Brosiu Diana 11083921 MSC BA

Master Thesis
#Wanderlust: Measuring the Social Media Factors that Influence

Tourism
University of Amsterdam
Faculty of Economics and Business
MSc. In Business Administration – Marketing Track
Under supervision of: dr. Jonne Y. Guyt
Student: Diana Brosiu
Student number: 11083921
Date: 24th of June 2016

Statement of Originality
This document is written by Student Diana Broşiu who declares to take full responsibility for the
contents of this document.
I declare that the text and the work presented in this document is original and that no sources
other than those mentioned in the text and its references have been used in creating it.
The Faculty of Economics and Business is responsible solely for the supervision of completion
of the work, not for the contents.
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Acknowledgement
By finalizing the thesis, I have reached the final step in achieving my master’s degree in
Business Administration (Marketing Track) at the University of Amsterdam. The writing process
of the thesis was very challenging, but rewarding at the same time. My interest in the topic was
sparked by the growing importance social media has on our daily lives (including politics and
economics) combined with my love for the travel industry. The specific focus of researching
what are the most influential information sources for niche versus popular destinations managed
to increase my curiosity for this field and continue my learning process.
I would like to take the opportunity to thank my supervisor dr. Jonne Y. Guyt for his
constant support, feedback and social media expertise that guided me through the writing
process. Furthermore, I would like to thank my family and friends for their endless
encouragements and for having patience and faith in me.
I hope you will all enjoy reading this thesis and become interested in this important
research field that has numerous practical implications.
Kind regards,
Diana Broşiu
24th June 2016
University of Amsterdam, The Netherlands
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Abstract
Social media is becoming increasingly popular and increasingly influential consequently.
Its influence spheres include economics, politics, communication patterns, dating information
research and even stress levels. Tourism is no exception to this. Given the time people spend on
social media, it has become an effective communication channel for marketers for branding, but
also crisis management since it enables them to directly communicate with consumers.
The research tried to analyze what are the information sources most influential for
travelers and how does their effect vary for niche versus popular destinations. In order to achieve
this, a literature review was used to determine the key influence factors. Therefore, National
Tourism Organizations and Travel Guides are the factors chosen. Afterwards, a regression
analysis was done, that featured time lag effects (they were added due to the booking pattern of
travelers). The results suggest that National Tourism Organizations are more effective for
popular, while Travel Guides are better for niche destinations. For the analysis, six different
countries were studied and the data collected reflected actual visitors number and the social
media activity for the 2014 – 2015 period on a monthly basis
The author discusses further research directions and the limitations of the study at the end
of the paper, together with managerial implications.
Keywords: tourism marketing, social media, Instagram, destination marketing, country of origin,
information sources, expert publications, travel guides, national tourism organizations, time lag
effects, regression analysis
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Table of Contents
Statement of Originality.................................................................................................................. 2
Acknowledgement .......................................................................................................................... 3
Abstract ........................................................................................................................................... 4
Table of Contents ............................................................................................................................ 5
Table of Figures and Tables ............................................................................................................ 7
1. Introduction ............................................................................................................................. 8
Literature Review.......................................................................................................................... 11
2.1 Tourism Marketing ......................................................................................................... 11
2.2 Social Media ................................................................................................................... 13
2.3 Destination Marketing Organizations use of Social Media ........................................... 15
Destination Branding ............................................................................................................ 16
2.4 Travel Guides ................................................................................................................. 20
2.5 User-Generated Content ................................................................................................. 23
2.6 Long Tail Effect ............................................................................................................. 25
2.7 Literature gap and Research Question ........................................................................... 26
2.8 Contributions .................................................................................................................. 28
3. Research Design and Methodology ...................................................................................... 30
3.1 Sample ............................................................................................................................ 30

