2021 Sep Strategy EN

Strategy report | Sep 2021
VIETNAM ECONOMY AND STOCK MARKET

Struggling with prolonged lockdown
Research team
Analysts who prepared this report are registered as research analysts in Korea but not in any other jurisdiction, including the US
PLEASE SEE ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES & DISCLAIMERS IN APPENDIX 1 AT THE END OF REPORT.
Contents
I. Vietnam economy 8M21 review and economic outlook update 3

II. Vietnam stock market review 19
III. Vietnam stock market prospect 27
IV. Sector outlook 34
V. Stock recommendations 40
2 | Vietnam focus: Strategy Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research

I. Vietnam economy 8M21 review and economic outlook update
❑ In August, Vietnam’s economic indicators obviously reflected the negative impact of the prolonged
pandemic, including strict social distancing measures across many provinces and cities. Specifically,
exports recorded negative year-on-year growth, industrial production declined for a second
consecutive month, retail sales and consumption suffered the greatest deceleration in history, and
public investment slowed. On a positive note, registered FDI maintained double-digit growth, while
inflation remained stable in the first eight months of the year.
❑ According to our estimates, Vietnam's 2021 GDP (in the base-case scenario, whereby the pandemic
is contained in September) should reach 5.9%. In the worst-case scenario, if the pandemic is
successfully controlled and the economy reopens in October, GDP growth is expected to reach
5.1%. The recovery momentum of the economy depends greatly on the speed of pandemic
containment, as well as on the deployment of vaccines in Vietnam and its major trading partners.
We believe that when vaccination rates in pandemic hot spots reach a high level and the pandemic
is under control, the economy should gradually reopen and growth engines will gradually regain
momentum, including: 1) an expected boost in FDI inflows, as Vietnam remains an attractive
destination for the global wave of FDI; 2) strengthened external demand, thanks to accelerating
COVID-19 vaccinations and continued stimulus policies in major trading partners, resulting in
double-digit growth in exports and improving industrial production; and 3) the government’s
promotion of public investment in the last months of 2021 and in 2022. On a positive note, the
government has been actively implementing monetary and fiscal policies to support individuals
and businesses during the pandemic, and inflation and exchange rates have remained stable.
❑ The main risks to Vietnam's growth prospects include: 1) a resurgence of the COVID-19 pandemic
on a global scale, due to an increased number of variants; 2) a slow vaccination rollout preventing a
robust recovery; and 3) a long wait until Travel and Aviation return to pre-pandemic levels, as weak
consumption slows the overall growth momentum of the economy.
Vietnam macroeconomic dashboard
Graph
Indicators Aug-20 Sep-20 Oct-20 Nov-20 Dec-20 J an-21 Feb-21 Mar-21 Apr-21 May-21 J un-21 J ul-21 Aug-21
(From J an-2020 to Aug-2021)
COVID-19 trackers
Global new COVID-19 cases per million 1,014 1,091 1,556 2,215 2,585 2,498 1,431 1,888 2,887 2,480 1,456 1,989 2,444
Total global vaccination per hundred 0.12 1.28 3.28 7.71 14.6 24.91 39.54 52.17 67.22
New COVID-19 cases per million in Vietnam 5.0 0.5 0.9 1.7 1.2 3.6 6.5 1.6 3.3 46.3 98.8 1,354 3,050
Total vaccination per hundred in Vietnam 0.05 0.53 1.13 3.88 5.68 17.51
Vietnam's stringency index 77.3 72.2 55.6 45.6 53.5 58.5 70.9 61.6 54.0 73.7 77.3 78.3 76.3
Economic indicators
Index of Industrial production (monthly, % YoY) -0.6 3.8 5.4 9.2 9.5 22.2 -7.2 3.9 24.1 11.6 6.8 2.2 -7.4
PMI (point) 45.7 52.2 51.8 49.9 51.7 51.3 51.6 53.6 54.7 53.1 44.1 45.1 40.2
Retail sales growth (cumulative, % YoY) 0.0 0.7 1.3 2.0 2.6 6.4 5.5 5.1 10.0 7.6 4.9 0.7 -4.7
International traveller growth (monthly, % YoY) -98.9 -99.1 -99.1 -99.0 -99.0 -98.0 -97.0 -96.0 -25.8 -40.6 -18.0 -46.4 -43.0
FDI disbursement (monthly, % YoY) -5.1 -3.0 -2.5 -2.4 -2.0 -5.6 2.0 5.1 6.8 6.7 6.8 3.8 2.0
FDI registration (monthly, % YoY) 11.4 -1.7 -4.9 -3.2 -6.6 -62.9 -12.9 40.9 13.7 16.4 12.4 3.5 11.6
Export growth (cumulative, % YoY) 2.4 4.1 5.0 5.5 7.0 55.8 24.7 24.0 29.8 30.9 28.9 26.2 21.2
Import growth (cumulative, % YoY) -2.4 -0.8 0.2 1.8 3.7 42.3 26.4 26.9 32.3 36.1 35.8 35.6 33.8
Trade balance (monthly, US$bn) 5.0 3.0 2.9 0.5 -0.3 2.1 -0.5 1.2 -1.2 -2.1 -0.5 -1.2 -1.3
CPI (% YoY) 3.18 2.98 2.47 1.48 0.19 -0.97 0.70 1.16 2.70 2.90 2.41 2.64 2.82
Credit growth (% YoY) 10.1 10.2 10.3 11.0 12.2 12.9 12.7 14.0 15.2 15.4 15.2
M2 growth (% YoY) 13.7 13.9 14.0 14.2 14.5 13.4 14.6 14.8 15.6 14.9 13.8
VND/US$ (% MoM) 0.0 0.1 0.0 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.2 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.19 -0.71
Stock market
VNIndex return (% MoM) 10.4 2.7 2.2 8.4 10.0 -4.3 10.6 2.0 4.0 7.2 6.1 -7.0 1.6
VN-Index's 20-day volatility 8.9 9.3 14.4 12.1 15.7 41.0 46.4 12.3 21.2 12.8 18.4 33.5 19.1
Source: GSO, Bloomberg, Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research compilation

Note: Red spots in graphs indicate negative data

I.1 – Downward revision of Vietnam’s projected GDP growth in 2021
❑ Many organizations simultaneously lowered Vietnam's 2021 GDP growth forecasts to within a range of 3.5%–6.5%,
Many organizations
due to the prolonged fourth COVID-19 wave. Vietnam’s Covid Resilience Index (an index that combines three factors:
simultaneously reopening of the economy, Covid status, and quality of life) has declined sharply since the fourth Covid wave, and
lowered their Vietnam is currently ranked 50th out of the 53 economies surveyed by Bloomberg. However, those same
organizations kept Vietnam’s GDP recovery in the range of 6.0%−7.5% in 2022, when it is expected that the
forecasts for
pandemic will be better controlled and Vietnam’s vaccination rate will exceed 70%.
Vietnam's 2021 GDP ❑ According to our estimates, Vietnam's 2021 GDP (in the base-case scenario, whereby the pandemic is contained in
growth September) should reach 5.9%. In the worst-case scenario, if the pandemic is controlled and the economy reopens
in October, GDP growth is expected to reach 5.1%.
Downward revision of Vietnam’s GDP growth forecast in 2021 Bloomberg’s Covid Resilience Ranking
GDP growth forecast %p change compared

Organization (% YoY) with previous update
2021F 2022F 2021F 2022F
Deutsche Bank 6.5 7.5 -0.5 0.3
Fitch Ratings 6.0 7.2 -1.0 0.1
ADB 5.8 7.0 -0.9 0.0
Fitch Solutions 5.8 6.6 0.0 0.0
WB 4.8 6.5 -1.8 0.0
Standard Chartered 4.7 7.0 -1.8 -0.3
Moody's 3.6 6.0 -3.7 -0.1
UBS 3.5 6.0 -1.6 -0.3
Source: Deutsche Bank, Fitch Ratings, ADB, Fitch Solutions, WB, Standard Chartered, Moody’s, UBS Source: Bloomberg.com/graphics/covid-resilience-ranking

I.2 – COVID-19 vaccinations
❑ Reopening of the economy and returning to a new normalcy depends greatly on how quickly COVID-19 vaccines are
Vietnam is distributed. Vietnam has thus made efforts to promote the vaccination campaign against COVID-19, especially in
accelerating pandemic hot spots in key economic provinces/cities, such as Ho Chi Minh City, Hanoi, and Binh Duong. On July 10, 2021,
Vietnam officially launched its largest-ever vaccination campaign, with the goal of injecting about 75mn people with
COVID-19
150mn injections in 2H21 and early-2022. The campaign aims to vaccinate over 70% of the population against COVID-19
vaccinations by the end of 1Q22.
❑ We expect Vietnam to achieve herd immunity by early-2022 at the earliest.
Vietnam is accelerating COVID-19 vaccinations COVID-19 vaccination rate (at least one dose, those over 18) by locality
(%) People vaccinated per hundred People fully vaccinated per hundred
(%)
17.51
18 100
16 90
14 80
12 70
10 60
50
8
40
6
30
4 2.48
20
2
10
0
0
2021-03-30
2021-05-11
2021-06-22
2021-08-03
2021-03-12
2021-03-18
2021-03-24
2021-04-05
2021-04-11
2021-04-17
2021-04-23
2021-04-29
2021-05-05
2021-05-17
2021-05-23
2021-05-29
2021-06-04
2021-06-10
2021-06-16
2021-06-28
2021-07-04
2021-07-10
2021-07-16
2021-07-22
2021-07-28
2021-08-09
2021-08-15
2021-08-21
2021-08-27
Source: Our World in Data, Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research compilation, updated as of 08/30/2021
Source: National Center for Technology on Covid-19 Prevention and Control. updated as of 09/02/2021

I.3 – Industrial production
❑ The index of industrial production (IIP) in August decreased by 7.4% YoY, the sharpest decline since the first COVID-19 outbreak
August IIP
in April 2020 (-10.5% YoY). In 8M21, IIP increased by 5.6% YoY, with a gradual narrowing of growth momentum for four
declined the consecutive months, albeit still higher than the 2.2% YoY growth rate of 8M20.
most since April ❑ Vietnam’s Manufacturing PMI plummeted to 40.2 points in August, the worst deterioration in the health of the manufacturing
2020 sector since April 2020. Social distancing and travel restrictions have resulted in the temporary closure of some businesses,
causing accelerated declines in output, new orders, purchasing, and employment.
❑ We believe that production will continue to be affected this September, as strict social distancing measures have exerted a
negative impact on industrial production in key cities/localities. However, with the government’s plan to achieve control over
the COVID-19 pandemic by September 15 in Ho Chi Minh City, and early September in other localities, along with promotion of
COVID-19 vaccinations, industrial production is expected to gradually regain its growth momentum in 4Q21.
Monthly IIP Manufacturing IIP in 8M21
IIP Manufacturing and processing IIP Basic metals 30.4

(% YoY)
Motor vehicles 23.1
35 Machinery and equipment 9.2
Textiles 8.2
30
Furniture 8.2
25 Leather and related products 7.9
Computer, electronic, optical products 7.8
20 Manufacturing 7.0
15 Coke, refined petroleum products 6.0
Clothes 5.9
10 Manufacture of wood 5.2
Paper and paper products 4.2
5
Electrical equipment 3.3
0 Beverages 1.6
Food products 1.2
-5
Rubber and plastic products 0.5
Seasonal effects
-10 Seasonal effects Chemicals and chemical products 0.1
Printing, recorded media reproduction -1.0
-15 Tobacco -1.7
Dec 19
Dec 20
Sep 19
Sep 20
Aug 19
Nov 19
Aug 20
Nov 20
Aug 21
Feb 19
Apr 19
Jun 19
Oct 19
Feb 20
Apr 20
Jun 20
Feb 21
Oct 20
Apr 21
Jun 21
Jan 19
Mar 19
May 19
Jul 19
Jan 20
Mar 20
May 20
Jul 20
Jan 21
Mar 21
May 21
Jul 21
Pharmaceuticals -13.9
(% YoY)
Source: GSO, Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research compilation

I.3 – Industrial production (cont’d.)
Vietnam’s PMI fell more steeply in August
(Point) PMI 3-month average PMI
60
55
50
45
40
35
30
Aug 11 Feb 12 Aug 12 Feb 13 Aug 13 Feb 14 Aug 14 Feb 15 Aug 15 Feb 16 Aug 16 Feb 17 Aug 17 Feb 18 Aug 18 Feb 19 Aug 19 Feb 20 Aug 20 Feb 21 Aug 21
Manufacturing PMI
Region/Country Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20 Oct-20 Nov-20 Dec-20 Jan-21 Feb-21 Mar-21 Apr-21 May-21 Jun-21 Jul-21 Aug-21
Global 50.3 47.1 47.3 39.6 42.4 48.0 50.6 51.8 52.4 53.1 53.8 53.8 53.6 53.9 55.0 55.8 56.0 55.5 55.5 54.1
Euro Area 47.9 49.2 44.5 33.4 39.4 47.4 51.8 51.7 53.7 54.8 53.8 55.2 54.8 57.9 62.5 62.9 63.1 63.4 62.6 61.4
US 51.9 50.7 48.5 36.1 39.8 49.8 50.9 53.1 53.2 53.4 56.7 57.1 59.2 58.6 59.1 60.5 62.1 62.1 63.1 61.1
UK 50.0 51.7 47.8 32.6 40.7 50.1 53.3 55.2 54.1 53.7 55.6 57.5 54.1 55.1 58.9 60.7 65.6 63.9 60.4 60.3
Emerging Markets 51.0 44.6 49.1 42.7 45.4 49.6 51.4 52.5 52.8 53.4 53.9 52.8 52.1 51.5 51.3 52.2 52.0 51.3 51.3 49.6
China 51.1 40.3 50.1 49.4 50.7 51.2 52.8 53.1 53.0 53.6 54.9 53.0 51.5 50.9 50.6 51.9 52.0 51.3 50.3 49.2
Japan 48.8 47.8 44.8 41.9 38.4 40.1 45.2 47.2 47.7 48.7 49.0 50.0 49.8 51.4 52.7 53.6 53.0 52.4 53.0 52.7
South Korea 49.8 48.7 44.2 41.6 41.3 43.4 46.9 48.5 49.8 51.2 52.9 52.9 53.2 55.3 55.3 54.6 53.7 53.9 53.0 51.2
Vietnam 50.6 49 41.9 32.7 42.7 51.1 47.6 45.7 52.2 51.8 49.9 51.7 51.3 51.6 53.6 54.7 53.1 44.1 45.1 40.2
ASEAN 49.8 50.2 43.4 30.7 35.5 43.7 46.5 49.0 48.3 48.6 50.0 50.8 51.4 49.7 50.8 51.9 51.8 49.0 44.6 44.5
Source: Bloomberg, Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research compilation

I.4 – Exports and imports
❑ In August, exports continued to be affected by the COVID-19 wave, falling 5.4% YoY to reach an estimated US$26.2bn, while
Trade deficit imports increased by 21.2% YoY to US$27.5bn. The trade balance recorded a deficit for the fifth consecutive month to an
widened in 8M21 estimated US$1.3bn in August.
❑ In 8M21, with the growth rate of imports much higher than that of exports, Vietnam recorded an estimated trade deficit of
US$3.71bn, with exports reaching an estimated US$212.55bn (+21.2% YoY) and imports US$216.26bn (+33.8% YoY).
Exports, imports, and trade balance Growth rates of exports and imports
Trade balance (L) (% YoY) Exports Imports

(US$mn) (US$mn)
6,000 35,000
Exports ( R)
60
5,000 Imports ( R)
30,000
50
4,000
25,000
3,000 40
2,000 20,000 30
1,000 15,000 20
0
10,000 10
-1,000
0
5,000
-2,000
-10
-3,000 0
Dec 20
Aug 20
Sep 20
Oct 20
Nov 20
Aug 21
Apr 20
Jun 20
Apr 21
Jun 21
Feb 20
Feb 21
Mar 20
May 20
Mar 21
May 21
Jul 20
Jan 21
Jul 21
-20
Jan 20
Feb Mar
20 Apr
20 May
20 Jun
20 20
Jul 20
AugSep
20 Oct
20 Nov
20 Dec
20 Jan
20 Feb
21 Mar
21 Apr
21 May
21 Jun
21 21
Jul 21
Aug 21
Source: GSO Source: GSO

