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Thayer Consultancy Monthly Report November 2021

Publications

Carl Thayer, “Foreign Minister Marise Payne: Squaring Regional Engagement with AUKUS,”
Australian Outlook, November 18, 2021.
https://www.internationalaffairs.org.au/australianoutlook/foreign-minister-marise-payne-
squaring-regional-engagement-aukus/ and
https://www.scribd.com/document/540780820/Thayer-Foreign-Minister-Marise-Payne-
Squaring-Regional-Engagement-With-AUKUS

Conference Papers and Presentations

Carlyle A. Thayer, “The AUKUS Tripartite Security Pact: Impact on the Livelihood of Philippine
Fisherfolk and Sovereign Rights in the West Philippine Sea,” Conflict in thew West Philippine
Sea, MedNet eForum, Mediators for Sustainable Peace, November 10, 2021.
https://www.scribd.com/document/538518769/Thayer-The-AUKUS-Tripartite-Security-
Pact-Impact-on-the-Livelihood-of-Philippine-Fisherfolk-and-Sovereign-Rights-in-the-West-
Philippine-Sea.

Carlyle A. Thayer, “ASEAN and the Quad in the Regional Architecture,” Presentation to the
13th South China Sea Conference on “Looking Back to a Brighter Future,” hosted by the
Diplomatic Academy of Vietnam, Hanoi, November 19, 2021.
https://www.scribd.com/document/540815786/Thayer-ASEAN-and-the-Quad-in-the-
Regional-Architecture

Thayer Consultancy Background Briefs (N = 15)

1. “Has the Philippines Abandoned China and Gone Back to the U.S.?” Thayer Consultancy
Background Brief, November 4, 2021.
https://www.scribd.com/document/538831632/Thayer-Has-the-Philippines-
Abandoned-China-and-Gone-Back-to-the-U-S.
2. “Vietnam’s Prime Minister Visits France,” Thayer Consultancy Background Brief,
November 4, 2021. https://www.scribd.com/document/538832149/Thayer-Vietnam-s-
Prime-Minister-Visits-France.
3. “AUKUS: Repairing Relations with France,” Thayer Consultancy Background Brief,
November 7, 2021. https://www.scribd.com/document/538832561/Thayer-AUKUS-
Repairing-Relations-With-France.
4. “Vietnam People’s Army’s ‘Double Mission’ (nhiệm vụ kép),” Thayer Consultancy
Background Brief, November 8, 2021.
https://www.scribd.com/document/538833243/Thayer-Vietnam-People-s-Army-s-
Double-Mission.
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5. “South China Sea Code of Conduct by 2022?” Thayer Consultancy Background Brief,
November 17, 2021. https://www.scribd.com/document/541698512/Thayer-South-
China-Sea-Code-of-Conduct-by-the-End-of-2021.
6. “South China Sea: AUKUS, Quad, Great Powers and the Code of Conduct,” Thayer
Consultancy Background Brief, November 19, 2021.
https://www.scribd.com/document/541700971/Background-Brief-South-China-Sea-
AUKUS-Quad-Great-Powers-and-the-Code-of-Conduct.
7. “ASEAN and the Quad,” Thayer Consultancy Background Brief, November 20, 2021.
https://www.scribd.com/document/541704250/Thayer-ASEAN-and-the-Quad.
8. “Philippines-Vietnam Joint Marine Scientific Research,” Thayer Consultancy Background
Brief, November 20, 2021. https://www.scribd.com/document/541164819/Thayer-
Philippines-Vietnam-Joint-Marine-Scientific-Research and
https://www.linkedin.com/posts/carlyle-thayer-8a3aa721_philippines-vietnam-joint-
marine-scientific-activity-6867718675915534336-SK37
9. “The Major Powers and Stability in the South China Sea,” Thayer Consultancy Background
Brief, November 21, 2021. https://www.scribd.com/document/541707469/Thayer-the-
Major-Powers-and-Stability-in-the-South-China-Sea.
10. “Vietnam’s Prime Minister to Visit Japan Scene Setter,” Thayer Consultancy Background
Brief, November 21, 2021. https://www.scribd.com/document/541465190/Thayer-
Vietnam-s-Prime-Minister-to-Visit-Japan.
11. “13th South China Sea Conference – Diplomatic Academy of Vietnam,” Thayer Consultancy
Background Brief, November 21, 2021.
https://www.scribd.com/document/541710399/Thayer-13th-South-China-Sea-
Conference-DAV.
12. “South China Sea: U.S.-Vietnam Defence Cooperation and Possibility of China-Vietnam
War,” Thayer Consultancy Background Brief, November 22, 2021.
https://www.scribd.com/document/541715002/Thayer-South-China-Sea-U-S-vietnam-
Defence-Cooperation-and-Possibility-of-China-Vietnam-War
13. “Papua New Guinea’s Lombrum Naval Base,” Thayer Consultancy Background Brief,
November 25, 2021. https://www.scribd.com/document/543130158/Thayer-Papua-
New-Guinea-s-Lombrum-Naval-Base.
14. “Vietnam’s President Visits Russia Scene Setter,” Thayer Consultancy Background Brief,
November 27, 2021. https://www.scribd.com/document/543126120/Thayer-Vietnam-s-
President-Visits-Russia-Scene-Setter.
15. “China Completes Rail Line Through Laos,” Thayer Consultancy Background Brief,
November 29, 2021. https://www.scribd.com/document/543152357/Thayer-China-
Completes-Rail-Line-Through-Laos

