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Technical Note

Landslides
DOI 10.1007/s10346-019-01137-3 A. Segalini I A. Carri I C. Grignaffini I G. Capparelli
Received: 20 February 2018
Accepted: 15 January 2019
© Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany Formulation of landslide risk scenarios using under-
part of Springer Nature 2019
ground monitoring data and numerical
models: conceptual approach, analysis, and evolution
of a case study in Southern Italy

Abstract Understanding the mechanism of a landslide and its progressive deformation, partially related to variation in water
evolution is of fundamental importance in the risk management level and rainfall, which could reach the highway and become
process. This work introduces an articulated approach to the potentially dangerous for people, also involving some houses and
problem, applying it to a specific case in the south of Italy where the road itself. The site has been investigated since January 2015
a gravitational movement insists on a section of an important through a series of on-site and laboratory tests in order to identify
highway. In recent years, the site has been investigated from a its geomorphology, lithology, geomechanical characteristics, and
geomorphological and a lithological point of view, and a compre- geotechnical parameters. A complex monitoring system has been
hensive geomechanical characterization has been carried out by installed, including automatic inclinometers (In Place and MUMS
means of on-site and laboratory tests. The area has been instru- inclinometers), piezometers, TDR systems, tensiometers, and a
mented with a monitoring system composed of automatic incli- meteorological station. The information collected allowed for the
nometers, piezometers, a rainfall station, and time domain preliminary setup of a 2D FDM numerical model, based on Mohr-
reflectometry (TDR) cables. These sensors have monitored the Coulomb and Hoek-Brown constitutive models. After a period of
deformation processes and their correlation with groundwater calibration and validation, the results of the numerical model and
fluctuation. A 2D finite differences model (FDM) of the slope has the first year of observations were in good agreement (Carri et al.
been created, calibrated, and validated through back analysis, 2017). However, the second year of monitoring highlighted a dif-
carried out using the monitoring data available. A secondary creep ferent behavior, with constant creep-like deformations, partially
phenomenon, barely influenced by the water level rise due to influenced by seasonal rainfall and water level variation. The
occasional rainfall, has been identified and modeled using the purpose of this work is to refine the original 2D numerical model,
Burgers viscoelastic constitutive model. Variations in the piezo- enabling it to appropriately represent the phenomenon observed.
metric level were introduced and their effect accounted for the In particular, the main improvement lies in the introduction of the
numerical model refinement. Once the improvements had been Burgers creep model, with the addition of the time variable. The
completed together with the reproduction of past events, a predic- application of the viscoelastic behavior concerns the sliding sur-
tive analysis was carried out in order to forecast the most probable face area and has been calibrated through a back-analysis proce-
slope behavior relative to the incoming year. At the end of this dure based on the monitoring data recorded in recent years. By
phase, the infrastructure supervisor should have information using the calibrated model, it has been possible to carry out an
about possible deformations to be compared with the near real- analysis for the upcoming years, in order to forecast the landslide’s
time monitoring outcomes and design assumptions. This proce- most likely future behavior. The results allow verification of the
dure allows real-time monitoring of the compatibility of slope structure’s compatibility with real-time monitoring of the land-
deformations with highway safety. slide’s evolution. This study highlights how monitoring data are of
key importance when dealing with elements at risk (Arbanas et al.
Keywords Landslide . Monitoring . Numerical modeling . Real 2014). It also evidences that any numerical model requires a
time . EWS . Creep continuous validation (self-learning ability) in order to accurately
reproduce the physical behavior observed. With respect to this
Introduction issue, Bicocchi et al. (2016) investigated a procedure to upgrade
Some of the most important infrastructures in Southern Italy the HIRESSS (HIgh REsolution Slope Stability Simulator; Rossi
necessarily cross the Apennine mountain range due to the mor- et al. 2013) deterministic model, underlining the importance of in
phology of these regions. This territory features diffused instability situ collected data to improve a model’s performances and reli-
phenomena, such as slow rotational or translational landslides, ability. Furthermore, the accordance between provisional model
