ABSTRACT

The climate changes observed today arouse the attention of the whole world,
and are definitively imposed on the international geopolitical agenda of present
and future. An international consensus, even marked by some dissonant voices,
formed about predictions for the intensification of global warming in the 21st
century, points to the formation of complicated scenarios for ecosystems, the
environment and the lives of men. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change (IPCC), it is very likely that the increase in global average
temperature is due to the increase in greenhouse gases by human activities,
which supposedly raised CO2 concentration to 379 ppmv in 2005, surpassing
its natural limit, which would be 300 ppmv. In the present text, the natural
characteristics of the phenomenon, as well as of the interferences resulting from
human activities in its intensification, its cause, and the economic, political, and
some alternative solutions to combat global warming are also highlighted. Some
reflections of global climate change on the regional scale are evidenced, with
emphasis on the Brazilian region.

INTRODUCTION

The agenda on global warming has become more and more frequent
worldwide. Questions about its cause, intensification and anthropic attitudes
have been discussed in several conferences and by some entities as well.
Concern about the near future of planet Earth is real, and has been aggravated,
especially with statements by scientists saying that the average temperatures of
the planet have increased by about 1.5 ° C in the last two centuries, and that
there will be an approximate order intensification from 2 ° C to 6 ° C in the 21st
century. Climate change may be the natural result of the climate system, or
have strong human participation. The causes of anthropogenic origin are
associated with the influence of human activities on the environment, aspect
that became increasingly important as the modernity evolved. The changes
produced or man-made have been highlighted by the rise in the average
temperature levels in the planet, mainly due to the increase in the levels of
greenhouse gases which have been changing the composition and dynamism
of the atmosphere. As a result of this alteration process, the average

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temperature of the Earth's atmosphere is raised, a phenomenon known as
global warming and is directly associated with the planetary greenhouse effect.

1. The Greenhouse Effect - Global Warming

Greenhouse effect is a natural phenomenon of heating the Earth's
temperature, fundamental for maintaining the planet's thermal conditions in
ideal conditions for the survival of living beings. Without this natural greenhouse
effect, the Earth would be cold, with 33 ° smaller than current (Legget, 1992: 2),
making it impossible to develop living beings.

Part of the solar energy that reaches the planet is absorbed by the
oceans and the Earth's surface, causing it to warm up. A portion of this heat is
radiated back into space, but is blocked by the presence of greenhouse gases
that, despite allowing the energy from the sun to pass through, are opaque to
terrestrial radiation. In his scientific article, Francisco Mendonça explains how
the greenhouse effect works, and its main causative gases:

The retention of infrared radiation is caused by so-called

greenhouse gases. Among them are in order of importance and
volume in the atmosphere, water vapor, carbon dioxide (CO2),
methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O) and others with less
participation, such as hydrocarbons and artificial compounds
such as chlorofluorocarbons. These are long-lived gases in the
atmosphere. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
(IPCC) believes that even if emissions are completely
eliminated, which is impracticable, the practical result of such
an undertaking could take decades to manifest its effects on the
behavior of the atmosphere and the climate.

Among the climate changes currently caused by the concentration of

these gases in the atmosphere, it is seen that the main one is global warming,
which was detected in the increase of the average global temperature of air and
oceans, the frequent melting of snow and ice, rising sea level.

Current average global surface temperatures are the highest in recent

times. The average global surface temperature increased by about 0.74ºC,
considering the last hundred years. If no significant action is taken on this issue
of warming, it will be possible in this century to witness a very rare climate, a

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global average temperature increase of 2 ° C to 5.8 ° C, according to the 4th
Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which
compiles studies on the scientific basis of climate change, considers global
warming an unequivocal phenomenon and is most likely caused by human
activities.

