Finding Aadt Thresholds For Upgrading Low Volume Roads in Sri Lanka (Using Hdm-4 Model)

FINDING AADT THRESHOLDS FOR UPGRADING
LOW VOLUME ROADS IN SRI LANKA

(USING HDM-4 MODEL)
Yathuru Pattalage Saman Ravindranath Piyasena
(08/8872H)
Degree of Master of Engineering
Department of Civil Engineering
University of Moratuwa
Sri Lanka
February 2012
FINDING AADT THRESHOLDS FOR UPGRADING
LOW VOLUME ROADS IN SRI LANKA
(USING HDM-4 MODEL)
Yathuru Pattalage Saman Ravindranath Piyasena
(08/8872H)
Dissertation submitted in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree Master
of Engineering
Department of Civil Engineering
University of Moratuwa
Sri Lanka
February 2012
DECLARATION
I declare that this is my own work and this dissertation does not incorporate without
acknowledgement any material previously submitted for a Degree or Diploma in any
other University or institute of higher learning and to the best of my knowledge and
belief it does not contain any material previously published or written by another
person except where the acknowledgement is made in the text.
Also, I hereby grant to University of Moratuwa the non-exclusive right to reproduce

and distribute my dissertation, in whole or in part in print, electronic or other
medium. I retain the right to use this content in whole or part in future works (such as
articles or books).
Signature: Date:
The above candidate has carried out research for the Masters Dissertation under my
supervision.
Signature of the supervisor: Date
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Abstract
The Highway Development and Management Tool (HDM-4) is a powerful system for the
analysis of road management and investment alternatives and it is used to prepare road
investment programmes and to analyse road network strategies.
In this study, the HDM-4 tool is used to find the AADT thresholds based on traffic, subgrade
and climate for upgrading low volume roads to maximize economic benefits in Sri Lanka.
Several road sections were defined based on different possible traffic, subgrade and climatic
conditions for Gravel, Penetration Macadam (PM), Surface Dressed (SD), Portland Cement
Concrete (PCC) and Asphaltic Concrete (AC) pavement types. Altogether more than 120
sections were modelled in HDM-4. Level-1 calibration was done in HDM-4 to harmonize
with the Sri Lankan condition. Using HDM-4 strategy analysis, different rehabilitation and
improvement alternatives were analysed. Maintaining existing pavement considered as the
base case. Analysis was done for a 20-year period and optimized for maximum NPV.
The outcomes of the analysis EIRR was compared in tabular and graphical forms in order to
identify the AADT thresholds for traffic, subgrade and climate for upgrading each pavement
type. This shows that traffic volume and growth rate are significantly affected and whereas
the effect of climate and of subgrade condition are negligible.
Upgrading threshold of low volume road can be decided based on traffic volume in AADT
with a fair assessment of the number of heavy vehicles, traffic growth rate and climate
condition. According to the study, AADT ranges were defined to get maximum economic
benefit for different pavement types of low volume roads in Sri Lanka.
Furthermore it can be concluded that low volume roads (AADT less than 1000) in Sri Lanka
can use Gravel, PM or SD pavement type with proper maintenance and it is more economical
than upgrading to AC or PCC.
Keywords: HDM-4, Low volume roads, Pavement upgrading, Road maintenance
ii
ACKNOWLEDGEMENT
I would like to express my sincere gratitude to Dr. W. K. Mampearachchi, for his

excellent guidance and assistance extended throughout the research programme. Dr.
Mampearachchi has been extremely supportive as a supervisor and has given me
encouragement and inspiration during the research programme. His devotion in the
subject of Pavement Management is also acknowledged.
My gratitude is extended to Mr. R.M. Amarasekara, for his valuable insights and
suggestions received during progress reviews and in some specific areas.
My special thanks to the University of Moratuwa for the services provided during the
research programme, and also many thanks to the Road Development Authority for
granting me leave for following this course.
The assistance received from staff of Planning Division, Road Development

Authority, during the HDM analysis is also acknowledged.
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TABLE OF CONTENTS
DECLARATION ............................................................................................................I
ABSTRACT .................................................................................................................. II
ACKNOWLEDGEMENT ........................................................................................... III
TABLE OF CONTENTS .............................................................................................IV
LIST OF FIGURES ................................................................................................... VII
LIST OF TABLES .................................................................................................... VIII
ABBREVIATIONS ................................................................................................... XII
CHAPTER 1: INTRODUCTION .................................................................................. 1
1.1. BACKGROUND ..................................................................................................... 1

1.2. PROBLEM STATEMENT ........................................................................................ 2
1.3. RESEARCH APPROACH, SCOPE AND LIMITATIONS ............................................... 2
1.4. ORGANIZATION OF REPORT ................................................................................. 3
CHAPTER 2: LITERATURE REVIEW ....................................................................... 4
2.1. CURRENT PRACTICE IN UPGRADING LOW VOLUME ROADS ................................ 4

2.2. THE HDM-4 OVERVIEW ..................................................................................... 4
2.3. HDM-4 INPUT DATA PREPARATION AND CONFIGURATION ................................ 5
2.3.1.ROAD NETWORK FILE ................................................................................. 6
2.3.2.VEHICLE FLEET .......................................................................................... 7
2.3.3.ROAD WORKS ............................................................................................. 7
2.3.4.TRAFFIC COMPOSITION AND GROWTH RATE ............................................... 7
2.3.5.OTHER CONFIGURATION ............................................................................. 7
2.4. TRAFFIC ON LOW VOLUME ROADS ..................................................................... 7
2.4.1.ANNUAL AVERAGE DAILY TRAFFIC (AADT) ............................................ 9
2.5. FLEXIBLE PAVEMENT DESIGN ............................................................................. 9
2.5.1.PAVEMENT LAYERS ................................................................................. 10
2.5.2.TRAFFIC LOADING ................................................................................... 11
2.5.3.DETERMINING THE SUB-GRADE STRENGTH .............................................. 13
2.5.4.DETERMINATION OF LAYER THICKNESSES AND MATERIAL ..................... 13
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2.6. RIGID PAVEMENT DESIGN ................................................................................. 13
2.6.1.AASHTO RIGID PAVEMENT DESIGN ........................................................ 14
2.7. ROAD USER COST ............................................................................................. 16
2.7.1.VEHICLE OPERATING COST ...................................................................... 17
2.7.2.VALUE OF TRAVEL TIME ........................................................................... 17
2.8. ROAD MAINTENANCE ....................................................................................... 18
2.8.1.MAINTENANCE STANDARD ....................................................................... 20
2.8.2.COST OF MAINTENANCE ........................................................................... 20
2.9. ECONOMIC EVALUATION .................................................................................. 20
2.9.1.BENEFITS AND COST ................................................................................. 21
2.9.2.FINANCIAL AND ECONOMIC VALUES......................................................... 21
2.9.3.OPPORTUNITY COST ................................................................................. 21
2.9.4.DISCOUNT RATE ....................................................................................... 21
2.9.5.NET PRESENT VALUE (NPV) .................................................................... 22
2.9.6.ECONOMIC INTERNAL RATE OF RETURN (EIRR) ....................................... 22
CHAPTER 3: METHODOLOGY ............................................................................... 23
3.1. GENERAL .......................................................................................................... 23

3.2. SELECTION OF DIFFERENT ROAD SECTIONS ...................................................... 24
3.3. UPGRADING OPTIONS ........................................................................................ 25
3.4. TRAFFIC DATA .................................................................................................. 26
3.4.1.VEHICLE FLEET ........................................................................................ 26
3.4.2.TRAFFIC COMPOSITION AND ESA ............................................................. 27
3.4.3.TRAFFIC GROWTH RATE ........................................................................... 27
3.5. HDM-4 MODEL PREPARATION ......................................................................... 27
3.5.1.ROAD NETWORK DEFINITION .................................................................... 28
3.5.2.VEHICLE FLEET DATA ............................................................................... 28
3.5.3.MAINTENANCE/IMPROVEMENT STANDARDS AND WORK EFFECT .............. 29
3.5.4.TRAFFIC COMPOSITION AND GROWTH ...................................................... 30
3.5.5.OTHER CONFIGURATIONS ......................................................................... 30
CHAPTER 4: ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION OF RESULT .................................. 32
4.1. HDM-4 STRATEGY ANALYSIS .......................................................................... 32

4.2. HDM-4 OUTPUT ............................................................................................... 32
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4.3. ECONOMIC ANALYSIS SUMMARY ...................................................................... 32
4.3.1.UPGRADING GRAVEL ROADS .................................................................... 33
4.3.2.UPGRADING PENETRATION MACADAM ROADS .......................................... 34
4.3.3.UPGRADING SURFACE DRESSING ROADS ................................................... 37
CHAPTER 5: CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS ............................... 39
5.1. INTRODUCTION.................................................................................................. 39
5.2. UPGRADING GRAVEL ROADS ............................................................................ 39
5.3. UPGRADING PENETRATION MACADAM ROADS ................................................. 39
5.4. UPGRADING SURFACE DRESSING ROADS .......................................................... 40
5.5. CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATION............................................................ 41
REFERENCES ............................................................................................................ 42
APPENDIX A: VEHICLE FLEET DATA.................................................................. 44
APPENDIX B: ROAD MAINTENANCE AND UPGRADING COSTS .................. 45
APPENDIX C: EIRR FOR UPGRADING ROADS .................................................. 46
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LIST OF FIGURES
Figure 2.1 HDM-4 project lifecycle analysis ................................................................. 5

