Weekly Mortgage Newsletter

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Mortgage rates slid slightly downward last week as we appear to be hitting a small “road bump” on
Week of the path of economic recovery. As expected, GDP was racketed downward, but the economy still
May 1, continues to grow, of course, at a slower pace. Discussions of inflationary concerns seem to dominate
2011 the financial press right now. However, markets seem to continue to hold some faith that the current
flare up in inflation will fade in the not-to-distant future. This week did have one ground breaking
event, as Fed Chair Ben Bernanke held the first-ever press conference following the end of a
Mortgage scheduled FOMC meeting. Markets reacted positively to a new level of central bank transparency.
Market Markets will likely focus on the ISM Indices and the monthly employment data. If we get more
Commentary indications that the economy is losing steam, we should see mortgage rates staying low, or even
drifting slightly downward. If the ISM Manufacturing Index remains elevated, and we get another
surprise decrease in the unemployment rate, we could see mortgage rates moving upward.
This Week’s Top Economic Reports and Events 30Yr 15Yr 1Yr ARM

Mortgage Rates
Report/Event Date Prior Est. Impact
ISM Manufacturing Index 5/2 61.2 59.7 Significant 5.00%

This report is likely to set the directional trend for rates this week. 4.50%
Anything over 60 will help keep rates steady or move them upward. 4.00%
Factory Orders 5/3 -0.1% 1.9% Limited 3.50%
With manufacturing still carrying the recovery, a larger-than-expected 3.00%
increase in orders could generate some small upward pressure on rates. 2/10 2/24 3/10 3/24 4/7 4/21
13,000.00
ISM Services Index 5/4 57.3 57.3 Moderate
12,750.00
Dow Jones

With services appearing to be stable, an unexpected drop could generate 12,500.00

some downward pressure on mortgage and other interest rates.
12,250.00

Unemployment Rate 5/6 8.8% 8.8% Significant 12,000.00

With the recent trend of unexpected decreases in unemployment, an 11,750.00

increase in unemployment would likely push rates downward. 11,500.00

3-Feb 17-Feb 3-Mar 17-Mar 31-Mar 14-Apr 28-Apr
Nonfarm Payrolls 5/6 216K 185K Significant
9.00
If we see another decrease in the unemployment rate and more jobs are
Historical Rates

created than expected, we may see mortgage rates moving upward. 6.00

Mortgage Rate Interest Rates and Indexes

3.00
Trends 1 Yr T-Bill 0.240% 11th D. COFI 1.469%
Short-Term ÎÎ 10 Yr T-Note 3.410% COSI 2.220% 0.00
Apr-06 Apr-07 Apr-08 Apr-09 Apr-10
Long-Term ÎÎ 6 Month Libor 0.431% CODI 0.331% 1 Yr CMT MTA COFI
CODI Prime
Volatility High Prime Rate 3.250% MTA 0.295%
10 Year Treasury Note Trend
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