30/11/2021 10:21 Could there be a Tory upset in North Shropshire?

| The Spectator

Katy Balls

Poderia haver um Tory

chateado em North
Shropshire?
30 de novembro de 2021, 8h50

(Getty)

medida que o governo volta sua atenção para a nova variante

À
Covid, as ramificações da desordem de Owen Paterson ainda
não terminaram. Depois de algumas semanas difíceis para o
primeiro-ministro e sua equipe em 10 Downing Street, os índices de
aprovação de Boris Johnson caíram tanto para o público em geral
quanto para os membros conservadores. A última pesquisa
ConservativeHome coloca Johnson em avaliações negativas pela

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30/11/2021 10:21 Could there be a Tory upset in North Shropshire? | The Spectator

ç g p
segunda vez desde a última eleição entre as bases conservadoras - em
-17,2.
In a way, it's hardly surprising Johnson's standing has fallen given the
combination of problems facing the government — from tax rises to
small boats and the Paterson row. The question is, will it hurt the Tories
at the ballot box? There are two by-elections on the horizon that the
Tories are on paper predicted to hold. The first is Old Bexley and
Sidcup on 2 December — after James Brokenshire passed away — and
the second is North Shropshire on 16 December in the wake of Owen
Paterson's decision to quit the Commons over a report finding him in
breach of lobbying rules.

When it comes to the Old Bexley and Sidcup by-election, Tories on the
ground are cautiously optimistic about their prospects (it had a Tory
majority of 18,952 in the 2019 election) even if there is some grumbling
on the doorstep. Where there is a sense of unease is North Shropshire.
Despite Paterson holding the seat in 2019 with a majority of 22,949,
senior Tories have expressed concern over the vote while the
Liberal Democrats are talking up their prospects. One senior Lib Dem
source has told the Times that they have put money on a victory for
their party.

So, what's going on? Is this expectation management from the Tories in
a bid to get the vote out? And an effort from the Liberal Democrats to
pitch their party as the anti-Tory vote over Labour and the Greens?
There had been talk of a cross-party anti-sleaze candidate when the by-
election was first called. That didn't work out — but the general sense in
the seat is that the Lib Dems have successfully squeezed down the
Labour vote.

Still, a win would be a shock result in a seat that has been Conservative

for more than 100 years. While it's fairly typical behaviour for an
opposition party to talk up their prospects, it is worth noting that such
claims were generally dismissed ahead of the Chesham and Amersham
by-election which the Lib Dems then won — overturning a majority
of 16,223. This time around there are a few factors to consider. Both
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sides say the vote is tighter than you would expect — even if the Tories

are still ahead in the polling. Lib Dem campaigners on the ground say
that on the doorstep Johnson is as unpopular as he was in Chesham and
Amersham. 

As for Tory sleaze, despite it being Paterson's seat, it rarely comes up.
'Peppa Pig has come up more than sleaze,' says a Lib Dem source, in
reference to Boris Johnson's rambling speech to the CBI earlier this
month. There are also local issues at play — with anger over the
ambulance services — and questions over the Tory candidate who is
based in Birmingham. 

It's worth noting that even the Liberal Democrats admit that success
here would amount to 'the biggest by-election win ever' and see a close
race in which the Tory majority is slashed as the more likely outcome.
Either way, the Conservatives could have a real fight on their hands at
the next election. 

WRITTEN BY

Katy Balls

Katy Balls is The Spectator's deputy political editor.

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