Figure 3.1 Gravel road section ..................................................................................... 24
Figure 3.2 Penetration Macadam road section ............................................................. 24
Figure 3.3 Surface Dressing road section .................................................................... 24
Figure 3.4 Portland Cement Concrete road section ..................................................... 24
Figure 3.5 Asphalt Concrete road section .................................................................... 24
Figure 3.6 Pavement upgrading options ...................................................................... 25
Figure 4.1 EIRR Vs AADT for Upgrading Gr to PM and PCC at GR 2% and HV 7%
in Dry Climate...................................................................................................... 33
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LIST OF TABLES
Table 2.1 Vehicle composition as a percentage of the AADT (Gayani, 2007) ............. 8
Table 2.2 ESA variation of each vehicle categories (Gayani, 2007) ............................. 9
Table 2.3 Traffic classes defined in Overseas Road Note -31 ..................................... 12
Table 2.4 Subgrade strength classes defined in Overseas Road Note -31 ................... 13
Table 3.1 Road section details (RDA, 2008) ............................................................... 25
Table 3.2 Vehicle fleet used in HDM analysis (RDA, 2008) ...................................... 26
Table 3.3 Vehicle compositions used in HDM analysis (Gayani, 2007) ..................... 27
Table 3.4 Road network file definitions ...................................................................... 28
Table 3.5 Pavement types’ data ................................................................................... 28
Table 3.6 Work standards (RDA, 2006) ...................................................................... 29
Table 3.7 Traffic flow pattern ...................................................................................... 30
Table 4.1 Threshold AADT values for upgrading Gr roads in dry climate ................. 34
Table 4.2 Threshold AADT values for upgrading Gr roads in wet climate ................ 34
Table 4.4 Threshold AADT values for upgrading PM roads in dry climate with
subgrade CBR 5% ................................................................................................ 34
subgrade CBR 12% .............................................................................................. 35
subgrade CBR 20% .............................................................................................. 35
Table 4.7 Threshold AADT values for upgrading PM roads in wet climate with
subgrade CBR 5% ................................................................................................ 35
subgrade CBR 12% .............................................................................................. 36
subgrade CBR 20% .............................................................................................. 36
Table 4.10 Threshold AADT values for upgrading SD roads in dry climate with
subgrade CBR 5% ................................................................................................ 37
subgrade CBR 12% .............................................................................................. 37
subgrade CBR 20% .............................................................................................. 37
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Table 4.13 Threshold AADT values for upgrading SD roads in wet climate with
subgrade CBR 5% ................................................................................................ 38
subgrade CBR 12% .............................................................................................. 38
subgrade CBR 20% .............................................................................................. 38
Table 5.1 Threshold AADT values for upgrading Gr roads ........................................ 39
Table 5.2 Threshold AADT values for upgrading PM roads in dry climate ............... 40
Table 5.3 Threshold AADT values for upgrading PM roads in wet climate ............... 40
Table 5.4 Threshold AADT values for upgrading SD roads in dry climate ................ 40
Table 5.5 Threshold AADT values for upgrading SD roads in wet climate................ 40
Table C.1 EIRR values for upgrading Gr roads in dry climate at low HV% .............. 46
Table C.2 EIRR values for upgrading Gr roads in dry climate at medium HV% ....... 46
Table C.3 EIRR values for upgrading Gr roads in dry climate at high HV% ............. 46
Table C.4 EIRR values for upgrading Gr roads in wet climate at low HV% .............. 47
Table C.5 EIRR values for upgrading Gr roads in wet climate at medium HV% ....... 47
Table C.6 EIRR values for upgrading Gr roads in wet climate at high HV% ............. 47
Table C.7 EIRR values for upgrading PM roads in dry climate and low HV% at 2%
growth rate ........................................................................................................... 48
growth rate ........................................................................................................... 48
growth rate ........................................................................................................... 48
Table C.10 EIRR values for upgrading PM roads in dry climate and medium HV% at
2% growth rate ..................................................................................................... 49
4% growth rate ..................................................................................................... 49
6% growth rate ..................................................................................................... 49
Table C.13 EIRR values for upgrading PM roads in dry climate and high HV% at 2%
growth rate ........................................................................................................... 50
growth rate ........................................................................................................... 50
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growth rate ........................................................................................................... 50
Table C.16 EIRR values for upgrading PM roads in wet climate and low HV% at 2%
growth rate ........................................................................................................... 51
growth rate ........................................................................................................... 51
growth rate ........................................................................................................... 51
Table C.19 EIRR values for upgrading PM roads in wet climate and medium HV% at
2% growth rate ..................................................................................................... 52
4% growth rate ..................................................................................................... 52
6% growth rate ..................................................................................................... 52
Table C.22 EIRR values for upgrading PM roads in wet climate and high HV% at 2%
growth rate ........................................................................................................... 53
growth rate ........................................................................................................... 53
growth rate ........................................................................................................... 53
Table C.25 EIRR values for upgrading SD roads in dry climate and low HV% at 2%
growth rate ........................................................................................................... 54
growth rate ........................................................................................................... 54
growth rate ........................................................................................................... 54
Table C.28 EIRR values for upgrading SD roads in dry climate and medium HV% at
2% growth rate ..................................................................................................... 55
4% growth rate ..................................................................................................... 55
6% growth rate ..................................................................................................... 55
x
Table C.31 EIRR values for upgrading SD roads in dry climate and high HV% at 2%
growth rate ........................................................................................................... 56
growth rate ........................................................................................................... 56
growth rate ........................................................................................................... 56
Table C.34 EIRR values for upgrading SD roads in wet climate and low HV% at 2%
growth rate ........................................................................................................... 57
growth rate ........................................................................................................... 57
growth rate ........................................................................................................... 57
Table C.37 EIRR values for upgrading SD roads in wet climate and medium HV% at
2% growth rate ..................................................................................................... 58
4% growth rate ..................................................................................................... 58
6% growth rate ..................................................................................................... 58
Table C.40 EIRR values for upgrading SD roads in wet climate and high HV% at 2%
growth rate ........................................................................................................... 59
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ABBREVIATIONS
Abbreviation Description
AADT Annual average daily traffic

AASHTO American Association of State Highway and Transportation
Officials
AC Asphalt concrete
CBR California bearing ratio
EIRR Economical internal rate of return
ESA Equivalent standard axle
GC Well graded gravel-sands with small clay content
GF Gravel-sands mixture with excess of fines
Gr Gravel
GR Growth rate
HDM-4 Highway development and management
HV Heavy vehicle
IRI International roughness index
NPV Net present value
PCC Portland cement concrete
PM Penetration macadam
RDA Road development authority
SD Surface dressing
SF Sands with excess fines
SN Structural number
VOC Vehicle operating cost
vpd Vehicles per day
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CHAPTER 1: INTRODUCTION
1.1. Background
In Sri Lanka, upgrading of low-volume roads has emerged as a great challenge,
requiring proper basis and a transparent and economically viable system by the
relevant Authorities. Low volume roads generally provide access and links between
the principal highway system and rural communities. These roads contain relatively
low volumes of traffic with few heavy vehicles.
In this study terminology, “low volume roads” refers to the road sections which have
traffic volume of less than 1000 vehicles per day (VPD).
Low volume roads’ maintenance and rehabilitation strategies need serious

consideration due to the large amount of roads that needs attention. Road users expect
a comfortable high speed ride regardless of the traffic volume. Road agencies wish for
less maintenance and low cost rehabilitations. However, enough funding is not
available to upgrade the entire provincial road system to higher standards.
This study is to find AADT thresholds for upgrading low volume roads based on
traffic volume and heavy vehicle percentage, subgrade support and climate condition.
The Highway Development and Management model (HDM-4) is used as a tool to find
the thresholds with different combinations of above factors to maximize the economic
benefit.
The scope of HDM-4 is to provide a powerful system for the analysis of road
management and investment alternatives.
This system incorporates performance models which contain two primary components
that determine the physical quantities, costs and benefits predicted for the analysis,
namely:
1. Road User Effects (RUE) - comprised of vehicle operating costs (VOC),
travel time, safety and emissions, and
1
2. Road Deterioration and Works Effects (RDWE) - comprised of the
deterioration of the pavement and the impact of maintenance activities on
pavement condition and the future rate of pavement deterioration.
The purpose of this research is to determine the traffic volume limits which will give
the maximum economic benefit for different available pavement types with respect to
heavy vehicle percentage, subgrade condition and climate condition in Sri Lanka.
These limits and conditions can then be used as thresholds for upgrading minor roads.
1.2. Problem Statement

 In Sri Lanka there is no proper guideline available in making decisions to
upgrade low volume roads and it is not reasonable to do a feasibility study for
each decision.
 Therefore current practice in upgrading minor roads will not always give the
expected return on investment.
 It is also not practical to carry out several tests and studies on a road-by-road
basis to take a decision on upgrading a particular road.
1.3. Research Approach, Scope and Limitations

Representative sections of 1km length in different pavement types available in Sri
Lanka were defined. These sections were analysed with possible upgrading options
under selected attributes. Different levels of Traffic volume and heavy vehicle
percentages, subgrade support strengths and climate zones were the considered
conditions.
Each pavement upgrading options with different conditions were modelled in HDM-
4. All alternatives were analysed using HDM-4 strategy analysis with different growth
rates considering general maintenance as the base case, to maximize economic
internal rate of return (EIRR). For evaluating different options, EIRR values for
upgrading a particular pavement were analysed to find the traffic volume at which
EIRR is equal to the discount rate.
2
In this study HDM-4 was calibrated to level-1 and pavement deterioration model
behaviour was assumed as similar to actual pavement. Construction defects and
material quality changes were not considered in this study. Social benefits were also
not considered in this study.
1.4. Organization of Report

This report consists of five chapters and three appendices.
Chapter 1 - Introduction: describes the nature of the problem to be addressed, research
objectives and scope of work adopted.
Chapter 2 - Literature Review: contains current practice in upgrading low volume
roads, an overview of HDM-4 and different input data prepared for it.
Chapter 3 - Methodology of Study: describes information on the tools and methods
used during this study.
Chapter 4 - Analysis and Discussion of Results: includes description of analysis used
and different EIRR for considered alternatives under different conditions.
Chapter 5 - Conclusions and Recommendations.
3
CHAPTER 2: LITERATURE REVIEW
2.1. Current Practice in Upgrading Low Volume Roads

Most of the roads owned by local authorities such as Municipal Councils, Urban
Councils and so on are low volume roads. There is no proper guideline or standards
for these authorities to follow in terms of what factors and threshold values should be
consider in deciding whether to upgrade a road, and what type of upgrading should be
used.
The author interviewed several municipal council engineers from different areas to
understand the methodologies and criteria adapted by them for upgrading their roads.
They do not have a proper system to identify roads for rehabilitation and arbitrarily
select roads on request from the general public or local politicians.
Local road authorities pay very limited attention to road maintenance, and typically
start doing maintenance only once a road is heavily damaged. This is a bad practice
and will incur a huge cost unnecessarily. This cost can be reduced enormously by
practising proper road maintenance implementation standards.
In Sri Lanka, most of the low volume roads are gravel and penetration macadam, and
recently the government has started to upgrade these roads to portland cement
concrete roads and asphalt concrete roads. The generally accepted road pavement
upgrading sequence however is gravel to penetration macadam, penetration macadam
to surface dressing and surface dressing to either asphalt concrete or cement concrete
with respect to cost of construction and maintenance.
2.2. The HDM-4 Overview

The Highway Design and Maintenance Standard Model (HDM-III), developed by the
World Bank, has been used for over two decades to combine technical and economic
appraisals of road projects, to prepare road investment programmes and to analyse
road network strategies. The system was initially developed in order to render more
effective infrastructure investments in developing countries. However, during more
recent years many industrialised countries have begun to make use of the model. This
4
led to a need for additional capabilities to be included, such as models for traffic
congestion, cold climate effects, road safety and environmental effects.
The International Study of Highway Development and Management (ISOHDM) was

therefore carried out to extend the scope of the HDM-III model and this produced the
Highway Development and Management Tool (HDM-4).
Strategy analysis:
Strategic planning of medium to long term road network expenditures. Deals with
entire networks or sub-networks managed by one road organisation. Applies the
concept of road network matrix comprising categories of the road network defined
according to the key attributes that most influence pavement performance and road
user costs. The categories can typically be traffic volume or loading, pavement types,
pavement condition, environment or climatic zone and functional classification.
The basic structure of HDM-4 can be described as below.
Figure 2.1 HDM-4 project lifecycle analysis
2.3. HDM-4 Input Data Preparation and Configuration

The HDM-4 application is able to work with a wide range of data types and quality
levels. For example, pavement condition data collected by visual inspection according
to condition classes (for example: Very Good, Good, Fair, Poor etc.) can be converted
to the HDM-4 model requirements prior to running any of the applications. Similarly,
5
HDM-4 can work with very detailed measurements of pavement condition if the data
is available.
Since HDM-4 will be used in a wide range of environments, HDM Configuration

provides the facility to customise system operation to reflect the norms that are
specific to the environment under study. Default data and calibration coefficients can
be defined in a flexible manner to minimise the amount of data that must be changed
for each application of HDM-4. Default values are supplied with HDM-4, but these
are all user-definable and facilities are also provided to modify this data.
HDM-4 input data and configuration can be listed as follows:

 Road network file
 Vehicle fleet
 Maintenance/Improvement standards and Work effect
 Traffic composition and growth
 Other configurations
◦ Traffic flow
◦ Speed flow
◦ Climate
2.3.1. Road network file

