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The News columns 08 August 2021

Editorial

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LNG purchase

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Editorial

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August 8, 2021

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The problem that the PTI government has consistently run into regarding the purchase of gas
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at the right time and for the right duration continues. While the government has attacked the
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former PML-N government for signing long-term contracts, which it said tied it down and
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prevented it from purchasing gas at times when the rate was lower, the fact is that gas has not
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been purchased by the current setup at a time when it was at a far lower rate than currently is
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the case. Now that it has risen by nearly 80 percent or more, purchases are being made on a
per cargo basis. The purchase of expensive LNG, which will lead to the production of
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electricity at a higher rate than that produced by furnace oil, means that consumers will be
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paying additional money for electricity at times when they require it most. This problem has
been a consistent one with the current government which failed to purchase gas in time
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through last year, and particularly failed to purchase long-term gas supplies at the height of
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the Corona crisis, when it was available at some of the lowest rates the commodity has ever
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hit. Instead, purchases were made at a time when gas prices had risen sharply and gas was in
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short supply due to the global demand for gas in the winter months. For some weeks in the
winter of 2020 and 2021, Pakistan was in fact unable to purchase any gas at all.

To complicate matters even further, the government has claimed that the country has saved
an amount of Rs2.1 million through its clever tactics in the purchase of gas. It also says
details of contracts cannot be disclosed. But the figures available show that billions have been
lost because of poor tactics in purchasing gas supplies and securing them in advance for
longer periods of time during periods when rates are low. This despite the fact that Pakistan

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has two LNG terminals with the capacity to store gas and use it at times when it is needed.
There are also multiple allegations that the prime minister is kept misinformed about this
matter. And that the true scale of the problem has not been put forward. We saw errors made
in the purchase of gas during 2018, 2020 and now again we see the same pattern being
followed in 2021.

Pakistan cannot afford to pour billions of rupees down the drain because of poor decision-
making. Pakistan Energy Limited and Pakistan State Oil have both asked for the government

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to put forward its demand in time so that supplies can be secured. This has not happened and

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the purchase of gas one cargo at a time on spot rates has proved to be far costlier than the

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long-term contracts signed by the previous government, which ensured a consistent supply of

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gas to run the power plants and meet the other needs of the country

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Red list
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Editorial
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August 8, 2021
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As sports should have nothing to do with politics, the same applies to decisions based on
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science. The Covid-19 pandemic is a global issue, and all countries are trying to manage this
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challenge not in view of political considerations but purely with the help of medical and
scientific data. The UK appears to have developed a certain political preference while
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deciding about its red list that bars travel to and from the UK. In a rude shock to both British-
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Pakistanis and the people of Pakistan, the UK has decided to keep Pakistan on its travel red
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list. India which has the second highest number of Covid-19 infections has moved to the
amber list whereas Pakistan – where the number of cases is much lower – has received this
unfair treatment from the British authorities. This is not just about restricting travel of
British-Pakistanis, it is also a matter of hotel quarantine for those travelling to the UK who
will end up paying a whooping sum of 500 pound sterling as the cost of hotel quarantine.

The same does not apply to Indian citizens as they are no longer in the red list. This arbitrary
step is highly discriminatory and smacks of a certain bias against Pakistan and people of

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Pakistani origin. Despite a recent hike in the number of cases, Pakistan still has a much lower
infection rate as percentage of population in comparison with India. Just because India is a
bigger country and the UK enjoys better economic relations with it, Pakistani travelers do not
deserve this type of punishment. While making such decisions, all countries should strictly
stick to biological and epidemiological data and all other political or trade considerations
should not play any role in it. On the other side, the government of Pakistan should also
expedite the process of vaccination in the country as right now fully vaccinated people are

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hovering around just two percent of the population. Recent spikes in infections and positivity
rates in Pakistan, especially in Karachi, have made headlines and many countries do not take

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it as lightly as some in Pakistan have.

