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NUMBER
78-AU-32S

THE USE OF-CRITICAL PATH MODELING TO ANALYZE PRODUCTION IN UNDERGROUND HINES

. William J. Douglas
Manager, Operations Research Division

Albert J. Herhal
Program Manager, Underground Mining Systems

Barry S. Resnick
Senior Systems Analyst

Edward B. RockOiver
Systems Analyst

Ketron, Inc.
Hayne, Pennsylvania
For presentation at the 1978 SHE-AIHE Fall Heeting
Lake Buena Vista, Florida - Se tember 11-1 ]
 1 78-AU-325
The Use of Critical Path Modeling to Analyze
Production in Underground Mines
William J. Douglas
Albert J. Hemal
Barry S. Resnick
Edward B. Rockower
Introduction
Critical path modeling (CPM) has been used
widely as a tool to manage large-scale projects
having many activities which are conducted in
series or parallel. The construction industry is
a regular user of critical path modeling as a
planning tool. In this context, the method is
used to provide an orderly schedule for all activi-
ties to forecast delays, slippages, and problem
areas and to identify critical activities where
resources should be directed. It also identifies
others which have slack time, and provIdes in-
formation on the degrees of freedom and flexi-
bility available in completing the proj ect.
The purpose of applying critical path modeling
to an underground mining system is not primarily
for scheduling, but as an analysis tool. In ob-
serving underground mining systems, it Is clear
that repeated sequences of activities must take
place for mining to proceed efficiently. Some' of
these activities must be sequential, while others
be carrIed out in parallel. . to evalua!:.1? system behavior. Emphasis is
The fundamental difference between critical
path modeling applied to mining versus a large-
scale construction project are: - . ministic. Since economy precludes repeated runs,
(1) The activities in a mining system are
cyclic in nature.
(2) The location of the activity varies, and
the entire process is not thought of as
co-located, as is the case in a con-
structipn project.
Another important aspect of the network devel-
opment for mining ~ystems is the degree of detail
that is desired. One can be concerned with very
macroscopic networks which represent, for
example, an entire mine life cycle. Networks
representing this problem would be more closely
analogous to those of a large construction pro-
ject. On the other hand, one might be interested
in evaluating alternative ways of developing a
property or of mining in a given section. More
detailed networks representing the section ac-
tivities are necessary to evaluate system para-
meters and their impact on long-term production.
Our objective is to provide a framework within
which an arbitrary amount of detail is allowable.
A detailed network can then be replaced I;ly its
critical path, and the corresponding time dura-
tion would be the total time required to complete
the critical activities. These values can then be
utilized in more macroscopic networks to eval-
uate problems of a broader nature.
Pre-mine planning is essential for the full
exploitation of the coal deposit. Toassist
management in the decision making process,
simulation programs have been developed. Cur-
rently there are a number of detailed models
designed to provide insight into single shift
production. Pennsylvania State University's
Underground Materials Handling Simulator (1)
is an excellent tool for evaluating system
changes, since the activities required to com-
plete each step of the mining process are
modeled in detail.
The execution of a simulation model permits
management to observe and evaluate the dyna-
mic behavior of a mining system under diverse
conditions. By changing independent para-
meters, controlled experimentation of system
behavior may be accomplished. Judicious use of
simulation schemes provides management with
the ability to isolate factors influencing pro-
duction, design innovative mining systems, and
provide cost benefit analysis for equipment
selection. In other words, digital simulation
provides a method for analyzing prob}ems that
often cannot be solved by other means - either
because there is no tractable analytical solution
to the problem or because other solUtions prove
to be time-donsuming and costly.
In mining systems simulation, equipment
moves are progressed through time as a means
placed on simulating single or multiple shifts
with input variables that essentially are deter-
the probab'ility distribution of production is not
available. The important issue is that the
shift is simulated only once. Although input
values may be drawn randomly I the simulation
is not Monte Carlo, since the shift is not re-
peated with alternative values from the input
distributions. The detail of event simulation
at the microscopic level precludes the ability
to use the model in a Monte Carlo mode Without
incurring unjustifiable computer costs.
Another aspect of detailed shift simulation
is that long-term effects are not visible. Belt
movement, power center movement, and large-
scale changes in geometry are not analyzed
directly within the context of the mod'el. System
failure, delqys and other random phenomena
cannot be modeled effectively. That is not to
say that these parameters cannot be evaluated;
in fact, this type of model currently has wide
applications in evaluating mine production
since it produces a level of detail down to a
single shuttle carload. However, as a result
of this detail, long-term effects, including
random failures and long-term production
distributions are not available.
The purpose of a critical path model is to
reduce the level of detail of activities in order to
provide more inSight into long-term effects. The
detailed simulation models or industrial engineer-
 2 78-AU-325
ing time studies can be used to provide inputs to
the critical path model. This interface is useful
and each of the techniques has its place for ap-
plication by the mining systems analyst.
Networks For Underground Mining
A critical path network is a set of inter-con-
nected activities required to complete a desired
project. Each activity has a specified start and
finish point, and the network defines the logical
interaction, such that certain activities cannot
proceed until others are finished. Any number
of references are available describing the critical
path concept, the algOrithm, and its applications
(2). A critical path is defined as a path through
the network which has no slack time, so that
eacn succeeding activity must be initiated im-
mediately following the completion of all prede-
cessors. Any delays along this path will induce
an overall project delay, whereas limited delays
along other paths can be absorbed within the
availab Ie s lack time.
Consider Figure I, which represents a simple
network at a very macroscopic level. Figure 1