rockfall, and debris flows. The A16 highway, which connects Cam- and monitoring data could properly identify precursory signals
pania and Apulia regions, is one of such structures and plays a key that would be particularly useful for civil protection procedures.
role in connecting the gulf of Naples, the port of Salerno, and the
Adriatic Sea. The highway crosses landslides where a series of Methods and equipment
studies and site tests have been carried out in recent years
(Versace et al. 2014), mostly with the objective of evaluating new Area description, surveys, and monitoring
instrumentation (Artese et al. 2015), or methods for safety and Several authors (Crostella and Vezzani 1964; Scandone 1967;
prevention purposes (Intrieri et al. 2017). This paper focuses on an Ippolito et al. 1973; Dazzaro and Rapisardi 1984; Ciarcia and
area identified between km 97 + 450 and the Candela exit, near the Vitale 2013) have studied the area in the past 50 years. Carri et al.
regional border. Preliminary studies (Carri et al. 2017) revealed a (2017) presented a comprehensive description of the geological
Landslides
Technical Note
and geomorphological features of the region, resulting from a for Layer IV were estimated by using the large database in litera-
careful bibliographic research based on geological and topological ture, available through RocData® software (Rocscience 2018). The
maps, aerial photographs, and numerous scientific papers and following chapter analyzes the validation and calibration of the
publications. parameters through a back-analysis process (Krkač et al. 2014).
In addition, surveys were carried out to define geotechnical param-
eters, water table level, and its variation related to rainfall and weather Numerical model
conditions. For this purpose, a monitoring system was designed and Once the geotechnical model of the slope was completed, a 2D
progressively installed in the area adjacent to the highway. The infor- numerical model was developed using FLAC® (Fast Lagrangian
mation obtained from geotechnical, hydrogeological, and meteorolog- Analysis of Continua) software. This software is based on an
ical investigations are fundamental for the study of landslide dynamics explicit finite difference formulation that can evaluate displace-
and the definition of triggering. ments, settlements, stresses, and location of critical failures (FLAC
The site was equipped with five IPIs (In Place Inclinometer) (S1, 2018). In particular, literature and previous studies (Segalini et al.
S2, and S3 in Fig. 1, installed in January, February, and June 2015, 2009) highlighted the importance of FDM models in the analysis of
respectively) and two MUMS (Modular Underground Monitoring landslide phenomena, especially when the slopes show slow and
System) inclinometers (CI1 and CI2 in Fig. 1, installed at the end of continuous displacements with time, occurring without apprecia-
March 2015). The instrumentation, summarized in Table 1, is ble variation of the state of effective stress, and often related to the
fundamental to detect the depth and magnitude of displacements presence of plastic clay portions. The model geometry is 267 m
along vertical boreholes. IPIs are equipped with 2D MEMS (Micro long (in order to avoid border effects) and considers the section of
Electro-Mechanical System) sensors able to detect the inclination major declivity that crosses both MUMS inclinometers (DT0007 is
of the borehole at a specified depth and monitor its variation in at the progressive of 72 m, while DT0008 is at 103 m). The section
time (Segalini and Carini 2013). Each MUMS installed in the area is was defined using satellite images, validated and corrected using
equipped with 3D MEMS sensors (25 for CI1 and 26 for CI2), 2D cartography (Fig. 2). The model grid contains 22,040 nodes with an
electrolytic cells (5 for CI1 and 4 for CI2), and a piezometer, all aspect ratio x/y = 2. Constrains for left and right boundaries are
along the same vertical. A UMTS router with GPRS connection rollers, with only vertical movements allowed. The lower boundary
sends the data collected to the processing server, where automated is fixed, while the upper boundary is free to move. Figure 3 dis-
software converts the raw electrical data into physical units, stores plays the numerical model geometry and the position of MUMS
them in a MySQL database, and makes the results available on a automatic inclinometers.
graphic web platform with security-controlled access.
Results and discussion
Geotechnical model
A preliminary geotechnical model of the slope, constituted by four Manual inclinometers
main layers, was established by using the data achieved with The preliminary studies of the area also took into consideration
investigations, as in Carri et al. (2017). two surveys conducted in March and June 2015 with traditional
The mechanical parameters of Layer I, II, and III were derived inclinometer probes in two different boreholes. Both investiga-
from the laboratory tests available (Table 2), while the parameters tions identified the major displacement at 17.68 m depth, with a

