The Future of Information Management

by R. Todd Stephens, Ph.D

Published: August 1, 2004

Can the future of information management be defined? Is it possible for any of us to say where
information technology will be heading in the next 10 years? The obvious answer is no,
however, I believe that we can paint a image of the future that is vastly different from what we
presently see. This article will take a look at the future of information management by looking at
the past in order to establish a foundation for the future. Then we will review the waves of
information; two of which are already upon us. Finally, we will discuss specific scenarios of the
future and how your job will be impacted in the next few years.

Historical View of Work Itself

Perhaps the best place to discuss the future is to begin in the past at a very high level and then
drill down into specific areas. One topic that has a fair share of reference is the ages of
civilization. These ages simply define how we as a body of humanity work and prosper. Clearly
at some point in time, we survived as hunters and gathers. Eventually, we figured out that as
farmers, we could produce enough food for our family and still have additional products to sell.
The age of agriculture not only brought us food, but also land ownership, communities, concepts
of trade and business, and many other facets of our economy that are still widely used today. In
fact at some point in time, 95% of us were classified as farmers. Today, that number has dropped
to below 2%. The significance of this number is that we could feed the world with only 2% of
our labor resources (Starvation is really a political and logistical problem, not a production
problem). What caused this enormous improvement in productivity? Standardization,
automation, machinery, biological advancements, and economies of scale are some of the
primary reasons. The beginning of the end of the age of agriculture started with the industrial
revolution. We can thank people like James Watt, Henry Ford, Edwards Deming, and Eli
Whitney for taking us off the farm and into the factory. At one point, 75% of us worked on the
factory floor. Today that number sits at around 11.7%. Why? Again, containerization,
automation, information management, and a litany of other reasons account for the increase in
productivity. Thus the age of information arrived with the development of the computer and
information management systems. Today, 60% of us work in the information field and many of
us are wondering about the next age. Take a look at the following chart and you will see these
ages in action starting back in 1860.
There are several points to make about this figure. First, as described in the previous paragraphs,
is an enormous reduction in labor of the industry and agriculture jobs as well as the steady
increase in information jobs. Second, notice that the service jobs remain a constant 20-22% for
the past 150 years. If you assume that information jobs will continue to grow, from which sector
will these jobs be taken from? While agriculture doesn't have much to give and service should
remain steady, this only leaves the industry category. Perhaps we can continue to improve
productivity but only up to a certain point and that's not very likely to provide us much more
than a 5% growth opportunity. Have we reached the tipping point of the information age? Is
there a fifth age that doesn't show up on the radar?

One question that should be popping into your head is the thought that what in the "wide, wide
world of sports" does this have to do with metadata? Everything! Metadata is the foundation of
the information age. Our entire solution framework from an IT perspective is built upon the
concepts of structure. Hence, this is why just about any discussion on grid computing, reuse
strategies, database frameworks, and ITIL include metadata.

Waves of Information

There will be numerous "waves of change" that will occur during our lifetime. From a high level,
a wave of change is simply a collection or clustering of small events that seem to have a common
theme. The microchip is an example where a thousand points of light came together and literally
changed the way we live. The principles of these waves follow a similar pattern or laws, if you
will. First, rarely do we see a single wave. The majority of the time waves of change come as a
series of waves. The first wave may have addressed a multitude of problems, but it also created
new ones. The new problems must be addressed and a subsequent wave is created. While these
waves are created at different points in time, there slope or speed of acceptance is almost always
steeper or faster than the previous wave. Think about the telephone that took over a 100 years to
get into the hands of 90% of the American public. The cell phone has only taken 15 years and the
internet, perhaps less than 10 years. Finally, since the slopes are different, then the waves must
converge as they mature; just as waves converge when they hit the beach. This convergence can
be referred to as the tipping point and major upheavals of our daily life are changed. The web,
personal pc's, and cell phones have had a dramatic impact to our generation, just as the printing
press, telephone, and automobile did in our fore fathers time. Are all convergences a positive
thing? Of course not, take for example the 1988 Yellowstone National Park forest fire that
burned 300,000 acres. Why? Some will say that summer played an important role, the dryness,
the winds, or the fact there were multiple fires at one time. In addition, the park agency had
decided that small fires would be put out immediately. The impact of this policy was that our
forests grew denser which would allow larger fires to spread must faster than normal. What's the
point? Convergence can create both opportunities and disasters, but change none-the-less.