Road Networks provides the basic facilities for storing characteristics of one or more
road sections. It allows users to define different networks and sub-networks, and to
define road sections, which is the fundamental unit of analysis. The data entities
supported within the road network are:
Sections: Lengths of road over which physical characteristics are reasonably constant.
Links: Comprise one or more sections over which traffic is reasonably constant.
Nodes: Intersections which connect links or other points at which there is a

significant change in traffic, carriageway characteristics, or administrative boundaries.
6
All network data is entered using the Road Network File format and facilities are also
available for editing, deleting and maintaining this data.
2.3.2. Vehicle fleet

Vehicle Fleets provide facilities for the storage and retrieval of vehicle characteristics
required for calculating vehicle speeds, operating costs, travel time costs and other
vehicle effects. Motorcycles and non-motorised vehicles are also included in this.
Multiple vehicle fleet data sets can be set up for use in different analyses, with a wide
range of default data provided.
2.3.3. Road works

Road Works Standards refer to the targets or levels of conditions and response that a
road management organisation aims to achieve. Road organisations normally set up
different standards that can be applied in practical situations in order to meet specific
objectives which are related to functional characteristics of the road network system.
The Road Works folder provides facilities, within a flexible framework, to define a
list of maintenance and improvement standards that are followed by road
organisations in their network management and development activities.
2.3.4. Traffic composition and growth rate

Different vehicle categories have different compositions in a particular road section,
and different vehicle categories also have different growth rates. HDM-4 required
composition and growth rate of each vehicle category included in vehicle fleet.
2.3.5. Other configuration

Traffic flow pattern, speed flow type and climate zone configurations are other
important configurations required for HDM-4. Traffic flow pattern and speed flow
account for the different levels of traffic at different hours and the capacity of the
road. Climate zones can be defined to suit the climate of the considered region.
2.4. Traffic on Low Volume Roads

Traffic is considered as the key parameter in road deterioration. Therefore it is
essential to know its composition together with axle load distribution. Heavy vehicle
7
wheel load, tire pressure, frequency and duration together with environmental factors
are all important to the performance of the pavement. However, the most significant
parameter is the axle load since the damage to a road structure depends greatly on the
magnitude of axle loads. The damage to a pavement will result in pavement failure
and increases very rapidly with increasing axle loads.
Accurate traffic estimation is essential for road pavement design and maintenance.
The following vehicle composition and axle load data for low volume roads was
extracted from a research publication (Gayani, 2007).
Table 2.1 Vehicle composition as a percentage of the AADT (Gayani, 2007)
8
Table 2.2 ESA variation of each vehicle categories (Gayani, 2007)
2.4.1. Annual Average Daily Traffic (AADT)

The Annual Average Daily Traffic (AADT) is defined as the total volume of vehicle
traffic on a highway or road for a year divided by 365 days. One of the most
important uses of AADT is for determining funding for the maintenance and
improvement of Highways.
In this study, traffic volume is referred in terms of AADT and it is not a simple
measurement of a road section. Instead of AADT, Average Daily Traffic (ADT) can
also be used as a quick measurement of a road section with 0.9 ~ 1.1 tolerances (Road
Development Authority, 2000).
2.5. Flexible Pavement Design

The road pavement is the actual surface on which the vehicles will travel. Its purpose
is twofold, to provide friction for the vehicles and to transfer normal stresses to the
underlying soils.
Flexible pavements are so named because the total pavement structure deflects, or
flexes, under loading. A flexible pavement structure is typically composed of several
layers of materials. Each layer receives loads from the above layer, spreads them out,
and passes on these loads to the next layer below. Thus the stresses will be reduced,
such that they are maximum at the top layer and minimum on the top of subgrade. In
9
order to take maximum advantage of this property, layers are usually arranged in the
order of descending load bearing capacity with the highest load bearing capacity
material (and most expensive) on the top, and the lowest load bearing capacity
material (and least expensive) on the bottom.
The basic steps to determining the pavement structure are as follows:

1. Estimating the traffic, and its axle-load distribution, that the road will carry
during its design life.
2. Assessing the strength of the sub-grade beneath the completed pavement.
3. After consideration of (1) and (2), selecting the correct combination of
materials and layer thicknesses that will produce an economical pavement
with minimum maintenance.
2.5.1. Pavement Layers

Surfacing
This is the uppermost layer of the pavement and will normally consist of a bituminous
surface dressing or a layer of asphalt concrete. Where asphalt concrete are laid in two
layers, these are known as the wearing course and the base course (or binder course).
Road base
This is the main load-spreading layer of the pavement. It will normally consist of
crushed stone or gravel, or of gravelly soils, decomposed rock, sands and sand-clays
stabilized with cement, lime or bitumen.
Sub-base
This is the secondary load-spreading layer underlying the road base. It will normally
consist of a material of lower quality than that used in the road base such as
unprocessed natural gravel, gravel-sand, or gravel-sand-clay.
This layer also serves as a separating layer preventing contamination of the road base
by the subgrade material. Under wet conditions it has an important role to play in
protecting the subgrade from damage by construction traffic.
10
Capping layer (selected or improved subgrade)
Where very weak soils are encountered, a capping layer is sometimes necessary. This
may consist of better quality subgrade material imported from elsewhere or existing
subgrade material improved by mechanical or chemical stabilization.
Subgrade
This is the upper layer of the natural soil which maybe undisturbed local material or
may be soil excavated elsewhere and placed as fill. In either case it is compacted
during construction to give added strength.
2.5.2. Traffic Loading

For pavement design purposes, it is necessary to consider not only the total number of
vehicles that will use the road, but also the wheel loads (or axle loads) of these
vehicles. Cars and similar sized vehicles can be ignored and only the total number and
the axle loading of the heavy vehicles that will use the road during its design life
needs to be considered.
The design procedure or both highways and low volume roads are all based on
cumulative expected 18-kip equivalent single axle loads (ESAL) during the analysis
period (W18). An axle load survey is usually carried out to measure the axle loads on
heavy vehicles. The number of different types of heavy vehicles is counted and the
annual traffic volume is estimated from the daily average.
If axle load surveys cannot be carried out, approximate estimates can be made by
assigning equivalent standard axle values (ESA) for different types of vehicles
published by the Road Development Authority (RDA).
Determination of Cumulative Equivalent Standard Axles

The mean equivalence factor for each type of class of vehicle travelling in each
direction must be determined. Vehicle classes are usually defined by the number and
types of axles.
11
From knowledge of the volumes of different types of heavy vehicles using the road,
their loads and the number of axles the loads are converted to equivalent number of
standard axles. A standard axle is defined to be 80kN. Experiments on the
deterioration of road pavements have shown that the damaging power of vehicle loads
increases very rapidly as the loads increase. The Equivalence Factor is related to Axle
loads by the expression:
Axle Load (kg) 4.5

Equivalence Factor =
8160
The products of the cumulative one-directional traffic flow for each class of vehicles
over the design life of the road and the mean equivalence factor for that class should
then be calculated and added together to give the cumulative equivalent standard axle
loading for each direction. The higher of the two directional values should then be
used for the design.
The cumulative number of standard axle loads for the design period can be
determined by the expression:
m
A = 365 ∑ Pi [(1+ ri )n – 1] / ri
i =1
where A = the cumulative number of standard axles for the design period
Pi = average number of standard axles per day for the first year of opening the
road for traffic after construction for vehicle type i
ri = rate of growth of traffic for vehicle type i
m = number of the type of vehicle
n = design period in years
Table 2.3 Traffic classes defined in Overseas Road Note -31
12
Traffic Forecasting
Even with a developed economy and stable economic conditions, traffic forecasting is
an uncertain process. In order to forecast traffic growth, there should be a traffic
forecasting model for each particular section. But in Sri Lanka, low volume road
management authorities do not have such information and instead use a 2% flat
growth rate together with their experience (Municipal Council Engineer, Personal
communication, 2010).
2.5.3. Determining the Sub-grade Strength

The strength of road subgrades is commonly assessed in terms of the California
Bearing Ratio (CBR) and this is dependent on the type of soil, its density, and its
moisture content.
Table 2.4 Subgrade strength classes defined in Overseas Road Note -31
2.5.4. Determination of Layer Thicknesses and Material

The design sub-grade strength class (see Table 2.4) together with the traffic class
obtained (see Table 2.5) are used to determine the pavement layer thickness and
materials as per the catalogues provided in the Overseas Road Note -31.
2.6. Rigid Pavement Design

Portland Cement Concrete (PCC) pavements are commonly referred to as rigid
pavements. This classification is based on rigid pavement behavior. The behavior of a
pavement is defined as the immediate response of a pavement to a load. Rigid
pavements respond to a wheel load as a very stiff material (concrete) over much softer
materials (subbase and subgrade). The rigid pavement develops significant bending
13
moments and uses these bending moments to act as a beam to spread the wheel load
over a large area of the subbase and subgrade.
There are two types of concrete pavements that are commonly used:
Continuously Reinforced Concrete Pavement (CRCP).

CRCP contains both longitudinal and transverse steel. CRCP does not contain
transverse joints except at construction joints. The function of the longitudinal steel is
not to strengthen the pavement, but to force the pavement to crack within certain
desirable crack spacing (usually from three to eight feet) and to keep those cracks
tightly closed. The function of the transverse steel is to keep longitudinal joints and
cracks closed. If the steel serves its proper function and keeps cracks from widening,
aggregate interlock is preserved and concrete stresses at the cracks due to traffic
loading are reduced.
Jointed Plain (Non-Reinforced) Concrete Pavement.

Jointed plain concrete pavement does not have reinforcing steel and has transverse
joints spaced at regular intervals. The transverse joints are used to control temperature
induced stresses in the concrete. Longitudinal joints are used to facilitate construction
and control cracking. Pavements of this type will have smooth dowels at the joints for
load transfer.
2.6.1. AASHTO rigid pavement design

The following equation relate to the 1993 AASHTO model is used to calculate
pavement thickness.
14
Design traffic 18-kip ESAL (W18)
The accumulated 18-Kip Equivalent Single Axle Loads 18-Kip is the traffic load
information used for pavement depth determination. The accumulation of the damage
caused by mixed truck traffic during the design period is referred to as the W18. Refer
section 2.5.2 for more details.
Modulus of subgrade reaction (k)

The modulus of subgrade reaction (k) represents the hypothetical elastic spring
support provided by the subgrade to the slab.
Reliability (R)
The reliability value represents a "safety factor,” with higher reliabilities representing
pavement structures with less chance of failure. As a result, higher reliabilities
produce thicker concrete pavements in the AASHTO procedure.
It is assumed that higher reliability levels would produce facilities that require less
maintenance over their design lives, thus causing fewer traffic delays. Therefore,
higher reliabilities are provided in critical high traffic areas where traffic delays need
to be minimized.
Standard normal deviate (ZR)

The Standard Normal Deviate (ZR) is the corresponding Reliability (%R) value, which
has been converted into logarithmic form for calculation purposes.
Standard deviation (SO)

A standard deviation (SO) of 0.35 is used in the design calculations to represent the
variability in construction and loading prediction for rigid pavements.
Modulus of elasticity (EC)

The modulus of elasticity (EC) is the Young’s modulus or stress to strain ratio or
stiffness of the concrete slab.
15
Concrete modulus of rupture (S'c)
The concrete modulus of rupture (S'c) is the 28-day flexural strength based on third
point loading. This is the extreme fiber stress under the breaking load in a beam-
breaking test.
Drainage factor (CD)

The drainage factor (CD) is the ability of the pavement subsurface to drain over a
period ranging from 1 hour to 72 hours. The standard value to use in design for
department projects is 1.0.
Joint transfer factor (J)

The joint transfer factor (J) is the ability of the concrete joint to transfer the load
across the joint.
Present serviceability index (PSI)

