Vietnam Economy and Stock Market: Post-Lockdown Acceleration

Strategy report | Nov 2021
VIETNAM ECONOMY AND STOCK MARKET

Post-lockdown acceleration
Research team
Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam)
PLEASE SEE ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES & DISCLAIMERS IN APPENDIX 1 AT THE END OF REPORT.
Contents
I. Vietnam economy 10M21 review and outlook 3

II. Vietnam stock market review 20
III.Vietnam stock market prospects 28
IV. Sector outlook 36
V. Stock recommendations 42
2 | Vietnam focus: Strategy Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research

I. Vietnam economy 10M21 review and outlook
❑ After plunging in 3Q21, Vietnam's economy has initially rebounded in October, amid a loosening
of social distancing measures and acceleration of COVID-19 vaccinations. Specifically, in October,
industrial production and retail sales of consumer goods and services narrowed their declines
(although remaining sluggish compared with the same period last year), disbursement of public
investment accelerated compared with the previous month, FDI attraction maintained a double-
digit growth rate, and the trade balance remained in a surplus for the second consecutive
month. In addition, inflation and exchange rate have remained stable in 10M21.
❑ We maintain our forecast for Vietnam's GDP to grow at 4% in 4Q21 and 2.3% in 2021, in a
scenario where the economy gradually accelerates from mid-October, driven by public
investment and FDI inflows. We believe the two main growth drivers should be boosted when
the economy opens up in the last months of 2021.
❑ Key obstacles to Vietnam’s economic recovery to watch for: 1) a possible shortage of labor after
a prolonged period of social distancing; 2) Vietnam’s slower-than-expected pace of COVID-19
vaccinations; and 3) a possible increase in the number of community infections following the
easing of social distancing measures.
❑ According to our estimates, Vietnam's 2022 GDP could reach a range of between 5.7%−6.2% in
the base-case scenario, where Vietnam reopens the economy successfully. Growth engines for
Vietnam’s economy in 2022 include: 1) an expected boost to FDI inflows, as Vietnam remains an
attractive destination for the global wave of FDI; 2) the government’s promotion of public
investment; and 3) exports regaining momentum, thanks to improving domestic production and
recovering external demand. In addition, policies to support the economy, maintain low lending
interest rates, stabilize the macroeconomy, and promote digital transformation of governments
and businesses play an important role in the economic recovery.
Vietnam macroeconomic dashboard
Graph
Indicators Oct-20 Nov-20 Dec-20 Jan-21 Feb-21 Mar-21 Apr-21 May-21 Jun-21 Jul-21 Aug-21 Sep-21 Oct-21
(From Jan-2020 to Oct-2021)
COVID-19 trackers
Global new COVID-19 cases per million 1,556 2,215 2,585 2,498 1,431 1,888 2,887 2,480 1,456 1,989 2,444 2,020 1,553
Total global vaccination per hundred 0.12 1.28 3.28 7.71 14.6 24.91 39.54 52.17 67.22 79.74 88.49
New COVID-19 cases per million in Vietnam 0.9 1.7 1.2 3.6 6.5 1.6 3.3 46.3 98.8 1,354 3,050 3,348 1,218
Total vaccination per hundred in Vietnam 0.05 0.53 1.13 3.88 5.68 17.51 43.69 78.58
Vietnam's stringency index 55.6 45.6 53.5 58.5 70.9 61.6 54.0 73.7 77.3 78.3 76.3 72.7 67.1
Economic indicators
Index of Industrial production (monthly, % YoY) 5.4 9.2 9.5 22.2 -7.2 3.9 24.1 11.6 6.8 2.2 -7.4 -5.5 -1.6
PMI (point) 51.8 49.9 51.7 51.3 51.6 53.6 54.7 53.1 44.1 45.1 40.2 40.2 52.1
Retail sales growth (cumulative, % YoY) 1.3 2.0 2.6 6.4 5.5 5.1 10.0 7.6 4.9 0.7 -4.7 -7.1 -8.6
International traveller growth (monthly, % YoY) -99.1 -99.0 -99.0 -98.0 -97.0 -96.0 -25.8 -40.6 -18.0 -46.4 -43.0 -31.0 -28.8
FDI disbursement (monthly, % YoY) -2.5 -2.4 -2.0 -5.6 2.0 5.1 6.8 6.7 6.8 3.8 2.0 -3.5 -4.1
FDI registration (monthly, % YoY) -5.1 -3.2 -6.6 -62.9 -12.9 40.9 13.7 16.4 12.4 3.5 11.6 22.3 15.8
Export growth (cumulative, % YoY) 5.0 5.5 7.0 55.8 24.7 24.0 29.8 30.9 28.9 26.3 21.8 18.8 16.6
Import growth (cumulative, % YoY) 0.2 1.8 3.7 42.3 26.4 26.9 32.3 36.1 35.8 35.9 33.8 30.7 28.2
Trade balance (monthly, US$bn) 2.9 0.5 -0.3 2.1 -0.5 1.2 -1.2 -2.1 -0.5 -1.2 -0.1 0.4 1.1
CPI (% YoY) 2.47 1.48 0.19 -0.97 0.70 1.16 2.70 2.90 2.41 2.64 2.82 2.06 1.77
Credit growth (% YoY) 10.3 11.0 12.2 12.9 12.7 14.0 15.2 15.4 15.2 15.3 15.0 13.6 14.2
M2 growth (% YoY) 14.0 14.2 14.5 13.4 14.6 14.8 15.6 14.9 13.8 13.7 12.7 11.0 11.0
VND/US$ (% MoM) 0.0 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.2 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.19 -0.71 -0.1 -0.04
Stock market
VNIndex return (% MoM) 2.2 8.4 10.0 -4.3 10.6 2.0 4.0 7.2 6.1 -7.0 1.6 0.8 7.6
VN-Index's 20-day volatility 14.4 12.1 15.7 41.0 46.4 12.3 21.2 12.8 18.4 33.5 19.1 11.3 11.1
Source: GSO, Bloomberg, Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research compilation.

