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The Biden Push Button To West Asia's Diplomatic Resets: Editorial
The Biden Push Button To West Asia's Diplomatic Resets: Editorial
The Biden Push Button To West Asia's Diplomatic Resets: Editorial
Counting the COVID toll in India
In order to understand the pandemic’s extent, a districtwise estimation is the best bet to arrive at a national total
leased its estimates that put the proach for defi ning a baseline us to identify districts with an ac
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global toll of COVID19 deaths by would be estimation of mean and ceptable quality of registration
T
he arrest of K. Raghu Ramakrishna Raju, an MP 6,54,395 (only second to the Unit to estimate “excess” deaths. There dataset from the authorities and
from Andhra Pradesh, on the grave charge of se ed States with an estimated 0.9 China, which together constitute a are other statistical approaches are hopeful of being able to gener
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dition, is yet another instance of the misuse of ast year, in these columns, I million) which is about three times third of the world population, are which use diff erent data distribu ate national estimates in the next
wrote about the many chal higher than the reported offi cial fi currently in category three, and tion assumptions to defi ne a base few months.
the provision relating to exciting “disaff ection” against
lenges in estimating deaths gure (https://bit.ly/3omaKtg). unless we manage to provide some line. This analysis should be done
the government. The police in diff erent States have due to COVID19 in India (https:// The lower number of reported source of usable data, India will by age and sex on a weekly or A continuing process
been invoking sedition, an off ence defi ned in Section bit.ly/2Rs4hAZ). While the chal deaths does not imply under have to be content with an esti monthly basis and correlated to Our experience with an estimation
124A IPC, against critics of the establishment and pro lenges remain, the need for esti counting, deliberate or otherwise. mate generated by an external the peaks of the epidemic. of deaths in past infl uenza pan
minent dissenters. It is not surprising that Mr. Raju, a mating COVID19 deaths globally Even if there had been no underre agency using an indirect ap My team analysed data from the demics shows that diff erent agen
vocal detractor of A.P. Chief Minister Y.S. Jagan Mohan and in India to understand the porting of COVID deaths in a coun proach. Civil Registration System (CRS) of cies come up with diff erent esti
Reddy, is sought to be prosecuted. However, his arrest magnitude of the pandemic is still try, this ratio is likely to be above district Faridabad in Haryana, mates which leads to confusion
there. Since direct counting of CO one as excess deaths include not Data for India which has been reporting 100% re among policy makers and the pu
is unwarranted, considering that he is being accused of
VIDdeaths is problematic, the ap only those that are directly caused So, what do we know about the gistration of deaths in the past few blic. These are both due to data
only speechbased off ences relating to his diatribe proach most commonly used is by COVID19 and likely to be re COVID19 mortality in India? Data years. We found that 7% higher limitations and diff erences in sta
against his party leader and CM. It has predictably, and the “excess” death approach ported but also those where from Kerala, which is among the deaths have been reported in 2020 tistical approaches. The longterm
not without justifi cation, invited charges of political which attributes all deaths beyond deaths occurred due to other dis States with a very good vital regis as compared to 201619, with a 17% way out for countries is to address
vendetta. Even if one were to accept at face value the what is considered “normal” for eases, either due to a lack of care tration system, showed that there increase in deaths above 60 years. the data limitations while academ
prosecution’s claim that his speeches stoked hatred that area and time to COVID19. It or as a consequence of COVID19. has been a decline in deaths in By applying wellaccepted statisti ics work on refi ning their ap
against communities — he had referred to alleged ram includes deaths directly caused by It is very diffi cult to tease out these 2020 as compared to previous cal techniques, we found that the proaches.
COVID19 as well as deaths indi proportions. We might have a bet years (https://bit.ly/3eTBaj3). period of excess deaths correlated There will be more estimates of
pant conversion activities in the State — and attracted
rectly caused due to the impact on ter sense if we look at causespecif While it will need a closer look, with the pandemic peaks in the COVID deaths in the near future
prosecution under Section 153A or Section 505, was his access to care for other diseases ic deaths. But that kind of data is underregistration of all deaths districts. Our range of estimates and the numbers will keep chang
arrest necessary? These off ences attract a prison term during the pandemic and the lock still more diffi cult to get. due to the pandemic is a possibili for excess deaths by diff erent ap ing till some sort of a consensus
of only three years and, under the Arnesh Kumar ruling down. ty. proaches resulted in a ratio of re emerges. However, putting up a
(2014) of the Supreme Court, there is no need to arrest a WHO classifi cation Data released by the Municipal ported to excess death estimate to number which is contested and
person for an off ence that invites a prison term of seven Global estimates released The World Health Organization Corporation of Greater Mumbai, be between 1.8 to 4. This is not ve debated is still good as it propels
years and less. Further, even sedition, which allows a While offi cial or unoffi cial esti classifi es countries into three cate shows 22% excess deaths during ry diff erent from that reported by people to improve that estimate.
