Current Biology
Dispatches
Ecology: The Tropical Deforestation Debt
Ken Norris
Institute of Zoology, Zoological Society of London, Regent’s Park, London, NW1 4RY, UK
Correspondence: ken.norris@ioz.ac.uk
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.cub.2016.06.039
Tropical deforestation is a significant cause of global carbon emissions and biodiversity loss. A new study
shows that deforestation today leaves a carbon and biodiversity debt to be paid over subsequent years.
This has potentially profound implications for forest conservation.
Between 2000 and 2012, over 1 million
square kilometres of the World’s tropical
forests were cleared [1], an area roughly
the size of Egypt. This has major
implications for global carbon emissions
and biodiversity loss. Estimates suggest
that deforestation accounts for 5–20% of
global carbon emissions annually [2–4],
second only to the combustion of fossil
fuels. Tropical forests are also hotspots of
terrestrial biodiversity (Figure 1), and
deforestation is a major driver of species
extinctions [5,6]. However, the impacts
of deforestation do not occur
instantaneously [7,8]. A new study by
Isabel Rosa and colleagues [9] in this
issue of Current Biology shows that
deforestation today causes significant
carbon emissions and biodiversity losses
that occur over future years — in other
words, today’s deforestation creates
carbon and biodiversity debts. How large
are these debts, and what implications do
they have for the conservation of tropical
forests?
When an area of forest is cleared,
vegetation of any economic value is often
removed (mainly timber) and converted
into various products, such as building
materials or furniture. Carbon emissions
associated with this vegetation will occur
through the associated production
processes, and ultimately when the forest
products decay. The highly degraded
vegetation (termed ‘slash’) remaining
in situ also emits carbon but how quickly it
does so depends on the way land is used
after the forest has been cleared. If the
slash decays naturally, emissions occur
relatively slowly, but quickly if it is burned.
The net effect of these processes is that a
significant portion of carbon emissions
from a deforestation event are delayed in
time, which means that the carbon
emissions occurring today represent, in
part, a legacy of past deforestation [8].
R770 Current Biology 26, R756–R777, August 22, 2016 ª 2016 Elsevier Ltd.
At a landscape scale, deforestation
often creates a mosaic of forest
fragments within a matrix of non-forest
habitats, such as farmland (Figure 1). As
deforestation proceeds, these fragments
become increasingly isolated and
degraded. Animal species in these
landscapes vary in their susceptibility to
these habitat changes — forest
specialists, species with small ranges and
those with poor ability to disperse through
non-forest habitats are particularly
vulnerable, experiencing population
declines and local extinction [10–12]. As
species are often linked through
ecological processes, such as
competition and predation, population
declines of individual species have wider
knock-on effects for animal and plant
communities. Deforestation not only
causes species losses but restructures
entire communities [13]. Population
declines and community re-structuring
also take time, so a deforestation event
today can effectively ‘commit’ species to
extinction in future years and it may take
several years for communities to reach a
new equilibrium.
The new paper by Rosa et al. [9]
estimates for the first time these
time-delayed carbon emissions and
biodiversity losses associated with
tropical deforestation. To estimate carbon
emissions, the authors first re-
constructed historical patterns of
deforestation back to 1950. To do this,
they used a spatially explicit model, which
takes advantage of the fact that the
spatial pattern of deforestation is
predictable. For example, deforestation
is more likely in a given area if that area is
accessible (e.g. close to a road or river), or
has a relatively high human population
density. Next, they combined their
historical deforestation maps with a
global map of the amount of carbon
associated with terrestrial vegetation.
This allowed the authors to move through
time from 1950 to recent years and
estimate the amount of carbon available
to be emitted as areas were deforested.
Lastly, they used a ‘carbon book-keeping’
model to estimate how this available
carbon was actually emitted [2,8]. This
model assumes that 20% of the available
carbon is emitted immediately, with the
remaining 80% being emitted through
time at different rates depending on
whether the carbon comes from slash
decaying in situ (70%), forest products
(8%) or elemental carbon (2%).
To estimate biodiversity losses the
authors focused on mammals, birds and
amphibians, because there are coarse-
grained global datasets on the spatial
distribution of species in these taxa
[14,15]. They first needed to estimate the
number of species potentially ‘at risk’
from deforestation, which they did by
counting the number of forest specialist
species in each part of their range that
overlapped with the historical forest cover
maps. Next, they estimated species
losses following deforestation using
modified species–area relationships.