Note: Credit and M2 growth in September and October are estimated by MAS Vietnam Research.
Note: Red spots in graphs indicate negative data.

I.1 – Easing of social distancing measures
• After a month of easing of social distancing, the daily average number of new infections dropped to 4,125
Average number of new
cases in October from 10,955 new cases in September. In addition, Vietnam’s vaccination rates rose, reaching
cases down 23% of total population fully vaccinated against COVID-19 and 55.5% having at least one dose of the COVID-19
substantially decreased vaccine by the end-October (from 10% and 33.7%, respectively at the end-September). We believe it is highly
likely that Vietnam’s COVID-19 vaccination rate can reach over 70% by the end of 1Q22.
since September
Vietnam has accelerated the COVID-19 vaccination People vaccinated per hundred (%)
(# cases) (%)
New cases per million Total vaccinations per hundred (%) 90
160 90
80
140 80
70
70
120
60
60
100 50
50
80 40
40
60 30
30
40 20
20
20 10
10
0
0 0
Source: Our World in Data, Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research compilation Source: Our World in Data, Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research compilation

I.2 – Economic support plan
Plan to restructure the economy for 2021−2025 period submitted to the National Assembly
Plan Content
Striving for 80% of the population to have two vaccine doses by end-1Q22
Overall program to open the economy in
association with prevention and control of the To uniformly implement regulations on labor mobility, production and supply, and consumption
COVID-19 pandemic
Completely reopening tourism, air transportation, entertainment, cultural and art services, according to
roadmap, by June 2022
One-time support for social protection beneficiaries, people from poor households, and self-employed
workers
One-time support for living expenses for low-income workers