Media Interviews (N =17 )

1. Seth Robson, Stars and Stripes, November 4, 2021.
2. Lê Vũ Mạnh, Contributor@Word News Desk, Dân Trí, November 4, 2021.
3. Helen Clark, South China Morning Post, November 7, 2021.
4. Tom Allard, Reuters, November 11, 2021.
5. Nga Pham, Radio Free Asia, November 12, 2012.
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6. Nga Pham, Radio Free Asia, November 17, 2012.

7. Ralph Jennings, Voice of America, November 18, 2021.
8. Đoàn Lan Hương, Trưởng nhóm nội dung, Mục Quốc tế, Soha/Trí thức trẻ, November 19,
2021.
9. Do Minh Quang, Vietnam Television VTV, Hanoi, November 19, 2021.
10. Lý Tú Anh - Phóng viên Quốc tế, Báo Kinh tế & Đô thị, Hanoi Times, November 2021.
11. Đoàn Lan Hương, Trưởng nhóm nội dung, Mục Quốc tế, Soha/ Trí thức trẻ, November 21,
2021.
12. Pham Van Thua, Reporter, Viet Nam Government Portal, November 21, 2021.
13. Duong Quoc Dat, Reporter, Zing News, November 21, 2021.
14. Le Vu Manh, Contributor, World News Desk, Dan Tri & Thanh Nien, November 21, 2021.
15. Emanuele Scimia, Indo-Pacific Editor, AsiaNews, Vatican City, November 22, 2021.
16. Seth Robson, Stars and Stripes, November 26, 2021.
17. Trinh Tam, Viet Nam Embassy, Vientiane, Laos, November 29, 2021.

Thayer in the Media November 2021 Summary

Thayer in the Media November 2021

Interviews: 17
Trending: South China Sea Code of Conduct (4)
ASEAN and the Quad, AUKUS and France, China-Laos railway, Papua New Guinea and
Lombrum Naval Base, Philippines and U.S. and China, Philippines and Vietnam, Vietnam-
France relations, Vietnam-Japan relations, Vietnam-Russia relations, Vietnam-United States
defence cooperation, Vietnam People’s Army and COVID-19
Published interviews: Hanoi Times, Tiền Phong Online
Radio interviews: Radio Free Asia (2), Voice of America
Rebroadcasts: VOA Khmer
TV interviews: VTV (Vietnam Television)
Featured in: Soha
Media interviews: AsiaNews (Vatican), Bloomberg Businessweek, Hanoi Times, Reuters,
Soha (2), South China Morning Post, Stars and Stripes (2), Viet Nam Government Portal, Zing
News
Interviews with Vietnamese language media: Dân Trí (2), Thanh Niên Online
Quoted by: The ASEAN Post, Bloomberg News, GlobalSecurity.org (2), New Delhi Times,
Nikkei Asia, Texas News Today, Tiền Phong Online, Viet Nam News, Viet Nam News Brief
Service, Voice of America Press Releases and Documents
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Extracts from Media Interviews