mates are available for some coun gories based on their data availa 2020 in Mumbai region (https:// the IHME, though its ratio includ The second wave has been dea
maximum sentence of life imprisonment, also pre
tries, two estimates have been re bility for COVID19 excess death bit.ly/3hwwHEx). An analysis of ed part of the second wave. This dlier, and undercounting is more
scribes an alternative jail term of three years. leased globally. Based on the estimation. First are those coun data from a panel of 2,32,000 hou estimate should be read in the con likely to have occurred as the pan
Mr. Raju has alleged illtreatment while in CID custo World Mortality Dataset — the lar tries that have good data available seholds maintained by the Centre text that 80% of the population for demic has spread to rural areas,
dy. The Supreme Court has directed that he be exa gest international dataset of all and excess death estimation is for Monitoring Indian Economy Faridabad is urban and the sero and when access to testing has
mined at the Army hospital in Secunderabad in neigh cause mortality encompassing 89 possible (most countries in the Pvt Ltd (CMIE) found that deaths logical survey in October 2020 been adversely aff ected and many
bouring Telangana. His bail petition is likely to be taken countries — researchers estimated above mortality dataset). Second from all causes between May and showed a 31% seropositivity. deaths are occurring outside hos
up later this week. It is unedifying to note that the CID excess mortality and reported that is the group of countries whose da August 2020 numbered almost It is not appropriate to extrapo pitals. Refi ning our approaches us
has also named in the FIR, two television channels to it exceeded the number of report ta, though not good, is acceptable twice as many as compared with late these estimates to India as ing the fi rst wave in 2020 would
ed COVID19 deaths in these coun for use through some process of the same period in past years even within India, there are enor enable a much better estimation of
which he gave interviews. While the legal process will
tries by over 1.6 times. It also said harmonisation or adjustment for (https://bit.ly/3wepv4m). mous diff erences in the severity the deaths in subsequent waves.
take its course, it is once again time for a refl ection on that this ratio is likely to be conser incompleteness leaving the third These are crude estimates and timing of the epidemic and its
the need and relevance of the off ence of sedition, a co vative as undercounting is likely to category of countries where the based on the number of extra health system capacity. Thus, Dr. Anand Krishnan is Professor of
lonialera provision used to imprison people for politi be much higher in countries data on deaths are not available or deaths reported as compared to combining data at higher levels is Community Medicine at the All India
cal writings in support of Indian independence, to re which are not part of this dataset usable, forcing the adoption of an previous years. Estimation of ex likely to lead to errors in estima Institute of Medical Sciences, New Delhi
main on the statute book. That State governments and (https://bit.ly/3eQ3Bye). indirect approach of using data cess deaths needs a more sophisti tion. A districtwise estimation is and a Member of the World Health
various police departments are known for the casual re The Institute for Health Metrics from other countries or a multiva cated statistical approach which our best bet to arrive at a national Organization/United Nations Department
and Evaluation (IHME), a global riate approach using covariates to fi rst defi nes a baseline, before esti estimate. An assessment of the of Economic and Social Aff airs Technical
sort to prosecution under this section is a poor refl ec
leader in this area, recently re arrive at these estimates. India and mating excess. The simplest ap quality of CRS data should enable Advisory Group on COVID mortality
tion of the understanding of the law among civil ser
vants everywhere. It is now fairly well known that the
section is attracted only if there is an imminent threat
to public order or there is actual incitement to violence
— ingredients that are invariably absent in most cases.