Fig. 1 Location of the geotechnical surveys and monitoring instrumentation

Landslides
Table 1 Monitoring instrumentations installed
Station Sensor Station Sensor
Station 4 Weather station S1 1 IPI at 17.5 m depth
UGM 1_3 5 tensiometers at 1.2 m depth; S2 1 IPI at 17 m depth
5 TDR at 1.2 m depth
UGM 1_4 5 tensiometers at 1.2 m depth; S3 3 IPIs at 14, 17 and 20 m depth
5 TDR at 1.2 m depth
CI1 – DT0008 MUMS automatic inclinometer, 23.5 m long PZ1 1 piezometer at 12 m depth
CI2 – DT0007 MUMS automatic inclinometer, 23.5 m long PZ2 1 piezometer at 12 m depth
MUMS control unit Data logger for MUMS DT0007 and DT0008 PZ3 1 piezometer at 15 m depth

movement that is 6.8 mm (Azimuth 162°, southeast direction) and (Fig. 2) a primary slip surface at a depth of 16.25 m, with a
4.9 mm (Azimuth 132°), respectively. These values could be rele- displacement of about 55 mm at the end of November 2017 (Azi-
vant in the following interpretation of MUMS and IPI data muth of 187°). The second major movement is equal to 16.4 mm
(installed between April and August 2015). and is located at a depth of 17.5 m. The depth of the sliding surface
is about the same highlighted during preliminary surveys with
In-place inclinometers manual probes. At the depth mentioned a layer composed of soft
Results from IPIs are not easy to interpret, because they provide clay is present, including marl and sandstone.
the displacement at a specific position only, with no informa- Figure 3 shows the relationship between the variation of water
tion about other locations along the vertical direction. As men- level over time (recorded by the absolute piezometer at 13 m depth
tioned in a previous study (Carri et al. 2017), it is quite difficult along DT0007 chain) and displacement at the sliding surface
and misleading to consider the results from IPIs in the analysis (recorded along the same vertical of the piezometer). A first event,
for reasons related to the different positions (Fig. 1) of the occurred between 14 October and 5 November 2015, activated the
instrumentation on the slope (MUMS DT0007 chain and IPI movement at 16.25 m depth, resulting in about 7 mm shift in
S3 are 125 m apart, being S3 3 m higher and on the Eastern 3 weeks of observations (displacement rate of 0.3 mm/day, with a
portion of the slide), the lack of data along the vertical (S1 and maximum of 1 mm/day). A second event took place during
S2 IPIs could also represent the maximum average direction, March 2016 with about 7 mm displacement at the same depth,
but provide only a single tilt angle for the whole depth), and during 1 month of observations (displacement rate of 0.2 mm/day,
several malfunctions over time, which cause a substantial loss of with a maximum of 1 mm/day). A third event occurred in two
data. Considering all the issues mentioned, this study will not steps between 18 September and 22 October 2016, and between 04
take into account the IPIs for the calibration of the numerical November and 30 November 2016 (displacement rate 0.2 mm/day,
model. with a maximum of 1 mm/day, and 0.3 mm/day, with a maximum
of 1.2 mm/day, respectively).
MUMS inclinometers In particular, the trend and duration of the movement
MUMS inclinometers started recording in 30 June 2015, which is suggests the presence of creep behavior, marginally influenced
considered the zero-reference date. DT0007 chain highlights by seasonal oscillation of the water level. This hypothesis needs