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3.2 Research design .............................................................................................................. 31
3.3 Results and Analysis ...................................................................................................... 36
4. Discussion ............................................................................................................................. 42
5. Limitations and further research ........................................................................................... 44
6. Managerial implications........................................................................................................ 46
7. Conclusion ............................................................................................................................ 47
Bibliography ................................................................................................................................. 51
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Table of Figures and Tables
Figure 1: Conceptual Framework ................................................................................................. 10
Figure 2: Branding strategy for a destination ............................................................................... 19
Figure 3: Overview of analyzed data – Singapore ........................................................................ 35
Figure 4: Overview of analyzed data – Canada ............................................................................ 35
Figure 5: Overview of analyzed data - Germany .......................................................................... 35
Figure 6: Overview of analyzed data - Ireland ............................................................................. 35
Figure 7: Overview of analyzed data - Serbia .............................................................................. 36
Figure 8: Overview of analyzed data - Croatia ............................................................................. 36
Table 1: Overview of information sources per each country ........................................................ 32
Table 2: Overview of Instagram information sources .................................................................. 33
Table 3: Regression Analysis - No Lag ........................................................................................ 38
Table 4: Regression Analysis - One Month Lag ........................................................................... 38
Table 5: Regression Analysis - Two-Month Lag .......................................................................... 39
Table 6: Regression Analysis - Three-Month Lag ........................................................................ 39
Table 7: Regression Analysis - Four-Month Lag ......................................................................... 40
Table 8: Regression Analysis - Five-Month Lag .......................................................................... 40
Table 9: Regression Analysis - Six-Month Lag ............................................................................ 40
Table 10: Overview of hypotheses ............................................................................................... 45
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1. Introduction
In recent years, tourism has recovered from the slowdown caused by the 2008 recession
and other macro events (epidemics) and continued its growing trend. In the last 60 years,
“tourism has experienced continued expansion and diversification, to become one of the largest
and fastest-growing economic sectors in the world” while “many new destinations have emerged
in addition to the traditional favorites of Europe and North America”, as shown in a report by
United Nations World Tourism Organization (UNWTO, 2015).
It is already known that the new generation – Millennials or Gen Y – has a different
spending pattern than their predecessors (Goldman Sachs, 2015). For example, they prefer to
have access to goods, rather than to own them, “prioritizing access over ownership”, thus having
resources available for other purposes. In terms of expenditures, they prefer to invest in
experiences such as traveling, “things that cannot be taken away from them” (Suddath, 2015).
At the same time, being a generation that has grown up with access to internet, they are
obviously more prone to use the web to research before making a purchasing decision. They rely
more on social media (34% vs. 16% of previous generations) (Goldman Sachs, 2015) and blogs
(33% rely on blogs vs. 3% on TV) (Schwabel, 2015). Moreover, they also prefer to purchase
online as shown by their previous behavior: in 2013 and 2014 over 90% of millennials have
made an online purchase (Goldman Sachs, 2015). Thus, it is safe to say that tourism will
continue gaining importance.
Currently, the literature regarding the impact of social media on tourism is in incipient
phase, therefore there are numerous gaps in the literature regarding this topic (Zeng & Gerritsen,
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2014). One of the most important is a classification regarding the power of influence of various
social media factors on the purchasing decision of travelers. Usually, papers published are
focusing on only one factor, such as destination marketing organization use of social media
(Hays, Page, & Buhalis, 2013) or user generated content (Akehurst, 2009). Of course, the
relationship between the social media and tourism can be mediated by different factors such as
the type of destination (whether it is a popular destination or a more niche one). Therefore, the
proposed research question for this paper is:
How is the tourists’ purchase decision influenced by social media factors (content
generated by destination marketing organizations, and travel sites) and how do these effects
compare between niche and popular destinations?
The present study will make a classification of the most important social media factors
based on their power of influence over the travelers’ purchase decision. At the same time, it will
offer a better understanding of the role of expert publications (such as travel guides) in today’s
interconnected world. In order to achieve this, a social media network research will be
conducted. The research will have a quantitative approach. Social media data will be collected
for different countries across a two-year period on a monthly basis in order to enable for a
longitudinal comparison to be made across different type of destinations (niche versus popular
destinations).
The conceptual framework on which for this research can be observed in Figure 1 at the
end of this chapter. It is easily visible from it what the goal of the current paper is. The
independent variables are represented by the content produced by National Tourism
Organizations and Travel Guides. The author examines what is the effect of this factor on actual
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visiting behavior moderated by the level of the destination’s popularity. The hypotheses are
further explained in the Literature Review chapter.
In conclusion, a deeper understanding of the influence social media has over tourism
could help marketers better promote and address the needs of their consumers. This paper aims at
increasing the understanding of this topic and generating directions for further research. Most
importantly, the classification of social media factors achieved can be tested in subsequent
studies to generalize to other industries.
In order to achieve these contributions, the research proposal is divided in two important
parts. First, the social media and tourism literature will be reviewed. Secondly, the proposed
research design will be described together with the research schedule. The paper will of course
end by detailing the limitations and possible further research directions and by offering a
conclusion to the analysis.
H1
National Tourism Organization
Number of Visitors
H2
Travel Guides
H3a H3b
Destination’s level of popularity
Figure 1: Conceptual Framework
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Note: There are many other factors (control variables i.e. macro-trends or global events)
which also impact travelers’ buying behavior. However, within the scope of our study the author
does not capture them in our analysis and solely focus on social media.
2. Literature Review
2.1 Tourism Marketing
The author decided to focus her research on the tourism industry since it is one of the
most dynamic and one of the fastest to recover after an economic crisis such as the one the world
economy faced in 2008 (Dekimpe, Peers, & van Heerde, 2016). Also, given the purchase
behavior of the new generations (millennials) that value experiences over products and spend
more time on internet, but especially on social media, being also more easily influenced by it
(Goldman Sachs, 2015; Suddath, 2015; Schwabel, 2015), it is safe to say that tourism is a very
interesting industry to study in the next couple of years since it will probably have a significant
growth overall in the following period. This trend was already visible in 2014 as a report by
UNTWO (2015) perfectly illustrates.
Travelers are influenced by a series of factors when they are evaluating a particular
destination, such as destination attractiveness as introduced by Ritche & Zins (1978). Marketers’
goal is to persuade tourists to choose their products or services while at the same time assuring a
high level of tourist satisfaction (meaning there should not be a discrepancy between the
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expectations and the reality) as defined by Pizam, Neumann, and Reichel (1978). Therefore, it is
necessary for marketers to better understand the differences between the experiences vistirors
have or look for, in order to better satisfy their needs, as emphasized by Taylor (1980).
Given the turbulent times that everyone is living in, where terrorist attacks are becoming
increasingly frequent and there is political unrest in numerous countries (Brexit is the perfect
illustration of this), marketers must try to address travelers’ concerns and reassure them that they
are safe while visiting. This is necessary so that people will feel secure enough to make the
holiday booking, since people tend to be risk-averse as demonstrated by Kahneman & Tversky
(1979). Egypt was also affected by a political crisis that has decreased the number of visitors.
Avraham (2016) has analyzed in depth the strategies employed by the Egyptian officials to
address this issue. The approach taken in the paper is of “multi-step model for altering place
image” as descriebed by Avraham and Ketter (2008). Thus, the Egyptian marketers have taken a
number of measures to change the country’s image and they can be grouped in the following
categories: source (cooperating and developing PR or media relations; stoping and/or addresing
negative media; finding alternatives for traditional media and replacing it), message (ignoring the
crisis; reducing or limiting the scale of the crisis; positive brand associations; hosting special
events; geographic dissaciation) and audience (emphasizing common traits with audience;
adressing new market niches).
Even from the approach taken by the Egyptian marketers, the importance of social media
starts to become visible as it can have a central role in the source category of possible
approaches. Therefore, the author finds it useful for marketers to include also social media in the
marketing strategies that they employ, especially given the growing importance of the channel
(Pew Research Center, 2015). Furthermore, the need for a better understanding of how tourism
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marketing being changed by societal changes such as the rise in popularity of social media are
emphasized also by Dolnicar and Ring (2014). Thus, they encourage researches to deep dive into
the matter. In this affirmation they are not alone, since also Zeng & Gerritsen (2014) and Leung,
et al., (2013) point our that further research in this area is needed.
2.2 Social Media
Social Media (SM) is one of the mega-trends that have changed the way people interact
in today’s society. Web 2.0 has empowered consumers and has transformed the traditional
marketing communication into a dialogue, by facilitating a communication channel between the
brand managers and the users of social media networks (one-to-many communication) (Xiang &
Gretzel, 2010). Now users have the possibility to self-select the content and advertising shown to
them, which further complicates the challenges marketers are facing (Holt, 2016). Formally, SM
can be defined as “a group of Internet-based applications that build on the ideological and
technological foundations of Web 2.0 and that allow the creation and exchange of User
Generated Content” (Kaplan & Haenlein, 2010).
Tourism is defined by the United Nations World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) as the
“the activities of persons traveling to and staying in places outside their usual environment for
not more than one consecutive year for leisure, business and other purposes” (UNWTO, 1995).
As recent years have demonstrated, tourism is easily impacted by macro trends. It has been
slowed down by negative events such as the world recession in 2008 (UNWTO, 2013) or the
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outbreak of epidemics (H1N1 for example, or more recently the Zika virus) (UNWTO, 2009;
Dekimpe, Peers, & van Heerde, 2016).
Social Media impacts almost all aspects of our life and tourism is not an exception. A
research found that of the consumers who used social media to research travel plans, only 48%
stuck with their original plans and 52% of Facebook users were inspired by their friends’ photos
to make their holiday choice and plans (Bennett, 2012). Despite of its importance, the literature
for social media in tourism is currently still in its incipient phase, but it is continuingly gaining
more attention in the recent period, as it is clearly visible from the literature review done by
Leung, et al., (2013).
A simplified model of decision making process that any consumer goes through in order
to make a certain purchase includes the following stages: problem recognition, search, purchase
and post-purchase (Neslin, et al., 2006). Consumers cannot yet purchase travel packages directly
from social media sites, but there are different methods by which social network platforms
influence the way customers make the purchase decision for our travels, across all the decision
stages, thus influencing the way they research, read and trust pieces of information (Sigala,
Christou, & Gretzel, 2012; Xiang & Gretzel, 2010). At the same time, the users are
collaboratively producing content regarding various destinations. In this context, social media
forces marketers to reevaluate the strategies and tactics by which they address the needs of
consumers, by challenging the current view on customer service and marketing/promotional
processes. (Zeng & Gerritsen, 2014).
The main reasons consumers choose to use social media for organizing and taking
vacations are the perceived benefits (social, functional and psychological and hedonic). This
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relationship is moderated by a series of factors that can act as incentives for SM adoption and
usage. Those factors include trust on the users’ information exchanged and written online;
availability of the technology; the environment; altruism and individual predisposition (Parra-
Lopez et al, 2011).