Typically, these relationships describe
how the number of species changes in
relation to the area of habitat (e.g. forest).
They can thus be used to estimate the
number of species likely to be lost as
habitat area is reduced [5]. The authors
used a modified relationship that includes
an additional parameter, k, that estimates
the rate at which species are lost over
time as forest area is reduced. The
parameter k is clearly critical for
estimating a biodiversity debt, and was
derived from a previous study based on
biodiversity data from the Brazilian
Amazon [16].
The main findings of Rosa et al. [9]
are striking. Imagine for a moment that
Current Biology
Dispatches
deforestation had completely halted in
2010. The time-delays would mean there
is a debt of at least 8.5 Pg of carbon
remaining to be emitted, which is
equivalent to the emissions associated
with five to ten years of global
deforestation. The authors estimate a
species extinction debt of over 140
mammal, bird and amphibian species,
which is substantial when compared with
historical losses — 124 vertebrate
species are known to have gone extinct
since 1900 . Not surprisingly, most of the
carbon and biodiversity debts occur in the
Amazon and Southeast Asia where
historically deforestation has been
greatest. The Congo Basin, by
comparison, only accounts for 9–14% of
carbon emissions over time, and for only
about 5% of species losses. If
deforestation rates increase in the future
in this region, these represent important
baseline estimates against which
changes in emissions and biodiversity
losses can be measured. Delayed effects
tend to accumulate over time, such that
the species losses we observe today are
largely the result of historical
deforestation events [9].
Inevitably, the analyses of Rosa et al. [9]
contain uncertainties. While uncertainties
relating to model parameters were
explored in the paper, significant
uncertainties in the underlying ecological
processes remain. For example, the
carbon book-keeping model used to
estimate emissions over time makes very
simple assumptions about land-use
change associated with a deforestation
event. Clearly, the time profile of carbon
emissions could vary quite substantially
depending on how land use actually
changes — emissions will be rapid if
forest is cleared by burning, but slow if the
slash remains in situ for an extended
period [8]. It would be valuable to improve
our understanding of the relationships
between land-use change and carbon
emissions over time, not least because it
would help us quantify how sensitive
global estimates of carbon emissions
are to assumptions about land-use
change.
Another uncertainty concerns the
parameter k, an estimate of the rate at
which species are lost over time [16] used
by Rosa et al. [9]. We currently know very
little about how k might vary between
taxonomic groups, species assemblages
Figure 1. Tropical forest biodiversity and deforestation.
Left: a forest fragment in Borneo resulting from clearance for oil palm. Photo: Chi’en C. Lee. Right:
Wallace’s flying frog from Borneo. Photo: Ryan Gray.
or geographical areas, or how it might be
affected by land-use change. It seems
quite likely that k is sensitive to the
distribution of ecological traits (e.g.
trophic level, dispersal ability, life history)
among the constituent species in an area
[11,17]. It also seems likely that k reflects
to some extent the type of land-use
change following deforestation — species
losses might be less rapid if, for example,
deforestation is followed by a forest
plantation rather than an urban area.
A better understanding of these patterns
would help us explore the sensitivity of
regional and global estimates of species
losses to the key underlying ecological
processes involved.
What are the implications for the
reduction of carbon emissions and
biodiversity conservation? Even if
tropical deforestation could be
completely halted, Rosa et al. [9] show
that significant carbon emissions and
species losses would still occur. This
means that without additional measures,
national and international emissions
reduction and biodiversity conservation
targets are unlikely to be met. Policies
aimed at protecting forests need,
therefore, to be coupled with policies
aimed at reducing the carbon and
biodiversity debts. Almost inevitably this
will mean changing our mindset from
one in which we aim to reduce the
deforestation rate to one in which we
aim to restore tropical forests. This can
only happen if land-use policymakers
stop working solely in their policy
areas in favour of a more integrated
approach [18]. Such a change is long
overdue.
Current Biology 26, R756–R777, August 22, 2016 R771
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Microglia: Senescence Impairs Clearance of Myelin
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Peter Thériault and Serge Rivest*
Neuroscience Laboratory, CHU de Québec Research Center and Department of Molecular Medicine, Faculty of Medicine, Laval University,
2705 Laurier boul., Québec City, QC G1V 4G2, Canada
*Correspondence: Serge.Rivest@crchudequebec.ulaval.ca
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.cub.2016.06.066
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Current Biology
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the maintenance of the brain’s
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