THE WEEKLY

Market Report: April 8th 2016 (Volume 6: Issue 15)

Executive Summary: FOMC confirm the FED’s caution over “international developments”;
Commodity space again exhibiting vulnerability and Lows again at Risk?

S&P500 – Losses evenly spread globally (ex; UK); Sentiment improves (below) BUT so does the JPY
Buying all amid potential Break- Down in Commodities; Risk about to be tested again?

Sentiment data – Put/Call #’s flat again @ 1.02 (1.00); VIX higher @ 15.36% (13.10%), Neutrals still
ABNORMALLY (2015) Over- Weight; Bulls gain 5% @ Bears primary expense (-4%).

German DAX – “Sell Signal afoot (MACD).” ....Continued leadership; DAX leads the losses ex- N225.

China Shanghai Index – Resistance maintains its hold for now; slew of data due this week.

NASDAQ100 – Shadowing the Benchmark with few clues; unusual.

NIKKEI225 – “Large 11% Down- Week” shadow was never bettered & repercussions follow…Lower.

Brazil’s BOVESPA – Volatile Week finally matching the news flow from the stricken economy.

Fixed Income: Q1 Rally continues into Q2; Low Yield again @ Risk?

US 10 year Note – FED’s ‘caution’ sooner or later becomes an ‘error’ if Risk implodes?

Currencies: Medium- Term Dollar ‘Trend Change’ ......Bear Market or Bull Flag?

EUR/USD – “EURO rallies back above into the 1.10- 1.15 Range”. …..1.15 retest underway........

USD/JPY – Relentless Risk Aversion Buying sees 110 dusted ($ PUTS now In the Money); heightened
chatter over where the BoJ ‘lurks’ (105?), overt Yen strength will not be tolerated for long?

AUD/USD – A Week best described as emblematic of the RBA; ‘do nothing’...wait for a catalyst.

Commodities: “signs of a breakdown with implications?..could be the latter?” Long GOLD?

Industrial Metals – Potential Breakdown MOST evident here as implications could be significant.

Gold – “Test of $1195 due” now likely past & successful for the Bugs; DARE we suggest > $1300 now?

Copper – Test of $2.09 now in the eye of the beholder as “M/T outcomes for all & sundry?” @ stake.

Crude Oil ($WTI) – “It’s ALL about the Weekly Close ABOVE $35.50/60; Risk should RETURN to favour
across many a Global Asset Class… Price Action since > $40 best described as an overdue
Consolidation; below $35.50 & something’s not right” Support holds; now what?

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INDEX: Page 1: Executive Summary

Page 2: Index

Page 3: Market Sentiment #’s & NYSE McClellan Oscillator

Page 4: Spotlight – Drewrys Trans- Pacific Spot Rates.

Page 5: US Biotechnology - Weekly Chart

Page 6: Dow Transports – Weekly Chart

Page 7: US 10 Year Note - Weekly Price Chart & Fixed Income Matrix

Page 8: S&P500 - Daily Chart

Page 9: NDX100 (NASDAQ100) - Daily Chart

Page 10: S&P500 - Weekly Chart (NDX Monthly) & Equity Matrix

Page 11: Philadelphia Bank Index (BKX) & Small Caps (S&P600)

Page 12: German DAX - Daily & Weekly Charts

Page 13: UK FTSE100 & France’s CAC40 Weekly Charts

Page 14: Japan NIKKEI225 & New Zealand’s NZ50 Weekly Charts

Page 15: China Shanghai - & Hang Seng Index (HSI) Weekly Charts

Page 16: Australia ASX200 - Daily Chart & Economic news

Page 17: Australia ASX200 - Weekly Chart

Page 18: MSCI EM ETF (EEM) & NASDAQ AAXJ Asia ex- Japan iSHARE

Page 19: Brazil BOVESPA - Daily & Weekly Charts

Page 20: EURO Currency vs. US Dollar - Daily Chart

Page 21: Australian Dollar vs. US Dollar - Daily Chart

Page 22: Japanese Yen vs. US Dollar - Weekly Chart

Page 23: US Dollar Index - Weekly Chart & Currency Matrix

Page 24: Industrial Metals ($GYX) - Daily & Weekly Charts

Page 25: Gold - Daily & Weekly Charts

Page 26: Copper - Daily & Weekly Charts

Page 27: WTI Crude Oil – Daily Chart & Commodity Matrix

Page 28: Worthy of Note & Economic Calendar. Disclaimer

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Market Observations & Comments:
 Equity Sentiment: Bulls Up 5% @ 32.2% (38.8% L/T av.), Bears -4.3% @ 21.5% (30.3%),
Neutrals -0.7% @ 46.3% (30.9%). (AAII)
 Sentiment data: Neutrals remain “Abnormally high” as the Bulls gain 5 @ Bears’ expense.
 Put/ Call Ratio: Flat again @ 1.02 (1.00); the VIX reacts to index losses @ 15.36% (13.10%).

NYSE Composite McClellan Oscillator: -0.98%/ Week

 NYSE Index: “Large Wedge structure/ pattern exhibiting overt vulnerability?” 07/10/15
“Outside- Down Week” ………. Risks skewed Lower into early 2016. 01/01
 “BOTH the 61.8% retrace & GAP Closure have been ‘satisfied’” 03/18
 “Negative Divergences; last Week’s losses regained BUT nothing more unlike the
S&P500’s 1.81% gains. Caution here our View.” Plays out with losses yet less than the
Benchmark S&P500 suggesting more Trader style machinations than Retail concerns?