2. Cause of the intensification of global warming

Faced with some causes for global warming, the main one, according to
the scientists, is the increase in the greenhouse effect, which has been
intensified mainly by anthropic actions such as the emission of pollutants by
industries, by burning fossil fuels, by vehicles, and even livestock, causing
damage, which may be irreversible. Francisco Mendonça quotes:

The prominent tone in the most diverse scientific

events of the last decades is related to the elevation
of the concentration, and consequent alteration in the
natural balance, of the gases of heating of the
atmosphere. It is believed that the main responsibility
for these changes is man, since industrial activity has
changed the energy base and intensified the
consumption of fossil fuels; in principle mineral coal
(initial and median phase of the industrial era) and
later petroleum (middle and advanced phase of the
industrial era).

Another important human practice that contributes too much to global

warming is the issue of forest deforestation, which has the function of tempering
the climate through the control of humidity, and with the increasingly frequent
loss of forests, this storage becomes impracticable. In addition to the pollution
of the seas and oceans, they also harm those that may be alternatives to
warming, such as algae and phytoplankton, contributing to the reduction of
carbon dioxide and the emission of oxygen into the atmosphere.

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 Still in his speech on anthropic actions that contribute to global warming,
Mendonça complements:

The consumption of mineral coal in the nineteenth century

was 15 million tons, reached 132 million tons in 1860,
reaching at the end of the nineteenth century 700 million
tons. However, in the twentieth century, coal loses
importance in the face of the expansion in consumption of
petroleum products. It is possible to see a clear increase
in petroleum consumption by comparing its production
figures: in 1890 it was 10 million tons, reaching 2,286
million tons in the 1970s. The burning of these fuels
(United States, Europe, Japan and industrialized
countries are among those where emissions are the most
important) has released into the atmosphere a large
volume of carbon trapped on the planet's surface over
geological ages.

The UN-backed report on climate change says, "Human influence has

been detected in warming the atmosphere and ocean, in changes in the global
water cycle, in snow and ice reductions, in global sea-level rise and in changes
in some extreme weather events."

3. Effects of intensification of global warming

Recent data presented by the IPCC point to an increase of 1.4 ° C to 5.8

° C, at worst, in the average temperature of the planet, for the years between
1990 to 2100. This can lead to numerous effects such as increase in the mid
and high latitude regions, causing typhoons, hurricanes, cyclones, besides what
is already possible to be observed, the melting of the polar caps. However,
reducing rainfall in regions with low latitudes may cause desertification, turning
forests into deserts or savannas. Franciso Mendonça explains in his article:

Variations in precipitation and evapotranspiration will

affect the distribution of water on the planet in a
differentiated way. Some regions will have increased their
water volumes and thus intensified phenomena such as
torrential rains followed by floods, landslides, mass

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 movements and soil erosion. Sediments from increased
erosion potential, for example, could compromise potable
water deposits, while in other regions there will be a
reduction in the rainfall regime, making the soil arid,
making certain agricultural activities unviable, etc.

The melting glaciers of the planet's poles have been the main culprit in
the increase in the level of ocean water that has been affecting and killing the
lives of animal species living in these regions.

Some studies indicate that at best, the increase in ocean water levels
tends to be 0.09 to 2.00 meters (which would be at worst) between 1990 and
2100, also resulting in flooding of several coastal cities in the world , and may
cause islands and some countries to disappear.

In agriculture, warming and rainfall variability could result in a decline in

world food production, as all these factors will require changes in irrigation,
fertilization, crop selection and pest control systems, which will require high
investments and will bring some problems for small producers with little capital.
We can have millions of people starving, especially in the poorest areas of the
planet.

The Director-General of the World Bank, Kristalina Georgieva warns that

“the rise of the oceans triggered by the melting of the poles, the destruction
caused by storms and droughts will force entire communities to move to regions
where survival is more feasible.”

It is estimated that up to 17 million people will migrate within their own

country, especially in Mexico and Central America, due to storms and drought
that must occur in the region. Already worldwide, the number of people who will
need to leave their homes and look for a new place to live will reach, according
to the calculations of the international organization, 143 million people.

The heat waves have reached several regions and caused a

considerable number of deaths. The record high temperatures are becoming
frequent, with heat waves up to 40 degrees Celsius during the European

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summer. South Asia in 2015 had 3,400 dead in the cities of Karachi, Pakistan,
and Kolkata, India, where temperatures surpassed 48 ° C.

