Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment

A study on
Vulnerability Assessment and Formulation of Climate Change

Adaptation Strategies for Langtang National Park and Buffer Zone
Prepared by:
Socio-economic, Agro-Forestry and Environment (SAFE) Concern
G. P. O. Box No. 21664, Kathmandu, Nepal
Tel: +977-1-4491369
E-mail: safeconcen@gmail.com
Investigators:
Ram Kumar Deo
Hari Krishna Shrestha
Bhaiya Khanal
Shiva Devkota
September 30, 2008
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Acknowledgements
Socio-economic, Agro-forestry and Environment (SAFE) Concern is delighted and

honored undertaking the valuable research study on “vulnerability assessment and
formulation of climate change adaptation strategies for Langtang National Park (LNP)
and Buffer Zone”. SAFE Concern family is highly grateful to World Wildlife Fund
(WWF) Nepal program for providing financial, technical, material and moral support to
successfully accomplish this study. Particularly, it gives us pleasure to thank Mr. Anil
Manandhar, the country representative, WWF Nepal Program, who honored our expertise
and brought forth scientific tie up. Many WWF officials have directly or indirectly
contributed in this study; we are thankful to all of them. Worth mentioning are Ms. Neera
Shrestha Pradhan, Mr. Sanjeeb Chamling Rai and Ms. Moon Shrestha who formalized the
research design, demonstrated keen interest in providing technical support and inspired
the team for success. Our heartfelt appreciations are due to Dr. Rinjan Shrestha,
conservation biologist, for his genius ideas on vulnerability assessment of biological
entities. We would like to thank Mr. Bhawani Dangol for arranging logistical supports
and doing his genuine duty of making us conscious to timely accomplish the study. Mr.
Gokarna Thapa deserves special thanks for providing GIS data and equipments. We can
not remain without congratulating the research investigators Dr. Hari Krishna Shrestha,
Mr. Ram Kumar Deo, Mr. Bhaiya Khanal, and Mr. Shiva Devkota and the research
associates Mr. Kamal Thapaliya, Mr. Shalik Ram Sigdel and Mr. Prabesh Paudel for
successfully accomplishing the work. We also feel obligation to thank Mr. Deo again who
performed the dual role at managerial and technical level and worked hard in editing and
compiling the results.
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Table of contents
1. Introduction ..................................................................................................................... 1
1.1 Background................................................................................................................ 1
1.2 Objectives .................................................................................................................. 6
2. Methods ........................................................................................................................... 7
2.1 Study Area ................................................................................................................. 7
2.2 Vulnerability assessment ........................................................................................... 8
2.2.1 Vulnerability assessment of fresh water system................................................. 9
2.2.2 Vulnerability assessment of biodiversity:......................................................... 10
2.2.3 Vulnerability assessment of local livelihood.................................................... 11
3. Results ........................................................................................................................... 13
3.1 Vulnerabilities of fresh water system and adaptation measures.............................. 13
3.2 Vulnerabilities of biological diversity ..................................................................... 27
Previous studies on Ochotona species ..................................................................... 27
Previous study on Parnassius butterflies ................................................................ 32
Adaptation strategies to minimize the impacts of climatic change ......................... 36
Conclusions ............................................................................................................. 38
3.3 Vulnerabilities of people’s livelihood and adaptation measures............................. 38
3.3.1 Impacts on different attributes of livelihood .................................................... 39
3.3.2 Community Adaptation Options....................................................................... 43
3.3.4 Recommended adaptation options for livelihood sustenance .......................... 44
References: ........................................................................................................................ 47
Annexes ............................................................................................................................. 50
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1. Introduction
1.1 Background
The warming of global climate is now unequivocal. There are many observations of
increasing air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice, and rising sea
levels (IPCC, 2007). The global warming is mainly attributed to human activities such as
burning of fossil fuels, landuse change and deforestation that lead to emission of Green
House Gases (GHG) and aerosols in the atmosphere. The atmospheric concentrations of
GHG particularly carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O) have
significantly increased worldwide since the beginning of the industrial revolution in
1970s. For example, atmospheric concentration of CO2 has increased from 278 ppm in the
pre-industrial era (1970) to 379 ppm in 2005, at an average of 1.9 ppm per year (IPCC,
2007). Recent studies suggest that the existing GHG and aerosols in the atmosphere have
led to the absorption of 0.85 ± 0.15 Watt/m2 more energy by the earth than emitted to
space (Kulkarni et al, 2007). IPCC (2007) projects that without further action to reduce
GHG emissions, the global average surface temperature is likely to rise by a further 1.8 -
4 0C this century. Even the lower end of this range would take the temperature increase
since pre-industrial times above 20C, the threshold beyond which irreversible and
possibly catastrophic changes become far more likely.
The climatic impacts on fragile eco-systems of Nepal’s Himalaya are not exceptional.
According to the reports from the Department of Hydrology and Meteorology (DHM),
average temperatures are rising annually at a rate of 0.06 0C in Nepal (BBC, 2007).
International Center for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD), 2007 has reported
that warming in Nepal has increased progressively within a range of 0.2-0.6 0C per
decade between 1951 and 2001, particularly during autumn and winter. Many studies
suggest that warming in the Himalaya has been greater than the global average. Experts
from DHM have concluded that the rate of warming in the Himalaya, on average at 0.12
0
C, is higher than in many places (BBC, 2007). The effects of climate change in
mountains are claimed to be more intense and detectable since climatic conditions vary
more sharply with elevation than with latitude e.g. mean temperatures decline about 1 0C
per 160m of elevation, compared to 1 0C per 150 km by latitude (ICIMOD, 2007).
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The Himalayas play a crucial role in regional atmospheric circulation, hydrological cycle
and recharging of water resources that ultimately support people’s livelihood and
biological diversity. Nonetheless, climatic stresses on the Himalaya are mounting up
mainly due to human activities. The climatic impacts are perceivable in the form of
changes in the timing of biological events such as tree phenology and wildlife migrations
or extinctions and changes in seasonal or reproductive behaviors. It is increasingly being
observed that biological systems are disrupted, migrations are starting earlier and species'
geographic ranges are shifting towards the higher altitudes. Studies have shown that the
timing of biological events is related to air temperature, soil temperature, precipitation,
soil moisture, snow cover, solar illumination and photoperiod (Green et al, 2008).
Phenological changes in response to climate change have a wide range of environmental
and socio-economic consequences, with impacts on wildlife, agriculture, forestry and
human well-being. Phenological observations have been used by farmers for many years
to improve agricultural practices, such observations are often easy to make and easy to
communicate to a wider audience (Green et al, 2008).
The loss of biodiversity at genetic, species, or ecosystem levels is proceeding apace as a

result of habitat change, climate change, invasive species, overexploitation of resources
and many forms of pollution. Article 14 of the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD)
identifies impact assessment as a key instrument for achieving the conservation,
sustainable use and equitable sharing objectives (Slootweg et al., 2006). Nepal’s key
assets vulnerable to climate change are water and biodiversity. The predicted impacts
include major shifts in the strength and timing of the climatic systems such as monsoon,
air pressure systems and Westerlies. This could lead to extreme events like excessive
rainfall, floods and drought both in terms of magnitude and frequency. Unusual changes
in weather pattern of highlands are reported in many literatures. Study from highland
districts of Nepal such as Manang and Mustang has reported declining production of grass
in pastures due to moisture deficiencies resulting from reduced snow deposits (Tiempo
Climate Newswatch, 2007). One more implication of early snow melt and ensuing
changes to water availability is adverse effect on hydropower infrastructure and
efficiency. DHM has reported that annual rainfall is increasing by 13 mm, while the
numbers of rainy days are decreasing by 0.8 days per year. The direct consequences of
high rainfall are flooding, landslides, erosion and downstream sedimentation which are
posing threats to downstream communities and environment. Since agricultural
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production is inherently associated with hydrological cycle, people’s livelihood is
vulnerable to the effects of climate change. Livelihood of highland communities are
highly influenced by climate change induced risks. People encounter major problems
such as change in agricultural practice, appearance of new pests and diseases, decreasing
water sources, and glacial floods from the lakes swollen by melting glaciers. Other
generally accepted affects of climate change on local socio-economy are
• landslides, flash flood, erosion and increased frequency of avalanches
• harsh winter weather incidents causing loss of property
• reduced water flow in streams and springs
• reduced agricultural production
• damage of roof and walls of traditional mud houses
The huge source of fresh water in ice-capped mountains is shrinking due to warming up
of atmosphere. The melting of snow and the transport of water and sediment can lead to
major hazards such as avalanches, debris flows, flash floods and glacial lake outburst
floods (GLOFs). The impacts of climate change on glaciers and its subsequent impact on
fresh water sources, biodiversity and livelihood is a major issue, both in national and
international context.
In Nepal, there is a scarcity of information on Himalayan wetlands making it difficult to

get a clear idea on status especially with regards to the threats on their existence. Hence,
the conservation and wise use of these resources have not got adequate attention. Climate
change have significant role in the deterioration of wetlands quality; however, limited
study can be found that show indicators of fresh water imperfection due to climate
change. Further, lack of technical knowledge and action plan has exacerbated negative
impacts on the high altitude wetlands.
High mountains harbor areas of high biodiversity value as such areas have clear tree line
with distinct ecosystems in transition called eco-tones. Study on species diversity and
abundance of pioneer species at such an environment is important to know the shifting up
of tree line or wildlife habitat due to climate change. Keystone species such Pika and
butterflies are highly susceptible to the impacts of climate change and hence are indicator
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species. This study implemented in the high altitude protect area, the Langtang National
Park, has focused towards assessing the vulnerability and reporting the livelihood impacts
from climate change. Such a study is important to identify and adopt adaptation strategies
in the highly vulnerable mountain environment. The findings of this study can also be
used as baseline for further research to monitor the habitat of indicator species in future.
Nepal has expressed commitment through international conventions and treaties to

develop strategies to minimize the impacts of climate change on environment.
Government of Nepal (GoN) has set priority to climate change studies and information
dissemination. Indeed scientific research and monitoring are essential for the development
of proper strategy and action plans for environmental management. The overall thrust of
the research was to identify and analyze the current and future challenges and
opportunities related to climate change.
Vulnerabilities of biodiversity to climate change have been assessed in this study based
on field observations made on a small mammal named Pika or Mouse-hare (Ochotona
species) and a species of butterfly (Parnassius species, Apollo butterfly). Considering the
high susceptibility of the two species to rise in atmospheric temperature, they are used as
the principal indicators of climate change. The study has focused on only the two species
to come up with explicit quantitative outcomes.
Description of the indicator species