I.4 – Exports and imports (cont’d.)
❑ We believe that export growth will gradually regain momentum, thanks to the following:
Export growth
• Gradual recovery in the production activities of industrial parks, once they are focused on pandemic prevention and
expected to are prioritized for vaccinations.
gradually regain • Gradual improvement in external demand, driven by the rollout of COVID-19 vaccines and Vietnam’s deepening
participation in the global supply chain. The PMIs of Vietnam’s major trading partners have rebounded above 50
momentum
points, signaling improving global demand.
• Key trade agreements officially coming into force. We expect Vietnam’s two key markets — the US and China — as well
as the new driver — the EU — to continue to boost Vietnam’s exports in 2021 and coming years.
Growth of Vietnam’s monthly exports by country Growth of Vietnam’s monthly exports by product
Electronic goods, computers, and their parts
US China EU ASEAN South Korea Japan
(% YoY) Phones and their parts
(% YoY)
Machinery, instrument, accessory
100
Textiles and garments
100 Shoes and sandals
75 Wood and products
75
50 50
25
25
0
0 -25
-50
-25
-75
-50 -100
Jan 20
Feb Mar
20 Apr
20 May
20 Jun
20 20
Jul 20
Aug Sep
20 Oct
20 Nov
20 Dec
20 20
Jan 21
Feb Mar
21 Apr
21 May
21 Jun
21 21
Jul 21
Aug 21 Jan 20
Feb Mar
20 Apr
20 May
20 Jun
20 20
Jul 20
Aug Sep
20 Oct
20 Nov
20 Dec
20 20
Jan 21
Feb Mar
21 Apr
21 May
21 Jun
21 21
Jul 21
Aug 21
Source: GSO, Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research compilation Source: GSO, Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research compilation

I.5 – Public investment
❑ The prolonged COVID-19 resurgence in most localities has seriously affected the implementation and disbursement
Public disbursement progress of public investment projects in recent months. In addition, an increase in material prices, especially
slowed construction steel, affected resource mobilization and construction progress of contractors. In 7M21, public
disbursement is estimated to reach VND199tr, fulfilling only 33.8% of the annual plan.
❑ Resolution 63/NQ-CP, dated June 29, 2021, aims to strive for the disbursement rate of state budget investment capital
in 2021 to reach 95%−100% of the plan assigned by the Prime Minister; of this, disbursement should reach at least
60% of the plan by end-3Q21. In addition, the government issued Directive No. 13/CT-TTg on speeding up and
improving the quality of the formulation of the 2021−2025 medium-term public investment plan. We expect public
investment disbursement to be more robust in 2H21 and 2022, becoming a driving force for economic growth.
Public disbursement slowed in 7M21 Directives/Decisions to promote public investment
Plan (L) Disbursement (L)

(VNDtr) Directives/Decisions Content
Disbursement growth (L) % Disbursement/Plan (R) (%)
700 80
Road network development planning period
Decision No. 1454/QD-TTg
2021–2030, vision to 2050
600
60
The goal is to strive for the disbursement rate
500 of state budget investment capital in 2021 to
40
Resolution 63/NQ-CP
dated June 29, 2021 reach 95%−100% of the plan assigned by the
400 Prime Minister
20
300 Speeding up the progress and improving the
Directive No. 13/CT-TTg quality of construction of the Mid-term Public
0
200
Investment Plan 2021–2025
100
-20 Directive No. 01/CT-BXD Speeding up the implementation and
of the Ministry of disbursement of the 2021 public investment
Construction capital plan
0 -40
2017 2018 2019 2020 7M21
Source: MoF, updated as of 07/31/2021 Source: Mirae Asset compilation

I.6 – FDI
Registered FDI ❑ In 8M21, disbursed FDI reached US$11.58bn (+2% YoY), narrowing compared with the increase in 7M21 (+3.8% YoY).
Meanwhile, total registered FDI capital reached US$16.31bn, up 11.6% YoY, of which newly-registered FDI capital
maintained double-
reached US$11.33bn (+16.3% YoY) and additionally-registered FDI US$4.98bn (+2.3% YoY).
digit growth ❑ Newly-registered FDI maintained double-digit growth in 8M21, amid the fourth wave of the COVID-19 pandemic, with
Asian nations being the largest FDI investors in 2020 and 8M21, led by Singapore, Japan, China, and South Korea. In
the long term, Vietnam will continue to benefit from the ongoing supply-chain restructuring. We believe that the
wave of FDI into Vietnam will accelerate again, once the pandemic is successfully controlled.
FDI attraction and disbursement (2014−8M21) Some major FDI projects in 8M21
Registered FDI (L) Registered

Project Country Products
(US$mn) FDI disbursement (L) (% YoY) capital
Registered FDI growth (R) Long An 1 and 2
30,000 80 Construction of a
Thermal Power Singapore ~ US$3.1bn
thermal power plant
70 Plant project
25,000 60 O Mon 2 Thermal
Construction of a
Power Plant Japan ~ US$1.31bn
50 thermal power plant
20,000 project
40
Additionally-
LG Display Hai
30 Korea registered capital OLED screen products
15,000 Phong project
20 of US$750mn
Kraft paper, lined
10,000
10 Kraft Vina Paper
Japan US$611.4mn paper, and packaging
0 Mill project
paper
5,000 -10 Plant of Polytex Additionally- Petrochemical and
-20 Far Eastern Taiwan registered capital textile vertical
0 -30
Vietnam Co., Ltd of US$610mn integration factory
Jinko Solar PV
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Manufacturing solar
YTD photovoltaic cell
Hong Kong US$498mn panels and other
technology
electrical equipment
project
Source: GSO, updated as of 08/20/2021 Source: MPI

I.6 – FDI (cont’d.)
Registered FDI by sector in 8M21 Registered FDI by country in 8M21
1.7% 0.5% 0.4% 0.3% 0.5% 0.4% Singapore Japan South Korea China
Manufacturing, processing
2.4% Hong Kong Taiwan Netherlands Others
2.1% Production, electricity, gas, steam and air
conditioning supply
Real estate activities 1.0%
6.2% 10.2%
Wholesale and retail trade; repair of
motor vehicles and motorcycles 6.0%
Transportation and storage 33.9%
Professional, scientific and technical
8.1%
52.5% activities
Construction
33.1%
Information and communication
10.2%
Accommodation and food service
activities
Agriculture, forestry and fishery
11.9% 18.7%
Others
Registered FDI by locality in 8M21
Long An
1.5% Ho Chi Minh city
1.7% Binh Duong
11.4%
Can Tho
1.9% 21.8% Hai Phong
2.7% Ha Noi
Bac Giang
2.9% Quang Ninh
Bac Ninh
6.3% Vinh Phuc
4.0%
Tay Ninh
Dong Nai
4.5% 7.0% Hung Yen
Dak Lak
4.4% Binh Phuoc
3.6% 8.1%
Hai Duong
4.5%
3.9% 7.8% Ba Ria - Vung Tau
2.3% Others
Source: GSO, Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research compilation

I.7 – Domestic consumption
❑ Total retail sales of consumer goods and services were badly hurt in August, plunging 33.7% YoY, the steepest
August domestic
decline in history. In 8M21, total retail sales of consumer goods and services decreased by 4.7% YoY (versus -1.1%
consumption YoY in 8M20); if excluding the price factor, the decrease was 6.2% YoY.
experienced the most ❑ We expect domestic retail activities to gradually regain their growth momentum, with economic activities
returning to a normal state once the fourth pandemic wave is successfully contained, accompanied by an
severe decline in
improving consumer confidence index.
history ❑ The main risk for retail and consumer services is that the resurgence of COVID-19 could be prolonged, as this
outbreak has different sources of infection.
Retail sales and consumption services growth by sector (% YoY) Consumer Confidence Index
Retail sales and consumption services 4Q19 1Q20 2Q20 1Q21 2Q21
(% YoY) Retail sales of goods
140
20 Accommodation & Catering Services
Travel Services
10 120
0 100
-10 80
-20
60
-30
40
-40
20
-50
-60 0
-70
Jun 19Aug 19Oct 19Dec 19Feb 20Apr 20 Jun 20Aug 20Oct 20Dec 20Feb 21Apr 21 Jun 21Aug 21
Source: GSO Source: The Conference Board

I.8 – Enterprise establishment/dissolution situation
• Business registration was severely affected, especially in southern localities, with a sharp decrease in the number of
Newly-established newly established enterprises (5,761 enterprises; -57% YoY) and total registered capital (-76.5% YoY) over the same
enterprises period in August. In addition, 3,865 enterprises resumed operation, down 19.1% YoY. In 8M21, the number of
enterprises withdrawing from the labor market was 85,500 (+24.2% YoY); of these, the number of enterprises
plummeted in August
temporarily suspending business accounted for 50.5% of the total, at 43,200 enterprises. The total registered capital
added to the economy reached nearly VND2,672.8tr, down 17% YoY.
• We believe that as soon as the pandemic is contained successfully, businesses will gradually resume normal
production activities. Thus, the unemployment rate is expected to decline, helping solidify the recovery of domestic
demand.
Enterprise establishment/dissolution situation Average registered capital of newly-established enterprises (% YoY)
(% YoY)
Newly-established enterprises
200
Re-operated enterprises
(# firms)
Enterprises suspending operation for a definite time
Enterprises waiting for dissolution procedures 150
Enterprises completed dissolution procedures
100,000
-2.0% 100
-8.0%
80,000
50
60,000
+25.9% 0
+70.8%
-0.6% +24.5%
40,000 +27.9 -5.9%
% -50
20,000 +17.8%
-1.9%
-100
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug
0
20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21
8M20 8M21
Source: GSO
Source: GSO

I.9 – Exchange rate
• With the slowdown in export growth and realized FDI inflows putting pressure on the overall balance of payment,
VND appreciates thereby putting pressure on the exchange rate in August. Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index remained above 90 in
relative to US$ in 8M21. Specifically, by the end of August, the VND/US$ exchange rate decreased by 0.71% MoM, and 1.36% YTD.
• However, we still expect the VND to appreciate within a range of around 0.5% against the US dollar in 2021, thanks
August
to: 1) an expected deficit decline in the last months of 2021, once exports accelerate; 2) an expected return to
growth for FDI inflows into Vietnam, due to production shifts; 3) the SBV's flexible mechanism for regulating foreign
currency supply and demand; 4) expected minimal appreciation of the US dollar in 2021, due to large-scale
economic stimulus packages and Fed support policies; and 5) the US Treasury’s mid-April removal of Vietnam from
its list of currency manipulators and end to the tariff threat on the end-July currency-dispute truce, which should
ease pressure on the VND/US$ exchange rate.
VND/US$ exchange rate VND is relatively stable compared with other Asian currencies
(VND) GBP CNY VND PHP

Official rate (SBV) Unofficial rate Commercial banks
24,200 (End 2020 = 0%) INR MYR IDR KRW
THB JPY
12
24,000
10
23,800
8
23,600
6
23,400 4
23,200 2
0
23,000
-2
22,800
-4
22,600
01-Jan-21
16-Jan-21
31-Jan-21
15-Jul-21
30-Jul-21
14-Aug-21
29-Aug-21
15-Feb-21
01-Apr-21
16-Apr-21
15-Jun-21
30-Jun-21
02-Mar-21
17-Mar-21
01-May-21
16-May-21
31-May-21
22,400
22,200 Note: JPY = Japanese yen, PHP = Philippines peso, CNY = Chinese yuan, VND = Vietnamese
Aug 19 Dec 19 Apr 20 Aug 20 Dec 20 Apr 21 Aug 21 dong, INR = Indian rupee, KRW = Korean won, MYR = Malaysian ringgit, THB = Thailand baht,
IDR = Indonesian Rupiah
Source: FiinPro, SBV, updated 08/27/2021 Source: Bloomberg, as of 08/31/2021

I.10 – Inflation
❑ CPI increased by 2.82% YoY in August, mainly due to higher food prices on pandemic-induced goods hoarding in localities
implementing social distancing measures according to Directive No. 16/CT-TTg. Education’s share rose, due to increased
Inflation
stationery prices, while prices of medicines and medical services climbed, due to a jump in demand amid the COVID-19
remained stable
pandemic. In contrast, Transportation, Post and Telecommunications, and Culture, Entertainment and Tourism pulled the CPI
down.
❑ The 8M21 average CPI increased by 1.79% YoY, the lowest increase since 2016.
❑ We maintain our expectation that inflation will be around 4% in 2021, in light of: 1) the expected slow recovery of the Culture,
Entertainment, and Tourism segment, due to the impact of COVID-19; and 2) policies to ensure supply-demand balance and
market stability. These two aforementioned factors will mitigate the increasing inflation risk in 2H21 resulting from a rapid
recovery of basic commodity prices and impact of prolonged easing policies.
Inflation CPI by industry (%)
(% Inflation Core inflation 8M21 avg.

7.0YoY) Items YoY YTD MoM
(% YoY)
6.0 Overall CPI 2.82 2.51 0.25 1.79
5.0 Food and Foodstuff 1.15 1.97 0.74 0.86
4.0 Beverage and Tobacco 1.92 1.59 0.22 1.63
3.0
Garment, Footwear and Hats 0.89 0.43 -0.03 0.86
Housing and Construction Materials 4.34 3.35 0.00 1.98

2.0
Household Appliances and Equipment 0.57 0.60 0.00 0.54
1.0
Medicines and Healthcare 0.16 0.12 0.02 0.20
0.0
Transportation 13.63 11.65 -0.06 7.59
-1.0 Post and Telecommunications -0.85 -0.63 -0.05 -0.73
-2.0 Education 3.98 0.49 0.04 4.08
Dec 15
Dec 16
Dec 17
Dec 18
Dec 19
Dec 20
Aug 15
Aug 16
Aug 17
Aug 18
Aug 19
Aug 20
Aug 21
Apr 15
Apr 16
Apr 17
Apr 18
Apr 19
Apr 20
Apr 21
Culture, Entertainment and Tourism -0.92 -0.38 -0.03 -1.14
Other Services 1.24 0.89 0.00 1.59

Source: GSO
Note: Core inflation is calculated by the method of directly excluding 16 groups
of food, fresh food, energy and prices managed by the State. Source: GSO

Key macroeconomic indicators
Indicator 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020E 2021F
Real GDP growth (%, YoY) 6.0 6.7 6.2 6.8 7.1 7.0 2.9 5.9
Export growth (%, YoY) 13.8 8.1 9.0 21.1 13.2 8.4 6.5 18
Import growth (%, YoY) 12 12.1 5.6 20.8 11.1 6.8 3.6 20
Trade balance (US$ bn) 2.0 -3.2 2.6 2.7 6.8 11.1 19.1 17.2
FDI disbursement (US$ bn) 12.4 14.5 15.8 17.5 19.1 20.4 20.0 21
Retail growth, excluding inflation (%, YoY) 6.2 8.5 8.3 9.3 9.4 9.2 -1.2 4
Average CPI (%) 4.1 0.6 2.7 3.5 3.5 2.8 3.2 4
Foreign exchange reserve (US$bn) 34.5 30.5 36.7 49.2 55.3 78.5 94.8 110
Credit growth (%, YoY) 14.2 17.3 18.2 18.3 10.7 13.6 12.2 13
Exchange rate VND/US$ 21,388 22,485 22,761 22,698 23,175 23,314 23,267 23,151
Change in VND/US$ (%) 1.4 5.1 1.2 -0.3 2.1 0.5 -0.2 -0.5
Public debt (%/GDP)* 43.6 46.1 47.6 46.3 43.6 43.4 46.6 47.1
Source: GSO, Vietnam Customs, MPI, Bloomberg, WB, Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research
Note (*): GDP is revised to adhere to international practices. After recalculation, the revised GDP increased by 25.4% on average over the period 2010-2017.