Social Security and Employment Program
Supporting the cost of buying health insurance in 2022 for unemployed workers
Job support
Taxes, fee exemptions and reductions; cutting interest rates, providing interest rate compensation for
priority subjects in some industries and fields.
Acquiring and investing in businesses in important industries that are facing difficulties due to COVID-19
Program to restore businesses, cooperatives, Reducing value-added tax rates on goods and services for consumption and living purposes
business households
Fee reduction, extension, and support; and electricity price support for industries heavily affected by
COVID-19, such as air transportation, road transportation, and tourism industry
Support input costs, electricity bills for Agriculture, Forestry, and Fishery industries
Support digital transformation and innovative start-ups
End-2021 and 1H22: investment preparation, site clearance, compensation, resettlement

Program to develop infrastructure, unlock social
resources for development investment From 2H22 and 2023: project implementation, accelerate disbursement of public investment capital;
aiming for annual disbursement rate of capital plan at about 95%
Source: Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research compilation

I.3 – Industrial production
❑ The decline in momentum of the Index of Industrial Production (IIP) in October (-1.6% YoY, +6.9 % MoM) narrowed compared
Industrial
with previous months (September: -5.5% YoY, August: -7.4% YoY), as provinces and cities have gradually loosened social
production distancing measures and production activities have initially recovered. Of these, the growth momentum of Electricity
narrowed its Production and Distribution (+2.4% YoY) and Water supply and Treatment of Waste and Wastewater (+1.5% YoY) partially
offset declines in Mining activities (-7.2% YoY) and Processing and Manufacturing (-1.6% YoY). In 10M21, IIP increased by 3.3%
decline in October
YoY (versus +2.7% YoY in 10M20).
❑ In 10M21, a number of key industrial products soared from a year earlier, namely phone components (+38.8% YoY), rolled
steel (+37.3% YoY), petroleum (+15.5% YoY), liquefied petroleum gas (+14.1% YoY), automobiles (+12.4% YoY), crude iron and
steel (+11.4% YoY), powdered milk (+9.6% YoY), animal feed (+9.5% YoY), and leather footwear (+8.5% YoY).
Monthly IIP Manufacturing IIP in 10M21
Basic metals 25.1

(% YoY) IIP Manufacturing and processing IIP
Motor vehicles 12.5
35 Coke, refined petroleum products 10.5
Textiles 7.8
30
Computer, electronic, optical products 6.4
25 Clothes 5.1
Manufacturing 4.5
20
Leather and related products 4.3
15 Manufacture of wood 3.6
Furniture 2.6
10
Paper and paper products 2.3
5 Machinery and equipment 1.3
0 Food products 1.0
Chemicals and chemical products -1.6
-5 Printing, recorded media reproduction -2.0
Seasonal effects Electrical equipment
-10 Seasonal effects -2.3
Rubber and plastic products -2.4
-15 Tobacco -2.8
Dec 19
Dec 20
Aug 19
Sep 19
Nov 19
Aug 20
Sep 20
Nov 20
Aug 21
Sep 21
Apr 19
Jun 19
Oct 19
Apr 20
Jun 20
Oct 20
Apr 21
Jun 21
Oct 21
Feb 19
Feb 20
Feb 21
Mar 19
May 19
Mar 20
May 20
Mar 21
May 21
Jan 19
Jul 19
Jan 20
Jul 20
Jan 21
Jul 21
Beverages -5.8
Pharmaceuticals -19.2 (% YoY)
Source: GSO, Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research compilation

I.3 – Industrial production (cont’d.)
• The Vietnam PMI rebounded above the 50-point threshold to reach 52.1 in October, after a four-month sequence of
Industrial
declines. Companies have restarted operations and increased production output to meet the increasing number of new
production orders amid easing of social distancing measures and improving demand.
expected to • Many provinces and cities have entered a new normalcy, while businesses and factories have reopened at 70%−90%
capacity, alongside continued focus on the vaccination campaign. Thus, we believe that industrial production will continue
rebound
to prosper in the last two months of this year. In 2022, factories and businesses are expected to return to business at full
capacity and ramp up their production, as both domestic demand and Vietnam's export markets increase.
Growth rate of some key products of industrial production in 10M21

