Risk Mapping Philippines

Sector Disaster Risk Reduction & Emergency Aid

January 2012
Evelien Thieme Groen & Carolien Jacobs
Table of Contents

Fast Facts 3

HAZARDS 3
Natural Hazards 3
Cyclones 3
Floods and landslides 3
Volcanoes and earthquakes 4
Drought 4
Conflicts 4
Mindanao 4
Abu Sayyaf 4
NPA 4
Health risks 5

VULNERABILITY 5
Indicators 5

CAPACITY 5
Government 5
Civil society 6
Local Cordaid partners 6
International coordination 7

SYNTHESIS 7

Resources & contacts 8

Appendix: hazard map Philippines

2
Republic of the Philippines

Fast Facts1
Capital: Manila (largest city: Quezon City) Official languages: Filipino, English. Regional
Population: 94.8 mln languages recognised
Population Density: 316 people/sq.km Climate: mostly tropical. Monsoon: May-Oct
Administrative regions: 3 island groups (Luzon, Pop. Affected by natural disasters
Visayas, Mindanao), 17 regions, 80 provinces, (average/year/mln people): 48 370
138 cities, 1496 municipalities, 42025 barangays World Risk Index: 3 (173)
Major ethnic groups: Tagalog, Cebuano, Ilocano Cordaid sectors: CT, DRR, H&W,
Major religion: Christianity Entrepreneurship

Hazards

Natural Hazards
The Philippines are located along the Pacific “Ring of Fire” and the typhoon belt. Natural hazards are
therefore numerous.2 Since it is very densely populated, disasters often affect large numbers of people.

Cyclones
Tropical storms are recurrent in the Philippines, with the storm season stretching from June to November and
with a peak in August. Northern and Eastern Luzon and the Bicol and Eastern Visayas regions are most at risk.3
Manila gets regularly hit as well. Due to the high population density, impact of storms hitting Manila is often
wider. About 18% of the population is directly exposed to cyclones, that is about 16 million people.4 In
December 2011 - relatively late in the storm season - a cyclone hit Mindanao, which is a region that is usually
less frequently affected by tropical storms. As a result, preparedness was relatively weak. The City of
Cagayan de Oro was severely affected but also the surrounding rural areas suffered from the subsequent
flooding.5

Floods and landslides

The occurrence of floods in the Philippines is strongly related to cyclones. It has been shown that at least 30%
of the annual rainfall in the north of the country was related to tropical cyclones, whereas in the southern
islands less than 10% of annual rainfall was related to tropical cyclones.6 Floods and landslides occur
nationwide, usually induced by rains. Cyclone prone areas are also most prone to flooding, but tend to be
better prepared, resulting in less impact.7 Deforestation further aggravates the impact of tropical storms and
flooding. The Philippines is among the countries with highest deforestation rates, due to agricultural
expansion, illegal logging and activities of large-scale logging companies.8 The province of Cebu is the most
deforested in the Philippines.9 As a result of La Niña weather conditions in the Philippines tend to be wetter.10

1
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Philippines, viewed on 8.12.2011.
2
http://www.who.int/countryfocus/cooperation_strategy/ccsbrief_phl_en.pdf, viewed on 19.12.2011.
3
WFP Emergency Preparedness and Response Branch, 2011. Seasonal and hazards calendar, p. 17.
4
PreventionWeb (2011). Risk Profile. http://www.preventionweb.net/english/countries/statistics/risk.php?cid=135 viewed on 17.01.2011.
5
BBC News, 20.12.2011, ‘Philippine floods: President declares national calamity’, http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-16260205, viewed on 20.12.2011.
6
Rodgers, E.B., R.F. Adler, and H.F. Pierce. 2000. ‘Contribution of tropical cyclones to the North Pacific climatological rainfall as observed from satellites’,
Journal of Applied Meteorology, 39: 1658-1678.
7
http://glidenumber.net/glide/public/search/search.jsp, viewed on 21.12.2011.
8
http://www1.american.edu/TED/philwood.htm, viewed on 21.12.2011.
9
Bensel, T. 2008. ‘Fuelwood, deforestation, and land degradation: 10 years of evidence from Cebu province, the Philippines’, Land degradation &
development 19: 587-605.