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Despite having a population of nearly 1.4 billion, India has managed to vaccinate eight
percent of its population. It has administered nearly 500 million doses and has around 110

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million people fully vaccinated. This should not blur the fact that India is adding over forty

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thousand new infections daily. Then there is the issue of the Delta variant that the UK has
perhaps overlooked while removing India from the red list. Irrespective of what leniency the
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UK has granted to India, the problems with Pakistani travelers have compounded with the
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country’s continued presence in the red list. No country should display such a discriminatory
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treatment when making policies regarding the pandemic. The Foreign Office as well as the
Pakistan High commissioner in the UK must take up this issue with the UK government
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OPINION
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Credibility and judicial appointments

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Opinion
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Salman Akram Raja

August 8, 2021

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In his article in these pages , ‘Seniority v merit: a false binary’ (Aug 5), friend and elegant
thinker about law and life, Salahuddin Ahmed who is presently the justly celebrated president

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of the Sindh High Court Bar Association, has made incisive comments on my article
‘Seniority and judicial appointments’ that was carried on these pages on July 19. Ahmed and

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I disagree about the adoption of seniority as the overriding principle for appointments to the
Supreme Court of Pakistan. He appears to favour it. I do not. Let us consider further.

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The present controversy about the elevation of a relatively junior judge of the Sindh High

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Court to the Supreme Court of Pakistan raises several general questions of principle that have

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clear correct answers but no credible mechanism for arriving at the correct solutions. The best

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should be appointed to the superior judiciary but how do you arrive at agreement about who
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is the best?
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This particular elevation, recommended by a razor thin majority of 5-4 in the meeting of July
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28 of the Judicial Commission constituted by the constitution for considering such elevations,
has also raised issues of context and manner specific to it. A couple of weeks ago a 5-4
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majority had decided to defer the elevation of the ‘junior’ judge. One member, a serving
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honourable judge, appears to have switched sides for reasons not clear, and altered the
majority. The bar associations have demanded reasons for ignoring judges senior to the judge
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being elevated. No reason that might be considered plausible has been provided. Whispers
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abound about the elevation being a part of a court-packing campaign for a so-called curative
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review in a case involving the judiciary. These are times of sadness and crisis at the judicial
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apex.
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Ahmed seeks seniority as the basis for elevation to the Supreme Court until a mechanism for
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determining the relative merit of judges at different levels of seniority has been implemented.
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Only then, for Ahmed, should the relatively junior judges be elevated in preference to those
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more senior to them. The fact that Ahmed’s support for seniority is contingent on the absence
of a more nuanced process amounts to accepting the inadequacy of seniority as the overriding
basis for elevations to the Supreme Court. However, neither he nor the bar associations have
proposed the contours of the more nuanced mechanism.

The life of the law is indeed experience and not (always) logic, as the eminent American
jurist and judge Oliver Wendell Holmes, cited by Ahmed, famously observed. One only has
to look at the chief justices and senior judges of the high courts of the last, say thirty years, to

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balk away from appointments to the Supreme Court on the basis of seniority. Looking at
those among the senior-most who were not elevated to the Supreme Court, one feels gratitude
that seniority was not applied as the overriding principle for judicial appointments.

A personal memory, a couple of decades old by now, abides of one of the senior high court
judges, renowned for his technical legal competence and unblemished as regards his financial
veracity, who was not elevated to the Supreme Court of Pakistan. The memory is of his
lordship denying bail to a ten-year-old child of a minority community with the observation

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uttered aloud but not written in the order, ‘Evil must be nipped in the bud.’ A few months

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later, I happened to run into his lordship at the Lahore airport while awaiting the flight to

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Delhi in order to attend a conference on the right to information. On discovering my

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destination, his lordship commented that his preferred mode for crossing the border would be
atop a tank. Personal memories coalesce to constitute collective wisdom drawn from

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experience.