Intensified heat increases the risks of various diseases such as allergies,

infections and cardiorespiratory diseases, the latter caused by increased
humidity and pollution, especially in large centers. It promotes the spread of
parasites and vectors of diseases, such as mosquitoes that transmit dengue,
malaria, cholera, schistosomiasis, leishmaniasis and Japanese encephalitis,
and also contribute to the increase of cases of thermal stress and asthma
attacks.

4. Economics of Global Warming

The structures of a "global warming economy" (EAG) were launched by

the pioneer of this area of knowledge: William D. Nordhaus, Yale University. He
asked the questions that continue to guide research on the topic, such as the
level of anthropogenic CO2 emissions that will actually cause serious climate
change? What level of reduction can and should be aspirated? How much will
the resulting emissions reduction program cost? How can emissions trading be
negotiated among so many nations and with such diverse interests?
(NORDHAUS, 1977).

Subsequently, it launched forecasts on the future path of CO2 emissions

(AUBUBEL & NORDHAUS, 1983); and to list the different policies available to
address the threat of global warming (NORDHAUS, 1990b).

José Eli da Veiga and Petterson Molina Vale state in their article that:

More broadly, what we are looking for are three

responses: acceptable greenhouse gas emissions,
reasonable income distribution (by taxation and / or
emission allowance trading), and efficient allocation of
benefits. The international response since 1997 is simply
to impose quantitative limits on emissions with a cap-and-
trade market. This is the standard of the Kyoto Protocol,
which established for the most industrialized countries
emission ceilings in 2008-2012. In practice, it intended to

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 induce reductions of at most 8% for the period 1990-2010.
If fulfilled, these countries would have an average
reduction of 5.2% in two decades.

The European Union has created a carbon market for activities that emit
carbon dioxide. The government requires that each ton of emission corresponds
to a permit and at the same time determines how many permits are available to
these large emitters. As a tax, this scheme raises the price of fossil energy
sources, while minimizing the costs of reducing emissions. In addition, the cap-
and-trade scheme could generate funds for the government, provided the
decision was made to auction the permits.

It is possible to emphasize that the main difference between the two

approaches, taxation and cap-and-trade is in the anticipation of the results.
Veiga and Molina Vale emphasize this difference:

Taxation allows costs to be known from the outset,

without anticipating the final volume of emissions. In with
a cap-and-trade program, such volume will be pre-
established and will coincide with the outcome if there is
enforcement capacity, but the costs will be uncertain.

They further complement that:

For the conventional microeconomic theory of

externalities, quantitative regulation tends to be less
efficient than taxation, since it signals the agents'
decisions through the market, thus producing greater
allocative efficiency. In the case of global warming, it is
argued that a harmonized tax on carbon emissions would
be more efficient for a number of reasons: it has more
flexibility to adapt to uncertainty; drastically reduces
transaction costs; avoids the problem of hitchhiking; and
raises resources for investment in mitigation and
adaptation (NORDHAUS, 2006).

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 It is necessary to emphasize that these two approaches have not yet
been decided, and that the American and British parliamentarians are divided
between the two methods.

In Brazil, a study "Economics of Climate Change in Brazil" predicts that it

may lose around R $ 3.6 trillion of its GDP by 2050 due to the impacts caused
by global warming. The report analyzes the impacts of climate change on the
country's development, with macroeconomic, regional and sectorial
perspectives, as well as recommendations for adaptation, mitigation and priority
actions.

Developed by scientists from leading research institutions in the country,

it is unprecedented and was inspired by the Stern Report, UK. It sought to
economically analyze the problem of climate change at the global level. They
started from climatic projections up to 2050, such as temperature and
hydrological flow, and later the economic impacts were interpreted.

The study also predicts that the Amazônia and the Northeast will be the
Brazilian regions that will be most adversely affected by global warming. The
Amazônia can have a warming of 8ºC until 2100. With this scenario, 40% of the
forest cover in the south-southeast-east region of the Amazônia could be
replaced by savannah.

