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Realistic Trading & Investing Technical Analysis With Chart Examples
Realistic Trading & Investing Technical Analysis With Chart Examples
Technical Analysis
With Chart Examples
Understand Core Concepts; Price Action,
Volume,
Support, Resistance, & Trends
By Simon Milgard
Disclaimer
All examples and explanations are strictly for demonstrative purposes only.
They are not recommendations to buy or sell certain securities. Please do the
appropriate research and consult a certified financial professional if necessary
before you trade and invest. Some methods discussed in the book may not be
suitable for everybody depending on individual ability and/or risk tolerance.
Copyright © 2020
Table Of Contents
Introduction
Defining Technical Analysis
Advantages And Limitations Of Technical Analysis
Price Action
Volume
Swing Points
Identifying Accurate Support And Resistance
Trend lines
Channels
Summary Conclusion And Final Tips
Introduction
A wide variety of technical analysis techniques exist but regardless of which
one(s) you choose to apply to your trading and investing it is important to
understand the core ideas behind technical analysis, in order to understand
the strengths and limitations of this approach. With the use of detailed
discussion and real chart examples we can better understand how simple yet
effective concepts can be applied towards analyzing a wide range of charts
under various dynamic market conditions.
Whether you are a complete beginner or an experienced trader and investor,
these discussions and case studies will be of use in further developing and
refining essential elements and skills needed to effectively analyze charts.
The solid foundation on; price action, volume, swing points,
support/resistance, trend lines, gained here can be applied to chart patterns,
and more advanced techniques with greater effectiveness.
For more on trading, charting, and the markets visit my website at
www.ascencore.com/
Universal Applicability
Technical analysis is very popular because the concepts can be applied to all
markets and time frames. Thus regardless of what the trade or investment is,
or when it is taking place, some degree of technical analysis can be applied.
As long as there is a price chart that provides adequate data to construct
appropriate context of past market action, current developments, and likely
influences in the future. The key words here are some degree of technical
analysis, because the amount of technical analysis that can be effectively
applied varies depending on how price has developed on the chart. For
example a simple trend line can be drawn quite easily as long as there are at
least two clear sloping swing points to reference. However if the market has
been in a prolonged flat and neutral range, it may not be possible for a trend
line to be plotted with any great reliability. Certain financial markets and
instruments will tend to have distinct characteristics that can result in certain
technical analysis methods being more suitable than others. For instance
volatile biotechnology stocks will behave in sharp contrast to stocks of
companies in the consumer staples sector and major commodities like gold
and oil. So while it is true technical analysis as a broad approach is applicable
across markets, time periods, and time frames, the specific combinations of
technical analysis methods can vary greatly depending on what kind of chart
it is.
Remember Probability
As we shall soon see with plenty of chart examples, charting is essentially
determining the most probable outcomes of price movement based on which
price ranges and time periods are likely to exert the strongest influence. Once
again technical analysis realistically determines probable future price
movement. Expecting charting analysis to be a magic solution to see the
exact future is absurd, but many traders and investors fall into this mindset
which leads to the aforementioned problems and bad reputation of this
analytic approach.
Additionally it is important to note that often times analysis is correct and
commonly the best course of action is to do nothing at all. Staying out of the
market and not buying or selling the majority of the time makes sense
because realistically suitable conditions don’t always exist for traders and
investors. Commonly losses or lessened profits result from impatient traders
and investors jumping in or out of the market even though they have done the
correct analysis telling them that the conditions are not suitable yet for higher
profits and lower loss potential.
Price Action
Price action forms the core foundation of technical analysis. It provides
context of what has happened to the price of a chart, which in turn allows for
better understanding of current developments of changing market prices.
Thereby allowing for the present and past context to reveal a framework of
the most likely price ranges and time periods that will influence future price
movement on the chart.
It is a very simple concept to begin with, because at the most basic level it
refers to an increase or decrease in price. However what makes it appear
much more complex at this basic level are the wide range of synonyms used
to describe the two basic up and down movements in market prices. From a
linguistic standpoint a lot of the synonyms used for “up” and “down” price
movement do have slight variations in meaning. However in the domain of
technical analysis it is just a case of using lots of different words to
essentially describe the meaning for the two basic words “up” and “down.”
The following diagrams may seem insultingly redundant, but highlight how
the simple concepts of price action can be complicated by lots of jargon and
synonyms.
There are plenty more variations of describing price action however the
following diagrams present the ones among the most frequently used.
When price on a chart is little changed over a certain time span, it can be said
the market is moving sideways on the chart. The up(buyers buying) and
down(sellers selling) forces are essentially equal during such a time. As well
a quick note about nomenclature for trading and investing. It is often said
“bearish” refers to decreasing price because bears attack with their claws
striking down. While “bullish” refers to increasing price because bulls charge
with their horns facing up.
Below are some of the most common synonym terms used to describe drastic
movements in price either up or down. Once again they all describe a rapid
and/or significant change in price using words that have essentially the same
meaning in the domain of charting.