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Even though denial of seniority as the overriding basis for elevations may have prevented

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some with clouded visions from being appointed, it has to be accepted that discretion works
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both ways. A discretionary process for elevations has indeed resulted in the elevation of those
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who later played along with schemes against democracy or helped deepen misogyny. In
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response to my reference to the Tamizuddin Case of 1956, Ahmed reminds us that the author
of the judgment in that case, Chief Justice Munir, had been hand-picked by the then
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governor-general Ghulam Mohammad for elevation to the federal court in preference to those
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more senior to him. This, however, does not prove that those reaching the Supreme Court
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through the conveyor belt method of seniority will always stand against assaults on the
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democratic process or will not act with prejudice against communities they find worthy of
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being nipped in the bud.

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There is no escaping a process of judicial appointments in which discretion is not merely

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structured by some hide-bound rule of seniority but by debate and exchange of views. Rare is
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the exercise of discretion that leaves all sides to a debate satisfied. Given that the judicial
function is so critically dependent on intangibles like vision and inclination, there can be no
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perfect process for judicial appointments. What one aspires for is transparency in the carrying
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out of the debate and for all relevant considerations being taken into account at the time of
appointment. Often one has to understand that perceptions of bias or regressive thinking in a
serving high court judge considered for elevation to the Supreme Court will not find
articulation in the reasons formally stated for denial. Ultimately those appointed to fora that
make recommendations or take decisions about the highest offices of the state must possess
credibility for their recommendations and decisions to be generally acceptable.

Lack of credibility is an unwanted attribute that afflicts much of the institutional framework
of the country, even where the governing rules provide for security and independence. For

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instance, the chairperson of the National Accountability Bureau is appointed with bipartisan
political consensus. The chairperson has security of tenure and complete functional
independence. One would expect NAB to be an institution devoted to the cleansing of public
life under the stewardship of eminent chairpersons who could possibly have no objective
except high-minded public service. The reality that is in fact delivered is generally perceived
to be less than grand. Poverty of spirit and a desire to serve the interests of the powers that be
seem to overwhelm the formal independence granted by the rules. Why is this so? Why are

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capitulation and the concomitant lack of credibility such pervasive features of our governance
structures?

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While a mechanism for judicial appointments is prescribed by the constitution, repeated

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attempts by various ‘de facto minders’ to overwhelm the system have left this mechanism
with tarnished credibility – at least in the eyes of the bar associations protesting across the

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country. On paper, the constitutional prescription for judicial appointments through a judicial

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commission and a parliamentary committee appears to be reasonable enough and was hailed
as one of the achievements of the 18th Amendment to the constitution. In practice, the
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constitutional mechanism has delivered outcomes that have not escaped allegations of
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nepotism and partisan packing of the judiciary.
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In recent decades, commissions – with membership drawn from the judiciary and civil
society – for appointments to the superior judiciary have become quite the norm around the
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world. The commissions in South Africa, the United Kingdom and Canada have functioned
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reasonably well and have generated appointments with nowhere near the controversy judicial
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appointments attract in Pakistan. Credibility rather than lack of rules is the issue.
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How does credibility set into the governance and judicial framework of a country? The
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Asghar Khan case decided by the Supreme Court of Pakistan in 2012 provides a window for
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understanding institutional credibility and the lack thereof. That case pertained to the
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manipulation of the democratic constitutional process during and in the wake of the general
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election of 1990. The case was registered as a human rights matter in 1996 and meandered
for no good reason, but one overwhelming bad reason, till 2012 when it was finally taken up.
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The then army chief and the ISI head were found responsible for the conspiracy to subvert the
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general election of 1990. Immediate prosecution under the relevant laws was ordered by the
apex court. After nine years, not one prosecutorial finger has moved. No one is particularly
concerned about the implementation of a judgment that was meant to lay down retribution for
misadventures. A fearful government has tried repeatedly since 2019 to have the moribund
implementation proceedings formally closed. The court has demurred. Fear and credibility do
not sit well together.

