LE si ade BAI TAP XAC SUAT - THONG KE UNG DUNG (Téi bn ln tht ba) NHA XUAT BAN GIAO DUC VIET NAMLOINOI DAU Tip thao cutin XkC SUAT - THONG KE VA UNG DUNG (44 sult bin, ching 161 bién sogn cutn sch BAI TAP XAC SUAT - THONG KE UNG DUNG anim cung cp phuong ‘hip, KI ning gidi cic bai todn xéc sult Ong KB cho ban oe, die idl Id cBe sinh vin trong nganh Nod hing, Tal chin, Kin 6, Ki thu 1B thing bal tip ca bin, tag hep dige tinh bay trong un sich tuong dng uti ce phn cia chung tinh mbn xde suft thing kb dint cho bic Dai hoc ~ Gao ding cia 8% Gite dye vb Bo tz0 6 cdc ban sinh vido tén si dung Kh oc ‘mén ndy. Theo 68, cfu tric cla sich gém cd 2 phén vei 7 ehueng. Phin 1: Xto sust Cchtong + : Xbe sult cba m6tbién of chong 2: Bién nga nhitn CChitong 9 : Che phd phi xtc sult trong dung CChitong 4: Bin ned nbién nhibu cid Phin It: Tog Ko Chuteng 5 = Use higngtham ef “Chong 6 Kiém ci ofa muy ‘cnuong 7 : H8! guy ting quan.MB: chung gm co : A. Tim th tay, & 88 tp ot tung din, dép 25, C. Bi tp 189 he (dlp 28 hbo nar ctr ta a8 eu cub sich. Cc bl tp hh bly 8 sh Io ce bal todn wae sufl thing Kb, ce Bal ti man nbc eudt thing Kb cise chon Wa trang cte go Wh 8 béc Ott hoe = (0 ding, 8 cc Wt cao hoe Voi myc dich tinh bay 8 tn, a8 phye wy t6t ban dy, the (8 rt van wong va cim on nharg ¥ ni gop J cba ban Coe ‘dm hon tn oun sich PHAN 1 : XAG SUAT (CHONG 1 Xée sudt cha mét bién cd G1. BINH NGHIA xAc SUAT ATOM TArLITHUYET 1. Dinh ngbla xée suit = jn nghla cf ign : Kée sutt cia bid o6 A 1k mot 98 PIA) Play dy w 1a 8 bin 05 oo ep ding Kha nang c6 thé xiy xa trong ‘hép thi, ma 95 bin eS than Igk cho A (nghia lk n6 mult hig tht Anat higm, = inh ngbla thing RE cia xée sult P(A) « dy ™ a thn eu abit A Ki tp a php tim dn, m(@) mi) 6 day : Hinh binh hoe H bidu didn tit a ofc két eye ding kha lntng cia phép thi ; ede kit eye thudn Jot cho A dupe biée dita Diag hinh Gc H. mG), m(G) a 49 do eta ede hinh nay, ching han shu 49 dai, dia teh, #6 teh = inh nghiahinh hoe ea xe cust: PO)6 Chong 1 be st nt ii = Xe soft of ede tinh est dom gidm : 0 < PUAY = 1, PO) wR@)=0. 2, Gidi tich 16 hop = Quy tde cng: BE lim vite A 06 thé thye higa theo mbt trong hai hd nang IRA ning 1 ef m cdch Head oang 266 mofch Suy ra sScich lam vige A Wan + m. = Quy tde nhn : BS lam vibe A phil qua 2 bude Bue 1: c6 n ech Bude 2: o6 mekeh Sey ra aS och lam vige A a mm. = 76 hop : Mat 18 gp chep ban phn 14 mage bp gm ke phn tir (sy tr pda 1 co hai tinh chit: Whde mh; Rhong if tha. 85 46 hep chap k am phn 88: OF = rE = Chink hop = Mot chiah gp ch4p i cla m phn w 1k mot be sgbm k phn ei (iy tm phn Ui 66 bai tinh chit: Ride mhau ; att $6 chink hop chap cia 9 phn ta: AE =P = Hon of: M@t hodn vj cla.m phn tt 1A mot ofc ap tha ty 2 phn t, vi vly a6 1d mot ehiah hop ehgp n ota n phin th 86 hod vila phan ob P, =a! 8. BN TAP GIAL, HUONG DAN, DAP'S6 14. Mot gp 667 chinh phém, 3 ph phém. Lfy nglunién hei sn pm ti hp kb ta, Tinh xc sult: $1. Biah gh do ust 7 2) ly duge2 ph ohm (A) 2) 16y duce 1 png ohm (B) ly a0ge pHs phim (©) iat 4) Vite fy 2 sin phi htp (2 sin phim khge nha, Hhtog Re {ag ty) tang gwd mt 8 gp chp 2 cia 10 phan ti, sy raed hy ch. Twang by 2 sin phim Ia phe phim tumg dag v6 mbt 16 hop chip 2 cia 3 pin ti auy ra 06 CF eich I6y dupe 2 phe phém tithip. Vay Pia = = + «0,0667 G8 1) DE iby duge 2 sin pho tong dé c6 1 pé phim ta 66 thé chi fe bite = Bate 1: My 1p phim: 8 ech = Bute 2:16 1h phi 667 etch ‘Theo qu te nha 66 3:7 = 21 cbch a7 Vay rm) = BF o4osr “Udy dage ph phn” ghia 18 “fy dae fe ade mit phe pain’, Tong hit nay “My aye ph phn” nghta Ln "sy duge 2 Ste ph ph (Cc 1: $6 bin of thuta I eho Cn: 21+ Of 24 chy CF =24 > Pre) 1.2. M¢t hap 66 10 bl 4, 6b vang, Lay ngéu nhien 5 bi ty hgp. Tioh xtc suet 8) iy due 3 BI 8 (A)2 Chuong 1 Xe aut a mt ii Dy geo eur a vag) iar anew 0) ee 1.3, Mot nhém 8 12 hoe sinh trong dé 06 § nd. Chon ngs nhién 6 ‘hge sinh cla nhém a8 lp mot tSp ca, Tin xd sult: 1) tp ea 66 #6 nam nd nhu nhau (A) 1) 5p a 8 it at 2 nd (8). DS, P(A) = 08788 ; PLB) = 0.8788 1.4. Mot hp €6 7 chinh phim, 8 phé phim, Lfy ngs nhién c@ hoa Tallin uot tng sn pdm ra'2 san pdm 6 kiém tra Tin xée sub 2 iy o0ge 2 ph pndim (A) yy due t phe phém (8) €) ty duge prs phim (©) 6g chub) wong tung nop sy ngdu ahi dn hut tng sin Bri khong oan ara san phém a kgm ba (0) iti “Lyf Nod Ia” My Mn bra 1p, gh a ul i tri lai hop, sau 46 lfy ngdu mito sd phim thi bai (06 th ly dng'san phim via bé va0), 1) Phip thi My 2 i pain hom gi de tye hi qua 2 bate ~ Bude 1: Idy em phim du e6 10 khd nang ~ Bude 2: Ify sin phim Unt hai c6 10 Rha ning. ‘Theo quy the abn o6 tt cf 10.10 = 100 kd mag, ‘Tuong ty 66 khi nfng thug Ioi cho Ala 3 x3 = 9. 9 vay Pay = 2 = yRad= ') "So kd mang thu I" cho B la tng 25 ~ Lin duly duge pho phim, Ida eau My dug ehish phéon 3.7221 1. Binh nga he sust = Lin dw lfy dugeehinh phim, in eau My dug pt phe 79-0, 37673, 42 Vay Pim) = 27578, $2 oan ©) “iy ge ph pir” nghta I “Idydge 1 oe 2 ph phim’ 4) Phép tht My Mn hp ing sén phim khong hot Ii ob tt oi 10.9 = 90 kha ning + 86 kh ming thug Tg 18 ting 88 ~ Ldn da ly duge phé phim, lén sau ley duge chink phim 8.7=31 ~ Lin dl lfy dag chinh phim, ds sau ly dye phé phim 13-2 3727342 72 0.4867 Vay PO) =! 