II. Vietnam stock market review
• Many Asian stock markets posted strong returns in August, amid escalating COVID-19 spread,
namely India (+9.4%), the Philippines (+9.3%), Thailand (+7.7%), and Malaysia (+7.1%).
• Meanwhile, Vietnam’s stock market displayed significant volatility in August, due to mounting
concerns over the economic impact of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. Still, the VN-Index
edged up 1.6% MoM, driven by Materials, Capital Goods, Diversified Financials, Transportation,
Utilities, Insurance, and Pharmaceuticals. By contrast, Banks, with an industry-wide correction,
were the main cause of the VN-Index’s drawdown.
• Market liquidity enhanced, as the daily average trading value increased 16% MoM to around
VND22tr. According to our liquidity tracker, the market cash flow focused on Pharmaceuticals,
F&B, Consumer Durables & Apparel, Automobiles & Components, Capital Goods, Transportation,
Insurance, Materials, Real Estate, and Utilities. Meanwhile, Banks and Software & Services were
mired in the “red” trading level.
• Foreign investors were net sellers of US$277mn (or VND7tr) in August. Thus, they sold about
US$1.6bn YTD, nearly double the net-selling amount in 2020.
• Meanwhile, offshore investors pivoted to net buying in many Asian stock markets in August,
namely Taiwan (US$1bn), India (US$1bn), Indonesia (US$312mn), Malaysia (US$251mn),
Thailand (US$175mn), and the Philippines (US$33mn). Bucking the trend, South Korea recorded
a net-selling amount of US$5bn. That said, apart from India and Indonesia, foreign investors
remained net sellers across other regional peers.

II.1 – Market performance review
• Many Asian stock markets posted strong returns in August, amid escalating COVID-19, namely India (+9.4%),
The VN-Index was highly the Philippines (+9.3%), Thailand (+7.7%), and Malaysia (+7.1%). Meanwhile, Vietnam’s stock market displayed
volatile, edging up 1.6% significant volatility in August, due to mounting concerns over the economic impact of the ongoing COVID-19
pandemic. Still, the VN-Index edged up 1.6% MoM.
MoM in August
Global performance monitor: Monthly change (%)
Hong
Vietnam US MSCI DM MSCI EM MSCI FM Korea Japan China Taiwan India Thailand Malaysia Indonesia Philippines Singapore
Kong
Index VNINDEX SPX MXWO MXEF MXFM KOSPI NKY SHCOMP HIS TWSE SENSEX SET FBMKLCI JCI PCOMP STI
01-2020 -2.5% -0.2% -0.7% -4.7% -0.1% -3.6% -1.9% -2.4% -6.7% -4.2% -1.3% -4.2% -3.6% -5.7% -7.9% -2.1%
02-2020 -5.8% -8.4% -8.6% -5.3% -5.9% -6.2% -8.9% -3.2% -0.7% -1.8% -6.0% -11.5% -3.2% -8.2% -5.7% -4.5%
03-2020 -24.9% -12.5% -13.5% -15.6% -23.2% -11.7% -10.5% -4.5% -9.7% -14.0% -23.1% -16.0% -8.9% -16.8% -21.6% -17.6%
04-2020 16.1% 12.7% 10.8% 9.0% 6.0% 11.0% 6.7% 4.0% 4.4% 13.2% 14.4% 15.6% 4.2% 3.9% 7.1% 5.8%
05-2020 12.4% 4.5% 4.6% 0.6% 5.4% 4.2% 8.3% -0.3% -6.8% -0.5% -3.8% 3.2% 4.7% 0.8% 2.4% -4.3%
06-2020 -4.6% 1.8% 2.5% 7.0% 1.6% 3.9% 1.9% 4.6% 6.4% 6.2% 7.7% -0.3% 1.9% 3.2% 6.3% 3.2%
07-2020 -3.2% 5.5% 4.7% 8.4% -1.1% 6.7% -2.6% 10.9% 0.7% 9.0% 7.7% -0.8% 6.8% 5.0% -4.5% -2.3%
08-2020 10.4% 7.0% 6.5% 2.1% 7.9% 3.4% 6.6% 2.6% 2.4% -0.6% 2.7% -1.3% -4.9% 1.7% -0.7% 0.1%
09-2020 2.7% -3.9% -3.6% -1.8% 0.6% 0.1% 0.2% -5.2% -6.8% -0.6% -1.5% -5.6% -1.3% -7.0% -0.3% -2.6%
10-2020 2.2% -2.8% -3.1% 2.0% 0.9% -2.6% -0.9% 0.2% 2.8% 0.2% 4.1% -3.4% -2.5% 5.3% 7.8% -1.7%
11-2020 8.4% 10.8% 12.7% 9.2% 4.0% 14.3% 15.0% 5.2% 9.3% 9.4% 11.4% 17.9% 6.5% 9.4% 7.4% 15.8%
12-2020 10.0% 3.7% 4.1% 7.2% 5.6% 10.9% 3.8% 2.4% 3.4% 7.4% 8.2% 2.9% 4.1% 6.5% 5.1% 1.3%
01-2021 -4.3% -1.1% -1.1% 3.0% 0.3% 3.6% 0.8% 0.3% 3.9% 2.8% -3.1% 1.2% -3.7% -2.0% -7.4% 2.1%
02-2021 10.6% 2.6% 2.5% 0.7% 0.1% 1.2% 4.7% 0.7% 2.5% 5.4% 6.1% 2.0% 0.7% 6.5% 2.8% 1.6%
03-2021 2.0% 4.2% 3.1% -1.7% -0.1% 1.6% 0.7% -1.9% -2.1% 3.0% 0.8% 6.0% -0.3% -4.1% -5.2% 7.3%
04-2021 4.0% 5.2% 4.5% 2.4% 6.3% 2.8% -1.3% 0.1% 1.2% 6.9% -1.5% -0.3% 1.8% 0.2% -1.1% 1.7%
05-2021 7.2% 0.5% 1.3% 2.1% 3.5% 1.8% 0.2% 4.9% 1.5% -2.8% 6.5% 0.7% -1.1% -0.8% 4.0% -1.7%
06-2021 6.1% 2.2% 1.4% -0.1% 2.5% 2.9% -0.2% -0.7% -1.1% 4.0% 1.0% -0.4% -3.2% 0.6% 4.1% -1.1%
07-2021 -7.0% 2.3% 1.7% -7.0% -0.7% -2.9% -5.2% -5.4% -9.9% -2.9% 0.2% -4.1% -2.5% 1.4% -9.2% 1.2%
08-2021 1.6% 3.0% 2.5% 0.6% 2.8% -0.1% 3.0% 4.3% -0.3% 1.4% 9.4% 7.7% 7.1% 1.3% 9.3% -3.5%
Source: Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research, Bloomberg

II.2 – VN-Index and key driving events
(Pts) Resolution No. 68/NQ-CP
1,500 issued, with support
package of VND26,000bn Vietnam officially
launches biggest-
The Government promulgates Decree Second social security ever vaccination
52/2021/ND-CP on extension of time limit package, worth campaign
1,400 for payment of value-added tax, corporate VND27,000bn, is proposed.
income tax, personal income tax, and land 3 4
rental in 2021 Ho Chi Minh City
State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) issued
implements social 1
distancing measures 2
Circular 03/2021/TTNHNN on April 2, from May 31
1,300 2021, amending Cir. 01/2020/TT-
NHNN to extend debt moratorium for
19 Southern Ministry of
loans hit by COVID-19 and allow banks Finance
provinces and
to apply 3-year provisioning roadmap proposes
cities implement
1,200 for these loans additional
Fourth social distancing
according to Covid-19
COVID-19
Directive 16CT-TTg support
wave
package of
about
1,100 VND24tr
Key events in August:
Third COVID-19 1) The State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) issues Circular

1,000 11/2021/TT-NHNN, replacing Circular 02/2013/TT-
wave: New
cases of COVID- NHNN on classification of assets, risk provisioning
19 community levels, use of provisions for handling risks
RCEP is 2) The government requires Ho Chi Minh City to
infection
officially contain the pandemic before September 15
appear in Hai
900 signed 3) The Ministry of Finance proposes the next support
SBV cuts Duong and
Quang Ninh package of more than VND20,000bn
refinancing 4) The SBV amends Circular 03: Extending the debt
rate to 4% restructuring time by 6 months
800 Second COVID-

19 wave:
EVFTA
Pandemic
officially takes
recurrence in Da
effect
Nang
700
600
Jun 20 Jul 20 Aug 20 Sep 20 Oct 20 Nov 20 Dec 20 Jan 21 Feb 21 Mar 21 Apr 21 May 21 Jun 21 Jul 21 Aug 21

II.3 – Top market movers
Materials led the • Following the strong correction in July, many industries rebounded last month. Notably, the VN-Index’s positive
performance was mainly driven by Materials, and boosted by Capital Goods, Diversified Financials, Transportation,
market Utilities, Insurance, and Pharmaceuticals. By contrast, Banks, with an industry-wide correction, was the main
cause of the VN-Index’s drawdown.
Materials led the market, while Banks was the biggest drag (unit: Index points)
GICS Industry Group 07-2020 08-2020 09-2020 10-2020 11-2020 12-2020 01-2021 02-2021 03-2021 04-2021 05-2021 06-2021 07-2021 08-2021
Materials -2.39 6.90 3.50 5.24 12.29 18.91 -8.82 13.00 2.44 8.07 18.15 7.60 -8.19 14.71
Capital Goods -0.43 3.38 1.15 -1.32 3.49 4.32 1.22 3.16 0.66 0.25 0.52 0.76 -2.05 6.26
Diversified Financials -0.70 1.03 0.86 0.41 1.39 5.44 -1.56 1.87 0.55 -0.10 4.55 4.82 -1.05 5.12
Transportation -3.35 2.94 1.92 -1.22 4.16 3.00 -1.46 4.52 0.15 -2.82 -3.18 3.21 -0.94 3.39
Utilities -2.65 5.54 -0.92 -1.68 7.94 4.63 -7.08 7.59 0.87 -4.11 -1.37 6.35 -3.17 2.40
Insurance -1.13 1.68 0.21 0.32 1.05 2.33 -2.30 0.52 0.14 -0.43 -0.43 1.00 -1.29 1.43
Pharmaceuticals -0.04 0.81 0.06 -0.15 0.32 0.35 -0.15 0.20 0.18 -0.09 0.09 0.35 -0.33 1.38
Food, Beverage & Tobacco -3.04 10.57 7.20 7.48 3.18 6.15 -12.42 9.00 -3.46 -4.54 -0.04 5.00 -0.07 1.34
Real Estate 0.30 9.31 0.95 12.56 8.55 17.88 8.19 19.69 6.50 29.33 -8.26 29.72 -33.01 1.15
Retailing -0.75 2.53 1.43 0.02 1.49 0.56 1.86 0.34 -0.62 1.51 -0.31 1.66 1.73 0.43
Technology Hardware & Equipment 0.01 0.09 0.08 -0.01 0.27 0.10 -0.09 0.29 0.27 -0.07 0.11 0.10 0.23 0.29
Health Care Equipment & Services 0.00 0.05 0.02 -0.03 0.01 0.04 -0.05 0.01 0.01 -0.01 0.00 0.00 -0.01 0.26
Automobiles & Components -0.10 0.13 0.20 -0.07 0.09 0.17 0.13 0.10 0.13 -0.09 0.02 0.11 -0.05 0.21
Consumer Services -0.30 0.04 0.05 -0.09 0.07 0.13 0.07 0.50 -0.15 -0.13 -0.27 0.15 -0.12 0.16
Commercial & Professional Services -0.09 0.08 -0.02 -0.01 0.12 0.07 -0.05 0.03 0.03 -0.06 0.00 0.05 0.01 0.15
Energy -1.00 3.79 -0.39 -0.55 0.98 1.76 -1.50 3.77 -1.08 -2.11 1.85 0.40 -1.87 0.09
Telecommunication Services -0.01 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.20 -0.02 -0.01 0.00 0.02 0.07 -0.04 0.06
Media & Entertainment -0.05 0.05 -0.05 -0.02 -0.01 0.02 -0.03 -0.02 -0.01 -0.10 -0.09 -0.01 -0.05 -0.01
Household & Personal Products 0.00 0.40 0.15 -0.11 0.25 0.16 -0.09 0.66 0.14 -0.03 0.00 -0.01 0.02 -0.02
Software & Services -0.32 1.20 0.01 0.26 0.83 0.95 0.76 2.88 0.41 0.61 3.65 0.75 1.61 -0.06
Consumer Durables & Apparel -0.48 0.94 0.22 0.73 0.88 0.63 0.90 0.55 1.25 0.55 -0.16 0.54 -0.52 -0.15
Banks -8.58 21.84 6.77 -2.22 27.46 30.86 -20.19 42.84 11.42 22.23 73.60 19.84 -49.73 -17.12
VN-INDEX -26.72 83.26 23.56 20.26 77.61 100.79 -47.26 111.86 20.00 47.95 88.66 80.50 -98.50 21.42

II.3 – Top market movers (cont’d.)
Stellar • GVR (+15%), DPM (+44%), DCM (+24%), and DGC (+24%) were the main leading contributors in Materials.
performers in • Transportation was among the top outperformers, thanks to the recovery of the airline stock VJC (+12%), as well as
overheating in seaport stocks.
Materials:
• Diversified Financials performed well, driven by SSI (+13%), VCI (+21%), and FTS (+58%).
GVR, DPM, DCM, • In terms of Real Estate, residential realties (VHM: -2%, PDR: -5%) weighed heavily on the index, while industrial real
and DGC estate (BCM: +12%, KBC: +24%) cushioned the blow.
• Banks mainly caused the VN-Index’s drawdown, with industry-wide correction like CTG (-8%), ACB (-12%), TCB (-5%),
BID (-5%), VIB (-13%), STB (-9%). Also, the VN-Index was negatively impacted by PNJ (-10%) in Consumer Durables &
Apparel and FPT (-2%) in Software & Services.
Top 20 leading contributors Top 20 lagging contributors
Price change Index impact Price change Index impact

Industry Ticker Industry Ticker
(% MoM) (points) (% MoM) (points)
Materials GVR 15.0 5.5 Banks CTG -7.6 -3.4
Materials HPG 4.2 2.4 Banks ACB -11.5 -3.0
Transportation VJC 11.9 2.0 Banks TCB -5.1 -2.5
Real Estate BCM 12.2 1.4 Banks BID -5.2 -2.3
Banks VCB 1.4 1.4 Banks VIB -12.9 -2.3
Diversified Financials SSI 13.2 1.3 Real Estate VHM -1.8 -1.7
Materials DPM 44.0 1.2 Food, Beverage & Tobacco SAB -5.7 -1.6
Insurance BVH 11.5 1.2 Banks STB -8.5 -1.3
Materials DGC 23.6 1.0 Real Estate VIC -1.2 -1.2
Real Estate KBC 23.7 1.0 Banks MBB -3.5 -1.0
Capital Goods DIG 36.3 1.0 Banks LPB -9.6 -0.8
Diversified Financials VCI 20.9 0.9 Real Estate PDR -5.0 -0.6
Real Estate HPX 43.5 0.9 Consumer Durables & Apparel PNJ -10.2 -0.6
Capital Goods REE 20.0 0.9 Banks HDB -3.7 -0.5
Diversified Financials FTS 57.7 0.8 Energy PLX -3.1 -0.5
Food, Beverage & Tobacco VNM 1.5 0.7 Banks OCB -5.6 -0.5
Utilities POW 10.7 0.7 Banks MSB -4.6 -0.4
Materials DCM 23.8 0.7 Software & Services FPT -1.7 -0.4
Food, Beverage & Tobacco SBT 21.8 0.7 Banks EIB -4.0 -0.4
Capital Goods VGC 17.6 0.7 Banks TPB -2.6 -0.3
Source: Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research, Bloomberg Source: Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research, Bloomberg

II.4 – Market liquidity heatmap
• Market liquidity improved, as the daily average trading value increased 16% MoM to around VND22tr.
Market liquidity • According to our liquidity tracker, the market cash flow focused on Pharmaceuticals, F&B, Consumer Durables &
improved Apparel, Automobiles & Components, Capital Goods, Transportation, Insurance, Materials, Real Estate, and
Utilities. Meanwhile, Banks and Software & Services were mired in the “red” trading level.
Market liquidity heatmap