The bar associations are entirely correct in engaging with the process of judicial
appointments and asking the questions that they have asked with respect to the appointment

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of the relatively junior judge of the Sindh High Court to the Supreme Court. Each such
appointment should be scrutinized on a case-to-case basis, with a view to enhancing the
credibility of the process. However, raising seniority per se as the dominant principle for
judicial appointments is to expose the judicial system to a game of chance. We deserve better
than a conveyor belt that will deliver what is of value as often as it will deliver flotsam.

The writer is an advocate of the Supreme Court of Pakistan.

Email: salmanr2002@hotmail.com

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Twitter: @salmanAraja

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Getting the math right

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Opinion

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Nasim Zehra
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August 8, 2021
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What Pakistan does occasionally, it ought to do every time – when dealing with foreign
policy matters, it must work out the ‘math’ of an issue, of both its content and
communication.

Math, so goes one definition, is "...the study of the measurement, relationships, and properties
of quantities and sets, using numbers and symbols...” Hence ‘math’ simply means – in the
context, content, relationships, policy objectives, your own and of the interlocutor state –
what we seek to gain from what we communicate, what the word-power is being deployed

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for, examining policy-related words made within and outside of Pakistan for their impact on
the target audience and beyond, factoring in the prevailing inter-state dynamics etc.

Working out the math is an elaborate undertaking. It therefore cannot ‘just happen’. It must
be an intentional and well-prepared undertaking. It must be a priority and not be replaced
merely by a top huddle. Especially in non-institutionalised setups or ones where power is
overly concentrated at the top, ‘working out the math’ may seem a waste of time; the
powerful seem to believe they know it all. Additionally, in a verbose culture with social

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media enticements, the tendency is for all to speak on all issues.

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But our math we must do. Otherwise, much can be lost, our gains frittered, bargaining

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position weakened. For example, a few days ago, Pakistan's articulate and confident NSA

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appeared to have misspoken; when a formal sit-down interview was over, the conversation

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with the interviewer was continuing. Although the prime minister and the NSA had both
brushed aside in TV interviews the Biden call as an insignificant matter for Pakistan, in the

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post-sit down interview chat with the 'Financial Times' interviewer, reportedly the NSA

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spoke about the phone call. The Financial Times got what any media would want – off-guard
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comments on a newsy issue. So, Pakistan's internal irritation regarding the phone call
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surfaced, and was broadcast.

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“The president of the United States hasn't spoken to the prime minister of such an important
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country who the US itself says is make or break in some cases; in some ways, in Pakistan we
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struggle to understand the signal, right?” He continued: "We’ve been told every time that [the
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phone call] will happen, it's technical reasons or whatever. But frankly people don't believe it.
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If a phone call is a concession, if a security relationship is a concession, Pakistan has

options". Correct points, but too much about a phone call in the public domain.
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The US administration did not leave much to imagination. Biden didn't call. It will happen
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“when the time is right.”

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At this juncture Pakistan's own position needs to be fine-tuned, to be ably articulated.

Pakistan’s policymakers occasionally demonstrate a tendency for bravado over sober
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articulation and for public venting, often about genuine disappointments, as opposed to
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learning from bitter experiences in bilateral experiences to make better informed policy.
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For Pakistan, through its official team there needs to be a wise and credible public messaging
about key points about Pakistan's Afghan policy and related concerns. Also what Pakistan
will and will not do; spelling out the red lines is equally important. Much of this the NSA
covered – but the no-call anxiety was unnecessary.

Pakistan has a mixed track record in doing math work on policy. For example, years after
Pakistan had made the historic China-US engagement happen, Henry Kissinger had revealed

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to his guest Sahibzada Yaqoob Khan, then Pakistan’s foreign minister, that once Pakistan had
agreed to facilitate the opening up, in the Nixon White House a long consultation among
among top security officials was held to determine what possible quid pro quo Pakistan
would likely ask for in exchange. Kissinger proceeded to tell his guest that when Pakistan
asked for none it left the US policymakers shocked. What a great opportunity lost for
Pakistan.

