Production Management

Homework/Assignment 1
Full Name of submitter: Student ID:

Your Group number is: ……..

Title of your Group project is: ……..

Contents of questions
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● Operation Management 7th edition:

● 12.2, 12.3, 12.5, 12.7.
Or:
● Operation Management 6th edition:
● 12.16, 12.23, 12.19, 12.27.

Note:

- Continue using this form to complete your works and submit on Blackboard
- Name your file
o If you submit individually: Promana_HW1_StudentID_FullName
o If you submit for a group (Group # are as per the number you have registered as
guided in the file “Semester Project Requirement” and be finalized by lecturer):
2122Promana_HW1_G#
- Due Date is defined in detail at each “ ASSIGNMENT INFORMATION” from Blackboard
- Maximum score of late submission is two third of “Point Possible”
- If you can’t submit on Blackboard: Email your work to TA, copy it to your Lecturer, attached
also the screenshot of your Blackboard showing error in that transaction

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Answers/Works

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 Production Management

12.5 The chairperson of the department of management at Tech wants to

forecast the number of students who will enroll in operations management next
semester in order to determine how many sections to schedule. The chair has
accumulated the following enrollment data for the past eight semesters:

a) Compute a three-semester moving average forecast for semesters 4 through 9

3
Di
. MA = ∑
i=1
3
3

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b) Compute the exponentially smoothed forecast ( α =0.20) for the enrollment

data.

F 2=α D1 +(1 − α )F 1

c) Compare the two forecasts using MAD and indicate the most accurate.
● Using MAD on three-semester moving average forecast

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MA D 1=
∑ |Dt − Df |= 306.67 =¿61,33
n 5

● Using MAD on exponentially smoothed forecast

MA D 2=
∑ |Dt − D f|= 424.92 =¿70.42
n 7

MA D1=61.33
{
 After using MAD on both forecasting methods we have MAD =70.42
2

  MAD1 < MAD2 The three-semester moving average forecasting

method is more accurate than the exponentially smoothed forecast

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