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It appears that the imports of carbon black have been increasing by about 10% annually.

Imports of Carbon Black (thousands Imports of Carbon Black (thousands


Year Year
of tons) of tons) Snap a photo from your
phone to post a questio
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2006 92.0 2010 135.0 download link

2007 101.0 2011 149.0


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2008 112.0 2012 163.0 the app. Standard messaging rates may app

2009 124.0 2013 180.0


My Textbook Solutions
a. Determine the logarithmic trend equation.

b. By what percent did imports increase, on the average, during the period? Add a Ad
textbook text
Statistical
c. Estimate imports for the year 2016. Techniques...
16th Edition

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Step-by-step solution

Step 1 of 4

a.

A log time series is represented by the equation

Here

• log(y) is the log base 10 of the dependent variable

• t is the time period, this is not logged

• log(b) is the slope, 1 – b represents the average percent change

• log(a) is the y intercept (when t = 0).

Note, a b = 1 represents no change from prior year, b < 1 signifies a decrease, and b > 1 is an
increase. However, b cannot be less than 0.

The data is given below

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Chapter 18, Problem 8E 2 Bookmarks Show all steps: ON

Excel’s graphing tools can be used to graph the data and produce a least squares trendline.

To graph this in Excel, select insert scatter plot.

• Horizontal category select the X variables: code

• Legend series add the Y variables: LogImports

Follow the steps to add a trendline. The trendline option used by Excel is the least square
method:

• A linear trend-line can be added by clicking on a data point and selecting add trendline

• To get the equation check “display equation”

This produces the following plot.


2 students bookmarked this
problem. Save it for later.

The least square equation shown is “y = 0.0415x – 1.9233”. However, the y on the Excel is
actually LogImports, so it can be represented as

Comment

Step 2 of 4

b.

The equation found is

This means log(b) is 0.0415. The percent increase is represented by b which can be found as
below

This means there on average there is a 10% increase in imports.

Comment

Step 3 of 4

c.

The least square equation found is

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11 for t to estimate the next log(y) variable at year 2016

Chapter 18, Problem 8E 2 Bookmarks Show all steps: ON

Comments (1)

Step 4 of 4

The estimated log(y) variable is 2.38, use this as the power of 10 to find the y variable

The estimated y, imports in 1000s of tons is 239.97.

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