illustrates a set of six activities and six events.
The activities are defined below the figure as
the development and retreat mining of three
longwall panels. The duration for completing
each of the mining steps is defined.. Below the
example, the data required to evaluate the criti-
cal path is illustrated. The interpretation of this
data is as follows.
To complete activity 1-2 requires three time
units. The only path by which event 2 can be
reached is from event 1. Hence, 1-2 must
necessarily be on the critical path. Now, from
the input durations, it can be seen that activity
2 -3, the retreat mining of panel 1, requires four
time units, while activity 2 -4, the development
of gates for panel 2, requires five time units.
The table illustrates the time required to reach
each of the J locations from,each of the possible
I's, through all possible paths. Since there are
only two paths through the network, the critical
path is quite obvious. Proceeding along path
1-2-3-5, we reach event 5 in eleven time units.
Proceeding along path 1-2-4-5, we reach event 5
in twelve time units. Consequently_, the mining
of panel 3 (activity 5-6) cannot be iriitiated be-
fore twelve units have elapsed. The circled
activities and corresponding times represent the
critical path and the cross-hatch on each activity
illustrates the critical path on the network. The
results indicate that the project will be completed
within eighteen time units, and that a slack period
of one time unit exists on the 2-3-5 loop_
The principles illustrated in this simple exam-
ple can be used to analyze production in more de-
tail. Let us assume that in order to develop a
panel, it is necessary to advance the belt and
power center ten times. Now, we can consider
that activity 1-2 in Figure 1 represents a set of
many sub-activities required to develop the
gates for panel 1. Expanding activity 1-2
by one level of detail provides us with more
visibility on the production process.
Figure 2 illustrates a simple series network
for completing the development of panel 1. A
block of coal, for this example, is defined as
the set of cuts taken between belt moves, and
belt moves are regularly spaced after a certain
level of advance has been achieved. It might
take one shift to move the belt, and perhaps
ten shifts to mine the block of coal between
belt moves. Hence, the time to move from 1 to
2 is computed by adding the times for each of
the series activities. This network is a trivial
one, since it is a simple series of activities.
Expanding the mining. of a block of coal
one more level of detail provides a more inter-
esting insight into face operations. Figure 3
illustrates a sample cut sequence in a five
entry system. One block of coal is defined as a
set of cuts required to advance through one
cross-cut. The objective is to develop a critical
path network for the mining of a singl~ block
in order to replace any of the activities, MBI,
in Figure 2 by this network.
Figure 4 ilIustrates a critical path network
for conventional mining of this coal block.
Each diaponal element represents a machine-
specific activity occurring within a place:
vertical elements represent tramming to the next
available place. For example, the activity L3
represents the loading of the working place in
Entry 3. When the activity is completed, the
loader trams to Entry 2 (L32) where the loading
activity L2 occurs.
A necessary constraint in the development of
a critical path network is that no activity begins
until all predecessor activities have been com-
pleted. Therefore, in order for the loading activ-
ity in Entry 2 to begin two predecessor events
must occur - the place must be drilled and shot,
and the loader must tram to the place. To ensure
that all predecessor events are completed, dum-
my activities are used. A dummy activity of
zero duration is represented by dashed lines in
the network. Since, by convention, an activity
starting at a node does not begin until all activ-
ities ending at that node are finished, the dummy
activity has the effect of making activities start-
ing at one node dependent upon the activities
ending at another node _ The dummy activity be-
tween node A and node B fixes the starting time
of activity L2 to the latest time of the following
activities: loader tram from Entry 3 to Entry. 2,
Entry 2 is drilled and shot.
I The blasting or shooting operation has been
combined with the face drill activity.
 3 78-AU-325
The network can be extended indefinitely to
model any desired number of cuts. Figure 5 il-
lustrates a closed network required to load five
cuts. Here the endless cycle is eliminated by
assuming a definitive start andfinish for the net-
work.. Inputs to the critical path analysis are
intended to be machine place times. These are
available through the results of underground time
studies I or from exercising simulation models.
(e.g. I Ref. (1)). Since a place time is used to
replace the detailed face activities I long-term
effects can be modeled effectively.
Simulation
In the discussion above, the durations of each
activity are assumed to be deterministic variables
specified by input. In fact, these variables are
stochastic, and the actual time distribution for
completion of any activity at a face depends on
mining conditions, operator efficiency, geometry I
mining plan, equipment reliability and other fac-
tors.
In order to determine the effect of these system
parameters, it would be necessary to develop
distribUtion for each activity. Figure 6 illus-
trates conceptual place time and tram time dis-
tributions required for each machirie 't·o complete
a
the activities at face I or to complete the mter-
face trams. It is possible t.o define more cate-
gories for the distributions, since tramming be-
tween adjacent places requires less time than
tramming between the two outer most places in a
section. Furthermore, the place t:l,me for an ad-
vancing cut may be different from the place Ume
for a cross-cut. Such variations are allowable,
and a distribution for each cut or cut pair can be
defined.
The parameters for each distribution would de-
pend on its shape, as obtained from time study
data. They might simply be the mean. and stan-
dard deviation for a normal distribution. The
shapes of the distributions would also be in-
" nuenced by delays and machine fallures I for
which separate distributions also could be devel-
oped.
The simulation process consists of randomly
selecting activity durations from the distribution
for each machine/place activity. The inputs to
the cl'itical path analysis can be input a priori,
i.e., if the network has 32 lifts and 264 real
activities I then 264 random selections are made
and related to the corresponding activities in
the' network. The CPM algorithm is then exer-
cised in order to establish the duration of the