A. Pika (Ochotona species)
An important indicator species selected for this study is a small lagomorph called
Ochotona (Pika, Mouse Hare, and Linde Musa in Nepali). Pikas are native Himalayan
species which has never been reported below 2800 m elevation in Nepal. They are very
sensitive and highly susceptible to slight change in climatic elements, mainly rise in
temperature. This species was selected considering the following morphological and
physiological characteristics:
1. This animal has got interesting morphological features. It has soft skin and small
rounded ears and never go into hibernation even in the coldest months of the year.
Pikas are densely furred, and thus cannot dissipate heat easily.
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2. Physiology of this animal is specific to cold climatic condition as shown by the
experiment of Yang (1990) in Japan. The morphological characteristics and
thermal regulatory functions such as constitutionally short rounded ears, small
internal tail, extremely thin abdominal skin, high metabolic rate, poor heat
dissipation and high body temperature enable them to ecologically adapt to cold
and high altitude environment.
Yang (1990) has shown that Pikas are highly sensitive to the changes in surrounding
temperature. Weak heat tolerance in Pika is due to lack of autonomic heat loss response,
such as thermal panting (no heat loss during respiration) and difficulty of induction of
heat tolerant substance, the so called Heat Shock Protein (HSP).
Pikas are especially vulnerable to climate change for several reasons. In the face of
increasing global temperatures, mobile vertebrates are generally predicted to move
upslope or to more northern latitudes. Pikas cannot easily move to higher altitudes (or to
northward), as their habitat is usually fragmented and restricted to small areas. Although
talus in mountains is often continuous; some ranges only have habitable talus at lower
elevations or in broadly separated patches. In fact, Pikas generally do not appear to move
large distances, many individuals spend their entire lifespan within 1 km of radius.
Burrows inhabiting Pikas such as forest dwelling Ochotona roylei would be one of the
main sufferers if climate gets warmer; rise in temperature would push the species to new
habitat at higher altitudes. Talus dwelling Pikas that are active during hot seasons, are
also vulnerable to direct thermal stress with rise in temperature. In the hot seasons, they
establish shelter in vegetation for winter survival. Earlier senescence of vegetation may
mean increased stress to Pikas.
The Langtang region in central Nepal accommodates two species of Pikas (Khanal and
Shrestha, 2000 and Khanal unpublished). The two species are Ochotona roylei (Royle’s
Pika) and Ochotona macroteis (Large Eared Pika); both of them are sympatric. Royle
Pika is relatively more common than the later one. Descriptions of the two species of Pika
are given in the Annex 1.
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B. Butterflies (Pernassius species)
Butterflies are among the groups of organisms most likely to be affected by climate
change because climate has a strong direct influence on their development, reproduction
and survival (Bale et al., 2002). As butterflies have short generation period and high
reproductive rate (r-selected species), they are likely to respond quicker to climate change
than long lived organisms (k-selected species) such as mega vertebrates. They have
responded to atmospheric warming in all the predicted ways, from change in phenology
to alteration of life cycle (Khanal, 2006). Butterflies have provided examples of how
biodiversity and community structure is affected by the current climate change scenario.
The Langtang region houses 58 species of butterflies which are specifically adapted to
different altitudinal levels and climatic conditions (Khanal et al., 2002; Khanal 2006).
Apollo butterflies (Parnassius spp) are among the characteristically specialized native
species of the cool climate in Langtang region. The Apollo butterflies are represented by
two species in Langtang region out of 7 species in the entire nation. The two species are
Parnassius hardwickei hardwickei and Parnassius epaphus robertsii. May is the peak
time for the emergence of the high altitude butterflies in Langtang region. Understanding
the high sensitivity to climate change, butterflies are also considered as indicator species
in this study. In particular, the native Parnassius butterflies which respond quickly to
slight rise in temperature and never come below 2800m elevations have been considered.
The details of Parnassius species are described in Annex 2.
1.2 Objectives
The goal of this study project is to support future management strategies for Langtang
National Park and Buffer Zone by evaluating the impacts of climate change on the local
bio-physical and socio-economic environments, and recommending possible adaptation
measures. The specific objectives are:
1. To assess the vulnerabilities of existing socio-economic, environmental and

biological system in Langtang National Park and Buffer Zone by evaluating
changes in various indicators related to the impacts of climate change
2. To identify adaptation measures and formulate strategies to build up resilience in

local communities and ecosystems
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2. Methods
2.1 Study Area
The study was implemented in Langtang National Park (LNP) and Buffer Zone, Nepal.
LNP, spreading over 1710 km2 (latitude: 27.86-28.390 N and longitude: 85.18-85.900 E)
to the north of Kathmandu (at an aerial distance roughly 32 km), lies in the central
Himalaya. The park experience distinct summer and winter seasons. From mid-April to
mid-June, it is warm but often cloudy with occasional showers. Summer monsoon lasts
until the end of September. The mean annual precipitation in the area is about 1000 mm
and the mean annual temperature is 12.10C. LNP encloses the catchments of two major
river systems: one draining west into the Trisuli River and the other east to the Sun Koshi
River. Langtang itself is famous for its 108 lakes, the popular ones being Gosaikunda,
Suryakunda, Bhairavkunda, etc. These wetlands are also famous for its religious values.
The snowline in LNP lies at 5000 m above sea level (asl) while treeline is around 4500m
(Chaudhary, 1998). There are many glacier lakes in the selected area and the topography
is relatively smooth, especially where a glacier lake culminates, otherwise most of the
areas have canyons, steep cliffs and hanging valleys.
The complex topography and geology of LNP is associated with diverse climatic
conditions and a wide spectrum of vegetation. LNP and surrounding regions include two
major realms namely Indo- Malayan and Palearctic (DNPWC, 2008), thus representing
area of high biodiversity value. This high altitude protected area has sheltered many
native species that are adapted to the cool climatic conditions. The forest types in LNP
range from sub-tropical to alpine tundra vegetation. Larix, Oak, Chirpine, Maple, Fir,
Blue Pine, Hemlock, Spruce, many colorful flowering species like Gentiana, Primula,
Saxifraga and various species of Rhododendron constitute the floral elements. This park
accommodates significant faunal components like Snow Leopard, Red Panda, Musk Deer,
Himalayan Tahr, many birds and butterfly species. A huge area of the park is covered
with pastures, rocks, bare ground and snow/ glaciers. The park is one of the three
internationally recognized important protected areas for birds, and is also significant for
the diversity of its mammalian fauna. In addition to its scenic and amenity values, the
park features many cultural attributes including Gosaikunda. LNP is a well managed
protected area where deforestation and habitat loss still remain insignificant; thus it was
expected to provide good indicators of climatic impacts.
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Tamangs constitute the major ethnic group in Langtang area. Tourism is one of the
principal sources of income to local inhabitants. Thousands of Hindu devotees and
Buddhists annually visit Gosainkund, a sacred lake inside LNP, during Janai Purnima
Festival held in the month of September. Langtang valley is a paradise for trekkers where
panoramic view of Langtang and Langsisa can be seen. Major trekking destinations in
this region are Gatlang, Birdim, Rasuwa Gadi, Thulo Syabru, Singh Gomba, Gosain
Kund, Langtang Valley, Kyangjin and many glaciers.
2.2 Vulnerability assessment

Being a high altitude protected area, existing ecosystem and biodiversity of the park is
highly vulnerable to the effects of climate change. Parts of three VDCs namely Dhunche,
Langtang and Syafru were taken as the hot spots for the survey and analysis of different
attributes of biodiversity, fresh water systems and people’s livelihood. Assessment of
impacts of climate change to different components such as watershed, river, and
biodiversity and rural livelihood was carried out. The methods followed participatory
approach to gather community knowledge. Public consultation and expert judgment was
also pursued to characterize future risks and opportunities of climate change. As a part of
the investigation, pertinent literature and available secondary data were collected and
reviewed. Based on initial study of secondary data and expertise of the researchers in the
study team, a list of indicator parameters for investigation during field trip to the study
area was prepared. The field survey was carried out by a multidisciplinary team
consisting of a hydrologist, a biologist, a sociologist, and an NRM cum GIS expert. The
field survey followed two routes, one from Syabrubesi to Kyangjin and the other from
Thulo Syabru to Gosainkund and Suryakund Lakes.
The methods adopted in the study are summarized as below:
• Literature review
• Analysis of rainfall, temperature and river discharge data from DHM
• Field measurements and collection of GPS coordinates
• Visual observation and photographic recording of critical parameters
• Collection of samples of indicator species (plants and butterflies)
• Analysis of satellite data and digital elevation model
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• Household survey
• Key informant survey
• Focus group discussion
The methods by themes considered in the study are described as below:
2.2.1 Vulnerability assessment of fresh water system

