Buditama 2021 IOP Conf. Ser. Earth Environ. Sci. 716 012013

IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science
PAPER • OPEN ACCESS
Effects of climate change on dryland agriculture vegetation index in

Nangapanda, East Nusa Tenggara
To cite this article: Gilang Buditama et al 2021 IOP Conf. Ser.: Earth Environ. Sci. 716 012013
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This content was downloaded from IP address 114.124.138.188 on 12/04/2021 at 15:17

The 1st Journal of Environmental Science and Sustainable Development Symposium IOP Publishing
IOP Conf. Series: Earth and Environmental Science 716 (2021) 012013 doi:10.1088/1755-1315/716/1/012013
Effects of climate change on dryland agriculture vegetation

index in Nangapanda, East Nusa Tenggara
Gilang Buditama1, Halvina G Saiya1*, Nadya P Putri1

1
School of Environmental Science, Universitas Indonesia, Jakarta, 10430, Indonesia.
*halvina.grasela@ui.ac.id
Abstract. Dryland agriculture produces agricultural commodities in the food and plantation
sectors. However, the potential for dryland agriculture in Indonesia is one of the agricultural
bases, which is also threatened by climate anomalies. This research aims to examine one of the
climatic factors, namely Land Surface Temperature (LST), which is influenced by
environmental carrying capacity factors, namely the vegetation index on the productivity of
dryland agriculture. The vegetation indexes used are NDVI, SAVI, and EVI, using Landsat 5
TM and Landsat 8 OLI imagery for 1999, 2004, 2009, 2014, and 2019 then analyzed by
statistical regression tests. Another data used are temperature comparison data from the
Meteorological Climatological and Geophysical Agency of Indonesia as known as Badan
Meteorologi Klimatologi dan Geofisika (BMKG), agricultural productivity data from Statistics
Indonesia as known as Badan Pusat Statistik (BPS), and Agricultural Counseling Agency of
Nangapanda District as known as Badan Penyuluhan Pertanian (BPP). The result obtained
from this research is that there is a significant inverse relationship between the vegetation
index and LST. Later, the increase in LST can cause a decrease in the productivity of dryland
agriculture.
1. Introduction
The agricultural sector is one of the sectors that positively contribute to the national economy's
growth. The agricultural sector's various sectors are limited to crops, plantations, and animal farms but
are characteristic of Indonesia's diverse landscapes, creating specificities in agricultural land types,
including the products produced. One example is dryland agriculture. In Indonesia, dryland agriculture
is spread across several provinces, namely Sumatra; East Kalimantan; East Java; Bali; parts of
Sulawesi, Maluku and North Maluku; Bali, West Nusa Tenggara, and East Nusa Tenggara, with a total
area of 13.3 million hectares [1] [2]. The province with the broadest dryland agricultural potential is
East Nusa Tenggara as known as Nusa Tenggara Timur (NTT), with an area of around 3.3 million
hectares, where its area is equivalent to 71.7% of the total area of NTT [1] [2]. Dryland agriculture is
the dominant type of agriculture in NTT, and this is due to its supportive topographical conditions and
a dry season that is longer than the rainy season [3] [4]. Most of the population lives in rural areas and
is active in farming [5] [6]; this is because, since a long time ago, they have depended on agricultural
activities [4] [5]. It is starting from the use of a small land around their house into crops [4] [5] [6], to
the potential for plantations that have continued to grow until now. This condition is the most
extensive agricultural base that the government should pay more attention to this. The facts show that
most of the agricultural systems run by the people of NTT are agricultural systems that are still
traditionally based [5] [7]. This traditional system has not received much-advanced support from
technology, nor has more sophisticated technology-based analysis to support dryland agricultural
Content from this work may be used under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 licence. Any further distribution
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activities in NTT. This kind of support should continue improving their farming knowledge and
techniques, especially in cultivating dryland agriculture.
Ende is one of the regencies in NTT, which has many plantation centers. The data show that this
area produces plantation production and the production of crops from dryland agriculture, and there is