"project" time distribution based on a large
number of runs I thereby using the stochastic
critical path model in true Monte Carlo fashion.
Another factor to be considered consists of the
integer constraints imposed by shifts of finite
duration. It may not be meaningful to initiate an
activity if it cannot be completed during a given
shift. This constraint limits production, since
partial completion of an activity would be useful
work and should be encouraged. However,
many machine operators termire te actiVities
when they feel completion of a full lift is not
feasible.
To overlay the shift effect, it is necessary
to post-process the network and correct for
these edge effects by adding corresponding
times which represent shift terminations. An
alternative method is to process the network
as an event simulation rather than by direct
application of the CPM algorithm. By stepping
through time the status of aU machines is
established near the end of each shift in order
to re-initiate the process accurately in a
subsequent shift. Processing the networks
in this fashion is I in fact, a true simulation.
However I the added detail and simulation nature
of this approach is time consuming and will
use more computer time than the application of
the CPM algorithm.
Application of Computer Model
I
To assess the significance of the stochastic
behavior of mining variables on production
levels I a computer program was written to solve
the CPM algorithm using Monte Carlo techniques.
The CPM algorithm is applied repetitively to a
network to determine a series of minimum com-
pletion times each of which is obtained by assigtl'"'
ing a sample valUe to every activity. Each
sample value is derived from an assumed prob-
ability distribution by means of some type of
random number generation. The set of values
obtained from the simulation is used to estimate
a production distribution and other parameters
of interest.
As a first-order approximation, machine
activity duration and tram times are assumed
normally distributed. Random variates based on
a normal probability distribution are generated
by the Central Limit approach (3). Random
failures are assumed to be statistically indepen-
dent occurrences so that the time between failures
is exponentially distributed. Random exponential
variates for the time between failures are gener-
ated using the inverse transformation technique.
Duration of a failure 1s assumed normally
distributed.
To illustrate the CPM model, a number of rep-
resentative cases were run 1 • Mean place time
1 The purpose of the examples is to demonstrate
the model and to show trends rather than to draw
substantive conclusions as to the impact of
probabilistic effects on production. The computer
program currently has restrictive dimensional re-
qUirements which limit the number of cuts that can
be modeled. Improvements to the program are
being made so that more realistic situations may
be modeled. Random failures are not included
in the examples.
 4 78-AU-325
for each machine was obtained from underground
time studies (4). Place time includes all activ-
ities associated with the machine unit operation 2 •
Listed in Table 1 are five examples: Case I
through Case IV. Case II represents a base case
from which certain parameters were varied to
generate the other cases. In Cases It II, and
III, a machine place time was varied. In Cases
II, IV, and V, this standard deviation from the
mean was varied. The conventional network
shown in Figure 4 was modeled.
The frequency distributions of completion
times resulting from repetitive executions of the
CPM algorithm are shown in Figures 7 and 8.
Mean face time is included in Table 1. Cases
I, II, and ill shown in Figure 7 differ only in
the place time required by the loader. -As ex-
pected, the machine with the longest place time
dominates the system. Comparable mean time to
complete a fixed number of cuts are computed for
both Case I and Case II where the maximum
machine place times are equal; however, the
effect of a relatively minor increase in loader
place time (Case ill) propagates itself throughout
the shift resulting in a higher mean completion
time.
More important is the variation in completion
time within each case. Included in Table 1 is
the range of time within which ninety percent of
the data falls. A difference in twenty-five
to thirty minutes to complete the same number of .
- cuts translates directly into a potential loss of
one cut, due primarily to the variability within the
system.
Cases II, 'IV., and V demonstrate the effect of
the distribUtion of place time for a given machine
(the bolter) on the mean completion time. The
shape of the bolter place time distribution was
varied by changing the standard deviation from
mean. Case IV represents a purely deterministic
place time. Mean times were not affected
signifkantly by minor changes in place time
distribution shape.
Of equal import is the probability that a spe-
cific machine will be on the critical path. Ideal-
ly ,one would like the loader on the critical path
provided that the loader was operating at or near
. peak efficiency. To estimate the probability of
being on the critical path, the percentage of
occurrence on the critical path was compiled for
each machine. This data is included in Table II
. for each case.
2 These activities vary with each machine and
include, in general, inspection and preparation
of place, gas test, and certain machine-specific
activities.
These cases provide a sample of the type
of analysis that can be performed by this
modeling technique. By combining a critical
path network with existing production data
a current mining system can be "fine-tuned"
for present conditions, and changes to the
system structure may be assessed within
a probabilistic framework. These changes
may range from deviations in development
plans to implementation of new maintenance
poliCies. Furthermore, with proper selection
of the level of detail from which the system is
modeled, repetitive execution of a CPM al-
gorithm may be substantially less costly than
comparable fixed time increment simulations.
References
1. Manula, C.B., Bouillot, A., Rivell, R.,
and Sanford, R., "A Master Environmental
Control and Mine System Design Simulator
for Underground Coal Mining - Production
Subsystem, If Volume VI, June 1974, United
States Bureau of Mines, Washington, D. C.
)
2. Buffa, E.S., and Dyer, J.S., Management
Science/Operations Research, John Wiley
and Sons, Inq., New York, 1977, pp. SBl-
559.
3. Naylor, T.H., Balintfy, J.L., Burdick, D.S.,
and Chu, K., c"omputer Simulation Techniques,
John Wiley and Sons, Inc., New York, 1968,
pp. 68-102.
4. Douglas, W.J., and Herhal, A.J., "Industrial
Engineering Evaluation of Underground Con-
ventional Mining Equipment, If Final Report,
1976, KETRON, Inc., Wayne, Pa.
 TAB'LE 1