There are no agreed upon angles for “normal, steady, stable” price
movements in up and down trends. It is actually not necessary or productive
to say such and such exact angles are “stable,” “strong,” or “unstable.” Each
chart has it’s own unique “norm” depending on such things as the type of
financial instrument it is and the market conditions. Though generally as you
can see on the last two diagrams it is generally more stable for price to move
at or below a 45 degree angle. This is of course for both up and down trends.
Once price begins moving rapidly and surpassing the 45 degree range it does
not necessarily mean price will definitely reverse or the market is unstable.
Though after the 45 degree range is when such developments can begin to
run the risk of a large reversal if price does not make smaller stabilizing
“pullbacks” or “retracements” which are essentially just technical analysis
terms that mean minor reversals that help to stabilize a trend. Think of
retracements and pullbacks as relieving the pressure in a controlled way
instead of a large burst or explosion which occurs when the “selling pressure”
in the case of a down trend, and “buying pressure” in the case of an up trend
accumulate to an explosive and unsustainable level. Eventually leading to the
end of the established trend in the form of a large reversal or break out of the
established trend.
“Healthy” or “stable” trends are not determined by the steepness of angles
but how long the increase of the angle lasts for. Markets are never completely
linear and will steepen and flatten out periodically according to market
conditions. Be aware of the general steepness of tends but don’t get caught up
in trying to measure the exact angle of every decline or incline on a chart.
Think of the 45 degree range as a rule of thumb and not a hard set rule since
other factors forming the context of price movement also influence what is
considered “normal stable” price movement at any particular time span and
price range on a chart.
Also when price action is sideways or at a very shallow and low angle well
below 45 degrees such as seen in the next diagram. It is often a sign the
market is “resting” in the build up to a large move to break out of the
sideways range or shallow angle. Just like the extreme of a sharp angle well
above 45 degrees a low or flat period of price movement can also eventually
result in a large price shift either in the form of a reversal or continuation of a
longer term established trend. The longer price remains at one extreme on the
chart the more likely it is to make a significant shift. This is true for
prolonged sharp up and down trends, as well as prolonged sideways or low
angle ranges that extend for a long period of time.
Lastly there is the unstable or volatile category of price action which is
sometimes colloquially called whip sawing price action, likely this term
originated because the rapid shifts in price resemble a whipping motion and
the teeth of a saw. The main characteristics are large and rapid changes in
price. Volatility can occur in a downtrend, side ways or shallow angled range,
and in up trends. However usually this category of price action is most
commonly associated with very uncertain and/or bearish markets that are
sideways to bearish in their movements.
Volume
In addition to price action the other primary foundation of technical analysis
is volume. It too is a relatively straightforward concept to begin with, but it is
often not understood to the fullest extent. The lack of understanding can
largely be attributed to the slightly more abstract nature of volume in
comparison to the basic directional premise of price action. Though fear not
because there will be a series of unique diagrams that will enrich your
understanding of volume. So whether you are a complete beginner or an
experienced trader and investor you will further advance your knowledge of
volume.
Then before beginning with the diagrams it is helpful to note that it has been
traditionally easier to analyze volume in markets that can reliably and
accurately publish the volume. This means that the stock market and
cryptocurrency markets are most suitable. Forex, Commodity futures, bonds,
and other markets aren’t as reliable in terms of the seamless reporting of
trading volume made available to the public. In fact in most cases markets
like these won’t display volume at all on most all charting platforms. Stocks
and cryptocurrencies can be easily and readily tracked in terms of the number
of shares bought and sold in the stock market and the quantity of any
particular cryptocurrency traded. Other markets are naturally more difficult to
track in terms of the volume. For example the Forex market will have
difficulty keeping track of currencies being exchanged all over the world,
especially when trying to seamlessly report cash exchanges, and exchange of
currencies in less connected and transparent parts of the world.
The stock market by contrast has set hours and is open for defined
geographical regions and every share bought and sold is easily and
seamlessly tracked. It is similar for cryptocurrencies even though this market
is less fixed in terms of its operating hours and no set geographical region.
The inherent digital ledger of technologies around block chain make it just as
easy if not more seamless to update trading volumes.
With this in mind it is not to say stocks and cryptocurrencies are superior for
analysis. As we shall see in examples in other markets that don’t display
trading volume, charts can still be analyzed to great effect with price action
alone.
Overall volume can be described as the following...
Drivers Of Volume
Before getting into some chart examples let’s first discuss some of the drivers
of volume. Asking what drives volume? Is essentially asking why the market
has certain quantities of buying and selling at any given time? There are
many reasons why there might be more interest to buy than sell or visa versa,
as well as a myriad of reasons for the market to be relatively neutral and
balanced with near equal buying and selling pressure. Moreover there can
also be periods of low and high volume.
The “market” is a collective of market participants. For this general
discussion It doesn’t matter who the market participants are whether they be
short term traders or long term investors. It makes little difference for our
initial understanding of this concept if the market participants are individual
people with low capital, large institutions with lots of capital, or even whether
they be computers trading based on algorithmic models. The point here is that
there can be plenty of diversity in terms of market participants who will
ultimately effect price action and volume when they buy and sell. Moreover
each market participant has their own unique set of reasons they may choose
to buy and sell, or do nothing at all at any point in time. Thus regardless of
how much influence they can exert on price action and volume each market
participant adds even more diverse and variable influence with their own
unique circumstances and reasoning for how and when they may choose to
participate in the market.