also lowland rice, which is a product of wetland agriculture [8]. One of the sub-districts with a high
level of agricultural productivity in Ende Regency is Nangapanda District [8]. Nangapanda sub-district
is 209.06 km2, mostly of dry land with a slope between 1-65º and located at an altitude of 0-800
meters above sea level [6]. Some of the agricultural commodities that have been developed and which
have been harvested many times include crops (rice, maize, tubers); plantation commodities (cocoa,
coconut, candlenut, coffee, cloves), most of which are the result of dryland agriculture, which is about
90% dominating agricultural land in Nangapanda [6]. This condition shows that sustainable
agricultural management's potential can be carried out, provided it is supported by an analysis of the
right climate conditions and environmental carrying capacity and better agricultural technology.
Analysis of climate conditions and environmental carrying capacity is an important starting point,
considering that the impact of climate anomalies also threatens dryland agriculture. Temperature is a
crucial factor that plays an essential role in agriculture on dry land agriculture [9] [10].
Physiologically, temperature affects the transpiration rate, water, and nutrients' absorption rate,
photosynthesis, and respiration [9] [10]. Especially for dryland agriculture, maintaining the canopy
cover and soil cover is very important to keep the temperature from increasing, which will result in
loss of soil moisture. On an agricultural scale, the effect of vegetation on temperature increases
deserves to be tested. Land cover that leads to vegetation is one of the environmental carrying capacity
factors that directly affect temperature. The vegetation index is a method for analyzing vegetation's
greenness level in an area [11] [12]. The vegetation index can be used as a parameter for drought
conditions and monitoring vegetation growth. A lack of water availability causes the effect of
decreasing vegetation due to changing seasons and land use. These conditions have an impact on
drought and increased soil surface temperature. In the long term, this increase in temperature will, in
turn, affect agricultural productivity.
Based on NOAA's Oceanic Nino Index (ONI) data, which is one of the El Nino parameters, which
is an indication of a prolonged drought due to climate change. Throughout 2019, at an average of 8
months from 12 months, there has been temperature increasing that has exceeded the optimum limit of
average temperatures [13], so that drought was unavoidable. So, the vegetation index's effect on this
temperature can be seen using years. By choosing 2019 as the benchmark, a time series was made for
the last twenty years with an interval of 5 years. So that in this study, changes in the vegetation index
and temperature in 1999, 2004, 2009, 2014, and 2019 is used. Three types of remote sensing-based
vegetation indices, namely the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), Soil-adjusted
Vegetation Index (SAVI), and Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI). Meanwhile, the type of temperature
parameter used is Land Surface Temperature (LST). This research aims to see how the pattern of
changes in the vegetation index on temperature and its impact on agricultural productivity in
Nangapanda in general. This attempt will provide concrete recommendations on how to deal with the
potential for dryland agriculture, which is also affected by climate change.
2. Method
This research method section discusses the research location, research time, data collection, data
processing (including the differences between the three vegetation indices), and data analysis. The
vegetation index used is NDVI, SAVI, and EVI obtained from processing Landsat 5 TM and Landsat
8 OLI imagery data. The period as a representation of climate change uses data for 1999, 2004, 2009,
2014, and 2019. Time range selection is based on Xu et al. [14], which can analyze climate trends,
namely air temperature, precipitation, and annual runoff over 32 years, 16 years, eight years, and four
years. Therefore, in this study, a period of 20 years was selected divided by five years.
2.1. Research location
2
This research was conducted in the Nangapanda District, Ende Regency, East Nusa Tenggara Province
(Figure 1), with ± 19,031 ha. Meanwhile, Nangapanda is one of the districts in the Ende Regency,
which has high agricultural productivity but still has to deal with climate anomalies every year.
Figure 1. Map of research location.
2.2. Data collection