118. Co hal hop bi. Hp 1 (Hs) 66 8 bi ab va 5 bi vang : Hep 2 (Ha) 1 7 bl d6 va 6 bi vang, 1) Ly mou nin mi hep 1B. Tinh xe sust a) ify age 2 i (A) Diy euge 2 beng mau (8) 0) iy duce 2 bi nde mau (C), 2) Lfy ng nién mBi nop 2 bi. Tinh xa eust 8) Wy duge 3 bi a (0) 1 ly due #8 bi 68 nbd on (E, ual 1) Pip thi“ nghu nin mB hp 1 get qua 2 ae ~~ Buse 1: Ify 1 bi cia Hy, 0614 ofeh ~ Bute 2: My 1 bi cia He, o6: 19 och10 Chong 1; Xe sot ia mt it ‘Ting 6 eich php thir Ia 1.13 = 148, 81S eich ly duge 2 bi dd: 6.7 = 42 2 Pare A 1 by Lay 2 i cag mba of 2k ng = Rh nt 1: 2 bi mb 45,06 6.7 = 42 cbc = Rh ng 2 ay 2 bi mau vang e656 = 20 eh ‘Theo guy te cng, 98 ch ay 2 i cing mau: 42 + 90 = 72 "2 one - 2 ‘¢) $6 cfich liy 2 bi khéic mau bing (Cc 1:6 6 (ly Bi cia My, IB vag ea He) + 6:7 ty bi ang oi Ha 16 bi 4 aH) 06 7 eh (eh 2: 149 ly 2b) ~ 72 2b cng maw) = 7. n vay Po = 2) Phép thit“liy ngiu nhién mai hop 2 bi" dupe tifin hah qua 2 bute = Bue 1 = My 2 bi td Hy, 5: C2, deh = Bute 2 Sy 2 6 Ha ob: fy ch 2 Ch fy ©4290 ote 1 Bia 06° I ra 06 3B 6 he Kd tng 2b db ia Hy vA. 4S, 1B ving Ha haf 2 bi dB cba He ‘1B do, 1B ving oi Hs, 6 CE.CH.Ch «C.Ch.c# = 1260 1260 = POD) = 1280 ,2091 $1.Di oghia nde at " ‘Dy Bio of “4 bi dy ra of 8b 48 ahi hn’ 66 ce Kb ng hd nang 1:66 3 bi dB, 6 : 1260 edch ~ Kha ating 2: 06 4 bi 43,06: C§.CF = 916 ofc tg 66 kd nang that Ig: 1260 + 316 = 1676. 1505 Vay Pie) = 2375 «0.3671. 1.0. Mot hang rl chy 605 tr lal A, 4 tra eB! B, 2 Wa lal C, Ly ‘nghu nh 3 tal ty thing. Tinh xde oust 2) 3 tr cng oa (A) 1) 8rd kndng ng tosi (8). DS. PA) = 0,0848, P18) = 0.9152, 1.7. Mp. ay bing 16 8 ngubi gi 1 ngu ve, 1 tung v8 1 Sn dao. Chon ‘ig ntian Bia 1 ngubl wong 3 bi béng 6, Tht xc sult 18) 3 ngUd cUng chet mat vt (A) ») Chon duge mat doi béng 16 dy a (8) 14 Mot hes e620 hoe sinh tong 46 c8 . Chon nau mien 3 ‘nguti cla tap 48 lap mot ban can sy gém 1 Ip truBng, 1 top pho hoctip, 1186 ph van. Toh xo sult an etn ate chon 2)08 190A): 8 tent 20 () os Seu kh My 9 nau 8 Ip ban cn oy i vai ted ia 9 ng ty ta dager ban a ay ke, Vi vy wig ly 9 ni Top ‘at tan can cl trang, lp pho hae. lap pho van the tung ing vi mbt chinh gp chp 3a 20 phn 2 Ady ~ 6840 10 Vide Mp ban fn my 9 nee 1 ao te in hah ~ Ly 3 nas trong 85 06 12i: pre er + Lay 1 nit: 06 8 eich + Lay 2 nam : 08 Cf, etch = 06 8Chy edch lly 3 ngubi trong dé €6 1 nf. oe ences shat a, voy may AEE A oa oer hi nang 1: “Ban ein y 66 2 nif, e6 thé duge thigt lop Lay 2 i, £6: OF of + Ly 1 nam 6612 och Sau 86 dBi vai td cin 8 nae = 31 edeh 66 Of 123! cach nang 2 Ban ofa 9663, thé dag thi 8p + Lay 3m, 8 Of coh 1 BGi va eb ein 3 mg, e631 6 Cf! cach Vay PIB) = 96 = 2. o,0480. 0.948 (Cich ke :S6chch lp ben cn 9 ng taht 2 na Bing Aly -(ah -8ch 3) 1.9. Mot 6 18 oe sinh tong 68 606 n0, 9 nai v8 29s sinh Bn Taal Ha, Tinh xe sus Lap 1 tp ca S ng cb Ren 2 nam vA Rant nO (A): ') Té duge chia ngBu ahién ién uot tanh 3 8p ob 86 ngudl Btng nau va e6 cong 86 n0 (8); Dim a newt 8 €) Lap 1 tp ca 5 gut rong 36 HA vA HA ANG eng th ob mat (0. bs. Ache ChE. egy CBR. CRCH C} Pray EAZEBES | pp), EEE CECE CS Cis GisCiot Pic) = Sachs, Che 1.10, C6 5 bi (cola 0 tuang kha nau), b ngby nhl tung bi ‘yao 6 hop. Tin xd sudt 8) 66 nop 65 bi (A) b) mBingp co Keng qué 1 bi (8) ©) 66 hop 08 8 bi (C), ii, BB 5 bi vbo 6 hop c6 thé thye ig abu sou [Bi thi nt bs vio 6 hop, e6 6 efch ; tong ty bi the 2, tht 3. ‘the 5, suy ra a8 ch b3 5 bi vao 6 hop 1a 6 1) C6 6 kha nang thutn loi cho A hose hop 1 6 5 bi hose hop 2 5b: orwe Sed we ini Nip cng gu 1" mg dmg bi i dag bs who sate hip ke aha, nyt 8 cfch be 8 brs 8 bop hae sha sano cho mi hop o6 khéng qué 1 bila: Af = PB) 4 BB 5B wh 6 hp mk hp 1 83 ita 0 hE Ue hb = ly 301 to hp 1.06: C8 cen = bi 2 bi ctm In to Shep 8.59 25 cb, ‘aya oto la C825“4 chug 1: Kae ult cba mt ik 6 Viv to oa ce hop nb nhau 60a ech Bb 6 i ho 6 hep trong dof hip of 9 bi 63.25 83.25 > Pre) = 8 6 01929. 1.11.0 9 kndeh hang (khOng quen bist nhau) cing diva mot eda nang c6 6 qudy phe w. Tinh xéc sudt a6: 1a) 04 9 kndch eng a6 4 qusy (A) 'b) mi nqu aén mot qudy Knac nhau (8) ce) hai rong 3 ngudi cling dia met qudy (C) dy hl mot knach dn qu 96 1 (0). ‘DS. P(A) = 0,0278 ; PUB) = 0,5556 ; P(C) = 0,4167 ; POD) = 3 4.42, Ba céng nha I, I, HI 66 cing Kinng, cing tay nghé thay rinau sn sult m6t lo sdn phim, Trong 96 edn pdm lm ca trong 1 thang 6 4 phé phim, Tim xde sult: _8)3 ph prlm cba | con 1 phé phim ofa (A) by mét tong 9 nuts am ra 3 phé pho (8) ‘ID. Xem bai 110, coi phé phn nha, ch mBiebg nh 1.1 ep. PAl~ 8 a. 2 ) a 4.43. $6 itn toai & tanh phé M la mot 96 gm 7 cha 66, oft iu bing chd 26 8, Chon ngdu ahién mbt 86 dign thos! cia than nS. Tin xd sus chon duge ‘ays enn (a) b) 36.06 6 en 8 ebn ai abu kde nhau (8) ) #8 606 chi s6 cbn lai kha nhau va la 56 cnn (C) 4) 36.00 7 ch #6 kde ahau (0) 0) 38 ¢6 7 chd 96 tnéc nhau vila 96 ch () 53. Bie noha xe out 18 1) 56 c6 6 ch0 96 cOn ll lp thanh mt 26 06 6 ch 86 khc nhau VA i 96 chan (F), Gigi. T¥p oe cho 96 1 = (0, 1, 2 91, tp ofe chi a6 chin F= (0,2, 4,6, 8). 96 dite thogi cia Mes dang Baynansryasag ‘86 86 dign thogi 6 thé cia M Ia 10 ©) 86 ait thogi due chon thudn Ii cho A 66 thé tinh ++ ag € J, 06 Belch 4 Syitarnty €T, 05 108 coe 1) 86 05 dign thogi dupe chon thusa Igi cho BIA Afy A =P) = Af orsi2, PB) = 22-0151, ©) S6 ditn thon dope chon thuba Ig cho C e6 thé tinh + 8g6d, 06 5 edch + Ayetpetgtguty db Ege nhas (wh Khde ag) 66 AS etch sah = PC) = EAB Lo, PO = S43 -o56 8) 86 96 ita thoi 067 cha ake ha, hoe Ie ch 85 stgontg Me eu va ihe 1h A$ =PD- POs oe ©) 85 didn hog 067 ch a Khe nau vA I 0 eh o ef tinh + 65 €10.2,46), 06 doch6 chug 1: Kae ult cha mot bin ob ages Khe naa (0A Whe 8, ag) of AG ede =e) = #43 0.02688 10 1986 go B26 46 cba I: aeagncnsn =Trbag hep: tg =0 thi sSedchIty .0,.09:849 Kate nha 1a A$ toa 960 = Trg hep: tg #0 > a6. (2 4,6, 81, 0 4 hc ty ag a, #0 eh ay eg .c6 8 efch 4 agatgatgtg We nau vA Whe ay.ag, 05: AS edeh, feed, rama hap sty 4.8 Vay 26 cfc 36 la: AS +4.8.4§ 40.4% oases 1.44. An nh gol dita tog) cho ban nhung qubn mitch 86 ca. Tinh sc sult An bm ngu nin 1 ln dge ding 8 en go, i 1) Ce 96 bi quén lp than mot 6 ob 3 ch 6 va la 96 chin (A) ) Cac 8 bj quén lp than mot 96 66 9 ch 6 kde hau va Hk 36 chin (8). =P) 1 Kade 2: Pw ps. Pade bs Pl 148. Theo thdng kb hang nlm & mot ving tang 3 thang cui nslm 6 mua Wn € ln. Tim M18 ngay oba ving Khng e8 musa ie (qua 1 da tong met gian a. HID. Xem bai 106 ; Bs, 2 oo 1. Bi nga te sult v a ‘Tung hal déng au (en 46 @8ng eh). Tinh xB sult trong 2 ang xu 66 6 nud nién mat ep, Giai Kihdog gian cde bin of x0 ofp ki thye hin phép thi tung 2 ding xe a. [S.8).S.10.08.9).N.N) Voy Ax(@O/EN05). Deas PU! 1.47. Gio log 2 ons he ml xanh mt 8a xe su clewenee Tag 8 chi mun wn 2 con a ae bg 79) ') $6 chim must nin tén con sic sde 48 lon han 86 eh rust bin Un con aie she want (8), 6) Tien s6 ehdim xu hin rén 2 con sie sic ta mét 8516 (C). Giai i higu (9 mBi kth ue eda pep thi gino 2 con se ade 6 bin 6650 ef ij) (i) = 1,2, 6) 1 36. 