Table 2 Mechanical parameters and failure criteria


Layer I clayey silt Layer II soft clay Layer III marly clay Layer IV marl flysch
Failure criterion Mohr-Coulomb Mohr-Coulomb Mohr-Coulomb Modified Hoek-Brown
Elastic modulus [MPa] 1.857 4.725 2.350 12,000.000
Poisson’s ratio [−] 0.30 0.33 0.30 0.30
3
Unit weight [kN/m ] 20.19 20.85 21.00 26.00
Friction angle [°] 28.00 33.60 33.60 –
Cohesion [kPa] 9.30 9.30 9.30 –
mb [−] – – – 2.005
s [−] – – – 0.007
a [−] – – – 0.504
σci [MPa] – – – 2.413
σt [MPa] – – – 0.100

Landslides
Technical Note

Fig. 2 Site section A-A

to be verified with a numerical model. Figure 4 shows local Hydrogeological and meteorological investigations
and cumulative displacements of DT0008 MUMS chain. In this Figure 7 shows the relationship between the water level recorded
particular case, the situation is slightly different, since move- by the piezometer of the DT0007 chain (located at 13 m depth) and
ments are concentrated on an area between 17.25 and 13 m rainfall. In particular, from July 2015 to July 2016, the rainfall was
depth (Fig. 5), with a major sliding surface at 16.25 m below recorded by the meteorological station installed on site. Starting
ground level (24.7 mm displacement at the end of March 2017, from 14 July 2016, data have had to be retrieved from literature.
Azimuth 115°). This instrumentation has been inactive since 20 Notably, from July 2016 to January 2017, the nearest data available
March 2017 due to unknown causes that damaged the chain were from the meteorological station in Greci, 18 km from the site,
irreversibly (Fig. 6). while data from Flumeri station (6 km from the area) have been

Fig. 3 Numerical model domain, including MUMS inclinometers position along the section A-A

Landslides
Fig. 4 Differential a Local and b Cumulative displacements along the vertical, recorded by DT0007 MUMS inclinometer at the end of November 2017, starting from the
zero reference date of 30 June 2015

Fig. 5 Water level registered by piezometer located at 13 m depth and local displacement at a depth of 16.25 m, recorded by MUMS DT0007 for the period of monitoring

Landslides
Technical Note

Fig. 6 Differential a Local and b Cumulative displacements along the vertical, recorded by DT0008 MUMS inclinometer at the end of March 2017, starting from the zero
reference date of 30 June 2015

available since 2 January 2017. It is quite difficult to establish a Such displacement could be ascribed to secondary creep behavior
valid and repeatable correlation between these two physical enti- of the material surrounding the sliding surface. This assumption
ties. This could be related to malfunctioning of the pluviometer needs to be verified with a numerical model. The hypotheses of the
installed on site or lack of direct evidence, which could suggest preliminary model were not confirmed, and new time-dependent
that there is not a relationship between rainfall and water level in behavior of the material surrounding the sliding surface had to be
the area. assumed.
After the first year of monitoring, it became clear that the
Numerical model assumption of elastoplastic behavior of the material surrounding
the sliding surface was not correct, thus the hypothesis of a
First year of monitoring secondary creep was introduced. After having properly defined
The numerical model described in the previous paragraph was the position of the sliding surface, the Burgers constitutive model
calibrated by using the data related to the first 3 months of could be assigned to the corresponding layer (Layer III). The
monitoring. In particular, different simulations regarded the var- model combines Kelvin and Maxwell models acting in series
iation in the water table, initially located at 17 m depth below (FLAC Version 8.0 Creep Material Models 2016).
ground level and then gradually raised up to 11 m depth. The Kelvin model combines a linear spring and a dashpot in
Figure 8a shows the comparison between the displacements pro- parallel, while the Maxwell model combines the same elements in
vided by the model and those recorded by DT0007 inclinometer, series. It was then necessary to define four parameters (KKs, CKs,
for a water level located at 17, 15, 13, and 11 m below ground level. KMs, CMs) corresponding to stiffness K of the linear spring and
The highest level is the one recorded by the instrumentation at the viscosity C of the dashpot for the Kelvin (Ks) and Maxwell (Ms)
end of October 2015. The same results were obtained for DT0008 models (Table 3).
inclinometer. However, due to the unexpected malfunctioning of Laboratory tests which could last up to several months are
this particular tool, in following evaluations, the authors chose to generally required to determine these parameters. Data derived
focus attention on DT0007 chain, giving also the good match from similar case histories where the materials and dynamics
between available results. The data appeared to be in good agree- involved are similar (Segalini 2001), were first introduced into this
ment, and the sliding surface was correctly identified. Moreover, study, due to the lack of adequate laboratory tests. This assump-
the computed displacements were comparable with the ones ob- tion brings uncertainty into the model. Creep parameters are
tained from the MUMS chain. Starting from November 2015, the influenced by temperature and other site factors. As a conse-
landslide showed a different behavior, with relevant displacements quence, they require calibration and validation through back anal-
occurring without appreciable variations in the water level ysis. In particular, expected values should have an order of
(Fig. 8b). The results do not agree with the hypothesis of an magnitude of 107÷108 Pa for parameter C and 1010÷1014 for param-
elastoplastic constitutive model. Furthermore, the displacement eter K, which has higher variability (Lin et al. 2017; Segalini 2001).
rate (previously discussed) remained constant over long periods, The new 2D time-dependent FDM model considers the zero-
being only slightly influenced by the variations in pore pressure. record of MUMS inclinometers as its own starting time (t = 0) and

