Arab Population

In Judea, Samaria & Gaza

The Million Person Gap

PCBS PCBS: Palestine Central Bureau of Statistics

2009 Population 4 Million
Report prepared by:

Fewer Births The American-Israel

Demographic Research
Net Negative Migration
Group
(AIDRG)
Jerusalem Arab Population
Double-Count USA Research Team
Bennett Zimmerman
Roberta Seid, Ph.D.
Residents Living Abroad Michael Wise, Ph.D.

Israel Research Team

Study Result Yoram Ettinger
Brig. Gen (Ret.) David Shahaf
2009 Population 2.8 Million Prof. Ezra Sohar
Dr. David Passig
Bennett Zimmerman & Roberta Seid, Ph.D. Avraham Shvout
Copyright 2009All Rights Reserved Yakov Faitelson
 Israeli and Arab Population Data
Judea, Samaria and Gaza
(1996 & 2007)
• PCBS 2007 population total for
Millions of People Judea & Samaria and Gaza was
3.8MN 3.8 million, 90% above the ICBS
4.0 1996 figure of 2.1 million.

3.0 The two central bureaus of statistics

2.1MN cannot be accurate since…
2.0
• Such growth would indicate a
compound annual growth rate
1.0
of 5.5% per annum, almost twice as
high as the leading countries in the
world, such as Afghanistan, Sierra
1996 2007 Leon, Somalia, Niger and Eritrea.
Israel Central Palestine Central
Bureau of Statistics Bureau of Statistics
(ICBS) (PCBS)
Source: ICBS, Final Assessments of Population in Judea, Samaria & Gaza, 1996, Julia Zemel, December 22, 1997;
Palestine Central Bureau of Statistics, Demographic Indicators of the Palestinian Territory, 1997 - 2015
 Arab Population in Judea&Samaria and Gaza
1997 PCBS Census and Projection
Millions of People (1997 - 2015)
6.0
• The December 1997 census is the
basis for the current PCBS data.
5.0

• 1997 PCBS: 2.78 Million

4.0

3.0 • 2009 PCBS: 4 Million

2.0 •PCBS assumption: 3.1% annual

population growth rate.
1.0

‘97 2000 2007 2010 2015

Source: Palestine Central Bureau of Statistics, Demographic Indicators of the Palestinian Territory, 1997 - 2015

When 2007 PCBS population numbers (3.8 million) is combined with Israeli Arab
population (1.4 million), the number of Arabs is now – supposedly - almost equal to the
number of Jews west of the Jordan River. Given this rapid Arab growth,
Israeli Jews would rapidly – supposedly - become a minority.
 Arab Population
In Judea, Samaria & Gaza
The Million Person Gap

Methodology

Population measurement requires accurate recording and verification of:

Beginning Base Population

+ Births
- Deaths
+ Immigration
- Emigration
= Ending Base Population

Study investigated the 1997 PCBS numbers, factor by factor, against data
released each year by other PA and Israeli governmental agencies.
 Examination of the base population data
(1997 PCBS Census)

Millions of People
B efore C ensus C ensus Era
4.0

3.0 24K Half-Year Growth

2.78MN
210K Jerusalem Arabs
2.27MN
2.111MN
2.0 325K Residents Abroad

113K Additional Increase

1.0 648K Total excess over ICBS

0
December 1996 December 1996 June 1997
ICBS Report PA Health Ministry PCBS Census

A 30% inflation is documented in the 1997 census, which is the Palestinian base population data.
3%-5% was the ICBS-PCBS gap until the 1997 census.
ICBS’ accuracy is validated, when examined against Palestinian agencies.
 Palestine Central Bureau of Statistics Census
Inclusion of Residents Living Abroad

“We counted 325,000 people living outside of the Palestinian

lands for more than one year, who carry Palestinian ID cards
and can return at any time. This number is a minimum, and is not
precise because we could not contact all the families living abroad.”