3
Volcanoes and earthquakes
Located on the Pacific ‘Ring of Fire’, the Philippines are home to a number of active volcanoes. Major
volcanoes are Mount Pinatubo (eruption in 1991), Mount Mayon (2009 last explosions) and the Taal volcano, all
located on the island of Luzon, and Mount Bulusan (explosions in 2010) in the Bicol Region.11 Most parts of the
Philippines are prone to earthquakes. About 14% of the population is directly exposed to earthquakes, which is
over 12 million people.12 A recent major earthquake occurred in 2002 near the Cotabato Trench, Mindanao
and was followed by a tsunami. 15 people died and up to 800 buildings were damaged.13 Would a major
earthquake struck the densely populated metropolitan area of Manila, damage would be much higher.

Drought
Drought spells in the Philippines are not very frequent but do occur incidentally. A dry spell in 1997 affected
68% of the country and was especially bad in Mindanao. El Niño tends to cause dry conditions.14

Conflicts

Mindanao
A protracted conflict between the state and rebels fighting for a separate Islamic state is causing a state of
insecurity on the island of Mindanao. The conflict arguably took already more than 120 thousand lives.15 Peace
talks are going on for a long time but are complicated by the fact that the state has to negotiate with two
different rebel groups: the Moro National Liberation Front (MNLF) and the larger and better equipped Moro
Islamic Liberation Front (MILF).16 Parts of the Mindanao island group already have a special status as
Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (ARMM) with its own government. The provinces of Basilan (except
Isabela City), Lanao del Sur, Maguindanao, Sulu and Tawi-Tawi are part of the region.17 The Mindanao conflict
is the main ground for internal displacement in the Philippines, mostly in Maguindanao province.18

Abu Sayyaf
The Abu Sayyaf is a small, yet strong insurgency group of radical Islamist and reputedly linked to Al-Qaeda and
the Indonesian Jemaah Islamiyah. The groups’ methods of fighting are extremely violent and include
bombings, kidnappings and killing. They are based in Bangsamoro (Jolo and Basilan).19

NPA
The New People’s Army (NPA) is the armed wing of the Communist Party of the Philippines. They have strong
roots and operate throughout the country, making use of guerrilla tactics. The government and the
international community have often prioritised resolving the Mindanao conflict, whereas the CPP-NPA conflict

10
Partners for Resilience, n.d. ‘Context analysis report the Philippines’.
11
http://www.philippines.hvu.nl/volcanoes1.htm, and http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Erupting_volcanoes_in_the_Philippines, viewed on 21.12.2011.
12
PreventionWeb (2011). Risk Profile. http://www.preventionweb.net/english/countries/statistics/risk.php?cid=135 viewed on 17.01.2011.
13
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2002_Mindanao_earthquake, viewed on 22.12.2011.
14
Partners for Resilience, n.d. ‘Context analysis report the Philippines.
15
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-15521300, viewed on 20.12.2011.
16
http://www.crisisgroup.org/en/regions/asia/south-east-asia/philippines/B125-the-philippines-a-new-strategy-for-peace-in-mindanao.aspx, viewed on
21.12.2011.
17
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Autonomous_Region_in_Muslim_Mindanao, viewed on 22.12.2011.
18
IDMC, 2011. ‘Durable solutions still out of sight for many IDPs and returnees in Mindanao’, http://www.internal-
displacement.org/8025708F004BE3B1/(httpInfoFiles)/39C710BE34D2A920C12578AB004DDE74/$file/Philippines+-+June+2011.pdf, viewed on 22.12.2011.
19
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abu_Sayyaf, and http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-15521300, viewed on 22.12.2011.