New ASEAN chair Cambodia inherits South China Sea headache
ASEAN since its establishment in 1967 has been operating based on consensus, yet
according to Carl Thayer, emeritus professor at the University of New South Wales in
Australia and a long-time Southeast Asia watcher, “many years ago ASEAN gave up its
prerogative to reach a common position on the Code of Conduct prior to meeting with
China.”…
Thayer pointed to the well-worn statement that is repeated every year and seen in both
ASEAN chair’s statement of the 38th and 39th ASEAN summits in 2020 and 2021.
“We… were encouraged by the progress of the substantive negotiations towards the early
conclusion of an effective and substantive Code of Conduct in the South China Sea (COC)
consistent with international law, including the 1982 UNCLOS, within a mutually agreed
timeline.” UNCLOS is the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea.
Furthermore, ASEAN chair or not, Cambodia is only one of the parties to the COC
negotiations between ASEAN and China, hence “has no special authority to influence the
timeline,” added Thayer.
Radio Free Asia, October 31, 2021
https://www.rfa.org/english/news/cambodia/asean-southchinasea-10312021080102.html
Reprinted in:
GlobalSecurity.org, November 1, 2021

Experts Mixed on Withdrawal of ExxonMobil from Vietnam Blue Whale Gas Field
Experts have mixed views about the withdrawal of the U.S. oil and gas giant ExxonMobil from
Vietnam’s Ca Voi Xanh, also known as Blue Whale, gas project, the BBC Vietnamese reported.
Meanwhile, other observers did not exclude the possibility that the pressure from China is
behind the withdrawal. Professor Carl Thayer from the University of New South Wales and
Australian Defense Force Academy told BBC in an interview in September 2019 that after the
move to the Vanguard Bank and the retreat of Rosneft from an exploration project in the
area, China would lay eyes on the Ca Voi Xanh project.
Vietnam News Brief Service, Viet Nam News, November 4, 2021
Dow Jones FACTIVA

Absent Workers Leave Vietnam’s Factories Struggling to Produce

These days, many manufacturers are limping along with 70% or less of their workforce as
employees resist returning to their sewing machines and metal presses. While that
percentage is an improvement from last summer, when thousands of factories like Dung’s
were shut down entirely, most companies remain months away from reaching full production
capacity. “The government thought it could just turn the lights back on in the factories, start
the machines up, and the workers would come back,” says Carl Thayer, emeritus professor at
the University of New South Wales in Australia. “You can’t force them.”
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John Boudreau, Nguyen Dieu Tu Uyen and Mai Ngoc Chau, Bloomberg Businessweek,
November 4, 2021.
Reprinted in:
Vietnam Factories Struggle to Bring back Workers after Covid Shutdowns
Bloomberg News, November 4, 2021
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-11-03/vietnam-factories-struggle-to-
bring-back-workers-after-covid-shutdowns