With the above information in mind it is then important to remember that the
market is a mass of market participants, in other words a crowd. Thus like
any other crowd there will be many reasons as to why they act the way they
do. However most often there will be a few main reasons that drive the
majority of the crowd’s behavior. In our discussion that means although there
can be high diversity in terms of market participants and even more
variability in the reasons behind their actions, at the end of the day there will
be a few key influences dominating the reasoning for the bulk of the crowd.
Low Of Volume
It is also useful to understand some common influences related to periods of
low volume. This can be quite important for identifying time spans when the
market sill be relatively flat in price action and have low trading activity.
Holidays are well known for being periods of low trading activity since
market participants like most everyone else are taking a break. Half days and
the days before a holidays often see low volume before the actual holiday
itself.
Anticipation before major events such as the ones listed above as the drivers
of increasing volume can also see periods of low volume. For example in the
stock market it is quite common to see low trading activity just before a
quarterly report. Likewise after a major event has occurred such as the ones
listed above, there may be a lull in trading activity as the market digests what
has happened. Periods of low volume are often the result of uncertainty
following a major market move.
Miscellaneous Drivers Of Volume
Next there are reasons for market participants to buy and sell regardless of
whether major events reduce or increase volume. These influences explain
why there will still be buying occurring in the market even when the vast
majority are selling and visa versa selling taking place even when prices are
soaring. Along with why even during periods of low volume there are still
buyers and sellers.
One reason could be market participants trying to scale in and out of
positions. This means market participants already hold a position and they
now want to reduce or increase that position. A straightforward example is
buying 100 shares of a stock and scaling up by buying more shares in the
hopes of capturing more profits, or scaling down by selling shares to reduce
exposure to the market and thus risk potential.
There is also dollar cost averaging where investors periodically add more
capital to buy more of an investment. In other words an investor will buy an
asset at planned intervals. For example an investor buys a certain quantity of
stock shares every month. Thus there is buying in the market that is not
directly related to the types of catalyst events that are the main drivers of
volume.
Selling volume can also occur due to traders and investors trying to cash out
of their positions in the market. The reasons for doing so are highly
individualized, for example one might sell because they reach a satisfactory
level of profit. Others may sell to cut losses. While others may choose to sell
regardless of whether they are at a loss or profit, because the capital from the
sale is needed for something else. For example an investor may choose to
liquidate(sell off) a large portion of their holding in order to use the cash to
make a big purchase such as buying a house, paying off debt, or buying other
assets that appear to be more promising.
Swing points naturally form around areas of support and resistance. These are
contentious areas where buyers and sellers are concentrated. Here the swing
points around 55 offer potential support as the market falls back towards 55
after a strong surge up recently. Selling pressure increased after green buying
volume began to lessen before price failed to pass 57.
That being said at this current time the market has temporarily paused the
decline as price goes sideways and red selling volume has subsided in the
past few sessions. This is quite natural because the buyers that bought around
the time of the two downswings highlighted in red circles, are the
predominant force keeping the market up now. There is more interest for
them to hold at 55 or buy more of this asset. While at the same time there is
less incentive to sell and loose as price dips but doesn’t decisively slip below
the mid 50s yet.
Selling is still present but it is low. The majority of the market in the short
term is content to hold the asset around 55 and even buy more towards the
upper 50s. Thus any selling is practically negligible at this point. Before the
current red spike right now there was a relative increase in volume in the
preceding 4 sessions. The market is bullish in the short term but in the bigger
picture remember the market reached a new high at 57 and a few red selling
volume spikes have easily driven price down recently.
At the bottom left corner it reads volume (20) which simply means the bluish
purple colour over the red and green volume bars represents the average
volume over the past 20 sessions. This is not necessary but is useful in
visualizing relative increases and decreases in volume in the shorter to
medium term context for the demonstrations.
The market is now very volatile as the steady rise reverses with renewed red
spikes.
The buyers are still holding strong around the 55 area even with the renewed
increase in selling pressure. As once again there is a dip below 55 followed
by sideways indecisive action. Thus here we see the influence of the initial
two downswings highlighted in the red circles. That initial area of selling
around 55 is now acting as a support as price falls onto it again.
However keep in mind the supporting potential around 55 is not guaranteed.
In the bigger picture selling pressure is greater and increasing following the
reversal down from 57. The contingent of traders and investors in the market
that is holding on to this asset at the 55 area, mainly from the initial two
downswings and then the recent up swing up off 55, is beginning to weaken.
There is increasing incentive to sell and avoid losses as the market is under
pressure and few buyers are stepping into the 55 area again.