The vegetation index map and LST are obtained from the processing of Landsat 5 TM and Landsat 8
OLI satellite images obtained from the USGS website (https://earthexplorer.usgs.gov/) for free. Air
temperature data were obtained from climate data from the Meteorological Climatological and
Geophysical Agency of Indonesia, known as Badan Meteorologi Klimatologi dan Geofisika (BMKG),
and Agricultural Counseling Agency of Nangapanda District as known as Badan Penyuluhan
Pertanian (BPP). Agricultural productivity data is obtained from Statistics Indonesia, known as Badan
Pusat Statistik (BPS) and BPP. The data used in the study can be seen in Table 1.
Table 1. Research data collection.

No Data Unit Source
1 NDVI distribution - Landsat 5 TM imagery:
2 SAVI distribution - i) August 29, 1999
3 EVI distribution - ii) October 13, 2004
4 LST distribution °C iii) October 27, 2009
Landsat 8 OLI imagery:
i) October 9, 2014
ii) August 20, 2019
5 Annual average air °C a) Climate data from BMKG (Fransiskus Xaverius Seda
temperature Meteorological Station)
b) Climate data from BPP of Nangapanda District
6 Annual Dry Land ton/ha a) Agricultural data from BPS
farming productivity b) Agricultural data from BPP of Nangapanda District
3
2.3. Data processing

Processing of Landsat 5 TM and Landsat 8 OLI image data to obtain vegetation index data for NDVI,
SAVI, and EVI uses equations 1, 2, and 3 as follows;
(ܰ‫ܴܫ‬−ܴ݁݀)
ܰ‫= ܫܸܦ‬ (1)
(ܰ‫ܴܫ‬+ܴ݁݀)
(ܰ‫ܴܫ‬−ܴ݁݀)
ܵ‫ܴܫܰ(= ܫܸܣ‬+ܴ݁݀+‫( × )ܮ‬1 + ‫)ܮ‬ (2)
(ܰ‫ܴܫ‬−ܴ݁݀)
‫ = ܫܸܧ‬2.5 × (3)
(ܰ‫ܴܫ‬+(‫ܥ‬1×ܴ݁݀)−(‫ܥ‬2×‫)݁ݑ݈ܤ‬+‫))ܮ‬
Where:
NIR = the reflectance value of the near-infrared band in the Landsat imagery
Red = the reflectance value of the red band in the Landsat imagery.
Blue = the reflectance value of the blue band in the Landsat imagery.
L = soil and canopy background adjust coefficient (set to 0.5)
C1 = aerosol scattering correction coefficient 1 (set to 6)
C2 = aerosol scattering correction coefficient 2 (set to 7.5)
The NDVI formula, referred to by Tucker [15], is widely used to estimate vegetation conditions
[16]. SAVI is a vegetation index that uses soil severity as a calibration [17]. Meanwhile, EVI is
developing a vegetation index determination method to observe the limitations of NDVI by optimizing
the better vegetation signal sensitivity in areas with high biomass [18].
Likewise, with image processing to obtain LST distribution data using equations 4, 5, and 6 as
follows;
‫ ܮܣܥܳ × ܮܯ = ߣܮ‬+ ‫ܮܣ‬ (4)
‫ܭ‬2
ܶ‫= ܭ‬ ‫ܭ‬
݈݊ ( 1+1)
(5)
‫ܮ‬,ߣ
ܶ‫ ܭܶ = ܥ‬− 272.15 (6)
Where:
Lλ = spectral radians on the sensor
QCAL= digital number
ML = rescaling constant, obtained from image metadata.
AL = enhancement constant, obtained from image metadata
K1 = calibration constant 1, obtained in image metadata
K2 = calibration constant 2, obtained in image metadata
TK = LST in a unit of Kelvin
TC = LST in a unit of Celcius degree (°C)
2.4. Data analysis

The data analysis used in this research is the spatial analysis and descriptive statistics. The spatial
analysis was carried out by overlapping the LST variables with NDVI, SAVI, and EVI. Meanwhile,
statistical analysis was carried out by testing the relationship between the LST sample values with
NDVI, SAVI, and EVI. Statistical analysis was also used to describe the relationship between LST and
air temperature and agricultural productivity.
4
3. Results and discussion
3.1. The fluctuation of vegetation index

NDVI has a range of vegetation index values compared to SAVI and EVI. In Figure 2, it can be seen
that each year from 1999-2019, NDVI has an average value range of 0.51-0.68. The next highest range
value is the EVI, with an average value of 0.37-0.56. In contrast, the lowest range value is SAVI, with
an average value of 0.27-0.39.
Figure 2. The fluctuation of vegetation index average value in 1999-2019.
Based on Figure 2, the vegetation index on agricultural land in Nangapanda shows various
fluctuations. In 1999-2004, NDVI was declining, while SAVI and EVI are increasing. The three
vegetation indexes increased in 2004-2009 and decreased in 2009-2014. In 2014-2019, NDVI and
SAVI were increasing, while EVI is decreasing.
Different bands and coefficients cause the difference in the fluctuation of the three vegetation
indices. NDVI uses near-infrared and red bands, which positively correlate with biomass [19] [20];
SAVI uses the same band composition as NDVI. Still, there is an additional coefficient L, which
functions as a soil and canopy background adjust coefficient [19] [20]. The difference in bands is most
visible in EVI, where there is the addition of a blue band in the calculation and the coefficients of C1
and C2, which serve to minimize soil reflectance effects and atmospheric influences [19] [20].
Besides, the hilly topographic factors in the hilly of the Nangapanda district also affect the vegetation
index results, where NDVI is the least from topographic effects compared to SAVI and EVI [21]. This
band compilation shows that the vegetation index results shown by NDVI have a different tendency
compared to the indices shown by EVI and SAVI (Figure 2).
3.2. Correlation between LST and vegetation index

