climate misinformation Simon Holmes à Court

December 2021
“What’s the plan?”
Integrated System Plan (‘Step-change’)
A grid in transition

Source: OpenNEM
Gas power generation in the NEM

Source: OpenNEM
Coal capacity

Source: Independent Review into the Future Security of the National Electricity Market (“Finkel Review”) 2017
Coal capacity – falling fast

Source: Independent Review into the Future Security of the National Electricity Market (“Finkel Review”) 2017
Renewables displaced coal and gas

Source: OpenNEM
Thermal coal… not dead, but terminal

Australian Thermal Coal Exports

Thermal coal exports… not so big
Jobs are very manageable

Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics, Labour Force, Australia, Detailed, Quarterly

Source: opennem.org.au/emissions/au
Source: opennem.org.au/emissions/au
Source: opennem.org.au/emissions/au
Source: opennem.org.au/emissions/au
Source: opennem.org.au/emissions/au
Source: opennem.org.au/emissions/au
We know how to decarbonise…

• stop using fossil fuels

Replace fossil fuels with:

• ‘green’ electrons wherever possible (“electrify everything”)
• ‘green’ molecules elsewhere (hydrogen & derivatives)

Once in a generation investment opportunity:

• critical minerals + ‘green’ steel + ‘green’ aluminium
• ‘green’ hydrogen
Hydrogen is the ‘swiss army knife’ of energy…
Hydrogen has competition
Case study #1: Green Ammonia exports… AREH

15000
AVERAGE OUTPUT,

10000
MWH

5000

0
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23
24 HOUR PERIOD
Clean energy exports… AREH
Case study #2: Western Green Energy Hub
 Case study #3: Hunter Valley Industrial Precinct

Sunshot Industries: 3 Steps towards making Newcastle an industrial superpower

1 2 3
Battery storage Direct Aluminium
Draw in Internationally competitive
reduction iron smelting
electricity electricity pricing making
at optimal
price
With H2
Demand Electrolyser
load drives
further RE Scale up
Scale up electrolyser
generation
investment
H2 electricity
assets

Low emissions iron Low emissions aluminium

Ammonia (Hot briquetted iron - HBI)

Zero carbon Zero carbon

fertiliser explosives Electric Arc
Furnace
• Replace imports Downstream Export Aluminium:
• Improve supply chain security Export HBI: manufacturing: • LME low carbon aluminium
• Reduce emissions • Japan • Value-added • Japan
• Position NSW agriculture as low • Molycop • South Korea products • South Korea
emissions • Infrabuild • EU • HV cables • EU
• Reduce carbon intensity of mining

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