(% YoY)
50
37.3 38.8
40
30
20 14.1 15.5
9.6 11.4 12.4
3.9 4.0 4.0 4.8 6.6 7.5 8.5 9.5
10 3.3 3.3
0.2 1.0 1.1 3.0 3.0
0
-10 -3.4 -3.3 -2.8 -1.9
-6.9 -6.6 -4.2
-20 -10.0 -9.0
-18.6
-30
-40
-50 -40.4

I.3 – Industrial production (cont’d.)
Vietnam’s PMI rebounded above the 50-point threshold in October
(Point) PMI 3-month average PMI

60
55
50
45
40
35
30
Oct 11 Apr 12 Oct 12 Apr 13 Oct 13 Apr 14 Oct 14 Apr 15 Oct 15 Apr 16 Oct 16 Apr 17 Oct 17 Apr 18 Oct 18 Apr 19 Oct 19 Apr 20 Oct 20 Apr 21 Oct 21
Manufacturing PMI
Region/Country Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20 Oct-20 Nov-20 Dec-20 Jan-21 Feb-21 Mar-21 Apr-21 May-21 Jun-21 Jul-21 Aug-21 Sep-21 Oct-21
Global 39.6 42.4 48.0 50.6 51.8 52.4 53.1 53.8 53.8 53.6 53.9 55.0
55.8 56.0 55.5 55.5 54.1 54.1
Euro Area 33.4 39.4 47.4 51.8 51.7 53.7 54.8 53.8 55.2 54.8 57.9 62.5
62.9 63.1 63.4 62.6 61.4 58.6 58.5
US 36.1 39.8 49.8 50.9 53.1 53.2 53.4 56.7 57.1 59.2 58.6 59.1
60.5 62.1 62.1 63.1 61.1 60.7 59.2
UK 32.6 40.7 50.1 53.3 55.2 54.1 53.7 55.6 57.5 54.1 55.1 58.9
60.7 65.6 63.9 60.4 60.3 57.1 57.7
Emerging
42.7 45.4 49.6 51.4 52.5 52.8 53.4 53.9 52.8 52.1 51.5 51.3
Markets 52.2 52.0 51.3 51.3 49.6 49.6 50.8
China 49.4 50.7 51.2 52.8 53.1 53.0 53.6 54.9 53.0 51.5 50.9 50.6
51.9 52.0 51.3 50.3 49.2 50.0 50.6
Japan 41.9 38.4 40.1 45.2 47.2 47.7 48.7 49.0 50.0 49.8 51.4 52.7
53.6 53.0 52.4 53.0 52.7 51.5 53.2
South Korea 41.6 41.3 43.4 46.9 48.5 49.8 51.2 52.9 52.9 53.2 55.3 55.3
54.6 53.7 53.9 53.0 51.2 52.4 50.2
Vietnam 32.7 42.7 51.1 47.6 45.7 52.2 51.8 49.9 51.7 51.3 51.6 53.6
54.7 53.1 44.1 45.1 40.2 40.2 52.1
ASEAN 30.7 35.5 43.7 46.5 49.0 48.3 48.6 50.0 50.8 51.4 49.7 50.8 51.9 51.8 49.0 44.6 44.5 50.0
Source: Bloomberg, Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research compilation