Hassan Abu Libdah

Head of PCBS
News Conference held at Al-Bireh
“The First Results of the Census”
February 26, 1998

According to internationally accepted demographic standards, overseas residents who are

abroad for over a year are not counted demographically. Israel abides by such standards;
the PCBS does not.
 Palestine Central Bureau of Statistics Census
Inclusion of Residents Living Abroad
http://www.pcbs.org/phc_97/phc_covr.aspx
Census Coverage
A comprehensive population enumeration always depends on the essence and the nature of the census. In general, population
censuses cover all persons residing within the limits of a certain country, at a specific time. A population census is
based on the following:
1. De-facto Approach: Based on the enumeration of individuals according to their existence in the area of enumeration at
census moment, regardless of their usual place of residence.
2. De-jure Approach: Based on the enumeration of individuals according to their usual place of residence, regardless of
their presence at the census moment.
For the first ever Palestinian census, the de-facto approach was adopted with some
exceptions. The census count included the following categories:

A – The Categories underwent complete data collection.

1. All persons present in the Palestinian territories on the census reference date, irrespective of nationality, purpose of stay and
place of residence in the Palestinian territories.
2. All temporarily living abroad (for one year prior to the night of the reference date) and who have a usual place of residence
in the Palestinian territories. Those persons are enumerated as parts of their households.
3. All Palestinians studying abroad irrespective of the study period and the period of stay abroad
along with all Palestinian detainees in the Israeli jails regardless of the detention period.
B – Palestinian abroad: Categories underwent data collection on their numbers and sex
only This category includes Palestinians who live abroad for more than one year
and who have a usual place of residence in the Palestinian territories and have
identity cards (except for students and detainees enumerated in the previous
category) irrespective of the purpose of stay abroad.
Palestine Central Bureau of Statistics, 2007
Census Coverage (per PCBS website)

• “The PHC-2007 has been conducted on the

basis of de-facto, taking into consideration
minor local circumstances.”

• “This approach is identical to the

implementation of PHC-1997.”
Millions of People
PA Central Election Commission (CEC)
2.5 Eligible Adult (18 year old and older) Documentation
October 2004 & January 2005 Voting Reports

2.0 1.85MN
“Adults expected to be 18 and above by 2004”
1.5MN
1.5 13% 1.3MN
Abroad 1.3MN 1.3M

1.0
87%
Resident
0.5

0
CEC October 2004 Voting Report ICBS 1996 PCBS Forecast
• 1.3MN Eligible Voters + 8 Years (2004)
Resident in Territories Less deaths and emigration
• 200K Eligible Voters Abroad

The October 2004 CEC Voting Report, with specific information on 1.3 million adults living in the
Territories, undermines the original 1997 PA Projection and confirms that the 1997 Census Base
included Palestinians living abroad. The residential base measured by the ICBS in the mid-1990s
produces an exact match with the 1.3 million residents found on current CEC voter rolls.
 Births/Year
PCBS Birth Numbers
vs. Births documented by PA Ministry of Health
PCBS
Thousands
PA Ministry of Health
of Births/Year
160

120

80

40

0
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
A 40,000 annual gap between PCBS births and PA Ministry of Health recorded births.
Documentation covers village mid-wives and clinics. Home deliveries: around 5%
only.
Documentation is essential for daily movement, for using international passages
(800,000 annual exits/entries), for UNRWA child allowances, for access to Israel
 Births/Year
Births documented by PA Ministry of Health
confirmed by PA Ministry of Education Records
Thousands PA Ministry = PCBS numbers = PA Ministry of Health
of Births/Year Of Education documentation
160 1st Grade Students
6 Years Later

120

2003 2004
80

40

0
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
About 100% of 6 year old children register to first grade, according to the World Bank,
European and Israeli studies. A high dropout rate starts at 3rd grade.
PA Ministry of Health’s documentation of births is compatible with PA Ministry of
Education’s documentation of first graders registration (6 years later). Both are well below
PCBS numbers.
 Migration/Year
PCBS 1997 Net-Immigration Assumption
Net Entries(Exits)
In Thousands/Year
160