I. Mean monthly rainfall data was obtained from DHM for three stations viz. Timure,
Dhunche and Thamachit; the former station have precipitation record since 1957
while the latter two have records from 1972 onwards. Monthly maximum, minimum
and mean temperature data were also obtained for the stations in Dhunche and
Langtang; Dhunche station have record since 1989 while Langtang station have
record since 1987. The missing data of stations were computed by normal ratio and
arithmetic average method. Trend analysis of rainfall and temperature data was
carried out by making scatter plots and fitting prediction models. Projections of
rainfall and temperature for the year 2050 have been made. Average monthly river
discharge (m3/sec) data was also collected from DHM for Bhote Koshi River
(Syafrubesi) and Langtang River; Bhote Koshi has discharge record from 1995 to
2003 while Langtang River has the record from 1994 to 1999. A spot measurement
of discharge was also made by the study team in Langtang River to compare the
field data with the data from DHM. Feasibility for the development of a hydropower
in the area was assessed by making observations of the river discharge and the
topographic characteristics.
II. Historical survey was made to understand the availability of water in local lakes in
different seasons. Knowledge of local people on general trend of snow fall (depth,
season: early or late, duration) was reviewed.
III. Field measurements were made together with local people at Kyanjig to obtain
information on retreating Kyanjig glaciers and snow lines around. Local information
on retreating snowline and treeline was verified by undertaking satellite image
classification and change detection.
IV. Key informant survey was carried out to know about the trend on availability of
water from natural sources for household or irrigation purpose. Information was also
sought about the changes in the water level of Gosaikunda and associated lakes.
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2.2.2 Vulnerability assessment of biodiversity:
The floral and faunal diversity at various altitudes of Langtang and Gosainkund areas are
documented by Khanal and Shrestha, 2000; Khanal et at., 2002; Khanal, 2006, and an
unpublished account of B. Khanal. These references and personal knowledge of
researchers were used to compare the data of this study with the previous ones in order to
determine habitat shift, disappearance or appearance of species and colonization by new
species. The field study was mainly focused at the hotspots where the previous studies
were conducted. The most vulnerable species of flora and fauna were identified in the
field; herbariums were made for some unidentified plants and were subsequently
identified by the experts. The susceptible plants and animals were recorded with their in
situ characteristics including distribution range and micro-habitat. To come up with
concrete results, only one species of a small mammal named Pika or Mouse-hare
(Ochotona species) and a species of butterfly (Parnassius species, Appolo butterfly) were
considered as the principal indicator species. Two methods were used to identify the shift
(if any) in the habitat of Pikas. This included assessing the habitat condition and
observing pellet heaps of pika at the entrance of their hay piles and comparisons with the
results of the previous studies (Khanal and Shrestha, 2000; Khanal, 2006). The areas
considered for field survey are typically representative of the habitat range of Pika and the
species of butterfly in terms of the land cover types and the altitudinal range.
The species diversity and counting of individuals of Ochotona spp and Parnassius spp
were recorded including their distribution ranges (altitude, slope and aspects). Butterflies
were identified in the field using manuals such as Smith (1989), Khanal and Smith (1997)
and Khanal et al (2002).The previous diversity list of butterflies was also reviewed to
compare with the list made in this study so as to know the number of species that are
missing or emerging.
The local inhabitants of the study area were interviewed with a questionnaire that mainly
focused on the impacts of climate change to most vulnerable flora and fauna of the area
and their present and past status. Shift in tree line was identified by historical survey with
key informants. The information from social survey was verified by analysis of remote
sensing data. Information was also collected on the invasion by colonizing/ pioneer
species in and around Pika habitat. Information was also sought on extinction of endemic
or appearance of new species of flora or fauna.
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Maps for distribution of the indicator species were produced using Landsat Thematic
Mapper (TM) image of 1988, Enhanced Thematic Mapper (ETM) image of 2000 and
Shuttle Radar Topographic Mission’s (SRTM) Digital Elevation Model (DEM) image.
Shift in treeline and snowline were identified by performing change detection from the
classified satellite images.
2.2.3 Vulnerability assessment of local livelihood

Simple random sampling and snow balling technique were used to gather information
from local communities, understanding the importance of local knowledge on impacts of
climate change and possible adaptation measures. Snow balling technique was basically
aimed to obtain information from key informants (e.g. elderly people, school teachers,
park personnel, members of bufferzone management committees, and others from local
conservation organizations) in which an informant was first visited and next one was
selected based on reference from the first. Household survey was made using a semi-
structured questionnaire to acquire information on agriculture practice, crop production,
availability of drinking and irrigation water etc. The questionnaire also included issues of
emergence of new pastes and diseases in agri-crops, any change in agri-practice, and
other likely causalities from climate change.
A total of 42 households were surveyed at different settlements starting from Dhunche to

Kyanjin as one route and Thulo syafru to Gosaikunda as another. Primarily, heads of the
households were respondents, but in their absence other senior member was considered.
Since the households were selected randomly, the respondents belonged to different age
class, gender and ethnic groups. Out of the 42 respondents from different occupation
(mainly farmers and hotel owners), 25 (60%) were male and 17 (40%) were female. The
settlements covered for household survey were Dhunche (1960m), Syafrubensi (1420m),
Thulo Syafru (2120m), Pahiro (1660m), Bamboo(1970m), Lama Hotel (2840m), Ghora
Tabela (3000m), Langtang (3420m), Kyanjin (3900), Deurali (2650), Singh Gompa
(3250), Cholang Pati (3550), Lauribina (3900) and Gosaikunda (4380).
A draft questionnaire was first prepared by the study team considering the issues
highlighted in literatures on climate change. The questionnaire was pre-tested at five
households in Dhunche and then finalized. Taking into account the semi-urban context
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where people are skeptic to structured questionnaire and formal interviews, semi-
structured questionnaire was used.
Focus group discussions were also organized at each of the visited settlements to obtain
agreed views of people on impacts of climate change and appropriate measures to cope
with adverse situations. In the process, experts of the study team introduced major issues
one by one seeking response from the participants. Each discussion lasted for one to three
hours.
The study has also scrutinized possible adaptation strategies by exploring local
community knowledge and linking to future climate change scenario. Emphasis has been
given towards identifying feasible and cost effective adaptation options that address the
major impacts of climate change. An attempt has also been made to develop an action
plan incorporating the roles of stakeholders and required resources.
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3. Results
3.1 Vulnerabilities of fresh water system and adaptation
measures
Assessment of freshwater resources is one of the fundamental themes in the vulnerability
assessment of the social, biological, ecological and livelihood system of any area. The
parameters assessed under the fresh water theme for evidences of the effects of climate
change in the LNP are:
(a) Glacier retreat and GLOF
Snow and glaciers are the

principal sources of fresh
water in Himalaya. There
are several glaciers in LNP
(see Figure 1). The retreat of
glacier is one of the strong
measurable evidences of
climate change. The field
observations gave the direct
impression of the impacts of
climate change in the
Figure 1: The fading Kimjung glacier in Langtang
retreat of glaciers and snow
lines at a hotspot such as Kimjung (Figure 1). With the assistance of a local resource
person, the study team visited and measured the retreated portion of Kimjung Glacier.
The resource person indicated a linear shift (along the up slope) in the retreating glacier at
Kimjung by about 68 m in the last 3-5 decades. The length, breadth and height of the
retreated part of Kimjung Glacier were 155 m, 68 m and 3.5 m respectively. This
information is plausible as is evident from the satellite images of 1988 and 2000 shown in
Figure 2. Analysis of the images coupled with DEM data revealed that the Kimjung
glacier has shifted by a vertical height of 22 m which means a linear distance of 34 m
along the 40 degree sloppy terrain of the glacier.
Land cover classification of the satellite images has also indicated a net reduction in the
spatial coverage of snow capped areas and glaciers throughout the LNP (see Figure 3).
The classified maps in Figure 3 also show fragmentation in the spatial coverage of
permanent snow lands. Some key informants also mentioned about the fragmentation of
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snow lands. Snow and forest cover areas of LNP in 1988 and 2000 are given in the Table
1 below. The Table 1 shows a net reduction in snow and glacial coverage by 15034.91 ha.
Similarly, forest areas have reduced by 4022.03 ha. The reduced snow and forest lands
have obviously turned to other land cover types, mainly bare lands.
Table 1. Land covers of LNP in 1988 and 2000

Land covers Area (ha) in 1988 Areas (ha) in 2000
1. Snow and glacier 34671.51 19636.6
2. Forest 98248.23 94226.2
3. Others 110599.11 129656.0
Retreat (upslope shift) of snow line has also been assessed from the satellite images by
employing DEM data. Coordinates of typical features at the snow lines such as terminus
of retreating glaciers and other conspicuous shapes of snow were recoded from the two
images and altitudes of the same points were extracted from DEM. Twelve such reference
points were identified in the 1988 image and their corresponding shifted positions in the
image of 2000. The Table 2 below shows the coordinates of the reference points in the
two images along with the altitudes in the two situations. An average retreat (vertical
distance) of 62.41 m (standard error: 14.55; confidence interval: 62.42±32.01) was
calculated from the 12 pair of locations (this calculation may have some error because of
the coarse spatial resolution of 90 m of the DEM data).
Table 2. Positions of 12 features on snow lines in 1988 and 2000 and calculated shift
Reference Reference Estimated
coordinates from coordinates from retreat
S.N. 1988 image Altitude 2000 image Altitude (m)
X Y (m) X Y (m)
1 359852 3124004 4313 360082 3124188 4491 178
2 358452 3125665 5044 358514 3125779 5044 0
3 361630 3130485 5226 361630 3130610 5311 85
4 360700 3131242 5434 361032 3131509 5527 93
5 352690 3123985 4582 352694 3124191 4637 55
6 363524 3123503 5069 363613 3123685 5088 19
7 367502 3121689 4824 365473 3123102 4926 102
8 369682 3123020 4904 369109 3123648 4946 42
9 385496 3109884 4157 385652 3110673 4220 63
10 381183 3110368 3986 381630 3110673 4016 30
11 390014 3107879 4637 390020 3107934 4637 0
12 369038 3112419 4936 369018 3112644 5018 82
Average shift = 62.41m
14
Lower extreme in 1988
Legend
GPS location
Snow and glacier
Bare land
Water
Figure 2. Shrinkage of Kimjung glacier in 12 years (from 1988 to 2000)
15
Figure 3. Snow and forest covers in LNP in 1988 (left) and 2000 (right)
16
Kimjung glacier is the source of water in Kimjung River which is a tributary of Langtang
River. Changes in the glacial extent have influence on river run-off; this fact is important
to consider while planning future strategies of power generation. Using the float method
of measurement, the study team estimated the river discharge in Kimjung River to be 1.5
m3/s.
The results based on a recent study by ICIMOD (Bajracharya et al., 2007) have also
predicted that the retreating glaciers of LNP are likely to form glacial lakes. The glacial
lakes pose potential threat of GLOF. The study team also observed a glacial lake at
Lirung which can turn into a major threat if the current rate of glacier retreat continues.
Adaptation Strategy:
i) Setting up early warning system, although difficult to implement, is the best

option to save life and property from potential GLOF disaster. Experience of
early warning system at Tso Rolpa indicates that the local ownership and local
initiatives are essential for sustainability of such a system. Also, instead of
using electricity based warning system, the hand operated warning system can
be more appropriate and long-lasting, given the level of technology at LNP.
ii) Preparing flood hazard map with the involvement of local community and
application of GIS tools can be a good method of convincing the inhabitants of
the hazard prone area to resettle at safer places.
(b) Access of the local residents to the freshwater sources
The local residents of LNP get freshwater from springs, rivers and lakes. Most of the
people depend on springs for their daily water needs. There are numerous springs in the
study area. Some of the springs are still full of water, while in several springs the amount
of water is either decreasing or have completely dried. With the support from local key
informants, the study team located several springs in the study area that has gone dry in
the last ten years. In general the distance to new sources of freshwater from the
settlements is increasing resulting in higher cost for accessibility.
The operators of local private water supply system, for example, the Himalayan Spring
Water (P) Ltd. are also facing similar situations of gradually drying spring. This situation
perhaps arose because in the past the gradual snowmelt used to recharge the groundwater
whereas the rapid snowmelt will increase the river flow in the wet season and decrease
17
the groundwater recharge. The groundwater recharge is the source of water at the springs.
This phenomenon of too much water when people do not need much water (in the wet
season) and too little water when people need it (in the dry season) creates an imbalance
in demand and availability of water, thus reducing the access of the local residents to the
fresh water sources.
Local residents at Chandanbari informed that the distance to fetch drinking water from
nearby sources is increasing. They put forth the view that water sources were only at 2
minute walking distance 20 years back which increased to 5 minute walking distance 10
years back and now the average distance is at 10 minutes distance.
Around the Gosaikunda area, however, the study team did not find noticeable change in
water level of the lakes. The Figure 4 below depicts the spatial coverage and distribution
of Gosaikunda and associated lakes both in 1988 and 2000. The map has been produced
by classifications of the satellite images from 1988 and 2000 (both taken in October).
Analysis of the maps did not show signification reduction in the areas of 7 lakes (Fstat =
0.0509 < Fcrit = 4.7472, df = 1,12 and p = 0.8252 at 5% level of significance) as
mentioned in the Table 3 below.
Table 3. Coverage of Gosaikunda and associated lakes in 1988 and 2000