 Oscillator: “NOW in Over- Bought territory with precedence for some ‘indigestion’. Further
gains from here NOT to be sustainable as per the October- November ‘Advance’ pre- Jan16’s
collapse?”…Below the Zero envelope lends itself to further losses Short- Term.

 Summation Index: “NOW @ Over- Sold Level have proven to be timely BUYs” 01/15
“Extreme Over- Sold reading ‘screams’ Higher M/ T; weakness here = Buy.” 02/05
“Obstinately Over- Bought” ......finally being alleviated with plenty of room down to Zero.

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THE WEEKLY: SPOTLIGHT - Trans- Pacific Trade Spot Rates (Drewrys).

East- Bound Spot Rates:

West- Bound Spot Rates:

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BIOTECHS INDEX WEEKLY CHART: +3.88%/ Week
 “The MACD still in SELL Mode...NO signs of ‘life’ here in High Beta ‘land’.....a concern?” 07/14
 “Just over 4 Weeks back & the S&P500 is up 10+% (1880- 2075).......Biotechnology is actually
a little lower over the same period; 50/200day SMA on a SELL Signal” 10/23
 “3 ½% & 3% Gains previous 2 Weeks (Santa) & NOW a ‘stall’; previous such developments
have witnessed immediate WEAKNESS......... Lower S/T the Bias.” 01/01
 “ -37% YTD (Intra- Week) & -47% from the Highs” 02/19

 9 ½ % last 2 Weeks YET we remain shy the 38.2% retrace of losses a la the Sino Equity ‘Bust’?

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: “persistent Over- Bought Condition serving to warn that ALL
rallies DO NOT last forever. When we see something; we’ll say something.” 3/06
 “Failure to post Beta #’s > 1 suggestive the S&P500 ‘bounce’ simply a reprieve Rally?” 07/31
 “Question: Rally in the Benchmark S&P500 juxtaposed to the apparent ‘Failure’ here.” 10/23
 “Technical Studies juxtaposed......DMI/ADX telling us to ‘cool our heels’ as ‘Directionless’
would best describe the BTK Weekly?” 01/01
 “2375 defines ‘existential’ Support & BELOW that; the whole shebang from 1812 likely
surrendered.”…. “DOWN 47% must attract some ‘Value Buyers’?”…BUT Not Momentum..yet?
 “Unlike the S&P500 that is @ the 61.8% retrace of losses from its Highs; the BioTech Index
remains shy EVEN of its 38.2% retrace signalling this Rally a ‘Counter’ one.” 03/04
 “Simple 38.2% retrace (3295) of the HUGE losses still stubbornly a ways away; whilst below
THAT (3295) it’s still a Bear Market L/Term.” Remarkably......STILL “No Change”
even with the MACD on a Buy Signal together with a climbing Full Stochastic.

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DOW JONES TRANSPORT WEEKLY ($TRAN): -1.92%/ Week

Intermodal/ Global Transport & Trade News:

 BALTIC FREIGHT INDEX: Further gains to 539 (450).
 LA/ LB – Shanghai Trans- Pac Rates: $475/40’ Container vs same time last
Year @ $704 = 32.5% decline. (see page #4)
 US Trucking Jobs: NFP’s showed another Monthly loss of Jobs; YTD @ -3K.
(Baltic Exchange/ JoC)

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: “Nothing new to alter the ‘Corrective’ Bias for the Trannies.” 01/16/14
 “Weekly Chart: In SELL Mode; Large Distributive HIGH in the making since Nov’14?” 03/27
 “Weekly Close back below 38% of losses leaving Trannies in ‘Down- Mode’ M- Term.” 09/18
 “Declining 200day SMA @ 8520 & 61.8% retrace @ 8600: defines the extent/ life span of the
Bear Market; it can still come ‘unglued’ below those levels (8520/600).” 10/09
 “Weekly MACD Sell Signal = Trannies as the Lead Indicator.” 12/04
 “Resistance @ 7150 defines Medium- Term prospects” 02/05
 “‘Higher Highs/ Higher Lows’ THESIS that is Signalling….. the worst is behind us?” 02/26
 “DJT signalled amid the ‘January SCARE’ that a Low was @ hand; still #1 Lead Index.” 03/04
 “61.8% retrace of 9310.22 High @ 8200 ultimate arbiter of the veracity of this Rally.” 03/25
 “Losses @ odds with S&P500; together with a Sell Signal on the Daily MACD…..a SIGN?” &
perhaps the Trannies again (like the Commodity space) proving to be the lead ‘dogs’?
 DMI on a potential Sell Signal together with the Stochastic ‘rolling over’; from acorns grow..?

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US10 YR NOTE DAILY YIELD ($TNX): Lower by 6bps @ 1.72%
 “UNTIL 2.50% is Closed above; all a Bear Flag ready to ensnare the unsuspecting?” 06/05/15
 “Previous Thursday’s Outside- Down Day (Yield) STILL valid (2.47%)” 07/10/15
 “1.65% Low to be tested” 01/29 “1.60/65% remains the Risk.” 02/05
 “Rally in %’s can be ‘entertained’ to the 2.25% Down- Trend line if that’s the way of it?” 03/04

 “Should one want to be ‘creative’ a Bear Flag can be construed with implications for another
‘run to sub- 1.60% with connotations for Risk Assets globally (?)” 03/25
 Bear Flag THESIS intact as Yields ‘drift’ lower amid Equity Market losses; our “Test/ Break of
the 1.57% Lows should ensue & perhaps ‘soon’. Risk Assets?” VIEW intact as well as the 61.8%
retrace of Yield ‘back- up’ > 1.567- 2.02% has been breached. Below 1.56% = What exactly?

