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A Universal Law of Procrastination
A Universal Law of Procrastination
windows of greater than 60 days with tion—much less the quantum mechanics logic and observations, of why anyone
submissions from more than 1000 pro- of molecular opacity or computer should believe the consensus state-
posers annually, I have found that the codes—made predictions of climate sen- ments” about climate change impacts.
data adhere to a modified hyperbolic sitivity that are within a factor of two or Those photographs perhaps make it
function, as plotted in the figure. The three of modern estimates. Was that a more pleasing visually to leaf through a
model is simple, which means it omits lucky guess, or is the phenomenon so ro- publication, but their inclusion only per-
factors such as delays introduced by the bust that even the crudest estimates are petuates the myth that individual storms
universities’ sponsored research offices. almost as good as the most sophisticated? are the result of climate change. For ex-
Nevertheless, the procrastination behav- Weart describes, but does not explain, ample, the vast majority of the flooding
ior is predicted quite well, and without how the consensus about the effects of shown in the Hurricane Sandy photo
any fitting parameters. climate change has shifted from equa- was due to the storm surge that typically
As is shown in the figure, the ULP nimity to fear and trembling that a great accompanies hurricanes. The track of
curve provides a simple means of pre- disaster will ensue. Is climate change a Hurricane Sandy was an outlier in the
dicting the impact of proposal pressure phenomenon to be observed, like the data set. The unusual flooding can be ex-
and of estimating the number of propos- weather? Is it of direct concern mostly to plained entirely by storm dynamics over
als expected as a function of remaining farmers? Or is it a problem to be solved, the ocean. A sea-level rise of several
time to deadline. Practical concerns for a and if so, how urgently? The shift is a so- inches due to ice melt would not by itself
receiving institution include how to han- ciological phenomenon that calls for ex- cause 20- to 25-foot storm surges.
dle the number of proposals received on planation, but not by physicists. John T. Curran
the deadline date and whether that load The physical principles have long (jtcurran41@gmail.com)
will overtax or crash the existing com- been known, and François Massonnet’s Carmel, Indiana
puter infrastructure. Commentary in the same issue (page 8)
Bear in mind, though, that hyperbolic explains that even our present under- ‣ Weart replies: Jonathan Katz worries
functions diverge to infinity at the as- standing and computational capabilities about the validity of computer studies of
are not sufficient to predict regional ef- projected impacts of climate change.
ymptote. To procrastinating submitters,
fects such as droughts and floods. The And John Curran notes that illustrations
the most critical issue is that by waiting
fact that multiphysics codes—which to my article show particular events,
until the deadline or close to it, they elim-
combine multiple models to simulate which computer studies indeed have dif-
inate the time needed for identifying and
complex phenomena—could not predict ficulty attributing individually to climate
correcting errors that could make their
the failure of National Ignition Facility change. I apologize if any reader jumped
proposal ineligible for consideration.
targets should make us skeptical of their to the conclusion that a specific attribu-
power to predict any complex phenom- tion was intended. I wanted only to illus-
I appreciate helpful discussions with Andy
enon, and climate is more complicated trate the subject of the article—namely,
Lovinger at NSF and the encouragement of
than a laser target. impacts in general. Still, part of the sea-
Cornelius König of Saarland University. Any
Jonathan Katz level rise of the past century is reliably
opinions expressed in this material are mine
(katz@wuphys.wustl.edu) attributed to global warming, and the
and do not necessarily reflect the views of NSF.
Washington University in St. Louis rise did extend the area of Sandy’s inun-
St. Louis, Missouri dation. And a peer-reviewed study has
Reference reported that global warming did con-
1. C. J. König, M. Kleinmann, J. Psychol. 139,
33 (2005). tribute to the Texas drought that was
aving formerly worked for the Na- illustrated.
Tomasz Durakiewicz
(tomasz@lanl.gov)
National Science Foundation
Arlington, Virginia
H tional Weather Service for 40 years,
including assignments at the Na-
tional Severe Storms Forecast Center and
For reasons of length I had to leave
out the interesting story of attribution
studies of particular impacts; for a
various field forecast offices, I was struck sketch and references see http://www
by the images in Spencer Weart’s article .aip.org/history/climate/impacts.htm.
S
The cover photo shows flooding of pansion of water and the visible decay of
pacts (PHYSICS TODAY, September small fields lined with palms and other ice sheets that support expectations of
2015, page 46) describes the sociology tropical fauna. Other photos show further sea-level rise if greenhouse gas
of how opinion has evolved on anthro- drought and floodwaters extending emissions continue. Other serious im-
pogenic change, but it says little about halfway up storefront shops. pacts have already been observed in
the opinion’s scientific content. It is re- The inference, I suppose, is that climate weather statistics, including global in-
markable that the scientific giant in this change caused those weather disasters, tensification of heat waves and of ex-
field, Svante Arrhenius (1859–1927), despite the author’s stating he was unable treme precipitation events.
without knowledge of the Planck func- “to present a convincing case, based on Finally, Curran misunderstands a
12 PHYSICS TODAY | FEBRUARY 2016