The Biden pushbutton to West Asia’s diplomatic resets
In addition, it remains vaguely and too broadly defi ned Unprecedented interactions among the major powers are leading to a signifi cant diplomatic churn in the region
(the term ‘disaff ection’ is said to include ‘disloyalty’ and
in offi ce, Mr. Biden has signalled a weaponry to sustain its partner yield ground in Iraq: the latter has
‘feelings of enmity’), warranting a total reconsidera fresh U.S. approach to West Asian ship with the U.S. already conveyed its desire to be
tion. Recently, the Supreme Court decided to revisit the aff airs. He has taken a tough line Turkey is also exhibiting diplo free from all external infl uences.
constitutionality of this section. While a judicial verdict on Saudi Arabia, indicating a clos matic dexterity. Despite diff erenc However, Syria will test their di
will be welcome, it would be even more protective of er scrutiny of its human rights re es with Egypt over Libya, the East plomatic skills as they explore how
free speech if the Centre abolished the provision. cord and strong opposition to the Mediterranean waters and Tur to accommodate their competing
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ajor West Asian nations regional support for its diff erences mote peace in Libya and pursue riod for West Asian diplomacy: the
The muchdelayed convening of the have recently embarked with Ethiopia. It now seems the tary outcome and now demand their interests jointly in the East major states are displaying an un
GST Council comes at a critical juncture on new diplomatic en U.S. could reenter the nuclear fresh diplomatic approaches. Mediterranean by challenging precedented selfconfi dence in
gagements with erstwhile rivals agreement, but Iran has concerns Greece, Israel and Cyprus. pursuing initiatives without the
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fter a gap of over seven months, the GST Council that could in time overturn exist about the limitations to be im Recent engagements Turkey has also made overtures heavy hand of western powers
will now meet on May 28, Finance Minister Nir ing regional alignments and possi posed on its regional role. Following the fi rst meetings in to Saudi Arabia. Besides accepting that have dominated regional af
mala Sitharaman announced last Saturday. That bly end ongoing confl icts that have Turkey could also experience Baghdad, both Iran and Saudi Ara the Saudi court verdict on the fairs for at least a couple of centu
the Council, expected to meet every quarter, has taken wreaked havoc in several states. fresh winds from Washington. bia have made eff orts to improve Khashoggi murder case (https:// ries, and, in pursuit of their own
possibly the longest pause in its functioning does not The most dramatic interactions Turkish President Recep Tayyip the atmosphere. In a recent inter bit.ly/3w5QwGS), Turkey has indi interests, have nurtured deep ani
have been between senior Saudi Erdoğ an has built close ties with view, Crown Prince Mohammed cated it could work with the Saudis mosities between many of them.
set a good precedent. Given the acrimony that tran
and Iranian offi cials. After their Russia, while threatening U.S. al bin Salman spoke of seeking a against the Houthis and facilitate This has left a pervasive sense of
spired in its last few meetings over how the States’ GST meeting on April 9, the fi rst since lies in Syria, the Kurds, with mili “good and special relationship” the postwar political process insecurity across West Asia and
compensation dues for the pandemicinduced lock diplomatic ties were broken in Ja tary force. Mr. Biden is expected to with Iran. The Iranian spokesman through the Islamist AlIslah party. made the countries dependent on
downdented 202021 were to be met, the long break nuary 2016, there have been other be less accommodative; his recent responded by referring to a “new Turkey has also off ered the king western alliances to ensure their
makes CentreState equations even more awkward. interactions, with technical com recognition of the Armenian “ge phase of cooperation and tole dom its advanced drones to be interests.
States later reluctantly agreed to the Centre’s proposal mittees set up to look at specifi c nocide” is already a fresh rebuke. rance”. used against Houthi missiles.
to raise ₹ 1.1 lakh crore of GST recompense dues through topics. Besides concerns in West Asian The priority for the kingdom is Qatar’s outreach to Egypt has A role for India?