Wave one of the information world was the codification of data, information, and knowledge.
We are about 70% complete with our ability to translate objects, elements, transactions, etc. into
core structures. And look at the success that has been achieved: Operational Data Stores (ODS),
expert systems, online transaction processing applications, business intelligence, and many more.
Our ability to move from classic data processing to information technology has been nothing but
remarkable. However like most waves, as problems were solved others were created. We
realized that we had too much information. While our database and storage specialist talk about
the ability to store a billion ziggy bytes or whatever the next term used beyond a terabyte.
Although we can transmit these ziggy bytes (sorry storage professionals, I like saying the word)
at light speed, we still struggle to get a handle on the content, context, meaning, value, and usage
of the data/information itself. Take for example the internet, 50 billion web pages which grows
an estimated 20% a month. Over 30 million document or pages pass over the communication
lines each and every day; not to mention the 2000 research reports published. Yet, trying finding
anything out on the internet today. In the February, 2004 issue of Information Week, the authors
estimate that RFID tags could generate 7.7 million terabytes of data a day. I have no doubt that
we cannot generate 7.7 terabytes of data per day nor do I believe we will have any issues in
transmitting and storing that kind of data volume. Will we be able to aggregate that much
information into something with business value and more importantly sustain it over a period of
time with a solid data management framework?

The second wave of information was the desire to integrate our systems, data, and information in
order to reduce the complexity and redundancy. Our efforts to solve this problem have produced
a huge collection of technologies like Enterprise Integration Application (EAI), semantic web,
portal technology, search engines, content integration, and on and on. Although we are only 30%
into this wave, the impact cannot be understated nor ignored. The problems of too much
information have not really diminished and with the proliferation of HTML, one can only
wonder how far we can really go with the internet. Now, the most important question: what is the
next wave? That is indeed the million or perhaps trillion dollar question. And, there are many
companies out there willing to bet on the next wave.

Wave of Knowledge?

Now imagine an environment where the codification and integration problems have been solved.
Yes, this is a giant leap perhaps; a world where data quality, discovery, integration, content,
context, work in perfect harmony. This would create a world driven by knowledge. Arguably, we
have done a wonderful job at taking data and creating information. But, we still struggle to take
information and create truly actionable knowledge. This new environment will be driven by
knowledge creation and knowledge integration. Ah, that will never happen says the cynic. There
are a bunch of people that said certain things will never happen:
The Internet? We are not interested in it
- Bill Gates, 1993

They will never try to steal the phonograph because it has no `commercial value.'
- Thomas Edison

This `telephone' has too many shortcomings to be seriously considered as a practical form of
communication. The device is inherently of no value to us.
- Western Union internal memo

There is no reason for any individual to have a computer in their home.

- Kenneth Olsen

The new business models of individual workers and organizations will revolve around your
ability to create and integrate knowledge. This may occur by assembling new core constructs of
information and data. Perhaps these new constructs will holistically change the way we think
about what we know and do. It's hard to imagine a world where 90% of what we do day by day
will be eliminated or automated. But, you can bet the farmer of 1860 said the same thing as did
the factory worker of 1930. We can't imagine that most of our value will be replaced with the
commodization of effort. As you walk around the office, take a look at what everyone is doing. If
your office is like mine then they are managing data and information. Maybe it's a phone call to
get a project status, or updating a spreadsheet with budget information. Now, imagine a day
where that work is obsolete and completely automated.

Death of the Generalist

Are you a generalist or a specialist? Which of these skills will be required in the future? If I were
to ask you that question of me, what would you say? Would you base your answer on my
publications, education, patents, speaking engagements that I do around the world of metadata
and come to the conclusion that I am a specialist; a metadata architect? Or would you review
what I actually do day by day, you would see a different picture. I don't just sit around all day
dreaming of innovating or inventing new methodologies, frameworks, tools, products, etc; I do
what you do every day. My day is complete with budgeting, project planning, documentation,
project integration, project management, presentations; a generalist day to be sure. Which skills
will be needed in the future? Based on the previous paragraph, the generalist is a dying breed;
those functions will be all but eliminated. Yikes!!!!!!