PERFORMANCE MATRIX for GLOBAL BONDS (S&P500): Weekly/ Monthly & Quarterly #’s.

1/8/16 3/11/16 4/1/16 4/8/16 Wkly Beta Mthly Beta Qrtly Beta
S&P500 1922.03 2022.19 2072.78 2047.60 -1.21% 1.00 1.26% 1.00 6.53% 1.00
US T-Bills 0.45% 0.51% 0.39% 0.34% -12.8% 10.55 -33.3% -26.53 -24.44% -3.74
US-2YR 0.94% 0.97% 0.75% 0.69% -8.00% 6.59 -28.9% -22.97 -26.60% -4.07
US-10YR 2.13% 1.98% 1.78% 1.72% -3.37% 2.77 -13.1% -10.45 -19.25% -2.95
US-30YR 2.91% 2.75% 2.61% 2.55% -2.30% 1.89 -7.27% -5.79 -12.37% -1.89
BUNDS 0.51% 0.27% 0.13% 0.09% -30.8% 25.33 -66.7% -53.05 -82.35% -12.6
GILTS 1.77% 1.57% 1.41% 1.36% -3.55% 2.92 -13.4% -10.64 -23.16% -3.55
JGBs 0.21% -0.02% -0.07% -0.10% 42.9% -35.3 400% 318.33 -147.6% -22.6
AUD10 YR 2.77% 2.67% 2.52% 2.40% -4.76% 3.92 -10.1% -8.05 -13.36% -2.04

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EQUITY MARKET ANALYSIS: “50/200day SMA SELL in effect still......THAT was the EASY
observation; a Wedge (bearish)….having played out.” 09/18/15

 “2116 High on a rare SET- UP (9 successive Closes > N-4) & .....‘failed’ Test of 2132” 11/06
 “LOWER remains the Risk & Bias”….. 01/01
 “Notions of 2000 & 2025 can still be entertained ALL amid a Counter- Rally.” 02/26

 “Rally extends into O/T with the MACD on a nascent Sell Signal.” 03/25
 Tactical Posture: “Raft of Resistance lies ‘dead- ahead’ @ 2080/ 2105/ 2115 before the 2134
Highs.” ...& keeps the Benchmark under pressure with the Sell/ MACD Signal in effect to boot.

S&P500 STOCK INDEX DAILY CHART: -1.21%/ Week @ Close Friday: 2047.60

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: “Test of 1951 looms; potential for serious ‘look’ @ 1867 Lows.” 12/11
 “Bottom Line: GAP @ 1951 ‘needs’ to be Filled” 01/01
 “Lower until something Clear is scored on either intra- day 4 Hour OR Daily Charts.” 01/08
 “5 Weeks & counting NOW same time frame as the Aug/ Sep’ 15 indigestion; same again?”
 “Rally continues……retest 2134 High…. managed to frustrate the Bears.” 03/04
 “Tuesday’s Outside- Down Day: Enough to terminate this Rally…..BUT with caveats as it may
simply be a pause to refresh before a full blown assault on the 2116/2134 Highs.” 03/25

 Still nothing overt to compliment the MACD’s Sell Signal; that said & perhaps we continue to
churn under the 3x’s Resistance Points @ 2080 (2075 so far)/ 2104/ 2116?
 Support @ 1975; a simple 38% retrace of Gains > 1810 & all within a Bullish Rally Thesis.

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NASDAQ100 INDEX DAILY CHART: -1.26%/ Week @ Close Friday: 4475

 “GAP @ 3872.36 the OUTLIER that should be in the back of every PM’s & Trader’s MIND as
THAT IS WHERE THE ‘outlier’ RISK lies if the ‘panic’ gets a life of its own.” 08/21
 “Large GAP......4500...OPEN.....the worry first & can fill amid a BUY on the 50/200!?”..... 11/06
 “Bias is for Lower with 50% retrace of Rally: 3787 (@ 4263) Closing the 4267 GAP.” 12/18

 “GAP ‘Way Point’ @ 4593 that the NDX100 is targeting amid the S&P500’s 2080/2116
‘date’?” ……. ‘Up & Back’ Rally with “Closing that GAP @ 4593” still unfinished business; our
“notions of a pullback” playing out before the Fill & “Patience” indeed as perhaps this pullback
simply part of the ‘patience’ frustration (for ALL) before 4593 is finally Closed?

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: “December’ 15 Monthly Chart = Outside Down Reversal........last time

witnessed June 2008...........June 2008 Close: 1837.1 (2055.8 High); subsequent ‘best’ post the Monthly
Signal (Sell) @ 1973.6 BEFORE descent into 2009 ‘abyss’ Lows @ 1018.90 (44.5% Decline).” 01/01
 “4267 remains our Target........ that’s where we’re going in January!” 01/01/2016
 “Longer- Term potential ‘projection’; the 3678.20 Gap (23 May 2014) NOW the absolute
‘outlier’ should an ‘emergency descent’ play out globally as Risk gets ‘jettisoned’?” 01/08
 “GAP lurking higher should the ‘Gods’ of Frustration deem a Rally that far: 4593?” 01/22

 “Counter- Rally with ONLY that pesky Gap just below 4600 beckoning this index higher.
Nothing overt to say this Rally ‘done’….. 03/11….perhaps some hesitation is in order @ the
61.8% retrace level before intentions are fully revealed? 03/18 MACD corkscrewing with
nothing overt one way or the other UNLIKE the S&P500 which is on a Sell Signal. Patience.