Instagram is one at of the latest social media platforms to appear. It was launched on the
6th of October 2010 and it quickly grew in popularity reaching 400 million users as of September
2015 (Instagram, 2015). It focuses on enabling their users to edit and share photos and videos
publicly or private. One important feature of the platform is that it allows users to search for
different (public) posts that contain a certain hashtag (for example: #wanderlust). Because of its
focus on sharing visual content, it can be a powerful tool that can help create destination brand as
it is argued by Fatanti and Syadnya (2015). Although their study lacks some methodological
rigor, it does point out the fact that Instagram has an increasing influential power and that can
encourage, leverage and systemize user-generated content (UGC) with the help of different
strategies such as: use of hashtags (e.g. #VisitBali); sharing tourist photos in their official
account; geo-tagging the photos shared; requesting for a response from the users; organizing
promotions and so on.
2.3 Destination Marketing Organizations use of Social Media
Social media can be used by destination marketing organizations (DMOs) as a powerful
tool to persuade travelers to choose a particular destination or hotel that they may have not
previously considered. A study by Hays, Page, & Buhalis (2013) analyzed the social media
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usage of the top 10 most visited countries by international travelers. Their results show that SM
usage among DMOs is mostly experimental since they are still at the initial stages of utilizing
SM to promote their destinations, thus confirming Gretzel et al.’s (2006) proposition which
affirms that DMOs still need a greater understanding of how to better utilize social media in their
promotional campaigns. At the same time, the strategies employed by DMOs varied extensively,
most of them being rudimentary, from the analyzed national tourism organizations analyzed,
only two were an exception from this. Those two National Tourism Organizations (NTOs) do
provide a series of best practices, but there is still room and need for further research that could
help NTOs be more creative and use social network sites (STSs) to their maximum capacity. The
quality high variation in the content produced by NTOs was observed also by the author in the
case of the countries analyzed in the paper.
There are numerous studies done on how to better manage a brand on social media in
order to get a better response from consumers (Kaplan & Haenlein, 2010; Hollebeek, Glynn, &
Brodie, 2014; de Vriesa, Genslera, & Leeflang, 2012) that can help marketers in NTOs create a
brand for the desired destination. One of the important findings relate to enhance the popularity
of a brand post. The drivers found by de Vriesa, Genslera, & Leeflang (2012) are: interactivity,
vividness and position of branded post.
Destination Branding
One method that marketers consistently use to promote a particular destination is
branding. By adopting branding, marketers can achieve different goals, such as: brands can
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simplify consumers’ choice, guarantee a certain quality level, reduce perceived risk and/or
increase consumer’s trust (Keller & Lehmann, 2006). Keller & Lehmann (2003) consider brands
to be “the most valuable assets for any firm” for their ability to generate long-term income for
the company. Given that the hospitality industry is service based, it translates into a higher
perceived risk by the customers because of its intangible and experiential nature (Murray &
Schlacter, 1990). Therefore, brands are very important in the tourism and hospitality industry
since they have the role of reducing the perceived risk of consumers when they decide to book a
holiday (Kahneman & Tversky, 1979).
However, since the relationship between marketers has changed drastically after the
internet boom, practitioners need to be more aware of the network dynamics that govern social
media platforms. Most importantly, people with similar interests can gather in groups and
discuss about topics of interest to them, including traveling (Holt, 2016), thus transforming the
once-isolated communities around the globe into influential online crowdcultures.
Due to the industry’s characteristics, there are several limitations that marketers need to
take into consideration when developing the marketing strategy for a particular location. A few
of them are:
 Tourism is dependent of macro-environmental factors (politics, disease outbreaks,
terrorism, currency fluctuations, climate conditions) (Dekimpe, Peers, & van Heerde,
2016; UNWTO, 2009)
 Inherited names and history (heritage), culture and country of origin (COO) perception
cannot be easily change (Balakrishnan, 2009)
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These are aspects that marketers need to address with the campaigns promoting a specific
location: they need to highlight the positive aspects from their cultural background and adapt
their marketing efforts to the fluctuation of various macro-environmental factors. Christou
(2015) has proved that a strong travel social media contributes to travelers’s brand loyalty.
Therefore, it is necessary for marketing professionals to invest their efforts and budgets in
building a trustworthy social media brand for their destination designed especially for the desired
target group in order to obtain a maximum return on investment.
Destination branding has become a tool vital for marketers trying to differentiate a city or
location since the global competition between places is growing continuously (Hultman,
Yeboah-Banin, & Formaniuk, 2016). As Michelson & Paadam (2016) conclude, it is necessary
to develop in paralel the destination brand and the construction of the symbolic capital to
leverage the interconnectedness between the two. There are a series of methods that can be
utilized in order to achieve this goal. The main types of engagements that Michelson & Paadam
(2016) propose are: engamenents with images prima facie, engagements with local offers of
products and services; engagements with spatial opportunities. Of course, the first type of
engagements (engagements with images prima facie) can be shared also in an online
environment, taking advance of today’s technology advancements.
Of course, in order to successfully develop a strong social media brand or a strong
destination brand on social media it is important to first have a very clear idea about what are the
necessary steps that need to be taken. A very helpful and clear strategic framework for
destination branding was proposed by Balakrishnan (2009), after an in-depth literature review
that can serve as guidelines for marketers starting to develop the branding strategy for a
particular destination. It is reproduced in Figure 2. The most important thing to emphasize is that
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as Balakrishnan (2009) argues Vision should be starting point of the strategy development proces
as without defining it properly, the rest of the strategic parts (customer targeting, positioning
brand components and so on) will probably not be correctly defined, nor implemeneted correctly.
Therefore, it would be improbable to obtain the maximum level of impact.
Figure 2: Branding strategy for a destination
Source: (Balakrishnan, 2009)
As it was mentioned before, one of the techniques that marketers use to engage with
consumers and to influence them to purchase is by generating branded content, both in the
offline and online environment (Keller & Lehmann, 2006; Gensler, et al., 2013). By doing so,
they can educate the consumer regarding several target attractions/activities, but also build a
brand destination brand that will help bring more tourist in the country on long term. Therefore,
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the quantity of marketer-generated content should have a positive effective on tourists purchase
behavior. However, because in the niche condition people are more likely to not be informed
regarding the destination than in the popular condition, it is more likely that for niche destination
marketer-generated content will be more effective, consumers being more interested in receiving
information about this type of countries. Based on this, the author formulates the first hypothesis
of the paper:
H1: Marketer generated content by National Tourism Organizations will have a positive
effect on the number of visitors.
2.4 Travel Guides
A travel guide is defined as “a book about a city, country, or area” (Macmillan
Dictionary, n.d.). There are a number of popular travel guides such as Lonely Planet, Rough
Guides, Frommers, Michelin Guide and In Your Pocket City Guides. Traditionally, these travel
guides represented the main source of information used both before trip and during it (Hyde &
Lawson, 2013). At the same time, printed travel guides have declined in sales and they were
forced to offer a big quantity of content online on their sites due to the change in consumer
behavior (Mesquita, 2012). Little research is known on the current role of travel guides in the age
of social media, where the consumers rely on their smartphones to research, plan and enhance
the traveling experience (Wang, Park, & Fesenmaier, 2012).
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More recently, online travel guides have appeared. The most popular is TripAdvisor
reaching 350 million unique monthly visitors (TripAdvisor, 2015). TripAdvisor is a platform
where users share content (reviews, pictures), thus influencing each other. At the same time, on
TripAdvisor also the marketers have the possibility to share pieces of information, but it is
clearly signaled on the site which is marketer-generated and which is user-generated content
(Miguens, Baggio, & Costa, 2008). The site’s popularity does not come as a surprise since it
takes advance of people’s tendency to create online crowdcultures that influence each and
become viral on social media (Holt, 2016).
By the nature of their business, travel guides offer advice and important information to
tourists as to when to go to a particular destination, what to visit there, where to eat and so on.
Therefore, they act as experts in their field, representing a reliable source of information and
communicating with their customers accordingly. As Cialdini (2006) argues, experts (or
authority) are among the universal factors identified by his research that can be used to easily
influence other people. The other factors identified by him are: reciprocity, scarcity, consistency,
liking and consensus.
Nevertheless, internet enabled users to connect and form specialized communities and
has made expert information easily available. Consequently, one can wonder about what is the
role of traditional travel guides (such as Lonely Planet, Rough Guides and Frommer’s) in today’s
interconnected world. Do they still have a place on the market or will continue losing users to
sites such as TripAdvisor that rely on user-generated content.
Since travel sites advertise all destinations and strive to provide useful and high-quality
content, they are seen as impartial and as experts in field. Thus, if they officially recommend a
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particular destination as the place that must be visited that year, then travelers are more likely to
be influenced, especially if Cialdini’s (2006) theory about influence. Therefore, the following
hypothesis has been proposed:
H2: Content generated by Travel Guides will have a positive effect on the number of
visitors.
Of course, it is expected for differences between the niche and popular destinations to be
observed. Given that in the niche condition, people are more likely to be uninformed regarding
the destination than in the popular condition, it is more likely that for niche destination marketer-
generated content will be more effective. This is probable because the information regarding
niche destinations represents new and interesting information which people would like to receive
but also to share it with their social group since traveling can be considered also self-relevant for
the tourist (Berger & Schwartz, 2011; Chung & Darke, 2006). In the case of travel sites, people
will have the tendency to react more positive given their lack of information regarding the
touristic possibilities in a particular niche destination. Overall, due to the need for information,
the tourists will be impacted more strongly by the content about niche destinations rather than
the content about popular destinations. Thus, the author proposes the last two of the paper’s
hypothesis:
H3a: The relationship between content generated by national tourism boards and the
number of visitors will be influenced by the popularity of the destination.
H3b: The relationship between travel guides the number of visitors will be influenced by
the popularity of the destination.
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2.5 User-Generated Content
User generated content (UGC) is a powerful influence tool, 70% of global consumers say
online reviews are the second most trusted form of advertising (Bennett, 2012). Also, the most
trusted form of advertising is earned media such as e-WOM and recommendations from friends
and family.
UGC can have also a negative impact on a destination brand. The content released by
NTOs follows clear branding rules in order to accomplish previously stated internal goals,
whereas UGC does not follow these rules and can either praise the location or critique it if the
tourists were not satisfied with their stay (Lim, Chung, & Weaver, 2012). Because of this,
consumers have different perceptions of a destination brand created by consumers than the one
created by DMOs. This might end up being even more powerful than the brand image built by
marketers.
Moreover, there are differences also in the profile of users that so share content online.
Lo et al. (2011) concluded that users, who share pictures online from their travels tend to be
better educated, earn a higher income and are younger than those who do not post. At the same
time, they usually use different platforms to distribute their photographs. Even if currently, only
a minority of people post pictures online, this percentage is expected to increase. Thus, this could
have an even greater impact on other potential tourists in the planning phase.
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There are various reasons why consumers choose to distribute content online regarding
their traveling experiences. Motivational factors for instance differ depending on type of content
and type of social media (Munar & Jacobsen, 2014). For example, altruistic and community-
related motivations are most relevant for information sharing. Moreover, users feel the need to
control their content, thus social networks allowing audience control are most popular for online
sharing. There is low ‘real-time’ use of social media for holiday content sharing, probably due to
situational factors. Interestingly, visual content is preferred for sharing by travelers rather than
narrative or textual content.
A specific type of UGC is represented by blogs (or web logs) that do also have a high
percentage of textual information in their content, not only visual. Nevertheless, the quality of
the text written on the site can vary greatly among blogs, as well as the relevance for readers
(Akehurst, 2009). In the case of blogs, it is easy to see how the “long tail” effect described above
is applied. They do have an important role in distributing information relevant for travelers, but
also for tourism and marketing managers. Other roles of blogs found in the research by Akehurst