8) Cf in o6 thu echo A (1,6), (6,1, (2, 8), (5,2), (8, 4 (4,3) 6.1 vi 2 fy PU) B= ) Cae bia 08 vob ej: j22s0.2) 523:0,9,.2,3) 5 6:0,6)..15,6) = 06 16 bin 6 thin Igi cho B. Vay PCB) 36 J sing Ia 26 18, j 14,3, 5) la thug tot Bi 5 8 sie Dede re 2 studs now Ebon1 ng 1 emt ia mt ia 1.18 MGLcong #630 ngu rong 4 0 20 rau tg Anh: 1 ngu bt ing Php 16 ngu ti tr 40 nga ‘aga va; 6ngu Bch ng ah ving Pap: gu tng Pap va ot oh 2 ngut bo 3a Chon ‘glu man me gu ca cog a6 Ten xtc su8 a mgt ‘ge chon btn ot 1 oak ag bn A) 1) chibi moe K nang en () eh 2 ol ng tb () 6) et og A (0). ui ‘ing bis 6 Von 0h. 8 hah is dia ton fog Bag mt oy on 9 psc eg 81 ib ae bob og lng Kin nim tong to Dé tin 9 phn ese mi, ta Satpal gia nid at inh 1 Ching han : Mién chung ela “T. Php” va “Vi tip cha mign giao nhiéu nhét (06 2 phd ti) tht 16 06 3 phén ti, Tumg ty ta tim dupe 66 phn 12 shu tran bia v8, Tacs E i x on. ‘mid a i i : E PA) 28 a a, = 1.09867, Bosses ; pm = w 6 Po) B-05;PD)= S02. daa the akoautr rt ee 81. Bh nga xo sutt 19 1.48, Mot ngan hang 80 dyng 2 los! thé thanh toén M va NTT ‘kn nang eda ngin hang si dung th lag M, N tung dng tb (60%, 65% va cd hal logi 18 30%. Chon ngy ahién mbt Khach hang eda ngan hang, Tinh xc sudt £2) ngubi 6 c6 83 dung th than ton eda ngtn hang (A) 1) nguoi 6 chi 6 dyng + loa thé eda ngtn hang (8) ©) ngud 46 ct st dung lol thd M (C) 6) ngud do khong i dyng hé cba ngan hang (0). HD, it dung bigu 46 Yeon DS. POA) = 0,85 (clu niy c6 thé wi dyng etn thie cong xde sit) PIB) = 0,55; PIC) = 0.3; PD) = 0,16. 1.20, Mot thanh phd 0b 8 18 bdo A, B,C. THI dé eda thanh ph ee ofe 18 bdo nay nh sa AD10% {890% ;C 28% :AVEB: 8%: AvAC: 2%: 8 va ©:4%4:A.B VAC: 1%. Th il aan cia tanh phe: 8) 06 doe bao (M) Dyetildoe 119 bao (N) ©) 66 doe béo busi sing va bao bub! chi (P), 66 doe chi bao ‘ng hay béo chu (Q). NEU A, C Ibo sang, B la bac chigu DS. POM) « 83% ; PON) = 21% ; PP) = 11% ; PQ) = 29%. 1.21. MGt dung e&p dignthopi ngdm n6itbng dai voi mot tram och 6 1 ke. Tinh xdc auft d6 cp b| ng tel nol ch tng dA nong dui 690 m. (A) iat ‘Bing ih hoe ta gid si: Ting Ai dat tai M ; tram dgt tai N20 (Chung 1 Xd st ea mate bin 05 18 didm cap bj ing 6 ir tag Ai. Kid = Az te:xePN} "Toan bp ket eve Abng kd ning ld: H = (x: MN} 9 dai PN 400 4 ai MN” 3000 1.22, Hal tau tu) elng cap bin cng mét cdch dc Igp trong vong ‘mot ngay dém. Bbt ring th glan uu lg cng a6 bc do hang ‘oda tu thd nh 1a 1 gi, cla tau tha hal la 2 gid. Tm xd sus mot rong hai thu ph oka a8 08 hang. = PAA) 04. iat Goi x (git) 1a thoi idm tau thir a] ht cap bin, y (git) 1a thai ditm tu tha hai ep ben. (.2) ‘Toan bp bt oye déng kbd cing ca bai toga. H= f(x y):05x524;0sys24) [Néa tau eh nbat ofp bein true thi tu tha ha phi eh kt yoxsl [Néu thu th hai ep bein tre thi tau thi ht pl cho Khi xoys2, Vay A={(x, y)-Lex-ys3} va oat as? 2 0,21. a $2, Cae cong tac ti xtc §2. CAC CONG THUC TINH XAc SUAT ATOM TATU THUYET KU higuA, B,C lh ete bin 8. + Aledo theo B, ki higu Ac BA aud hign thi B wut hin + AaB: Atuong duong voi B. A+B: Ahote B aut hi uit bien). + A.Be Ava Bing sult hitn ding thas, + A,B mung kde véi shaw nf A. B = © (A, B khang cing wut ‘ign dng thai trong php thi. + Bin of di cia A la K = “khong A” 1. Gong thite cong xe suit +A, Boumg kde: PAA + B)= P(A) + PKB) 4 A AnAly Rung ie ting 405 PAL +A H+ Ag) = POA) + Pg) +A, Bkhong sung Whe: P(A + B) = PUA) + PAB) ~ PLAB), + A,B,C hng mung Khe : PIA B+ C)= YA) + PIB) + PCC) — PIAB) ~ PLAC) - PUBC) + PYABC) + Cong thie x4e su eda bign 06 bi: P(A) =1 PCA). 2. COng thie ahin xe sust + A,B dbelgp : PIAB) = PULP) +ABdtelgp > ABAB:AB) dic lap + Kae oul dil ig: xe ut in A dupe th Ki B mult hit PAB) (6 it ht mbt trong hai bik 8 PIAIB) (PB) > 02.2 Cuong 1: be ut cin mt ino + A.B khtng de lip: PAB) « PA) PLA) = PBPCALB) ‘Asay ong de lip PUA ahs) © PCADPCAGI Ay) PCAs | Ay) 8. Cong thie Bernoulli Day n pep thi Berouli la day php thi thod man 3 i kin ~ Che phép thi be lop = Trang mi phép th Ahoge K xa itn = Xe st PUA) =p trong Si ph hi ‘hy = “eld xa itn A trong diy a php thi Bernal PUAy) = Chpta* 4. Céng the xie ust dy i, cOng thie Bayes him hy 43 cf B60 66 Hy Hyynf, A nhém ofe bia of ‘od mn dda kit: Trong mB php thi cb vb et 1 bid of cba ‘him xust hign. NG Hy... 1d ahém Ady 40 va A phy thufe vio hin ny tht tng the ke at ty PA = PCR) cag he Baye: PA)» PALDRA $rciyecainy 8. BAN TAP GIA, HUGNG DAN, DAP S6 Cing thie cfg cong thite nhin ; xke wukt 06 didu kin 4.28, Mt khdch nang inh mua hop sén phém bling céch iy ngbu nhién ra cing We 4 sin phim ti hop a8 kiém te, nBu ob ng qua 1 ph pdm th mua hép sén phém. $2. Ce cng the ah xe aust 2a “Tinh xbe eust: 4) khdch hang mua hop san phém (A) ') deh nang kh8ng mus hop sin phém (8) Biét hop sin pdm c& 20:o8n pind, trong 6 6 5 phé pém oi Goi A; = “Trong 4 ain phém Ify ra c6 i phé phim” 190, ten 4s AyAsGe) mung khde, a) AzAg eA Harty) Pta) Se «EE. oro19 