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S&P500 INDEX WEEKLY CHART: “NOT stuff of sustainable Rally = Tactical Short” 07/10
 “Bias MUST shift to further losses & Closing the 1951 GAP/ TEST of 1867 Low.” 12/11
 “NDX100 MTHLY: Outside – Down Monthly on High Beta NDX = CAUTION/ Short.” 01/01/16
 “Lowest Close > October 2014….August precedent suggests a Low BUT not before some
frustration (4/5 Weeks) of continued ‘doubt’/ concerns over matters?” 01/22
 “Weekly Buy Signal” v “Monthly Sell Signal; ….IF Bull Flag Thesis is so; a break (Weekly Close)
ABOVE 2100 needed. Rally NOW 6 Weeks (1810 Low) a la October’15 Low” 03/18

 “Large Monthly Bull Flag” still there for the interpretation; perhaps it lingers for all of 2016?
 Full Stochastic back to levels where the 2116 failed Rally rolled over (-1810); same again?

PERFORMANCE MATRIX FOR MAJOR INDICES (S&P500):

1/8/16 3/11/16 4/1/16 4/8/16 Wkly Beta Mthly Beta Qrtly Beta
S&P500 1922.03 2022.19 2072.78 2047.60 -1.21% 1.00 1.26% 1.00 6.53% 1.00
NDX100 4270.78 4361.83 4532.08 4474.92 -1.26% 1.04 2.59% 2.06 4.78% 0.73
ASX200 4990.80 5166.00 4999.40 4937.60 -1.24% 1.02 -4.42% -3.52 -1.07% -0.16
BOVESPA 40612.21 49638.68 50561.63 50292.93 -0.53% 0.44 1.32% 1.05 23.84% 3.65
SHANGHAI 3186.41 2810.31 3009.53 2984.96 -0.82% 0.67 6.21% 4.95 -6.32% -0.97
FTSE100 5912.44 6139.79 6146.05 6204.41 0.95% -0.78 1.05% 0.84 4.94% 0.76
DAX 9849.34 9831.13 9794.64 9622.26 -1.76% 1.45 -2.12% -1.69 -2.31% -0.35
NIKKEI225 17697.96 16938.87 16164.16 15821.52 -2.12% 1.74 -6.60% -5.25 -10.60% -1.62
VIX 27.01% 16.50% 13.10% 15.36% 17.25% -14.2 -6.91% -5.50 -43.13% -6.60
5-Day P/C % 1.17 0.95 1.00 1.02 2.20% -1.81 7.58% 6.03 -12.65% -1.94

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PHILADELPHIA BANKING INDEX ($BKX) WEEKLY: -3.65%/ Week
 “5% Rally comes apart @ the seams 77.14 High in place; Major Spt @ $65/ 67.” 12/11
 “$65/67 Support breached & Weekly Close below places $50/55 in sight M/ Term.” 01/15
 Ground Zero for losses as the Financials surrender nearly half of gains since Feb Lows.

S&P600 SMALL CAPS INDEX ($SML) WEEKLY: -2.28%/ Week

 “O/ S- Down Day....Dec ($712 High); Daily Bear Flag @ $670 defines”..... 12/25
 “Healthy Beta suggestive that this Counter- Rally NOT to be underestimated.” 02/26
 4 Weeks of Gain/ Surrender/ Gain/ Surrender; still “7 ½ % shy its Record High.” Vulnerable.

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GERMANY’S DAX ($DAX) DAILY CHART: -1.76%/ Week Close: 9622
 “< 38% retrace of losses (10,120) kept DAX in ‘strong’ position for…8600 doable.” 02/05
 “Outside Down Day Thursday” 3 Weeks back; “MACD in Sell Mode WITH precedence.” as
the DAX succumbs to further Selling amid a steady BUT strong EURO. Support: 9240.

DAX WEEKLY CHART: “Rally from 8355 @ Risk...... Remains BIGGER PICTURE ‘Play’” 08/28
 “Outside- Down Weekly Pattern”..12/04…. “Medium- Term VIEW Lower into 2016”…..12/18
 “Broad area of Support (8750- 10,000) contains Price Action.” 01/22
 Series of “Indecisive Weeks” & losses ensue; this decline can see New Lows (8300) if it wants.

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UK’s FTSE 100 INDEX ($FTSE) WEEKLY CHART: +0.95%/ Week
 “Outside- Up Week all part of a small yet technically significant Bull Flag suggesting further
gains & still some 16% shy the Q2’15 7122 Highs.”....plays out @ odds with other G7 markets

FRANCE’S CAC40 ($CAC) WEEKLY CHART: -0.44%/ Week

 “Key Reversal; just like the FT100 & S&P500.....a pattern emerging?” 05/01
 “Turn- Up from mid- levels not sustainable M/ Term” 07/17 “4000/ 4500 Support Zone”
 Nothing to negate the “‘adventurous’.......Bearish Set- Up a la the ASX?”; Risks skewed Lower.

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JAPAN’s NIKKEI225 ($NKK) WEEKLY CHART: -2.12%/ Week
 “Outside- Down Week; ominous development.” 08/14/15 “Outside- Down
Reversal Week”...12/04 ... “THAT outlier GAP below @ 16,534 INDEED Closed” 01/22
 “Large 11% losses….. Narrow Weekly Range.....Risk being firmly skewed for losses.” 03/25
 “until 17,200 overcome….LOWER.” playing out; Risks still skewed for Test of the 14,865 Low.

NEW ZEALAND TOP 50 ($NZ50) WEEKLY INDEX: +0.33%/ Week

 “Last 6 Weeks do have an OVERT Exhaustive style about them…sooner or later?”…..Stalling
Momentum for the Switzerland of the South Pacific? If so; evident weakness needed soon.