(2009) are educating tourists and facilitating tourism transactions.
Despite the disadvantages of UCG, Goh, Heng, & Lin, (2013) have compared marketer-
generated content (MGC) with UCG for the apparel industry and have found MCG to be less
effective (-22%) in persuading consumers. The study looked on what is the difference in impact
of UGC vs. MGC on consumers’ purchase expenditures by looking at a Facebook page
community. The differences recorded clearly showed that UGC exhibits a stronger influence
power on consumer purchase behavior than MGC. It would be interesting to research whether
this effect holds also for touristic services, not only apparel and other social media platforms.
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In conclusion, UGC is a very important factor for social media that impacts consumers’
purchasing decision. Initially, it was part of the proposed conceptual framework and research
question along with the other independent variables (content-generated by National Tourism
Organizations and content-generated by travel guides). Unfortunately, due to the limitations in
collecting the data, it was not possible to include also this factor in the analysis. A short literature
review for this topic was done because of its importance for the social media literature.
2.6 Long Tail Effect
There are numerous social network sites (SNSs) and research (Xiang & Gretzel, 2010)
has established that there is a core and a long tail in the distribution. The long tail is represented
in this case is represented by a substantial number of less popular websites, while the core is
made out a handful of “big players”. The “tail” manages to obtain profit by providing a greater
variety than the core or the “short head” (Anderson, 2006). This principal can be easily
compared to the Pareto rule: the top 20% make 80% of the profit, whereas the bottom 80%
makes 20% of the profit.
The long tail principal can apply to destinations because there are some locations that
continuously attract a larger number of tourists, even in the off-season period, whereas there are
some other places that have a smaller number of visitors, but they can make profit by offering a
higher-value selection of products/goods/services. Of course, a small village in the mountains
cannot be compared to a major tourist destination such as Paris or Rome, but it does have unique
25
advantages, such as the scenery and less polluted and hectic environment. These can be
perceived as unique attributes by some travelers who would prefer to go to a peaceful place
rather than to an overcrowded touristic metropolis. In this example, the small village can be
considered niche destination due to its characteristics.
Social media can be leveraged to promote niche destination marketing given its targeting
capabilities (Lew, 2008). Moreover, it can help create a community of target consumers in order
to build a sense of trust and a strong identity that will increase tourism in the desired regions over
time. By considering the long tail approach, it can help better understand and explain the
possible differences between niche and popular destinations.
2.7 Literature gap and Research Question
Because, as previously stated, the literature regarding the applications of social media in
tourism is still in its incipient phase the gaps that are signaled by researchers (Leung, Law et al.,
2013, Zeng & Gerritsen, 2014) are numerous. However, they accentuate the fact that quantitative
research in general is needed in order to generalize the findings of previous studies. At the same
time, it is important to point out that usually studies analyze only one influence factor for the
tourism industry, not realizing across multiple factors.
However, Fotis, Buhalis, & Rossides (2012) have compared the influence power of
various types of information (photo & video sharing websites, blogs, microblogs, social
networking websites, wikis, and travel review websites) by surveying travelers from Russia and
26
Former Soviet States about their last holiday trip. The main differences versus the present study
are:
(1) The researchers used a non-random survey to collect data, which means that the
answers can influenced by cognitive biases and not represent the truthful image
(2) The respondents are from the same region which means the results cannot be
generalized
(3) The research does not make a comparison between niche and popular destinations
For these reasons, there was an identified gap in the literature regarding social media in
tourism about measuring the influence power and comparing the most important factors across
multiple social media platforms for both niche and mainstream tourism. Thus, the proposed
research question for this paper is:
How is the tourists’ purchase decision influenced by social media factors (content
generated by destination marketing organizations, and travel sites) and how do these effects
compare between niche and popular destinations?
The proposed main objectives of the study are the following:
1. Analyzing two of the most important factors based on previous research
In order for the results of the research to have a maximum impact on the industry, the
most important factors will be considered. With the purpose of respecting time and
data collection constraints for finalizing this research, only two factors were chosen
for this analysis.
27
2. Measuring and comparing their power of influence across on one of the main social
media platforms
Once again, one of the main social media sites was chosen so that the influence level
could be at a maximum level, while at the same time taking into consideration
practical constraints like the availability of the necessary data.
3. Compare data across niche destinations and popular destinations
It is assumed by the author that travelers have a different behavior when they are
considering visiting a niche country versus a popular country. Therefore, it is likely
that the sources used for gathering information and the sensibility that they have to a
particular information source vary as well depending on the level of the country’s
popularity.
At this moment, the literature on the topic of social media in tourism is still in its
incipient phase, but this topic is getting more and more attention from researchers (Zeng &
Gerritsen, 2014; Leung, et al., 2013). There are a number of papers analyzing various singular
factors of influence but none that realizes a comparison on one of the main social media factors.
Due to easiness of data collection, Instagram was chosen for the present research.
2.8 Contributions
This research will contribute to existing literature by realizing a classification of these
factors and will help establish different new directions for further research. Moreover, it will help
create a deeper understanding of the differences between niche destinations tourism marketing
28
and mainstream destinations marketing, especially in terms of influence factors. Also, it will help
fill the literature gap regarding quantitative researches on social media (especially, regarding the
papers focused on the tourism and hospitality industry), thus having a higher validity by
measuring actual behaviors, not reported behaviors (as in the case of surveys). By doing so, the
author manages to captures all effects that impact the purchase behavior, even the ones that go
unnoticed by consumers. Furthermore, the paper will offer a better understanding on the role and
the influence power of traditional expert publications (such as travel guides) in the online
environment.
One of the most important insights the travel industry will gain from the present research
is the evaluation of the importance of travel for influencing purchasing decisions and how they
compare with the content generated with other types of information source. Travel guides act as
unbiased experts for the hospitality industry. Therefore, they can be more influential than the
content or campaigns created by the national tourism boards.
At the same time, the results of the research will be valuable for managers as they will
have better understanding of the importance of these factors and will be able to allocate funds to
obtain the maximum impact on consumers. Therefore, the managers will generate a better return
on marketing investment. For example, a hotel will know if partnering with the national tourism
board or with a travel guide is more advantageous for its business. Both of the factors analyzed
in this paper are easily influenced by marketers, thus can be leveraged effortlessly by the
marketers to achieve long-term results.
For a better understanding and visualization of the goals of the current research, the
author proposes the following conceptual framework (see Figure 1). It has been developed to test
29
the hypotheses, which were mentioned and explained. Moreover, the framework has also been
developed to analyze the effect of content generated by National Tourism Organizations Travel
Guides on the number of actual visitors. At the same time, the framework tries to test whether
this effect would differ for destinations with different levels of popularity. The method used for
collecting the data is explained in the next chapter.
3. Research Design and Methodology
3.1 Sample
The data collected will focus on 6 different countries – 3 popular and 3 niche – out of
which 4 – 2 popular and 2 niche – have been featured in articles and been presented as top
destinations for 2015 from 2 of the leading travel guides, namely Lonely Planet (Fildes, 2007)
and Rough Guides. The following countries were chosen:
 Popular destinations:
o Canada – recommended by Rough Guides (2015)
o Singapore – recommended by Lonely Planet (2014)
o Germany
 Niche destinations:
o Serbia – recommended by Rough Guides (2015) and Lonely Planet (2014)
o Ireland – recommended by Lonely Planet (2014)
o Croatia
30
These particular countries were chosen in order to ensure diversity, but also test the
influence of different travel guides. It was necessary to be able to obtain monthly information for
the number of tourists that visited each country analyzed during 2014 and 2015 since this data is
used as input for the dependent variable (Purchase decision of tourists). At the same time, it was
necessary that the National Tourism Organization (NTO) for each country should have an active
Instagram account, because this data is used as input for one of the independent variable
(National Tourism Organization Content). The division between popular and niche was realized
based on the classification published by World Bank (2015) for 2014 regarding the annual
number of tourists. For the Tourist Guides variable, the data was collected from the official
Instagram accounts of two different international travel guides, namely: Lonely Planet (Lonely
Planet - Instagram, 2016) and Rough Guides (Rough Guides - Instagram, 2016) for the period
2014 and 2015.
3.2 Research design
At the same time, the measurement of visiting behavior will be done using estimates
provided by the tourism boards or by the national institutes of tourism as it is detailed in Table 1.
This method was chosen because it provided the necessary data in a timely manner in order to
achieve the main research objectives mentioned above while still maintaining a quantitative
approach. The data collected in this manner was used to measure the effect of the paper’s only
dependent variable (actual visiting behavior).
31
Table 1: Overview of information sources per each country
Country Popularity level National Statistics Institute Type of data collected
Singapore Popular (Singapore Tourism Board, International Visitors
2015; Singapore Tourism Arrival
Board, 2016)
Canada Popular (Destination Canada, 2016) International Visitors
Arrival
Germany Popular (De Statis, 2016) Visitor Number
Ireland Niche (Central Statistics Office - International visitors – all
Ireland, 2016) means of transportation
Serbia Niche (Република Србија, 2016) Number of Tourist Arrival
Croatia Niche (Croatian Bureau of Statistics, Number of Tourist Arrival
2016)
For the social media content, the data will be collected from Instagram since it is one of
the leading social media platforms and for practical reasons (it can provide data from previous
years and it will be accessed easily using specialized software by accessing the sites’ application
program interface). The sources from which the Instagram data was collected are detailed in
Table 2.
32
Table 2: Overview of Instagram information sources
Account Name Account Type Instagram citation Type of data collected
Visit_Singapore Popular national (Visit_Singapore - Monthly number of posts and
tourism board Instagram , 2016) average number of likes per post
Explore_Canada Popular national (Explore Canada - Monthly number of posts and
tourism board Instagram, 2016) average number of likes per post
Germanytourism Popular national (Germany Tourism - Monthly number of posts and
Tourismireland Niche national (Tourism Ireland - Monthly number of posts and
tourism board Instagram , 2016) average number of likes per post
Serbiatourism Niche national (Serbia Tourism - Monthly number of posts and
Croatiafulloflife Niche national (Croatia Full of Life Monthly number of posts and
tourism board - Instagram, 2016) average number of likes per post
Lonelyplanet Travel guide (Lonely Planet - Monthly number of posts
Instagram, 2016) mentioning the analyzed areas
Roughguides Travel guide (Rough Guides - Monthly number of posts
Instagram, 2016) mentioning the analyzed areas
With the intention of measuring the dependent variables (national tourism boards and
travel guides), only one indicator was used, namely the actual number of monthly visitors
33
reported by the national statistics institutes. In order to measure the independent variables
(national tourism boards and travel guides), the following indicators were used:
 The number of monthly posts created by the national tourism board on the chosen
social media platform
By using this indicator, the author aims to measure the quantity of the marketing
effort done by the organization
 The number of the monthly average of likes per posts created by the national
tourism board on the chosen social media platform
By using this indicator, the author aims to measure the quality of the marketing
effort done by the organization through the posts’ engagement
 The number of social media mentions by the travel guides
With the help of this indicator, the author tries to measure the amount of
advocating done for a specific destination done by the travel guides only through
the usage of small constant reminders
 The yearly recommendation of countries as the best place to travel in the
following year
With the help of this indicator, the author tries to measure the amount of
advocating done for a specific destination done by the travel guides only through
the usage of a yearly recommendation
For a better understanding of the data that will be analyzed, the author has provided a
series of graphs illustrated in Figures 3-8 highlighting the relationship between social media
postings and the number of visitors. A general strategy cannot be understood from the graphics
presented. Some countries (for example: Canada, Germany, Ireland, Croatia) have the tendency
34
of trying a social media push by increasing their effort a few months before the peak season or
even exactly at the peak season for tourism. As Gretzen, et al., (2006) has also discovered, the
strategies used by the national tourism boards seem to be lacking in terms of consistency for post
number. In this case, it becomes probable that a lower return on investment will be the result of
the marketers’ work.
Overview of analyzed data - Overview of analyzed data -

