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Influence of Supply Chain Management & Logistics in the Wake of China

Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) on Domestic Industry in Pakistan

Chapter · April 2020

DOI: 10.1007/978-3-030-44783-0_17

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 Influence of Supply Chain Management
& Logistics in the Wake of China Pakistan
Economic Corridor (CPEC) on Domestic
Industry in Pakistan

Ayesha Khan(&), Sayed Mehdi Shah, Hans-Dietrich Haasis,

and Michael Freitag

University of Bremen, Bremen, Germany

ayesha@uni-bremen.de

Abstract. China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) is one of the six corri-
dors of China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and it consists of several
infrastructural, logistics, energy, transportation and port related projects. This
paper relies on survey data from 270 respondents working in different industries
in Pakistan. Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) is applied to analyze the
pertaining hypotheses. First, a measurement model is conducted by Confirma-
tory Factor Analysis (CFA) and then a structural model is estimated to test the
hypotheses and model fit. The results show that despite the popular belief that
Pakistan’s domestic industry will expand with progress in projects of CPEC,
there is also a valid concern that the CPEC might present more opportunities to
China than to Pakistan, especially in terms of employment opportunities. The
government of Pakistan needs to consolidate this concern in future policy
designs and also work on some external factors such as poor governance and
corruption.

Keywords: China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC)
Structural Equation

Modelling (SEM)
Logistics
Supply chain management

1 Introduction

Pakistan is a developing country and the manufacturing industries in emerging coun-

tries are involved in the earlier phases of global supply chains. Therefore, they are often
producing raw materials or doing basic assembling of goods which are further treated
for value addition. However, Pakistan is not utilizing the full potential of its domestic
industry due to many factors like severe energy crisis, lack of direct foreign investment
due to security concerns, unskilled labor, poor infrastructure, inefficient transport
system, and outdated technologies [1, 16]. On the other hand, Pakistan is located in a
region that is strategically very important for global trade. It provides the shortest route
from China to Middle East and Europe. As a result, despite its poor infrastructure and
challenges, this strategic advantage alone makes Pakistan a marketplace packed with
enormous opportunities.

© The Editor(s) (if applicable) and The Author(s), under exclusive license
to Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2020
M. Freitag et al. (Eds.): LDIC 2020, LNLO, pp. 175–185, 2020.
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-44783-0_17
176 A. Khan et al.

In contrast to Pakistan’s poor infrastructure, the neighboring China’s Supply Chain

and Logistics setup are much more advanced and efficient. According to global
innovation index 2019, developed by world intellectual property organization, Pakistan
ranks 105th among 129 countries, whereas China ranks 14th [25]. According to the
survey conducted by BVL international in 2013, the Chinese government has made
great developments in improving logistics infrastructure in their country. Apart from
the railway, the logistics industry is one of the most subsidized industries in China [18].
Chinese products compete largely on the price, however, there is an increasing focus on
the significance of logistics in these markets [18]. From 2006 to 2010, the logistics
industry was viewed as one of the most important supporting pillars for the growth of
the economy. E-commerce is growing exponentially in China. The “one-child policy”
has given the advantage for more educational opportunities as the youth are less willing
to work under a tough working atmosphere. The new Chinese factory environments are
moving towards more labor-saving automation and workers are given training, learn-
ing, and advancement opportunities [18]. In addition to these internal policies, China
has built strong economic relations with Pakistan and both the countries have recently
emerged as the most important trading partners in South Asia [1].
The current trade route from China to Europe and Middle Eastern countries is
expensive, risky and long as China’s current maritime trade network goes via Strait of
Malacca, it is one of the busiest shipping routes and chokepoint. It connects Pacific and
Indian Oceans with Middle East and Africa [3]. For that reason, taking advantage of
Pakistan’s strategic position, China has signed an agreement in 2015 that has attracted
the focus of the entire world. This agreement is known as China Pakistan Economic
Corridor (CPEC) and comprises several projects such as the construction of a deep
seaport, a vast network of roads, railways linkages and power plants in Pakistan. This
trade agreement between China and Pakistan is opening ways to smoothen bilateral and
multilateral international trade. The corridor will cover around 3000 km from Kashgar
(China) to Gwadar (Pakistan). While connecting South and East Asia, the CPEC corridor
will also connect Afghanistan, Iran, and India through land routes. This connectivity will
be further expanded to Central Asia and the Middle East through the Gwadar deep
seaport [11]. Furthermore, China will invest around 62 billion USD in different projects
of CPEC. So far till 2019, China has invested around 19 billion USD, 5.9 billion USD is
in the form of loans at the interest rate of 2% payable after 2021 [10, 13].
Chinese companies with cooperation of their government are performing better in
the global supply chain management [6]. With the CPEC agreement, it is therefore
important to understand, how the Chinese Supply Chain Management & Logistics
practice will influence the Domestic Industry in Pakistan. To address the question
outlined above, the interest areas of the Chinese Government where they are investing
were considered in this study. The previous studies suggest that local industry, logistics
& supply chain, employment & labor, innovation & technology, international trade,
foreign direct investment, and sustainability are the most important areas to be
addressed under the umbrella of CPEC project [1, 9, 13, 16]. To the best of authors’
knowledge, no previous study has been conducted to investigate the impact of all these
variables on local industry in Pakistan. Moreover, there are several other factors such as
innovation and technological up-gradation and sustainability that would impact the
 Influence of Supply Chain Management & Logistics 177