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CHINA SHANGHAI ($SSEC) WEEKLY CHART: -0.82%/ Week
 “Below 3740 KEEPS Bear Market alive” ......MACD & Full Stochastic signalling Lower” 01/08
 “Keeping it Simple; below 2950/ 3050 & the Risks skewed firmly Lower for Chinese Stocks.”
 2950/3050 Resistance keeps the lid on Sino gains; just like the Party on Internet ‘news’?

HONG KONG’S HANG SENG WEEKLY CHART ($HSI): -0.63%/ Week

 “Until Reversal & Resistance @ 23,500/ 30 is ‘taken out’; Lows @ 20.4K are @ Risk.” 01/01
 “The serious ‘damage’ suffered by HK (-36%) has witnessed little in the way of a ‘claw back’”
 “Indecisive Weekly Chart, the Risks remain for Lower L/Term.” Still the case & our View.

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AUSTRALIAN ASX200 INDEX ($SPASX200):
 “Secret IMF Research on Australia: Fairfax Media reports on a secret IMF report citing OZ as
the ‘advanced economy’ “most at risk” from a prolonged Sino slowdown.” 09/25
 “‘Ease of doing Business’ Global Index: Australia DROP OUT Of Top 10 to 13th Spot.” 10/30

 Debts/ Deficits et al: Arrium Steel ‘bankruptcy’ sees Aussie ATMs @ A$1B Loans @ Risk;
TOTAL Mining Lending @ A$66B (1.6%/ Total Assets) as the Mining BUST intensifies.
 Potential ‘sinister’ Technical Set- Up still very much the order of the day whilst below 5216.

ASX200 DAILY CHART: -1.24%/ Week Close Friday: 4937.60

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: “Wide Range Outside Down Day” ... “the ‘party’ is over?” 03/20
 “Previous Week’s “Counter- Rally” dusted; Aussie Miracle coming apart @ the seams” 06/05
 “Over- Sold; allowing for gains....38.2% retrace of 5996.90/ 4918.40 losses @ 5330” 10/02
 “Our Thesis: Long- Term 4600 Support …..very likely to be TESTED in 2016”...... 01/08
 “Rare 9 Day Tom deMark ‘Set- Up’ leaves Index vulnerable to sharp Correction Lower.” 01/01
 “OUR View remains that the ASX200 is a CLEAR 2016 Laggard in every sense.” 01/22
 “Case of being a Laggard is still there to be negated/ challenged.” 03/04
 “200day SMA @ 5214 keeps the ASX200 under wraps for the moment”…… 03/18
 “MACD Sell Signal: Noteworthy as the Southern Aurora Train Wreck unfolds?; recent ‘form’
potentially suggesting another ‘run’ to lower bound of the large 4750/ 5350 Range?” 03/25
 “Failure @ 5116 could be a potentially ‘sinister’ Set- Up as Support Lines/ Resistance Test &
Failure (see Chart) leave the Index vulnerable to large losses.” NO Change to this Thesis/ View
with the potential for a Fast move Testing the 4700 Lows as the Budget ‘trigger’ gets closer.

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ASX200 WEEKLY CHART: “Colossal misjudgement of future demand,” The Commodity Illusion.
 “Ned Davis Research: “we are in Year 4 of a 20 year Bear SUPER Cycle” for Commodities &
reinforcing the extent of the challenges that Australia faces for a Generation or so?” 10/23
 US Mining Asset Sales: “Alpha Natural Resources cancel auction of 35 coal mines”……GS.

 Dunn & Bradstreet Business Survey: 7 out of 7 Sectors report LOWER Expectations QoQ.
 Continued: Retail Sector @ -50%QoQ/ Services Sector @ -47%QoQ lead the declines with
Manufacturing Sector @ ‘only’ -33% & Wholesale @ -20%QoQ.
 Retail Sales: Flat Monthly #’s for January as the RBA continues to ‘sit pat’ on the OCR.
 AiG Services PMI: Below 50 @ 49.5 (55.18) as the ‘Great Transition’ continues apace???

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: “OUTSIDE- DOWN Weekly Chart: M- Term Bearish now.” 03/06
 “5996.40 & subsequent reversal as the realization....all is not well in the ‘Miracle’.” 04/17
 “Weekly Sell Signal....in effect.” 05/22 “potential to ‘take back’ WHOLE 5122 Rally.” 06/12
 “Indecisive Weekly Chart & potential for a ‘jiggy’ S&P500 Rally.....5330 anyone?” 10/02
 “Risks CLEARLY defined; breach of 4900 sees the 4576/ 4632 Target Zone” 01/08
 “Rally has ONLY to stay < 5331 (O/S Down Wk) & the Down- Trend remains intact.” 01/15
 “Outside- Down Week = Simple Interpretation = Lower S/T.” 02/05
 “Indecisive Week followed by follow through (Lower) of sorts & the onus is on the recent Bulls
(in actuality Perma- Bulls?) to keep matters intact” 03/25
 REALITY: Australian FYTD #’s = ASX200 @ -9.55%/ S&P500 comparison = -1.40%. Laggard?
 ASX20: FYTD #’s......... -16.46% which is probably more representative of Super Accounts (?);
where so called QE effects have had ABSOLUTELY NO EFFECT in The Miracle Down- Under.

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MSCI EM (NYSE: EEM) WEEKLY CHART: -2.25%/ Week
 “EM recovery....@ Risk of failing?......proving to be the Case as the Commodity Boom ends ‘ugly’?
 “Resistance next @ $33.94 well within sight.” ….disappointing as previous Week’s gains given
back rather ‘meekly’; notions of $36/37 for the EEM to be put on ice for the moment.