country level country level
70 160 0 70. 00 450 0
400 0
140 0
60 60. 00
350 0
120 0
50 50. 00
300 0
100 0
40 40. 00
250 0
800
200 0
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100 0
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500
0 0 0.0 0 0
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Jul-14
Sep-14
Nov-14
Jul-15
Sep-15
Nov-15
Jul-14
Sep-14
Nov-14
Jul-15
Sep-15
Nov-15
Singapore - posts Singapore - visitors Canada - posts Canada - visitors
Figure 3: Overview of analyzed data – Singapore Figure 4: Overview of analyzed data – Canada

80 200 00 45 180 0
180 00 40 160 0
70
160 00
35 140 0
60
140 00
30 120 0
50
120 00
25 100 0
40 100 00
20 800
800 0
30
15 600
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20
10 400
400 0
10
200 0 5 200
0 0 0 0
Mar-14
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Jan-14
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Jan-14
Nov-14
Jan-15
Nov-15
Jul-14
Sep-14
Jul-15
Sep-15
Jul-14
Sep-14
Jul-15
Sep-15
Germany - posts Germany - visitors

Ireland - posts Ireland - visitors
Figure 5: Overview of analyzed data - Germany Figure 6: Overview of analyzed data - Ireland
35
20 350 250 400 0
18
350 0
300
16 200
300 0
250
14
250 0
12 150
200
10 200 0
150
8 100
150 0
6
100
100 0
50
4
50 500
2
0 0
0 0
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Jan-15
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Jul-14
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Sep-15
Sebia - posts Sebia - visitors Croatia - posts Croatia - visitors
Figure 7: Overview of analyzed data - Serbia Figure 8: Overview of analyzed data - Croatia
3.3 Results and Analysis
In order to test the hypothesis, the author has run a regression analysis between the
monthly data of travelers and the number of social media posts published by the National
Tourism Organizations, the engagement of these posts (measured by the number of likes per
post), whether or not that country was part of the yearly recommendation of any travel guide and
the number of mentions a particular country has received on the travel guides Instagram account.
All the data analyzed for the regression consisted only of monthly data for the 2014–2015 period.
Due to the purchasing behavior of tourists (usually, they do not purchase a vacation for
tomorrow, but they buy in advance), time lag effects were integrated in the analysis. Therefore,
the regression was re-run with different time lags – from no lag to a six-month lag. This range
was chosen because the majority of tourists (82% in 2014 and 75% in 2015) decide to book a
holiday in this time frame (Statista, 2016). The results of this analysis are summarized and
reproduced below in the Tables 3-9.
36
There are a few general trends that emerge based on the analysis. These trends will be
discussed in detail in the Discussion chapter. For the regression analysis with no lag, without the
interaction between the independent variables and the moderator, almost all independent
variables are significant. However, this changes when the interaction variables with the level of
popularity (the moderator) is added. Only the influence manifested by social media posts and the
travel guides’ yearly recommendation are still significant across all steps of the analysis.
Curiously, the influence manifested by the travel guides is actually negative, while the one
displayed by social media posts by the travel guides is positive when moderated with the
popularity variable. This situation is replicated for two-month lag and three-month lag, while for
the time lag between four months and six months, the situation was very similar with the only
difference that social media posts by national tourism boards were no longer significant in step 3.
If the lag effect for one month is added, the results start changing slightly. Once again,
without the effect of the moderator all the independent variables are significant. Although, when
the interaction factor is added, this once again changes, the significance for travel guides’
mentions disappearing. It is important to point out that engagement on the national tourism
boards Instagram account is significant even after adding the effect produced by the popularity
and the relationship between engagement and number is moderated by the popularity. The two
trends illustrated above are very interesting since they do add another step in the visiting decision
process: shortly before the actual trip, the traveler researches online to find the key attractions
that should be visited while traveling. Therefore, this is very important moment for marketers to
target the tourist since the willingness to receive information about the country is probably
higher than usual.
37
Table 3: Regression Analysis - No Lag Table 4: Regression Analysis - One Month Lag
No Lag R R2 β One Month Lag R R2 β