Liquidity heat map by week
Industry
02-07-21 09-07-21 16-07-21 23-07-21 30-07-21 06-08-21 13-08-21 20-08-21 27-08-21 01-09-21
Health Care Equipment & Services 100%
Pharmaceuticals 100%
Food, Beverage & Tobacco 100%
Consumer Durables & Apparel 100%
Automobiles & Components 100%
Capital Goods 100%
Transportation 100%
Insurance 97%
Materials 97%
Real Estate 95%
Utilities 92%
Diversified Financials 82%
Technology Hardware & Equipment 71%
Energy 53%
Retailing 53%
Software & Services 26%
Banks 13%
VN-INDEX 79%
Source: Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research

II.5 – Foreign investment review
Foreign investors • Foreign investors were net sellers of US$277mn (or VND7tr) in August, with Fubon FTSE Vietnam ETF
withdrawing about US$64mn (or VND1.8tr). Overall, overseas investors sold about US$1.6bn YTD, nearly double
continued to selling the net-selling amount in 2020.
• Meanwhile, offshore investors pivoted to net buying in many Asian stock markets in August, namely Taiwan
(US$1bn), India (US$1bn), Indonesia (US$312mn), Malaysia (US$251mn), Thailand (US$175mn), and the
Philippines (US$33mn). Bucking the trend, South Korea recorded a net-selling amount of US$5bn. That said,
apart from India and Indonesia, foreign investors remained net sellers across other regional peers.
Foreign net buying/selling by year and month (unit: US$mn) Capital flows of foreign investors in Asian markets
Market
1,163 1,887
1,421 8-2021 QTD 2021 YTD 2020
801 (US$mn)
349 173 1 156 134 155 100 182
Vietnam -277 -68 -1,598 -876
-345
-876
-1,598
S. Korea -5,089 -9,311 -26,348 -20,082
2007 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 2021
(YTD) India 1,012 -694 7,391 23,373
Taiwan 1,074 -3,137 -16,241 -15,997
Indonesia 312 379 1,571 -3,220
Malaysia 251 -67 -1,094 -5,782
Philippines 33 -151 -1,694 -2,513
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Thailand 175 -347 -2,815 -8,287
2020 2021

II.5 – Foreign investment review (cont’d)
Top net-selling stocks: • In August, offshore investors sold heavily VIC, NVL, VRE, KBC, and NLG in Real Estate; MSN, VNM, and SAB in F&B; and
HPG in Materials.
VIC, MSN, HPG, and
• On the other hand, top draws were STB, MBB, HDB, VIB, and LPB in Banks; VHM and NTL in Real Estate; and DGC, HSG,
VNM PTB, DCM, DHC, and PDR in Materials.
Top net-buying stocks (Unit: VNDbn) Top net-selling stocks (Unit: VNDbn)
Industry Ticker 8-2021 2021 YTD Industry Ticker 8-2021 2021 YTD
Banks STB 993.2 3,427.0 Real Estate VIC -1,554.8 -3,158.2
Banks MBB 730.2 -627.8 Food, Beverage & Tobacco MSN -904.9 -567.1
Real Estate VHM 599.8 4,727.8 Materials HPG -823.7 -12,937.5
Materials DGC 254.0 911.6 Food, Beverage & Tobacco VNM -796.8 -6,507.4
Energy PLX 249.8 1,413.1 Others FUEVFVND -705.6 3,499.6
Banks HDB 196.5 806.9 Diversified Financials SSI -651.1 -460.1
Materials HSG 146.3 144.1 Real Estate NVL -606.5 2,422.6
Others E1VFVN30 90.4 708.5 Real Estate VRE -504.4 -427.6
Materials PTB 84.9 53.7 Utilities GAS -479.9 -981.1
Insurance BVH 77.2 -617.0 Materials DPM -407.8 -301.8
Retailing FRT 76.5 -77.8 Transportation VJC -396.4 -604.0
Automobiles & Components DRC 69.9 -223.2 Banks CTG -297.1 -7,213.1
Materials DCM 64.5 -39.4 Diversified Financials VCI -217.1 -1,085.6
Banks VIB 62.8 108.4 Banks VPB -214.2 -5,823.1
Materials DHC 62.3 318.3 Real Estate KBC -208.6 349.7
Others TNH 53.5 53.5 Transportation GMD -205.3 195.3
Materials PHR 48.1 -118.8 Food, Beverage & Tobacco SAB -164.1 -594.9
Real Estate NTL 42.0 65.5 Capital Goods DIG -164.0 -118.6
Banks LPB 33.1 -406.6 Consumer Durables & Apparel PNJ -143.9 -82.3
Utilities POW 30.7 -1,699.7 Real Estate NLG -142.1 -371.9

III. Vietnam stock market prospects
• Following the 2Q21 earnings season, revenue growth momentum remained robust; thus, the V-
shaped recovery from the 2Q20 bottom was extended. On a positive note, both gross profit and
operating profit margins continued to widen. That said, EPS growth momentum slowed. In sum,
1H21 EPS growth was around 75.3%, partly thanks to 1H20’s low base.
• As the current outbreak has been prolonged over the past four months, and the government
imposed stricter lockdown measures in 3Q21, we expect 3Q21 earnings result to be hit severely,
before recovering in 4Q21. We expect a return to new normalcy in October, following the
government’s containment efforts. Against this backdrop, we project EPS growth of 12% YoY in
2H21 and 33% YoY in 2021, respectively. Otherwise, in our worst-case assumption, we lower the
2021 EPS growth expectation to 26%, in case the lockdown is prolonged to 4Q21.
• Correspondingly, we adjusted our projection for the VN-Index to the range of 1,200–1,440 pts.
We believe the market has been reflecting the negative impact of the ongoing outbreak since
July. That said, continuing escalation of the pandemic could result in further pricing-in of stock
movements in September. In the worst case, the VN-Index is expected to find its supportive level
of around 1,200pts. In the best-case scenario, with an earlier-than-expected containment of the
pandemic, the VN-Index should surpass the 2021 peak of about 1,440pts.
• The current P/E level of VN-Index is not burdensome in terms of either historical or peer
comparable valuations.

III.1 – Historical valuations
Valuation levels are not • As of end-August, VN-Index traded at 16x on a trailing P/E basis, 10% higher the 10-year average and 8% less than
one standard deviation (SD) above the 10-year average. Looking back, the current P/E level is 27% below the
burdensome historical high set in April 2018 (i.e., 22x).
• In the meantime, the valuations of the US and Indian markets were approaching their 10-year P/E average plus
two SDs. Singapore, the Philippines, and Thailand valued below their 10-year P/E average plus two SDs. South
Korea, China, and Taiwan traded around their 10-year P/E average. The P/E levels of Japan, Hong Kong, and
Malaysia were less than their 10-year average.
P/E of VN-Index: 10-year band chart 10-year P/E band chart of VN-Index and other markets
(x) P/E -2SD -1SD (x)

10-yr Avg +/-2 SD 10-year average Current P/E
10-year average +1SD +2SD
22
35
20 19.9
30
18
25
17.3
16
20
14.6
14
15
12 12.0
10
10
9.3 5
8
0
6
Aug 11 Aug 13 Aug 15 Aug 17 Aug 19 Aug 21

III.3 – Relative valuations
Vietnam’s market has • The VN-Index boasted a stellar performance (i.e., +21% YTD). Backed by expectations of post-pandemic reopening
and recovery, some markets also enjoyed double-digit returns, namely the US (+20.6%), India (+20.5%), Taiwan
relatively attractive (+19%), Thailand (+13%), and South Korea (+11%). By contrast, other Asian markets underperformed, namely
valuation, with high ROE Singapore (+7%), Indonesia (+3%), China (+2%), the Philippines (-4%), and Hong Kong (-5%).
and EPS growth • Following a strong increase in price, the VN-Index still has a relatively attractive valuation, thanks to its high ROE
and expectations for robust EPS growth. Although the current outbreak undermined the market’s growth
prospects prospects, 2021 EPS growth is still relatively high, with 1H21 EPS up by 75.3% YoY.
Vietnam’s market has relatively high ROE, with attractive P/E Vietnam’s market is expected to enjoy high EPS growth, attractive forward P/E
19
Korea
70
US
17 60
Vietnam
Taiwan 50
Taiwan
15
MSCI FM 40
2019-2021 EPS CAGR (%)

MSCI DM Vietnam
ROE (%)
India 30
13 MSCI EM MSCI EM
Japan
MSCI DM India
20 US
China
China
11 Malaysia
Japan 10
Hong Kong Indonesia
MSCI FM
0
Malaysia
9 Hong Kong Thailand
Korea -10
Thailand
Singapore Philippines
Philippines
7 -20
10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26
P/E (x) Forward P/E (x)

III.3 – 2Q21 earnings review and 2021 outlook update
2Q21 strong growth on • Following the 2Q21 earnings season, revenue growth momentum remained robust; thus, the V-shaped
recovery from the 2Q20 bottom was extended. On a positive note, both gross profit and operating profit
low base; hard-hit
margins continued to widen. That said, EPS growth momentum was slowed. In sum, 1H21 EPS growth was
3Q21; recovery around 75.3%, partly thanks to 1H20’s low base.
expectation in 4Q21 • As the current outbreak has been prolonged over the past four months, and the government imposed stricter
lockdown measures in 3Q21, we expect 3Q21 earnings result to be hit severely, before recovering in 4Q21. Of
note, we expect a return to new normalcy in October, following the government’s containment efforts. Against
this backdrop, we project 2H21 EPS growth of 12% YoY.
Sales per share and EPS growth of HOSE-listed companies Both gross profit and operating profit margins are widening
(% YoY) Sales growth Earnings growth

Gross margin Operating margin
93% 21%
20%
78%
19%
63%
18%
48% 17%
16%
33%
15%
18% 14%
13%
3%
12%
-12%
11%
-27% 10%
2Q12 2Q13 2Q14 2Q15 2Q16 2Q17 2Q18 2Q19 2Q20 2Q21 2Q12 2Q13 2Q14 2Q15 2Q16 2Q17 2Q18 2Q19 2Q20 2Q21

III.3 – 2Q21 earnings review and 2021 outlook update (cont’d)
Net profit growth of HOSE-listed Industry 1Q20 2Q20 3Q20 4Q20 1Q21 2Q21 Figure
firms by industry since COVID-19 Consumer Durables & Apparel -12% 17% 25% 93% 30% 174%
Real Estate 25% -41% 34% 1% 42% 120%
Strong momentum
Automobiles & Components 89% -16% 20% 8% 26% 55%
Retailing -2% -29% 9% 23% 29% 45%
Pharmaceuticals, Biotechnology & Life Sciences 15% 12% 15% -6% 8% 14%
Technology Hardware & Equipment 80% 45% 44% 69% 137% 140%
Materials 19% 32% 67% 119% 191% 193%
Software & Services 21% 16% -2% 19% 22% 13%
Banks 7% 24% 7% 28% 76% 36%

Slow momentum
Capital Goods -18% -5% 20% 9% 99% 13%
Energy -234% -10% -10% 10% 144% 23%
Telecommunication Services -83% 28% 32% 99% 293% 65%
Commercial & Professional Services -64% -64% 52% 1% 374% 72%
Diversified Financials -100% 127% 48% 93% 217196% 73%

Improving
Utilities -29% -35% -41% -7% -2% 23%
Health Care Equipment & Services -76% -36% 2% -465% -845% 21%
Food, Beverage & Tobacco -34% 9% -10% -15% 16% -2%
Insurance -48% 69% 26% 180% 137% -3%
Household & Personal Products 66% 6% 0% 49% -31% -17%

Sluggish
Transportation -184% -231% -200% -28% -33% -43%
Consumer Services -227% -98% -99% 284% 57% -151%
Media & Entertainment -50% 97% 110% 40% -1381% -4848%
Source: Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research, FiinPro

Note: Net profit growth (YoY) was calculated based on net profit attributable to controlling interests.

III.4 – Market valuation based on EPS growth expectation
• Optimistically, we kept our projection for this year's EPS growth at around 33% YoY, based upon the assumption
VN-Index is projected that 2H21 EPS will increase 12% YoY on the back of a return to new normalcy in October. Otherwise, in our worst-
case assumption, we lower the 2021 EPS growth expectation to 26%, in case the lockdown is prolonged to 4Q21.
to fluctuate in range
• According to Bloomberg stats, the market consensus for the VN-Index’s EPS growth in 2021, 2022, and 2023 are
of 1,200–1,440 pts in 38%, 21%, and 18%, respectively. Overall, the market has confidence that 2021 earnings growth will remain
the next four months unscathed.
• Correspondingly, we adjusted our projection for the VN-Index to the range of 1,200–1,440 pts. We believe the
market has been reflecting the negative impact of the ongoing outbreak since July. That said, continuing escalation
of the pandemic could result in further pricing-in of stock movements in September. In the worst-case scenario, the
VN-Index is expected to find its support level of around 1,200pts. In the best-case scenario, with an earlier-than-
expected containment of the pandemic, the VN-Index should exceed the 2021 peak of about 1,440pts.
Vietnam EPS growth: Our projection vs. market consensus Reasonable range of VN-Index from 1,200 to 1,500 pts
(% YoY)
Fair P/E
44% Consensus Our projection
13 14 15 16 17 18 19
2021 EPS growth expectation

26% 1,043 1,124 1,204 1,284 1,364 1,445 1,525
39%
27% 1,052 1,133 1,213 1,294 1,375 1,456 1,537
34% 28% 1,060 1,142 1,223 1,305 1,386 1,468 1,549
29% 1,068 1,150 1,233 1,315 1,397 1,479 1,561

29%
30% 1,077 1,159 1,242 1,325 1,408 1,491 1,573
31% 1,085 1,168 1,252 1,335 1,419 1,502 1,585

24%
32% 1,093 1,177 1,261 1,345 1,429 1,514 1,598
33% 1,101 1,186 1,271 1,356 1,440 1,525 1,610

19%
Feb 21 Mar 21 Apr 21 May 21 Jun 21 Jul 21 Aug 21
Source: Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research, Bloomberg Source: Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research

III.5 – Upcoming market events
World events Vietnam's events
Date Country Event Date Event

Announcement of FTSE Vietnam ETF portfolio restructuring in
9/7/2021 Australia RBA Interest Rate Decision 06−17 September, 2021
3Q21
Announcement of VanEck Vectors Vietnam (VNM) ETF portfolio
9/20/2021 China Loan Prime Rate 1Y 13−17 September, 2021
restructuring in 3Q21
September
9/22/2021 Japan BoJ Interest Rate Decision 9/16/2021 Expiry date of the VN30 futures contract
Announcement of annual FTSE Russell Country Classification
9/23/2021 US Fed Interest Rate Decision 20−24 September, 2021
review
9/23/2021 UK BoE Interest Rate Decision
Announcement of members’ information updates of VNFIN
10/5/2021 Australia RBA Interest Rate Decision 10/18/2021 LEAD and VNDIAMOND; announcement of VNFINSELECT’s
member change
10/14/2021 US FOMC Minutes 10/18/2021 Completion of VFMVN30 ETF portfolio restructuring
October
10/20/2021 China Loan Prime Rate 1Y 10/21/2021 Expiry date of the VN30 futures contract
10/28/2021 Japan BoJ Interest Rate Decision 10/30/2021 VFMVN30 ETF portfolio weight update
10/2/2021 Australia RBA Interest Rate Decision
Oct/Nov ASEAN Business and Investment Members’ information updates of VNDIAMOND and VNFIN
ASEAN 11/01/2021
2021 Summit LEAD take effect
11/4/2021 US Fed Interest Rate Decision 11/01/2021 VNFINSELECT’s member update takes effect
November 11/4/2021 UK BoE Interest Rate Decision 11/11/2021 Completion of VFMVN30 ETF portfolio restructuring
11/22/2021 China Loan Prime Rate 1Y 11/18/2021 Expiry date of the VN30 futures contract
11/25/2021 US FOMC Minutes 22−26 November, 2021 iShares MSCI Frontier 100 ETF restructuring
Nov-21 G-20 G-20 Summit
Announcement of FTSE Vietnam ETF portfolio restructuring in
12/7/2021 Australia RBA Interest Rate Decision 04−17 December, 2021
4Q21
Announcement of VanEck Vectors Vietnam (VNM) ETF portfolio
12/16/2021 US Fed Interest Rate Decision 11−17 December, 2021
restructuring in 4Q21
December
12/16/2021 UK BoE Interest Rate Decision 12/16/2021 Expiry date of the VN30 futures contract
12/17/2021 Japan BoJ Interest Rate Decision
12/20/2021 China Loan Prime Rate 1Y
Source: Tradingeconomics.com, Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research compilation