I.4 – Exports and imports
❑ In October, exports were estimated at US$27.3bn, up slightly (0.3% YoY and 1% MoM) from the negative growth of
Exports expected to the previous two months. Imports’ growth rate decelerated compared with the previous months, at an estimated
regain growth US$26.2bn, up 8.1% YoY in October. As a result, the October trade balance had an estimated surplus of US$1.1bn.
momentum when ❑ In 10M21, exports and imports still maintained double-digit growth, at an estimated US$267.93bn (+16.6% YoY) and
US$269.38bn (+28.2% YoY), respectively. The trade balance gradually returned to a surplus in September and
production and
October. The trade deficit narrowed, reaching US$1.45bn, in 10M21.
business activities ❑ The driving forces for export growth going forward: 1) businesses resume operations, factories reopen and
recover operating capacity gradually returns to normal; 2) external demand gradually improves, thanks to the global
deployment of COVID-19 vaccines; and 3) Vietnam's participation in the global supply chain deepens, taking
advantage of key trade agreements.
Exports, imports, and trade balance Growth rates of exports and imports
Trade balance (L) Exports ( R) (% YoY) Exports Imports

(US$mn) (US$mn)
Imports ( R)
60
6,000 35,000
50
5,000
30,000
4,000 40
25,000
3,000 30
2,000 20,000
20
1,000 15,000
10
0
10,000 0
-1,000
5,000 -10
-2,000
-3,000 0 -20
May 20
Aug 20
Dec 20
May 21
Sep 20
Nov 20
Aug 21
Sep 21
Apr 20
Apr 21
Feb 20
Feb 21
Jun 20
Oct 20
Jun 21
Oct 21
Mar 20
Mar 21
Jan 20
Jul 20
Jan 21
Jul 21
Feb 20
Feb 21
Dec 20
Aug 20
Sep 20
Nov 20
Aug 21
Sep 21
Apr 20
Jun 20
Oct 20
Apr 21
Jun 21
Oct 21
Mar 21
Jan 20
Mar 20
May 20
Jan 21
May 21
Jul 20
Jul 21
Source: GSO, Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research compilation Source: GSO, Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research compilation

I.4 – Exports and imports (cont’d.)
Growth of Vietnam’s monthly exports by product
Growth (% YoY)
Country Proportion (10M21)
Jan-21 Feb-21 Mar-21 Apr-21 May-21 Jun-21 Jul-21 Aug-21 Sep-21 Oct-21
US 28 72 3 48 83 52 27 12 3 -2 -19
China 16 70 22 19 9 23 15 15 -1 12 5
EU 12 51 -12 10 49 21 4 11 0 -12 -12
ASEAN 9 40 -24 12 73 49 44 20 7 7 20
South Korea 7 33 -16 14 29 13 7 7 -5 23 11
Japan 6 12 -22 2 19 19 22 14 4 -22 -19
Growth of Vietnam’s monthly exports by country
Growth (% YoY)
Products Proportion (10M21)
Jan-21 Feb-21 Mar-21 Apr-21 May-21 Jun-21 Jul-21 Aug-21 Sep-21 Oct-21
Electronic goods, computers, and their parts 15 46 23 27 27 14 5 -9 1 7 8
Phones and their parts 17 126 -24 -14 52 22 -10 10 4 9 -4
Machinery, instrument, accessory 11 119 43 78 83 47 25 28 16 8 14
Textiles and garments 10 8 -18 17 52 34 18 3 -12 -21 -5
Shoes and sandals 5 33 -11 23 43 41 38 3 -40 -46 -46
Wood and products 4 61 25 52 96 82 65 21 -30 -38 -40
Means of transportation and spare parts 3 31 2 26 86 86 73 54 -20 -37 -15
Iron, steel 4 134 37 96 137 230 119 142 152 152 127
Seafood 3 24 -21 17 22 19 19 8 -27 -25 -23
Textiles fibers 2 62 -7 47 121 117 92 69 55 33 5
Plastic products 1 61 1 43 41 53 52 42 30 17 11