In the Northeast, rainfall would decrease by about 2.5 mm per day,

causing a sharp reduction in the flow of the main hydrographic basins, in
addition to energy generation having a reduction of around 30%. As a
consequence of the lack of rainfall, the Northeast can still have large agricultural
losses, and also reduce the capacity of cattle herders by 25%.

Considering the worst sea-rise scenario, the estimate of material values

at risk along the Brazilian coast is R $ 136 billion to R $ 207.5 billion. To try to
change the perspective of this situation, the document suggests the investment
of R $ 3.72 billion by 2050, in research and public policies to predict and contain
the advance of the sea.

Clarissa Sbruzzi concludes in her article that:

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 According to a report from the World Summit on
Sustainable Development, known as Rio + 1016, in Brazil,
global warming could harm crops like apples, grapes or wheat,
which are important in temperate or cold states. Even if they
can adapt to other conditions, it would require time and money.
This reasoning applies in a general way: contrary to what is
usually imagined, the heat caused by the greenhouse effect
need not be an incorrigible and definitive catastrophe. But if
there is not a great and rapid effort to reduce the emission of
the polluting gases, these can cause deep social disorders. And
the longer the solutions take to happen, the greater the
damage.

5. Global warming policy - Treaty of Paris

International cooperation involves political decisions that carry great

weight, since each country has the most differentiated interests in the fight
against climate change, and the combination of these interests almost always
leaves the economic arguments in the background. As a result, the Kyoto
Protocol's goal of making developed countries committed to reducing emissions
of greenhouse gases to alleviate the impacts of global warming will not be
achieved in the way their creators have imagined.

José Eli da Veiga and Petterson Molina Vale, professor and student of
FEA USP, respectively, state in their article:

The problem is much more serious because the

institutional architecture of the agreement was mistakenly
copied from the Montreal Protocol on the ozone layer and from
earlier schemes to combat acid rain. In these two cases, the
challenge was to create incentives for the adoption of
technological innovations already available. In addition, the few
actors involved, whether governments or affected companies,
had only to gain from the cap-and-trade cap-emission scheme.
This proposal, however, does not work when scientific
breakthroughs are still pending, and when there are 170
countries that need to reach an agreement that encourages the
emergence of innovations.

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 What influences the institutional process of combating global warming is
the assumption that the indispensable technological solutions already exist. The
best way forward is to impose maximum national greenhouse gas targets,
counterbalanced by building a carbon market based on the CDM, The Clean
Development Mechanism, one of the easing mechanisms created by the Kyoto
Protocol to assist the process of reducing emissions of greenhouse gases or
carbon capture.

For the possibility of stabilization in the next 50 years without impeding

economic growth, it would be necessary to adopt a set of measures, which José
Veiga and Petterson Vale emphasize:

(1) In transport, in addition to increasing use of biofuels,

petroleum derivatives must also be replaced by hydrogen
obtained by electrolysis. To achieve the indispensable clean
electricity, they propose a wide range of 20 initiatives. (2)
Replace conventional coal and gas plants with installations
capable of capturing carbon and pumping it to the subsoil. (3)
Extend the use of indirect renewable sources such as hydro
and wind as well as direct ones such as photovoltaic cells and
mirrors that heat fluids and drive turbines. (4) Explore the
geothermal source. (5) Increase the use of nuclear, provided
that policy solutions for the disposal of radioactive waste, safe
operation of new reactors, and the risk of military use arise. (6)
And all this accompanied by three fundamental prerequisites:
drastic reduction of the consumption of electricity allowed by the
modernization of residences and of commercial and industrial
establishments; reduction of the birth rate that will allow us to
reach 2050 with a world population of 8 billion, instead of 9; and
end of deforestation.

The most obvious is the use of tidal and wave energy, almost ready for
the market. There are three other alternatives as a second option: use of high
altitude winds, solar nanobateries, and projected microbes. And fifth, on the
waiting list, are space solar and nuclear fusion.