'Bộ tứ' phản ứng với các thách thức ASEAN đối mặt
The 'Quad' responds to challenges facing ASEAN
TPO - Nhóm "Bộ tứ" (QUAD), gồm Mỹ, Úc, Nhật Bản, Ấn Độ, đang phản ứng với tám thách
thức “nóng” nhất mà ASEAN đang phải đối mặt, GS Carlyle Thayer, ĐH New South Wales, Học
viện Quốc phòng Úc [Professor Carlyle Thayer, University of New south Wales, Australian
Defence Force Academy], nhận định sáng 19/11 tại Hội thảo khoa học quốc tế về Biển Đông
lần thứ 13 .
Theo GS Carlyle Thayer, tám thách thức đó là: vắc xin phòng COVID-19 và khôi phục kinh tế;
biến đổi khí hậu; hỗ trợ nhân đạo và cứu trợ thảm họa; cơ sở hạ tầng; không gian mạng; chống
tin giả, thông tin sai lệch; chống khủng bố; công nghệ trọng yếu và mới nổi.
Sự tương tác sâu rộng hơn giữa QUAD và ASEAN sẽ đem lại những tác động tích cực cho cả
hai phía.
Thứ nhất, tận dụng được một mạng lưới ngoại giao với sự góp mặt của các nước lớn ở khu
vực châu Á-Thái Bình Dương, trong đó có Úc, Ấn Độ, Nhật Bản, Mỹ…
Thứ hai, hình thành một diễn đàn trao đổi chiến lược và hợp tác thực chất, tích cực.
Thứ ba, gia tăng tương tác, can dự của các đối tác đối thoại trong cấu trúc do ASEAN dẫn dắt.
Thứ tư, tham gia với ASEAN và các thể chế do ASEAN dẫn dắt mang lại trọng tâm Đông Nam
Á, hơn là trọng tâm Ấn Độ Dương - Thái Bình Dương.
ASEAN+4 trong cấu trúc khu vực?
“ANZUS (Hiệp ước An ninh Úc, New Zealand, Mỹ) đã xuất hiện năm 1951, FPDA (Thỏa thuận
Phòng thủ 5 cường quốc, gồm Úc, New Zealand, Anh, Malaysia, Singapore) năm 1971, TSD
(Đối thoại An ninh ba bên, gồm Úc, Mỹ, Nhật Bản) năm 2002, QUAD năm 2017 và AUKUS
(quan hệ đối tác an ninh ba bên, gồm Úc, Mỹ, Anh) năm 2021. Liệu sẽ xuất hiện ASEAN+4
trong cấu trúc khu vực”, GS Thayer đặt vấn đề.
Trong tuyên bố chung của lãnh đạo các nước thành viên QUAD trong hội nghị thượng đỉnh
QUAD đầu tiên (diễn ra giữa tháng 3 dưới hình thức trực tuyến), QUAD nhấn mạnh một khu
vực Ấn Độ Dương-Thái Bình Dương tự do và rộng mở, một trật tự dựa trên các luật lệ, nguyên
tắc dân chủ, không bị ràng buộc bởi sự cưỡng ép, coi trọng luật pháp quốc tế trong lĩnh vực
biển, an ninh biển. Tuyên bố chung cũng nhấn mạnh, QUAD “ủng hộ sự đoàn kết và vai trò
trung tâm của ASEAN”, GS Thayer nói. Thượng đỉnh QUAD lần thứ nhất đã dẫn tới sự hình
thành của ba nhóm công tác về chuyên gia vắc xin, khí hậu và công nghệ trọng yếu và mới nổi.
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Thượng đỉnh QUAD lần thứ hai (diễn ra hồi tháng 9 ở Mỹ dưới hình thức trực tiếp), các nhà
lãnh đạo đã nhất trí về 5 vấn đề lớn, gồm phòng chống đại dịch COVID-19, phát triển cơ sở hạ
tầng tiêu chuẩn cao, giảm nhẹ biến đổi khí hậu, quan tâm công nghệ mới nổi, không gian vũ
trụ và không gian mạng, và cấp học bổng QUAD thế hệ mới, tập trung vào STEM (khoa học,
công nghệ, kỹ thuật và toán học).
Tuy nhiên, theo chuyên gia Thayer, QUAD hiện vẫn tập trung vào các thách thức an ninh phi
truyền thống, chưa đạt tiến bộ đáng kể về an ninh hàng hải. Các thành viên của QUAD tuân
thủ các hợp tác song phương, khu vực và đa phương khác mà họ tham gia, nhưng quan hệ
song phương và ba bên hiện nổi bật hơn cả. “Đó là quan hệ song phương Mỹ-Nhật, Úc-Mỹ,
Úc-Nhật và quan hệ ba bên Úc-Nhật-Mỹ”, ông nói.
Thái An, Tiền Phong Online, November 19, 2021
https://tienphong.vn/bo-tu-phan-ung-voi-cac-thach-thuc-asean-doi-mat-post1394312.tpo