S.N. Water bodies Area (ha) in 1988 Area (ha) in 2000 Change in Area(ha)
1. Gosaikunda 12.25 12.11 0.14
2. Bhairavkunda 22.85 22.27 0.58
3. Ragatkunda 1.90 1.42 0.48
4. Amakunda 4.21 4.59 -0.38
5. Lamukunda 17.43 15.16 2.27
6. Rajakunda 4.98 3.01 1.97
7. Naukunda 8.39 7.04 1.35
At the Gosaikund area, the population density is still low and the water demand is less
than the abundant supply from the Gosaikunda Lake which is recharged naturally from
groundwater.
Adaptation strategy:
Since most of the springs are still full of water during wet season, community
managed storage ponds at central locations in the settlements can be a practical
adaptation strategy for the solution of increasing distance to freshwater sources. Using
PVC pipes, water can be collected at the storage ponds in the wet season for use in the
18
dry season, with mechanism to prevent the water from turning anoxic. The pond
should be properly constructed and lined to prevent leakage.
The rainwater harvesting can be another economical, practical and appropriate

adaptation strategy to deal with the problem of increasing distance to water sources.
The rainwater collection tanks can be provided to the local residents at subsidized
price to attract them towards this simple technology.
19
Figure 4. Gosaikunda and associated lakes in 1988 and 2000
20
(c) Air temperature
Globally air temperature is gradually rising. The available meteorological data from
DHM show consistently positive trend of rising air temperature in Nepal at the rate of
about 0.06 0C per decade. The effects of the air temperature change are higher in the high-
altitude areas, as per the recent study of ICIMOD. Analysis of temperature data from
Dhunche (1982 m asl) and Langtang (3920 m asl) stations (that respectively represent
lower and higher altitude areas of LNP) divulged significantly positive relations for
temperature rise against time. The maximum daily (i.e. monthly extreme) and mean
monthly temperatures (analyzed for summer) are in increasing trend at both the stations
and the values are higher than the national figure. Since the maximum temperature
normally occurs from June to September, the available temperatures data were analyzed
for these months. The trends of monthly extreme maximum temperatures and mean
monthly temperatures in the last 18 years (from 1987-2004) at the high altitude
metrological station in Langtang are shown in the Figures 5a and 5b respectively.
Assuming a linear trend in variation of temperatures, the rate of annual increase in
monthly extreme (maximum) temperature (°C) at Langtang during June, July, August and
September was found to be 0.14, 0.16, 0.17 and 0.15 (°C) respectively (Figure 5a).
0
Extreme maximum temperatures ( C) in June 0
Extreme maximum temperatures ( C) in July
18 18
y = 0.1481x - 281.61 y = 0.1646x - 313.77
17
16
R2 = 0.135 17
R2 = 0.3853
16
15
14 15
Temp.
Temp.
13 14
12
13
11
12
10
9 11
8 10
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
Year Year
0 0
Extreme maximum temperatures ( C) in August Extreme maximum temperatures ( C) in September
19 17
18 y = 0.176x - 336.7 16 y = 0.1517x - 289.28
17 R2 = 0.3738 R2 = 0.3385
15
16
14
Temp.
Temp.
15
14 13
13
12
12
11
11
10 10
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
Year Year
Figure 5a. Extreme maximum temperatures in the last 18 years (from 1987-2004) at
the high altitude metrological station in Langtang
Similarly, the mean monthly temperature was found to increase annually at the rate of
0.17, 0.14, 0.16 and 0.16 (°C) during June, July, August and September respectively
(Figure 5b).
21
0 0
Mean monthly temperatures ( C) in June M e an monthly te mpe rature s ( C) in July
14 13
y = 0.1406x - 271.98 y = 0.1467x - 283.36
12
12
R2 = 0.1779 R2 = 0.2929
10 11
8 10
Temp.
Temp.
6 9
4 8
2 7
0 6
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
Year Year
0 0
Mean monthly temperatures ( C) in August Mean monthly temperatures ( C) in September
13
y = 0.1677x - 325.5 10
12 y = 0.1621x - 315.93
R2 = 0.4213
11 9 R2 = 0.4978
10
Temp.
Temp.
9
7
8
6
7
6 5
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
Year Year
Figure 5b. Mean monthly temperatures in the last 18 years (from 1987-2004) at the
high altitude metrological station in Langtang
The trends of daily maximum temperatures at Dhunche in the same months (July to
September) are shown in the Figure 5c. If linear trends be assumed, the relations give
inference that the daily maximum temperature is increasing annually at Dhunche by 0.11,
0.14, 0.15 and 0.22 (°C) respectively in June, July, August and September (Figure 5c). If
the present trend continues, the daily maximum temperatures (°C) at Dhunche in months
of June, July, August and September in the year 2050 will be around 30, 32, 32 and 35,
respectively. Based on the perception of the local residents, the temperature is gradually
increasing in the study area.
Trend of Maximum Daily Temperature at Dhunche Trend of Maximum Daily Temperature at Dhunche
(June) (July) y = 0.152x - 279.94
y = 0.1114x - 198.48
R2 = 0.3658 R2 = 0.6869
Temperature (oC)
Temperature (oC)
32 32
27 27
22 22
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
22
Trend of Maximum Daily Temperature at Dhunche Trend of Maximum Daily Temperature at Dhunche
(August) (September) y = 0.235x - 446.79
y = 0.1537x - 283.45
R2 = 0.5035 R2 = 0.6177
Temperature (oC)
Temperature (oC)
32 32
27 27
22 22
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
Figure 5c. Trends of maximum daily temperatures at Dhunche
One of the consequences of the rise in air temperature is the increased presence of house
flies and mosquitoes in settlement areas.
Another consequence of the rise in air temperature is the decline in snow fall or rapid
melting of snow once it is on the ground. Based on the results of the questionnaire survey,
the study team found that the incidence of snow fall in various parts of LNP has
decreased in the last 20 years. The local respondents informed that lower reaches of LNP
used to get snow fall frequently, but in the last decade snowfall frequency has reduced
drastically. Moreover, the events of extreme snowfall are reported to occur towards the
end of winter season in increasing frequency in the last decade. The noticeable change in
snow fall pattern in the LNP is potentially an indication of the effect of climate change.
Up to now, the effect of perceived changes in air temperature on the livelihood of the
local residents of LNP is not high. However, the effect may be more pronounced in
the future, as shown in Figure 4. The following steps may be needed to be adapted in
the future to cope with the changes in air temperature.
i) Construction of residential houses with insulated walls; insulation material can
be locally available biological materials
ii) Community leaders can be trained to match the agro-meteorological
parameters (average air temperature, soil temperature, humidity, crop water
requirement) and its relation with the seeding, cropping and harvesting times.
Based on the changes in these parameters the agriculture patterns need to be
adjusted.
iii) Use of mosquito net and food covering nets can prevent people and food items
from the problems of mosquito and flies.
23
iv) Timely weather forecasting especially on the possibilities of ill events of
snowfall, storm and rainfall should be carried out at local level through FM
radio as an attempt to early warning system and precautionary measures so
that people get enough time to develop strategies to protect themselves, their
grain, livestock, etc.
(d) River stage and discharge
River stage is one of the critical indicators related to the freshwater of an area. The river
stage (elevation of free water surface above an arbitrary datum) in the study area is
apparently decreasing. However, the decrease in river stage in the study area cannot
directly be associated with climate change primarily because there are other competing
factors responsible for the drop in river stage, namely (a) the sand and gravel extraction
from the river bed, and (b) the diversion of river water for hydropower production. The
construction boom in the LNP has resulted in extraction of construction materials from
the river beds. There are several micro-hydropower projects inside the LNP; these
projects are run-of-river types but they divert river flow and release the water
downstream. Hence at particular river stretch the river stage is lowered.
Box 1: Energy production in dry seasons from Chilime Hydropower Project
Energy production during dry season in the years 2060, 2061 & 2062 BS was 9-10 MW
Energy production during dry season in the year 2064 BS was 15-16 MW
Energy production during dry season in the year 2065 was again 9-10 MW
Design flow of the Chilime Hydropower is 7.5 m3/sec
Source: Prahlad Chaudhary (Plant Manager, Chilime Hydropower)
Extreme variation in river flow can have

dire consequences to the overall
environment of an area. Excessive temporal
variation can also result in negative impact.
The officials at the local Chilime
hydropower project informed that the river
flow in dry seasons (November to May) has
significantly increased in the last decade.
Figure 6: Discharge measurement in This assertion is supported by the increased

Langtang River at Pairo electricity production during the dry-seasons
at the local hydropower plant (Box 1). The increase in river flow during dry-seasons is a
24
direct consequence of rising atmospheric temperature that results in increasing quantity of
snow-melt. A spot measurement of discharge was made by the study team in Langtang
River at Pairo using the surface velocity (float) method (Figure 6). The river discharge
was found to be 14.73 m3/s.
Since limited data (from 120
100
1994 to 1999) is available
Discharge
80
from DHM on mean daily 60
discharge (m3/sec) of 40
Langtang River (station no. 20
0
446.2 at Shyaprubesi), the 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999
April May June July