Here we also see the importance of swing points as an area or price range and
not an exact level. 55.17 and 57.00 are simply nice visual representations of
where the market concentrates buying and selling. In reality the market will
never truly have a pin point price down to the decimal that can be reliably
called the exact swing point to form support and resistance. It is more
realistically the price where buyers and sellers are most concentrated slightly
above, or below that level, and not always exactly on it. In other words it is
best to utilize a price range that centers around an important price level.
Rather than using a single price level.
Upon the decisive break below 55(marked by the yellow circle), it is now
very clear the slight support in the form of sideways price action was only a
temporary phase. Constant selling pressure continues to drive down towards
52.00(the site of a major swing point, in this case an up swing in the recent
past).
52.00 offers potential support but we must keep in mind the downtrend that is
still developing in the longer term perspective.
The downtrend intensifies rapidly and easily drops below 52. Here it is a
repeat of what happened at 55 except to a stronger degree. Price stalled for a
very brief period before moving even lower with continued pressure brought
about by the constant selling from the mid to low 50s.
After a while the market begins to recover as there is a shift to almost no
more selling volume around the 49 level.
Incidentally 49 was also the site of the last major upward reversal that put an
end to the last major down trend further back. Thus it is quite natural for the
current upswing to form strongly around 49. Additionally 52 now offers
some resistance on the way back up, even though there is proportionally farm
more green buying volume. It is by no means intense but there is constant
green buying volume easily visible. So after some flat price action centring
around 52 the resistance is overcome as green volume gradually and steadily
increases along with a surge up in the price action.
Price will usually not break out past support/resistance like for
Zoom when it returned back to 160 for the first time, when there
are more closing prices below the resistance. In the case of support
it is the opposite where price drops below supporting prices but
closes above them. This is applicable to all charts whether it be the
closing prices for a 15 minute, 5 minute, or a weekly chart.
However like in most of the examples above this is especially
effective on the daily time frame where each candle/session is one
day. In the case support/resistance does not hold the price action
will often streak right past these barriers. The price action will be
quick often in the form of one or a few long candles such as was
seen with the decline of Bitcoin price going through all those
supporting levels and breaking lower and lower.
The last example using the SPY ETF of the S&P 500 index
provides a good illustration of resistance and support levels having
even higher accuracy and validity when they are applicable across
multiple time frames. In that case it was intraday support and
resistance on the 15 minute time frame that had high relevance
even when applied to the larger daily time frame, where many of
the same levels aligned with accurate support and resistance areas
on the daily chart.
The SPY chart in the last example also provides a clear illustration
of support and resistance acting to stall price sideways before a
break further to continue the current trend, or begin a reversal.
These instances are highlighted in the orange regions for price
stalling sideways before reversing at the yellow areas, or breaking
past support/resistance often with a price gap. In some cases price
begins stalling before even contacting the marked price levels,
almost like a repelling magnet as seen by the sideways price
stalling just under 322 before a downward reversal point form
directly on 322 from July 11th-15th. Minor stalling can still be
seen even during a strong drop such as when the SPY chart
continued dropping below the 317-316 range but still slowed down
marginally before resuming lower around July 14th.
Let’s go through a few more examples step by step to see how support and
resistance develop in greater detail. Most of these concepts of drawing
horizontal price levels and ranges will transfer over to drawing trend lines
and channels which are slightly more difficult to master as they are angled
and not horizontal.
This case of Spotify stock will be useful in understanding a situation where a
new asset has been listed on the market. Spotify Technologies listed on the
New York Stock Exchange in mid 2018 as shown above. Let’s see how price
from the first day impact support and resistance far into the future, along with
the normal ways of finding support/resistance through swing points.
196.30 provides a helpful identification of upmost resistance thus far, and it
encompasses many of the key resistance features we discussed earlier.
Namely it runs through 3 major downswings that produced a large decline in
price. Next pay attention to 165.90 which is the opening price on the first day
Spotify began trading on the markets. This price is also called the IPO(Initial
Public Offering) price. Then there is 149.01 which is the closing price for
Spotify from its first day of trading on the markets. Similar to price gaps the
prices from an asset’s first day of trading have high influence on future
support/resistance formation It is also one of the few basic yet effective ways
of identifying support/resistance without necessarily lining up price levels
and ranges with past swing points. This will mainly apply to the stock market
because it is much more common for new stocks to be listed on the market
than currencies, commodities, or other assets.
Right from the start 165.90 and 149.01 support and resist price. This is very
natural during the early life of a chart like this. Furthermore it is quite
apparent lots of interest is naturally concentrated around the IPO price as
evidenced by the disproportionately high volume at that price range.
Over a year later and 149.01 still exerts great influence on Spotify’s price
action. Here you will notice a secondary characteristic that is not necessary
but adds to the validity and strength of good support/resistance. That is “role
reversal” 149.01 initially supported falling price with many reliable up
swings, and now it produces resistance and already formed a strong
downtrend with another one likely in development right now.
Price continues to remain under pressure at 149.01 as buyers are unable to
clear it decisively. At tht same time lower support can be drawn around the
120.50 and 105 levels that produced major reversals recently.