ho to © Bengt Ay rag PUB) = 1 ~ PUA) = 0.2887 4-24 Toh do su mt gu man Mp bing nny 9 Bong ob im ram 18) 06 béng hing th khéng mua hop béng dn 'b) 86 béng héng niu han th khéng mua hop bong den, B6t np bong dan o6 15 béng trong a8 c6 3 béng hing, DS. a) P= 0,4885 ;}) P = 09187, 1.28. MQLIb hang cb 100 sin phim rong dé cb 10 ph phim. Kidm a ng nhi in lugt 3 sén pdm. NBU 6 pds phim. ong 3 sin ‘phd kgm ta th Khong mua 6 hang. Ti wae sult 6 nag 496 ‘mua (A) (xt tating hop ly 06 hod li va kh hod a). Giai (pi A; = “Mn iy Age ph pha" i= 2,2, 9. = Lay 06 hod Tei: Ay. Ag. Ae Ie PA) = PCAs Aas) = PCA) PCRe PCRs) (Bf-0m2 Chuang 1 Kae su cia mgt bin ob = Ly hing hoa Iai: Ay,Ap.Ay King de lp. = PUR PCa (APRs A Ad 1.26.19 hs ph eta motl6 hang a 5% 1) Chon ng nhién eb hod fi tn letting sin ph&m cho ain in gp phé phém thi dng, Tinh xde sudt pha chon dn tn ina.) ') Chon aghu nhién o6 hon Ig dn Wut ting sin phim ti 10 hang. Phi chon bao nhidu tno xde suat chon duge ft nh 1 phé phém king nh hon 0.9. iti Goi A, = “Ida chon tht dupe phe pdm’ 9) P(A) = P(A Aag)= PRDPADPCAg) = 098.096.0085 = 0006513, by Gil pha chon w Ida, B=“chon duge it ht 1 phé phim’ = $A, PCB) =1- PCB) =1-PCRs Ra.) = 1-(0,987 20,9 aoa > 957 soi = nz BOE Vay n245. 1.27, Kidm tra gu nhidn dn gt (66 hod ai) 3 ad phéin 1 met hang 06 116 phé phdm 1a 5%, Tinh xde suft : Trong 3 én phd wie ra 6 2)2 ph pd (A) 1b} c6 nh tp phi $2. Cte cong nue tn xd sust 25 oiai 8) Ay = “ln kit ta thai de phe (he A, Abeta. P(A) = PUA, Agfia) + PUA, Boy) PRA) = PUA PCAg)P(Aa) + PLA, Pa)PUAg)= PORL)PCAQIPIAS) = 3.0,08. 0.08 0.98 = 09071 by B=Aimads, PA) = 095 Pra) = 1-PG)=1-PUR PALPIRs) = 0.1426. (Chi j. Ta cing o6 thé gid bat nay abu saa ~ Vie Ify 3 sin phim cd hots lai tao thinh diy 3 phép thir Bernoulli vine st lty dave phé phd la 0.0. PIA)=C} . (0.08) 096 = 0,071 PKB) ~ 1-C§ . (0,05)° (0,98) = 0.1426. 128, Mot hop 06 10 ptibu tong ab c6 2 pig tring thuéng. C6 10 nue nt fy gu nidn mB! ngubi + phi. Tin xa aust 1) Nous th 3 iy ue phi tring Mung ) Nguoi thi Idy dvoe phi iting ting bit rong 2 nguBi du 808 1 ng ify duce phigu tring hudng ©) Gib si ngudi thd iy duge iw tring hung th Kha néng ‘ngud thd nh fy Gude priv ing thudng a Bao nhieu? Git ‘A; = *ngubi thi Ly ge pits tng thug” W0Clch 1: Ay =AyRaky + BidgAs +AiRaAy (aang khée) PCAs) = PUA, KoA) PUR AgAs) +P AaA,) 1 PCA, PCa | Ay)P(Ay 1A; An) + PCAW)P(Ag 1A) P(Ag Aida) + POL IPCRD IAL)PCAs Ri Ra) e721 9's" woes28 Chug 1 Xe wi im mot bio Gach 2 $6 kha nang 30 ng rot phi Ik 101 'S6 khi nang thudn oi cho ngubi tht ba: ~ gui thi 5 iy dye pid tring thug ob 2 eh, = nhang ngubi cin Ip rit mBi ngubi 1 phi: 9 2a = Pap= 2 by Bln of 2 nguat Adu dB rit dupe 3 phidu tring Ung Ba Asay Arh PAB) = PERL)PA, 1A)» PCA IPRa Ay) 16 PlAg.B) _ PlAyRadg) + PCLAgAs? Play B= Pip PB) (A PCM | Ay JP | Aria) + PCR )PCg ALDPCAg IAA) : PB) 281,821 was PB) 1 9 Ahaha =2 AyAy = AiAats+ AiRahy = Athy ast thyaga Pata). PUYRaAy) 10'S" 2 PAs) PA) E 3 1.29, MBt hop £6 10 Bl trong 46 o6 2 bi dB. Lfy ngbu nh (Khong hodn ll dn uot tng bt cho 66m Kh ify duge 2 bi a8 thi cing. “Tin we eust vie iy bi dng @ ln th 3. $2. Ge ng nd tin xd st 2 iat ‘Ay = "Mn yap oa By = “Dimg dn "j= 2, 8,10, A210 By + A\Rahy + Aids AB, = PUA, PCR 1 Ay PAA Ay Bad + POR)P(Ay|AVIPUAg Big) = @ 1.30, Ba xa thd cing bin mi ngui 1 vién dan vao mbt con thi. Xée sust bdr tung thd cia tang xe thd tang dng a 0,6 0.6 : 0.8. Gia sd tha bi trang 2 ven dan (A) thi xac sual xe thd thu ht én tring Ko 6 i bao rig 7 iat ‘A, = "Kathi tha ibm tring tho" i= 1, 2,3 Ay de Mp 5 iAgHa + Ay Kaas +AiApAs (xung ke) > PIA)=05 06.0.2 +05 .0.4.0,8 05.06.08 =0.46 PAA) 2 Ay Ra an PAY 5.0,6.0.2+05.0,40, 048 1.31. Motngp £6 3 bi xanh, 6 bi a3, 6 bi vang. LAy Agu nin 2 bit op, th xc sud ly cuge 2 bi khong cing mau xanh (A). iat wn. PUA) =1-P@)-0,97704, =0,4788.28 Chvong 1: Kae mult cia wt hi 41.32. Knd nding gp rio kh duty ede yn ft tang ung 1a 9%, 79h va gap tO ro dng tht ki Ou bcd 2 oy dn Ta 4%, NEU «fu tu cA 2 64 €n, tinh de aut 2) Cnty an Bp roa) 1) Chl ey dg ir (8) €) Gap di r0(0) 4 Kn 98910 (0). out 'A, uv dni ghp mio, bef 1 A= ALD Aa +a) = Ay a = P(A))= PlAjAg)+P(A, Ag) (xing hide) PIA)= UA, a)= PUA) -PUA, Ag) = 009 - 004 = 08 1b) Be ARe + Ridy tog ty ua ob POA) = 0.08 + P(A1Ay) « 0,05 + 0,03 = 0,08. Pep) = (ah CoA say PIC) = PLA) + PUAg)=PCAyAg) = 0,12 a) PD) = 1 RC) = 088, (Chui 5, Bi ton nay cong gid dag bing bidu dB Venn 41.33, Mot xinghigp 65 2 618 heat déng dBc ap. Xée sual rong mot ingly lim vide ce 6 8 nay hag tyong dng la 0,08 0,4. Tih ae Sulit trong met ngay am vige xi nghip ob 2) 268mg (A) 2) 061818 héng (8) «0 6 hing (). LHD: A,="0W thing’, Ay-Ap Ate gp, A= ArAat Be AgRe + Rida: C= Arse FA) = 0008 FB) #0164; 10) = 07 $2, Ce cong ten x su Ed 1.34. Mgt tho 062 van bb hiém hoa! ong dbs lp, xc suat mbt vvan ng tuong ung i 0,1 ; 0,05. “Tian xc sui nf ho hoat dng an toan 8) Kh nino 0 van thing hg (A) b) Kind not ong €6 van hBag (8). BS. PIA) = 0,995 ; PIB) = 0858. 1.38. Xdc sult nb cng tb trong mach (h.3} dng a Pi 1.2.6), cee obng the host dng dbc tp, “ion xe sult 06 mach A, B cd don, ii ‘A; = Tong the dong" © 1,2, 1B = “mach chia cing the 1,26 i ‘By = “mach chin cing the 3 6 din”. By = “mgch chia cong tde 4, $6 dita” M-="mgch AB of dita” = (B, +By +By) Ag 5,787 - BBB PB) Be By) = PBL) PB) POBs) -POB, KAA -P(BQ)1- PIB)? ~P(Ay Ag)X1~ POA) PLA Ag) 2 0-RPM1-PyMO-PAPR) By=ALAyx hg 1 ati bao {$2.Che cong ne tah nt ult 3 PIM) = PO + By +By)PCAg) (te Mp) Bea -[1-PG TR TB)]PAy) =[1-0-RPpa-PYA-PARI] Ry. Ba eTibgha+ BiRahg: ‘P(A, Aaa) = PCA, IPCs | Ay PCAs 1A; As) = 3 } Gigi) eee “LAT. Xc suit 48 mot may hoat dong 16 thai pian T 140.7 : qua thot 1a) ving a akan duge ma a minh (A) ian 2 40,3 vA qua thot gan STi 0,1 ) Cheb + ng nhén dae mG eda minh (8). ©) N6u may 8 hogt dng tl glan T th xée subt d8 n6 noat iti «dong aud thoi lan 271 bao nhiou? 