A classic case of inflicting self-damage in making a policy move with minimal

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comprehensive calculation is the ‘the gang of four’ led 1999 Kargil operation. Their belief

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was that after the Pakistani soldiers had interdicted the NH1 Srinagar to Leh Highway and

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got the Indians “on their knees” the international community would step in to salvage the

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situation. They believed that either Kashmir would be resolved or at least India would vacate
Siachen. We know what subsequently happened. The ‘math’ went terribly wrong.

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More recently, during backchannel negotiations with India some in policy-influencing circles

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believed that genuine progress in Pak-India relations was possible, that soon low hanging

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fruits could be plucked, and that the Kashmir issue could be dealt with later. This led Pakistan
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to erroneously put on hold a well-conceived and well-managed post-August 5 policy.
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Good and timely math has also served Pakistan well. For example, after the November 2011
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Salala attack, Pakistan led by the prime minister and with the participation of all national
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security stakeholders held a marathon session to consult on an appropriate response to the US

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forces' cross-border attack which had martyred several Pakistani soldiers. The result of this
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comprehensive math work was Pakistan's fairly sober yet firmly conducted policy. This
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finally led to the US apologizing to Pakistan.

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Similarly, good math work by Prime Minister Imran Khan, his team and the armed forces top
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command, after India's attack on Balakot, led to an appropriate response at the military,
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diplomatic and political level. The consequence was Pakistan’s ascendant military position
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militarily and a credible diplomatic position.

Similarly, Pakistan's response to the 1999 Vajpayee offer to improve relations led, under the
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then prime minister’s leadership, to elaborate math work to assess the offer. The historic
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Lahore summit and subsequent multi-issue dialogue, including on Kashmir, was thus
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initiated.

Interestingly even after August 5, 2019 when the Indians flagrantly violated the UNSC
resolutions in Occupied Kashmir, Pakistan had done the math right. Its response was a high-
gear global broadcast of Indian atrocities against the Kashmiris and violation of international
law. The prime minister had personally led the initiative. However, India’s December 2020
Indian offer wasn't correctly assessed; past Indian policy trends and the current policy steps
were not factored in.

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So sound math delivers good policy outcomes. What we need is to work with facts and goals,
with fewer words on public platforms –all for ‘good math’ which will serve Pakistan better .

The writer is a senior journalist.

Email: nasimzehra@gmail.com

Twitter: @nasimzehra

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Desire to change

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Opinion

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Dr Farrukh Saleem
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August 8, 2021
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On March 18, at the National Security Division’s first-ever ‘security dialogue’, General
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Qamar Javed Bajwa stated that it is “our desire to change the narrative of geo-political
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contestation into geo-economic integration.” That’s major. That’s unprecedented. But what
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does that really mean? If Clausewitz, the Prussian general and military theorist, was asked to
comment on General Bajwa’s statement he would have said: General Bajwa wants to move
from the ‘logic of war’ to the ‘grammar of commerce’. Perhaps, General Bajwa wants to
move Pakistan from the ‘grammar of conflict’ towards the ‘methods of commerce’.

What is geo-economics? According to Robert Blackwell and Jennifer Harris in 'War By

Other Means: Geoeconomics and Statecraft': “The use of economic instruments to promote
and defend national interests.” Yes, Pakistan has national interests and, yes, we have long

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been defending those interests with a primary focus on military instruments. Are we now
going to use economic instruments to promote and defend our national interests?

Most countries around the world now define their national interests purely in economic terms.
Pakistan does not. Most countries around the world now design their national security
strategies around their economic security. Pakistan still does not. Most countries now
formulate their foreign policies around their economic interests. Pakistan does not. Pakistan’s
overwhelming focus to promote and defend its national interests continues to be the military

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instruments at its disposal.