After prolonged but natural contention at such a major level like 149.01,
Spotify declines sharply onto 120 which also happens to be a gap fill for the
recent price gap up that formed in late October. Once again knowing about
price gaps is not entirely necessary for our purposes here but it is further
validation of the 120.50 area as strong support. Even if there was no price
gap though, there were already two major upswings with high volume, that
formed quick and sharp reversals back up.
If you are interested in fully understanding price gaps the book Realistic
Stock Chart Analysis: Price Gaps Explained Using Real Chart Examples is an
excellent resource. Price gaps are a more common occurrence in the stock
market because of regular sessions with defined hours when the market is
opened and closed, along with regular scheduled catalysts that drive
volume(mainly quarterly reports).
Although the 120.50 area offers considerable support potential it still has
price penetrate below it before the rapid incline back up. This is due to the
strong and volatile downtrend that preceded, as evidenced by the volatile
price action and increased volume at that price range during the March 2020
to April 2020 time span.
We begin with the Bitcoin case that was covered when identifying horizontal
support/resistance. All those levels such as 7100 and 10820 are strictly
horizontal price levels and ranges since they only cover the left to right side
of the chart. In order to gather more information about strength, direction,
and time, we need to use lines and ranges that are angled. In other words we
need to use the trend lines which are diagonal lines.
At this point in history it was not known for sure if Bitcoin had peaked just
below 20000. We of course know it was the peak due to the benefit of
hindsight. However like in all the other case studies we shall examine the
application of trend lines that will be limited to the information that would
have been available on the chart at the current late December 2017 time
period. Here there was a clear new downswing around 16500 forming a lower
high.
Unlike flat horizontal price levels and ranges used for support/resistance,
trend lines cannot be drawn with a single swing point. A minimum of two
swing points is required to draw a trend line. This is because you actually do
need two points from the X axis on the chart, in other words two points in
time. Thus swing points combine elements of time and price when they are
plotted.
During the current time period displayed on the chart there is a fairly steep
angle of descent. Remember from the earlier discussion about price action, it
is not necessary to measure how many degrees the trend line angle is. It is
possible to tell just by visual inspection. Moreover the descending trend line
drawn above is even steeper because the trend line is plotted running through
the highest point of those two swing points. There is no penetration of price
above these two swing points because the volume is normal or lower than
normal. If the volume was higher it would be acceptable to lower the angle
and have the trend line contact the opening or closing prices of one or both
swing points, resulting in some natural penetration of price above the trend
line. This is the same as flat horizontal support and resistance. It is natural for
temporary penetration of a price level or range, if there is higher volume.
Since the descending trend line here is steep it is less stable. Often steep trend
lines will soon have price pass through them as seen above. In this case and
at this time period of the 2018 new year, it tells us the descent is strong but it
is slightly too much selling too fast. Thus price as highlighted by the blue
circle easily passes back above the trend line with low but consistent green
price action and volume. You may recall this is similar to the feature of flat
horizontal support/resistance where price often goes sideways before
breaking past a price level.
Later on the strong descent continues, demonstrating that the weak bullish
volume has indeed been part of a relatively minor bounce. The bigger picture
is still bearish as the 16500 area becomes the site of a new downswing unable
to pass the most recent swing high.
A trend line is more valid, effective, and reliable when it has not been broken
through. Thus it is sensible to readjust the trend line to be plotted through the
more recent swing high that just formed. This swing point also has no price
penetration above it since the volume is exceedingly and relatively low. It
would not make sense to run that second point of the trend line further into
the recent downswing to have some price penetration of the swing point
above the trend line, because naturally such low volume is rarely able to
produce such price action.
Bitcoin forms a steady upswing off 7100 but as soon as it reaches the 10820-
12330 price range it naturally encounters resistance. Even if that price range
was not identified the descending trend line adequately identifies resistance
around this price range as Bitcoin rises towards it now. Additionally we are
also given some information about the strength of the prior longer term
decent, in that it is likely to push back down on the recent upswing that
formed off 7100. Furthermore the descending trend line also reveals an
approximate time range when the 10820-12330 price range will have stronger
resistance potential, as their is confluence at this area where trend line and
resistance range intersect. Similar to flat horizontal support and resistance as
price now approaches the trend line it can naturally begin to stall sideways.
Another sharp reversal develops upon direct contact with the trend line.
Sharp reversals on trend lines also add to their validity as they do with
support/resistance.
Later on it is essentially a repeat with another downswing forming at 10820
following a temporary rise upon breaking above the trend line. Once again
this demonstrates the downtrend is in need of a rest and selling pressure has
subsided in the short to medium term, but the bigger picture is still one of an
overwhelmingly large downtrend. Especially as the market fails to get back
above the recent downswing at 10820 from mid February and selling pressure
increases upon dropping below the 10000 mark. Though we can still see the
influence of the broken trend line in the highlighted purple rectangle, where
price gently slides down during the return back to 7100.
After adjusting the descending trend line once more it is very apparent with
the zoomed out view above, as to the strength and scale of the decline.