Landslides
Fig. 7 Rainfall and water level recorded during the period of monitoring. After the first year of monitoring, data have had to be retrieved from the stations in Greci and
Flumeri

then simulates all the main variations of the water levels measured November 2016. If the terrain is considered at a microscopic level,
for both verticals. The piezometers, which are located at a depth of micro-cracks could reduce the friction resistance along the sliding
13 m, did not read the pore pressure during most of the surveyed surface (Colleselli and Colosimo 1977). Literature reports consti-
time, meaning that the water table was at a higher depth at that tutive models (Singh and Mitchell 1968; Vyalov 1986) describing
location. Due to the low permeability of the materials and the the progressive damage of the soil related to deformation phe-
fluctuation in pore pressure recorded by the sensors when they nomena. A reduction of Burgers model parameters was intro-
were submersed in the water table, it was deemed appropriate to duced, based on the hypothesis of a degradation of the
consider the starting position of the water table at 14 m below mechanical resistance due to the aforementioned progressive
ground level. This hypothesis is also confirmed by the little rapid damage. Table 4 shows the values adopted for KKs, CKs, KMs, and
increase observed in pore pressure, which reached 11.5 m depth in CMs starting from t = 365 days (end of the first year of monitoring)
1 day only. Table 4 shows the mechanical parameters included in after the calibration with monitoring data (Fig. 9c).
the model, while Fig. 9 reports the comparison between displace-
ments provided by the 2D time-dependent FDM model and in- Forecasting analysis
strumental data of DT0007 MUMS chain at the end of the first year After the reproduction of the observed phenomena, a first-attempt
of monitoring. forecasting numerical simulation was carried out for the following
year (2018). The position of the water level was based on the
Second year of monitoring average observations of past events, with the water level below
After the first year of monitoring (Fig. 9a), the model started to the depth of the piezometer (respectively 13.6 and 13 m depth). Two
underestimate the amount of displacements (Fig. 9b), probably different hypotheses were considered for the mechanical parame-
due to the acceleration observed in the creep ratio after 13 ters of Layer III. The first one (Fig. 8a) considered the values