I.5 – Public investment
Disbursement of public ❑ Amid easing of social distancing measures, progress in the implementation of public investment projects was
accelerated in October. Particularly, in October, investment capital from the State budget was estimated at
investment accelerated
VND41.7tr, up 18.6% MoM and down 17.4% YoY. In 10M21, investment capital from the State budget reached
compared with September VND318.6tr (-8.3% YoY), equaling 64.7% of the year plan.
❑ We believe that public investment will become the key engine of economic recovery in the last two months of
2021 and subsequent years, as it may take more time for other economic growth drivers that are negatively
impacted by the fourth wave of Covid to recover.
Investment capital from the State budget is expected to recover in 2022−2024 Investment capital from the State budget in 10M21
(VNDtr) 10M21 disbursement

Investment capital from the State budget (% YoY)
(VNDtr) Monthly investment capital from the State budget (% YoY)
Growth
YoY growth (accumulative)
45 30
700 30 40 25
25 35
600 20
20 30
500 15
15
25
400 10 10
20
300 5 5
15
0
200 0
10
-5
100 5 -5
-10
0 -15 0 -10
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E Jan 21 Feb 21 Mar 21 Apr 21 May 21 Jun 21 Jul 21 Aug 21 Sep 21 Oct 21
Source: The Ministry of Finance, Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research compilation Source: GSO, Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research compilation

I.6 – FDI
❑ In 10M21, disbursed FDI was estimated at US$15.2bn (-4.1% YoY), down from the same period last year due to the closure
Registered FDI of factories and labor shortages amid the Covid-19 pandemic. Meanwhile, registered FDI in 10M21 has kept its year-over-
year growth (estimated at US$20.1bn; +15.8% YoY). Of these, newly-registered FDI capital reached over US$13bn (+11.6%
maintained
YoY) with 1,375 projects (-34.5% YoY), and there were 776 projects registered to adjust investment capital (-14.4% YoY), the
double-digit additional-registered capital went up to US$7.1bn (+24.2% YoY).
growth ❑ With promotion of COVID-19 vaccinations and policies to support and guide businesses to adapt to the “new normal”,
production activities are expected to gradually recover. In addition, when Vietnam achieves herd immunity and travel
between countries gradually returns to normal, it will create favorable conditions for foreign investors to survey and carry
out investment procedures in Vietnam, that may partly increase attractiveness to foreign investors. Therefore, realized FDI
is expected to improve going forward. We believe that the wave of FDI into Vietnam will be further boosted once Vietnam
gradually returns to the "new normal”, with Vietnam still benefiting from the restructuring of the global supply chain.
❑ Risks: 1) Increasing competition in attracting foreign investment among countries; and 2) it may take time to attract
workers back to work after social distancing.
FDI attraction and disbursement (2012−10M21) Some major FDI projects in 10M21
Registered FDI (L)

(% YoY) Project Country Registered capital Products
(US$mn) FDI disbursement (L)
Registered FDI growth (R) Long An 1 and 2
Construction of a
30,000 FDI disbursement growth (R) 80 Thermal Power Singapore ~ US$3.1bn
thermal power plant
70 Plant project
25,000 60 Additionally-
LG Display Hai
50 Korea registered capital of OLED screen products
Phong project
20,000
40 US$2.15bn
30 O Mon 2 Thermal
15,000 Construction of a
20 Power Plant Japan ~ US$1.31bn
thermal power plant
10 project
10,000
0 Kraft paper, lined
Kraft Vina Paper
5,000 -10 Japan US$611.4mn paper, and packaging
Mill project
-20 paper
0 -30 Plant of Polytex Additionally- Petrochemical and
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Far Eastern Taiwan registered capital of textile vertical
YTD Vietnam Co., Ltd US$610mn integration factory
Source: Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research compilation, GSO, updated as of 10/20/2021 Source: MPI, Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research compilation