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To be certain, the two economic instruments at Pakistan’s disposal are ‘connectivity’ and

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surplus domestic production (for exports). Imagine: a billion people in Pakistan’s east and a

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hundred million land-locked in Pakistan’s west – connect the two and use this economic

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instrument to defend national interests. Yes, there are two challenges: a volatile Afghanistan
and the US-China great power contest.

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Pakistan’s second economic instrument is to produce a large domestic surplus (for exports).
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For the Bajwa Doctrine’s geo-economics to succeed, cartels within Pakistan’s domestic
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sector would have to be broken. As per a UN report, Pakistan’s civil and military elite take
away $17.4 billion a year, every year in ‘economic privileges’. To be sure, Pakistan’s
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economy is going nowhere unless – at least – these four cartels are broken: the sugar cartel,
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the fertilizer cartel, the power cartel and the automobile cartel.
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Yes, the essence of the Bajwa Doctrine is geo-economics and the first step towards Pakistan’s
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geo-economics is all about breaking up cartels – and creating a super-competitive domestic

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production sector. Yes, ‘connectivity’ will be good but we must produce our own exportable
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surpluses to be shipped via this ‘connectivity’-not just let other countries sell their goods
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through our ‘connectivity’.

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To be certain, between March 18 and today absolutely nothing has changed on the ground –
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but there is this realization that our national power now depends more on ‘economic
instruments’ and that the state of Pakistan must move towards relying more on economic
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power.
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The writer is a columnist based in Islamabad.

Email: farrukh15@hotmail.com Twitter: @saleemfarrukh

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Delimiting research culture

Opinion
Fida Muhammad Khan

Aqeel Chaudhry

August 8, 2021

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What is knowledge? How is knowledge produced? What are the factors that contribute to the

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production of knowledge? What is the quality of the knowledge being produced in Pakistan

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and how we can improve the process and the outcome?

Researching this under-researched area seems fun but is a tiring task full of excuses from
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researchers themselves, the institutions they serve and the regulators.
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We would like to state that this piece has greatly benefited from the work of Haque,
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Mahmood, Abbas, Lodhi, Rab & Jones, (2020). ‘The University Research System in
Pakistan’ PIDE Books, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, No 2020:2.
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Sound research and maintenance of research culture are very important for a country to
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survive in these times. Producing good knowledge should be the aim and objective of
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universities as well as making better job aspirants, not just providing students with degrees.
But it is not happening; as of 2019, the graduate unemployment (GUE) rate is touching 16.5
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percent. Since 2002, the HEC has made remarkable progress and initiated many successful
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programmes and policies aimed at making the system better but there is still a lot that needs
to be done, particularly in ensuring research systems that can discuss and solve relevant
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Pakistani social issues.

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Research is an art, best to be learnt through a mentor – which, among other things, are
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lacking in our research culture. A mentor guides the way for the lost; and for newcomers
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research is a very tiring journey and directionless journey. Without mentorship, knowledge
transfer is not efficient and hence the resulting knowledge produced by untrained researchers
would be of little value to society. Once a researcher is trained and led by a mentor, we can
safely assume that the knowledge produced by such a researcher would be worth the
investment.

Another norm that is missing in our research system is the ability and tendency to work in
teams. The experts interviewed for the book we have used for this article (The University

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Research System in Pakistan’, PIDE) have all stressed that research, in general, is teamwork.
It is a combination of different people with different expertise all contributing to the creation
of something new and useful. Exceptions aside, teamwork is the most important ingredient
for any good research. Imagine one person trying to play drums, guitar, piano, and the flute at
the same time. No symphony will come out of it. The same is the case with good research.