120

80

40

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

PCBS population numbers included an assumption of 45,000 net immigration annually,

beginning 2001 until 2015.
The eruption of Intifadah II in Sept. 2000 has precluded net immigration, but Israel’s
demographic establishment never examined the PCBS and was unaware of its assumptions.
 Migration/Year
PCBS 1997 Net-Immigration Assumption
Net Entries (Exits) VS
In Thousands/Year
Actual Israel Border Net-Emigration Data
160

120
= PCBS 1997
Projection

80 = Actual Israel
Border Data

40
Post Oslo

1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

The PCBS 1997 assumption of mass immigration into Judea, Samaria and Gaza: 45,000 annually
since 2001! Border data showed net emigration of 10-20,000 persons each year since 1997:
10,000 - 2004, 16,000 – 2005, 25,000 – 2006, 25,000 – 2007, 28,000 - 2008. Since 1950, only 6
years featured net-immigration. Thus, the PCBS included – since 2001 - 60-70,000 persons each
year that were not present.
 Migration to Israel’s Green Line
Legal migrants only – Double Count
1993 - 2003

From 1993 – 2003, over 150,000 residents of Judea & Samaria and Gaza received Israeli IDs
under family reunification programs (105,000 since 1997). They are doubly-counted (as “Green
Line” Arabs and as West Bankers. This phenomenon was stopped by a 2003 amendment to the
Citizenship Law (Source: November 2003 Population Authority, Israel Ministry of Interior
Report.)
 Study Results
Year by Year Detail

Population models should be transparent with clearly defined starting, intermediate and ending
points, so that researchers can assess the data, factor by factor. Many current estimates use
information released by the PCBS to build population forecasts.
 Study Results: 2004-2008

PCBS’ 2.5 million:

66% “inflation”

PCBS’ 4 million:
1.2 million gap
Population models should be transparent with clearly defined starting, intermediate and ending
points, so that researchers can assess the data, factor by factor. Many current estimates use – without
scrutiny - information released by the PCBS to build population forecasts.
 Errors in PCBS Projection
The Million Person Gap
Millions of People (By Mid-Year 2004) PCBS Numbers:

}
4.0 3.83 Million Total
Deaths Difference: 33K 2.42 Million J&S
1.41 Million Gaza
PA MOH Births Difference: 238K

Birth Alterations Difference: 70K

3.5
Immigration &
Emigration Error Difference: 310K
“The 1.34 Million
Migration to Israel Difference: 105K
Person Gap”
3.0 Jerusalem Arabs Difference: 210K

Residents
Living Abroad Difference: 325K

Difference: 113K
2.5 Jump Over ICBS

AIDRG Findings:
2.49 Million Total
1.41 Million J&S
2.0 1.08 Million Gaza
 Population Breakdown
Israel, Judea, Samaria and Gaza
(2009)

Israeli West Bank Israeli West Bank Israeli

Arabs Arabs Arabs Gaza Arabs Arabs
Jewish Affiliated Arabs

Jews Jews Jews

Israel Israel Israel

J&S
& J&S and Gaza

81% Jewish 59% Jewish

4:1 Jewish/Arab Ratio

67% Jewish 3:2 Jewish/Arab Ratio

2:1 Jewish/Arab Ratio

Since the 1960s
 Judea & Samaria
Trend of Population Growth
(1950-2008)
Annual Population
Growth Rates

Israeli Administration ’67-92

4.0% Pre-Fall Surge:
Health Improvements
Infant mortality
•
declines 1992-2008
Life expectancy increases -- Population Growth rate 1.8%
3.0%
Net-emigration decreases -- Declining Birthrate
--High Emigration
Jordanian Period 1950-1967
2.0% Low population Growth rate 0.9% Family Planning
--
High fertility rate --Teen pregnancy declines
High infant mortality rate --Record High Median Wedding Age
1.0% High Net-Emigration --Expanded Education
--Record divorce rate
--From rural to poor urban

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2008

As evidenced by global precedents of integration between Western World and Third

World societies, an initial significant growth is a prelude to a substantial decline.
Growth rates in J&S are experiencing the normal stages of population development.
Growth rates for J&S are approaching levels of a developed Western society and trend
toward Israeli Jews growth rates.
 Arab Population
In the West Bank & Gaza
The Million Person Gap