3
data is insufficient to Figure 7: Maximum daily discharge (m /s) in
Langtang River at Shyafrubesi
evaluate the trend of river
discharge (see Figure 7). The key informants’ interview, however, indicated that the river
flow has decreased significantly at several locations in LNP. One consequence of reduced
water flow in the streams is that one local micro-hydropower plant has already stopped
operation due to too low discharge.
i) Relocation of the headworks of the micro-hydropower plants can be a good
solution.
ii) A cascade of small check dams along the rivers, especially on the sloppy
terrain, and a series of small depressions connected to the rivers will be useful
measures to subside the water current. This attempt will also help to increase
the groundwater recharge and reduce the peak flow values. Such temporary
storage of water assists in ascertaining consistent power production from
micro-hydropower plants and reliable supply of water for irrigation and water
supply projects. However, this strategy can initially be expensive.
(e) Rainfall and surface flow
The analyses of available rainfall data of DHM from 1972 to 2006 for the local
meteorological stations at Dhunche and Tumure have shown that statistically non-
significant (p-value: 0.26 for Timure and 0.82 for Dhunche) but positive relations
25
(increasing trend) do exist for the rainfall over time (see Figure 8). This trend of rainfall
can be associated with atmospheric warming as the analyses of temperature data have also
shown positive trend over time.
Total annual rainfall pattern at Dhunche Total annual rainfall pattern at Tim ure
1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500
800 1200 1600 2000

y = 1.5964x - 1244.6 y = 6.9767x - 12981
R2 = 0.0018 R2 = 0.0383
Total rainfall (mm)

Rainfall (mm)
400
0
1970 1980 1990 2000 1970 1980 1990 2000
Year Year
Figure 8: Rainfall pattern at Dhunche and Timure VDCs of Rasuwa district
The increasing amount of rainfall aggravates surface runoff and soil erosion by physical
actions. During and immediately after a rainfall event a part of the precipitation infiltrates
into the ground and the remaining flows over the surface as runoff. One of the important
factors affecting the water flow is the abundance of surface vegetation. The study team
noticed that the vegetation cover in the study area is steadily decreasing and is evident
from several patches of deforested areas. One of the factors causing reduction in
vegetation cover is the deliberate setting of fire by the local residents, sometimes to cover
up the traces of endangered wildlife after poaching in and around the park. Further,
building of construction industries inside LNP is influencing forest degradation directly or
indirectly through the demands for forest products such as timber, stones and sand for
construction. The decline in vegetation cover has resulted in increased surface flow,
which in turn resulted in increased incidences of gully formation and soil degradation.
The study team observed several incidences of gully erosion in the area.
i) Fuel efficient stoves should be promoted.

ii) Briquettes can be used instead of fire wood. However, an awareness program
is necessary to switch people’s habit from the use of firewood to briquettes.
iii) Biogas plants (from cattle dung) should be promoted to reduce firewood
pressure on forests
iv) Agro-forestry practice with the plantation of multipurpose tree species should
be promoted. This can be accomplished through demonstration (pilot) projects
26
where the local residents can be made aware on how timber and firewood can
be obtained without degrading the natural forest cover.
(f) River Sedimentation

There are many evidences of newly developed landslides and gully formation in the LNP.
Each of these incidences results in increased sedimentation load in the local rivers. The
landslides and gully erosion are partly due to the deforestation, excessive extraction of
sand and boulders from the river bed, forest fire (decrease in vegetation cover), rampant
constructions, and the toe cutting of the hill for construction of the roads and buildings.
The study team observed heavy sediment load in Langtang River during a rainfall event.
i) The tax revenue from the extraction of sand and boulder from the river bed
should be diverted back to constructing check dams, and increasing the
vegetative cover.
ii) The native vegetations found along the river banks should be promoted to
reduce river bank erosion and river sedimentation. Plants like Bamboo/
Nigalo, Napier and Salix that have proven to be effective in preventing river
bank erosion can be planted at the weaker parts of the river banks.
3.2 Vulnerabilities of biological diversity and adaptation

measures
Global warming has significant impact on many floral and faunal elements that survive in
a narrow geographical range and are adapted to specific microhabitat. Impacts of climate
change are more perceptible at higher elevations if keen observations are made. Previous
studies have shown that native biological components of the Himalayas are highly
vulnerable to the current trend of climate change. This study, focused mainly on Pika and
Apollo butterfly species, has utilized the results of previous study as the baseline to
compare with the data from present study. The results of the previous and the present
study are described below.
Previous studies on Ochotona species

(References: Khanal and Shrestha, 2000; Khanal, unpublished data)
Three Individuals of Royle’s Pika (Ochotona roylei) were noticed in Langtang valley at
2800 m near Lama Hotel area in a mesic moss forest with rhododendron trees. These
27
were burrowing forms of Royale’s Pika furnished with developed and powerful claws for
burrowing tree bases. They were eating small grasses in their home range areas.
In another encounter, four individuals were again observed at Kyangjin village (3920 m).
These were talus dwelling Pika with 3 individuals of Ochotona roylei and 1 of Ochotona
macrotis. Talus dwelling Pika live in rock piles and stone crevices, hence their claws are
weakly developed.
The above observations were made from 4 to 8 June, 2006 and no publication has been
made on the study. The team was led by Dr. T. Yasunaga, a JICA volunteer, who was
working at Natural History Museum.
Further exploration of Pika was made in Gosainkund area in June, 1999 (Khanal and
Shrestha, 2000). The study was exciting as 81 individuals of Pikas, involving both
Ochotona roylei and O. macrotis, were counted. This included sighting of 6 individuals of
Ochotona roylei at Cholang Pati (3585 m), 70 individuals (in transect of 1.5 km length) at
Lauri Bina (4000 m at the topmost ridge) and 5 individuals, comprising three Ochotona
roylei and two O. macrotis, at Gosainkund lake area. Thirty five hay-piles, that were
unoccupied by Pikas, were also noticed and was confirmed from the fresh and old pellets
of the species. The observed individuals were representative of different stages of life
development and ranged from juvenile to mature age classes. Of the total observation, 15
individuals were Ochotona macrotis with paler body and rounded ears.
Present study on Ochotona species

A pair of Roylei Pika (see Figure
9) was encountered at an altitude
of 2900 m near Lama Hotel in
the route to Kyangjin. The two
individuals were burrowing
Pikas that inhabit the mesic
forest of moss and
rhododendrons. In previous
study (Khanal, unpublished

Figure 9. Roylei Pika from LNP
data), observations of Roylei
28
Pika were made at the lowest altitudinal limit of 2800 m. But present study neither
revealed any pellet deposition nor any individuals of Pika around the 2800 m even though
habitat condition was similar as to the previous study of 2006.
Another six individuals (comprising 4 Ochotona roylei and 2 Ochotona macrotis) were
observed near Khimjin glacier (4299 m). However, no sign of Pika were seen at Kyangjin
and adjoining areas.
The survey made at Gosainkund region revealed three individuals of Royle’s Pika
roaming around the bushes of Cholang Pati area (3585 m). Above Lauri Bina (3950 m) up
to the Ganesh-Gaura Ridge (4000 m) seven individuals of Pikas, two Ochotona macrotis
and rest Ochotona roylei were observed. These were all talus dwellers with weakly
developed claws. At Gosainkund lake (4380 m) subsequent sightings of 10 individuals
were made, four of which were Ochotona macrotis and six Ochotona roylei.
Pikas use various species of plants for their food. As noticed in this study, flower of
Primula, grasses and tender moss species were found to be their major food items. The
habitat of forest dwelling Pika represents an association of various plant species (see
Annex 3) including Pedicularis fufuracea, Rumex nepalensis, Euphorbia wallichii, Salix
denticulate, Berberis aristata and grasses. Tree species such as Abies spectabilis, Pinus
wallichii, Juniperus spp, Quercus semicarpifolia and Acer pectinatum were also observed
in the habitats of Pika. The open and grassy part where Pika extends its home range
includes vegetations like Anemone obtusiloba, Ranunculus hirtillus, Geranium
wallichiana, Piptanthus nepalensis and Catoneacter microphyllus. Associated faunal
species in the habitat includes Common Leopard, Wild Boar, Himalayan Civet, Matins,
Squirrels, field rats, many species of birds and butterflies.
Compared to forest dwelling Pikas, the talus dwellers have very limited food choices.
They were seen feeding upon herbs such as Gentiana and Primula species. Other plant
species in the habitat of talus dwellers include Pedicularis megalintha, Bistorta
amplexicauta, Koenigia nepalensis, Potentilla microphyla, Coridalis, Aster, Potentilla
species etc. A previous study (Khanal and Shrestha, 2000) also reported the same
vegetation types and no changes were noticed in this study. Being a protected area, the
habitat is not much disturbed and is still similar as noticed in previous study.
29
Remarks on habitat and abundance of Pika: Based upon the previous and present
data, the habitat shift of Royle’s Pika was confirmed near Lama Hotel. Altitudinal shift in
the habitat by 100 m (from 2800 m asl to 2900 m asl) was observed in this study. Since
Ochotona roylei and O. macrotis were seen at 4299 m near Khimjin glacier and none
were found at Kyangjin (but 3 individuals observed in previous study, 2006), this
comparison based on previous and present abundance clearly indicates a shift in the
habitats of Pika at different localities. This may be inferred to the impact of climatic
changes.
Population of Pika within 1.5 km stretch from Lauri Bina (3900 m) to the Ridge (4000 m,
in the route to Gosainkund) is declining drastically. In previous study (Khanal and
Shrestha 2000), total count (both O. roylei and O. macrotis) in the route was more than 70
individuals while the present study revealed only 7 individuals. At Gosainkund area (4380
m), 10 individuals were sighted among which four were O. macrotis and six were O.
roylei. In 1999, just five individuals were observed in this area in which two were O.
roylei and 3 were O. macrotis. This study showed an increasing population of Pika
around Gosainkund and declining at Lauri Bina (3800 m) to the Ridge (4000 m) area.
This observation on increasing population around Gosainkund area was also supported by
the local hotel owners.
Shifting up of habitat of Pika was a remarkable fact noticed during the field survey.
Figure 10 below shows the maps of distribution of Pika’s habitat (based on previous and
present study). The variables used to delineate the habitat of Pika are basically altitude
and land cover types. The GIS analysis of the satellite image revealed that the habitat of
Pika has shrunk from 80275.25 ha in 1999 to 75480.50 ha in 2008.
30
Figure 10. Past (1999) and present (2008) habitats (in light green) of Pika in LNP
31
Previous study on Parnassius butterflies
(Reference: Khanal et al, 2002 and Khanal, 2006)
A study conducted in June, 1999 around Gosainkund area (Khanal, 2000) on behalf of
Natural History Museum provided a glimpse of big population of Parnassius hardwickei
(Common Blue Apollo) at Dhimsa village (3002 m) below Chandanbari (3250 m). Two
individual specimens were collected to re-confirm them at species level. Its next
population was observed at Lauri Bina (3900 m); there also two specimens were
collected. The study concluded that Parnassius butterflies were distributed in the area
above 3000 m altitudinal, sometime even extending above 5000 m.
One more study was conducted in June, 2006 for Langtang Valley (Khanal, unpublished)
and was limited to Kyangjin (3900 m) only. Though the area from Langtang village (3410
m) to Kyangjin meadow represents suitable habitats with preferred food plants for
Parnassius (Apollo), yet we could not sight a single individual during the survey that
lasted for 10 days.
Present study on Parnassius butterflies
One Parnassius epaphus and five Parnassius hardwickei were seen at 4200 m of Khimjin
glacier. These were freshly emerged specimens and were bright with distinct spots and
markings (see Figure 11 below). The life cycle of Parnassius hardwickei represents more
than two successive generations (multivolatine). The sub species robertsi of Parnassius
epaphus observed at LNP is an endemic subspecies. No individuals of Parnassius species
were seen at Dhimsa (3002 m asl) where the species was spotted in 1999. Five specimens
of Parnassius hardwickei were sighted at 4000 m near Gosainkund and more
observations were made around.
This species has been reported in the area year round except during extreme colds.
However, it was realized from the study that the butterflies are now emerging earlier than
noticed before. This issue needs to be verified by undertaking further research and
gathering time series data for at least 10 years. Change in reproductive behavior of
butterflies can be expected (growth rate becomes faster) due to warming of atmosphere
that would eventually lead to the emergence of adults earlier, even before the blooming of
their host plants. This phenomenon could cause butterflies to colonize alternative habitats
32
into the new climatic areas where they find suitable food plant. If they do not find
habitable plants they may become locally extinct. Shifts in distribution will occur, in part,
by range expansion at the cool, upper altitudinal limits, and by contractions at the warm,
lower altitudinal limits of the species’ range.
Remarks on habitat and abundance: The previous (June, 1999) and present study
(May, 2008) provides an interesting evidence of habitat shift of this butterfly from
Dhimsa (3002 m) to upper areas of Gosainkund. Not a single specimen of Parnassius
butterfly was noticed at Dhimsa this time which definitely had a good population in
previous study in June, 1999.
Habitat alteration (due to anthropogenic causes) at the Dhimsa area is almost negligible.
Although this study was conducted in the peak time of emergence, Parnassius butterflies
were not observed at Dhimsa, rather were sighted at upper elevations. This can be related
to climatic impact mainly the temperature rise which evidently forced their habitat to shift
upward to next preferred zones. The essence of temperature rise in LNP is evident from
Figure 5.
Based on expert knowledge of researchers on preferred habitats (land cover types) and
utilizing the digital elevation model of the terrain of LNP, maps for the distribution of
Parnassius butterfly was produced as shown in the Figure 12. The maps show a
signification reduction in the area of distribution because of the shift in dwelling grounds
of the species towards higher altitudes. The GIS analysis has shown that the habitat
suitable for the species was 131802 ha in 1999 that reduced to 87064 ha in 2008. This
shrinkage in habitat corresponds to the upwards shift of the lowest altitudinal limit from
3000m to 3250m asl.
Parnassius epaphus Parnassius hardwickei (is Precis iphita (is extending