Another way to reduce global warming was discussed in 2015 at the

UNFCCC's 21st Conference of Parties (COP21) in Paris, where a new
agreement was adopted with the central objective of strengthening the global

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response to the threat of climate change and strengthening the ability of
countries to deal with the impacts of these changes, which became known as
the Treaty of Paris.

It was approved by the 195 participating countries that have committed to

reduce greenhouse gas emissions. It is summed up to keep the Earth's average
temperature below 2 ° C above pre-industrial levels. In addition to efforts to limit
the temperature rise to 1.5 ° C above pre-industrial levels.

Developed countries have also pledged to provide financial benefits to

the poorest countries so that they can cope with climate change.

Brazil has concluded its ratification of the Paris Agreement on September

12, 2016. The Brazilian targets are reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 37%
below 2005 levels by 2025; in succession, reduce greenhouse gas emissions
by 43% below 2005 levels by 2030.

Lana Magalhães, Biology Teacher, cites the presents a brief explanation

of some previous treaties, also referring to global warming:

Stockholm Conference: was held between June 5 and

16, 1972 in Stockholm, Sweden.

It was the first United Nations Conference on the Human

Environment held by the United Nations. It represented the
beginning of the international discussions on the Environment.

Montreal Protocol: an international agreement, signed

in 1987. Its purpose is to reduce the emission of CFC gases,
responsible for the destruction of the ozone layer.

Rio-92: occurred after 20 years of the Stockholm

Conference. Also called the United Nations Conference on
Environment and Development, the event was held in Rio de
Janeiro in 1992.

At the occasion, 172 countries met to assess the main

environmental problems and discuss goals to reduce the
impacts they generate.

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 As a result, Agenda 21 emerged, involving the social,
economic, cultural, educational and environmental dimensions
of the population.

The objective was to lead to sustainable development

as a way to improve people's quality of life and the
environment.

Kyoto Protocol: an international treaty signed in 1997 in

Kyoto, Japan. The goal was to raise awareness of the rising
global warming and global warming.

It was important because it was the first agreement to

establish targets for reducing greenhouse gases. The Kyoto
Protocol did not really come into effect until 2005 at COP 11 in
Montreal.

Rio + 10: occurred between August 26 and September

4, 2002, in Johannesburg, South Africa.

The objective of the meeting was to evaluate the

progress of the Rio-92 agreements. The event also served to
reinforce the need and urgency to meet what was agreed during
Rio-92.

COP 15: the Conference of the Parties on Climate was

held by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate
Change. The event took place from 7 to 18 December 2009 in
Copenhagen, Denmark.

The purpose of the meeting was to discuss alternatives

to tackle global warming.

The scenario pointed out by scientists is that the Earth's

temperature could not rise by more than 2 ° C from pre-
industrial levels by the end of the century.

Otherwise, an irreversible point of climate change will

be reached.

Rio + 20: also called the United Nations Conference on

Sustainable Development, took place between June 13 and 22,
2012, in Rio de Janeiro.

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 It was one of the largest events ever held by the UN
and was attended by more than 180 countries.

It aimed to strengthen and ensure sustainable

development among the countries involved. A much discussed
topic was the Green Economy, which means economic growth
combined with the reduction of the emission of polluting gases.

The latest event on the Treaty of Paris was withdrawn from the United
States, announced in June 2017, received with great concern, as the United
States is one of the biggest polluters on the planet.

Donald Trump has vowed to negotiate a return or a new climate agreement on

terms he considers fairer to Americans, claiming that the current document
disadvantages the US to benefit other countries and has promised to halt the
implementation of anything legally possible. "We're going out, but we're going to
start negotiating and we'll see if we can make a fair deal, if we can, great, if we
cannot, that's fine," he said.

The national portal G1 states:

Trump's decision could have serious consequences for the

fulfillment of treaty obligations by other countries and more
generally on the planet's climate condition, considering that
global warming is a phenomenon that is already occurring and
that all years in the fight against this phenomenon increase the
risk of causing irreversible effects on the climate.

