., (1994) “Vulnerability and Risk Assessment”,
Second Edition, UNDP Disaster management training programme.
Ezell, B.C., J.V. Farr., and I. Wiese., (2000) “Infrastructure Risk Analysis Model.”
Journal of Infrastructure Systems, ASCE, Vol.6, No.3, pp.114-122.
Ezell, B.C., (2004). Quantifying Vulnerability to Critical Infrastructure Systems, P.H.D
Disseration, Department of Engineering Management, Old Dominion University,
Norfolk, Va.
Ghazizadeh, A., Jalili ghazizadeh, M.R., and A.A, Ghane ., (2008) “Assessment of water
transfer system components aspect of passive defense”, 2nd National congress of
water and wastewater , Tehran, 6-7 November. (In Persian)
12
Grigg, N. S., (2003) “Water Security: Multiple Hazards and Multiple Barriers”, Journal
of Infrastructure Systems ASCE, Vol. 9, No. 2, pp. 87.
Haimes, Y. Y., (2009). “Risk Modeling, Assessment, and Management”, Wiley, Third
Edition, New York, USA.
Haimes, Y. Y., Matalas, N. C., Jackson, B. A .,James, F. R., (1998) “ Reducing
Vulnerability of Water Supply Systems to Attack”, Journal of Infrastructure System
ASCE, Vol. 4, No. 4, pp. 164-177.
Haestad, M., Walski, T. M., Chase, D. V., Savic, D. A., Grayman, W., Backwith, S.,
Koelle, E., (2003) “Advanced Water Distribution Modeling and Management”, Haestad
Press, Waterbury, CT USA.
Huipeng, L., (2007). “Hierarchical Risk Assessment of Water Supply Systems.”, Ph
.D. Disseration, Loughborough University, Leicestershire, Uk.
Li, H. and Vairavamoorthy, K.., (2004). “An Object-Oriented Framework for
Vulnerability and Risk Assessment of Water Supply Systems”, Proceedings of
Decision Support in the Water Industry under Conditions of Uncertainty, EPSRC
Research Network Seminar ACTUI2004, University of Exeter, UK, pp. 111-117.
Mays, L.W., (2004). “ Water Supply Systems Security, McGraw-Hill Professional
Engineering, New York”.
13
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Vulnerability Assessment and Risk Reduction of Water Supply Systems

Article · May 2010

Water Management View project

The user has requested enhancement of the downloaded file.

Vulnerability Assessment and Risk Reduction

Keywords: Vulnerability Assessment, Risk Reduction, Water Supply Systems, Threats,

Figure 1. Elements and vulnerable points in a general water supply system

Water supply systems are a combination of natural, technological and socioeconomic

2- Hazard and threat

In water supply systems, threats/hazards do not necessarily have to be rare or extreme

Chemical/Biological Heath problems, or death of customers

(Source: Grigg, 2003)

Natural hazards may include earthquakes, floods, hurricanes, landslides, radiological

Figure 2: Hazards and threats to a water supply system

3- Methods and Materials

3-1-Vulnerability assessment to threats or hazards

Where vi denotes the vulnerability of a component in the water system, which is

Distribution Treatment Supply

Identification and analysis of

Non-structural Identification of Identification of

Vulnerability and risk assessment

Assessment and monitoring of system

Vulnerability Resiliency Reliability

Assessment of system readiness

Strategies for system vulnerability

Figure 3: Proposed algorithm to develop strategies for a water supply system

• These measures aim to decrease the physical vulnerability of a system’s

3-2-Vulnerability Assessment of Water Supply Systems

 Characterization of the water system, including its mission and objectives,

3-3- Risk Assessment in Water Supply Systems

Figure 4: General procedure of risk assessment in a water supply system

cumulative effects of frequency and severity of a hazard/threat. Normally, this risk

Risk=Likelihood × Severity (3)

Figure 5. A schematic of water transfer from the dam to the city

Figure 6 . Probable losses for faluier of water system components

Figure 7. Vulnerability of water system components based on different criteria

5- Summary and Conclusion

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Characterization of the water system, including its mission and objectives,