AAXJ iSHARE: MSCI Asia- Ex Japan Index Fund WEEKLY CHART -1.77%/ Week
 “Bear Flag Thesis......Lower”....... 01/01 “MACD & Stochastic on Sell Signals.” 01/08
 Inability to “‘stick’ a Close above the 38.2% retrace. This ‘fails’ can the EEM Rally?” A Sign?

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BRAZIL’s BOVESPA ($BVSP) DAILY INDEX: -0.53%/ Week Close Friday: 50,292
 Clear 5- Wave impulsive Rally from the 37K Lows is the Good News for Brazil (could do with
some?); a Large Rolling Correction now likely in play defined by 46.5K Spt & 52.3 Resistance.

BOVESPA WEEKLY CHART: “Prev Rallies started from ill- defined Patterns; Bullish M/ T?” 02/6
 “Clearly Indecisive Weekly; BUY @ $35K” 02/26 “52.5K not unthinkable from here.” 2/28
 “Over- Bought 1st Sign of ‘trouble’ as an Indecisive Chart can be ‘argued’? Care now.” 4/08
 Corrective Theme plays out with resistance & 52,300/ 600 unlikely to be surrender meekly.

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CURRENCY ANALYSIS:
 “US Dollar Index remains under the ‘influence’ of the Outside- Week scored late November
with an apparent ‘failed’ Test of 100.71 High @ 100.60; until BOTH those Levels bettered the
Medium- Term Outlook from a Technical Perspective MUST be for Lower ($Index: 92/94)”
 ECB Minutes: Debate over an even larger Rate Cut reported; nothing to stop the reversal of
fortune/ sentiment on the Dollar being played out in the EURO & Yen ‘spaces’.

EURO/USD DAILY CHART: No Change/ Week @ Close: 1.1395

 “It’s a Range Trade 1.05- 1.15 & UNTIL that breaks; AVOID. Our Bias > 1.15.” 01/01/16
 “Medium- Term View remains unchanged @ a ‘date’ with 1.20 for the EUR/USD.” 04/01

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS:
 Should it be one’s ‘poison’; decline from 1.60 has a Corrective look to it & could be nothing
more than the ‘mother’ of all Bullish Flags; if so what that means globally?” 01/16/15

 “Bear Flag or a Series of Higher Lows & Highs = Up- Trend?” 03/25
 Nearly a whole Week of Indecisive Days whilst amid Over- Bought Stochastic & expanding
20/40day SMAS; which HAVE heralded periods of consolidation/ range trading just to
exasperate the EURO lot. DMI/ ADX @ levels that suggest anything close to 1.15 = Sell.

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AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR DAILY (AUDUSD): -1.69%/ Week @ Close: 0.7550

 Goldman Sachs: “The currency’s going to be very well supported. Around this level, you get
paid a couple of percent a year to own it and the domestic dynamics are reasonably good and
so compared to other things it looks relatively attractive...stand out on a Global basis.” 02/19
 “A$ back ABOVE 0.7375……simple 38.2% retrace from 0.9750 sees 80 cents?” 03/04
 “A$ @ 0.80 cents (?): It’s ALL about the Fibonacci %’s…..0.7940 represents 38% retrace of
losses since 0.9750; 0.8300 38% from the infamous 1.1080” 03/18

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: “Trustworthy 20/40 SMAs Short since 78cents;10% gain & counting
thus far as commentary says this may finally be ‘enough’ for the battling A$?” 09/04
 “Bear Flag interpretation says ‘Lower’ into early 2106.”...............No reason to alter our View.
 Over- Sold reading on the Full Stochastic may keep the battler just below 70 S/T?” 01/08
 “Support @ 0.7100 = Re- Entry Point for Tactical Types (Long),trustworthy 20/40day SMAs on
a Buy Signal & Commodity rebound in the making; absolutely NO reason Not to abandon said
Longs yet. Tactical Long Trade EXITED @ 0.7625 awaiting a New Short- Term Signal”…03/18
 “Series of Indecisive Daily Charts threatens a reversion to the ‘trustworthy’ 20day SMA @
0.7550 with connotations should THAT level ‘fail’; a deeper Correction then potentially likely
amid Over- Bought S/T condition back to 0.7375/ 0.7400 without ‘harming’ the Up- Trend.”
 Should the A$ Test rising 40day SMA (0.7425); Rally post that a likely “Tactical Short Trade.”

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DOLLAR/ YEN (USD/ JPY) WEEKLY CHART: -3.27%/ Week @ Close: 108.05

 Asia 1996/97: “ALL amid a potential ‘Train Wreck’ in China & softening Global Trade”
 “MACD still on its BUY Signal with major connotations should history be any precedent.”
 “any ‘slip’ in Risk Assets......OWN JPY.”...................what if it’s a 2008 “Repeat’ (NYSE Chart)???
 “Sakakibara sees 105/110 as doable with the ‘Intervention Level’ not until 100?” 0 3/18

 “It is ALL about Risk Assets”; the Yen does what it does BEST & Rally amid any signs of ‘trouble’
with OUR $/JPY 110.00 Puts nicely INTO THE MONEY & some 12 Weeks yet to run......see below.
 $/JPY 105 remains the 1st Level that WILL garner a response; verbal or otherwise from the BoJ.