When price eventually recovered off 7100 again it broke the trend line and
like before you can see the characteristic similar to flat horizontal
support/resistance. Price stall slightly before breaking above the trend line,
since it still offers some degree of resistance. Additionally you may have also
noticed each time price broke through the trend line it was at an area where
flat horizontal supporting and resisting price ranges could be drawn. This is
another common and natural feature of trend lines.
Overall the initial steep downtrend does end as the market rises heading into
May. However Bitcoin doesn’t recover at that time. Instead it falls into what
can be called a sideways range for several months longer. In the longer term
perspective it is a neutral to slightly declined range that serves as a
consolidation phase before breaking below the 7100 area to begin a new
phase towards lower prices. Thus here the trend line was useful in
determining approximate price ranges and times where there would be
stronger resistance to the temporary recoveries back up.
The following case of Costco stock contrasts from the previous Bitcoin chart
in that it is a trend line that is inclined and providing support, and it is much
more stable since it is at a shallower angle.
Overall the first swing point on the trend line has low volume at the sharp
point where price reverses suddenly from a strong bearish drop to a steady
bullish rise. Thus there is accordingly low penetration of this upswing point
below the trend line.
The second swing point by contrast has high volume and an even sharper and
more rapid reversal. Thus this swing point can naturally penetrate below the
trend line. Once again it is not necessary but it helps to know candle patterns.
This swing point is on a bull hammer candle so the closing price is a good
place to run the initial trend line through.
These are realistic chart example showing what happens before, during, and
after the chart is analyzed. In this case the trend line is decent but in hindsight
it could have been improved. Learning this way is far more effective than
looking at a chart in hindsight right from the beginning and seeing picture
perfect cases of support/resistance each time.
As seen in the Bitcoin example and the Spotify stock chart, it is sensible to
adjust your analysis accordingly if developments in price action present the
need. Here there is a need to adjust the trend line lower to accommodate the
two recent upswings that are still on the general trajectory as the original
trend line.
The results have improved as the stall and subsequent sharp upswing at 300
are more accurately captured.
Returning back to an earlier example, the SPY S&P500 index ETF
demonstrates that these same trend line principles can be applied to a variety
of contexts, in this case a shorter time frame like this 15 minute chart.
Some penetration of the sharp upswing point here with direct contact of
opening and closing prices on the trend line due to above normal volume.
A similar situation for the second swing point which also has penetration
slightly below the trend line and direct contact with the opening and closing
prices due to the higher volume.
Even though there is no swing point and upward reversal off this supporting
trend line and the 322.70 area, we are able to observe charts as they are in
reality. Nothing is guaranteed and this case is no exception. Although the
trend line was strong and stable with valid swing points it only stalled price
sideways as the drop was poised to attempt a break lower. Support was still
present but once again since there was no upswing it was more a case of
support in the secondary role of stalling price action sideways before the next
phase of the drop.
Similar to the situation when drawing flat horizontal support/resistance, the
trend line using major swing points in the intraday 15 minute time frame
transfers well as we see alignment with swing points on the daily chart. Thus
the congruence across time frames adds further validity, accuracy, and
reliability.
Crude oil futures allow us to examine a case of plotting reliable trend lines
without necessarily using volume, just as would be the case with other charts
such as forex charts.
A different market and time frame yet the overall process is reminiscent of
the last example using the SPY S&P500 ETF chart in the 15 minute time
frame.
Like flat horizontal support and resistance, multiple trend lines can be drawn
for greater detail, especially when price action forms suitable structures such
as the row of swing points shown above during a stable long term up trend.
Trend lines can also be thought of as zones and ranges instead of exact lines
similar to how flat horizontal support/resistance is more realistically a price
range and not an exact price level. Technically both the solid and dotted trend
lines are valid, they both cross at least two swing points. However since there
is no volume to reference for making finer adjustments based on how high
the volume is to determine the natural amount of penetration of swing points
past the trend line, it is still possible to use price action alone.
The uptrend eventually ends and similar to the example of the SPY S&P500
ETF chart it is a strong decline and the trend lines only offer a minor pause
before the market drops lower.
The same is true for the longer term trend line that was drawn first. They are
all valid trend lines but since it is another case of an overwhelming
downtrend they are only short lived neutral ranges. Whether the trend lines
are drawn contacting the absolute lows of the upswings with no penetration
through the trend line, or they are drawn with price piercing the trend line
and contact with opening and closing prices, the end results are still similar.
As illustrated by the highlighted yellow circles the next definitive move down
naturally has price close below either trend line variation.
Furthermore even after the first trend line was broken through it continued to
have influence when it reversed roles from support to resistance. Similar to
flat horizontal support/resistance levels, role reversal also adds to the validity
and strength of trend lines.
As seen above the upper trend lines are in a more short to medium term
context as they were originally drawn from early 2018.
When they are extended further back in time they also naturally align with a
upswings from a prior stable uptrend from the period 2016-2017. In addition
they intersect with a downswing from early 2016 to demonstrate another case
of role reversal adding to the validity and strength of a trend line.
Channels
Channels are to trend lines what trading ranges are to flat horizontal
support/resistance. They highlight a broader area of interest for market
participants. Except since trend lines incorporate elements of direction,
trajectory, and time, they provide additional information. Channels offer
additional guidance to single trend lines.