4
is just as well taking hundreds of live every year. However, February 2011 peace talks resulted in an
agreement to work towards a peace deal by 2012.20
Health risks
Vectorborne diseases such as malaria, dengue and filariasis are endemic in large parts of the country and
constitute a continuous risk. In 2010, 17 thousand cases of malaria were reported and 19 deaths. Dengue
outbreaks occur every three to five years. In 2010 over 135 thousand cases and 793 deaths were reported,
with 1-20 year-olds most affected (78% of cases). Parasitic worms and schistosomiasis are other threats which
are prevalent in large parts of the country. During and after flood events, prevalence of waterborne diseases
such as cholera and diarrhoea is widespread.21 Annually, about 17 thousand people die due to diarrhoeal
diseases.

Vulnerability

Indicators22
Human Development Index (out of 187) 112 Adult literacy rate (% aged >15) 95.4
GDP per capita (USD) 3216 Mean years of schooling (of adults) 8.9
Living below 1,25 (USD) a day (% pop) 22.6 Gender inequality index 0.427
Life expectancy at birth (years) 68.7 Global hunger index (>20 alarming) 11.5
Infant mortality rate (per 1000 live births) 33 Corruption perceptions index (10 = clean) 2.6
Gini coefficient 44.0

The context analysis of Partners for Resilience distinguished between vulnerable people in rural and urban
areas. In rural areas, indigenous people are most at risk, as well as fishermen and small-scale farmers who
depend on the ecosystem and natural resources for their livelihoods. Cordillera Administrative Region (CAR)
(northern Luzon) and CARAGA region (east Mindanao) are regions with large groups of vulnerable people. In
the urban areas, slum inhabitants and people living along river banks and flood ways are most vulnerable. The
National Capital Region (NCR) is such a region with many vulnerable urban citizens.23 Cyclones are most
common in Luzon. Adding to the vulnerability of people in Mindanao is the conflict context.

Capacity

Government
The National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (NDRRMC) is the governmental body charged
with policy-making, coordination and supervision of disaster management in the Philippines.24 The Office of
Civil Defence is its operating arm. Disaster Coordination Councils (DCCs) are set up also at the local level, but
it is said that they operate mainly reactively. Measures of disaster preparedness, prevention and mitigation
are only limitedly channelled through to the local level, despite awareness on the government level.25 In the
aftermath of cyclone Washi (Sendong), the meteorological institute was heavily criticised for not having

20
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-15521300, and http://www.crisisgroup.org/en/regions/asia/south-east-asia/philippines/202-the-communist-
insurgency-in-the-philippines-tactics-and-talks.aspx, viewed on 20.12.2011.
21
WHO, 2011. ‘Philippines country profile’, http://www.wpro.who.int/NR/rdonlyres/6E2E7627-9528-417B-97B6-
340E21F37C62/0/26PHLpro2011_finaldraft.pdf, viewed on 22.12.2011.
22
UNDP, 2011. Philippines Country Profile: Human Development Indicators, http://hdrstats.undp.org/en/countries/profiles/PHL.html, viewed on 8.12.2011
and http://www.ifpri.org/sites/default/files/publications/ghi11.pdf and http://cpi.transparency.org/cpi2011/results/#CountryResults, viewed on
20.12.2011.
23
Partners for Resilience, n.d. ‘Context analysis report the Philippines’, p.2. For an overview of indigenous people in the Philippines, see
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indigenous_peoples_of_the_Philippines, viewed on 22.12.2011.
24
http://www.preventionweb.net/english/hyogo/national/list/v.php?id=135, viewed on 22.12.2011.
25
Partners for Resilience, n.d. ‘Context analysis report the Philippines’.

5
provided adequate warnings in advance. As Mindanao is not as often hit by cyclones (in comparison to the
north) disaster preparedness is weak.26 Disaster preparedness and response is said to be highly dependent on
the interests of local officials.27

Civil society
In the Partners for Resilience context analysis, civil society in the Philippines was positively assessed and
having greatly progressed over the last two decades. CSOs have a strong presence at the local level. The
country’s National Action Plan for DRR was enabled by participation of CSOs.28

Local Cordaid partners

Sector: entrepreneurship
Name and kind of org. Geo location Core business Strategy turnover staff
MCPI Network organisation
PEF Wholesaler
CSDO-SC Wholesaler
MASS-SPECC Wholesaler
SEDPI en SEDPI Capital Wholesaler
CARD Large MFI
ASHI Small MFI
KPS-SEED Small MFI
Many partners are already working on DRR through Sector Entrepreneurship donations. There is a lot of
interest amongst the MFIs to work on DRR because all kinds of disasters, especially typhoons, affect their
entrepreneurs.
Name and kind of org. Geo location Core business Strategy turnover staff
NASSA ( Caritas National Relief & service Emergency <100,000 <10
Phillipines) delivery response with
Appeal (
Caritas system)
Limited
capacity.