TECHNICALLY: “Shades of 1995/96/97 YEN devaluation…..affects us all.” 11/07/14

 “Any signs of Risk- Off & the YEN remains #1 Safe Haven, not an echo; just the facts.” 07/24
 “MACD turns on us with a SELL Signal” post the apparent Buy & what exactly will that Signal?
 Some 6 Month 110 Puts filed under “2nd Time’s a Charm” OR ‘EUR/CHF Mark II”?” 01/01/16
 “Equities suffer further falls (that IS the Bias) JPY will press115 & below. Sit tight.” 02/05
 “post the large Weekly decline in $/JPY we are witnessing ONLY a series of Inside Weeks that
do lend themselves to a 110.95 breach sooner or later with OBVIOUS Implications for Risk
Assets as the JPY = Safe Haven #1.” 03/04
 “DMI Trend Indicator says ‘Lower’; O/ Sold Stochastic tempering that enthusiasm. No Bias”
 “Over- Sold condition approaching extreme levels @ 10; no matter the G20 ‘agreement’ it
will come down to who blinks first should the NIKKEI225 continue to suffer large losses.”
 Extreme Over- Sold Daily; YET the Trending ADX strongly & suggests a 105 Test likely soon
with expectations that the BoJ @ the behest of the FinMin will be awaiting that Test....let’s see.

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US DOLLAR INDEX WEEKLY CHART: -0.39%/ Week @ 94.25
 “Bull Flag Thesis remains alive as we ‘spin’ below the dual 100.71/ 60 Highs. No Bias.” 03/04
 “Major Support @ 92 must Hold, a breach there @ 87.40 may be upon us quickly.” 03/18
 US$ Bear ‘Club’ nearly fully subscribed (?) as the Over- Sold Weekly condition approaches
limits (11/14); Support circa 92.40 critical as should that ‘go’.....87.25 & a Gold spurt higher?

PERFORMANCE MATRIX for FX (vs. S&P500):

1/8/16 3/11/16 4/1/16 4/8/16 Wkly Beta Mthly Beta Qrtly Beta
S&P500 1922.03 2022.19 2072.78 2047.60 -1.21% 1.00 1.26% 1.00 6.53% 1.00
$ INDEX 98.60 96.23 94.62 94.25 -0.39% 0.32 -2.06% -1.64 -4.41% -0.68
EURUSD 1.0925 1.1150 1.1395 1.1395 0.00% 0.00 2.20% 1.75 4.30% 0.66
USDJPY 117.50 113.85 111.70 108.05 -3.27% 2.69 -5.09% -4.05 -8.04% -1.23
USDCHF 0.9950 0.9825 0.9588 0.9535 -0.55% 0.46 -2.95% -2.35 -4.17% -0.64
AUDUSD 0.6955 0.7565 0.7680 0.7550 -1.69% 1.39 -0.20% -0.16 8.55% 1.31
GBPUSD 1.4525 1.4380 1.4225 1.4125 -0.70% 0.58 -1.77% -1.41 -2.75% -0.42
USDCNY 6.5948 6.4945 6.4818 6.4636 -0.28% 0.23 -0.48% -0.38 -1.99% -0.30
USDBRL 4.0248 3.5856 3.5538 3.5904 1.03% -0.85 0.13% 0.11 -10.79% -1.65
EURCHF 1.0870 1.0955 1.0926 1.0865 -0.55% 0.46 -0.82% -0.65 -0.05% -0.01
EURJPY 128.37 126.94 127.28 123.12 -3.27% 2.69 -3.01% -2.39 -4.09% -0.63
EURGBP 0.7522 0.7754 0.8011 0.8067 0.71% -0.58 4.04% 3.22 7.26% 1.11
AUDJPY 81.72 86.13 85.79 81.58 -4.91% 4.04 -5.28% -4.20 -0.18% -0.03
AUDCHF 0.6920 0.7433 0.7364 0.7199 -2.24% 1.84 -3.14% -2.50 4.03% 0.62
EURAUD 1.5708 1.4739 1.4837 1.5093 1.72% -1.42 2.40% 1.91 -3.92% -0.60
AUDGBP 0.4788 0.5261 0.5399 0.5345 -1.00% 0.82 1.60% 1.28 11.63% 1.78

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COMMODITIES:

INDUSTRIAL METALS: DAILY CHART: -2.69%/ Week @ 252.60

 “Lows @ Risk........; FED ‘normalizes’ & intensifies the DEFLATION?” 11/06
 “Support @ $249.5 next in line as a potentially S/T Dead- Cat bounce witnessed?” was the Bias &
the Bull Flag now ‘past’ with connotations that beyond $249.40/50 Supports @ the Lows @ Risk?

INDUSTRIAL METALS: (WEEKLY)

 “Over- Sold Territory for 6+ Mths?” 01/22 “$279/ $289 still ‘out there’… $280 Equality”
 DMI in Sell Mode with MACD still below Zero & threatening a Sell; Final Leg of the Bust???

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GOLD ($GOLD) DAILY CHART: +1.37%/ Week
 “Apparent Triangle being mapped out that should thrust higher > $1264.” 02/26
 “Risks below $1225 to $1185 S/ T; Support @ $1285/95 critical for the Faithful”. 03/25
 Fleet of Foot Tactical Types could play a Long Trade with Target ABOVE $1287 (4%+).

GOLD WEEKLY CHART: “Medium- Term....Counter- Rally of substance.......$1190/ $1230.” 12/11

 “61.8% @ $1285...& another Indecisive Wkly Chart lends itself to $1185 visit shortly?” 03/18
 Rising 50day SMA & then the $1195 Support defines the Risks to the Tactical Long Trade.

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COPPER DAILY CHART: -3.57%/ Week
 Dr Copper back front & centre as the 61.8% retrace of Gains ($1.94/ $2.32) @ $2.09 Basis
Weekly Close; the BIGGER & far more nuanced Analysis (with connotations for Commodities
& Risk?) is the apparent BUT Minor breach @ $2.067......Lows @ Risk with Risk Assets too?