Step 1 0.79 0.63 Step 1 0.78 0.61
SM_posts -0.66*** SM_posts -0.65***
Recommended -1.02*** Recommended -1.00***
SM_likes 0.16** SM_likes 0.19***
TG_Mentions 0.09 TG_Mentions 0.05**
Step 2 0.87 0.76 Step 2 0.84 0.71
SM_likes -0.02 SM_likes 0.01***
TG_Mentions 0.07 TG_Mentions 0.08
Pop*SM_posts 0.50*** Pop*SM_posts 0.43
Pop*SM_likes 0.09 Pop*SM_likes 0.12***
Pop*TG_Mentions -0.03 Pop*TG_Mentions -0.08
Pop*Recommended -0.25** Pop*Recommended -0.22
Step 3 0.96 0.92 Step 3 0.94 0.88
SM_posts 0.08 SM_posts 0.08
Recommended 0.06 Recommended 0.07
SM_likes 0.11 SM_likes 0.14
Pop*SM_posts -0.11* Pop*SM_posts -0.2
Pop*SM_likes -0.02 Pop*SM_likes 0.01**
Pop*Recommended -1.27*** Pop*Recommended -1.28
Popularity 1.48*** Popularity 1.54***
Note: Statistical significance: *p<.05; **p<.01; ***p<.001
38
Table 5: Regression Analysis - Two-Month Lag Table 6: Regression Analysis - Three-Month Lag
Two Month Lag R R2 β Three Month Lag R R2 β

Step 1 0.77 0.59 Step 1 0.75 0.56
SM_likes 0.21*** SM_likes 0.23***
Step 2 0.82 0.67 Step 2 0.80 0.64
Pop*SM_posts 0.40*** Pop*SM_posts 0.38***
Pop*SM_likes 0.1 Pop*SM_likes 0.07
Pop*Recommended -0.20* Pop*Recommended -0.19*
Step 3 0.91 0.83 Step 3 0.89 0.78
SM_posts 0.04 SM_posts 0.02
Recommended 0.03 Recommended 0.00
Pop*SM_posts -0.20** Pop*SM_posts -0.2*
Pop*SM_likes -0.01 Pop*SM_likes -0.03
Pop*Recommended -1.22*** Pop*Recommended -1.16***
39
Table 7: Regression Analysis - Four-Month Lag Table 8: Regression Analysis - Five-Month Lag
Four Month Lag R R2 β Five Month Lag R R2 β

Step 1 0.73 0.53 Step 1 0.70 0.49
SM_posts -0.620*** SM_posts -0.59***
SM_likes 0.230*** SM_likes 0.23***
TG_Mentions 0 TG_Mentions -0.02
Step 2 0.78 0.60 Step 2 0.76 0.58
SM_posts -0.520*** SM_posts -0.48***
Pop*SM_posts 0.370*** Pop*SM_posts 0.43***
Pop*SM_likes 0.04 Pop*SM_likes 0.03
Pop*Recommended -0.19 Pop*Recommended -0.23*
Step 3 0.86 0.73 Step 3 0.83 0.69
SM_posts 0 SM_posts -0.02
Recommended -0.02 Recommended -0.04
TG_Mentions -0.01 TG_Mentions 0.00
Pop*SM_posts -0.16 Pop*SM_posts -0.05
Pop*SM_likes -0.06 Pop*SM_likes -0.06
Pop*Recommended -1.10*** Pop*Recommended -1.04***
40
Table 9: Regression Analysis - Six-Month Lag
Six Month Lag R R2 β