After Biden-Xi Meeting, Progress on Easy Stuff First; Taiwan, Geopolitics Later
“I just think it opens the atmospherics for cooperation in the easy areas but not on hard
security,” said Carl Thayer, Asia-specialized emeritus professor from the University of New
South Wales in Australia…
And Taiwan is the sticking point to the two powers getting on better, Thayer said.
“All this other progress, it’s really contingent on the tensions over Taiwan to slowly diminish,”
he said.
Ralph Jennings, Voice of America, November 20, 2021
https://www.voanews.com/a/after-biden-xi-meeting-progress-on-easy-stuff-first-taiwan-
geopolitics-later/6321012.html
Reprinted in
Biden, Easy Stuff First progress after Xi meeting. Taiwan, later geopolitics
Carl Thayer, Professor Emeritus of Asia at the University of New South Wales, Australia, said:
Since the Cold War, the two countries have been rivals, and their actions have boosted and
challenged other Asian governments throughout the Americas.
Edmund Deysenbach, Texas News Today, November 19, 2021
https://texasnewstoday.com/biden-easy-stuff-first-progress-after-xi-meeting-taiwan-later-
geopolitics/544223/
New Delhi Times, NDT Bureau, November 22, 2021.
https://www.newdelhitimes.com/after-biden-xi-meeting-progress-on-easy-stuff-first-
taiwan-geopolitics-later
GlobalSecurigy.org, November 22, 2021
Dow Jones Factiva
VOA Khmer, November 23, 2021
Dow Jones Factiva
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S China Sea disputes loom large as ASEAN, China struggle to negotiate code of conduct
Carlyle Thayer, emeritus professor at the University of New South Wales in Canberra,
Australia, pointed out that there’s still a long and winding road ahead and it is unlikely that
the final draft of the COC could be achieved soon.
“The draft COC which was adopted in August 2018 is supposed to go through three
readings. At present only negotiations on the second reading are underway,” he said.
“The Single Draft Negotiating Text is nineteen A4-sized pages in length. So far there has
been provisional agreement on the Preamble which is one page and nine lines of text,”
Thayer said.
“Negotiations are now focused on the Objectives section under General Provisions. The
Preamble and Objectives are low hanging fruit because they are not controversial but the
next section, Basic Undertakings, is very complicated,” he added.
Radio Free Asia, November 22, 2021
https://www.rfa.org/english/news/china/asean-scs-code-11222021163046.html

Hanoi not likely to join Washington's anti-Beijing 'coalition'

Xi Jinping told ASEAN countries that China does not seek hegemony in the South China Sea.
For Washington, Vietnam "will define the future of Asia". Like the Chinese, the Vietnamese
are boosting their presence on disputed atolls in the region. For expert Carlyle Thayer, conflict
between Hanoi and Beijing is extremely unlikely.
Rome (AsiaNews)… For Carlyle Thayer, professor emeritus at the University of New South
Wales (Australia), there is certainly room for more military cooperation between the United
States and Vietnam, but it is very limited.
“Depending on circumstances and specific conditions, Viet Nam will consider developing
necessary, appropriate defence and military relations with other countries,” says Vietnam’s
defence white paper.
The Australian academic notes that this year the Biden administration has repeatedly urged
Hanoi to strengthen the bilateral partnership, but Vietnamese leaders have been
"noncommittal".
In addition to political considerations, there are practical issues for Vietnam. Thayer notes
that about 85 per cent of Vietnam’s military procurements come from Russia, and are not
compatible with US weapons systems. Furthermore, the 2017 Countering America’s
Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA) holds the threat of sanctions against countries
that deal with designated Russian defence entities for the procurement of military equipment
and technology. This obviously includes Vietnam.
The US supports the countries of Southeast Asia that accuse China of turning coral and sandy
reefs in the South China Sea into military bases. Yet, Vietnam’s own construction could be
construed as further cause of tensions.
However, Thayer notes that Hanoi's work on three Spratly atolls is minor. The Vietnamese did
not place any advanced weapon systems on the islets.
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What is more, “There have been no major incidents in the South China Sea involving China
and Vietnam since the standoff in waters near Vanguard Bank in 2019,” he added.
Vietnam, in his view, is very reluctant to rile China. In fact, armed conflict between China and
Vietnam is highly unlikely. Looking at “China-Vietnam relations solely through the lenses of
their maritime disputes in the South China Sea can be both myopic and misleading”, said
Thayer.
Emanuele Scimia, PIME (Pontificio Istitutu Missioni Estere) Asianews, November 22, 2021
http://www.asianews.it/news-en/Hanoi-not-likely-to-join-Washingtons-anti-Beijing-
coalition-54556.html.