WEEKLY CHART: “Copper’s Rally since $2.42 only be a repeat of previous Counter Rallies” 05/15
 “Bottom…..a Low of Significance….Higher?... Technical Studies CAN support such.” 02/26
 “Dr Copper somewhat ‘absent’ in market machinations of late (2016) BUT now signalling
something afoot with losses threatening a Test/ Break of the $1.936 Lows? Monitor.” INDEED!

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 WEST TEXAS INTERMEDIATE DAILY ($WTIC): +8.27%/ Week

 WTI’s consolidation > $42 done NOTHING wrong to suggest New Lows doable M/T.” 7/03/15
 “Stability or simply Volatility < $35bbl?: Nothing Obvious still to Signal a Major LOW.” 01/29
 “Crude ‘in search of a Low’? $35.50 = ‘hurdle’ to surmount & stabilize matters.” 02/12
 “$41.42 (0.618) there for the testing…still very much the ‘Risk’ M/ Term.” 03/11
 “Indecisive Day Friday post the $42.49 High ($41.42 Target)…..retrace of gains (38%) back to
the series of Lows witnessed circa $36+ before Longer Term intention revealed?” 03/18

 “Support @ $36.20/25 still likely to be tested next few Weeks as Crude Oil digests better than
‘healthy’ Gains from Lows (63%!).”…….10% losses previous 2 Weeks nearly all regained @
+8 ¼ %; $36 Test unfolds with a successful result (we measure Weekly Closes); “failure occur
there ($36.25) then $32.30 likely as the Huge Rally simply takes a deeper ‘breath’?” STILL the
case & potentially so as the Commodity ‘Complex’ ex- Crude cracks? Above $41.35 negates.

PERFORMANCE MATRIX for COMMODITIES (S&P500):

1/8/16 3/11/16 4/1/16 4/8/16 Wkly Beta Mthly Beta Qrtly Beta
S&P500 1922.03 2022.19 2072.78 2047.60 -1.21% 1.00 1.26% 1.00 6.53% 1.00
CRB Index 168.58 173.53 168.03 171.04 1.79% -1.47 -1.43% -1.14 1.46% 0.22
COPPER $2.02 $2.24 $2.17 $2.09 -3.69% 3.03 -6.70% -5.33 3.47% 0.53
WTI $32.88 $38.49 $36.63 $39.66 8.27% -6.81 3.04% 2.42 20.62% 3.16
GSCI (Ind) 242.94 265.55 259.58 252.60 -2.69% 2.21 -4.88% -3.88 3.98% 0.61
GOLD $1,104.10 $1,251.10 $1,223.30 $1,240.10 1.37% -1.13 -0.88% -0.70 12.32% 1.89
BALTIC 429 388 450 539 19.78% -16.3 38.92% 30.97 25.64% 3.92

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Worthy #’s of note from the week:

China: FX Reserves: ‘Increase’ $10.3B to %3.21Tr; Capital Flight still occurring.

German: Industrial Production: Declines 0.5%MoM in Feb. (+2.3%); +1.3%YoY.

Trade: Exports Up 1.3%MoM (-0.6%) in Feb & Imports +0.4%MoM (+1.3%MoM).

Japan: Consumer Sentiment: 41.7 (40.1); beating expectations with all sub- indices higher.

US: Factory Orders: Fall 1.7% in February post January’s +1.2% gain.
Services PMI: 54.5 from 53.4; Employment @ 50.3 (49.7) & New Orders 56.7 (55.5).
Trade Balance: Deficit expands to $47.1B; Exports +$1.8B & Imports +$3.0BMoM.
JOLTS: Little changed @ 5.4million; Quits similar @ 3million (2.1%).
Weekly Mortgage #’s: Refi’s +7% & Purchases -2% (SA); Average 30year Fixed
Mortgage Rate @ 3.86% (3.94%) with Points @ 32bps (36bps).
Weekly Claims: -9K @ 267K (276K); 4-week average @ 266.75k.
Consumer Credit: Up $17.2B (+$14.9B) in February; beating expectations.
FOMC: Deterioration in global financial market conditions yet to be resolved.
Baker Hughes Rig #’s: Down 8 @ 354; lowest since November 2009.

This Week these matter:

Monday: Aust. Home Loans/ China PPI, CPI/ Italy IP/ US FED’s Kaplan @ the mic

Tuesday: Aust. NAB Biz Confidence/ China Trade/ German CPI/ UK PPI, RPI/ US NFIB, ExIm
Prices, CBO Budget, FED’s Harper, Williams & Lacker all @ the mic

Wednesday: Aust. Consumer Conf./ Japan PPI/ US Mortgage Apps, Retail, Atlanta FED, Beige Book

Thursday: Aust. Jobs/ EU HICP/ UK BoE Minutes/ US Claims, CPI, FED’s Lockhart & Powell

Friday: China GDP, IP, Retail Sales/ Italy & EU Trade #’s/ US Empire State, IP, Consumer
Sentiment, TiCs, Baker Hughes, FED’s Evans

DISCLAIMER
Nothing contained in this report is intended to constitute a recommendation or advice addressed to an individual
investor or category of investors to purchase, sell or hold any security, or take any action with respect to the
prospective movement of the security markets or to solicit the purchase or sale of any security. Any investment
decision must be made by the reader either individually or in concert with his or her investment advisor. The
author will not respond to any communications requesting investment advice. Any positions held are in an
independently managed fund, not by the author.

(Charts used in this report are from Stockcharts.com & netdania.com)

(For intra- Weekly update see: quincecapital.blogspot.com.au)

(Copyright ©: Steven McDonald/ THE WEEKLY)

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