declining in Langtang) to higher altitudes in LNP)
Figure 11. Parnassius and Precis butterflies

33
Next Butterfly: Precis iphita (Chocolate Pansy), a very common species, flies over
subtropical to temperate zones of the country. This butterfly has the maximum altitudinal
range of 1970 m (Smith, 1989). Very interestingly, this species was observed at 2328 m at
Rimche (2328 m) on the way to Ghod Tabela (3000 m). Two butterflies were recorded at
that place. Extension of altitudinal range to 2380 m from the already established range of
1970 m can also provide an evidence of ongoing climatic change in the region.
34
Figure 12. Past and present habitats of Parnassius butterflies
35
Adaptation strategies to minimize the impacts of climatic change on biodiversity
The following adaptation strategies are suggested to minimize the negative impacts of
climate change in LNP.
1. Management of human pressure: Population growth has direct impact on
valuable forest resources that are locally used mainly for constructions and cooking.
Although the core area of the park is well protected by army personnel, still human
pressure needs to be abated in the buffer zone and national forests around the
protected area. Formation of women groups in each village to control poaching and
illegal activities in forest would be a good asset for effective conservation of local
biodiversity. Such groups can play a crucial role in promoting conservation awareness
among local people, sharing the knowledge on potential threats of climate change and
developing strategies to cope with the adverse impacts. Promotion of alternative
energy sources such as solar panels and biogas can help to reduce the emission of
green house gases due to fossil fuel or wood burning that are the principal factors of
global warming. Hydropower also have good prospect for development but requires
detailed study. Wind mills and water mill could also be potential sources of energy
generation in the area.
Figure 13: water power used to rotate Figure 14: Chilime hydropower
Mane (a religious artifact) in a shrine project
2. Reforestation: Huge areas of the park have potential of afforestation and

reforestation. Some parts of the park have very thin forest coverage particularly near
Chandan Bari at the edge towards Cholang Pati and a small part at Dhimsa near Army
Barrack. Forest areas around Chandan Bari has already suffered from fire disasters in
2014 and 2062 BS, that area still require plantation work for rehabilitation.
Reforestation at such places could provide greenery and healthy environment besides
36
providing habitats for many invertebrates, butterflies and small mammals like Pikas
and rodents.
3. Sustainable planning for constructions: LNP is the closest Himalayan national

park to the capital, Kathmandu. Tourists with limited budget and time would normally
prefer to visit this place for trekking. Gosainkund Lake is another sacred place of
attraction for Hindus and Buddhist devotees. Many good hotels furnished with
modern facilities are established at these places. Management of tourist pressure
require sustainable planning for services such as improved trail, safe drinking water,
and lodging for specified number of tourists based on carrying capacity of hotels.
Government should put in place the regulatory provisions for expansion of hotels and
other environmentally detrimental activities. Proper attention should be paid to
minimize negative impacts of physical constructions mainly hotels and restaurants at
the environmentally prone sites like Gosainkund, Chandan Bari, Cholang Pati,
Dhimsa, Kyangjin, Lama Hotel area and Ghod Tabela.
In the recent years deforestation has increased causing threats to the habitat of
Parnassius butterflies and Pikas; both the species are found in almost the same
habitat. Construction of hotels is having significant impact on the habitats of the
species. So provision of impact assessment for any physical constructions is highly
important to understand before hand the possible impact on the wildlife habitats.
Considering the impacts of climate change and high human pressure, captive breeding
of Pika would be an appropriate attempt to conserve the species. Likewise, wild native
forage plants of such organisms need protection, discouraging human impact. An
effective regulation to garbage disposal is the next need of this place. Some micro-
habitats of Pika, especially at Kyangjin, were seen completely destroyed due the
rampant heavy garbage disposal.
5. Conservation education: Although local residents are aware of protected animals

and valuable floral components of the areas, they have little knowledge on small
mammals, invertebrates and lower plant groups. So, an effective conservation
education programs relating the local and global impacts of climate change on
biological diversity is necessary for sustainability of the resources. People should be
made aware that every tier of plants and animals are integral component of any
ecosystem and they are complementary to each other.
37
Conclusion
Climate change has shown gradual impact at this place. This was revealed from the field
observations and the remarks of local people based on their experiences. This study came
up with little information which was focused mainly upon butterflies and Pikas. Habitat
shift and observed population status of Pikas and butterflies were taken as the main
indicators to show that they are susceptible due to rising temperature in LNP. About 100
m shift of Pika’s habitat and disappearance of Parnassius butterflies at 3002 m elevation
and their observed population at higher elevations are the prime evidences to signify the
local impacts of climate change. Local inhabitant’s opinion to previous and current
situations also provided substantial data to this work. Local people also agreed that the
population of Pika has declined drastically compared to previous study made in June,
1999. These facts give some glimpse of limate change.
Chocolate Pansy butterfly (Precis iphita), a temperate species, was previously recorded
up to a maximum altitude of 1970 m (Smith, 1989). In this study, it was observed at 2328
meter at Rimche which lies en route to Langtang Valley. This can also be taken as a sign
of climatic impact.
Though good information was obtained in this short study, still large aspects remain
unexplored. It is advisable to extend such type of research at least for five years which
then can provide wide information and complete data to confirm the full spectrum of
impacts due to climate change on flora, fauna, water sources, and human livelihood.
3.3 Vulnerabilities of people’s livelihood and adaptation