Based on the linear regression test results between LST and each vegetation index (Figure 3), it can be
seen that NDVI affects LST the most compared to SAVI and EVI. The three data processing results
show a significance value of 0.000, where this value is smaller than the 0.05 significance level. Thus
the initial hypothesis in the form of no significant relationship between vegetation index and LST is
rejected. This calculation result means that the vegetation index significantly affects LST.
5
Figure 3. The results of the linear regression of vegetation indexes on LST.

(a) NDVI, (b) SAVI, (c) EVI.
NDVI has the highest level of relationship with LST compared to SAVI and EVI. Based on Figure
3a, NDVI with LST has an R-value of 0.569 and a contribution of R2 of 32.4%. The second-highest
relationship is SAVI and LST (Figure 3b), with R of 0.233 and R2 contribution of 5.4%. The lowest
relationship level is between EVI and LST (Figure 3c), with R of 0.160 and R2 contribution of 2.6%.
Modeling of the NDVI regression test results with LST (Figure 3a) has the equation y = -16,356x
+ 37,929, which means that everyone increases in the NDVI index value will reduce the LST by
21.573°C. Furthermore, the SAVI regression with LST (Figure 3b) has the equation y = -9.0058x +
31.017, assuming an increase of 1 SAVI index value will reduce LST by 22.0112°C. Simultaneously,
the regression modeling between EVI and LST (Figure 3c) has the equation y = -3.9864x + 29,883,
where every one increase in the EVI index value will reduce the LST by 25.8966°C. Based on the
three regressions modeling, it is known that the vegetation index has a negative relationship, where the
higher the vegetation index value, the lower the LST.
Figure 4 shows that in the dry land, the study area had the highest LST in 2004 with a temperature
of 30.97°C, while the lowest LST occurred in 2019 with a temperature of 24.14°C. The increase in
LST occurred in 1999-2004 at 4.10° C and 2009-2014 at 0.75°C. Meanwhile, the decline occurred in
2004-2009 at 2.21°C and 2014-2019 at 5.37°C. This temporal pattern of LST fluctuations is inversely
proportional to NDVI fluctuations (Figure 2), which supports the regression modeling results that have
been carried out in Figure 3. Whereas SAVI and EVI had linear fluctuations only in 2009-2014, SAVI
and EVI decreased by 0.02, and LST increased by 0.75°C.
Based on research by Kodimalar et al. [22], EVI has the strongest correlation but only in areas
with low vegetation conditions. The difference with this study results is in the research area, where
Nangapanda has high vegetation conditions. Therefore NDVI has the strongest correlation with LST.
The research results also support this by Bagherzadeh et al. [23], who also found that NDVI has the
most vital index in climate change response, in this case, land surface temperature.
6
Figure 4. Map of vegetation indexes and LST comparison.
7
3.3. Correlation between LST and dryland agriculture productivity

After comparing the effect of vegetation index on LST, an overview of the final relationship with the
yield of dryland agricultural productivity is as follows (Table 2).
Table 2. Relationship between temperature and Dry Land agricultural productivity in Nangapanda.
Dry Land Agriculture Productivity