IV. Sector outlook
• Banks are still a bright spot in terms of profitability amid the pandemic. Asset quality is not
expected to see significant changes, as banks are still allowed to restructure debts for
pandemic-affected customers until the end of 2021. Recently, the central bank has been
consulting on the amendment and supplement of Circulars 01/2020 and 03/2021, which will
guide banks on how to deal with loans affected by COVID-19.
• Diversified financials are taking advantage of the market’s rapidly increasing demand from
retail investors and buoyant market liquidity.
• Steel: 2021 will still be a year of solid growth for companies in the industry. We believe the post-
COVID-19 era will be good for the steel industry from 2022 onwards.
• Industrial Real Estate: 2021 profits are likely to be lower than expected, due to the pandemic;
however, land bank that cannot be leased this year is expected to generate a sharp increase in
2022 profits.
• Residential Real Estate: We expect the government to make amendments to the land law and
speed up the legal approval process. However, the prolonged COVID-19 pandemic will
negatively affect the demand side.
• F&B: Essential packaged foods are a beneficiary of the lockdown.
• Utilities: Hydropower generators were the biggest beneficiaries, thanks to favorable hydrology
and a low-cost power source.
• IT: The sector is benefiting from domestic digital transformation, as well as the solid growth
momentum of software exports.
III.1 – Earnings growth expectations (cont’d)
• Although the credit growth of 6.44% YTD in 1H21 was impressive (3.65% over the same period last year), the
Banks additional credit growth limit that was recently granted to banks indicates the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV)’s cautious
stance towards the money market. For instance, Military Bank (MBB) has been approved for a new credit growth
quota of 15% in 2021 (compared with 20% in 2020), while Techcombank (TCB) was assigned new credit growth of 17%
(compared with over 23% in 2020).
• Vietnam's GDP in 1H21 increased by 5.64%, according to the General Statistics Office, roughly equivalent to credit
growth. Accordingly, bank credit to the private sector as percentage of GDP remained at approximately 140%. This is a
warning level of the economy's high dependence on credit. However, GDP growth will slow in 2H21, due to the impact
of wider application of social distancing measures, especially in key cities. We think credit growth for the industry in
2021 will be in the range of 8–9%, higher than the SBV's expected growth rate in the worst-case scenario of 7–8%.
• Asset quality is not expected to see significant changes, as banks are still allowed to restructure debts for customers
affected by the COVID-19 pandemic until the end of 2021. Recently, the SBV has been consulting on the amendment
and supplement of Circulars 01/2020 and 03/2021, which will guide banks on how to deal with loans affected by the
COVID-19 pandemic.
• The banking sector is still a bright spot in terms of profitability amid the pandemic, with sector profits generally
expected to maintain double-digit growth in 2021, thanks to positive business results in 1H21.
• With banks starting to cut interest rates to support customers in the last five months of 2021, as requested by the SBV,
we expect to see strong divergence between banks. In detail, banks with good asset quality bear less provisioning
burden from the pandemic, while a customer base resistant to COVID-19 effects will help banks to limit reductions to
interest income, due to offerings of rate-support packages.
• Some banks have announced reductions to interest rates ofy about 0.5%p to customers in the epicenter of the
pandemic, such as Ho Chi Minh City or Binh Duong province. In addition, many banks also offer credit packages with
extremely low rates, which are slightly higher than those of government bonds. The expansion of support packages
will adversely affect the income of banks in the short term, while virus isolation and how rapidly the economy
recovers will affect banks in the medium term.
• In our opinion, the current valuation of the banking industry is quite reasonable, with an average market-to-book (P/B)
ratio of 2.0x, down 13% compared with the peak of 2.3–2.4x.

• In 1H21, brokerage stocks, led by SSI (+62%), HCM (+75%), VCI (+52%), and VND (+133%), outperformed the VN-Index
Diversified financials (+17.5%). These companies are taking advantage of the market’s rapidly increasing demand from retails investors and
are likely to achieve their targets for revenue and profit. These companies made their business plans based on market
liquidity of VND15tr on a daily basis; however, the average daily trading value on the VN-Index since the beginning of
this year has exceeded VND17tr. Furthermore, the number of new open trading accounts has been consistently
peaking month by month (June: 140,051 new open trading accounts, the highest number ever). As 2Q21 financial
reports are released, they are showing healthy results in terms of profit before tax (PBT), with SSI recording
VND1,232bn (achieving 65% of the full-year target); HCM: VND753bn (50%); VCI: VND868bn (69%); and, notably, VND:
VND1,135bn (103%), in just the first six months.
• However, valuation levels are burdensome. In 1H21, brokerage stocks were up as much as 3 to 4 times compared with
the VN-Index; notably, VND’s return was seven times that of the benchmark gauge. Due to their unique features and
high betas, these stocks tend to retreat in tandem with market corrections, and display higher volatility.
• Since our previous strategy report published in start-August 2021, these stocks had already increased by 20%–30% to
the peak in the middle of August before retreating to the current price range. We believe that brokerage stocks are
fairly priced-in by the market’s expectations, with returns at approximately 100% since the beginning of this year.
Therefore, for the last four months, we downgrade our expectation for the Diversified Financials sector to Neutral.

• In 1H21, the domestic market played a key role in the steel industry’s growth. Moreover, the EU, North America, and
Steel China are in the process of removing social distancing measures, which should greatly benefit Vietnam's steel
industry. Steel output in 6M2021 reached 15.9mn MT (+37% YoY). According to data of the Vietnam Steel Association
(VSA), export volume reached a new peak of 3.4mn MT in 1H21 (+84.4% YoY).
• The impressive business results of steel enterprises in 1H21 were also due to high steel prices. From December 2020,
the price of construction steel was VND11.2mn/MT, but has increased by 53% to VND17.2mn/MT in June 2021, before
dropping slightly to VND16.8mn in July 2021.
• We believe that a too-high increase in steel prices will have a negative effect on the construction industry and public
investment in 2H21. We revise our growth rate forecast for the construction industry in 2021 downward from 12% to
8%. The negative impact of the COVID-19 pandemic was significant, as the Vietnamese government issued strict social
distancing measures in July, putting a halt to many construction projects. In the worst-case scenario, we foresee a
gloomy outlook for the construction industry in 2H21 if the pandemic is not brought under control before 4Q21. In
fact, many construction projects have been postponed, with businesses waiting to offset the cost of materials terms
from developers, which could slow any progress for 6–18 months.
• Thus, we assess that there will be a growth divergence. For galvanized steel manufacturers, such as HSG and NKG, we
maintain positive recommendations, thanks to export/total revenue ratios of over 60%. For domestic construction
steel companies, such as HPG or POM, we think the impact will be greater.
• However, with impressive business results in 1H21, we believe that 2021 will still be a year of solid growth for
companies in the industry. Besides, we believe the post-COVID-19 era will be good for the steel industry from 2022
onwards, thanks to planned new public investment from the Ministry of Investment and Planning (MOIT), which is
expected to reach about 5% of GDP.
• Vietnam's steel industry is currently at P/E and EV/EBITDA of 9.2x and 5.6x, respectively, 36% lower than the average
of the Asian steel industry (P/E of 12.6x; EV/EBITDA of 9.1x), which is an attractive valuation.

• After the robust growth period of 2019–2020, industrial real estate rental prices showed signs of slowing in 1H21.
Industrial Real Estate According to data from Jones Lang LaSalle Incorporated (JLL), rental prices in the southern provinces in 1H21
increased by an average of 8.2% YoY to US$111/m2/lease term; and that of northern provinces increased by 8.1% YoY
to US$107/m2/lease term.
• In 2Q21, the industrial real estate market recorded the most successful transactions in the Ba Ria - Vung Tau province,
home to Sothern Vietnam’s largest seaport, Cai Mep - Thi Vai port. The average rental price in Ba Ria-Vung Tau is
about US$80/m2/lease cycle, the most competitive price in the Southeast region.
• The fourth Covid-19 outbreak is directly affecting businesses in existing industrial parks, while at the same time
slowing down investors’ surveys and searches for land leases. The epidemic is affecting not just Vietnam, but the
whole of Southeast Asia and India, which compete directly for investment capital with Vietnam.
• We expect the pandemic to directly reduce the profit of industrial zone real estate companies in 2021; however, land
bank that cannot be leased this year is expected to generate a sharp increase in profit in 2022. We focus on
businesses that possess large land banks with reasonable accumulated value; these could generate good business
results in 2021 and growth from 2022.
• On the positive side, we expect the government to make amendments to the land law and speed up the legal
Residential Real approval process. However, the prolonged COVID-19 pandemic, which has a negative impact on the economy in
Estate general, will also lead to limited demand for the real estate industry. According to our assessment, although the real
estate market has yet to show any signs of a bubble, the price of real estate in the market is no longer cheap. Thus,
we should not only consider the revenue and profit factors of real estate companies in 2021, but we should also focus
on companies with a wide sales network and ample capital to help in the long run.

• The fourth wave of COVID-19 and containment measures have seriously affected the pocketbooks and living habits of
Food & Beverage middle- and lower-middle-income households in Vietnam. This leads to a large change in the priority order of
household spending on food & beverage categories, resulting in different impacts on business groups.
• In that context, we evaluate essential packaged foods as a beneficiary group in 2H21. The application of strict isolation
measures and travel restrictions by the southern provinces from mid-July 2021 led to increased demand for food
storage. Traditional markets in Ho Chi Minh City, as well as other cities (such as Can Tho, Binh Duong, and Ha Noi)
were also forced to close for periods of time, leading to a sudden increase in sales at supermarkets and convenience
stores.
• According to Vietnam Electricity Corporation (EVN), electricity consumption increased by 7.9% YoY in 7M21. In 3Q21,
Utilities electricity demand will be negatively affected by the COVID-19 pandemic. However, consumption recorded a better-
than-expected increase of 5.3% YoY in July 2021. We expect output growth to recover in 4Q21, thus fulfilling EVN’s
5.2% YoY growth target for FY21.
• Hydropower generators were the biggest beneficiaries, thanks to favorable hydrology and a low-cost power source.
The water levels of some of the main rivers in the Central and Southern regions increased continually from 2H20, thus
boosting the hydropower group’s business performance. Based on seasonal cycles in rainfall statistics, we will see
improvements in hydropower outcomes in FY21 and 1H22.
• Software and Services are expected to recover in the 2021–2025 period, with business software, IT equipment and
Software and Services services projected to enjoy the strongest recoveries, thanks to: 1) Enterprises/organizations increasing focus on
optimizing operational efficiency, creating an improved and more comfortable working environment, especially as the
COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in rapid changes to work and consumption patterns; 2) demand for digital
transformation of domestic businesses has been accelerating, in line with the government’s policies; and 3) Vietnam's
software exports have maintained solid growth momentum, with the advantage of labor resources and the increasing
consolidation of Vietnam’s worldwide software outsourcing. Accordingly, we forecast the EPS growth of listed
companies in the Software and Services industry to reach 22% YoY in 2021, recovering from 7% YoY in 2020.

V. Stock recommendations
Investment themes Industry 12-month target price (VND) and potential upside
NKG HSG HPG
Commodity price surge Materials 47,400 52,200 57,300
31% 37% 20%
IJC PDR VHM NVL
Residential Real Estat

Post-COVID-19 demand 36,800 116,500 141,300 131,700
e
42% 40% 33% 27%
VPB VCB
Post-COVID-19 demand Banks 71,500 112,600
18% 17%
POW NT2 SJD
Post-COVID-19 demand Utilities 14,000 22,500 19,200
23% 17% 11%
KBC GAS FPT SZC
Others 56,600 102,500 102,700 49,100
52% 19% 12% 11%
Source: Mirae Asset Vietnam Research (closing prices on August 27, 2021)

Nam Kim Steel JSC (NKG VN) Top pick
Impressive turnaround
Investment points
• Business results for Nam Kim Steel JSC (NKG) in 1H21 were very impressive, with revenue and net profit (NP)
(Maintain) BUY of VND11.877bn (+146% YoY) and VND1,166bn (+1,883% YoY), respectively. The output of galvanized steel
sheet and steel pipe was 473,525 MT (+85.4% YoY) and 99,586 MT (+74.8% YoY), respectively, thanks to the
strong recovery of the global market.
Target price • FY21 ROE of 39.4%, and FY21 EPS of VND11,474/share. We forecast that the sales volume of galvanized sheet
47,400
(VND, 12M) and steel pipe in FY21 will reach 819,900 MT (+45% YoY) and 184,306 MT (+30% YoY), respectively,
corresponding to forecast revenue of FY21 to be VND23,190bn (+101% YoY) and projected NP of VND2,062bn
Current price (+598% YoY). The price difference between HRC in North America and Europe versus that in Asia helps
36,100 manufacturers in Asia achieve better profit margins.
(8/27/21)
• The ratio of inventories to total assets (INV/TA) in 2Q21 increased to 42%, but remained at a safe level, thanks
to an increase in export portion. We estimate export gross margin for 3-month futures contracts to be 3-4%
Expected return 31% higher than that of the domestic market. We forecast that NKG's export revenue/total revenue in FY21 will
increase to 60% (vs. 41% in FY20). Thus, we believe that the downside risks of NKG’s NP in 3Q21 are still under
NP (21F, VNDbn) 2,062 control.
Consensus NP (21F, VNDbn) 1,907

• Net debt ratio is expected to decrease sharply in FY21 and FY22. The liquidation of non-profitable long-term
investment helped NKG tightly control liquidity risk over the past two years. We estimate NKG’s net
EPS Growth (21F, %) 598 debt/equity ratio in FY21 and FY22 will drop sharply, to 40% and 20% (vs. 90% in FY20), respectively. Thus, we
forecast the dividend for FY21 and FY22 to increase to VND1,300/share, equivalent to a dividend yield of 3%.
P/E (21F, x) 5.0
Market cap (VND bn) 6,633
Shares outstanding (mn) 182 (%) VN-Index NKG VN FY (31/12) 12/17 12/18 12/19 12/20 12/21F 12/22F
720 Revenue (VNDbn) 12,619 14,812 12,177 11,560 23,190 21,997
Free float (%) 60.8
620 OP (VNDbn) 1,024 390 63 509 2,621 1,452
Foreign ownership (%) 14.1
520 OP margin (%) 8.1% 2.6% 0.5% 4.4% 11.3% 6.6%
52-week low 6,000
420 NP (VNDbn) 708 57 47 295 2,062 1,142
52-week high 36,700 320 EPS (VND) 3,937 319 263 1,643 9,541 5,283
220 ROE (%) 24.1% 1.9% 1.6% 9.3% 39.7% 18.9%

(%) 1M 6M 12M
120
P/E (x) 5.0x 25.1x 26.5x 8.3x 5.0x 9.0x
Absolute 31.7 132.0 483.2
P/B (x) 1.3x 0.5x 0.5x 0.9x 2.1x 1.8x
Relative 20
30.2 121.3 433.8
Aug 19Dec 19Apr 20Aug 20Dec 20Apr 21Aug 21 Note: All figures are based on consolidated VAS; NP refers to net profit attributable to controlling interests
Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Vietnam Research