The Present Serviceability Index (PSI) is the ability of a roadway to serve the traffic
which uses the facility. A rating of 0 to 5 is used with 5 being the best and 0 being the
worst. As road smoothness decreases due to deterioration, the PSI decreases. The
Initial Serviceability (PI) is the condition of a newly constructed roadway. A value of
4.2 is generally assumed. The Terminal Serviceability (PT) is the condition of a road
that reaches a point where some type of rehabilitation or reconstruction is warranted.
A value of 2.5 is generally assumed. The Change In Serviceability, ΔPSI, is the
difference between an Initial Serviceability (PI) and a Terminal Serviceability (PT).
2.7. Road User Cost

Road user costs are added vehicle operating costs and delay costs to highway users
resulting from construction, maintenance, or rehabilitation activity. They are a
function of
 the timing, duration, frequency, scope, and characteristics of the work zone,
 the volume and operating characteristics of the traffic affected,
 and the cost rates assigned to vehicle operations and delays.
16
Road User Costs (RUC) consists of three components:
1. Vehicle Operating Costs (VOC), the physical costs of operating a vehicle such
as fuel, spare parts, crew costs, maintenance costs, depreciation, etc.
2. Travel Time Costs (TTC), the value of time spent in travelling that could be
used in other activities
3. Accident Costs (AC), that is, the physical costs of an accident and the value of
injuries and fatalities.
2.7.1. Vehicle Operating Cost

Vehicle Costs include direct user expenses to own and use private vehicles plus
incremental costs for mobility substitutes. These indicate the savings that result from
reduced vehicle ownership and use. Vehicle costs can be measured in various ways,
for example per vehicle-km, passenger-km or vehicle-year, producing different
results. These can be divided into fixed (also called ownership or time-based, which
are unaffected by the amount a vehicle is driven) and variable (also called operating,
marginal or incremental, which increase with vehicle mileage).
The way in which a vehicle is utilised is a key parameter in estimating VOC. In Sri
Lanka commercial vehicles are often intensively utilised. Buses in particular, are
operated around the clock with different sets of crews on day-time and night-time
schedules.
A vehicle purchase cost is another important factor required to determine vehicle

depreciation cost within its service life. HDM-4 needs the economic value of
representative vehicles, and these values can be obtained from the Sri Lanka Customs.
Other consumable costs such as fuel, lubricant, tyre and other wastage and vehicle
maintenance costs are important in finding VOC.
2.7.2. Value of travel time

Saving in travel time is primary economic outcome in transport sector projects.
Simply put, increase in speed or reduced wasting results in shorter travel time and
17
saving in the corresponding economic value of time. The following three groups
enjoy travel time savings:
 Passengers
 Freight consignees
 Transport operators
Total passenger time saved can be calculated by multiplying the numbers of

passengers in each type of vehicle by the number of vehicles by type and by the
vehicle travel time saved. There are three principal methods to estimate the value of
travel time savings, as follows:
a) Income Rate method, which links the value of travel time to person income.
b) Opinion Survey method, which derives value of time from opinion surveys of
the monetary value prospective users place on potential time savings.
c) Revealed Preference method, which determines value of time by statically
comparing the price differentials and time differentials of different transport
related choices.
Travel time is an important function in the movement of freight. There are two
dimensions to its impact on the economic implications of goods movement. On the
one hand, increased travel time translate to higher transport costs. The other impact is
the cost to the consignees of goods. In this case, the time loss can lead to two different
types of economic consequences;
 Having to carry higher inventory levels
 Losses sustained by perishable commodities such as vegetables, milk, etc.
Transport operators of passenger and goods vehicles also enjoy financial benefits
from travel time savings. This is from greater resource productivity of the vehicle as
well as the crew.
2.8. Road Maintenance

The purpose of maintenance is to ensure that the road does not fail before the end of
its design life. In doing this, maintenance reduces the rate of road deterioration, it
lowers the cost of operating vehicles on the road by providing a smooth running
18
surface, and it keeps the road open on a continuous basis by preventing it from
becoming impassable. It is a relatively low cost activity and specifically excludes
those works designed to increase the strength or improve the alignment of the road.
Upgrading aims at providing additional capacity when a road is nearing the end of its
design life or because there has been an unforeseen change in use of the road. Typical
examples of upgrading projects are the paving of gravel roads, the provision of
strengthening overlays for paved roads and the widening of roads.
Roads maintenance is classified according to the time and frequency of performing

the operation.
Routine maintenance
Routine maintenance includes all maintenance activities that have to be carried out at
least once per year, if not more frequently. Such activities include inspections,
cleaning of drains, controlling of vegetation, filling of potholes and ruts, etc.
Periodic maintenance
All repairs carried out less frequently are considered periodic maintenance. Periodic
maintenance includes all sorts of repairs including resurfacing, overlays, and
reconstruction of pavement, base and even sub-base course. Periodic maintenance
intervals vary according to the needs and may be irregular. The intervals depend to a
large extent on the quality of the construction. Planners should play with different
periodic maintenance scenarios to obtain the most cost-effective one. They can opt for
more frequent and less effective but cheap repairs, e.g.: five-year intervals, or to work
with larger intervals choosing rehabilitation techniques that are very effective but also
expensive. The interval sets performance requirements to the routine maintenance
budgets and activities. Ideally planners would choose the most cost-effective scenario.
Emergency maintenance
Emergency repairs are all maintenance activities that have to carried out immediately
to save lives or prevent disastrous consequences of damaged infrastructure.
19
Maintenance departments need unrestricted access to emergency maintenance budgets
that allow them to carry out repairs to mitigate immediate dangers.
2.8.1. Maintenance standard

Standards refer to the targets or levels of conditions and response that a road
administration aims to achieve. Different standards are set up that can be applied in
practical situations in order to meet specific objectives which are related to functional
characteristics of the road network system. A standard is defined by a set of
operations or works activities with definite intervention criteria to determine when to
carry them out. In general terms, intervention levels define the minimum level of
service that is allowed. A standard is user-defined according to the road surface class
to which it is applied, the characteristics of traffic on the section, and the general
operational practice in the study area based upon engineering, economic and
environmental considerations.
Standards are grouped into two types for input purposes:

i) Maintenance standards
ii) Improvement/construction standards
For a given road feature, only one maintenance standard and/or improvement type
will be effective in any analysis year.
Maintenance standards adopted by the Road Development Authority were used in this
study, and different maintenance standards are available for different pavement types.
2.8.2. Cost of maintenance

Maintenance costs were calculated based on the Highway Scheduled Rate (HSR)
published in 2010.
2.9. Economic Evaluation

The goal of road upgrading projects is, or at least should be, to generate economic
benefits that more than offset the project’s economic cost of implementation. The
main categories of benefits are service improvement and maintenance cost reductions.
The main categories of costs are construction and maintenance.
20
2.9.1. Benefits and cost
Benefits are the economic gains arising from the implementation of a project, which
would not have been obtained without the project. Such gains can include net increase
in economic activity, improvements in the productivity of resources use, and
reduction in costs. Benefits can also be negative if gains are negative. Costs are the
value of the resources used to implement the project.
Benefit and cost analysis is a tool to identify and assess the economic feasibility of
public infrastructure investments. It is widely used in other countries to evaluate
transport projects because of its strengths in promoting economic efficiency and in
supporting effective decision making.
2.9.2. Financial and economic values

Both financial and economic analysis assess project viability. Financial analysis
assesses viability from the point of view of the investor, whereas economic analysis
assesses viability from point of view of society as a whole. Societal benefits and costs
are not the same as benefits and costs to government, as society includes public and
private institutions and individuals.
2.9.3. Opportunity cost

Resources used in transport projects are not available for other use. The economic
value, therefore, is defined as the value of the best alternative use. This is also called
opportunity cost. In liberalized economies such as Sri Lanka, it can be expected that
prices of resource inputs such as labour, material and capital items reasonably reflect
their true market value.
2.9.4. Discount rate

Receiving a benefit next year is less valuable than receiving the same benefit today.
The opposite is true of cost- a cost incurred in the future has less value than a cost
incurred now. Even without inflation, people prefer to receive benefits earlier and
incur costs later. Sometimes this called the time value of money.
21
According to economic theory, the discount rate should be equivalent to the shadow
prices of capital, but shadow prices have not been determined for Sri Lanka recently.
Discount rates can also be approximated by removing inflation from the nominal
opportunity cost of alternative use of money.
2.9.5. Net present value (NPV)

This is calculated by taking the difference between the discounted present value of the
benefits and the costs. NPV is the most suitable method for comparing benefits and
costs for transport projects. If NPV is positive at the appropriate discount rate, the
project will generate a net benefit for the country, and so is generally preferred. NPV
is also most appropriate for selecting projects, as it meets the objective of choosing
projects that yield the highest net benefits.
2.9.6. Economic internal rate of return (EIRR)

The Internal Rate of Return (IRR) or Economic Rate of Return (ERR) is a rate of
return used in capital budgeting to measure and compare the profitability of
investments. It is also called the Discounted Cash Flow Rate of Return (DCFROR) or
the Rate of Return (ROR). The term internal refers to the fact that its calculation does
not incorporate environmental factors.
It is useful, however for preliminary screening of projects and for evaluating projects
when the appropriate discount rate is uncertain.
22
CHAPTER 3: METHODOLOGY
3.1. General
The following five pavement types are used in this analysis to find the AADT
thresholds for pavement upgrading.
i. Gravel road
ii. Penetration Macadam (PM)
iii. Surface Dressing (SD)
iv. Asphalt Concrete (AC)
v. Portland Cement Concrete (PCC)
Gravel roads are used as the lowest strength pavement for this study, while and PM
and SD pavements are higher strength pavements respectively. AC and PCC
pavements are the highest strength pavements used in this analysis. Therefore
upgrading options were considered only for Gravel, PM and SD pavements.
Each pavement layer thickness was selected according to the Road Note-31 for
bituminous sections, and as per the AASHTO guideline for PCC roads.
Traffic categories were defined based on AADT, heavy vehicle percentage (HV%)
and growth rate. Four AADT levels (100, 250, 500 and 1000), three HV % (Low,
Medium and High) and three growth rates (2%, 4%, 6%) were used for the analysis.
Subgrade support was also divided into three groups based on the CBR value such as
low subgrade support at CBR 5%, medium subgrade support at CBR 12% and high
subgrade support at CBR 20%.
Climate condition is also considered to assess the effect of climate on different

pavement types. In this study mainly two climate zones were defined as dry and wet,
and thresholds were found for these climate conditions.
Vehicle fleet, maintenance options and interventions adopted by the Road

Development Authority were used for HDM-4 strategy analysis.
23
EIRR values of each upgrading options were used to find the thresholds values.
3.2. Selection of Different Road Sections

Each pavement section designed based on traffic and subgrade strength was
considered for this study.
Designed pavement sections are illustrated below;
100 mm – Gravel thickness

5m
Figure 3.1 Gravel road section
25 mm – Penetration macadam base

5m
Figure 3.2 Penetration Macadam road section
25 mm – Double bituminous surface treatment

150 mm – Dense graded aggregate base
5m
Figure 3.3 Surface Dressing road section
150 mm – Grade 25 mass concrete

5m
Figure 3.4 Portland Cement Concrete road section
50 mm – Asphalt concrete surface

150 mm – Dense graded aggregate base
5m
Figure 3.5 Asphalt Concrete road section
24
It is also assumed that road geometric features will not change with upgrading and
therefore the effect of geometric condition is excluded. Selected road sections’ details
are described below.
Table 3.1 Road section details (RDA, 2008)