Vietnamese PM's visit to Japan: significant for both countries' post-Covid recovery
Prime Minister Chinh’s visit is significant as both countries are preparing for their post-Covid-
19 economic recovery, according to Carl Thayer, emeritus professor at the University of New
South Wales (UNSW), Canberra.
During the visit, the main topics of discussion will be bilateral economic relations in general
and continued Japanese assistance to Vietnam to combat the Covid-19 pandemic and post-
pandemic recovery.
Vietnam’s economic recovery is important to Japan as it is a major trading partner and source
of foreign investment, Prof. Thayer told The Hanoi Times.
For that reason, a key outcome would be agreement on how Vietnam can facilitate the
operations of Japanese businesses that are seeking to relocate from China and ensure reliable
supply chains between the two countries.
In addition, the Vietnam-Japan Joint Initiative recently moved to its eighth phase. Three new
groups of issues were added to the current agenda of eleven groups in response to the
disruption of supply chains caused by the Covid-19 pandemic.
Prof. Thayer said the two prime ministers will likely discuss what steps to take in developing
supporting industry to restore reliable supply chains, innovation, and development of highly
skilled human resources.
"Japan is the largest provider of official development assistance (ODA) to Vietnam. It is likely
Vietnam will indicate its priority needs and solicit Japanese assistance, such as support for
strategic infrastructure, green growth, and digital transformation," Thayer said.
The two prime ministers are expected to discuss the coordination of their foreign policies.
Chinh would likely brief Kishida on what initiatives Vietnam will take to facilitate ASEAN-Japan
relations, including how to restore regional supply chains disrupted by Covid-19.
According to Prof. Thayer, the two leaders are expected to discuss how to manage separate
requests by China and Taiwan to join the Comprehensive and Progressive Trans-Pacific
Partnership (CPTPP). Japan supports Taiwan’s membership.
Japan’s prime minister might make proposals on how to further the agreement between
Japan and Vietnam on the Transfer of Defence Equipment and Technology and solicit a
response from Prime Minister Chinh.
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Prof. Thayer stressed that the two leaders are likely to discuss a range of international and
regional issues such as the denuclearization of the Korean peninsula, the crisis in Myanmar,
and “peace, stability, security, safety, and freedom of navigation and overflight in the South
China Sea.”
They will also support the peaceful settlement of disputes in the South China Sea on the basis
of international law including the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS).
They will call for the full implementation of the Declaration on Conduct (DOC) of Parties in
the South China Sea and the conclusion of the Code of Conduct (COC) in the South China Sea.
Significant visit
Prof. Thayer said the visit will be an important opportunity for the two leaders to get to know
each other and discuss where they would like to take bilateral relations.
Earlier, Japan’s Chief Cabinet Secretary Hirokazu Matsuno told a press conference that the
meeting would “build personal trust” between the two leaders.
Vietnam-Japan relations have a sound foundation based on an extensive strategic partnership
and close personal relations between the former prime ministers of Vietnam (Nguyen Xuan
Phuc) and Japan (Shinzo Abe and Yoshihide Suga).
Japan accords high priority in its bilateral relations with Vietnam and its relations with ASEAN,
the professor emphasized.
Minh Vu, Hanoi Times, November 22, 2021
http://hanoitimes.vn/vietnam-pm-visit-to-japan-significant-for-both-countries-post-covid-
recovery-319348.html.