Hoa Sen Group JSC (HSG VN) Top pick
Robust net profit in 2021, thanks to big bet on HRC price
Investment points
(Maintain) BUY • The business results of Hoa Sen Group JSC (HSG) in 9M21 (financial year to September 30) were very positive,
with revenue and net profit (NP) of VND33,064bn (+61% YoY) and VND3,308bn (+320% YoY), respectively. The
output of galvanized sheet and steel pipe in 9M21 reached 1,288mn MT (+62% YoY) and 368,368mn MT (+29%
Target price YoY), respectively.
52,200
(VND, 12M)
• FY21 ROE 42.5%, forward EPS of VND8,313/share; potential risks growing
• We believe that HSG’s most remarkable achievement was its ratio of inventory to total assets (Inv/TA) in 3Q21,
Current price which reached 46.3%, 65% higher than the figure in 3Q20. In 1Q18, when the Inv/TA ratio was above 44%, a
38,100
(8/27/21) sudden drop in HRC price caused HSG’s NP to fall by two thirds (1Q18 NP of VND333bn vs. VND95.7bn in
2Q18). We believe that the rapid increase in inventories shows that HSG is relying too much on HRC’s future
price. We view this as HSG’s biggest risk in 4Q21 and 1Q22, unless the company can reduce the ratio of
Expected return 37%
Inv/TA, with China making efforts to reduce iron ore prices.
• We forecast HSG's galvanized sheet and steel pipe output in 2021F to reach 1,539,471 MT (+35% YoY) and
NP (21F, VNDbn) 4,064 512,934 MT (+24% YoY), respectively. We forecast revenue in FY21 at VND43,157bn (+56.7% YoY).
Consensus NP (21F, VNDbn) 4,226 • The increase in inventory stockpiling from 1Q21 and 2Q21 helped 3Q21’s gross profit jump to VND2,953bn
(+178% YoY), equivalent to gross margin of 22.7% (3Q20: 18.4%). We forecast HSG's FY21 gross margin to
EPS Growth (21F, %) 262
reach 20% (vs. 17.5% in FY20), thanks to the large accumulation of inventories in 1H21. Thus, we project FY21
P/E (21F, x) 6.3 net profit at VND4,064bn (+253% YoY).
Market cap (VNDbn) 18,707
Shares outstanding (mn) 489

FY (30/09) 12/17 12/18 12/19 12/20 12/21F 12/22F
Free float (%) 68.4 (%) VN-Index HSG VN
Revenue (VNDbn) 26,149 34,441 28,035 27,543 43,157 39,773
720
Foreign ownership (%) 10.8 OP (VNDbn) 2,104 1,266 979 1,951 5,395 3,580
620
52-week low 10,300 OP margin (%) 8.0% 3.7% 3.5% 7.1% 12.5% 9.0%
520
NP (VNDbn) 1,332 409 361 1,150 4,064 2,593
52-week high 43,000 420
EPS (VND) 2,724 837 739 2,353 8,313 5,305
320
(%) 1M 6M 12M ROE (%) 24.4% 7.9% 6.4% 17.5% 42.5% 22.7%
220
Absolute 3.7 50.3 269.1 P/E (x) 6.6x 6.7x 10.5x 9.3x 6.3x 9.8x
120
Relative P/B (x) 1.2x 0.4x 0.6x 1.5x 2.7x 2.3x
2.1 39.6 219.7
20 Note: All figures are based on consolidated VAS; NP refers to net profit attributable to controlling interests
Aug 19 Dec 19 Apr 20 Aug 20 Dec 20 Apr 21 Aug 21 Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Vietnam Research

Hoa Phat Group JSC (HPG VN) Top pick
Record profits
Investment points
(Maintain) BUY • In 1H21, revenue and net profit (NP) of Hoa Phat Group JSC (HPG) reached a record VND66,868bn (+66% YoY)
and VND16,750bn (+231% YoY), respectively. Of this, net profit in 2Q21 alone was VND9,745bn (+253% YoY).
Despite the impressive NP, we see significant risk exposure for HPG in 3Q21, with the COVID-19 pandemic
Target price (VND, disrupting economic and construction activities.
57,300
12M)
• By contrast, galvanized steel sheet is currently benefiting greatly from the reopening of countries around the
world. We forecast the galvanized steel sheet segment in 2021F will run at full capacity, equivalent to output
Current price of 400,000 MT.
47,700
(8/27/21)
• Construction steel price reached VND17.2mn/MT in June 2021, an increase of 40% compared with the
beginning of 2021. However, as we mentioned, the rapid rise in the price of construction steel led many
companies to suspend construction. This, coupled with the pressure from the COVID-19 pandemic, meant that
Expected return 20.1%
HPG had to reduce construction steel prices from July onwards. According to our survey, HPG's construction
steel price is currently selling at VND15–15.4mn/MT, down 11–14% from the peak in June.
NP (21F, VNDbn) 29,424
• We forecast HPG's 2021 total steel output at 8.89mn MT (+41.5% YoY). We forecast FY21 revenue of
Consensus NP (21F, VNDbn) 29,330 VND57,487bn (+49.6% YoY) from construction steel; VND31,681bn for the steel pipe and galvanized sheet
segment; and VND46,976bn (+788% YoY) for the hot-rolled coil segment. We forecast net profit of
EPS Growth (21F, %) 118% VND29,424bn (+118% YoY) in FY21, with gross profit margin and net profit margin at 24% and 18%,
P/E (21F, x) 8.8x respectively (vs. a respective 21% and 15% in 2020).
Shares outstanding (mn) 4,473

(%) VN-Index HPG VN FY (31/12) 12/18 12/19 12/20 12/21F 12/22F 12/23F
Free float (%) 53.8
420
Revenue (VNDbn) 55,836 63,658 90,119 164,456 165,369 174,945
Foreign ownership (%) 26.4 370
OP (VNDbn) 10,550 9,743 17,120 35,851 30,262 32,715
320
52-week low 17,900 OP margin (%) 18.9% 15.3% 19.0% 21.8% 18.3% 18.7%
270
52-week high 220 NP (VNDbn) 8,601 7,578 13,504 29,424 25,417 26,547
55,500
170 EPS (VND) 1,923 1,694 3,019 6,578 5,683 5,935
(%) 1T 6T 12T 120 ROE (%) 21.2% 15.9% 22.9% 34.2% 24.1% 21.6%
Absolute 70
1.1 39.1 164.4 P/E (x) 13.5x 14.0x 13.8x 8.8x 10.2x 9.7x
20
Relative -0.5 28.4 115.0 Aug 19 Dec 19 Apr 20 Aug 20 Dec 20 Apr 21 Aug 21 P/B (x) 1.4x 1.4x 2.3x 3.0x 2.8x 1.2x
Note: All figures are based on consolidated VAS; NP refers to net profit attributable to controlling interests

Becamex Infrastructure Development JSC (IJC VN) Top pick
Commercial land fund comes to fruition
Investment points
(Maintain) BUY
• From 2017, Becamex Infrastructure Development JSC (IJC) has been poised to benefit from the robust growth
of Vietnam’s real estate market. With a land fund developed in the 2014–2017 period, IJC is reaping the fruits
of its real estate business. The company’s toll collection business also contributes more than VND200bn in
gross profit every year.
Target price (VND, 12M) 36,800 • In 1H21, the company doubled YoY net profit and reached 75% of its full-year target. We forecast net profit to
increase by 78% YoY in FY21 and 21% YoY in FY22, based on booking the Sunflower Villa, IJC urban area, Hoa
Loi residential area and expanded Princetown projects.
Current price
25,950 • IJC’s land fund should ensure stable earnings for the next five years (until 2025). IJC plans to develop the
(8/27/21)
current land fund to ensure supply until 2025. After 2022, IJC will continue to deploy other projects with a total
area of 20 ha. To expand the land supply, the company plans to purchase a 12 ha land fund in the Hoa Loi
residential area in 2021 and invest in a 14 ha land fund at Bau Bang (already purchased years ago through
Expected return 42% payment-in-progress).
• Our valuation of IJC is based on the P/B and RNAV methods, with an average industry peer P/B of 1.84, and
NP (21F, VNDbn) 657 determined the value of IJC’s land bank at VND45,188 per share. Thus, we determined the fair value per share
of IJC at VND36,800, with 42% upside. Accordingly, we recommend Buy for IJC.
Consensus NP (21F, VNDbn) NA
P/E (21F, x) 8.2
Shares outstanding (mn) 217 FY (31/12) 12/17 12/18 12/19 12/20 12/21F 12/22F
Free float (%) 50.2 Revenue (VNDbn) 971 1,246 1,600 2,141 3,071 3,550
OP (VNDbn) 215 268 343 445 801 997
OP margin (%) 22.8 21.5 21.5 20.8 26.1 28.1
52-week low 10,300 NP (VNDbn) 186 233 304 370 657 798
52-week high 32,900 EPS (VND) 1,239 1,536 2,008 2,698 3,027 3,675
ROE (%) 7.3 12.4 15.3 19.0 23.4 21.0
(%) 1M 6M 12M P/E (x) 19.5 14.7 15.3 9.8 8.2 7.17
Absolute 10.6 -13.4 129.5 P/B (x) 4.5 3.7 3.7 1.7 1.6 1.4
Relative 7.7 -25.8 79.4 Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Vietnam Research

Phat Dat Real Estate Development JSC (PDR VN) Top pick
A new era awaits
Investment points
(Maintain) BUY
• In 2021, Phat Dat Real Estate Development JSC (PDR) is forecast to record VND5,147bn in revenue (+31.6%
YoY) and VND2,061bn in NPAT (+68.9% YoY), thanks to the handover of parts of the high-rise areas of
subdivisions 4 and 9 in the Nhon Hoi project. It is also expected that PDR will record about VND600bn in
financial revenue from the Binh Duong Tower project in 3Q21.
Target price (VND, 12M) 116,500 • PDR holds 470 ha of land bank, concentrated in localities with high potential for tourism or economic
development: Binh Dinh, Quang Ngai, Binh Duong, Ba Ria - Vung Tau, Phu Quoc, and Da Nang.
• PDR has entered the industry real estate segment, with a 24-ha industrial park near Cai Mep port (investment
Current price
83,500 capital of over VND1,136bn). Moreover, PDR plans to acquire 6,000 ha of industrial parks in Quang Ngai, Binh
(8/27/21)
Duong, Dong Nai, Vung Tau, and Da Nang.
• The company is also looking to invest in renewable energy, mainly wind power and solar power, with plans to
Expected return 40% produce 650 MW of wind power and 1,300 MW of solar power in 2025. We believe PDR could quickly gain an
advantage in this field, thanks to its large land bank in the Central region.
• Lastly, PDR has established a real estate brokerage company, with the initial goal of distributing its own
NP (21F, VNDbn) 2,061
products and later those of other real estate companies.
Consensus NP (21F, VNDbn) N/A Risks
EPS Growth (21F, %) 77.8 • In the case of a prolonged COVID-19 pandemic and possible economic stagnation, there may be a negative
impact on the company’s development plans, as well as sales.
P/E (21F, x) 27.5

(%) VN-Index PDR VN FY (31/12) 12/18 12/19 12/20 12/21F 12/22F 12/23F
Free float (%) 37.4 550 Revenue (VNDbn) 2,148 3,400 3,911 5,147 8,026 11,086
Foreign ownership (%) 3.6 Operating profit (VNDbn) 560 1,101 1,574 2,585 3,979 5,771
450
OP margin (%) 26.1 32.4 40.2 50.2 49.6 52.1
52-week low 21,300
350 Net profit (VNDbn) 643 874 1,220 2,061 3,172 4,602
52-week high 96,200 EPS (VND) 1,252 1,706 2,381 4,234 6,516 9,454
250
ROE (%) 19.4 21.4 24.7 26.0 29.4 30.8
(%) 1M 6M 12M 11.2 10.3 17.6
150 P/E (x) 27.5 17.9 12.3
Absolute -6.5 65.8 278.8 P/B (x) 2.0 2.0 4.0 7.2 5.3 3.8
Relative -9.3 53.4 228.7 Aug 20 Oct 20 Dec 20 Feb 21 Apr 21 Jun 21 Aug 21

Vinhomes JSC (VHM VN) Top pick
Standing firm through the pandemic
Investment points
(Maintain) BUY
• In 1H21, VHM achieved VND41.7tn in revenue (+82% YoY) and VND15.6tn in net profit (+52% YoY), in line with
our projections.
• We expect that business results in 2H21 will continue to be positive from three big projects, including
Target price Vinhomes Ocean Park, Vinhomes Smart City, and Vinhomes Grand Park. We maintain our forecast of
141.300 VND83,429bn in revenue (+16.6% YoY) and VND31,906bn in net profit (+13.1% YoY).
(VND, 12M)
• Compared with its peers, Vinhomes had very positive business results in the first half of this year. Most of the
projects for sale are mainly concentrated in Northern Vietnam, which was less affected by the pandemic in the
Current price
106,600 second quarter. Moreover, the online sales system makes it easier to conduct sales activities during the
(8/27/21)
pandemic period.
• We calculate pre-sales in 2021 at VND102.7tr (+63.5% YoY), slightly higher than management’s own target of
Expected return 33% VND91tr, of which 60% will come from retail and 40% from block sales.
• For FY22–FY23, we forecast a CAGR for PATMI at 19%, with the debt-to-equity ratio declining to just 17.6%
(FY20: 27.8%). Regarding sales, VHM plans to open for sale three new projects in Hanoi: Wonder Park, Dream
NP (21F, VNDbn) 31,906
City, and Co Loa. From 2022 to 2023, VHM will launch two big projects in Can Gio and Green Ha Long.
Consensus NP (21F, VNDbn) 35,099 Risks
EPS Growth (21F, %) 8 • We remain cautious on rising construction prices, internal trading with other Vingroup subsidiaries, and —
most of all — the lasting economic impact of the pandemic.
P/E (21F, x) 15.7
Shares outstanding (mn) 3,350

FY (31/12) 12/18 12/19 12/20 12/21F 12/22F 12/23F
Free float (%) 18.7
Revenue (VNDbn) 38,664 51,627 71,547 83,429 96,890 104,641
Foreign ownership (%) 23.5 OP (VNDbn) 19,725 29,715 37,305 40,663 41,770 49,365
OP margin (%) 51 57.5 52.1 48.7 43.1 47.2
52-week low 73,500
NP (VNDbn) 14,776 24,319 28,206 31,906 32,706 38,781
52-week high 120,000 EPS (VND) 4,503 6,502 8,315 8,982 9,129 10,982
ROE (%) 57.0 43.8 38.6 26.4 21.9 21.2
(%) 1M 6M 12M P/E (x) 16.3 13.0 10.8 15.7 15.5 12.9
Absolute -2.3 5.4 34.5 P/B (x) 5.7 5.0 3.4 5.1 4.1 3.4
Relative -5.2 -6.7 -15.3 Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Vietnam Research

No Va Land Investment Group Corp (NVL VN) Top pick
Great potential from infrastructure investment
Investment points
(Maintain) BUY
• In 1H21, the total revenue of No Va Land Investment Group Corp (NVL) reached nearly VND7,097bn (+282%
YoY). Of this, revenue from sales was VND6,344bn (+541% YoY), mainly from the handover of the Saigon Royal,
Aqua City, Nova Hills Mui Ne, Victoria Village, Nova World Ho Tram, and Nova World Phan Thiet projects.
• Not including announced projects, NVL still has 3,700 ha of land waiting to be developed, most of which is
Target price (VND, 12M) 131,700 reserved for hospitality real estate and residential projects in and around Ho Chi Minh City. By 2030, it plans to
have 15,000 ha for development, three times larger than its current land bank.
• The average selling prices of several NVL projects (most notably its hospitality real estate products) have risen
Current price
103,700 by 10–20%, an outstanding result amid Vietnam’s fourth COVID wave. We believe prices will remain flat in
(8/27/21)
2H21 and could rise again from FY22 onward.
• NVL projects will benefit greatly from infrastructure investments in the near future: Long Thanh International
Expected return 27% Airport, to be completed in 2025; Phan Thiet International Airport Phase 1 (with a capacity of 2mn
passengers/year) and the Ho Chi Minh City - Dau Giay - Phan Thiet Highway, to be completed in 2022; in
addition, the Dau Giay - Bao Loc, Bien Hoa - Vung Tau expressways are expected to begin construction once
NP (21F, VNDbn) 4,997 the pandemic is under control.
Consensus NP (21F, VNDbn) 4,579 Risks
EPS Growth (21F, %) 26 • We believe the biggest risk for NVL comes from the COVID-19 pandemic, which could delay construction
progress and handover plans, leading to fund shortages. In addition, the possible tightening of credit for the
P/E (21F, x) 35.2 real estate industry in the future is also a potential risk.
(%) VN-Index NVL VN
Shares outstanding (mn) 1,474 FY (31/12) 12/18 12/19 12/20 12/21F 12/22F 12/23F
Revenue (VNDbn) 15,635 11,026 5,241 13,943 18,022 23,127
Free float (%) 30.4 260
Operating profit (VNDbn) 4,678 592 5,049 7,493 6,005 7,982
Foreign ownership (%) 9.4 OP margin (%) 33.7 28.8 36.5 53.7 33.3 34.5
210
Net profit (VNDbn) 3,267 3,387 3,906 4,997 3,787 4,835
52-week low 44,000
160 EPS (VND) 3,533 3,579 4,021 5,073 3,862 4,919
52-week high 121,000 ROE (%) 19.1 15.3 13.9 14.7 9.9 11.0
110 P/E (x) 16.5 16.2 16.4 35.2 46.2 36.3
(%) 1M 6M 12M
P/B (x) 2.9 2.4 2.1 7.7 6.8 6.0
Absolute -2.0 79.7 129.9 60 Note: All figures are based on consolidated VAS; NP refers to net profit attributable to controlling interests
Sep 20 Nov 20 Jan 21 Mar 21 May 21 Jul 21 Sep 21
Relative -4.9 67.6 80.1 Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Vietnam Research