measures
Impacts of climate change on some of livelihood components are more obvious than
others. From the field survey, it was found that climate change has affected the building
blocks of livelihood such as agriculture, water, and ecosystems/biodiversity to varying
extent. In informal interactions, local people stated obscure impacts based on speculation.
The major threats of climate change in LNP are scarcity of water for drinking and
irrigation, natural disaster like floods, landslides, soil erosion and deterioration of
agriculture productivity.
38
3.3.1 Impacts on different attributes of livelihood
a. Agriculture
Accompanied by tourism, agriculture is the major source of subsistence in the study area;
a large portion of the population is involved in agriculture and the agri-outputs are
basically consumed locally. Local agricultural is primarily dependent on rainfall and
mainly traditional crops, adapted to seasonal temperature regimes, are practiced. People
wait until warm rainy season (monsoon) to plant their major crops as the harsh cold
climate can support only limited varieties. Climate change, especially changes in amount
of rainfall, temperature, humidity and radiation, is likely to have great influence on agri-
production and emergence of insects, pests and diseases. Reduced moisture content of soil
during dry season and excessive soil erosion during rainy season resulting into decreasing
agricultural productivity is a matter of serious concern to the local farmers. Most of the
people in the area are depended on few crops, such as potato, millet, maize, barley,
buckwheat and wheat. The experience of local farmers on inadequate rainfall at required
time or heavy rainfall when not desired compounded with the incidences of new pests and
diseases have worried them for the food security. Respondents elucidated that lots of
productive lands are left barren every year due to lack of rainfall. Different types of
diseases in potato and wheat crops have newly appeared in the area and people urge this is
due to the increasing soil temperature. Wart disease in potato scientifically identified as
Synchytrium endobioticumm is one of the diseases observed. Out of the 42 respondent, all
(100%) mentioned that potato production has reduced as compared to a decade back.
Residents of Lama Hotel and Thangsap were of the opinion that per unit area production
of buckwheat has reduced in the last 15years.
Different climate induced disasters have direct impacts on local agricultural systems.
Every year floods and landslides directly affect crops and agricultural land. The frequency
of flood and landslide events are gradually increasing that are obviously deteriorating
land fertility by turning them to sandy fields. Out of the 42, 36 respondents said that
production has been decreasing due to soil erosion. 18 of the respondents said that
agricultural land turned to sandy field due to soil erosion.
The change in flowering season of Pendharkey (a native wild plant species) is noticed by
the residents of Thulo Syafru. According to them the flowering season for this plant is
39
Falgun (Feb-March) but since last 4-5 years it started flowering early, even in Shrawan
(July-August). They have strong belief upon climate change looking after this strange
phenomenon. Similar observation for apple is made by the locals. The usual season for
flowering of apple is Chaitra (March-April), but since last 4-5 years flowering is observed
even in Poush (Dec-Jan).
Agricultural system in LNP and its buffer zone is moderately affected by climate change;
however, significant impacts may not be clearly visible for decades unless there is
substantial damage due to catastrophes.
b. Water Resources
Water resources and hydropower are valuable assets of the study area. A number of
impacts on water resources and hydropower are rooted to rising temperatures. This
includes glacier retreat induced erratic variability in stream flow, and the potential threat
of glacial lake outburst floods (GLOF). GLOFs and other floods have potential to cause
significant loss of property including human settlements, hydropower and other
infrastructures. Any change in temperature and precipitation pattern is likely to alter the
hydrological cycle and water resources. Flash floods in the area are common due to high
intensity rainfall for short duration. As the area is geologically fragile excess water related
disasters such as landslide and downstream siltation is also common. Such disasters are
directly or indirectly affecting the water resources in the area. From the community
survey, it was found that landslide and floods are directly affecting drinking water and
local irrigation system. Out of the 42 respondents, 38 (89 %) said that landslides damaged
drinking water system by breaking down the pipes and silting the intake tank.
Depletion of groundwater table and drying up of water spring at some locations are
among the threats revealed by respondents. In the study area, water scarcity is going up
day by day. Out of 42 respondent, 35 (82%) said that the quantity of water in local springs
is declining. The water spring of Briddim -9 has already dried up five years back. Some
small ponds are also drying out.
A total of 94 % of the respondents mentioned that extreme summer temperatures are in

increasing trend, however, their response was not clear regarding the pattern of annual
rainfall. The evidence of rising temperature is also reflected by the analysis of time series
temperature data from local meteorological stations at Dhunche and Langtang (see Fig 5).
40
Locals at Kyanzin stated that the frequency of snowfall is decreasing and size of
hailstorm also reduced since last 4-5 years. Hoteliers at Singh Gompa also agreed with the
less snowfall and mentioned that snowfall is occurring late.
c. Forest and Biodiversity

It is generally agreed that biodiversity at a place depends on the quality of habitat and
level of human interference. At the field sites, evidence of forest floor runoff is common.
High intensity rainfall occurring for short durations leads to increased runoff in forest
floor because of poor infiltration into the soil. The erosion problem was more pronounced
in poorly stocked hill forests. Prolonged surface runoff would severely affect growth of
many broad-leafed forests. Regarding the problems related with pastures for the grazing
of domestic animals like yaks, horses and sheep, 39 (93 %) respondents said that they are
facing problems to graze their animals due to soil erosion. Further, they reported that the
grass production in the local pastures is declining in summer due to reduced soil moisture.
A total of 25 respondents (60%) said that natural or human induced disasters like
landslides and downstream siltation is seriously affecting forest growth. Local people,
however, are unaware of the fact that increased carbon dioxide concentration in the
atmosphere as a result of emissions from forest degradation (or fossil fuel burning) can
alter temperatures and rainfall amounts. The fluctuations in temperature and rainfall are
likely to affect plant growth and reproduction as too high temperature can cause heat
stress and pollen sterility in the plants. Hence biodiversity and crop production is highly
vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. Local crop production and high biodiversity
value is much dependent on hydrological cycle, catalyzed by orogenic barriers that help to
recharge soil water needed for plants’ nutrition and growth. These factors are intricately
linked in the study area.
A total of 40 respondents (94%) said that the number of Bandel (wild boar) is increasing
but the number of Bhaalu (black bear) is decreasing since last 4-5 years. Residents of
Gosaikunda said that the number of a small mammal namely Pika (Ochotona species) is
increasing since last 4-5 years, but the residents of Lauribina said about their number is
decreasing in the surrounding areas.
The likelihood that plant or animal species could be lost due to climate change is
uncertain. Because of their mobile characteristic, animals are generally at low risk
because they are able to move throughout the habitats that are more favorable. Plants, on
41
the other hand, are stationary, and must rely on dispersal of seeds from areas which are no
longer favorable to new areas resulting in a gradual shift in their natural ranges. The
colonizing plant specimens collected from the retreating glacier at Kimjung were
Euphorbia stracheyi Saxifraga spp., Ephedra gerardiana, Juncus thomsonii, Polygonum
paronychoides, Myricaria rosea, and Astragalus candollenus (see Annex 3).
Micoflora like wild mushrooms were also found to be playing an important role in the
subsistence of local poor people in seasons. Tamangs, a local ethnic group, are mushroom
lovers; socially they prefer to collect it from wild. During rainy season, local people use
to collect variety of mushrooms from nearby jungles and home yards. Mostly the
residents of Lama Hotel, Ghod Tabela, Thulo Syabru, Singh Gompa and Cholang Pati
consume varieties of wild mushrooms. A total of 16 (38%) respondents said that the
quantity of collection is declining; they mentioned that the abundance of a native species,
locally called Ola Shyamo (Laetiporus sulphureus), has significantly reduced.
d. Socio-economy
Disasters induced by climate change are gradually mounting up in LNP and bufferzone.
Hence livelihood of local people is continuously threatened. Local informants mentioned
that dwindling agricultural production (such as potato and wheat) has weakened their
economic condition as they are highly dependent on agriculture. Exploration of local
knowledge revealed that increased evapotranspiration due to higher temperatures and
decreased winter precipitation has brought increasing droughts in study area.
No vital disasters attributable to the impacts of climate change were observed in the upper
part of the national park, however, landslides were observed in the lower basin of
Ramchey and Betrabati. Landslides have caused migration in some cases to nearby
settlements. Disasters such as floods and landslides are annually affecting the rural
infrastructures such as roads, buildings, and other monuments.
Women in the area are primarily involved in the extraction of natural resources to provide
daily commodities to their family demands. The women are inheritably involved in
collection of water which is mainly utilized for drinking and washing purpose and
sometime in kitchen garden. Irrigation water, however, is obtained from natural sources
such as springs/ lakes or rain-fed agricultural practice is followed. Customarily, women
possess little assets to be self reliant, compared to men. So incase of affliction with
42
drought, heat waves, cold, floods and other climate change induced incidence, women are
more vulnerable.
Indeed, climate change impacts will affect the study area through a number of pathways,
including damages to hydropower, irrigation, pasture and domestic water usage. These
changes could place additional burdens on the development activities and livelihoods of
communities. Impacts on mountain environment due to climate change could also lead to
negative effect on tourism.
3.3.2 Community Adaptation Options

By nature people prefer developing resilience to adapt to climate induced impacts and
hence have adopted a wide range of indigenous strategies to cope with the risks. Still
losses due to climatic extremes are substantial, even increasing. The losses indicate that
adaptation measures are not sufficient or unsuccessful to tackle the risks. Some major
causes for unsuccessful adaptation measures were identified in this study. Respondents
during the household survey expressed that water scarcity, fragile geography and high
intensity rainfall are the basic reasons. Around 75% of the respondents mentioned that
plantation work has been unsuccessful in many cases due to the lack of water. Some 67%
of the respondent argued that weak geography causes faster deterioration of bio-
physiography. About 38% of the respondents stated that because of the high intensity
rainfall events, locally affordable adaptation measures did not work. Because of the weak
geography coupled with heavy rainfall and snowfall lasting for short durations and
uncontrolled grazing, the local adaptation measures especially from the efforts at
household level did not work to control landslide, floods, soil erosion and river-cutting.
Adaptation to environmental change is a fundamental human trait and is not a new

concept. Throughout the ages, human societies have shown a strong capacity for adapting
to different climatic changes, although not always successful. Existing community or
indigenous knowledge has not been fully tapped, nevertheless they are adapting measures
to tackle new changes that will enable them to be resilient to current and potential climate
induced hazards. Local people of the study area are adopting different strategies to cope
with the impacts on different parameters.
43
i. Agriculture
Loss of agricultural land and production is certain to adversely affect people’s livelihood
in the study area. At the community level, people are adapting to the impacts of climate
change, knowingly or unknowingly, and have developed extensive knowledge. To
minimize the impacts from landslide, they have started to conserve and promote forest,
undertaking controlled grazing practice on open access pasture, and safe channeling/
drainage of running water during the rainy period. They have found new varieties of
cabbage, wheat and potato (but only few people practiced new cultivar of potato) which
takes short period to harvest and need less amount of water.
ii. Water Resources

As other places, vulnerability of Langtang is highly associated with the changes in water
regime. In the study area, different types of adaptation measures were found to be adopted
by local community to reduce the immediate as well as long term impacts. Forest
conservation and plantation activities are specially enacted near the natural water sources.
Waste water from kitchen and harvested rain water is utilized in kitchen gardens for
irrigation, to cope with the problem of water shortage. Some people have started
harvesting rain water while most are collecting water from distance and storing in large
pot or drums for scarcity management.
3.3.4 Recommended adaptation options for livelihood sustenance