Continuing on with the previous chart of crude oil futures, a new trend line is
added above.
It is fairly parallel to form a parallel channel. In reality it will be less common
to have both trend lines of a “parallel channel” to line up exactly parallel at
the exact same angles.
A similar situation existed further back during the period 2016-2017.
Channels are normally a combination of two trend lines that are relatively
parallel as shown in the first two instances. Such a formation indicates a
stable trend in a broader context of time and price range. The buying and
selling forces are fairly balanced in both inclines to gradually lift price
higher. The orange region in later 2017 could be called a “channel” in that it
combines two trend lines and represents the “flow,” “trajectory,” or
“channelling” of price over a broader price and time range. However it is not
remotely parallel as the bottom portion is on a much greater incline. It is
more of akin to a wedge or ascending triangle formation, where price is also
inclined up but there is stronger bias due to the bottom portion being at a
drastically steeper angle.
Though overall “channel” is still technically an appropriate word in the
linguistic sense. It is still a representation of “channelling” the “flow” and
direction in a certain band of price and time range. Much the same way radio
signals, or waves of light fall into a spectrum and can be divided into
different channels and ranges. When it comes to technical analysis of
financial charts “channel” often refers to the first to kinds of instances of
“parallel” price movement. Other formations that are more skewed are
referred to in the category of triangles and wedges. As well flatter ranges are
more commonly called trading ranges as opposed to flat channels.
A standard trend line is drawn on the Lululemon Athletica stock chart and
right from the start it is obviously steep and not surprisingly has price pass
below it quite soon.
The orange region highlights a much stabler and sustainable path that allowed
for the stock price to steadily rise far into the future.
Note that the trend line drawn at the beginning is still approximately
influential as it is close to the site of the major downward reversal in early
2020.
Then in March a similar steep trend line can be drawn when the market
makes a rapid recovery.
A similar situation unfolds as the steep trend line is broken. While at the
same time the incline stabilizes into a shallower angle, as shown by the blue
trend lines.
The new channel is much steeper than the previous one but nonetheless it is
still a more stable path than the single trend line drawn at the origin of the
current uptrend that started in March 2020.
The same characteristics of higher and/or constant volume accompanying the
break of barriers is still present here in the context of channels. This
particular instance at the end of May demonstrates Lululemon stock price is
steepening trajectory once more to reach for newer highs with very bullish
price action and volume similar to the beginning of the uptrend in March.
The example of LYFT stock chart provides a comprehensive example of all
the concepts discussed thus far. Including an extra emphasis on channels and
an instance of a newly listed stock on the market as LYFT during this time
period had been trading on the stock market for less than a year.
Although things started off quite bearish LYFT still had a relatively stable
phase heading into 2020 with a shallow upward channel. On the first two
charts starting from October 2019 to the 2020 new year it might have been
difficult to say for sure if the initial bearish move would continue with the
same strength and drop below 2020. However it became quite clear even
without the benefit of hindsight here. Since there are some of the classic
characteristics of good support/resistance, trend lines, and channels that
appear, particularly around early to mid February 2020. At that time it was
clear a channel was firmly established, along with a recent sharp dive in price
and increase in red bearish volume. Eventually this rapid decline stopped
right on the firm lower trend line of the channel, which provided temporary
supporting force with a sideways range. Given such context the large drop
that followed was to be expected. There was the initial bearish drop right
from the IPO date until the formation of the channel starting in October 2019.
Then those more recent and rapid bearish developments gave additional
rationale for a likely break of the channel and continuation of the longer term
drop.
As April draws to a close it is clear price is developing a recovery after the
temporary dip below 20.00. A stable channel can not be drawn yet since the
upswings are at a much steeper angle than the downswings which have so far
formed a very stable incline similar to the prior channel.
After a relatively short wait LYFT makes a rapid move back up to the new
trend line which promptly provides resistance for the third time in a row. The
resulting drop and subsequent upswing forms the relatively parallel bottom
trend line to give us a clear channel. This provides another example of the
characteristics of increased volume, especially near a very sharp swing point
such as this one where price reversed up almost instantaneously.
Overall the second channel is similar to the first one in many respects. It has
a shallow incline and that is in large part why it also had a relatively long life
span of about 3 months. A similar stalling appeared upon contact with the
lower boundary in the June-July period before the current break lower.
Once more there are the natural increases in volume quantity and/or
consistency near contentious points, in this case the upper and lower
boundaries of the channel. The volume at the site of the downward break
from June-July is slightly more subtle but compared to the surrounding days
the days of the decisive bearish moves have higher bearish volume to tip the
scales ever further downward.
An additional feature clearly demonstrated here is that the site of major swing
points often near the beginning and end of a channel are the approximate
price levels and ranges of influential flat and horizontal resistance/support.
Next Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) stock provides a contrasting start to
the same approximate time period from April 2019. A moderate to steep
channel appears after a strong reversal formed near the end of 2018.