Pavement type Length IRI Speed Drainage
(km) (m/km) limit condition
Gravel 1 6 30 Fair
Penetration Macadam 1 4 40 Fair
Surface Dressing 1 3.5 40 Fair
Concrete 1 3 50 Fair
Asphalt Concrete 1 3 50 Fair
3.3. Upgrading Options

When considering pavement upgrading options, PCC and AC pavements are
considered the best pavement type, and upgrading sequences are based on the current
Sri Lankan practice as depicted below.
Portland Cement Concrete

Surface Dressed
(PCC)
(SD)
Gravel
Asphalt Concrete
(AC)
Penetration Macadam
(PM)
Figure 3.6 Pavement upgrading options
25
Gravel pavement was the lowest strength pavement type used in this analysis and it
will upgrade to Penetration Macadam or Portland Cement Concrete road under the
current practice in Sri Lanka. Penetration Macadam pavement is next in strength, and
for it, upgrading was considered to Surface Dressing, Portland Cement Concrete or
Asphalt Concrete. Surface Dressed is the next higher strength pavement type and
upgrading to Portland Cement Concrete or Aasphalt Concrete was considered in this
analysis.
3.4. Traffic Data

Traffic volume is a critical input data item for all HDM analysis, since the total
transport costs are dominated by road user costs which are proportional to the traffic
volume. In addition, the commercial vehicle volume influences the rate of pavement
deterioration.
3.4.1. Vehicle fleet

Vehicle fleet includes different vehicle types that are used in considered road
network, and it is used for calculating vehicle speeds, operating costs, travel time
costs and other vehicle effects in HDM-4 analysis.
The following table shows the vehicle fleet used in HDM analysis with their
representative vehicles and the vehicle codes.
Table 3.2 Vehicle fleet used in HDM analysis (RDA, 2008)

Vehicle Type Code Representative Vehicle
Motor Cycles MCL Bajaj Pulsar DTS-I 150CC
Three Wheel TWL Bajaj 145CC
Car CAR Toyota corolla 1500CC
Passenger Van VAN Toyota Hi-ace
Medium Bus MBU Mitsubishi Rosa
Large Bus LBU Ashok Leyland (Viking)
Light Goods Vehicle LGV Isuzu ELF
Medium Goods Vehicle MGV Isuzu Forward 450
Heavy Goods Vehicle HGV Ashok Leyland (Taurus 2516)
Tractor/ Trail FVH Kubota K75
26
3.4.2. Traffic composition and ESA
Different traffic composition for different heavy vehicle percentages available in low
volume roads is depicted below.
Table 3.3 Vehicle compositions used in HDM analysis (Gayani, 2007)

Low Med High ESA
Min Max AVG Selected
HV HV HV
MCL 35 44 39.5 40 44 40 35
TWL 23 30 26.5 27 30 27 25
CAR 2 6 4 4 6 4 3 0.000444
VAN 0 3 1.5 2 3 2 2 0.000444
LGV 4 8 6 6 5 6 6 0.00068
MGV 3 10 6.5 7 3 7 10 0.01626
HGV 3 7 5 5 3 5 7 0.07697
MBU 2 7 4.5 5 2 5 7 0.00655
LBU 1 3 2 2 1 2 3 0.06656
FVH 0 4 2 2 3 2 2 0.00379
97.5 100 100 100 100
HV % 7 14 20
Heavy vehicles
3.4.3. Traffic growth rate

Traffic growth rates are another important parameter in predicting future performance
of road sections. It is also very difficult to predict accurately, therefore for the analysis
three different growth rates were used: 2%, 4% and 6%.
3.5. HDM-4 Model Preparation

Preparation of HDM-4 model can be described as follows:
 Road network definition
 Vehicle fleet data
 Maintenance/Improvement standards and Work effect
 Traffic composition and growth
 Other configurations
◦ Traffic flow
◦ Speed flow
◦ Climate
27
3.5.1. Road network definition
Two different road networks have to be prepared since different climate zones cannot
be defined in a single network. Therefore two networks were prepared for dry and wet
climate conditions.
Altogether 120 road sections were prepared for analysis in different pavement types,
traffic categories, subgrade support and climate conditions.
Table 3.4 Road network file definitions

Pavement Types AC, PCC, SD, PM, Gravel
AADT 100, 250, 500, 1000
Subgrade CBR 5%, 12%, 20%
Carriageway width 5.5 m
Shoulder width 1m
Geometry Rise+falls=3m/km, Avg hor curvature=50deg/km, speed limit=50km/h
Pavement See table 3.5
Condition See table 3.1 for IRI values
Table 3.5 Pavement types’ data

AC Last surface thickness=50mm, new construction=2010, SN=3.73, 3.37, 2.55 for
subgrade CBR 20%, 12% and 5%
PCC Slab thickness=150mm, static reaction of modulus=40,60,76 MPa/m for subgrade
support low, med and high
SD Last surface thickness=25mm, new construction=2010, SN=3.06, 2.78, 2.19 for
PM Last surface thickness=5mm, new construction=2010, SN=2.69, 2.40, 2.09 for
Gravel Surface material=lateritic gravel, compaction method=mechanical, subgrade
material=GF,SF, GC for subgrade support low, med and high
3.5.2. Vehicle fleet data

Basic vehicle types used in vehicle fleet were described in 3.2 above, and other
information required for HDM vehicle fleet configuration are
i) Basic characteristics
28
ii) Economic unit costs
Basic characteristics include each vehicle type’s physical data, tyre details, utilization
and loading information such as passenger car space equivalent (PCSE), number of
wheels and axles, annual usage, average life and equivalent standard axles etc.
Economic unit costs include vehicle resources and time value information such as
new vehicle price, fuel price, tyre price, maintenance cost, passenger working time,
cargo value etc.
The Vehicle Fleet information prepared for HDM analysis is attached in Appendix A.
3.5.3. Maintenance/improvement standards and work effect

Maintenance and improvement standards incorporate different maintenance items for
different pavement types, upgrading options and financial and economic cost incurred
for maintenance work. Work effect includes road condition after maintenance work
carried out.
Table 3.6 Work standards (RDA, 2006)

Pavement Maintenance Work Item Intervention Work effect
type type criteria
AC Routine Crack seal > 10% Cracks=0%

Pothole patching > 10 nos/km Potholes=0
Edge repair >50 m2/km Edge break=0
Miscellaneous Annually
Periodic Resurface IRI > 5 m/km IRI=3 m/km
PCC Routine Partial depth Spalling>10% Repair 100%

repair
Full depth repair Failures>20% Repair 100%
Joint seal Annually
Periodic Slab replacement Total Repair 100%
carriageway
cracks > 20%
29
SD Routine Crack seal > 10% Cracks=0%
Pothole patching > 10 nos/km Potholes=0
Periodic Resurface Total damaged IRI=3.5 m/km
area > 20%
PM Routine Pothole patching > 10 nos/km Potholes=0
Periodic Sand sealing Every 5th year IRI=4 m/km
Gravel Routine Spot graveling Gravel thickness Repair 100%
< 75mm
Re-graveling Gravel thickness Repair 100%
< 50mm
Periodic Grading IRI > 12 m/km IRI=6 m/km
Cost estimates for different maintenance work item and upgrading options are given
in Appendix B.
3.5.4. Traffic composition and growth

Traffic composition and growth rates used in this analysis are described in section 3.4.
3.5.5. Other configurations

Other basic configurations required to run HDM-4 are,
i) Traffic flow pattern
This describes how the traffic flow is distribute throughout the year, and for
this study the following HDM-4 default traffic flow types were used.
Table 3.7 Traffic flow pattern
Period Description Hours per year % of AADT
1 Peak 87.6 3.05
2 Next to peak 350.4 11.33
3 Medium flow 613.2 16.55
4 Next to low 2978.4 56.26
5 Overnight 4730.4 12.81
30
ii) Speed flow type
Speed flow type characterizes the road section capacity, free speed, jam speed
and so on. The default values used in the HDM-4 analysis are:
Ultimate capacity = 1400 PCSE/lane/hr
Free flow capacity = 0.1 x Ultimate capacity
Nominal capacity = 0.9 x Ultimate capacity
Jam speed = 25 km/h
iii) Climate
Two climate zones were used for analysis namely dry and wet (Department of
Metrology, 2011). Their details are:
Dry climate zone:
Mean monthly precipitation = 125 mm
Duration of dry season = 0.75 (as a fraction of year)
Mean temperature = 27.5 oC
Wet climate zone:

Mean monthly precipitation = 300 mm
Duration of dry season = 0.25 (as a fraction of year)
Mean temperature = 16 oC
31
CHAPTER 4: ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION OF RESULT
4.1. HDM-4 Strategy Analysis

HDM-4 strategy analysis was carried out to find the AADT thresholds based on
subgrade strength, climate condition and traffic growth rate.
Analysis was conducted for 20 years period with maximize net present value option in
HDM-4.
Strategy analysis was done for different heavy vehicle percentages and growth rates
with 12% discount rate. Carrying out only the routine maintenance considered as base
case and each upgrading options were considered as alternatives.
4.2. HDM-4 Output

HDM-4 output elaborate road deterioration and work effect, traffic variations, road
user effect, environmental effect and economic indicators. In this study main concern
was the economic indicators of strategy analysis. NPV and EIRR are main economic
indicators used to find the AADT thresholds.
EIRR values given by HDM-4 for different pavement types under different upgrading
options are attached in Appendix C.
4.3. Economic Analysis Summary

EIRR values given in the HDM-4 output for different AADT, HV%, growth rates,
subgrade conditions and climate conditions were used to find the AADT threshold
values at which EIRR is equal to the discount rate. This gave the threshold AADT
values at which the road pavement upgrading is economically feasible under given
conditions.
32
4.3.1. Upgrading gravel roads
Specimen calculation
Graph in Figure 4.1depicted EIRR vs AADT for upgrading gravel roads to PM and
PCC for growth rate 2% and 7% of HV in dry climate.
This can be used to determine threshold AADT value at where EIRR is 12%.
160
150
140
130
120
110
100
90
EIRR
80 Gr>PM
70 Gr>PCC
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
-10 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000
AADT
Figure 4.1 EIRR Vs AADT for Upgrading Gr to PM and PCC at GR 2% and HV 7%
in Dry Climate
Base on the above graph, threshold AADT value for upgrading Gr to PM at 2% of GR

and 7% of HV in dry climate is 192 and threshold AADT value for upgrading Gr to
PCC at 2% of GR and 7% of HV in dry climate is 446.
Similarly each threshold AADT values can be found for each upgrading option at
where EIRR is equal to 12%.
33
Dry climate
Table 4.1 Threshold AADT values for upgrading Gr roads in dry climate
HV % Low (7%) Medium (14%) High (20%)
GR 2% 4% 6% 2% 4% 6% 2% 4% 6%
Gr to
PM 192 158 140 170 146 125 165 142 123
Gr to
PCC 446 368 300 379 310 246 353 289 231
Wet climate
Table 4.2 Threshold AADT values for upgrading Gr roads in wet climate
GR 2% 4% 6% 2% 4% 6% 2% 4% 6%
Gr to
PM 191 161 136 164 136 115 158 130 112
Gr to
PCC 398 334 275 343 282 227 324 267 213
According to the analysis result effect of climate condition for upgrading gravel roads
to PM is negligible. Effect of HV% and growth rate of traffic is considerable.
However traffic growth rate is the most influential factor in upgrading gravel roads to
PM.
Climate condition, HV% and traffic growth rate have considerable effect in upgrading
gravel roads to PCC.
4.3.2. Upgrading penetration macadam roads