Climate induced disasters cannot be stopped but can be controlled. Accelerating climate
change is bringing more floods, droughts, extreme weather and unpredictable seasons.
Climate change has the potential to massively increase poverty and inequality, punishing
first, and most, the very people least responsible for greenhouse-gas emissions and
increasing their vulnerability to disaster.
If nature can not adapt to human aspirations then human should follow nature. Based on
the community and expert knowledge on adaptation options in the study sites, following
adaptation strategies have been suggested to increase the effectiveness:
• Increasing community awareness on significance of climate induced risks and
encouraging people participation in planning and conservation activities such as
plantation, construction of check dams, etc.
• Enhancing early warning systems (suitably at Ramche) for floods by installing
rain gauge stations and marking hazardous flood level. Process for regular
44
forecasting should be initiated so that local inhabitants have early information for
precautions.
• Promoting rain water harvesting for irrigation and livestock demands to
complement water scarcity.
• Introducing alternative species of cash crops (that still need to be identified) as
well as subsistence crops that can give yield in short duration and needs less
amount of water. It will minimize food scarcity and balance decreased production
of traditional crops.
• Implementation of participatory watershed conservation and afforestation
programs and strengthening the mechanisms for sustainable resource utilization
• Promoting mixed species forestry in afforestation programs to reduce traditional
reliance on one or two tree species (mainly coniferous spp). Suitability for
promotion of introduced species needs detailed study.
• Promotion of rotational grazing practice at the pastures to increase site
productivity; optimized foraging strategies, fertilization, mechanization and
improved livestock management would be beneficial.
• Planning and implementation of long term conservation strategies to support
livelihoods and assets of local people providing essential services like water,
greenery, forest products, etc.
• Provision of literacy programs, infrastructure, and access to reliable health care
are crucial for disaster mitigation, preparation, and response
• Promotion of alternative energy sources such as solar, biogas, wind mill and
hydropower and adoption of energy efficient tools such as improved cooking
stoves, bio-briquettes, etc can reduce fuel wood pressure on local forests.
• Promotion of apparatus to tackle the epidemics to warming atmosphere such as
problem of diarrhea due to increasing house flies and malaria due to increasing
mosquitoes.
Conclusions
The history and trend of existing bio-physical resources in and around Langtang National
Park clearly suggest that the mountain ecosystem and livelihoods impacts are a reality.
Low economic strength, inadequate infrastructure, low level of social development, lack
of institutional capacity, and a higher dependency on the natural resource base make the
area more vulnerable to harsh climatic attributes including extreme events. The
45
agricultural sector will face significant yield reduction thus independency on imported
food-grain and potato will future increase. Proper attention is utmost necessary to address
those all issues and consequences.
46
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Biol. Nauk 2:86-91.
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Climate Change on Mountain Ecosystems and Livelihoods. ICIMOD, Kathmandu.
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Kawamichi, T., 1971. Daily activities and social pattern of two Himalayan Pikas,
Ochotona macrotis and O. roylei, observed at Mt. Everest. J.Fac. Sci. Hokkaido
Univ., Japan, Ser. VI. Zool., 17:583-609.
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Khanal, B., Karki, J.B., Poudel, D.P. and Shrestha, K., 2002. Butterflies of Langtang.
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49
Annexes
Annex 1
Ochotona roylei (Ogilby 1839)
Royle’s Pika (Mouse hare, Linde Musa in Nepali)
Size: Head and body 6-8 inches (15-20 cm)
Description: The head, shoulder and fore parts of the body are bright chestnut colored,
becoming more vinaceous on the throat. The remaining part of the dorsal side is dark
grayish rufous. Ventral side is white to grayish white or dark gray. Ears of this
lagomorph are of moderate sizes and are sparsely haired.
Habitat: Royle’s Pika is characteristically associated with broken slopes or talus

(Kawamichi 1968). This species generally lives not below 2800 m in Nepal Himalayas. In
their forest habitat they prefer mesic situation specially the wet moss forest where
rhododendron, spruce and deodar trees are found.
Ecology: According to Smith et al (1990) density reached in Royle’s Pika population is

low and characteristic of other talus dwelling Pika. They may attain density of 12 / ha
(Kawamichi 1968).
The catching of food is weakly developed in this species, although they apparently are
more likely to construct haypiles than the Large Eared Pika (Ochotona macrotis)
(Kawamichi, 1971).
Reproduction: Litter size averages 3 (Abe 1971). The breeding season may extend from
late spring until late summer and one or two litters may be produced during this period
(Robert 1977). Apparently this animal first becomes reproductively active as yearlings.
Status: More common than other Pika species of Nepal. The population is declining due
to anthropogenic causes and climatic factors.
Ochotona macrotis (Gunther 1875)

Large Eared Pika
Description: This is a moderate sized Pika but larger than Royle’s Pika. The general
colour is pale brownish gray with an ochre tinge. The grayish colour is tinged with rufous
50
which is more marked during summer. In winter, dorsal color changes to pale gray with a
tinge of straw yellow. The belly is white to dirty white in both the seasons.
Habitat: This is a high altitude rock dwelling Pika which inhabits stationary rock scree in
open alpine areas and in spruce forests. The alpine desert inhabited by Large Eared Pika is
apparently lacking in snow most of the year (Ognev 1940). Its altitudinal range may
extend from 3500 m to 4000 m to as high as 6130 m (Thomas and Hinton 1922). The
distribution of Large Eared Pika is higher than Royle’s Pika.
Ecology: Populations remain relatively constant in size over time, although densities at
different location may range from six to eighteen animals per ha (Bernstein 1970). The
lack of snow found in their habitat apparently allows for year round foraging.
Reproduction: Litter sizes are small, like those of other talus dwelling Pikas with two to
three youngs (Abdusalyamov 1962). Usually two litters are conceived per year (Mitchell
1978) and in most populations, individual first breed as yearlings (Zimina 1968).
Status: No Threat so far. Less common than Roylei’s Pika. Population is declining in
Langtang National Park.
Annex 2
Parnassius hardwickei hardwickei Gray 1831

Common Blue Apollo
Size: Wing span 35-55 mm.
Description: Fore wing with the vein 6 and 7 from a point and origin of vein 10 far
removed, Upper side of the Fore wing with spots at the end of the cell and middle area.
Usually with red spot, not joined by dark band. Hind wing above usually without a red
spot at base of area 7. Marginal spots strongly developed, shaded with blue and centered
with white. Hind wing below with prominent red basal spots, the sub marginal spots
greenish. Creamy white background of the wings.
51
Habitat: Alpine meadows. This butterfly has exceptionally long flying period as well as
exceptional range of altitude.
Distribution: India, China, Pakistan, Nepal Himalayas (Smith 1989).
Altitudinal Range: 2800 m to 5200 m. Some times it comes down at 2700 m.
Status: This is a common Himalayan Apollo but its population is declining in Langtang
region.
Parnassius epaphus robertsii Oberthur 1879

Common Red Apollo
Size: Wing span: 38-50 mm
Description: Ground colour white with narrow marginal bands. Hind wing with red ocelli,
anal spot slightly dusted with red. Fringes of both wings distinctly chequered. Antennae
with black and white rings.
Habitat: Flies higher up than the former species. Very distinct species.
Distribution: Northern India, Bhutan, Tibet, Southest China, Nepal Himalaya, Pakistan
and Afganistan (Smith 1989).
Altitudinal range: 3760 m to 5300 m.
Status: Rare. This butterfly is represented by four subspecies in Nepal. Parnassius

epaphus robertsii is an endemic sub species to Langtang. Flies from May to November.
52
Annex 3
Colonizing plant species at the Kimjung Glacier
1. Euphorbia stracheyi
2. Saxifraga sp.
3. Ephedra gerardiana
4. Juncus thomsonii
5. Polygonum paronychoides
6. Myricaria rosea
7. Astragalus candollenus
Associate plants of Pika’s habitat at Lauribina
1. Rhododendron anthopogan
2. Juncus thomsonii
3. Potentilla fulgens
4. Anaphalis monocephala
5. Bistorta sp.
6. Bistorta macrophylla
7. Oxygraphis polypetala
8. Primula macrophylla
9. Primula denticulate
10. Aconitum sp
11. Androsace robusta
12. Anemone sp.
13. Cassope sp.
14. Pedicularis oederi
15. Iris sp.
16. Ephedra gerardiana
Associate plants of Pika’s habitat above Lama Hotel
1. Picea smithiana
2. Rhododendron arboreum
3. Cedrus deodara
4. Mosses
53

Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment

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Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment

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A study on

Vulnerability Assessment and Formulation of Climate Change

September 30, 2008

Socio-economic, Agro-forestry and Environment (SAFE) Concern is delighted and

The loss of biodiversity at genetic, species, or ecosystem levels is proceeding apace as a

• landslides, flash flood, erosion and increased frequency of avalanches

• harsh winter weather incidents causing loss of property

• reduced water flow in streams and springs

• reduced agricultural production

• damage of roof and walls of traditional mud houses

In Nepal, there is a scarcity of information on Himalayan wetlands making it difficult to

Nepal has expressed commitment through international conventions and treaties to

Description of the indicator species

1. To assess the vulnerabilities of existing socio-economic, environmental and

2. To identify adaptation measures and formulate strategies to build up resilience in

2.2 Vulnerability assessment

The methods adopted in the study are summarized as below:

• Analysis of rainfall, temperature and river discharge data from DHM

• Field measurements and collection of GPS coordinates

• Visual observation and photographic recording of critical parameters

• Collection of samples of indicator species (plants and butterflies)

• Analysis of satellite data and digital elevation model

• Key informant survey

• Focus group discussion

The methods by themes considered in the study are described as below:

2.2.1 Vulnerability assessment of fresh water system

2.2.3 Vulnerability assessment of local livelihood

A total of 42 households were surveyed at different settlements starting from Dhunche to

(a) Glacier retreat and GLOF

Snow and glaciers are the

Table 1. Land covers of LNP in 1988 and 2000

Figure 2. Shrinkage of Kimjung glacier in 12 years (from 1988 to 2000)

i) Setting up early warning system, although difficult to implement, is the best

(b) Access of the local residents to the freshwater sources

Table 3. Coverage of Gosaikunda and associated lakes in 1988 and 2000

The rainwater harvesting can be another economical, practical and appropriate

(d) River stage and discharge

Source: Prahlad Chaudhary (Plant Manager, Chilime Hydropower)

Extreme variation in river flow can have

Figure 6: Discharge measurement in This assertion is supported by the increased

Since limited data (from 120

Langtang River (station no. 20

April May June July

(e) Rainfall and surface flow

800 1200 1600 2000

Total rainfall (mm)

Figure 8: Rainfall pattern at Dhunche and Timure VDCs of Rasuwa district

i) Fuel efficient stoves should be promoted.

(f) River Sedimentation

3.2 Vulnerabilities of biological diversity and adaptation

Previous studies on Ochotona species

Present study on Ochotona species

study (Khanal, unpublished

(Reference: Khanal et al, 2002 and Khanal, 2006)

Present study on Parnassius butterflies

Parnassius epaphus Parnassius hardwickei (is Precis iphita (is extending

Figure 11. Parnassius and Precis butterflies

2. Reforestation: Huge areas of the park have potential of afforestation and

3. Sustainable planning for constructions: LNP is the closest Himalayan national

5. Conservation education: Although local residents are aware of protected animals

3.3 Vulnerabilities of people’s livelihood and adaptation

A total of 94 % of the respondents mentioned that extreme summer temperatures are in

Colonizing plant species at the Kimjung Glacier

Associate plants of Pika’s habitat at Lauribina

Associate plants of Pika’s habitat above Lama Hotel