CRS fillipijnen National ( HQ Emergency response, Emregency >500,000 >50

Manilla) peace building , response,
Kantoor Davao health agriculture/ service
( zuid; natural resource delivery
mindanao) management

IIRR NVT Training ( DRR etc) Consultancy & <100,000 <10

training
DRR &
emergency
preparedness
PEF (ondernemen) Micro -credit
Gauke andriesse
vragen
Peace building, relief

26
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-16260205
27
Partners for Resilience, n.d. ‘Context analysis report the Philippines’.
28
Ibid.

6
ADF (assisi & rehabilitation
development
foundation) - CT
Jan Nielen
Pascali (health – Hilde
M.)

International coordination
The cluster approach towards humanitarian assistance was introduced in the Philippines in 2006. The
following structure was agreed upon:29

Cluster Agency Government lead

Agriculture FAO Dept. of Agriculture
Camp Coordination/Camp Office of Civil Defence- Prov. Disaster
IOM
management coordinating council (OCD-PDCC)
Early Recovery UNDP Office of Civil Defence
Education UNICEF
Shelter UN-Habitat Dept. of Social Welfare and Development (DSWD)
Emergency Telecommunications UNICEF
Food WFP Dept. of Social Welfare and Development (DSWD)
Health WHO Dept. of Health
Livelihood ILO Dept. of Social Welfare and Development (DSWD)
Logistics WFP Office of Civil Defence
Nutrition UNICEF Dept. of Health
(Child) protection UNICEF
Water UNICEF Dept. of Health
Protection UNHCR Dept. of Social Welfare and Development (DSWD)
Gender-based violence UNFPA

Synthesis

The Philippines are highly prone to multiple hazards. Climate change will increase frequency and intensity of
natural disasters. The level of disaster preparedness varies between regions. The following points illustrate
the main risks in this country based on hazards, vulnerability (as population exposed) and history.
- Floods are a serious threat; they are usually induced by heavy rainfall and often combined with landslides.
Floods occur often and affect from 40 thousand up to 800 thousand people or more.
- About 16 million people are directly exposed to cyclones. A severe cyclone can affect from several
hundred families to up 5 million people, as we have seen in the past. These numbers are mostly due to
other hazards triggered by the cyclone. Cyclones here also have a high death toll, up to well in the
thousands.
- The archipelago is situated in an earthquake prone area. A large earthquake in the region of Manila is a
realistic scenario. The population of Manila metro comprises more than 11 million people.

29
http://oneresponse.info/Coordination/ClusterApproach/Pages/Philippines.aspx, and
http://oneresponse.info/Coordination/ClusterApproach/publicdocuments/Philippines-National%20Disaster%20Coordinating%20Council-%20Circular.pdf,
viewed on 20.12.2011.

7
Resources & contacts

- www.ndrrmc.gov.ph: National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council

- http://www.phivolcs.dost.gov.ph/: Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology.
- http://ochaonline.un.org/PhilippinesCountryProfile/tabid/4261/Default.aspx
- http://www.wpro.who.int/countries/phl/
- http://www.fao.org/countryprofiles/index.asp?lang=en&iso3=PHL
- http://ph.one.un.org/response/

Focal point Office of Civil Defense, National Disaster Coordinating Council: General Glenn J Rabonza, e-mail:
genrabonza@ndcc.gov.ph
Head of OCHA Field Office: Philippe Gautier, e-mail Gauthier1@un.org, Mob. +63 91 6239 5401
Mariet Mulders, PO H&W, Cordaid HQ, e-mail mmu@cordaid.nl