Prof. Carl Thayer: Viet Nam-Japan relations have sound foundation

VGP - Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh will be the first foreign head of government to visit
Fumio Kishida as Japan’s Prime Minister in Tokyo this week.
This will be an important opportunity for the two leaders to get to know each other and
discuss where they would like to take bilateral relations. Japan’s Chief Cabinet Secretary told
a press conference that the meeting would “build personal trust” between the two leaders,
Australian Professor Carl Thayer told VGP in a recent interview.
Viet Nam-Japan relations have a sound foundation based on an extensive strategic
partnership and close personal relations between the former Prime Ministers of Viet Nam
and Japan, said Thayer.
Japan accords high-priority in its bilateral relations with Viet Nam and its relations with
ASEAN. Prime Minister Pham’s official visit from November 22-25 is significant as both
countries are preparing for their post-COVID-19 economic recovery.
The pair’s main topic of discussion would be bilateral economic relations in general and
continued Japanese assistance to Viet Nam to combat the COVID-19 pandemic and post-
COVID recovery.
Thayer said Viet Nam’s economic recovery is important to Japan as it is a major trading
partner and source of foreign investment. A key outcome would be agreement on how Viet
Nam can facilitate the operations of Japanese businesses.
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In addition, the Viet Nam-Japan Joint Initiative recently moved to its eighth phase. Three new
group of issues were added to the current agenda of eleven groups in response to disruption
of supply chains caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. The two Prime Ministers likely will discuss
what steps to take in (1) developing supporting industry to restore reliable supply chains, (2)
innovation and (3) development of highly skilled human resources.
In November, Japan will slowly open its doors for the return of Vietnamese guest workers and
apprentices. Prime Minister Pham will be keen to learn what steps his counterpart proposes
to take.
Japan is the largest provider overseas development assistance to Viet Nam. It is likely Viet
Nam will indicate its priority needs and solicit Japanese assistance, such as support for
strategic infrastructure, green growth, and digital transformation.
The two Prime Ministers will discuss coordination of their foreign policies. Pham likely will
brief Kishida on what initiatives Viet Nam will take to facilitate ASEAN-Japan relations,
including how to restore regional supply chains disrupted by COVID-19.
Finally, the two leaders are likely to discuss a range of international and regional issues such
as denuclearization of the Korean peninsula, the crisis in Myanmar and peace, stability,
security, safety and freedom of navigation and overflight in the East Sea.
They will also support the peaceful settlement of disputes in the East Sea on the basis of
international law including the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea.
They will also call for the full implementation of the Declaration on Conduct of Parties in the
East Sea and the conclusion of the Code of Conduct in the East Sea.
Quang Minh, Vietnam Government Portal, November 21, 2021
http://news.chinhphu.vn/Home/Prof-Carl-Thayer-Viet-NamJapan-relations-have-sound-
foundation/202111/46173.vgp

Japan and Vietnam share concerns over China at summit

Vietnam relied on Russia for 84% of arms purchases from 1999 to 2018, but may be looking
to diversify its sources, said Carlyle Thayer, emeritus professor of politics at Australia's
University of New South Wales.
Takuya Mizorogi and Rurika Imahashi, additional reporting by Lien Hoang, Nikkei Asia,
November 24, 2021
https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/International-relations/Japan-and-Vietnam-share-concerns-
over-China-at-summit

Philippines: Managing Disputes In The SCS

According to Prof. Carlyle Thayer, renowned political scientist, and expert on the SCS, UNCLOS
(United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea) does not apply to sovereignty disputes or
disputes over how to delimit maritime zones. The resolution of these disputes is left to the
parties concerned to resolve among themselves…
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Although the Ayungin Shoal sits within 200 nautical miles of the Philippine coast (105 nautical
miles west of Palawan) and based on UNCLOS is part of the Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ)
and continental shelf of the Philippines, which means the Philippines has sovereign rights,
according to Prof. Thayer, the Arbitral Tribunal declined to consider Ayungin Shoal or the
Second Thomas Shoal because it was a military matter and thus beyond the purview or scope
of UNCLOS.
He also clarified in one of his articles that the Permanent Court of Arbitration (PCA) did not
hear the case bought by the Philippines against China. The PCA acted as a registry. The case
was decided by an Arbitral Tribunal set up under Annex VII (7) of UNCLOS of which China did
not participate in and did not recognise the ruling of the arbitral tribunal. Also, unlike the
International Criminal Court (ICJ), the PCA is not a United Nations (UN) organisation.
Anna Malindog-Uy, The ASEAN Post, November 28, 2021
https://theaseanpost.com/article/philippines-managing-disputes-scs