1) Aj “gui deh i aha dye ma eda rah b) Nu may 68 hoat dong ti th ian T th xc suit nd hoat = ong thém quing hai gian han 2T la bao eu 7 Beay+AatAs UR) = PUA) + PUA) + Pag) = PUAy/Ag)-PUALAy)~PlAgAg) + PCAs) “May hogt Abng ti thd gian i 3 a Tach Ag cA; = AyAg = Ay = PUbyAa) _ PCy) 03 _3 Penal FAD” PA) 0 by B = "My hont dong quiing thoi gan hon 27 sau KAi da host Abas Arka 8 Avda CAVAaAD = Auda AsAaA ag toi = Ay ® eee nee Agcy wm Ayhy ody 1 Tung Ady = Aa = Ada 5 PU Agdyd= 2, 13 =i) = 2D 2 2 Ps) 2 1.38, Mgt na hong duge inh ra trong met ga dnh 6 2 da be. PA) =8.4-2-PUAads) = 5 Tinh xe suét dla bé cn igi la gai, biét rang néu gia dinn cd 7 2 con gi th ngudi chi 68 lam nd Roan. Pare 1-PaDeb Gidi ek con gt": PA) = ich Khe: A= Ba RaRe “Gia diah c6 con gAi" : PCA) =F = PA)» PO )PCRa Ai) PUR Aa) B ="Gia dah ob 2 con gh" @ BC Ava PB) = 3 = Xie vue PO hi) =1-PUag LAV eee uae! 1 + 2 PAB) PO) 41 = POA), een Pade PO PGs Ana) =1-PCAs 1A a) «1.hong 1 Xe ult cia mt bin of ee ———————— 1.38 Sn phim cba phan wing 1 eid 60% ng sn Mong ca x 8 nahin. aoe sin pm seat gdp aA tory 0 co pons 2 note ria) = MAD 4 70% la cba phin xudng 1. Chen ngdu nhidén mot sin phdm: 18 PAY 18 8 Gla xing of dm Tine ot e z pe 1.41. MGs in mui oi tinh ok oe oh Qua hv Sin ond do oi 8,6 hng an pm ce chon od Iguyen te 6 Wt ny ml Guve esa. Kae ua ‘hn von ta 0.8. NG ob 8 oie ui son in a dg tr a 8 tog 8 ‘= -Sin phim pe hn eg A Bitnanelin vie sutt smn vn bt i ealb OF Bs -Sin phim dap hg cin phn wg 1 Tinh xe su si vin oo ck 3) BIA =07 ©) NBu sven a6 knongnotn man ks ne xe s8 aon se su nin tabi tvor Ou man labeo mie > oii PAR) MAIPBIA) 0807 arn= MAB). PAIPBIA) 9807, yang, ‘Ajo *Sinh vit 4 thd 71, 2,9, 140. Prin 26 nee sh a mt hos che wong bing 2) A AiAgAy = PA)= PADP(Ag1A,) Ply Ag) { T_Netmann Ngoei anh = 09,086 07 = 0.5388. a ra ee 0 Be "Sinh itn Khoo hointhich Mind he” Ne Lr a - B=Ai+A,Az+A,ApAs hon naka win més si ae. ee a omen (ick PO = PT) A, + PCA Aa) 1a) Hoc sinh duge chon & ngoai thanh, biét ring em 6 1a nd. =PCR:) + PCA, ). PCa | Ay) + POA; IPCAg | A, YPCAa Ay) by Hoe sinh ue chon, ing em 68 8 goal nh 1 +09. 025 + 09.085 .03 «04645 oii ich 2: = 1 FA «04648 ‘A.s Hoe sinh dupe chon @ ngoai thi B= "Hoe sinh de chon a nt Vi A\Ae cB, POA,Aa) 0.15 nn xe sult ohn tink 0B) | POA, Aa) _ PCA, CR |v) Pa)” PB) Pelee +142, Mot hop g6m 6 sin phim logit, 4 sn phdm loa 2. Lfy ng ‘nian ifs tugt ting sin phd ra'2 edn phim (khOng hoa I). Pta,Fa ia) = spin & © pape & Pu Tinh xac suat : hoge PAB) = RAB! i 7 PB) "20 "§ 18) Ly dugc 2 san phim lal 2, biét rng cb sin phim loai 2 8 6 use Igy aa de acute nk Ono% Chong 1 Xe et im mot bio b) Ly duge met sin phim log 2 bit ring 68 6 tt nhét met ‘hd loi 2 €8 dude ify. Gai 4) Aw “Trong 2 sin phim ly xa of stn phi Loni 2. Ay = “Ln i lay dye san phim Logi 2" i = 1,2. PO) = POR Fe) = PIPRe Ad ~ S303 mays PR) =2 Bac AS Aaa A= Ardy he wt ch th PlAyAgA) _PlALAR) Se ae earl Pa 43 ADP IAD 0°52 Pa) 28 3 1) Be“LAy de 1 sin phim oi 2 (trong 2 sin pin = Aha viiAy BcASAB=B. desc in PAB) | PAB) _ PCA, )PCRa 1 Ay) + PORDPCAg IZ poiaveAD BB. ie 08. 4.43, Bln ion tsp vo mot mye tidu cho dein kn co mot vien dan (hu tén trang me HéU Mi nging ban. Thm xae suBt sa0 cho phi ban tin thd 4, bist xae Sut tng mye tdu cba mBi Vn ban la nhu ahau va bing 0. Gai A "Vio thi i tring mye tidu" seehenhc eu net nine $2. Ce cing hist xa eu 2s ‘A= “Béa tn vitm tho 4 th ging” AaRiRaBaay fe bia of Ay,Ag,Ag.Ay khong de Idp va POA IAL) = 07 PCAs IAD = PUA) = PRPC (Ai) PCR | Ava) PA, |r Raa Mat khée : Rec Ti => Ai Re = Ae AscBa ch: = AiRAs = As Vay PUA) « (1 ~ 0,4) (1 ~ 0,4) (1 0,4). 0,4 = 0,0864, 1.44 Mot nbp cf 10 bi trong 6606 3 bi a, 42) Ly ngfu nhign khéng Roar ll Kn Iugt king bt cho dn kh Ky de 95 cn. se ul ie yb ing 8 en ) Ly nau nién Khong hod alin ket tng bi cho an ki ky 8496 2 bi thi dng. Tinh xae eust vie ky bi cing lat 2 Kn that (8) Git 204 Age “Lh iy age bi a o AeTiRaay Pu b) Be A,AnAsAy + AidgAsAy + ArAzAgAy POR Kaayhg)= PCR PCRa | Ai) PCAs |r Aa)PCAg |r Reds)38. Chuong 1 Kae su ci mgt bio oS Cong thize Bernou! +145, Mot may sin xust fn tuo ting sd pgm. Xa sult may sén xuft ra 6 phd 180,08, Tinh xc out {2 Trong 10 sin phim may sin xust a 068 ph phém (A) ') Trang 10 sin phim my si xual ra 06 phé phim (B) (0) Clin tien ta 181 thidy bao nbigu sin phéim eda may san xust ‘a d6 rao sust cé ph prim (C) hen 80%. Gias May sin xuit_n sin phim twmg img vii day 2 phép thi ‘Bernoulli voi née sot aut hign ph phém Ih 0,08. 8) PUA) = Cf(0.08).0.927 =0,0848 by P@)= 1-PB)=1-Cfy . (6,080.92 « 0,5656 2 PO) = 1-C).(0,08)°.(0.92)" 20,9 = 90" <0. -P@) Logarit hod: n 1p 092-5 0,1 1n0, n> 202 cores. 02 hai didu tra ti chi 28 sin phim, 1.48, Mt nquei mai ng 11 6 not a6 bén hang. Xéc aust bén voc thang mi no ea ngs la 0,3. Tinh xde sult ngual 66 bn ‘duge hang tong mot nga. HID. 6 uci bin hing la 6 phép thitBernouli. BS ;0,882851. 4. xde sual tu thy Bn knong qué mac quy dnh cla mét nha may trong 4 ngly 1 0,8. Th xde aust trong 1 tudn (6 ngby) ‘ha may 2) 00 A ngy teu ty den Knong qua mie quy dink 1b) oo mga itu thy aign qué mae quy gn HD. 6 agty cia uhh mfy 1A 6 phép thit Bernoulli vei ito “Ae ‘Ney tits thy dita khong qu rade quy dh Ds: 9024576; »)0,73786. $2. Che cong thie toh be sult ” 11.48, Phi tung con sue stl bao nhidu lan a8 xéc out xufthidn mat chim 0.9. Ds. 1.49, 62a thi, mi nu bin 8 vdn dan vio cing mét bia. Xée sult ‘bln ing ich mca 2 xa th tong Ung 8:07. “hob xbe sult 2) Bia bj rng dn (A) ») Bia bi tring 2 vin dan (8) iti, A, = %q thi th nbft bn tring i vita daa” 1B, "Ka thi thi ha bn tring ivi dan’, 1) P(A) =1- PO) = 1-P(AgBQ) = 1-PCAg)Pp) =2-C80.99.