SAMPLE CASES FOR CRITICAL PATH MODEL

Case I Case II Case III Case W Case V

Mean
Place Time
Standard I Mean
Deviation Place Time
(Min.) (Min.)
Standard
Deviation
(Min.)
Mean
Place Time
(Min.)
I
Standard
(Min.)
IMean
(Min.)
I
Standard
Deviation Plaoe Time Deviation
(Min.)
Mean I Standard
Place Time Deviation
(Min.) (Min.) (Min.)

Cutter 20 2.0 20 2.0 20 2.0 20 2.0 20 2.0

~----~-----+--------+-------4-------~--------~-------+--- ____ +_______ ~-------~-------~-------I m

Drill/Shoot 20 2.0 20 2.0 20 2.0 20 2.0 20 2.0

~----------t---------+------,_t-------_f--------t-------- -------f_---------------
Loader 25 3.0 30 3,0 35 3.0 30 3.0 30 3.0
--------------------~-------_t-------_f-------~-------+_------+-------f_-------~------f_-------

Bolter 30 3.0 30 3.0 30 3.0 30 0.0 30 6.0

-----------....--------...-------_f--------I--------I--------.1..----.---+-------.. . . . ------f_-------.. . -------,
Mean
Completion 179.5 185.2 206.2 183.8 188.4
- __________1 _____________ _
Time (Minutes) ---l-------------+---------------l--------------I-----------_____,
Range 30.0
30.0 25.0 25.0 25.0 "en
(Minutes)
J.
if
w
N
VI
 78-AU-325