Chuyên gia Mỹ vạch trần thân phận tàu Trung Quốc quấy rối ở Biển Đông
American expert exposes identity of Chinese ships harassing in the East Sea
Trao đổi với phóng viên, GS Carl Thayer, Trường Đại học New South Wales [Professor Carl
Thayer, University of New South Wales] nhấn mạnh, sự ổn định ở Biển Đông sẽ phụ thuộc vào
việc các quốc gia liên quan quản lý tốt các tranh chấp và duy trì sự cân bằng quyền lực. Giải
pháp này không giải quyết được tranh chấp nhưng nhằm làm giảm khả năng sử dụng vũ lực.
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Tuy nhiên, khó khăn ở đây là Trung Quốc sử dụng "chiến thuật vùng xám", sử dụng các tàu có
vũ trang dưới vỏ bọc của các đội tàu cá. Việc sử dụng tàu quân sự và máy bay có nguy cơ làm
leo thang xung đột, dẫn đến việc sử dụng vũ lực, ông Thayer cảnh báo…
NGÀY CÀNG NHIỀU NƯỚC QUAN NGẠI
Cùng quan điểm, GS Carl Thayer, cho rằng, việc triển khai các tàu hải quân châu Âu đến Biển
Đông trong năm nay nhấn mạnh tầm quan trọng của ba yếu tố: duy trì an toàn và bảo đảm
các tuyến đường liên lạc quan trọng trên biển mà nền kinh tế toàn cầu phụ thuộc; khẳng định
các quyền tự do đi lại truyền thống và phản đối việc Trung Quốc sử dụng sức ép để thiết lập
quyền bá chủ ở Đông Nam Á…
Các hoạt động quấy rối các nước láng giềng như Philippines, Malaysia và Indonesia của Trung
Quốc, cùng với tốc độ đàm phán hiện tại khiến rất khó có khả năng Bộ Quy tắc ứng xử ở Biển
Đông (COC) sẽ được hoàn thành vào năm tới, ông Thayer dự báo.
Ông Thayer cũng cho biết, Văn bản đàm phán Dự Thảo COC duy nhất dài 19 trang khổ A4. Cho
đến nay đã có một thỏa thuận tạm thời về Lời mở đầu, là một trang 9 dòng. Các nhà đàm
 13

phán hiện đang thảo luận về phần tiếp theo phác thảo các Mục tiêu của COC. Các phần gây
tranh cãi nhất của là Các cam kết cơ bản (16 trang) - vẫn chưa được bàn thảo.
GS người Úc lưu ý, các thành viên vẫn chưa cùng nghĩ đến lợi ích của ASEAN. Các tuyên bố về
Biển Đông luôn lưu ý rằng "một số thành viên" bày tỏ quan ngại chứ không phải ASEAN nói
chung bày tỏ quan ngại.
Đoàn Lan Hương, Soha, November 29, 2021
https://soha.vn/chuyen-gia-my-vach-tran-than-phan-tau-trung-quoc-quay-roi-o-bien-dong-
20211129005658511.htm

Chủ tịch nước thăm Nga: Tạo xung lực mới cho mối quan hệ truyền thống, tin cậy
President's visit to Russia: Creating a new impetus for traditional relations and trust
“Rào cản quan trọng nhất dường như là thủ tục hành chính rườm rà. Ngoài ra, nguyên nhân
cũng có thể đến từ chiến lược thâm nhập thị trường chưa hiệu quả”, ông Carl Thayer, giáo sư
danh dự tại Đại học New South Wales [Mr Carl Thayer, emeritus professor University of New
South Wales], chuyên gia về Việt Nam, nói với Thanh Niên.
Lam Vũ, Thanh Niên Online, November 30, 2021
https://thanhnien.vn/chu-tich-nuoc-tham-nga-tao-xung-luc-moi-cho-moi-quan-he-truyen-
thong-tin-cay-post1406408.html

Việt Nam đóng vai trò không thể thiếu trong chính sách "hướng Đông" của Nga
Vietnam plays an indispensable role in Russia's "Look East" policy
Việt Nam đóng vai trò "không thể thiếu" trong nỗ lực của Nga nhằm tăng cường ảnh hưởng
ở Đông Nam Á, theo ông Carl Thayer, giáo sư danh dự tại Đại học New South Wales – Canberra
[Carl Thayer, emeritus professor at the University of New South Wales –Canberra], một trong
những chuyên gia hàng đầu về Việt Nam và khu vực.
"Nga và Việt Nam rất tin cậy lẫn nhau dựa trên những tương tác giữa hai bên trong quá khứ",
ông Thayer nói với Dân Trí, chỉ ra việc Nga là nước đầu tiên trở thành "đối tác chiến lược" của
Việt Nam vào năm 2001 (được nâng lên thành "đối tác chiến lược toàn diện" vào năm 2012).
Đông Phong, Dân Trí, November 30, 2021.
https://dantri.com.vn/the-gioi/viet-nam-dong-vai-tro-khong-the-thieu-trong-chinh-sach-
huong-dong-cua-nga-20211130092657350.htm