(0.08. 10,02 (09 =1 b) BaApBo +AiBs + ABs PlagBy)=PCA,) . POB,)= Chas 0.4*. 0.98 »27088,10°° PCA,B,) = PCALIPC) = = €h.0,6.0,47. }.0,7.0,3" = 9,68158.10% PlAgBy) = PUAQ PCB) = 0.48 C$ 0720.98 « 6554810 Do cp bine nung Khe P12) = 0.000018. 1.80, MO bal hi trde nghidm c6 20 ctu; mBi chu £6 4 dép 86, hung chilob 1 dap s6 ding. Tinh xtc sust mot hoe sinh lam bl hi Vai mot coh gu nin dug 9 cau ding Bs. 0.02706. 1.81. Mach olgn mac song song 88 host dong duve néu o6 it nhat ‘mét hath phdn cla né hoat dng bin thudng 1) Xét meen ign me song song oo 5 tnanh phn host ang de Hi ‘ix sult oat dng ea mB tinh phn 1.07. Tah xd eu8 avon 1: Xd elt cia mt bin 5 12) Mach host dng bin thug (A) b) Mach 2 thanh phn host dng (8) ) Mech c6 2 ah phn hoet dong, mt dng mach hoat dng bin thudeg 2) Nu xdo sua noat dng eda mBi than phn 18.0.4, 68 mach hat dag binh thudng ve xdc sult rn 95% th em mae song ‘song nha bao ahiu than phn ? HD, va BS. P(A) = 090757 ; PB) = 0.1893 te BoASAB=B,PAB)= PO) PIBIA) = 0.19262. aye ahi 6. 1182, C6 2 loa! may bay : 5 dng 00, 3 63ng o9. XA sult eda mi ng eon may bay hdng a 0,1. Ce ddng co host dng ade tap. May bay vn 1i6p tye bay Khl 6 non nia 86 d6ng co vin hhoat dng, Cho bit loai may bay § dng ca hay 3 dong co thich nap hon? ‘As "May bay log $ dng ca van bay ti" B= "My bay loi 6 dbng os vdn bey ts. ‘Taxi mi dfug co 1 1 phép thi Bernoulli, PlA)= C09" 01-309" =0.072 PCB) = ch09%03"+ €f.0.0¢0.1+ 088 «0.90144 1B) > P(A): May bay 6 dong eo thich hep hom. 1153. C6 20 nbp an phim. MBI Np cb & sin phim losi A, 2 sin pdm loa B. LUfy ngs nbién mi hd 1 sin phim 66 kim ta, Tia xe sult trong 56 sn pif ly ra eé 2 sn phém ogi B, $2. Ce cong thie oh xe eust 30 Giai ‘MBi Idn ly 1 sin phém tr mi hop 181 phép thi Bernoulli wei sie suit I6y dye sin phim logtB 180.2, Xie wast etn ah Ik p= Ch.0.2%08* «0.2900, 1.84. Mgt m6 inh don gi v8 bin 66 6 ching Khosn : trong mot ‘hid glao dich gid lan 1 don vi A, gid idem mot don v4 Ik 1p, Su thay a8i ga cl cle phn Ik de dp. a) Tinh xd sult sau 8 phign giao ech gi tng lan ¥ don vi (A), 'b) Nu sau 9 phitn giao dich gid tang en 1 da vi thi xe ust git ‘tng trong phidn déu tan 1 bao nhigu 7 Gi. a) Mai pit gino djch la mgt phép thi Bernoulli ‘Trong 3 phign gi tang 2 Ito, gidm 1 Ida" PLA) = Cip"(1-p), by A; = "Gidtang trong phién tha * Rady +AiAaKs +Bibahy Ay AyRahy +a PCA,A) = PA; Ang) + P(A; ApAa) = 2p?.1—p) Paya. apP-p) 2 PAY” Gita 9) 3 4.8. Hal ahd my vt ong sn x mt on sin pdm 18 ph pm a tong dng a2 vi 2) MétKhch nang mua ng nhidn 5 sin pm ce Tinh xc tut trong abn pm 45 6p phim (A) 3) Mendon hang mua S sin phfm oda! va 6 adn pdm oda “Tinh xe aut tong a6 si phim age mus e6 ph pdm (8). POALIA)40 Chuang 1: Xe alt cba it bi Gigi ‘a) Khéch hang mua § sin phim twong dag voi 5 phép thir Bernoulli PA,) = 1-PCRL) = 1-C9.0,029(0, 989 = 0,096. bb) Age “Khéch hing mua 6 sin phim ei II ob phé phim”. PUA,) =0.167 Tach: Be Ay +e P(B)=P(A,)+ PlAg)~ PCA, PCa) = 0.2471. Céng thite xbe suit dy di, cOmg thife Bayes +186, Mot phn xudng c6 9 may cdng sin xust mét oa! sin phém. San lugng ob ede may ny an xtra hid 119 5% ; 40%; 25% toan be sn lugng oda phan xung. T11 ph6 phéim oda cede may ny tuong Ung la 1% ; 1.5% ; 0.8%, Ly ngdu nhién imdt sén phim cla phan xudng 6 kim tra 1) Tinh xe sut fy duge ph phim (A) ») Gia st dn phdm ly ra la phd phim, nhidu kha ning san pdm 6 do may no sin xust ra? Giai, a) A, = "San phon Ify dupe cba may mgt nha dy A. P(A) = PUA)P(ATA,)+ PCAgIPCA| Aa) +PUAS)PCA Ag) PA) = 035 0,01 + 04 . 0.015 + 0,25 0,008 => POA) = 00118, POADPCALAD) _ 088.001 |, by Pa, 1a) S509 -o.a04s. ‘Twang ty PUA |) #06217 ; PUAg A) = 0789. (Ag | A) lon hit, ahi dng ph phim 86 18 oka my hai. nT, Ap Mass la $2. Cae cong the on nde aut “ 11.87. C6 2 may cing sin xust met log sin phen. TH chinh phim ‘ba may thd mhét 180.9; cba may thy hai th 0.85. Tw mot Kho ‘onda ¥ sin phim cia may thi nh (c6n la es may md ha) in phd a8 kid ta 4) Tinh xde sult ly duce ps phim (A) ') N6u sin phim idy ra la chinh phim. Tinh xée euat sin phim (85 do may tha ha sn xust ra, Gidi. a) A, » “Sin phim eb mty ii = 1, ‘AysAg Ha nhém dy 43 PIA) = PCA,)PIAIA,) + PCAg)PCA Ay) ‘ay rama 2 2 4, 2 =}a-09+2c-088 5 D) Nike sue fy dye chinh phan w 3 PA) =1-Pa)= 1 a PUagP@IAg) 3285 7 PO) 38 6 1.88, Mot cOng 1 bo hiém chia dan cu (48 tong be hiém) am 2 logh: fn ro; ir trung Binh ; iro a0. Theo théng Ké cho thy t 19 din gp rit ro trong 1 nam tuong dng vei che los trbn i 5% ; 15% ; 30% va trong todn bb dn cU'cé 20% I 0; 50% ro rung inh ; 30% iro cao, 4) Tinh 18 din gp 10 rtrong mst nam. ') N6u mgt nguti khong g& ero trong nam th xée sust nguas 146 huge lal tir la bao niu ? HD. Kem BT 1.54. BS. a) 175% ; 02808, PUI)2 Chuang 1 Kae mult cia mt bin of 1.88. Mt ahdn vién quing co nghién eu $8 tich xem ti vi (TV) cea nang nguth 26 gia din, TW 36 Neu thing KO anh ta két lun : 60% cde Gog chéng thich xom TV. Kh ching xem TV c6 40% cae ba vo olng tich xem TV ; ehéng khong thich xem TV 06 20% cdc ba wg thich xem TV. 1) Tinh 6 oc 68 vo tic xem TV. (A) Gil a vo ich xem TV, nh de sus ching cing tien xom TV. HD, H = "Ching thich xem TV" ;H,FE ba nhéen dy 3. DS, PLA) = 036; PULIAY = 3 1.60, Trong mot vung dn cu tnd Wa 5%, 26 mot nan dich Benn truyén nim véi 18 mée ella nam ld 6%, oba nd la 2%. 4) Tinh 1 mac dich enh cba dn ou wing a6 (A); 1) Chon nglu hin mot ngual dan ca vang th duge ngudl ime dion nn, tinh x sua nguéi mde deh bénh 66 la nam. HD. Hi = "NOt ngubi dupe chon oglu nhitn Wk gt; HH a mot ‘ahém dy di. DS, s) PA) = 38% ;) p= T105%, 1.61, Moti Kh tugng thy vn muin xem xét kd ning dy do thot ‘ito minn, Tus6 lu thing Ke ch a ing: xa sult dy bao 6 nding trong ngay KhBeg mua la O8 ; ed nding Wong ny ‘mua it 0.4 x80 sul mot ngdy 38 Khong mua i808. 