The death of the generalist will open the door for a high performance worker and specialist. The
workers of tomorrow will have a collection of attributes that should be reviewed in detail. First,
this person is a subject matter expert is some field where they are the best in the field. What does
best in the field mean? Today, you can be the best in your department in some skill, be it
presentations, writing, metadata, java, quality assurance, or just about any skill on the books. We
get away with this due to the organizational walls we build to keep more experienced and
knowledgeable resources at bay. This isn't anything new; we have used the organizational walls
to our benefit for 100's of years. But, those days are numbered. Suppose for the moment you
consider me as one of the top five people in the world of metadata; that sounds great. The bad
news is that numbers one through four are only five tenths of a second away from the
organization. Of course, price and availability will still play a role in our new economy but they
will only soften the blow. The new high performance worker is a knowledge creator, integrator,
utilizes online collaboration to the fullest, uses intellect and available intellectual assets to create
and/or enhance products, services, and processes, requires a high level of autonomy and
flexibility; an associate, not a subordinate. These characteristics will establish the foundation for
the next wave or age. The age of knowledge is upon us and most of us are not prepared.
However, where will all these experts come from? They will be you and me of course. We
walked off the farm, we walked out of the factory, and we will soon wave goodbye to the cubical
and the hierarchal structures that it represents.

What can you do now?

What can you do now? First, realize that nothing turns on a dime. This transformation into a
knowledge based business model will take time; perhaps 10 to 20 years. What role will metadata
play in this new environment? No one can truly say, but I can imagine a whole new focus on
metadata in the future that will literally change the way we view the grand discipline. As an
individual, I would hope that your entrepreneurship behavior will continue and you will be able
to state in a few sentences how you add value to the organization. Not only how you add value,
but how your project, trade, and skills create an environment for success. Does all of this free
agency talk seem far-fetched for you? Daniel Pink describes a new world where your skills will
be your market force. In fact, 27 million of us are working as small business owners and
contractor type services. That's around 20% of the work force and growing. Constant education
is critical in this new world. One question I ask my team every six months is to describe for me
what has changed on your resume or CV in the last six months. If the only thing you can change
is the end date of your current job then your in trouble. As Tom Peters puts it; "If the other guy is
getting better faster than you're getting better, then you're getting worse.". Ouch!!!

Globalization will continue at a much higher pace than we have ever seen. For most of my
father's generation, globalization meant moving production overseas. For me, the initial concepts
were the possibility of selling our products to the vast majority of the worlds population located
in India, China, Russia, etc. But my biggest mistake was not seeing the change in the world
economy, education system, and reduction of barriers to commerce. America not longer has a
God given right to be the world economic super power. We earned that right by being a free
nation, governed by an economic friendly structure, hard work, and an entrepreneur spirit. But
this isn't the industrial revolution environment and many of our positives have turned negative.
We now rank 18th on the top 25 countries in education and Georgia ranks dead last. Our public
debt is somewhere in the neighborhood of $7,133,629,790,637.80. Mistake number one for me
and oh what an enormous mistake it was. America no longer holds the rights to labor,
innovation, or capital. We all must define ourselves and our work as a "unique value proposition"
in order to survive in the future.

Final Word for Metadata

Ok, let's bring this conversation to an end by discussing the impact that metadata will have on
this new world beyond the obvious. Metadata's role in wave one is clear, crucial, and perhaps
greatly under appreciated. In fact, by itself metadata transformed data into information and
enabled the codification process. Wave two, integration will occur when we are able to collect
complete, accurate, and contextual metadata information. The answer here lies in the belief that
knowledge itself will consist of a temporal assemble that only lasts for a limited period of time.
Metadata's role will continue to expand on the desktop for security and records information
management, within our data warehouse projects, and the enterprise. Change is coming, are you
ready?

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R. Todd Stephens, Ph.D -

Todd Stephens is the Director of the Metadata Services Group for the BellSouth Corporation, an
Atlanta-based telecommunications organization serving over 44 million customers in 20
countries. Todd has served as the director since 1999 and is responsible for setting the corporate
strategy and architecture for the development and implementation of the Enterprise Metadata
Repositories, which include metadata, data transformation, component, XML, content,
documentation, UDDI, messaging, metrics, interfaces, and the Enterprise Information Portal
using XML technologies. For the past 20 years, Todd has worked in the Information Technology
field including leadership positions at BellSouth, Coca-Cola, Georgia-Pacific and Cingular
Wireless.

Todd writes a monthly online column in Data Management Review and has delivered keynotes,
tutorials and educational sessions for a wide variety of technology conferences. Todd holds
degrees received in 1986 in Mathematics and Computer Science from Columbus State
University, and he earned an MBA degree from Georgia State University in Atlanta, GA., in
1990. Currently, Todd recently completed his Ph.D. in Information Systems at Nova
Southeastern University. The majority of his research is focused on metadata reuse, semantic
zooming, enabling trust within the Internet, usability and repository frameworks. On this, he has
been awarded seven U.S. pending patents in the field of Metadata. Todd is a member of IEEE,
ACM, DC-Corporate, Upsilon Pi Epsilon, and DAMA International.