Again, since early this year, fol capitals about a new U.S. ap to end the Yemen confl ict: the been well received, since it ap Today, states in West Asia appear
special market borrowings, after the Finance Ministry
lowing the removal of the diplo proach to each of them, the broad lethal attacks from the precision pears to have moderated its ties poised to negotiate their strategic
backed off from insisting that States raise these loans di matic and economic blockade on er message from Washington is missiles of the Houthis, said to with the Brotherhood, toned interests without outside intru
rectly. In the intervening period, the economy almost Qatar that was imposed by Saudi that the U.S. is now likely to be less have been provided by Iran, are a down antiEgypt broadcasts on Al sion. But, given that regional con
surged back to normalcy before being hobbled again by Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, engaged with the region’s quar threat to national infrastructure Jazeera television, and is a major tentions are interconnected,
the second wave of infections. And unlike the fi rst Bahrain and Egypt, Doha has rels. Mr. Biden seems to be reiter and morale. The recent Houthi at potential investor in Egypt’s fl ag thirdparty facilitators will be
wave, there is a greater onus on the States now to fi gure made eff orts to mend ties with ating earlier messages from his tack on oilrich Marib is also a Sau ging economy. To promote region needed to promote mutual confi
out everything from what mobility restrictions to put in both Saudi Arabia and Egypt, in predecessors Barack Obama and di concern, while Iran would like al peace, Qatar’s Foreign Minister dence and prepare the ground for
place, to vaccination sequencing, and the bigger hea tandem with similar initiatives of Donald Trump that regional states the blockaded Hodeidah port has called for a structured dia a comprehensive regional security
its doctrinal and political ally, Tur should be responsible for regional which is partially open, to be used logue of the Gulf countries with arrangement which will bring to
dache of sourcing enough vaccines from within or out
key. security. to rush humanitarian aid to the be Iran, affi rming its view that Iran is gether regional and external states
side India. A Council meeting before or after the Union On May 5, Turkey and Egypt These signals of new U.S. poli leaguered Houthis. Iranian Fo a major presence in the regional with a stake in West Asia security.
Budget could have helped soothe States’ frayed nerves. had their fi rst diplomatic meeting cies have occurred even as the no reign Minister Javad Zarif has sup security scenario. This arrangement will have pro
Having ignored the call by several States for a Council in Cairo after they had broken di vel coronavirus pandemic is de ported the Saudi off er of a visions for participating states to
meet all these months, citing the Assembly polls, the plomatic ties in 2013, when Egyp vastating West Asia. Besides the ceasefi re in Yemen. Regional security uphold regional peace and pro
Centre will now also have to contend with a slight tian President Mohammed Morsi widespread infections and deaths, Both countries also share con These are very early days and all mote mutually benefi cial coopera
change in equations. The elan of reelected State go was overthrown in a military coup. the viral epidemic has severely cerns relating to the political im sides concerned have a long way tion in energy, economic and lo
The two countries, on opposite damaged regional economies, passe in Lebanon and the security to go in resolving their diff erences. gistical connectivity areas.
vernments apart, a large State such as Tamil Nadu can
sides on almost all regional issues, while oil prices remain in the dol of the waters of the Gulf and the Egypt remains uneasy about Tur Given its close ties with all the
no longer be expected to toe the Centre’s line. There is are now exploring how to address drums, creating uncertainties for Red Sea where a “shadow war” on key’s ties with the Brotherhood regional states, India is well
much big ticket pending work on the Council’s plate, their diff erences. the producer states. oil and merchant vessels could es and its regional ambitions. Saudi placed to build an association of
but from the States’ perspective, it would be necessary Finally, one major factor that is calate into a larger confl ict. So far, Arabia has similar concerns about likeminded states — Japan, Russia,
to get clarity on the modalities for receiving the The Biden challenge encouraging these unprecedented both have paid a heavy fi nancial Turkey’s doctrinal affi liations and South Korea — to shape and pur
₹ 63,000 crore GST compensation still due to them, The driving force behind these un interactions among rivals is the re price for their rivalry: Iran’s role in its relations with Iran. sue such an initiative for West
along with this year’s dues, in a timely manner. Cash precedented engagements is the cognition that the ongoing region Syria costs its exchequer a few bil There are diffi culties in reshap Asian peace.
advent of the Biden administration al confl icts, in Syria, Yemen and Li lion dollars every month, while ing SaudiIran relations as well.
fl ow visibility would help them gear up better, be it for
at the helm of politics in the Unit bya, despite the massive death and Saudi Arabia has spent several Iran may ease the pressure on the Talmiz Ahmad is a former Ambassador to
vaccines or subsequent COVID19 waves. Even more ed States. Within his fi rst 100 days destruction, have yielded no mili hundred billion dollars in buying kingdom in Yemen and gradually Saudi Arabia, Oman and the UAE
pressing is the demand to drop GST on material to bat
tle the pandemic, including the 12% tax on oxygen con
centrators, 5% on vaccines, and on relief supplies from
LETTERS TO THE EDITOR Letters emailed to letters@thehindu.co.in must carry the full postal address and the full name or the name with initials.
CM A ND-NDE
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