Contact Information

In USA:
Mr. Bennett Zimmerman
Ph: 310-617-4180
E-mail: ben@aidrg.com

Arab Population in the West Bank and Gaza: The Million Person Gap was presented at
the January 2006 Herzliya Conference. The Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies
published the Study in February 2006. The original study can be found at
www.aidrg.com
 Total Fertility Rates (TFR) Gap
“Green Line” Jews and Moslems
Total Fertility Rate
Births/Woman
1960 – 2008
10 9.23 9.22

8.47
Jews Moslems
8
7.25

6 5.54

4.70 4.67 4.67 4.36

4 3.5
3.39 3.36
3.28 3.00 2.8
2.80 2.79 2.62 2.71
2.62

0
1960/ 1965/ 1970/ 1975/ 1980/ 1985/ 1990/ 1995/ 2004 2008
Source: 1964 1969 1974 1979 1984 1989 1994 1999
Israel Central Bureau of Statistics

Forecasts for Israel apply past high fertility rates to future forecast, despite long-term decline in
Israel Arab fertility. Fertility gap plunged from 6 births per woman to 0.7.
2008 – Arab fertility rate declines to 3.5 births per woman; Jewish fertility rate grows to 2.8.
 Total Fertility Rates (TFR) Gap
Total Fertility Rate “Green Line” Jews and Arabs
Births/Woman
2000 - 2008
5 Jews Arabs

4.40
4 4.22 4.17
4. 00

3 3.5
2.73 2.71 2.8
2.66 2.64

0
2000 2002 2003 2004 2007
Israeli Jewish Fertility rates, the highest in the industrialized world, have stabilized and
even
started to rise across the board in all sectors (Orthodox, secular, and Olim from USSR).
After plateauing from 1985 – 2000, Israeli Arab fertility rates have been steadily falling.
2007 – 3.5 Arab TFR and 2.8 Jewish TFR. From a 6 children gap
 Demographic Momentum in the “Green Line”
Jews Arabs 121
Jewish Births vs. Arab Births 112
1995 - 2009 109.2
Thousands
of births 103.6 104.4 105.2

100 95.6 95.2 98.6

91.3 92.6
88.3
80.4
80

60

40.8 41.4 40.9 41.4

39.4 40.9 39 39 39
40 36.5 36.2 38.8 38.8

20

0
1995 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2009
Source: Israel Central Bureau of Statistics

Since 1995 (80,400) annual Jewish births have increased by 50% (121,000
in 2009), while Arab births have stabilized at 39,500. Jewish births
accounted to 69% in 1995, 74% in 2007 and 75.5% in 2009, trending upward.
 “Gallup” Survey on Ideal Family Size
Convergence in Fertility Intentions

Children per Family

8 What is the ideal number of children in a family?

6
5.26
5.07
4.52 4.55 4.40
4.17
4 3.68 3.88 3.68 3.59
3.85
3.52 3.73
3.06
Traditional
Orthodox

2 20-29
15-19
Secular

20-29
15-19
30-49

30-49
50+

50+
0
Israel Israel West Bank
Source:
Jews Arabs Arabs
Gallup News Service, “Attitudes Toward Family Size Among Palestinians and Israelis”, Lydia Saad, March 17 2006

Desired family size is now the same for Israeli Jews and Israeli Arabs

Young West Bank Arabs desire a family size only one-half a child higher than young Israelis
 “Gallup” Survey on Ideal Family Size
Convergence in Fertility Intentions

“Gallup” Comments

“There is not a large difference [in fertility intentions] in a region where fertility could be a
potent political tool. . . The possibility that the once burgeoning Palestinian Arab population
in Israel, the West Bank, and the Gaza Strip will eventually be the majority in that region has
been widely accepted as a looming threat to Israel. . . However the assumption that
Palestinians will eventually out-number the Jewish population in the region has come
under recent criticism.