4) Tinh xde sult du bdo ngly 88 06 ning (A) 'b) Tinh xde suat 6814 ngty Kndng mua, bt ing A 66 oy bdo la nigdy 06 nang. HD, H = "Ney khong mua"; H, Hla hoe dy 43 BS, 2) PA)= 0,68; b) PHA) = 0,76 1162. 662 hop bi Hop 1 06 8 bi 68, 3b vang Hop 2.06 1061 a8, 4 bi vang, $2. Cae cong det xt cust 43 1) Ly nghu nhién 4 gp We db Hy ng nntn ra 1B. Tinh xa sult lly ds9e bi 68 (A) ') Léy ngbu nhién 1 nop te 6 Iky ngdu ann fa 2. Tah xe suBt wong 2 iby racb 1 bid (B) ©) Ly nau nhign met bi ca nop 1 bd sang hop 2 sau 46 wy hop 2 dy v0.2, Tinh xc ut rong 2 bi 6y ra 66 bi 88, (C) 6 Ly ng nhién 2 bi ty hep + Bd sang hop 2, sau d6 iy 2 bit hp 2. Tinh xde su iy use 201 43 (0) ii. m) = “Lay dage hop i? 51 21,2 Hi Hy 1b mgt hom dy 3, PCH, 2 Al POF,JP(AIH,) PO)PCA sg) 18,10 29.0208 an’? 1 Voi ki bigu HY @ a, ta 06 Ob) = POH, PCB |, + PALL,)PCB |) £41 ObG) on eee ©) H = "bi tichop 1 3 qua hop 218 29H, HW nh dy a: PCED) Pic) = 1-P@) =0,9826,“4 Chung 1: Xe sult a ms bién 06 4) A; = “trong 2 bi Ur hop 2 Bd sang pp 2 of i bi ar, i= 0, 1,25 AgvAy,Ag 1a nhém dy di. PAD) = P(Ag)PCD 1 Ag) + PCA, PCD | Ay) + PCAg)PCD Ag) 3 Ch 83 ch, Of Ch S So, 83 Si, C8 Sie 5005. Ch Che Ch Che Ch Che 1.63. Mot tnding hang tai mt cia hang 06 12 sn ph&m g6m 9 sin phim loai A, 3 sin phdm loai 8. Ngudt ta ify ngdu nhién + ‘san phém idm mBu (khéng bén). Sau 66 e6 mot khAch 161 ‘mua 1 trong 11 sin phim obn lal, Tinh xde sual khéch mua ‘duge sin phém loai A. *Siin phim 1am mv 1a Losi AY; 1H, 1a nhém dy a BS. 0,76. 1.64, Mot hép cd 15 qua béng ban, trong d6 ¢6 9 quad cbn mol va 6 ‘qui a8 si: dyng. Lin du tidn ngudi te ify 3 trong 15 qua 68 ‘9 yng, sau d6 rd ai hop. Ln thd 2 la ify ngiu anién 3 qua 10 15 qua nay. “Tinh xe sult ong 8 qu ly in thd hal ob qu dt dung. (A) HD. Tinh PCR) qua ahém dy 4’, ‘A; = “Trong 3 gud ldy Id 1 66 qua a sit dg’ i= 0,1, 2,3. HD. 8g 89, Penne eae es ray) hs Pia) = 1- PCR) = 0.9107 41.65. Hop 1 06 10 qui cu db, 5 qua cfu vang ; hop 2 c6 7 qué cfu 48, 9 qud céu ving. Ta mBi hop iby ngdu nnién mot qui cfu, fal do lay ngdu nhidn 1 qua ts 2 qua edu nay. Tin xdc sult ‘qua edu dy sau 18 qul edu vag (A). $2. Ce cong tie inh xt wt 4s Gili. A, « “Qui clu ay trhap 1 mau wang” By = "Qui cu yt hgp 2 mau ving” 6, = “Trong 2 qu eu ly rao qu vane’ 4 20, 1,2, 18 ahém dy a. PIC) = PHB) = PRP) = 2; PC) = Pasa) = 2; 6 iv POG) = Pea Bi +i) + PAB) + PB) «38 PLA) = P(Cg)PCAIC,) + POC) PCA IC,)+ PIC, )PLAIC,) 1.08, Ng2 dang suy nghnéa thi dai hp Kh A hay kh B. Thoo euy ‘gh eba minh, ge thy xdc sust 65 dal hoe & Kn6 A Ia kn 818 2. Now quySt dian da tén vide tung mot dng xe Gid si Nga db da hoe, th Kha nang Nga 68 dai noo kn 8 la baosnniey ? LHD, S » “Mgt ap sud hign khi tung dng xs" Sh 5 la nhém diy 43 DS. 57.14%. 11.07. TH1¢ sin pdm io | do mot may sin xu ra la 80% ; edn a8 loal it. Sn phd eta may en wut ra duce mot tram kid tra ty dng phn lol. Tuy nhién khi ning nhan Biét dung mot sin phim loai | va mat ean phd loai tcl trem twang Ung te 90%, 95%. £2) Tinh xd eust mot sin phim cba may duge tram phan lai (A) 1) Tinh xac sudt mot sin phém cia may duge tam phan lost kenong dung voi bn ehét cane (8)e hong 1 fe matt ein ma bi eb 6) Nu mét sin pm duge phan ogi aA ti Kna nang ne Khng ‘ing i bap nbigu ? O81 Ao Sp any yy ah cy 8 DA)= FAIA) = AQP A) 2, 09+02.0082078 wig) 2 PALBIA) =I 4) “os.01+02. 008-00 HApPCAI Ay) Pea IPIA ALD soo3s7 11.68, Mét hép co 7 sén phim, hon todn Khéng bit chétlugng cba ‘ote sin phd trong nop nay. Moi gl Bl v6 &6 phé pdm c6 trong hop la dng RMA ning. Lay ngdu nhién khéng hoa 1 hope: edn ohm 36 kidm rath thy o8 2 phé phém. 4) 86 phé phim nhidu kha nang nh rong cde edn phém con al ‘a bao shibu? 1b) Néu iy tern 1 sn phim nda 1 hop thi Kh nang ley duo pn pnd & bao niu ? ) Plaga) Gia, 1 A, = “Hop 0b Epi", PCA, sy 9 sin phim due 2 ph phmn™ PLA) dupe inh theo cOng thie xde sult Aly di wei PIAIA\)=0, FO, Tinh PALA) theo 8 Khi ning : 2 trong 3 lin Idy duge phe phi, 1 Mn Ify duge ehinh phim. Xde auft mbi lin bing 218.1 768 2 PALA) <3. $2. Che cong tae tit xe sus ar Tamme we PAL Ag)=3 3.2.4.2 22 PALA =3 £3808 AIAg) 5 PALA) =0 > Pays SRAyPAIA) = y a hea cg the Bayes PAJPIALA,) ot POA, 1a) = ARIA? A) = Ply A) lou mht (do PALA) ln abit) Véy at phi phim ‘nhidu khd nang mbit trong cdc sin phi cba la a 8, 1) B = My thton 1 dn phim 1 phé phéin™ + PCABIA,)=0,i=0, 1,2; PABIA;)=0 PAB Ag) pas eee seca 32 Tag ty PABA,) = 3:5 PCABIAs)=2; PAB Ac) + PAB)= & PAB) Emavreapiay 3 ‘Xée sudit Mdy thém 1 sin phim nda duye phé phé roa) BAR. 18 Mt np 240s sin ng hg cd ong ia chung. Mol gid tit v6 66 phé phim c6 trong nop la cing kh rntng. Lay ng niin kBng hot Iai 3 an pig WW hop odMang Ret te tei sade tat duge @ ph phim, Ly tip mot sin phd nia 8 ng th xe sult iy auge ph phim bo alu? Bs.08. 