local industrial development indirectly. Considering all these factors, five hypotheses
are developed. This research examines a relatively new research question which has
been emerged after CPEC.
The aim is to know the influence of China’s advances in logistics and supply chain
management practices on the domestic industry of Pakistan in the wake of the CPEC
through a survey study. With this aim in mind, we applied Structural Equation
Modeling (SEM) on the survey data which was collected from persons working in
different industries in Pakistan. The analysis was conducted by Confirmatory Factor
Analysis (CFA) and then a structural model is estimated to test the hypotheses and
model fit.

2 Model Development

CPEC and its effects on the domestic market in Pakistan can be studied through
analyzing several variables such as its impact on Logistics & Supply Chain,
Employment & Labor, Innovation & Technology, International Trade, Foreign Direct
Investment, and Sustainability. These variables collectively represent CPEC in terms of
the domestic market as CPEC will affect these sectors through different infrastructural
projects. These variables are perceived in post-CPEC or after the CPEC scenario and it
is shown in Fig. 1.

Fig. 1. CPEC and linked economic factors. Source: Authors’ illustration

The conceptual model of this paper is illustrated in Fig. 2. Local industry denoted
by (A) can be affected by Logistics & supply chain (B), employment & labor market
(C), international trade (E) and FDI (F). The resultant Local industry will affect
Innovation and Technology (D) which in turn will affect sustainability (G) in Pakistan.
Moreover, another possible relation exists i.e. improved logistics & supply chain and
international trade will attract more FDI. These possible five relationship paths are the
five hypotheses that are tested in the next section.
178 A. Khan et al.

Hypothesis 1: Logistics & SC, employment & labor market, international trade, and
foreign investment have a significant impact on the local industry.
Hypothesis 2: Local industry has a significant impact on Innovation and techno-
logical up-gradation.
Hypothesis 3: International Trade and Logistics & SC have a significant impact on
foreign investment.
Hypothesis 4: Innovation & technological up-gradation and foreign investment
have a significant impact on the Employment & labor force.
Hypothesis 5: Innovation & technological up-gradation has a significant impact on
sustainability.

Fig. 2. Conceptual model. Source: Authors’ illustration

Since the variables involved in this paper are qualitative in nature, therefore, it is
imperative to use a statistical technique that helps in the measurement of those qual-
itative variables such as structural equation modeling (SEM).