To create good research products, we need to promote a culture of teamwork in our research
industry. There are however some disincentives to work in teams and they warrant serious

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attention. In Pakistan, more weightage is given to research papers with single authors. This

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discourages researchers from forming teams. There should be new criteria wherein there is

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some additional benefit to work as a team. It wouldn’t be too much to ask the HEC that it

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should either make the weightage equal or give some additional benefit to those who produce
research products through teamwork.

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Conferences and seminars are another part of Pakistan’s university research system.

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Conferences are there to provide platforms wherein ideas are exchanged, and debate is

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generated but in Pakistan, the only good things one finds at conferences are the chicken
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patties served with [good] tea during breaks. We need to have conferences that can provide
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directions, not ones that create a distraction from the art of research to less important,
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pointless chit-chat.
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There needs to be a follow-up culture and proper dissemination of the discussions of

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conferences and seminars. Such conferences should provide researchers opportunities to

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collaborate. A growing number of webinars conducted at many universities like PIDE during
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the Covid-19 pandemic is a welcome initiative wherein technology is utilized efficiently

controlling cost and other factors and at the same time producing meaningful conclusions
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since most briefs of most webinars are published and disseminated. This trend should be
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encouraged.
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Finally, we should set our priorities in the local context. The HEC has spent so much money
on PhD scholarships, which no doubt is a good thing but what makes it weak is the fact that
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more than 65 percent goes to Basic Sciences. Social sciences are not prioritized. As per the
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finding of the book mentioned above, social sciences and business studies should get their
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weightage since the nature of those disciplines makes them able to create a bigger impact on
a society like Pakistan. There needs to be a market-based balanced criterion for HEC funding
of research whether PhD or projects.

Not all is bad with our university research system, but some areas do need improvement. The
HEC should look into these areas seriously. We, being a part of the research industry, believe
that such work should be encouraged, acknowledged and appreciated, and most importantly it
should be applied – otherwise books will grow old on library shelves, without making any

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impact at all. Let’s do justice to the hard work of the team that put together this book and
consider its recommendations in reforming the university research system in Pakistan.

The writers are lecturers at the Pakistan Institute of Development Economics (PIDE) in the
Department of Development

Studies and can be reached at aqeel.anwar54@gmail.com

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search

6
The way forward

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Opinion

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Dr Naveed Atif

August 8, 2021

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The major foreign priorities for the Biden Administration include continuation of a cordial
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relationship with Israel while maintaining control of Middle East, starting negotiations with
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Iran to revert to the nuclear deal of Barack Obama, getting relations with the EU back to
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normalcy, adopting serious engagement policies towards global warming and climate change,
redefining the strategic relationship with Russia, developing regional and international
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alliances to contain China and finally the withdrawal from Afghanistan.

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As far as Pakistan’s strategic interest is concerned, the US military withdrawal is of prime

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concern. Biden has announced that US military forces will withdraw from Afghanistan before
September 11, 2021. A one-star general is going to settle in Qatar to keep vigil on the
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situation after withdrawal, and assess and provide financial and military support as the need
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be.
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Why is the US in such a hurry? And what are the options for Pakistan to remain relevant in
Afghanistan and maintain its honor as a sovereign country? These two questions need
answers, keeping the history of US-Pak relations in perspective vis a vis Afghanistan. To
understand what the US is thinking, we should understand the US’s foreign policy decisions
towards other countries during the last one hundred years. After years of a policy of
isolationism from global politics, president Woodrow Wilson was the first US president to

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propagate the ideas of liberalism based upon global peace, democracy and human rights after
WWI.

Post WWII, the era of the cold war witnessed nuclearization, regional and international
alliances, arms race, Vietnam War, Cuban Missile Crisis, Afghanistan invasion by the USSR
and ideological warfare between the US and USSR, and then ended with the formal demise of
the USSR after which the US became the leader of the unipolar world. One may assume that
the US was compelled to adopt an aggressive foreign policy in order to avoid the

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encirclement of the western hemisphere by the USSR. This also led the US to adopt a policy

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of developing military and economic alliances with European powers against Germany and

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Japan, favoring Israel, Great Britain and France against Egypt in the Suez Canal issue, and

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formation of Nato.