1.70. Met ngp 6 10 chin ph vl ph phim King 8 chit ang fo ind. Mot khdch Ang tt nghu nen 1 sin pm nop 6 ‘am tea ge enn phd, vi vey khéch hang dy anh $8 mua hop sin pdm néu at ip nglu niin 1 sin phm nda nop {a chin pi, Th xe aust nen hang mua hop ain prém Bit rng mo! g& tut v6 26 chnn pdm 06 tong NoD au ng end ng 2 ei 1.71. Mgt nop €® 18 an phim wong 46 ob 10 sdn phim oa va tli phim log. Khach hang thd mnt mua ng aida 2 sin phim. Sau do knéch hang thd 2 mua nah nhén 2 sin phém. TT nae audt wong 66 sn phdmngudl thd 2 mua ob 1 sin phim oat. (4) ia LHD. Lam twong ty bai 1.68 ; BS. Ay = “Trong 2 in phim ngs thi nh mus 6 sn pin lg I", i202 PUA PCAG)PIA |Ap)+ PCA,)PCAIA,)+P(A3)PCA Ag) § 103 108 94 Ch “Ge Ch Ch hy Che Ch 1.72, C62 lost nop sin phém 6 trong kno knéng phn bigt duce. Loal his nh 6 10 nop, mBi nop 667 inh pm, 3 ph phém. Los thu hai ed 15.n9p, mB! nop £6 8 enh phém, 4 ph ph. 1) Ly ng nhién 1 hop ty Kho, rt nop gy ng ni ra 2 sin ‘him, Tinh xd su tong 2 sn phém ify rac chin pgm (A) 1) NEu tong 2 sin phfm ify rae chin pdm, oh xe sual ‘ete inn phim do thuGe ede nOp loa hal 0.266. $2. Ce ong hdc toh xe gut “ Gish) A, = “Hp ly rate loa i= 12 10 16 PUA) =22; plage 36 a5! PAD“ 25 PUR) = POA,)P(A A) PCAg PCR Ay) PAA) = 1-PG) = 09188, 1b) Ta eb PLAIAg)= PRI Ay) = 12 de atcha tim P(Ag)PU PH Pity A= PADPAIAD _ 26°i2 95007 ‘An A) PAD oaiss “5 1.78. MOt xi nghidp sin aust mot lai sin phim. 1118 ph6 phim cba Xi nghigp 1a 5%. Mét sén phd ola xi nghigp sn xuft ra duce ‘qua 2 tram kibm tra dc . am 1 : x6c sudt nnn bist ding 1 chinh phim la 90%, hn Didt sai mot ps phd 1a 3%. 6 tram 2 : xae sult nn biét ing 1 chinh phim 18 95% va hn i6t ing 1 phé phém la 96%, Met ein pnd duge cua ra thi trang nu qua hal trem kiém ‘1a col chinh ph. Tinh xée aust 2) Mot ph phim, duge da ra hi rang (A), 1b) Mot cin phd b tol trong qu tia kid a (8) ©) Mét sin phdm auge chon ag nhién trong 86 cde sin phdém ‘hua kidm traci xi nghigp 98 due va rath ruong (C) 1) Mol sin phdm cba xi nghip aug da rath trudng la mot hs pdm (0) sate dentro 010 +Ai cu ois 12) A, = °Phl ph duge team i coi Ia chink phi” Ae Apa SPO) = PAA) 908000 Chih inde em cl hp hi. 5+ PAB) = P(B,)+P(B)PCB,) (6c lap » = 0,1 +09 0,05 = 0,48, ) = *Séan phim cia xi nghip Ia chinh phim” 1H, HI A ahom ay a3 Pic) = PAH) PCIE + PADPICI = 0.95 (1 ~ PXB)) + 005 PLA) = 0.81228, PaPCI A BC) 4.74. Tong mat thing, mot nguet Go bn ang & 3 nc ua Bch nb rina. Xée sult ban duge hang 8 mBi nl tang dng Ik 02 : 0.3; 4. Bit rng mBi not nguel &6 dn bin hang § ngay chung che6 2 ngay ban duge hang. 4) Tinh xde sult nguei a8 bn Bdge hang trong mt hang. (A) 1) NBu ngubi 46 ban duge hang trong mét thang thi xée sut ‘gut db ban duc hang & nd thd nt a bao nhieu ? Gilt, a) A, = “Ngo 6 An bda hang 8 nai", = 1, 2.9 PD) = PAEIC)= 0.00007. 1 POade ds Ay-Apsg la nhom day di Méi nai nguti dé dn bén hang t9o thank mot diy 6 phép chi Beraol. ‘Tab: PRAIA) =CE . 0280) $2. Ce cbng tie ohne sult st ‘Tuomg uy PCA Ag) = 0.9087; PCA} As) = 0.2456 PIA) = POAVIPCAIA,) + PCAQ)P(A Ag) P(AQ)PCA As) 1 Josss+!.os0 «4. oats «eam 70,14) PAVIA oan, may 4 tam ky 6 2 ty chun cg an nt mt a sn i, Xi sto mB npn oe hn ot es Sy ayn 6 [phé phim tuong ng la 0,04 ; 0,03. San phém cia mbi day. yen uve ging ip (np 10 win ph). Ba yal ny enone ng Cay cruyen ha Ly ag rst mot pn pin mt may su es ie ‘anv. Tm abe a Pp abn pm bc 6p). Gi A, = “ps pin in yaya, A Ap tn dy Tab: P(A) PURI Ay) = Cf . 0,044 -0,08)° «0,648 PRI Ay) 0.7876 PAR) = POA )PCR 1A)+ PCAg)PCR Ay = PU) = 1-P@)-0811 C. BAITAP TONG HOP CHUONG 1 1.76. Mot nguét din eta hang cign 6 mua 1 hop béng dbn. Anh tay gu nién 2 bong ti nop bing dn a kiém ra nu 6 bong hing th kndng mua hop beng dén. Tinh xc sult ngutt 48 mua Nop bing dan. Bist hop bing din ob 10 BEng trong db c8 3 beng Nn 1.77. Hop c6 4 bi 8, 8 bi ving, 2 bi xanh, Ly nou nhibnra'2 bi Tinh xe suited 3 bi du cing mau,8 (Chuong Kae ult cia mt bién <6 1.78. Mt ngudl éu tu vio 3 lol 6 phi6u A, B,C. Xée sust trong thi gan T ci of phigu ny ting gait 0.6; 0,7 ; 08. Tm xe sufi wong th gan T 9) 066 phidu ting ga ) 66 1 66 phi6u ting gi 10) Gid si 06 2 08 phiéu knéng ting gf. Tim xe sult B Kinong tang i Bit ring cfc o6 phiéu A,B, C hoat dong 0c lap. 41.79. Xée sust bn tng dich mBi Kin eda mt x9 thd I 0,8. Xa thd bn Sdn doe fp. Tinh xa sudt 8) C& 5 lin du wang ich 1b) 8 dn a tring ach, 2 dn ©) C63 in tng dich 6). 66 tnt mot tng atch, 1.80, Hop eé 4 bi 43, 9 bi xanh, 5 bi ving. Lfy nglu nhién khtng hai iat lin uot tng bi cho dn ky dude bia th ding 2) Tinn xe ust vig iy bl dng 6 Mn ha 4 b) Gi a vide iy dg & dn tha 4 1) Tinh xe aut trong 06 bi fy ra c6 2 bi vag. 2) Tinh xe sult tong 96 bi ky ra. 2 bi cng mau, 2) Tinh xe sust trong ede bi ldy ra kong e6 bi xan “1.81. TH ph pdr ea mgt logl san ph i 0,1. 88 dim bio ehét ang agudt ta kiém tra sin phim tude Ki ua rath) trvdng, “Tist bi idm tra ty ng o6 49 chinh xc la 05% dé ve chin pdm va 98% d6i v6l phé phdm. Sin phim dige dua ra th ‘nung néu de thi bj kim tra cola chin ph, 4) Tian tig sin pdm duge va rath) trutng. ) Vol mat sin phém duge dua ra ty) mung th kha nang nb 18 ‘ph phdm ia bao nhieu ? 1 Mut $2. Cte cong the toh abe ust sa ©) Tinh 118 dn phim duge kim tra Bal tb knBng ding voi bin cnét cba n6, 1) MBt nguei mus 5 sin phim duge due ta th tung. Tinh xe sult trong 5 ain pdm nay 06 2 ph pdm, 1.82, 06 tht man hoo, mai hoe sinh phat noe 90 cau. BE th gém 5 cau trong 30 cau 6 cho, Mgt Rec sinh eh! thube 20 ctu “Tinh xd subt mgt hoe sinh dy thi 8) lam duge tnt t cau ) 98 dB, BBY ring hoe sin 88 48 néu td ti duce Mt nhl 9 cA, 11.83. Met cng tin tuyén 2 ahd vibn. C8 6 nguB np dan tong 36 6 44n va 2 nam. Kha ning duge ty cam ngudi nn nha, 4) Tinh wie aust a6 2 00 duce tuyén bist ring 6H nat nd age tuyén. ) Old sit Hoa la met trong 4 nd, Tinh xe sult a8 Hoe dug tuyén bist ring 48 c6 nd ace tuyén. 1.86. C6 @xa thd mi nud bin 6 vién dan v8o mot cA bia, més én 1 win, Xe suft bin tring bia méi Hin eda ede xa thi nay tuong ong a 06 ; 0,7; 0.8. 8) Tinh xéc sut xa thd thd nt bn tring 2 wer, ») Gif sU bi b tring dan. Tinh xd su bia bring dam I8 eo a thd tha nhs fn tring. 1.88, Trén bing quiing co nguot ta lp 2 ne tndng bong den. Hs ting | gm 2 béng mi nb ip. HE théing Il gm 2 béng mc song song. Kh& ning bj hing olla 1 béng den sau 6 gi 16 15%; ed bing dé hing dtc ap. 4. Tim xe aust 8) HO tng | nang, 1) Hg thing It nbng. 2. Trong thet6 kh rng 2 he théng héng dng tho I 1.8%, Tinh xe eu