TABLE 2

PERCENTAGE OF TIME ON CRITICAL PATH

Case I Case IT Case TII Case N Case V

Cutter 10 5 0 8 3
r-------------- - - - - -,--
. -- --------- '---------- ~----- ---------
Drill/Shoot 23 17 8 25 14
r------------- ------ -------- f-------- -------- ---------
Loader 8 52 86 51 46
r-------------- --------- -------- f--------- --------'---------
Bolter 59 26 6 16 37

.'
 78-AU-3ZS

."

L L Activity Duration
1 2 Development of Butt Entries
or Gates for panel 1 3
2, 3 Mine Panel 1 4
2 - 4
.
- .-_.-
Development for panel 2 5
~~----.---,-----

-', 3·- S Development for panel 3 4 '"

4 - 5 Mine panel 2 4
5 - 6 Mine panel 3 6

To Node r 1 2 3 4 .5 6
Prom Node I
Time 0 C) 2
7 W 3
11 C)
Prom Node I
Time G)

MINE CRITICAL PATH EXAMPLE

PIGURE 1.
 MBI HI PI MB2 H2 P2 MB3 H3 P3 MB8 H8 P8 MB9 H9 P9 MBIO
1 J--..u-""'O-u----<J--4::>-..O ..--o--o-u-

MBI: Mine Block "I"

HJ Haulage Move "J" "

PK Power Move "K"

G,0 From Figure I

co

SEQUENCE FOR TEN BLQCKS, HAULAGE AND

POWER MOVES IN DEVELOPING PANEL I
-..J
0)
FIGURE 2. I
~I
w
N
VI
r

9 78-AU-325

r---

'---
51' 50 49 48 47
46 45 44 43 42
t---
29 27 25 23 21/
20 -!.L 18 17 16
co , g; ~ ~ ~
N

~ ~ "'"
0 <0
~ N C'7 ~ ~ 13 ~ ~ N N
15 14 "'" 12
.
11
10 9 ~
8, 7 - - - 6
-- -.---~---- --~.~-

• BqLTED
5 4 .- 3
BEING
2
BEING
1
BEING BEING
CUT DRIT.LED tOADED BOLTED
AND
SHOT

ENTRY
1
n n n n ENTRY
2
ENTRY
3
ENTRY
4
ENTRY
5

CONVENTIONAL MINING CUT SEQUENCE

IN FIVE-ENTRY PLAN

FIGURE 3.
 Node
Loader
B
Arrives
At Place

Bolter
Arrives

Cutter
Arrives

Dri
Arrives

D54
>-'
Node o
A

Diagonal: Machine face Activities Vertical; Machine Place Changes

C Cut Place i C , D , L , B ; TramFrom

i 1j 1j 1j 1j

Dl Drm/Shoot Place ! Place i to Place j

Ll Load Place!

Bl Bolt Place i

CRITICAL PATH NETWORK FOR . "'-J

(XI
CONVENTIONAL MINING OF COAL BLOCK ~
?
w
FIGURE 4.
'"
In
 '.

-'

u '046
START 1 FINISH

.....
.....

CRITICAL PATH NE'lWORK FOR

FIVE-ENTRY CONVENTIONAL MINING SYSTEM

FIGURE 5.

'-J
00
I
ElI
W
'"
1I1
 12 78-AU-325

Pc

/\
TIME
P
n

TIME

P
L

TIME
P
B

A TIME

CONCEPTUAL PLACE TIME PROBABILITY DISTRmUTIONS

FOR MACHINE ACTIVITIES

FIGU~E 6.
 13 78-AU-325

CASE I

Frequency
of
Completion
Time

160 170 180 190

CASE II

Frequency
of
Completion
Time
}

.
180 190 200 210

CASE m
Frequency
of
Completion
Time

160 170 180 190 200 210 220 230

Completion Time (Min.)

FREQUENCY DISTRffiUTION
VARIATION IN LOADER PLACE TIME

FIGURE 7.
 14 78-AU-325

CASE N

Frequency
of
Completion
Time

160 170 180 190

CASE II

Frequency
of
Completion
Time

180 190

CASE V

.Frequency
of
Completion -
Time

180 190

Completion Time (Min.)

FREQUENCY DISTRIBUTION
VARiATION IN BOLTER STANDARD DEVIATION

FIGURE 8.