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This status of a single global power was challenged by the events of 9/11 that led to an
aggressive response in the form of an attack on Afghanistan and overthrow of the Taliban

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regime there. The US continued its military presence in Afghanistan and established a

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democratic republic form of government in Kabul, with active engagement in training and
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equipping the Afghan National Army throughout these years. However, the Taliban remained
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persistent and Afghanistan kept facing violence within, witnessing huge loss of lives on all
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sides including those of US forces. Ultimately in February 2020, the US and Taliban reached
a settlement agreement in Doha where it was decided that both parties would observe a
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ceasefire till the complete withdrawal of US and foreign forces from Afghanistan.
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The situation now in Afghanistan is very fluid and complex, with the US in a hurry to leave
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and President Biden convincing his nation that the US is no longer in a position to afford any
further human and material losses, the Ashraf Ghani government with very weak control over
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the country and its domestic affairs, the Afghan National Army confronting the Taliban, India
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suffering from loss of its strategic investment, China, Turkey and Russia all set to engage
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Afghanistan through diplomatic and investment modes to gain strategic advantages – and
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Pakistan endeavoring hard to adjust according to the emerging situation.

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Whether Pakistan wants a bigger strategic role in Afghanistan is a moot point, but one thing
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is a given: Pakistan cannot afford to remain aloof from the circumstances and developments
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happening on and beyond its western borders. Truly, the apprehensions of Pakistan are
proving not to be fiction but a reality. There have been a few recent incidents that give the
country reasons to remain cautious regarding the situation on its western border. Some of
these incidents are the situation in Balochistan and erstwhile Fata, targeting of the Chinese in
Dasu, the matter of the Afghan ambassador’s daughter, an aggressive attitude of, and blunt
statements by, the Afghan leadership implicating Pakistan in supporting the Taliban, Indian
media propaganda campaign maligning Pakistan’s role in Afghanistan and Indian External

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Affairs Minister Jaishankar blatantly admitting the role of India in keeping Pakistan on the
FATF’s Grey List.

Potentially, the most imminent outcomes of the quagmire in Afghanistan are Pakistan being
maligned and its image being tarnished globally as a state promoting and sponsoring
terrorism and the Taliban across the western border in Afghanistan. There is also a chance of
Pakistan being seen as aligning with China and the situation being twisted around to appear
to be working against US interests. There can be a potential rise in crime rate all over country

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especially in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Islamabad, a strong potential situation leading to a

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huge influx of refugees on the western border with all the resultant issues attached, a rise in

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terrorist activities, sectarianism and lawfare against Pakistan and politico-socio-economic

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instability.

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Analyzing the history of US foreign policy choices, the present situation of Afghanistan and
Pakistan’s apprehensions vis-a-vis its sovereignty, Pakistan must work on the policy options

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based upon an accurate and predictive analytical model; even a little laxity in making choices

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shall have grave consequences. Most importantly, coordination and working mechanisms
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amongst all the relevant departments and LEAs must be ensured to the level of uniform
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response to any situation as envisaged in the National Action Plan 2014.

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Political consensus must be developed to counter the challenging strategic situation in

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Afghanistan. New laws must be made or older laws amended to cater for the potential refugee
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crisis as per international law. Strong political commitment must be displayed to counter the
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threats of sectarianism, terrorism, lawfare. And effective and proactive diplomatic campaigns
must be undertaken to propagate our case abroad. Since ‘Syrianization’ is in the offing in
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Afghanistan, broad-based and multi-faceted prudent strategic decisions based upon our
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identified national objectives is the only way forward for us in order to ensure our national
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security and preserve our pride and sovereignty.

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The writer is a freelance contributor.

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