3 Research Methodology

Structural equation modeling (SEM) is a statistical technique that is used to estimate the
complex relationship between a set of latent and manifest variables. Latent variables
are variables that cannot be directly measured, in other words, they are not quantifiable.
On the other hand, manifest, factor or observed variables can take numerical values [5].
In this paper, we use the following four steps to present the estimated SEM results
(Fig. 3).
 Influence of Supply Chain Management & Logistics 179

Fig. 3. Four steps of SEM. Source: Authors’ illustration

3.1 Data and Sampling Technique

Since the concepts used in this paper are conceptual in nature, they are latent variables.
We used a questionnaire to define these concepts and then the responses from the
questionnaire are scaled. A questionnaire consisting of 53 questions was sent to people
working in different industries in Pakistan via Google Form. Targeted industries
include textile, Oil & Petroleum, Consumer Goods and IT. The main questions (except
demographic/warm-up questions) are measured on a 5 scale Likert scale ranging from
strongly agree to strongly disagree where 1 = strongly disagree and 5 = strongly agree
[23]. A targeted convenience sampling technique was used and 270 responses were
collected [17]. A limitation of using non-probability sampling like convenience sam-
pling is non-response bias which could be avoided if random sampling is used.
However, due to limited access to industries’ employment records online, we opted for
convenience sampling. 87% of the respondents are male and 46.97% and 12.50% work
in textile and IT respectively. 45.83%, 22.73% and 17.42% work on managerial,
marketing and R&D positions respectively.

3.2 Reliability of Model

In primary research analysis, the reliability and validity of the survey are required.
Reliability postulates that the scale always measures the same value under the same
conditions. For example, if the questionnaire is again distributed among the same
people, they will choose the same value as they did previously. Otherwise, we can say
that either the respondent did not understand the question or did not read it carefully.
On the other hand, validity is used to check the accuracy of measurement of what we
actually wanted to measure. The questions should not be confusing, one concept should
not be confused with the other one in the questionnaire. If that happens, we can say that
the used scale is not valid for this sample [4]. For this purpose, Cronbach’s alpha test is
conducted after eliminating all the items with factor loading less than 0.50 because
internal consistency calculated from Cronbach’s alpha, depends on the values of factor
loadings of each item [12]. Reliability test using semTools package in R. The resultant
model is shown is the figure with corresponding factor loadings. And Table 1 shows
the results of the reliability test.
180 A. Khan et al.

Table 1. Reliability of measurement model.

Variables Cronbach’s Alpha
Local Industry (A) 0.772
Logistics & SC (B) 0.806
Employment & Labor Force (C) 0.694
Innovation & Technology (D) 0.827
International Trade (E) 0.825
Foreign Investment (F) 0.831
Sustainability (G) 0.728
Total 0.930
Source: Authors’ calculations

According to the literature [22], the acceptable value of Cronbach’s Alpha is 0.70,
and it can be seen that all variables have Cronbach’s alpha more than 0.70 except for
the third construct i.e., employment and labor force but the difference is negligible as
the value is 0.694. Moreover, the overall reliability of the measurement model is 0.930
that is quite good.

3.3 Confirmatory Factor Analysis (CFA)

A SEM is estimated in two steps. First, a measurement model is estimated. It consists of
a relationship between latent and observed variables, or how well the latent variables are
explained by the observed variables. It is also known as confirmatory factor analysis
(CFA) [15]. In other words, it confirms or validates the construct of the measurement
model. In the second stage, a structural or regression model is estimated [4].
In this paper, there are seven latent variables which are manifested by several
factors. Depending on the obtained factor loadings and considering the rule of thumb
that factor loading should be greater than 0.50, the measurement model depicted in
Fig. 4 is used. Confirmatory Factor Analysis (CFA) is conducted using the lavaan
package in R.
The model shows that seven latent variables in the context of CPEC are assigned
short codes i.e., A, B, C, D, E, F and G and they represent the development of local
industry, logistics, and supply chain, employment and labor conditions, innovation and
technological up-gradation, foreign investment, sustainability respectively. These seven
constructs are qualitative or latent variables, therefore, they are measured or observed
through some factors. Each factor is a result of one question in the questionnaire. For
example, the development of the local industry (A) is manifested by four items/factors
and International trade (E) is manifested by seven items. Initially, A was manifested by
seven items and E was manifested by 10 items but after eliminating the items with
loadings less than 0.50 we get the model as in Fig. 4. A possible justification for
avoiding factors with low factor loading is that they postulate the low reliability of
observes variables [24]. All factor loadings are greater than 0.50 except for item g2
with loading = 0.359, however, we need at least three items for a latent variable, but in
some cases two items are acceptable. Therefore, we run the model with two items
 Influence of Supply Chain Management & Logistics 181