Step 1 0.67 0.44
SM_posts -0.55***
Recommended -0.86***
SM_likes 0.22***
TG_Mentions -0.01
Step 2 0.75 0.56
SM_posts -0.43***
Recommended -0.61***
SM_likes 0.16
TG_Mentions 0.03
Pop*SM_posts 0.5***
Pop*SM_likes 0.01
Pop*TG_Mentions -0.11
Pop*Recommended -0.28**
Step 3 0.80 0.64
SM_posts -0.02
Recommended -0.03
SM_likes 0.25
TG_Mentions 0.01
Pop*SM_posts 0.07
Pop*SM_likes -0.07
Pop*TG_Mentions -0.1
Pop*Recommended -1.00***
Popularity 1.04***
In conclusion, there were two cases that emerged. The general trend was the first one
where social media posts and the yearly recommendation by travel guides were the independent
variable that had an interaction with popularity and it moderated the relationship the independent
variables had with the number of visitors arriving in the target countries. Nevertheless, it is very
interesting to point out that in the condition with one month lag the social media likes had an
41
important influence on the dependent variable and the relationship was moderated by popularity.
Therefore, the author argues that this is proof for a change in the behavior of visitors, since in the
case of niche destinations they look and engage with the national tourism board Instagram as a
source of inspiration for their travels.
4. Discussion
As it was mentioned in the previous section, there were two trends that were observed in
the reported results. Time lags where integrated in the analysis in order to capture the distinct
behavior of travelers, namely they usually book holidays in advance. The majority of them book
their holidays with maximum 6 months in advance (Statista, 2016). This was important since it
allowed the author to verify if the behavior of tourists varies in time.
Since across the time lags, almost all the independent variables selected had a significant
impact on the number of visitors in step 1 of the analysis (without the moderator). The only
exception was the travel guides mentions of the location in social media. Nevertheless, because
the yearly recommendation of travel guides was significant with a negative interaction, it signals
that H2 is partly supported and that travel guides has a negative influence on the number of
tourists. For national tourism boards’ indicators, they were all significant meaning that they do
have an impact on the number of tourists. However, because the sign for social media posts’
indicator was minus, it signal that the relationship between the number of posts and the number
of visitors is reversed. One possible explanation for this effect is that marketers may have the
tendency to overshare online and this makes users to no longer appreciate the content shared by
42
them. In conclusion, H1 is partly supported because of the negative sign for the social media
posts’ indicator.
As part of the general trend of the results, the interactions between the number of social
media posts and the travel guides’ yearly recommendation were moderated by the popularity of
the destination. When moderated with the popularity, the social media posts’ indicator changed
its sign and became positive; therefore, signaling that content generated by national tourism
boards is more influential for popular destinations. In conclusion, hypothesis H3a is supported.
In the case of travel guides, yearly recommendations are indeed moderated by the level of
popularity as it is demonstrated by the data, being more efficient for niche destinations as shown
by the negative sign of the variable. As a result, H3b is also supported.
The second trend revealed that social media likes are also moderated by the level of
popularity, being more efficient for popular destinations. One possible explanation for this effect
is that use Instagram to research different activities or sights in order to decide on a schedule
shortly before the actual trip. It is very useful for marketers to take this into consideration when
they are developing their content so that they can promote different events taking place or
attractions that can visited in the next month. At the same time, this effect further supports H3a.
To sum up, for tourism social media definitely has an impact and this is visible in both
the content being produced by national tourism boards, but also in the yearly recommendations
by travel guides. However, the influence effect was not illustrated also by the travel guides social
media mentions, probably because they were not frequent enough.
43
5. Limitations and further research
In the initial plan of the research, the author included also user-generated content as a
third independent variable due to its demonstrated importance in social media and more
importantly for the influencing power social media has on its users. Unfortunately, the
complexity of the data collection process forced the author to eliminate this variable. The
complexity was driven by the need to differentiate between posts written by travelers and by
locals, but also the need to extract only the posts written in the 2014 – 2015 period.
Aside from adding user-generated content as a third independent variable, there are of
course other methods through which the insights offered by the present paper could have been
further enhanced. One of the ways of increasing the ability to generalize the results is to include
more countries in the analysis from different continents and extend the period. By doing so, the
researchers can testify that the effects identified by the author are consistent across time and
continents. Also, it would be recommended to add more travel guides to be certain that this
independent variable is represented correctly. Furthermore, it would be also interesting to test if
there are any significant differences between traditional travel guides (like the ones analyzed in
this research) and new types of travel guides that depend on user-generated content (such as
TripAdvior).
At the same time, the results of the study can be further enhanced if in parallel with a
social media analysis, a survey is conducted in order to find out more about their purchase and
research behavior for travel services. It would be recommended to include as many nationalities
from different geographic regions or continent as possible to have a representative sample across
the globe. Another goal for the survey is to clarify the travelers’ perceptions of travel guides as
44
an expert in the field and of national tourism boards as a source of information and as an
influencer. Of course, in order to identify the ideal hypotheses for the proposed survey, it is
necessary to first carry out a qualitative study or a pilot study.
In conclusion, the author recommends recreating the current study but improving it by
extending the period, adding more countries and more travel guides, but also adding a survey to
have a better understanding of how social media impacts the travelers’ behavior across different
stages of the shopping process (identification of need, search, purchase and post-purchase). The
present research started to illustrate the different influence factors for niche versus mainstream
destinations. The author offers an overview of the hypotheses and their results in Table 10 for an
easier understanding of the results.
Table 10: Overview of hypotheses
# Hypothesis Status
H1 Marketer generated content by National Tourism Organizations will Partly
have a positive effect on the number of visitors. supported
H2 Content generated by Travel Guides will have a positive effect on the Partly
number of visitors. supported
H3a The relationship between content generated by national tourism boards Supported
and the number of visitors will be influenced by the popularity of the
destination.
H3b The relationship between travel guides the number of visitors will be Supported
influenced by the popularity of the destination.
45
6. Managerial implications
The current paper presents a series of managerial implications, important especially for
marketers working within a National Tourism Organization. It offers deeper insights on the role
of content generated by the NTOs, as well as content generated by travel guides which can be
considered experts (or an authority) in the field of tourism.
As it was shown by the results of the analysis, social media posts shared by the national
tourism boards do have an effect on the number of visitors if they do not overshare and alienate
the users. This is especially available for popular destinations. At the same time, social media
likes can predict a higher number of visitors in the next month and this relationship holds
especially for popular destinations. This interaction signalizes a new moment when marketers
should target tourists in order to obtain results at a maximum level, namely one month before the
actual trip when the travelers are researching the most important attractions or events in the
desired area. Hence, marketers should focus their efforts in this period and curate the content
provided to the target audience accordingly.
For niche destinations, it is likely that travelers use different information sources. This is
demonstrated also in the research since yearly recommendations for niche destinations were
significantly more effective than for popular destinations. Nevertheless, social media mentions
were not significant at all across any of the stages. The author can only conclude that travel
guides use social media only to promote their own products and collaborating with them would
not be efficient for the national tourism boards, because it will not impact the number of
incoming visitors.
46
In conclusion, it is advisable for marketers that are promoting popular destinations to
focus more on their own social media content to continue building the country’s brand in the
digital environment, in order to obtain a higher return on investment. The literature that supports
the effort of building a strong social media brand for country of origin is vast (Zeng & Gerritsen,
2014; Balakrishnan, 2009; Avraham & Ketter, 2008; Hays, Page, & Buhalis, 2013; Christou,
2015). On the other hand, for niche destinations it is more important to obtain the yearly
recommendation of a leading travel guide since it will act as a stamp of guarantee, reassuring
that their choice is not a dangerous one since people tend to be risk averse (Kahneman &
Tversky, 1979).
7. Conclusion
Social media is becoming more and more influential as people spend more time online
and extending its sphere of influence to various domains for instance: work, politic,
communications, parenting and civic life (Pew Research Center, 2015). Tourism is no exception
of this. However, the literature focused on this topic is still in incipient phase (Dolnicar & Ring,
2014; Leung, et al., 2013; Zeng & Gerritsen, 2014) and a better understanding of the relationship
between social media and tourism. Thus, the paper offers important insights for managers and
regarding this topic. At the same time, if offers important insights about the role social media has
on tourism, while also highlighting how this role changes in the case of niche destinations versus
mainstreams ones.
47
As the author pointed out in the literature review, researchers already indicate that it is
recommended for marketers to integrate social media in their tourism campaigns, so that they
can take advantage of the unique opportunities given by the social networks (Dolnicar & Ring,
2014). On social media, they can have an additional channel of communication with visitors and
interact directly with them. Subsequently, they can curate and personalize the information
provided to their followers and also directly answer their questions. By doing so, they will be
able to grow their brand in the online environment and generate more online word-of mouth
(Gensler, et al., 2013). Creating a strong destination brand is one of the goals that tourism
marketers have so that they can attract visitors on the long term. In order to achieve this, they
must identify a vision that will be integrated across all communication channels Based on it, also
the target group will be decided. This framework was provided by Balakrishnan (2009) and it is
reproduced in Figure 2. It offers a good insight for marketing managers how they should plan
their activities.
The resarch question that the author aimed to answer is: How is the tourists’ purchase
decision influenced by social media factors (content generated by destination marketing
organizations, and travel sites) and how do these effects compare between niche and popular
destinations? To narrow down the goals of the research a number of hypotheses were proposes.
The author offers an overview of the hypotheses together with their result in Table 10. A better
understanding of the research model can be obtained by observing the Conceptual Framework
proposed in Figure 1. In order to obtain the necessary results, the author has realized a
longitudinal analysis focused on six different countries (3 niche and 3 popular). To measure the
results, four indicators were used, two for each independent variable proposed, namely number
of social media posts and the average engagement rate (measured by the number of likes) for the
48
social media presence for the National Tourism Organizations; the number of mentions the
countries received and the yearly recommendations for Travel Guides.
The research had interesting results. First, it clearly demonstrated that there are
differences between niche and popular countries when it comes to the influence factors that
impact travelers. Content developed by National Tourism Organizations were more effective for
mainstream destinations. Most likely this happens since visitor are more inclined to actively
search for the content related to those regions. This interaction was found between the number of
social media posts and the number of visitors. However, from the overview of the number of
posts and the number of visitors provided in the Figures 3-8, it seems like the countries do not
have a clear strategy in terms of the number of monthly posts. Another import finding related to
National Tourism Organizations is that there is the tendency of people to research information on
their Instagram account shortly before their trip. Therefore, marketers should focus on proving
informational content that will help travelers decide what the key activities they should opt for
while visiting. Once again, this is especially true for popular destinations. It is worth mentioning
that over this type of content, NTOs marketers have complete control, therefore they can transmit
the desire brand image accurately.
Another key finding related to the social media activity of National Tourism
Organizations was that engagement on social media is a good predictor of the number of tourist
that will come in the near future (one month in advance). This relationship holds especially for
popular destinations. It is likely that this effect occurs since tourists look on Instagram shortly
before their trip for inspiration when deciding exactly what attractions to visit or what events to
attend. This finding correlated with the one described above should really help NTO marketers in
developing their social media strategy and more specifically for Instagram.
49
The second independent variable analyzed was Travel Guides. They are an important
source of information for tourists by offering various types of verified information to visitors.
Therefore, they act as experts (or an authority) in the field and have a significant influence power
as predicted by Cialdini’s (2006) research. Their status of influential experts was also confirmed
by the results of this research. The yearly recommendation done by travel guides offered as a
stamp of guarantee, especially for niche destinations. The mentions done by travel guides on
their Instagram account did not have a significant impact on the number of visitors. Probably,
this is due to the fact that singular posts do not attract sufficient attention from the users in order
for them to be effective. Therefore, marketers that want to attract more visitors to a specific area
should partner with travel guides to get a clear and consistent coverage, not just a couple of
isolated posts in order for the expert endorsement effect to be observed.
The author begins to explain the differences that are present between niche and
mainstream destinations and how it is better to promote one versus the other. The paper has
numerous implications for both professionals and academics as it was previously described.
Further research is necessary however to better understand this differences between the two
types of destinations and what is the strength of those differences. Also, subsequent researches
are welcomed to ensure the generalization ability of the current research since the results are not
consistent over the course of the 6 months.
50
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Master Thesis