The uptrend and therefore the channel, technically start in 2019 when price
fails to drop lower and instead forms a sharp reversal which eventually
surpasses the late 2018 highs. However here the trend lines can be extended
backwards to line up with the some approximate swing point areas in the case
of the upper trend line. This is not necessary but it does show that
approximate price trajectory has additional influence from those late 2018
swing points.
Although this channel is obviously steeper than the shallow and stable
channels from the previous LYFT example, the overall formation spans a
similar 3 months period at this point. Normally steeper inclines like this are
less long lived. However there are adequate volume spikes upon contact with
the upper and lower bounds of the channel to to contain price within the
approximate trajectory.
The most important parts of a channel are the lower and upper trend lines,
similar to how the upper and lower horizontal lines are the most important
and distinct features of a flat trading range. However it is still possible and
useful to draw trend lines and channels in between. It is not entirely
necessary in most all cases but does illustrate the characteristics of sideways
to slightly inclined price action when price comes into contact with the
influence of the middle trend line here.
Eventually AMD breaks the lower trend line and moves relatively sideways
instead of straight down.
The channel was obviously broken, but it can still exert influence later on,
such as in December where price overcomes the resistance of the lower trend
line and reenters the approximate trajectory it had been on prior to the earlier
break.
In this case AMD forms a normal flat horizontal trading range as opposed to
an angled channel. Though it is similar to other channel examples in that
price is still stabilizing in a resting phase before a big breakout. Price is also
still being channelled on a certain path albeit a flat sideways path as opposed
to an angled trajectory.
Also note the typical characteristic of increased volume at a contentious area.
In this case the bullish spike to easily surpass the previously firm 58.30
resistance.
The last thing to take away from this AMD example is to realize trend lines
and channels are slightly less effective and influential after price has broken
through either their upper or lower boundaries. As seen here and in other
examples price was still influenced by the trend lines after they were broken
but that influence was to a lower degree as evidence by the formation of a
mainly sideways rather than inclined range with AMD. Channels and trend
lines are not invalidated entirely after price breaks through them. Rather it is
best to remember to use them as past references with diminished influence
rather than strict support/resistance.
Flat horizontal support/resistance doesn’t suffer the same drawback because
they are fixed levels and ranges. Trend lines and channels are dynamic due to
the element of price and time that effects their angles. Strictly horizontal
price on the other hand is only one dimension of the chart that doesn’t change
angle. Moreover far more market participants will key in on flat horizontal
prices as opposed to trend lines and channels which aren’t as easily identified
and are subject to some variability in terms of their angles, especially if no
volume is available on the chart.
Returning back to the Zoom stock chart demonstrates the difference between
flat trading ranges, channels, and combining the two in the form of a
horizontal price level paired with a trend line. All 3 of these formations can
produce large breakouts, but the flat trading range is of course inherently
more neutral and not as predictable. Channels are inclined and show clear up
or downward bias from the start and when the upper boundary is crossed it
will often be a steepening of bullish price action. A break of the lower
boundary as we have seen is often a steepening of bearish price action. Then
when there is one trend line and one flat horizontal support combined we get
a mix. Often these are called triangle formations.
Like a normal trend line Zoom stock is gradually tipped upwards on the
approximate trajectory and the constant and significant increase in volume
towards the end of May accompanies the spike to easily pass the prior all
time high resistance around 160. These combined features form an ascending
triangle. Thus it has the angled nature of a channel and trend line that
provides an approximate guideline for price trajectory. While at the same
time the fixed and clear element of flat horizontal resistance/support is
present. The end result is a clear area of interest that has a bullish bias, in this
case it is due to the inclining trend line applying bullish pressure to the
horizontal resistance range around 160.
It is indeed a classic ascending triangle formation that clears resistance to
strongly carry on the longer term up trend. Also just like most all formations
the ascending triangle has a counterpart in the form of the descending triangle
with a horizontal support that has a descending trend line applying bearish
selling pressure. The result is a formation or pattern that is naturally going to
increase the chances of a longer term preexisting bearish downtrend.
At this point we begin to see the connection and evolution of technical
analysis elements. Simple price action and volume relate to swing points,
which in turn leads to identifying support/resistance price levels and ranges.
Eventually trend lines and channels introduce more dynamic elements such
as time and trajectory to the analysis. Now the ascending and descending
triangles provide the transition into the more intermediate topic of chart
patterns and formations, which are add an entirely new layer of utility and
complexity to technical analysis.
To learn more about chart patterns like the ascending and descending
triangle, along with other technical analysis methods visit...
https://www.ascencore.com/books
The concepts are fairly straightforward after an initial learning curve. Just
like the concepts discussed here chart patterns, and even more advanced
techniques present the greatest difficulty when trying to apply them on real
live charts that are highly dynamic. It is difficult to efficiently and safely
learn and develop analysis skills without actually spending time and risking
money on real live charts, trades, and investments. Real chart examples
providing case studies of what happens before, during, and after analysis,
allow for a condensed learning and practising experience without the risk of
entering live trades and investments. As well it saves time and energy
because finding and analyzing appropriate chart formations takes a lot of
effort.