because the factors loadings for the two were even less than 0.2. Now that we have
estimated CFA with acceptable factors loading for each construct, we can move to the
next step, which is the estimation of the structural equation model (SEM).

d1 d2 d3 d4 d5 g1 g2
0.556 0.792 0.778 0.798 0.593 1.612 0.359

Sustainability
Inn & Tech (G)
(D)

a1
a3
0.590
0.624

a4
0.635 b1
b2
c6

a5
0.677
c5 b3
0.638 0.652
a6
0.662
Local Industry
0.611 0.689 b4
c2 (A)
0.590
c1 0.619
0.639
b5
Emp & Lab Log & SC
0.612
(C) (B) 0.664 b6
0.538
b7
e1 0.644
e2 0.696 Int Trade
e3 0.715 (E)

e4 0.694
0.584
e5 0.523
e6 0.583

e10
FDI
(F)

0.698
0.874 .0.822

f1 f2 f3

Fig. 4. Measurement model and CFA. Source: Authors’ calculations

3.4 Estimation of SEM

In this section we estimate the structural model using sem syntax from lavaan package
in R. In other words, we estimate the regression results for the research hypotheses
mentioned in Sect. 2. SEM estimates are obtained using the technique of maximum
likelihood.
182 A. Khan et al.

The same results are shown in Table 2. All variables are significant except for
foreign investment in hypothesis 1 and logistics & supply chain management in
hypothesis 3.

Table 2. Structural model regression estimates.

Estimate Standard error z-value P(> |z|) Standard
estimates
Local Industry (A)
Logistics & SC (B) 0.941 0.231 4.070 0.000 0.753***
Employment & Labour Force (C) −1.517 0.813 −1.866 0.062 −0.705*
International Trade (E) 1.124 0.333 3.376 0.001 0.925***
Foreign Investment (F) −0.013 0.203 −0.062 0.951 −0.015
Innovation & Tech Upgradation (D)
Local Industry (A) 0.510 0.091 5.626 0.000 0.929***
Foreign Investment (F)
International Trade (E) 1.207 0.206 5.859 0.000 0.853***
Logistics & Supply Chain (B) −0.088 0.151 −0.581 0.561 −0.060
Employment & Labour Force (C)
Innovation & Tech Upgradation (D) 0.636 0.172 3.704 0.000 0.751***
Foreign Investment (F) 0.153 0.062 2.484 0.013 0.383**
Sustainability (G)
Innovation & Tech Upgradation (D) 0.554 0.213 2.605 0.009 0.108**
Source: Authors’ estimates
Note: *, **, *** significant at 10%, 5% and 1% respectively

3.5 Model Fit

Just like any statistical model, a structural equation model also needs the goodness of fit
measures to see how well the designed model fits. There are several methods to
measure the goodness of fit [2]. For example, chi-square to df ratio, some comparative
indices like CFI, TLI, NFI, AGFI [7] and some obsolete indices like RMSEA [4, 8, 14,
19]. Table 3 shows the values of these indices for the model estimated in this paper.

Table 3. Goodness of fit indices.