Vietnam Prosperity JSC Bank (VPB VN)
Dream big
Investment points
(Maintain) TRADING BUY

• In 1H21, VPB’s profit before tax increased by 37.2% YoY, without support from one-off income from FE Credit
divestment. We assume that VPB’s FY21 profit will be three times higher than that of FY20, mainly thanks to
divestment. As a result, its capital buffer should increase significantly, which would allow the bank to pursue
high credit growth in the years to come.
Target price
71,500 • There are two key investment risks: 1) High provisioning expenses in 2021, due to the impact of the fourth
(VND, 12M)
wave of COVID-19; and 2) a sharp increase in capital could lead to the inefficient use of capital, which would
eventually cause low ROE — an input of the banking valuation approach.
Current price
60,800 • NIM is expected to face headwinds from the pandemic, as interest income will be negatively affected by
(8/27/21)
interest rate support packages. In addition, we expect business banking (corporate lending and corporate
bonds investments) to drive credit growth in 2H21, lowering the composition of retail banking in its loan book,
which would eventually depress the bank’s interest-earning assets’ yield. Fortunately, huge capital gains from
Expected return 18% divestment could ease funding costs for the bank, mitigating the impact from the fourth wave of COVID-19.
NP (21F, VNDbn) 34,112
EPS Growth (21F, %) 197,9
P/E (21F, x) 5.6
Net interest inc. (VNDbn) 24,702 30,670 32,346 37,274 43,478 49,990
Free float (%) 70.0
Net non-interest inc. (VNDbn) 6,384 5,685 6,687 32,518 8,215 8,215
Foreign ownership (%) 15.4 Operating profit (VNDbn) 9,199 10,324 13,019 42,776 22,695 27,881
52-week low 22,500 Net profit (VNDbn) 7,356 8,260 10,414 34,112 18,153 22,301
EPS (VND) 2,994 3,388 4,242 12,724 6,081 7,361
52-week high 72,700
P/E (x) 23.9 12.9 16.9 5.6 10.0 8.2
(%) 1M 6M 12M BVPS (VND) 14,579 17,996 22,187 35,440 41,714 49,307
P/B (x) 4.9 2.4 3.2 2.0 1.7 1.5
Absolute 8.7 53.0 164.9
Relative 5.9 40.6 114.8 Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Vietnam Research

JS Commercial Bank for Foreign Trade of Vietnam (VCB VN) Top pick
On top of profit
Investment points
TRADING BU
(Upgrade)
Y Staying on top of profit and growth
• We forecast VCB’s 2021 NII and NPBT will grow at 7.65% and 11.54%, respectively, with the expectation that
Target price (VND, 2021 NIM will decrease slightly, from 3% in 2020 to 2.96% in 2021. In 2Q21, VCB’s NIM reached 3.5%, thanks to
112,600 much lower cost of funding and improved CASA balance. However, we maintain our conservative view about
12M)
2021 NIM, to better reflect: 1) the prolonged social distancing situation; and 2) the likelihood that VCB may
have to make more reductions in lending rates (to ease difficulties for customers) starting from 3Q21. In
Current price
96,300 1H21, VCB has supported its customers by reducing interest payments by VND2,115bn for the affected loans
(8/27/21)
(estimated at VND400tn, accounting for ~43.4% of the total loan book).
Attractive valuation, relatively safe in medium term; capital rise story
Expected return 17% • Based on its 1H21 performance, 2021 AGM target, and our additional discounts for risks relating to the
COVID-19 pandemic, we believe VCB will achieve 2021 EPS of VND5,546 and book value of VND30,428.
NP (21F, VNDbn) 20,547 Currently, VCB is trading around the 4-year average trailing P/E and trailing P/B of 17.6x and 3.5x, respectively.
This is a relatively safe valuation in light of VCB’s sizable provisioning. In the near future, if an increase in
Consensus NP (21F, VNDbn) n/a VCB’s charter capital is approved, the bank will have access to new sources of funding to optimize costs. This
EPS growth (21F, %) 23.9 is essential amid the current slow growth in customer deposits due to low interest rates.
P/E (21F, x) 17.53
Net interest inc. (VNDbn) 28,409 34,577 36,285 39,060 44,698 51,123
Free float (%) 25.2
Net non-interest inc. (VNDbn) 3,402 4,307 6,607 8,210 9,021 9,310
Foreign ownership (%) 23.5 Operating profit (VNDbn) 39,278 45,730 49,063 53,845 61,025 68,522
52-week low 80,000 EAT (VNDbn) 14,622 18,526 18,473 20,568 25,299 28,601
EPS (VND) 3,584 4,481 4,470 5,540 6,814 7,703
52-week high 117,200
ROE (%) 25.49% 25.90% 21.11% 19.88% 20.17% 18.80%
(%) 1M 6M 12M P/E (x) 14.9 20.5 21.9 17.53 14.75 13.05
Absolute -1.9 0.6 22.7 P/B (x) 3.1 4.1 3.9 3.20 2.70 2.24
Relative -7.4 -18.0 -38.5 BVPS (VND) 17,283 21,808 25,370 30,428 37,196 44,843

PetroVietnam Power Corporation (POW VN) Top pick
Strong earnings growth in FY22
Investment points
(Maintain) BUY
• In addition to 1H21’s positive influence, selling volume will see a recovery in the Nhon Trach 1 (NT1) and
Nhon Trach 2 (NT2) plants in 2H21. By end-June 2021, long-term prepayment for gas input in NT1 reached
VND703bn (+825% YTD), and we expect NT1 to pay fully for the remaining 77% of output sold under the power
Target price (VND, 12M) 14,000
purchase agreement (PPA) in 2H21. NT2 is forecast to raise its volume in 2H21, following 2H20’s low-based
output.
Current price • However, excluding any one-off reimbursements from EVN for foreign-exchange losses (total one-off revenue
11,350
(8/27/21) and gross profit of VND1,028bn in 4Q20), the bottom line will decrease in 2H21 and FY21.
• Net profit growth is expected at 40% YoY in FY22. The PPA of the Ca Mau 1&2 plants and gas sale agreement
Expected return +23% (GSA) of NT1 are expected to be negotiated by start-FY22, and we forecast the Ca Mau 1&2 and NT1 plants to
record electricity selling volume of 7,096mn kWh (+28% YoY) and 1,785mn kWh (+134% YoY), respectively, in
FY22. Thus, we expect total output to increase by 15% YoY, and interest expense to decline to VND533bn (-17%
NP (21F, VNDbn) 2,149 YoY), with unexpected repair costs excluded from our forecast.
Consensus NP (21F, VNDbn) N/A • POW is currently trading at FY21F P/B of 0.8x and FY22F P/B of 0.7x, 16% and 21% lower, respectively, than its
historical P/B since the listing date in FY19.
EPS growth (21F, %) -10
Risks
P/E (21F, x) 12.5
• COVID-19; joining the competitive generation market; changes in PPAs.
Shares outstanding (mn) 2,342 FY (Dec. 31) 2018 2019 2020 2021F 2022F 2023F
(%) VN-Index POW VN
Free float (%) 87.9 190 Revenue (VNDbn) 32,662 35,374 29,732 32,343 38,403 41,228
170 OP (VNDbn) 3,683 3,935 3,371 2,697 3,830 4,295
150
OP margin (%) 11.3% 11.1% 11.3% 8.3% 10.0% 10.4%
52-week low 9,100 130
NP (VNDbn) 1,921 2,510 2,365 2,149 2,999 3,553
110
52-week high 14,800 EPS (VND) 814 1,028 999 898 1,253 1,485
90
(%) 1M 6M 12M 70 ROE (%) 7.0% 8.9% 7.8% 6.7% 8.9% 10.0%
Absolute 7.1 -10.7 12.5 50 P/E (x) 11.1x 13.6x 12.5x 9x 7.6x
Aug 20 Nov 20 Feb 21 May 21 Aug 21
Relative 4.2 -22.8 -37.3 P/B (x) 0.9x 1x 0.8x 0.8x 0.7x
Source: Bloomberg, Mirae Asset Vietnam Research

PetroVietnam Power Nhon Trach 2 JSC (NT2 VN) Top pick
FY22 bounce-back after a tough year
Investment points
• Momentum from 2H20 low base: We forecast 2H21 net profit to increase by 31% YoY. We expect selling
volume to achieve a 53% YoY rise, compared with 2H20’s low-based output, due to 36-day maintenance (from
Target price September 15 to October 21, 2020). FY21 net profit will decline by 32% YoY.
22,500
(VND, 12M) • Higher volume and lower financial expenses to drive profit growth in FY22: For FY22, we expect net profit
to rebound by 44% YoY, thanks to 6% YoY growth in selling volume and a 56% drop in financial expenses. NT2
Current price paid off its long-term loans by June 2021, which will help the company to save financial expenses and improve
19,150
(8/27/21) cash flow. We estimate net cash flow of VND83bn in FY21 and VND607bn in FY22, versus -VND390bn in FY20.
• NT2 is currently trading at FY21F P/E of 13x, 9% lower than its peers.
Expected return +17% Risk
• Upside risks: Our forecast does not include any one-off dividends from unrealized foreign exchange
NP (21F, VNDbn) 424 differences booked in retained earnings (about VND581bn by end-FY20, equivalent to VND2,000 of cash
dividend per share), once NT2 is free of long-term loans from 2H21 onwards. In addition, the company is
Consensus NP (21F, VNDbn) N/A negotiating to receive reimbursements from EVN for foreign-exchange losses of about VND400bn.
EPS growth (21F, %) -33 • Downside risks: An expected 61% YoY recovery in MFO price in FY21 (the reference of gas input price) and
higher purchase price of around US$6.99/MMBTU for the additional gas source of the Sao Vang Dai Nguyet
P/E (21F, x) 13
gas field will diminish NT2’s competitiveness in the competitive generation market. Thus, mobilization of NT2
Market cap (VNDbn) 5,887 could be lower than our expectation.
Shares outstanding (mn) 288 (%) VN-Index NT2 VN FY (Dec. 31) 2018 2019 2020 2021F 2022F 2023F
190
Free float (%) 32.3 Revenue (VNDbn) 7,670 7,654 6,082 7,638 8,351 7,526
170
OP (VNDbn) 915 887 810 494 661 505
OP margin (%) 11.9% 11.6% 13.3% 6.5% 7.9% 6.7%
130
52-week low 18,400
NP (VNDbn) 782 754 625 424 612 485
110
52-week high 24,900 90
EPS (VND) 2,618 2,540 2,095 1,414 2,040 1,618
(%) 1M 6M 12M 70 ROE (%) 18.0% 19.3% 14.8% 9.9% 14.3% 11.2%
Absolute 11.4 -8.9 -10.5 50 P/E (x) 8.4x 7.6x 11.3x 13x 9.7x 12.3x
Relative 8.6 -21.3 -60.6 P/B (x) 1.7x 1.3x 1.6x 1.3x 1.3x 1.3x

Candon HydroPower JSC (SJD VN) Top pick
Robust earnings flow
Investment points
• We expect Candon HydroPower JSC (SJD) to have an attractive annual dividend yield of 12% in FY20–FY27. We
assume SJD will maintain a payout ratio of at least 95%, resulting in a forecast cash dividend per share of
Target price VND2,000/year over the next seven years.
19,200
(VND, 12M) • In FY28, at the end of BOT contract of the Can Don hydropower plant (77.6 MW, accounting for 75% of total
capacity), we expect the dividend to rise by 189% YoY to VND5,400/share (32% of dividend yield).
Current price
(8/27/21)
17,300 • In FY21–FY28, we expect production volume and earnings to be in line with Vietnam’s normal weather
patterns, which alternate between two rainy years and two drought years.
• We maintain our Trading Buy recommendation and target price of VND19,200 (+11% upside) for SJD, applying
Expected return +11% the dividend discount model (DDM) method and P/B approach. SJD is currently trading at FY21F P/B of 1.3x,
13% lower than its peers’ average of 1.5x and 17% lower than its average historical P/B from FY18.
NP (21F, VNDbn) 161
Consensus NP (21F, VNDbn) N/A
EPS growth (21F, %) 43
P/E (21F, x) 8.2
Shares outstanding (mn) 69 (%) VN-Index SJD VN FY (Dec. 31) 2018 2019 2020 2021F 2022F 2023F
190
Free float (%) 49.0 Revenue (VNDbn) 496 425 331 499 501 407
170
Foreign ownership (%) 22.2 OP (VNDbn) 226 203 139 209 205 172
150
OP margin (%) 46% 48% 42% 42% 41% 42%
52-week low 16,000 130
NP (VNDbn) 191 154 101 161 158 132
110
52-week high 17,900 EPS (VND) 2,768 2,228 1,465 2,096 2,058 1,722
90
(%) 1M 6M 12M 70 ROE (%) 18% 16% 11% 18% 17% 15%
Absolute 1.5 1.5 -6.7 50 P/E (x) 8.9x 9.2x 11.6x 8.2x 8.3x 10x
Relative -1.4 -10.9 -56.9 P/B (x) 1.7x 1.5x 1.3x 1.3x 1.3x 1.3x

Kinh Bac City Development Share Holding Corporation (KBC VN) Top pick
Valuable land fund set to pay off

Investment points
• KBC has about 1,400 ha in available industrial land, which is expected to be enough to fulfill the company’s 6-
(Maintain) BUY
year business plan. KBC’s industrial parks attract multinational groups, such as Foxconn, Oppo, and LG.
• In addition to the IPs, KBC's urban land will also contribute greatly to the company's business results.
Target price Currently, KBC owns a nationwide urban land bank of 917.9 ha. The new Phuc Ninh (114 ha) and Trang Due
56,600 (42 ha) urban areas are completed, and can be put into operation. Another important asset is the Trang Cat
(VND, 12M)
urban area (584 ha), which will be a key project of KBC from FY22 onwards.
• The Trang Cat land fund promises big returns. As the land was accumulated by KBC 10 years ago, the cost of
Current price
37,200 the Trang Cat urban area is relatively low. KBC expects infrastructure investment to be VND11,328.8bn, while
(8/27/21) the value of the area is projected to be about VND60,000bn. The government has approved a masterplan of
1/500 and clearance of 511/585 ha for the project. As per company guidance, KBC may sell a part of this
project to other investors and obtain high earnings in FY22.
Expected return 52%
• For FY21, KBC issued high guidance, with consolidated revenue of VND6,600bn and NPAT of VND2,000bn. The
guidance is based on the plan to lease the land in Quang Chau (76.5 ha), Nam Son Hap Linh (124.7 ha), and
NP (21F, VNDbn) 2,024 Tan Phu Trung (20 ha). The company also plans to book revenue from industrial parks, such as Phuc Ninh and
Trang Due.
• We forecast net earnings to surge by 8x YoY in FY21 and 19% YoY in FY22, based on boosting sales in industrial
EPS Growth (21F, %) 803 land. 1H21, KBC recorded a 11x higher net profit. Our forecasts do not account for the contribution of urban
land.
P/E (21F, x) 8
• Based on a comparison of P/E and P/B to peers, we determined the fair value of KBC at VND56,600/share
Market cap (VNDbn) 18,508 (upside +52%) and recommend Buy for the stock.
(%) VN Index KBC VN FY (31/12) 12/18 12/19 12/20 12/21F 12/22F 12/23F
Free float (%) 65.4 400
Revenue (VNDbn) 2,491 3,210 2,151 5,958 6,554 6,882
OP (VNDbn) 1,162 1,533 450 3,029 3,736 3,552
300 46.6 47.8 20.9 50.8 57.0 51.6
52-week low 13,500 OP margin (%)
250 746 918 224 2,024 2,409 2,218
NP (VNDbn)
52-week high 45,500 200
EPS (VND) 1,588 1,955 477 4,308 5,129 4,721
150 8.6 10.0 2.13 17.07 16.90 13.38
(%) 1M 6M 12M ROE (%)
100 24.6 19.9 81.78 8.0 7.60 8.26
Absolute 16.2 1.0 182.4 P/E (x)
50 2.0 1.9 1.7 1.4 1.2 1.0
Relative P/B (x)
13.4 -11.4 132.3 Aug 20 Oct 20 Dec 20 Feb 21 Apr 21 Jun 21 Aug 21