Dry climate and at subgrade CBR 5%
subgrade CBR 5%
GR 2% 4% 6% 2% 4% 6% 2% 4% 6%
PM to
SD 509 437 368 429 366 309 411 353 297
PM to
AC 1132 996 840 1014 891 751 987 865 732
PM to
PCC 1881 1530 1185 1664 1373 1069 1569 1298 1029
34
subgrade CBR 12%
GR 2% 4% 6% 2% 4% 6% 2% 4% 6%
PM to
SD 511 442 372 434 372 313 417 358 303
PM to
AC 1132 998 840 1020 895 755 993 872 738
PM to
PCC 1883 1541 1184 1684 1368 1072 1586 1310 1032

subgrade CBR 20%
GR 2% 4% 6% 2% 4% 6% 2% 4% 6%
PM to
SD 516 445 374 438 374 315 420 361 304
PM to
AC 1136 1003 843 1022 899 758 997 876 739
PM to
PCC 1892 1552 1191 1684 1381 1078 1604 1317 1035
Wet climate and at subgrade CBR 5%

subgrade CBR 5%
GR 2% 4% 6% 2% 4% 6% 2% 4% 6%
PM to
SD 487 416 351 409 350 294 393 334 280
PM to
AC 1105 962 807 986 857 1263 957 830 701
PM to
PCC 1736 1420 1111 1551 720 1003 1450 1204 958
35
subgrade CBR 12%
GR 2% 4% 6% 2% 4% 6% 2% 4% 6%
PM to
SD 492 422 355 416 355 298 399 339 285
PM to
AC 1112 966 811 992 861 727 961 838 706
PM to
PCC 1757 1425 1117 1569 1275 1006 1475 1212 963

subgrade CBR 20%
GR 2% 4% 6% 2% 4% 6% 2% 4% 6%
PM to
SD 495 424 357 419 356 301 402 344 288
PM to
AC 1113 972 815 996 865 727 969 842 709
PM to
PCC 1757 1434 1117 1570 1282 1011 1481 1218 970
Upgrading of PM roads also considered the effect of sub grade support, climate
condition, traffic growth rate and heavy vehicle fraction.
Analysis results show the effect of subgrade strength is negligible in upgrading

pavement type. Also effect of climate condition is not highly sensitive. But effect of
traffic growth rate and heavy vehicle percentage need to be considered in upgrading
pavement.
36
4.3.3. Upgrading surface dressing roads
subgrade CBR 5%
GR 2% 4% 6% 2% 4% 6% 2% 4% 6%
SD to
PCC 1301 1031 826 1089 967 826 1082 959 814
SD to
AC 1537 1277 1013 1445 1198 1013 1412 1178 988

subgrade CBR 12%
GR 2% 4% 6% 2% 4% 6% 2% 4% 6%
SD to
PCC 1310 1034 829 1089 970 829 1086 962 818
SD to
AC 1538 1282 1018 1445 1198 1013 1412 1178 988

subgrade CBR 20%
GR 2% 4% 6% 2% 4% 6% 2% 4% 6%
SD to
PCC 1308 1036 833 1091 969 833 1087 965 820
SD to
AC 1550 1282 1018 1457 1206 1018 1423 1186 995
37
subgrade CBR 5%
GR 2% 4% 6% 2% 4% 6% 2% 4% 6%
SD to
PCC 1122 1014 877 1079 946 807 1071 933 793
SD to
AC 1451 1234 1047 1361 1154 980 1324 1124 951
Wet climate and subgrade CBR 12%

subgrade CBR 12%
GR 2% 4% 6% 2% 4% 6% 2% 4% 6%
SD to
PCC 1122 1018 881 1086 951 813 1077 937 801
SD to
AC 1464 1234 1052 1361 1154 980 1324 1124 951
Wet climate and subgrade CBR 20%

subgrade CBR 20%
GR 2% 4% 6% 2% 4% 6% 2% 4% 6%
SD to
PCC 1122 1018 881 1085 954 813 1079 941 802
SD to
AC 1464 1242 1054 1376 1166 987 1345 1139 963
Upgrading of SD roads also considered the effect of sub grade support, climate
condition, traffic growth rate and heavy vehicle percentage.
Analysis results show the effect of subgrade strength is negligible when subgrade
CBR is more than 5% in upgrading SD pavement to AC or PCC. Also effect of
climate condition is not highly sensitive. But effect of traffic growth rate and heavy
vehicle percentage need to be considered in upgrading these pavement.
38
CHAPTER 5: CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
5.1. Introduction
This study was carried out to find the thresholds of upgrading low volume roads based
on the traffic, the subgrade support and the climate condition. The effect of traffic
incorporated the intensity, the heavy vehicle percentage and the growth rate. The
subgrade support is determined based on the CBR values and considered only
subgrade CBR larger than 5%. The effect of climate considered in wet and dry
condition. Furthermore, base scenario of each upgrade option was carrying out the
proper routing and periodic maintenance to the existing pavement.
The HDM-4 tool is used to model and analyse the each options and AADT thresholds
for each option was found.
5.2. Upgrading Gravel Roads

Following table shows AADT thresholds values rounded to nearest ten for upgrading
gravel roads to penetration macadam or Portland cement concrete under three
different vehicle growth rates, heavy vehicle percentages and two climate condition
(climate conditions only for upgrading Gr to PCC).
Table 5.1 Threshold AADT values for upgrading Gr roads

GR 2% 4% 6% 2% 4% 6% 2% 4% 6%
Gr to
190 160 140 170 140 120 160 140 120
PM
Gr to
PCC 450 370 300 380 310 250 350 290 230
(Dry)
Gr to
PCC 400 330 280 340 280 230 320 270 210
(Wet)
5.3. Upgrading Penetration Macadam Roads

Following tables show rounded AADT thresholds for upgrading penetration macadam
roads to surface dressing, asphalt concrete or Portland cement concrete under two
climate zones, three different traffic growth rates and heavy vehicle percentages.
39
Table 5.2 Threshold AADT values for upgrading PM roads in dry climate
GR 2% 4% 6% 2% 4% 6% 2% 4% 6%
PM to
510 440 370 430 370 310 420 360 300
SD
PM to
1130 1000 840 1020 900 750 990 870 740
AC
PM to
1890 1540 1190 1680 1370 1070 1590 1310 1030
PCC
Table 5.3 Threshold AADT values for upgrading PM roads in wet climate
GR 2% 4% 6% 2% 4% 6% 2% 4% 6%
PM to
490 420 350 410 350 300 400 340 280
SD
PM to
1110 970 810 990 860 910 960 840 710
AC
PM to
1750 1430 1120 1560 1090 1010 1470 1210 960
PCC
5.4. Upgrading Surface Dressing Roads

Following tables show rounded AADT thresholds for upgrading surface dressing
roads to asphalt concrete or Portland cement concrete under two climate zones, three
different traffic growth rates and heavy vehicle percentages.
Table 5.4 Threshold AADT values for upgrading SD roads in dry climate
GR 2% 4% 6% 2% 4% 6% 2% 4% 6%
SD to
1310 1030 830 1090 970 830 1090 960 820
PCC
SD to
1540 1280 1020 1450 1200 1010 1420 1180 990
AC
Table 5.5 Threshold AADT values for upgrading SD roads in wet climate
GR 2% 4% 6% 2% 4% 6% 2% 4% 6%
SD to
1120 1020 880 1080 950 810 1080 940 800
PCC
SD to
1460 1240 1050 1370 1160 980 1330 1130 960
AC
40
5.5. Conclusions and Recommendation
Upgrading of the pavement of low volume roads to achieve the maximum economic
benefit is a great challenge in Sri Lanka owing to inadequate guidelines and bad
practice. Current practice is merely to upgrade the low volume roads to PCC or AC.
The economic feasibility of this approach is highly questionable.
In this research, the economic feasibility of upgrading the low volume roads
pavement were analysed with respect to possible traffic, subgrade and climate
conditions. In this attempt respective AADT thresholds values were found using
HDM-4 model.
But due to time constraint calibration of the HDM-4 model was done based on the
available field data. This can be further improved by calibrating HDM-4 model to the
each pavement type by undertaking major field surveys and controlled experiments to
enhance the existing predictive relationships.
Also this research can be further extend to find the economic benefits of doing proper
maintenance and fund requirements for proper maintenance of low volume roads.
This research has found traffic intensity and vehicle growth rates are highly important
factors of upgrading of road pavements. The second most important is identified as
the heavy vehicle percentage running on the road. However, effect of climate
condition is very less. Sensitivity of subgrade strength is negligible as the pavement is
designed to harmonize with the subgrade and this research considered only subgrade
having more than 5% of CBR.
The AADT thresholds values can be found from tables 5.1, 5.2, 5.3, 5.4 and 5.5 for
upgrading the low volume roads pavement in Sri Lanka to get the maximum
economic benefits with proper maintenance and when exogenous benefits are
negligible.
41
REFERENCES
1) The World Road Association (PIARC), 2000. Highway Development and

Management Series, Volume one: Overview of HDM-4.Paris: The World Road
Association

Management Series, Volume four: Analytical Framework and Model
Descriptions, Paris: The World Road Association

Management Series, Volume five: A Guide to Calibration and Adaptation,
Paris: The World Road Association
4) Transport Research Laboratory, 1993.Overseas Road Note 31, 4th ed., A Guide
to the Structural Design of Bitumen-surfaced roads in Tropical and Sub-
tropical Countries. London: Transport Research Laboratory
5) American Association of State Highway and Transport Officials, 1998.Design

of Pavement Structures, Part II: Rigid Pavement Design and Rigid Pavement
Joint Design. USA: American Association of State Highway and Transport
Officials
6) Gayani J.K.U., 2008. Rigid Pavement Design with Recycled Concrete

Aggregate for Low Volume Roads. MSc diss., University of Moratuwa.
7) Gunasinghe P.H., 2008. Effectiveness of Traffic Forecasting on Pavement

Designs in Sri Lankan Roads. MSc diss., University of Moratuwa.
8) Retzlaff H., Kent S., Podborochynski D. and Krawec J. Guidelines for

upgrading Low Volume Roads in Saskatchewan. Paper presented at the
Annual Conference of the Transportation Association of Canada. 2007
42
9) Selim K.S.A.A, 2000. Gravel Roads Maintenace and Design Manual. U.S.
Department of Transportation
10) Anita Ihs and Leif Sjögren, 2003. An overview of HDM-4 and the Swedish
Pavement Management System (PMS).Linköping: Väg- och transport forsknings
institutet
11) Universityof Birmingham, International Study of Highway Development &

Management, 2000. [online] Available at: http://www.birmingham.ac.uk/
research/activity/civil-engineering/ transport/highways /index.aspx [accessed
on December, 2011]
12) Department of Meteorology, Climate in Sri Lanka, 2011. [online] Available

at: http://www.meteo.gov.lk/ index.php?option =com_content&view=
article&id=106&Itemid=81&lang=en [accessed on December, 2011]
43
APPENDIX A: VEHICLE FLEET DATA
Table A.1 Vehicle fleet data used in HDM-4 model (RDA, 2008)
MCL 3WL CAR VAN MBU LBU LGV MGV

