Geoderma 309 (2018) 113–114

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Geoderma
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Letter to editor

Comments on soil carbon 4 per mille by Minasny et al. 2017 MARK

A R T I C L E I N F O

Handling Editor: Dr. Jan Willem van Groenigen

In the Highlights section Minasny et al. (2017) state: “Soil carbon sequestration can be the solution for mitigating climate change over the next
ten to twenty years.” They also echo the statement made by Lal (2004) that “as a strategy for climate mitigation, soil carbon sequestration buys time
over the next ten to twenty years while other effective sequestration and low carbon technologies become viable.” This is very optimistic, and there is
little evidence that would suggest it buys us any time at all.
The authors claim that 20–35% of global anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions can be offset by carbon sequestration in managed agricultural
soils. There are issues with the way these numbers were derived. The 4 per mille initiative uses the value of 8.9 Gt of C emissions per year from fossil
fuels as the metric for mitigation. However, this represents only about 65% of the total greenhouse gas emissions from anthropogenic sources (in
2010 65% was about 8.9 Gt of C or about 32 Gt CO2 eq. yr− 1), with CO2 from forestry and other land use, CH4, N2O and fluorinated gases
representing the remaining 35% (or about 17 Gt CO2 eq. yr− 1) (Edenhofer et al., 2014). This would reduce the Minasny et al. (2017) potential to 14
to 23% of total emissions. Minasny et al. (2017) also consider the top 1 m of soil globally in their calculation of manageable soil organic carbon stock.
It is evident from many studies that typically only the top 20 to 30 cm of the soil profile can be effectively managed for soil carbon, at least in existing
agricultural soils in temperate agroecosystems (VandenBygaart et al., 2011). Indeed, most differences in soil organic carbon noted in Table 1 of the
Minasy et al. (2017) paper are observed within the top 30 cm depth. Considering that typically > 50% of soil organic carbon stocks tend to be
situated in the subsoil (Scharlemann et al., 2014), this also results in overstating the potential. The proportion of carbon that is stored in the top
meter of the world soils below 30 cm ranges between 46 and 63% (Batjes, 1996). Land-use change can have an effect on subsoil carbon by, for
example, converting existing cropland to grassland. But more realistically only the top 30 cm of existing agricultural soils should be considered
rather than 1 m. A crude estimate would reduce the Minasny et al. (2017) potential mitigation range to less than half, sayto 5–10% of total CO2
emissions from fossil fuels and industry (although a more precise estimate is warranted). This range would be in line with those of authors Sommer
and Bossio (2014), along with some previous assessments by Paustian et al. (2004) and Smith et al. (2008) listed in that work. But even these
mitigation potentials are quoted as a proportion of 8–9 Gt C yr− 1 emissions for fossil fuels and industry only. At these levels of greenhouse gas offset
potential, Sommer and Bossio (2014) concluded that the potential mitigation of climate change through soil organic carbon management was modest
at best.
Mitigation potentials also have to consider economic reality and the cruel truth that we must be able to feed a population of over 9 billion people
by 2050. Considering economic constraints, Smith et al. (2008) determined that the mitigation potential from all of agriculture for 2030 was between
about 1.5–4.3 Gt CO2-eq yr− 1 at carbon prices between 20 and 100 US$/t CO2-eq (< 10% of anthropogenic emissions in 2010). And cropland
management represented 0.75 CO2-eq yr− 1, regardless of the C price. Even these estimates can be optimistic because it only refers to mitigation that
doesn't consider socio-cultural or institutional limitations to adopting any new practice or technology (Smith et al., 2014; Smith, 2012).
The 4 per mille initiative is a very important program to increase soil organic carbon in the world's soils, and the Minasny et al. (2017) paper is a
very good summary of the potential. The initiative will be critical to not only ameliorating degraded soils but also to improve the health of all
existing agricultural soils, and to aid in adapting the world's soils to climate change. But we have to be careful as scientists to not overstate the
potential to mitigate climate change through soil carbon sequestration; otherwise we risk being looked at in hindsight as false prophets by future
generations if the potentials are not realized.

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http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.geoderma.2017.05.024
Received 2 May 2017; Accepted 2 May 2017
Available online 28 June 2017
0016-7061/ Crown Copyright © 2017 Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Letter to editor Geoderma 309 (2018) 113–114

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A.J. VandenBygaart
Agriculture & Agri-food Canada, Ottawa, Ontario, Canada

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