According to surveys conducted by various universities and

research centers in different countries around the world, the US
exit from the Paris Agreement would add 3 billion tons of carbon
dioxide (CO2) emitted annually into the atmosphere, increasing
the Earth's temperature by 0, 1º C and 0,3º C until the end of
the century.

Concern about the exit of the United States is at the global level, other
countries could be influenced to reduce or mitigate their international
commitments on the climate issue or even abandon the agreement altogether.

The decision to withdraw from the agreement could signal Trump's intent to cut
other laws limiting the production of polluting gases in the US signed by his

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predecessor Obama. However, the US exit from the Paris Accord would not be
immediate. The process could take up to three years, as well as established in
the agreement itself, with various legal and diplomatic battles.

6. Alternative solutions

Geoengineering studies the manipulation of Earth's climate through

technology. It has been used on a small scale for many decades, but today it
has been highlighted by the possibility of creating solutions for global warming.
There are two ways of matter contributing to the control of the planet's
temperature: through Solar Radiation Management (SRM) and Carbon Dioxide
Removal (CDR).

The Pensamento Verde portal explains about these techniques:

The SRM seeks to reflect the solar rays so they return

to space before reaching the surface of the Earth. CDR is a
slower method, but considered more comprehensive since
instead of fighting the effects, it will act in the cause of the
problem. The most studied idea today is the fertilization of the
oceans, which is part of the carbon removal initiatives. This
method is controversial. Many environmentalists oppose the
use of iron to increase the growth of phytoplankton that can
absorb CO2, as suggested by geoengineering.

To minimize the effects of global warming, geoengineering proposes

different solutions from its studies:

Atmospheric aerosols: consists of spreading sulfur in the upper layers of the

atmosphere, as happens when a volcano erupts. That way, the sun's rays
would reflect before reaching the surface of the Earth.

Improvement of Albedo: method that seeks to increase the reflectivity of solar

rays, but this time in the clouds.

Space Reflectors: Designed to block out the sunlight before it reaches our
planet.

Reforestation: the idea is to plant trees on a global scale in order to promote the
sequestration of CO² and the natural cleaning of the air.

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Bio carbon: the technique aims to burn biomass and bury so that the carbon is
trapped in the soil.

Capture in ambient air: Look for the production of machines that could remove
CO² from the air and store it in other places.

Improved weathering: this technique would expose large amounts of minerals

capable of interacting with CO² by capturing or chemically transforming it. The
resulting compounds would be stored in the oceans or soil.

Increased alkalinity of the oceans: idea is similar to weathering, but this time,
ores like limestone and calcium silicate would be dispersed in the seas to
increase carbon absorption, also contributing to control ocean acidification.

CONCLUSION

The issue of the level of emissions control seems to be better routed than that
of costs, with most economists agreeing that the imposition of a tax on carbon
emissions is much more efficient than a cap- and-trade, "in the style of the
current Kyoto Protocol. And this agreement extends to the fact that a globally
harmonized tax is politically infeasible, so that a hybrid scheme, called "cap-
and-tax," may be the most efficient strategy.

If the IPCC is indeed right, every country in the world, starting with the richest
and most powerful, should tackle the problem as if they were facing a major
war, instead of barring ridiculous emission limitation targets. The ethical stances
on which the political proposals depend are essentially two: what is the risk that
can be assumed about the temperature rise in this century in relation to the pre-
industrial level? What is the cost of combating warming that can be left to future
generations?

Of particular note are Stern's positions on high investment in emission

mitigation that should start urgently to reduce the risk of catastrophes, and
Nordhaus's, on a "ramp" of investments, starting at a low level and growing
linearly over time. The controversy between these authors' cost estimates will
endure as long as the ethical dilemmas of intergenerational justice are not
resolved. However, if the precautionary principle prevails, it will be unacceptable

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to adopt limits in excess of 450 ppm for the concentration of carbon dioxide, or
to increase by more than 2 ° C by 2100 compared to 1900.

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