New (in country) Vehicle Price 83,200.00 154,618.00 1,277,043.00 862,000.00 2,651,046.00 2,126,866.00 496,582.00 1,116,604.00
Replacement Tire 1,131.00 1,080.00 3,214.00 2,700.00 3,343.00 5,528.00 2,700.00 3,343.00
Fuel (per liter) 98.00 98.00 98.00 72.00 72.00 72.00 72.00 72.00
Lubricating Oil (per liter) 229.50 229.50 229.50 219.75 219.75 219.75 219.75 219.75
Maintenance Labour (per hr) 80.00 80.00 80.00 80.00 80.00 80.00 80.00 80.00
Crew Wages (per hr) 65.00 65.00 80.00 95.00 130.00 125.00 100.00 125.00
Annual Overheads 20,335.00 17,692.00 119,299.00 120,275.00 80,966.00 104,227.00 37,196.00 75,664.00
Annual Interest (% per annum) 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12
Passenger working time (per hr) 63.31 350.84 350.84 159.58 38.28 38.28 0 0
Passenger non-working time (per hr) 10.55 58.47 58.47 20.60 6.38 6.38 0 0
Cargo inventory (per hr) 358.00 767.00
44
44
APPENDIX B: ROAD MAINTENANCE AND UPGRADING COSTS
Table B.1 Road maintenance and upgrading costs (HSR, 2010)
Item Financial Economical
Description Unit
No. Cost / (Rs.) Cost / (Rs.)
Bituminous
1 Premix patching Cum 13,908.63 11,822.34
2 Slurry sealing Sqm 211.06 179.40
Sand sealing without rectification,
3 Sqm 97.78 83.11
using premix
Sand sealing with partial
4 Sqm 100.93 85.79
rectification, using premix
Sand sealing with full rectification,
5 Sqm 106.61 90.61
using premix
Sand sealing with partial by
6 Sqm 409.76 348.29
remetalling
Sand sealing with full rectification
7 Sqm 721.73 613.47
by remetalling
8 Edge metalling Lm 694.16 590.04
Rehabilitation of road without
9 Lane km 1,708,912.86 1,452,575.93
increasing carriageway width
New construction with 225mm sub
base, 200mm dense graded aggregate
10 base & 80mm Asphalt concrete Sqm 3,262.79 2,773.37
surfacing. Gravel shoulders on either
side prime or sand sealed.
Upgrading penetration macadam

11 km 4,388,760.00 3,730,446.00
road to surface dressing
Upgrading penetration macadam

12 km 11,913,600.00 10,126,560.00
road to asphalt concrete
Upgrading surface dressing road to

13 km 11,388,000.00 9,679,800.00
asphalt concrete
Concrete
1 Joint seal Lm 85.00 100.00
2 Partial depth repair Sqm 935.00 1,100.00
3 Full depth repair Sqm 1,785.00 2,100.00
4 Slab replacement Sqm 1,845.00 2,170.00
Unsealed
1 Spot graveling Sqm 850.00 1,000.00
2 Regraveling Sqm 1,020.00 1,200.00
3 Grading km 127,500.00 150,000.00
4 Upgrading to penetration macadam km 5,400,000.00 4,600,000.00
5 Upgrading to concrete km 13,900,000.00 16,300,000.00
45
APPENDIX C: EIRR FOR UPGRADING ROADS
Upgrading gravel roads

Dry climate and low HV%
Table C.1 EIRR values for upgrading Gr roads in dry climate at low HV%
Growth rate
AADT 2% 4% 6%
Gr to Gr to Gr to Gr to Gr to Gr to
PM PCC PM PCC PM PCC
100 -1.6 -3.4 3.6 -0.7 7.9 1.9
250 22.4 7.4 26.6 10.2 30.6 12.6
500 56.1 18.6 61.5 21.7 67 24.8
1000 133.6 36.8 142.7 39.7 151.5 41.3
Dry climate and medium HV%

Table C.2 EIRR values for upgrading Gr roads in dry climate at medium HV%
Growth rate
AADT 2% 4% 6%
100 1.1 -2.1 6 0.6 10.3 3.3
250 26.9 9.4 31.3 12.3 35.5 14.8
500 66.4 21.7 72.3 25 78.4 28.3
1000 158.5 42.4 168.9 45.8 179.3 47.7
Dry climate and high HV%

Table C.3 EIRR values for upgrading Gr roads in dry climate at high HV%
Growth rate
AADT 2% 4% 6%
100 2 -1.6 6.7 1 10.9 3.8
250 28.2 10.1 32.7 13 37 15.5
500 69.6 22.9 75.7 26.2 81.9 29.5
1000 166.6 44.7 177.6 48.2 188.5 50.3
46
Wet climate and low HV%
Table C.4 EIRR values for upgrading Gr roads in wet climate at low HV%
Growth rate
AADT 2% 4% 6%
100 -2.3 -3.4 3.4 -0.6 7.9 2.1
250 21.6 7 24.2 8.7 27.4 10.9
500 52.3 15.8 57.6 18.7 59.4 21.4
1000 111 31.1 119.5 36.5 131.6 42.3
Wet climate and medium HV%

Table C.5 EIRR values for upgrading Gr roads in wet climate at medium HV%
Growth rate
AADT 2% 4% 6%
100 0.2 -2.2 5.7 0.7 10.2 3.5
250 26.6 9.4 29.4 11.1 33 13.5
500 62.9 18.8 68.8 21.8 74.6 25.3
1000 132.7 35.9 141.9 41.7 154.5 48
Wet climate and high HV%

Table C.6 EIRR values for upgrading Gr roads in wet climate at high HV%
Growth rate
AADT 2% 4% 6%
100 0.9 -1.8 6.3 1.1 10.8 4
250 28.1 10.3 31.6 12.3 34.5 14.2
500 65.9 20 72 23.1 78.1 26.5
1000 140.3 38.8 149.7 43.9 162.7 50.4
47
Upgrading penetration macadam roads
Dry climate, low HV% and 2% growth rate
growth rate
Sub-grade
Low Med High
AADT PM to PM to PM to PM to PM to PM to PM to PM to PM to
SD AC PCC SD AC PCC SD AC PCC
100 4.6 -10.7 -6.3 4.6 -10.8 -6.4 4.5 -10.8 -6.4
250 7.7 -5 -3.7 7.7 -5 -3.7 7.7 -5 -3.7
500 12.3 0.7 -0.8 12.3 0.6 -0.8 12.2 0.6 -0.9
1000 20.2 7.9 2.6 20.1 7.9 2.5 20 7.8 2.5

growth rate
Sub-grade
AADT Low Med High
PM to PM to PM to PM to PM to PM to PM to PM to PM to
100 5.1 -9.1 -5.6 5 -9.2 -5.6 5 -9.2 -5.6
250 8.7 -3.1 -2.5 8.7 -3.2 -2.5 8.7 -3.1 -2.5
500 13.6 2.4 0.5 13.5 2.4 0.5 13.4 2.3 0.5
1000 22.6 11 5.2 22.4 10.9 5.1 22.3 10.8 5

growth rate
Sub-grade
Low Med High
100 5.7 -7.5 -4.7 5.6 -7.5 -4.8 5.6 -7.6 -4.8
250 9.8 -1.2 -1.2 9.8 -1.3 -1.2 9.8 -1.2 -1.2
500 15.2 4.6 2.3 15.1 4.6 2.2 15 4.5 2.2
1000 25.6 15.1 8.9 25.4 15.1 8.9 25.3 15 8.8
48
Dry climate, medium HV% and 2% growth rate
2% growth rate
Sub-grade
Low Med High
100 5 -9.8 -5.9 5 -9.8 -5.9 4.9 -9.9 -5.9
250 8.7 -3.7 -2.9 8.6 -3.8 -2.9 8.6 -3.7 -2.9
500 13.9 2.3 0.3 13.8 2.2 0.2 13.7 2.2 0.2
1000 23.1 10.3 3.9 22.9 10.2 3.8 22.8 10.1 3.8

4% growth rate
Sub-grade
Low Med High
100 5.6 -8.1 -5 5.5 -8.2 -5.1 5.5 -8.2 -5.1
250 9.8 -1.8 -1.6 9.7 -1.8 -1.6 9.7 -1.8 -1.6
500 15.4 4.2 1.7 15.3 4.1 1.7 15.2 4 1.6
1000 25.8 13.4 6.6 25.5 13.3 6.6 25.4 13.2 6.5

6% growth rate
Sub-grade
Low Med High
100 6.3 -6.4 -4.1 6.2 -6.5 -4.1 6.2 -6.5 -4.1
250 11 0.2 -0.1 10.9 0.1 -0.2 10.9 0.1 -0.2
500 17.1 6.5 3.6 17 6.4 3.5 16.9 6.3 3.5
1000 28.9 17.6 10.4 28.7 17.5 10.4 28.5 17.4 10.3
49
Dry climate, high HV% and 2% growth rate
growth rate
Sub-grade
Low Med High
100 5.1 -9.6 -5.7 5 -9.6 -5.7 5 -9.7 -5.7
250 8.9 -3.4 -2.5 8.8 -3.5 -2.6 8.8 -3.5 -2.6
500 14.3 2.7 0.8 14.2 2.6 0.7 14.1 2.5 0.6
1000 24 10.9 4.6 23.8 10.8 4.5 23.6 10.7 4.4

growth rate
Sub-grade
Low Med High
100 5.7 -7.9 -4.8 5.6 -8 -4.8 5.6 -8 -4.9
250 10 -1.5 -1.2 9.9 -1.6 -1.2 9.9 -1.6 -1.2
500 15.8 4.6 2.3 15.6 4.5 2.2 15.5 4.4 2.1
1000 26.7 14.1 7.3 26.5 13.9 7.2 26.3 13.8 7.1

growth rate
Sub-grade
Low Med High
100 6.4 -6.2 -3.8 6.3 -6.3 -3.8 6.3 -6.3 -3.9
250 11.2 0.5 0.3 11.1 0.4 0.2 11.1 0.4 0.2
500 17.6 6.9 4.1 17.4 6.8 4 17.3 6.7 4
1000 29.9 18.2 11 29.6 18 11 29.5 18 10.9
50
Wet climate, low HV% and 2% growth rate
growth rate
Sub-grade
Low Med High
AADT
100 4.7 -9.8 -6.1 4.7 -9.8 -6.1 4.7 -9.9 -6.1
250 8 -4.3 -3.2 8 -4.3 -3.2 8 -4.3 -3.2
500 12.8 1.3 -0.1 12.7 1.2 -0.2 12.6 1.2 -0.2
1000 20.8 8.6 3.4 20.6 8.5 3.3 20.5 8.4 3.3

growth rate
Sub-grade
Low Med High
AADT
100 5.3 -8.3 -5.3 5.2 -8.4 -5.3 5.2 -8.4 -5.3
250 9.1 -2.4 -1.9 9 -2.5 -2 9 -2.5 -2
500 14.1 3.1 1.3 14 3 1.2 13.9 2.9 1.2
1000 23.2 11.8 6.1 23 11.7 6.1 22.9 11.6 6

growth rate
Sub-grade
Low Med High
AADT
100 5.9 -6.7 -4.3 5.9 -6.8 -4.3 5.8 -6.8 -4.4
250 10.2 -0.5 -0.5 10.1 -0.6 -0.6 10.2 -0.6 -0.6
500 15.8 5.3 3 15.6 5.2 3 15.5 5.1 2.9
1000 26 16 9.9 25.8 15.9 9.8 25.7 15.8 9.8
51
Wet climate, medium HV% and 2% growth rate
2% growth rate
Sub-grade
Low Med High
AADT
100 5.2 -8.9 -5.5 5.1 -8.9 -5.5 5.1 -9 -5.6
250 9 -3 -2.3 8.9 -3.1 -2.4 8.9 -3.1 -2.3
500 14.4 3 1 14.3 2.9 0.9 14.2 2.8 0.9
1000 23.8 11 4.8 23.5 10.9 4.7 23.3 10.8 4.6