#Wanderlust: Measuring the Social Media Factors that Influence

Faculty of Economics and Business

MSc. In Business Administration – Marketing Track

Under supervision of: dr. Jonne Y. Guyt

Student: Diana Brosiu

Student number: 11083921

Date: 24th of June 2016

contents of this document.

of the work, not for the contents.

to increase my curiosity for this field and continue my learning process.

encouragements and for having patience and faith in me.

research field that has numerous practical implications.

24th June 2016

University of Amsterdam, The Netherlands

Social media is becoming increasingly popular and increasingly influential consequently.

media activity for the 2014 – 2015 period on a monthly basis

of the paper, together with managerial implications.

effects, regression analysis

Table of Contents ............................................................................................................................ 5

Table of Figures and Tables ............................................................................................................ 7

2.1 Tourism Marketing ......................................................................................................... 11

2.2 Social Media ................................................................................................................... 13

2.3 Destination Marketing Organizations use of Social Media ........................................... 15

Destination Branding ............................................................................................................ 16

2.4 Travel Guides ................................................................................................................. 20

2.5 User-Generated Content ................................................................................................. 23

2.6 Long Tail Effect ............................................................................................................. 25

2.7 Literature gap and Research Question ........................................................................... 26

2.8 Contributions .................................................................................................................. 28

3. Research Design and Methodology ...................................................................................... 30

3.1 Sample ............................................................................................................................ 30

3.3 Results and Analysis ...................................................................................................... 36

5. Limitations and further research ........................................................................................... 44

Figure 1: Conceptual Framework ................................................................................................. 10

Figure 2: Branding strategy for a destination ............................................................................... 19

Figure 3: Overview of analyzed data – Singapore ........................................................................ 35

Figure 4: Overview of analyzed data – Canada ............................................................................ 35

Figure 5: Overview of analyzed data - Germany .......................................................................... 35

Figure 6: Overview of analyzed data - Ireland ............................................................................. 35

Figure 7: Overview of analyzed data - Serbia .............................................................................. 36

Figure 8: Overview of analyzed data - Croatia ............................................................................. 36

Table 1: Overview of information sources per each country ........................................................ 32

Table 2: Overview of Instagram information sources .................................................................. 33

Table 3: Regression Analysis - No Lag ........................................................................................ 38

Table 4: Regression Analysis - One Month Lag ........................................................................... 38

Table 5: Regression Analysis - Two-Month Lag .......................................................................... 39

Table 6: Regression Analysis - Three-Month Lag ........................................................................ 39

Table 7: Regression Analysis - Four-Month Lag ......................................................................... 40

Table 8: Regression Analysis - Five-Month Lag .......................................................................... 40

Table 9: Regression Analysis - Six-Month Lag ............................................................................ 40

Table 10: Overview of hypotheses ............................................................................................... 45

United Nations World Tourism Organization (UNWTO, 2015).

continue gaining importance.

proposed research question for this paper is:

compare between niche and popular destinations?

independent variables are represented by the content produced by National Tourism