“The recent Gallup data is instructive because there is clearly an element of personal
choice in having children, and thus Gallup finds strong evidence that people’s preferred
family size has a strong bearing on actual fertility rates. Gallup has been measuring
American’s notion of ideal number of children since 1936, the trend lines for preferred
number of children and the U.S. are quite parallel.

“Gallup finds no difference in preferred number of children by age in Israel, but does
among [younger] Palestinians.
-- Lydia Saad, “Attitudes Toward Family Size Among Palestinians and Israelis”,
Gallup News Service, March 17 2006
 Fertility Assumptions in ICBS Forecast for Israel: Jews
Israel’s Official Forecast
(2000 - 2025)
Total Fertility Rates
4.00

3.50

3.00

2.6 2.6 High Scenario

2.50
2.4 Medium Scenario
2.1 Low Scenario
2.00
2000 - 05 2021 - 25

The ICBS assumed Jewish fertility rates (births expected per woman) would decrease from
2.6 in 2000 to 2.4 in 2025.

Net Immigration was expected to drop from 10,000/year to 7,000/year in the high case
and 4,000/year to -2,000 emigration in the low case
 Actual Fertility vs. Assumptions in ICBS Forecast for Israel: Jews
(2000 - 2007)

Total Fertility Rates

4.00

Actuals
3.50
2000 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
2.66 2.64 2.73 2.71 2.77 2.8 2.8
3.00

2.6 2.6
2.50
2.4

2.1
2.00
2000 - 05 2021 - 25

Actual fertility rates for the Jewish sector were higher - annually - than the highest rates
Considered by the ICBS in its forecast.
 Fertility Assumptions in ICBS Forecast for Israel: Israel Moslems
Israel’s Official Forecast
Total Fertility Rates (2000 - 2025)
4.7 4.7 High Case Scenario
4.50

4.00

3.8 Medium Case Scenario

3.50

3.00

2.6 Low Case Scenario

2.50

2.00
2000 - 05 2021 - 25

The ICBS assumed Moslem fertility rates (births expected per woman) would remain
stable at 4.7 in the high case scenario and gradually drop to 2.6 in the low case scenario

No immigration or emigration scenarios were considered for the sector

 Actuals vs. Assumptions in ICBS Forecast for Israel: Israel Moslems
(2000 - 2004)
Total Fertility Rates
4.7 4.7
4.50 Moslem

4.00 Actuals
3.8
2000 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
3.50 Moslems 1,090 83% 4.74 4.58 4.50 4.36
Total Arab Christians 116 9% 2.55 2.29 2.31 2.13
Druze 112 8% 3.07 2.77 2.85 2.66
3.00 Total Arab 1,318 4.40 4.22 4.17 4.02 3.9 3.6 3.5

2.6
2.50

2.00
2000 - 05 2021 - 25

Actual fertility rates for Moslems (especially) and for Arabs

were decreasing 20 years faster than ICBS projections.
 West Bank & Gaza Education Sector Analysis
The World Bank, September 7, 2006
http://siteresources.worldbank.org/INTWESTBANKGAZA/Resources/EducationSectorAnalysisSept06.pdf

 The enrollment rate for grade 1 is almost 100%.

 PCBS projected a 24% increase in age 6 during 1999-2005
(almost 4% population growth rate expected).
 Enrollment to 1 grade decreased by 8% (page 8).
 32% gap cause: fertility decline and emigration increase.
 Higher education enrollment doubled during last decade.
44% of 18-21 age group were in full-time education in
2004. Similar enrolment by refugees and non-refugees.
22% of 25-29 year old women have post-primary
education, compared with 10% among 45-49 year
old women.
 UNESCO’s Director General, May 22, 2007: “an abrupt
slowdown in the rate of growth... also in many countries
where women have only limited access to education and
employment... There is not the slightest reason to assume
that the decline in fertility will miraculously stop just at
replacement level (2.1 births per woman)...”

 UN Population Division: Sharp decline in Muslim fertility

rates – except Yemen and Afghanistan – is mostly
responsible for a 25% reduction in population projections.

 Dr. Nicholas Eberstadt, American Enterprise Institute,

Washington, DC: “[AIDRG] caught the demographic
profession asleep at the switch.