PetroVietnam Gas Joint Stock Corporation (GAS VN) Top pick
Bid to control the effects of COVID-19
Investment points
(Maintain) TRADING BUY • 1H21 profit after tax completed 62% of full-year plan and 47% of our forecast: In 1H21, GAS recorded
revenue of VND40,272bn (+23.2% YoY), EAT of VND4,359bn (+4.1% YoY), and EPS of VND2,116. GAS completed
57.3% of its revenue target and 62% of the profit plan.
Target price
102,500 • Boosting liquefied natural gas project investment: Investment in the Thi Vai LNG project is ahead of
(VND, 12M)
schedule. GAS is also implementing many important tasks to prepare for LNG consumption.
• Bid to control the effects of COVID-19: The pandemic has disrupted major operations of GAS in the trading
Current price of natural gas and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG). However, revenue and EAT exceeded 1H21 guidance by 6%
86,300
(8/27/21) and 20%, respectively. Notably, LPG revenue soared by 50% YoY, reaching 126% of the 1H21 target.
• Despite strict social distancing measures, implemented in July 2021, electricity consumption recorded a better-
than-expected increase of 5.3% YoY. In August, it is forecast that power production in Southern Vietnam will
Expected return 19%
experience a sharp decline and have a direct impact on GAS’s output. However, we expect the COVID-19
situation to get better from September onward, and we believe GAS will be less impacted by the pandemic,
NP (21F, VNDbn) 9,275 compared with the general market.
Consensus NP (21F, VNDbn) NA
EPS Growth (21F, %) 24.6
P/E (21F, x) 18.5
Shares outstanding (mn) 1,914 (%) VN Index GAS VN

FY (31/12) 12/18 12/19 12/20 12/21F 12/22F 12/23F
170
150 Operating profit (VNDbn) 14,581 15,072 9,923 10,838 12,866 13,24
OP margin 18.2 18.2 13.6 14.6 16.6 15.5
130
52-week low 69,400 NP (VNDbn) 11,454 11,902 7,855 9,275 10,488 10,864
110
EPS (VND) 5,911 6,142 4,028 4,846 5,479 5,676
52-week high 98,900
90 ROE (%) 26.1 25.1 15.9 18.8 19.5 18.1
(%) 1M 6M 12M P/E (x) 14.7 15.3 22 18.5 16.3 15.8
70
Absolute -2.8 -5.3 17.3 P/B (x) 3.7 3.7 3.5 3.4 3 2.7
Relative -4.3 -16.0 -32.1 Aug 20 Oct 20 Dec 20 Feb 21 Apr 21 Jun 21 Source: Company data, MAS Vietnam Research estimates

Sonadezi Chau Duc Shareholding Company (SZC VN) Top pick
Pandemic hinders growth
Investment points
(Maintain) TRADING BUY • In 1H21, Sonadezi Chau Duc Shareholding Company (SZC) reached VND403bn in revenue (+47% YoY) and net
profit of VND189bn (+51.2% YoY); SZC achieved 69% of its revenue target and exceeded 7% of its profit target
for FY21. The positive results came from an improvement in SZC's rental price, helping to increase gross profit
Target price margin in 1H21 to 63.9% (1H20: 56.4%)
49,100
(VND, 12M)
• The business situation in 2H21 will no longer be favorable, due to COVID-19. Ba Ria - Vung Tau province
implemented social distancing measures according to Directive 16 from the Prime Minister. Thus, from July
Current price 2021 onwards, it will be difficult for SZC to sign new land lease contracts. Assuming a successful sales opening,
44,400
(8/27/21) Phase 1 of the Huu Phuoc residential area (with a scale of 20 ha) may contribute VND150bn to the company's
profit in 2021. However, amid the current situation, it is unlikely that the Huu Phuoc project will be launched.
• We still expect the company to show outstanding growth in revenue of VND585bn (+35% YoY) and net profit
Expected return 11% of VND277bn (+49% YoY) in FY21.
NP (21F, VNDbn) 277
Consensus NP (21F, VNDbn) 249
P/E (21F, x) 14.53
Shares outstanding (mn) 100 (%) VN Index S C VN FY (31/12) 12/18 12/19 12/20 12/21F 12/22F 12/23F
190 Revenue (VNDbn) 290 329 433 585 1,286 1,415
Free float (%) 42.0
170 OP (VNDbn) 111 139 213 346 751 781
150 OP margin (%) 38.2 42.2 49.2 59.2 58.4 55.2
52-week low 22,900 130 NP (VNDbn) 97 134 186 277 601 625
52-week high 47,600 110 EPS (VND) 779 1,140 1,860 2,766 6,006 6,250
90 ROE (%) 6.8 9.7 15.3 19.84 36.81 33.78

(%) 1M 6M 12M 15.5 21.24 14.5 6.49 6.24
70
P/E (x)
Absolute 16.4 13.3 66.7 P/B (x) 1.5 3.1 2.7 2.2 2.0
50
Relative 13.6 0.9 16.6 Aug 20 Oct 20 Dec 20 Feb 21 Apr 21 Jun 21 Aug 21 Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Vietnam Research

FPT Corporation (FPT VN) Top pick
Sustaining solid growth
Investment points

• We maintain our forecast for FPT’s revenue and after-tax profit in 2021, at VND35,558bn (+19.2% YoY) and
VND5,394bn (+21.9% YoY), respectively. Newly-signed orders in the technology segment have recovered since
3Q20 (3Q20: +48.4% YoY; 4Q20: +35.8% YoY; 1Q21: +46.3% YoY; 2Q21: +43.9% YoY), being a prerequisite for
strong growth for FPT in the sector going forward.
Target price
102,700 • We forecast 2021–2024 EPS CAGR at 19.6%. FPT is expected to continue its solid growth in its two core
(VND, 12M)
businesses going forward, supported by: 1) FPT’s improved technology ecosystem, along with its focus on the
development of FPT-made products and solutions. With FPT’s efforts towards market-expanding opportunities
Current price and consolidating its technology ecosystem, we believe the company will enjoy sustained growth momentum
92,400
(7/30/21) in the technology segment going forward, with the US, APAC, and domestic markets being key drivers; 2)
accelerating demand for digital transformation in both the domestic and overseas markets, which should lead
to expanded revenue for FPT, and partly contribute to improving its profit margin; and 3) continued growth in
Expected return 11% the telecommunications segment, thanks to upgraded infrastructure and expanded coverage area, as well as
increased data center capacity.
NP (21F, VNDbn) 4,369 • Key risks to watch: 1) A slower-than-expected rally in FPT’s foreign markets; and 2) intensified competition in
the telecommunications segment.
EPS Growth (21F, %) 24.0
P/E (21F, x) 21.2
Shares outstanding (mn) 907 (%) VN-Index FPT VN

FY (31/12) 12/18 12/19 12/20 12/21F 12/22F 12/23F
230
210
OP (VNDbn) 3,122 4,147 4,605 5,956 7,559 8,860
Foreign ownership (%) 49 190 OP margin (%) 13.4 15.0 15.4 16.8 18.2 18.5
52-week low 42,174 170 NP (VNDbn) 2,620 3,135 3,538 4,369 5,566 6,586
150 EPS (VND) 2,683 3,191 3,579 4,444 5,662 6,699
52-week high 98,400
130 ROE (%) 20.0 21.6 21.7 22.9 24.9 25.4
(%) 1M 6M 12M 110 P/E (x) 10.8 13.8 14.4 21.2 16.6 14.0
90
P/B (x) 2.1 2.8 2.9 3.9 3.5 3.0
Absolute -1.7 40.0 114.7
Aug 20 Oct 20 Dec 20 Feb 21 Apr 21 Jun 21 Aug 21 Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Vietnam Research
Relative -3.3 26.1 63.6

APPENDIX 1
Stock Ratings Industry Ratings
Buy : Relative performance of 20% or greater Overweight : Fundamentals are favorable or improving
Trading Buy : Relative performance of 10% or greater, but with volatility Neutral : Fundamentals are steady without any material changes
Hold : Relative performance of -10% and 10% Underweight : Fundamentals are unfavorable or worsening
Sell : Relative performance of -10%
Ratings and Target Price History (Share price (─), Target price (▬), Not covered (■), Buy (▲), Trading Buy (■), Hold (●), Sell (◆))
* Our investment rating is a guide to the relative return of the stock versus the market over the next 12 months.
* Although it is not part of the official ratings at Mirae Asset Daewoo Co., Ltd., we may call a trading opportunity in case there is a technical or short-term material development.
* The target price was determined by the research analyst through valuation methods discussed in this report, in part based on the analyst’s estimate of future earnings.
* The achievement of the target price may be impeded by risks related to the subject securities and companies, as well as general market and economic conditions.
Analyst Certification
The research analysts who prepared this report (the “Analysts”) are subject to Vietnamese securities regulations. They are neither registered as research analysts in any other
jurisdiction nor subject to the laws and regulations thereof. Opinions expressed in this publication about the subject securities and companies accurately reflect the personal
views of the Analysts primarily responsible for this report. Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) LLC (MAS) policy prohibits its Analysts and members of their households from
owning securities of any company in the Analyst’s area of coverage, and the Analysts do not serve as an officer, director or advisory board member of the subject companies.
Except as otherwise specified herein, the Analysts have not received any compensation or any other benefits from the subject companies in the past 12 months and have not
been promised the same in connection with this report. No part of the compensation of the Analysts was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific
recommendations or views contained in this report but, like all employees of MAS, the Analysts receive compensation that is determined by overall firm profitability, which
includes revenues from, among other business units, the institutional equities, investment banking, proprietary trading and private client division. At the time of publication of
this report, the Analysts do not know or have reason to know of any actual, material conflict of interest of the Analyst or MAS except as otherwise stated herein.
Disclaimers
This report is published by Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) LLC (MAS), a broker-dealer registered in the Socialist Republic of Vietnam and a member of the Vietnam Stock
Exchanges. Information and opinions contained herein have been compiled in good faith and from sources believed to be reliable, but such information has not been
independently verified and MAS makes no guarantee, representation or warranty, express or implied, as to the fairness, accuracy, completeness or correctness of the
information and opinions contained herein or of any translation into English from the Vietnamese language. In case of an English translation of a report prepared in the
Vietnamese language, the original Vietnamese language report may have been made available to investors in advance of this report.
The intended recipients of this report are sophisticated institutional investors who have substantial knowledge of the local business environment, its common practices, laws
and accounting principles and no person whose receipt or use of this report would violate any laws and regulations or subject MAS and its affiliates to registration or licensing
requirements in any jurisdiction shall receive or make any use hereof.
This report is for general information purposes only and it is not and shall not be construed as an offer or a solicitation of an offer to effect transactions in any securities or
other financial instruments. The report does not constitute investment advice to any person and such person shall not be treated as a client of MAS by virtue of receiving this
report. This report does not take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual clients. The report is not to be relied upon in
substitution for the exercise of independent judgment. Information and opinions contained herein are as of the date hereof and are subject to change without notice. The price
and value of the investments referred to in this report and the income from them may depreciate or appreciate, and investors may incur losses on investments. Past
performance is not a guide to future performance. Future returns are not guaranteed, and a loss of original capital may occur. MAS, its affiliates and their directors, officers,
employees and agents do not accept any liability for any loss arising out of the use hereof.
MAS may have issued other reports that are inconsistent with, and reach different conclusions from, the opinions presented in this report. The reports may reflect different
assumptions, views and analytical methods of the analysts who prepared them. MAS may make investment decisions that are inconsistent with the opinions and views
expressed in this research report. MAS, its affiliates and their directors, officers, employees and agents may have long or short positions in any of the subject securities at any
time and may make a purchase or sale, or offer to make a purchase or sale, of any such securities or other financial instruments from time to time in the open market or
otherwise, in each case either as principals or agents. MAS and its affiliates may have had, or may be expecting to enter into, business relationships with the subject companies
to provide investment banking, market-making or other financial services as are permitted under applicable laws and regulations.
No part of this document may be copied or reproduced in any manner or form or redistributed or published, in whole or in part, without the prior written consent of MAS.

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Strategy report | Sep 2021

VIETNAM ECONOMY AND STOCK MARKET

I. Vietnam economy 8M21 review and economic outlook update 3

2 | Vietnam focus: Strategy Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research

Source: GSO, Bloomberg, Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research compilation

4 | Vietnam focus: Strategy Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research

GDP growth forecast %p change compared

5 | Vietnam focus: Strategy Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research

❑ We expect Vietnam to achieve herd immunity by early-2022 at the earliest.

6 | Vietnam focus: Strategy Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research

Monthly IIP Manufacturing IIP in 8M21

IIP Manufacturing and processing IIP Basic metals 30.4

Source: GSO, Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research compilation

7 | Vietnam focus: Strategy Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research

(Point) PMI 3-month average PMI

Source: Bloomberg, Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research compilation

8 | Vietnam focus: Strategy Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research

widened in 8M21 estimated US$1.3bn in August.

Trade balance (L) (% YoY) Exports Imports

Source: GSO Source: GSO

9 | Vietnam focus: Strategy Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research

10 | Vietnam focus: Strategy Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research

Public disbursement slowed in 7M21 Directives/Decisions to promote public investment

Plan (L) Disbursement (L)

11 | Vietnam focus: Strategy Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research

Registered FDI (L) Registered

12 | Vietnam focus: Strategy Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research

Registered FDI by locality in 8M21

Source: GSO, Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research compilation

13 | Vietnam focus: Strategy Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research

Source: GSO Source: The Conference Board

14 | Vietnam focus: Strategy Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research

Enterprise establishment/dissolution situation Average registered capital of newly-established enterprises (% YoY)

15 | Vietnam focus: Strategy Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research

(VND) GBP CNY VND PHP

16 | Vietnam focus: Strategy Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research

Inflation CPI by industry (%)

(% Inflation Core inflation 8M21 avg.

4.0 Beverage and Tobacco 1.92 1.59 0.22 1.63

Housing and Construction Materials 4.34 3.35 0.00 1.98

Culture, Entertainment and Tourism -0.92 -0.38 -0.03 -1.14

Other Services 1.24 0.89 0.00 1.59

17 | Vietnam focus: Strategy Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research

18 | Vietnam focus: Strategy Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research

19 | Vietnam focus: Strategy Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research

Global performance monitor: Monthly change (%)

20 | Vietnam focus: Strategy Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research

Key events in August:

Third COVID-19 1) The State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) issues Circular

800 Second COVID-

Source: Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research, Bloomberg

21 | Vietnam focus: Strategy Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research

22 | Vietnam focus: Strategy Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research

Top 20 leading contributors Top 20 lagging contributors

Price change Index impact Price change Index impact

23 | Vietnam focus: Strategy Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research

Market liquidity heatmap