Landslides
Technical Note

Fig. 8 a Displacements recorded by DT0007 MUMS inclinometer and provided by the 2D FDM model at the end of October 2015. b Displacements recorded at the end of
the first year of monitoring (July 2016) and provided by the 2D FDM model

obtained by the back analysis of the second year of monitoring, the second simulation (Fig. 10b) highlighted a displacement of
with no degradation of material. The second one (Fig. 8b) reduced 11.4 cm for the same period. The same analysis applied at
stiffness and viscosity (Table 5) with the same trend recorded DT0008 inclinometer forecasted 8.7 and 11.4 cm, respectively. On
between the first and the second year of monitoring. 1 January 2018, DT0007 MUMS was interrupted at a depth of
The first simulation applied at DT0007 (Fig. 10a) showed a 16.75 m, probably due to displacements that regarded the sliding
constant deformation that reached 8.7 cm in November 2018, while surface at 17 m depth. The upper part of the tool worked for other

Table 3 Mechanical parameters and failure criteria – model used


Layer I clayey silt Layer II soft clay Layer III marl clay Layer IV marl flysch
Model Elastoplastic Elastoplastic Burgers Elastoplastic
Failure criterion Mohr-Coulomb Mohr-Coulomb – Modified Hoek-Brown
Elastic modulus [MPa] 1.857 4.725 – 12,000.000
Poisson’s ratio [−] 0.30 0.33 – 0.30
Unit weight [kN/m3] 20.19 20.85 – 26.00
Friction angle [°] 28.00 33.60 – –
Cohesion [kPa] 9.30 9.30 – –
mb [−] – – – 2.005
s [−] – – – 0.007
a [−] – – – 0.504
σci [MPa] – – – 2.413
σt [MPa] – – – 0.100
KKs [MPa] – – 16.20 –
CKs [PI] – – 4.00 e 11

KMs [MPa] – – 84.60 –
CMs [PI] – – 1.50 e 14

Landslides
Table 4 Mechanical parameters for Layer III Burgers model adopted for the second Table 5 Reduced stiffness and viscosity for the second simulation for year 2018
year of modeling KKs [MPa] CKs [PI] KMs [MPa] CMs [PI]
KKs [MPa] CKs [PI] KMs [MPa] CMs [PI] 10
5.26 12.99 e 27.49 48.73 e12
11 13
9.23 2.28 e 48.22 8.55 e

showed significant variations with respect to the simulation hy-


pothesis, in particular at March 2018.
6 months, starting from 16.25 m of depth. For this reason, the
cumulative displacements recorded are probably underestimated. Conclusions
On June 5th, 2018 the MUMS inclinometer resulted permanently The paper describes the study carried out on an active landslide
compromised and monitoring came to an end due to excessive which interests an important highway and some houses in the
deformations. The comparison between the inclinometer readings south of Italy. In particular, the research focuses on understand-
at February and May 2018 endorses the first model hypothesis, ing the landslide’s mechanism, which is of primary importance in
with a 9% and 17% difference at the top, respectively (Fig. 10a). the risk management process and could vary along time, as
This could be related to the lack of instrumental information discussed in the previous paragraphs. Starting from the large
under the depth of 16.75 m and the position of the water table that database of site monitoring data and laboratory tests, it has been

Fig. 9 Comparison between displacement provided by 2D time-dependent FDM model and monitoring data after a first year, b second year, and c second year evaluated
with reduced Burgers model parameters

Landslides
Technical Note

Fig. 10 Forecasting analysis for year 2018 a with no degradation of mechanical resistance and b reducing stiffness and viscosity with the same trend recorded between
the first and the second year of monitoring

possible to model the phenomenon. In particular, a preliminary


2D FDM elastoplastic model, calibrated with the data from the Funding information
first 3 months, reproduced the situation for the first 6 months of This research was funded by the Italian Ministry of Education,
monitoring. Starting from November 2015, the landslide has University and Research (MIUR), PON Project No. 01_01503
displayed different behavior, with more relevant displacements BIntegrated Systems for Hydrogeological Risk Monitoring, Early
probably related to secondary creep, slightly influenced by the Warning and Mitigation Along the Main Lifelines^, CUP:
water table. The hypotheses of the preliminary model were not B31H11000370005.
confirmed for the second year of monitoring and it was necessary
to establish a new time-dependent criterion. The new 2D time-
dependent FDM model considered elastoplastic behavior togeth- References
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