4% growth rate
Sub-grade
Low Med High
AADT
100 5.8 -7.3 -4.6 5.7 -7.4 -4.6 5.7 -7.4 -4.7
250 10.1 -1.1 -0.9 10 -1.2 -1 10.1 -1.2 -1
500 15.9 4.9 2.6 15.8 4.8 2.5 15.7 4.7 2.4
1000 26.5 14.3 7.7 26.2 14.2 7.6 26 14.1 7.5

6% growth rate
Sub-grade
Low Med High
AADT
100 6.5 -5.7 -3.6 6.5 -5.8 -3.6 6.4 -5.8 -3.6
250 11.4 0.9 0.6 11.3 0.8 0.5 11.3 0.8 0.5
500 17.7 7.2 4.4 17.5 7 4.3 17.4 7 4.3
1000 29.4 18.5 11.4 29.1 18.3 11.4 28.9 18.3 11.3
52
Wet climate, high HV% and 2% growth rate
growth rate
Sub-grade
Low Med High
AADT
100 5.3 -8.6 -5.3 5.2 -8.7 -5.3 5.2 -8.8 -5.3
250 9.2 -2.7 -1.9 9.1 -2.8 -2 9.2 -2.8 -2
500 14.8 3.4 1.6 14.7 3.3 1.5 14.5 3.2 1.4
1000 24.7 11.7 5.6 24.4 11.6 5.4 24.2 11.4 5.4

growth rate
Sub-grade
Low Med High
AADT
100 5.9 -7.1 -4.3 5.9 -7.2 -4.4 5.8 -7.2 -4.4
250 10.4 -0.8 -0.5 10.3 -0.9 -0.6 10.3 -0.9 -0.5
500 16.4 5.4 3.1 16.2 5.2 3 16 5.1 3
1000 27.5 15 8.4 27.2 14.8 8.3 27 14.7 8.2

growth rate
Sub-grade
Low Med High
AADT
100 6.7 -5.4 -3.2 6.6 -5.5 -3.3 6.6 -5.6 -3.3
250 11.7 1.2 1 11.6 1.1 1 11.6 1.1 1
500 18.2 7.7 5.1 18 7.5 5 17.8 7.4 4.9
1000 30.5 19.1 12.1 30.2 19 12 29.9 18.9 11.9
53
Upgrading surface dressing roads

growth rate
Sub-grade
Low Med High
AADT SD to SD to SD to SD to SD to SD to
PCC AC PCC AC PCC AC
100 <-90 -14.1 <-90 -14.2 <-90 -14.2
250 <-90 -8.8 <-90 -8.8 <-90 -8.9
500 -6.1 -4.5 -6.3 -4.5 -6.4 -4.6
1000 5.2 1.5 5 1.4 5 1.3

growth rate
Sub-grade
Low Med High
AADT
SD to SD to SD to SD to SD to SD to
100 <-90 -12.3 <-90 -12.4 <-90 -12.4
250 -12.8 -6.8 -13.1 -6.9 -13.2 -6.9
500 -2.5 -2.3 -2.7 -2.4 -2.7 -2.4
1000 10.3 5.7 10.2 5.6 10.1 5.6

growth rate
Sub-grade
Low Med High
AADT
100 <-90 -9.3 <-90 -9.4 <-90 -9.4
250 -6 -3.6 -6.2 -3.7 -6.3 -3.7
500 3.9 2.2 3.8 2.1 3.7 2.1
1000 16.5 10.6 16.4 10.5 16.3 10.5
54
2% growth rate
Sub-grade
Low Med High
AADT
100 <-90 -13 <-90 -13.1 <-90 -13.1
250 -16.8 -7.6 -17.4 -7.6 -17.6 -7.7
500 -3.9 -3.2 -4.1 -3.3 -4.2 -3.3
1000 7.4 2.9 7.2 2.7 7.1 2.7

4% growth rate
Sub-grade
Low Med High
AADT
100 <-90 -11.2 <-90 -11.2 <-90 -11.3
250 -10 -5.6 -10.3 -5.7 -10.4 -5.7
500 -0.4 -0.9 -0.6 -1 -0.6 -1.1
1000 12.4 7.1 12.3 7 12.3 7

6% growth rate
Sub-grade
Low Med High
AADT
100 <-90 -9.3 <-90 -9.4 <-90 -9.4
250 -6 -3.6 -6.2 -3.7 -6.3 -3.7
500 3.9 2.2 3.8 2.1 3.7 2.1
1000 16.5 10.6 16.4 10.5 16.3 10.5
55
growth rate
Sub-grade
Low Med High
AADT
100 <-90 -12.6 <-90 -12.7 <-90 -12.8
250 -16.2 -7.2 -16.9 -7.3 -17.2 -7.3
500 -3.7 -2.7 -4 -2.8 -4.1 -2.9
1000 7.8 3.4 7.5 3.2 7.4 3.2

growth rate
Sub-grade
Low Med High
AADT
100 <-90 -10.8 <-90 -10.9 <-90 -10.9
250 -9.7 -5.2 -10.1 -5.3 -10.2 -5.3
500 -0.3 -0.5 -0.5 -0.7 -0.6 -0.7
1000 12.7 7.5 12.6 7.4 12.5 7.4

growth rate
Sub-grade
Low Med High
AADT
100 <-90 -9 <-90 -9.1 <-90 -9.1
250 -5.8 -3.2 -6.1 -3.3 -6.1 -3.3
500 4.2 2.7 4 2.6 4 2.5
1000 16.9 11.1 16.8 11 16.7 11
56
growth rate
Sub-grade
Low Med High
AADT
100 < -90 -13.5 < -90 -13.6 < -90 -13.6
250 -17.9 -8.1 -18.5 -8.2 -18.8 -8.3
500 -5.3 -3.8 -5.5 -3.9 -5.6 -3.9
1000 6.5 2.8 6.3 2.6 6.2 2.6

growth rate
Sub-grade
Low Med High
AADT
100 -75.7 -11.7 -77.9 -11.8 -78.4 -11.8
250 -11.2 -6.2 -11.5 -6.3 -11.6 -6.3
500 -1.4 -1.4 -1.7 -1.5 -1.8 -1.6
1000 10.9 6.4 10.8 6.4 10.8 6.3

growth rate
Sub-grade
Low Med High
AADT
100 -31.7 -9.9 -33.7 -10 -34.3 -10
250 -7.2 -4.2 -7.4 -4.3 -7.5 -4.3
500 3 1.8 2.8 1.7 2.8 1.6
1000 14.7 9.7 14.6 9.6 14.6 9.6
57
2% growth rate
Sub-grade
Low Med High
AADT
100 < -90 -12.4 < -90 -12.5 < -90 -12.5
250 -13.8 -6.9 -14.3 -7 -14.4 -7
500 -3.2 -2.4 -3.5 -2.6 -3.5 -2.6
1000 8.7 4.2 8.4 4.1 8.4 4

4% growth rate
Sub-grade
Low Med High
AADT
100 -56.3 -10.5 -59.5 -10.6 -60.6 -10.6
250 -8.8 -4.9 -9.1 -5 -9.2 -5
500 0.5 0 0.2 -0.1 0.1 -0.2
1000 13 7.9 12.9 7.8 12.8 7.7

6% growth rate
Sub-grade
Low Med High
AADT
100 -21.6 -8.7 -22.5 -8.8 -22.9 -8.8
250 -5.2 -2.9 -5.5 -3 -5.5 -3
500 4.9 3.2 4.6 3.1 4.6 3
1000 16.8 11.1 16.7 11 16.7 11
58
growth rate
Sub-grade
Low Med High
AADT
100 < -90 -12 < -90 -12.1 < -90 -12.1
250 -13.3 -6.4 -13.9 -6.5 -14.1 -6.6
500 -2.9 -1.9 -3.2 -2.1 -3.3 -2.1
1000 9 4.8 8.7 4.6 8.6 4.5

Sub-grade
Low Med High
AADT
100 -52.7 -10.1 -56.6 -10.2 -58 -10.2
250 -8.5 -4.4 -8.9 -4.5 -9 -4.6
500 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.3
1000 13.4 8.4 13.3 8.3 13.2 8.2

Sub-grade
Low Med High
AADT
100 -20.7 -8.3 -21.7 -8.4 -22.1 -8.4
250 -4.9 -2.4 -5.2 -2.5 -5.3 -2.6
500 5.2 3.8 4.9 3.6 4.8 3.5
1000 17.3 11.7 17.1 11.6 17.1 11.5
59

Finding Aadt Thresholds For Upgrading Low Volume Roads in Sri Lanka (Using Hdm-4 Model)

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Finding Aadt Thresholds For Upgrading Low Volume Roads in Sri Lanka (Using Hdm-4 Model)

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FINDING AADT THRESHOLDS FOR UPGRADING

LOW VOLUME ROADS IN SRI LANKA

Yathuru Pattalage Saman Ravindranath Piyasena

Degree of Master of Engineering

Department of Civil Engineering

Yathuru Pattalage Saman Ravindranath Piyasena

Department of Civil Engineering

Also, I hereby grant to University of Moratuwa the non-exclusive right to reproduce

Signature of the supervisor: Date

Keywords: HDM-4, Low volume roads, Pavement upgrading, Road maintenance

I would like to express my sincere gratitude to Dr. W. K. Mampearachchi, for his

The assistance received from staff of Planning Division, Road Development

ACKNOWLEDGEMENT ........................................................................................... III

TABLE OF CONTENTS .............................................................................................IV

LIST OF FIGURES ................................................................................................... VII

LIST OF TABLES .................................................................................................... VIII

ABBREVIATIONS ................................................................................................... XII

CHAPTER 1: INTRODUCTION .................................................................................. 1

1.1. BACKGROUND ..................................................................................................... 1

CHAPTER 2: LITERATURE REVIEW ....................................................................... 4

2.1. CURRENT PRACTICE IN UPGRADING LOW VOLUME ROADS ................................ 4

CHAPTER 3: METHODOLOGY ............................................................................... 23

3.1. GENERAL .......................................................................................................... 23

CHAPTER 4: ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION OF RESULT .................................. 32

4.1. HDM-4 STRATEGY ANALYSIS .......................................................................... 32

CHAPTER 5: CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS ............................... 39

APPENDIX A: VEHICLE FLEET DATA.................................................................. 44

APPENDIX B: ROAD MAINTENANCE AND UPGRADING COSTS .................. 45

APPENDIX C: EIRR FOR UPGRADING ROADS .................................................. 46

Figure 2.1 HDM-4 project lifecycle analysis ................................................................. 5

AADT Annual average daily traffic

Low volume roads’ maintenance and rehabilitation strategies need serious

1.2. Problem Statement

1.3. Research Approach, Scope and Limitations

1.4. Organization of Report

2.1. Current Practice in Upgrading Low Volume Roads

2.2. The HDM-4 Overview

The International Study of Highway Development and Management (ISOHDM) was

The basic structure of HDM-4 can be described as below.

Figure 2.1 HDM-4 project lifecycle analysis

2.3. HDM-4 Input Data Preparation and Configuration

Since HDM-4 will be used in a wide range of environments, HDM Configuration

HDM-4 input data and configuration can be listed as follows:

2.3.1. Road network file

Nodes: Intersections which connect links or other points at which there is a

2.3.2. Vehicle fleet

2.3.3. Road works

2.3.4. Traffic composition and growth rate

2.3.5. Other configuration

2.4. Traffic on Low Volume Roads

Table 2.1 Vehicle composition as a percentage of the AADT (Gayani, 2007)

2.4.1. Annual Average Daily Traffic (AADT)

2.5. Flexible Pavement Design

The basic steps to determining the pavement structure are as follows:

2.5.1. Pavement Layers

2.5.2. Traffic Loading

Determination of Cumulative Equivalent Standard Axles