Goodness of fit index Estimate Rule of thumb
CFI 0.925 > 0.90
TLI 0.913 > 0.90
AGFI 0.974 > 0.95
RMSEA 0.046 < 0.06
SRMR 0.057 < 0.08
Source: Authors calculations
 Influence of Supply Chain Management & Logistics 183

Comparative fit index (CFI) value is 0.925 > 0.90, Tucker-Lewis index (TLI) is
0.913 > 0.90, Adjusted Goodness-of-fit Index (AGFI) is 0.974 > 0.95, and Standard-
ized Root Mean Square Residual (SRMR) is 0.057 < 0.08. The rule of thumb values
are taken from literature [4, 8, 14, 19–22].

4 Results and Discussion

The SEM results from the previous section show that local industrial development has a
positive and significant relationship with logistics and supply chain management,
whereas employment and labor market conditions have a negative and significant
impact on the local industry. Interestingly, although labor market conditions have a
significant impact on the local industry, the results show that the direction of the
relation is negative, therefore, the common fear among the local population that the
Chinese workforce will take over the market is reflected in the results. Foreign
investment from other countries depicted a negative relationship with local industrial
development but it is insignificant. People think that other countries may not be that
interested in investing in Pakistan.
Once there is a boost in the productivity of the local industry due to CPEC, it will
promote innovative behavior and technological up-gradation. It could be due to col-
laboration with already innovative Chinese industries via knowledge transfer. More-
over, the inflow of foreign investment will increase when there is an increase in the
volume of international trade; the relationship is positive and significant. But the
improvement in logistics & supply chain management due to infrastructural projects
would not be a significant factor in attracting foreign investment from other countries.
Other internal conditions, such as poor governance, corruption, and law and order
could be the important factors for those countries.
When the local industry will start working on technological up-gradation and there
will be inflow of foreign investment, it will generate employment opportunities for
locals because by this time, not only the CPEC related industries but other sectors and
industries will also be active in contributing towards economic activity in the country.
And people will feel more optimistic about these employment opportunities. Lastly, it
is unwise to think of technological up-gradation without incorporating sustainability
into it. So, it will have a positive and significant role in promoting sustainable business
opportunities in Pakistan.
It can be seen that the development of the local industry depends positively on the
conditions of logistics and supply chain and international trade but it has a negative
relationship with employment and foreign investment. Moreover, foreign investment is
insignificant. That is probably justified because people have concerns that although
CPEC will improve the local industry however the Chinese workers will take over the
labor market. In turn, the local industry will have a positive and significant impact on
technological up-gradation which in turn will positively impact sustainability. Inter-
national trade has a positive influence on foreign investment but the conditions of
logistics and supply chain are insignificant to attract any foreign investment.
Employment conditions in the labor market are influenced positively and significantly
184 A. Khan et al.

by innovations and foreign investment. Regression results are also presented in

Table 2. However, this paper presents some limitations such as limited available lit-
erature on the topic and only workers from the Pakistani industries were included
during the survey, in future Chinese industrial employees could also be included in this
kind of study.

5 Conclusion

CPEC as a flagship project of the Belt and Road initiative of China is considered very
crucial for regional logistics and supply chain management. But the main concern of
this study is to examine its influence on the domestic industry in Pakistan. For this
purpose, SEM is used, results show that developments in the logistics sector, labor
market, and international trade have a significant role to play in the expansion of the
local industry. Pakistan’s government needs to ensure the labor security of locals and
execute planned projects in such a way that the local community is involved in it. The
process of development in the local industry will affect the innovation and techno-
logical status of Pakistan which will result in adopting more sustainable business
practices. The results of this study can help the government of Pakistan in designing
future policies pertaining to CPEC. It needs to work on governance issues such as
corruption and red tape in order to attract foreign investment from other countries
which will boost industrial capacity outside the CPEC-related industries and it will
create employment opportunities for the locals. The government needs to take locals as
well as foreign investors into confidence by disclosing the terms and conditions of the
official agreement of CPEC. Moreover, from a future perspective, it is crucial to adopt
sustainable innovation techniques. In addition to that, it can also help the managers and
industrialists in planning their future business strategies in the wake of CPEC.

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