LST Annual Air tonnes/hectare
(average Temperature
Year value) Dry Maize Cassava Sweet Coconut Cocoa Candle
°C °C Land Potatoes Nut
paddy
no
1999 26.86 27.55 no data no data no data no data no data no data
data
2004 30.97 no data 1.93 1.961 10.551 0 0.98 0.938 1.04
2009 28.76 27.58 1.455 1.755 8.523 4.822 1.075 1 1
2014 29.51 27.90 0.025 0.33 1.75 0.082 1.199 0.988 0.996
2019 24.14 27.72 2 1.9 7 5 1 0.6 1
Sources: Primary data, 2020; [24]; [26]; [27]; [28]; [29]; [30]; [31]
Based on its productivity (Table 2), dryland agricultural commodities tended to decline in the
study area, especially in 2009-2014. Examples are dryland paddy, maize, cassava, cocoa, and
candlenut, which experienced a decrease in productivity of up to 6.7 ton/ha. This condition is inversely
proportional to the LST condition, which is experiencing an increase to 29.51°C. 2014-2019 was a
transitional year with the highest increase in productivity, where most commodities experienced an
increase in productivity. Examples are dryland paddy, maize, cassava, sweet potato, and candlenut,
which have increased productivity up to 5.25 tonnes/hectare. Likewise, LST conditions have
decreased to 24.14°C.
Based on interviews with BPP (Agricultural Counseling Agency) officer of Nangapanda District
and field surveys, there was a weather anomaly where there was a delay in the rainy season in 2014.
This result follows the identification of LST data in 2014 with a high temperature of 29.51°C. The
rainy season delay has caused a decrease in agricultural production in Nangapanda, which indicate in
Table 2 that all commodities experienced a decrease in productivity in 2014 compared to 2009, except
for coconut. This comparison for coconut is possible because coconut is still strong enough to
withstand variations in tropical climatic conditions that tend to change [25].
4. Conclusion
Based on the results of data analysis and all comparisons, it is found that NDVI is a vegetation index
with the highest influence relationship on LST compared to SAVI and EVI. This index result can
happen because the NDVI index can detect vegetation cover areas with difficult topographical
boundaries. The Nangapanda area has a steep slope coverage area, so the NDVI index can be
considered suitable to be applied in this area. The vegetation index has a negative or reverse influence
relationship, where the higher the vegetation index value causes the LST to decrease. In general, LST
causes a decrease in most dry land agricultural commodities in the Nangapanda District.
8
For this reason, further research is needed on how far LST affects the productivity of dry land for each
commodity so that more specific data can be obtained. This further analysis is necessary because of
the response of each commodity related to productivity to climatic anomalies is specifically. So that in
the future, the commodities that can be chosen for the development of dryland agriculture and
plantations are commodities that have a high tolerance to climate change.
Acknowledgements
This publication was supported by DRPM (Directorate of Research and Community Service)
Universitas Indonesia through PUTI Research Grant with contract number NKB-
1271/UN2.RST/HKP.05.00/2020. We would like to extend our gratitude to the people of Nangapanda
who have welcomed and helped us in providing the research data. And also, our gratitude to Sanca
Pamungkas for helping us to collect data in Nangapanda. And also our gratitude to the Center for
Human Resources and Environmental Research (PPSML), School of Environmental Sciences,
Universitas Indonesia for the opportunity provided by facilitating us to conduct an initial survey
through the use of cooperation funds with contract numbers 358G/UN2.F4.D2.2/LT-
KEP.SPK/X/2019. The map for this paper can also be done with the help from the geospatial
laboratory (Laboratorium Geospasial) at the School of Environmental Sciences, through using the
Map Info Pro license software and ArcGIS ESRI license.
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10

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PAPER • OPEN ACCESS

Effects of climate change on dryland agriculture vegetation index in

View the article online for updates and enhancements.

This content was downloaded from IP address 114.124.138.188 on 12/04/2021 at 15:17

Effects of climate change on dryland agriculture vegetation

Gilang Buditama1, Halvina G Saiya1*, Nadya P Putri1

2.1. Research location

Figure 1. Map of research location.

2.2. Data collection

Table 1. Research data collection.

2.3. Data processing

ܶ‫ ܭܶ = ܥ‬− 272.15 (6)

2.4. Data analysis

3. Results and discussion

3.1. The fluctuation of vegetation index

Figure 2. The fluctuation of vegetation index average value in 1999-2019.

3.2. Correlation between LST and vegetation index

Figure 3. The results of the linear regression of vegetation indexes on LST.

Figure 4. Map of vegetation indexes and LST comparison.

3.3. Correlation between LST and dryland agriculture productivity

Dry Land Agriculture Productivity

2004 30.97 no data 1.93 1.961 10.551 0 0.98 0.938 1.04

2009 28.76 27.58 1.455 1.755 8.523 4.822 1.075 1 1

2019 24.14 27.72 2 1.9 7 5 1 0.6 1

guizhou province, southern china Chinese Geographical Science 27 (1) 25-38

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