I.6 – FDI (cont’d.)
Registered FDI by sector in 10M21 Registered FDI by country in 10M21
0.4% 0.5% 0.3% 0.6% Manufacturing, processing
2.2% 0.4% Singapore South Korea Japan China
1.8%
1.9% Production, electricity, gas, steam and air
Hong Kong Taiwan Netherlands Others
conditioning supply
Real estate activities
6.0%
1.1%
Wholesale and retail trade; repair of 9.7%
motor vehicles and motorcycles
Transportation and storage 5.1%
29.7%
Professional, scientific and technical
activities 9.1%
27.0% Construction
59.1%
Information and communication
Accommodation and food service 11.6%

activities
Agriculture, forestry and fishery
18.0%
Others
15.8%
Registered FDI by locality in 10M21
Long An
Ho Chi Minh city
2.1% Hai Phong
11.6% Binh Duong
2.0% 18.0%
2.3% Can Tho
Quang Ninh
2.3% Ha Noi
Bac Ninh
2.5%
6.4% Dong Nai
3.2% Bac Giang
Vinh Phuc
3.6%
Tay Ninh
13.4% Hung Yen
3.8%
Phu Tho
Dak Lak
3.0% Binh Phuoc
6.2%
3.8% Thai Binh
5.6% 6.6%
Others
3.7%
Source: MPI, Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research compilation

I.7 – Domestic consumption
❑ In October, total retail sales of consumer goods and services gradually improved compared with September (+18.1%
Consumption MoM) and narrowed the decline compared with the previous two months (October: -19.5% YoY, September: -28.4% YoY,
improved August: -33.7% YoY), when provinces/cities begin to ease social distancing from the end-September. In 10M21, total
retail sales of consumer goods and services and consumption slipped by 8.6% YoY (versus -0.2% YoY in 10M20); if
compared with
excluding the price factor, it decreased by 10.3% YoY (versus -4.5% YoY in 10M20).
September ❑ The driving engines for the recovery of retail and consumer services: 1) increased spending in the last months of the
year; 2) when Vietnam is expected to reach the rate of herd immunity in 2022 and return to the "new normal",
consumer demand is expected to rebound; and 3) the tourism industry may gradually prosper in 2022, with a slow
recovery once Vietnam achieves herd immunity and tourism demand of international visitors returns.
❑ The biggest risks to retail and consumption are a resurgence of COVID-19 and slower-than-expected progress on
vaccinations.
Retail sales and consumption services growth by sector (% YoY) Plan to restore tourism and international routes
Expected execution time
Retail sales of consumer goods and services Plan
Retail sales of goods
4Q21 1Q22 2Q22 3Q22
(% YoY) The Ministry of Culture, Phase 1: Pilot Phase 2: Phase 3: Reopening
Accommodation & Catering Services
20 Travel Services Sports and Tourism scheme to Expanding the completely to the
Other Services proposes three-stage welcome scope of international tourist
10
plan to re-open international international market, proving that
0 international travel guests with the arrivals pandemic
package tour prevention and
-10 program control plans are
-20
ensured according
to regulations
-30
The Civil Aviation Phase 1: Phase 2: Piloting Phase 3: Phase 4:
-40 Authority of Vietnam Restarting regular flights Deployment of Operating regular
proposes a four-phase regular with only regular flights international
-50 plan to restore international passengers who carrying passengers flights on
international flights flights first by have evidences into Vietnam that demand
-60
resuming all- of full vaccination do not require post-
-70 inclusive flights against Covid-19 entry quarantine
or recovery from when applying the
Sep 19
Sep 20
Sep 21
Dec 19
Dec 20
Aug 19
Nov 19
Aug 20
Nov 20
Aug 21
Feb 20
Feb 21
Jun 19
Oct 19
Apr 20
Jun 20
Oct 20
Apr 21
Jun 21
Oct 21
May 19
Jul 19
Jan 20
Mar 20
May 20
Jul 20
Jan 21
Mar 21
May 21
Jul 21
Covid-19 "vaccine passport"

mechanism
Source: GSO, Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research compilation Source: Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research compilation

I.8 – Enterprise establishment/dissolution situation
• In October, the number of newly-established enterprises and the number of enterprises returning to operation
New business continued to decline over the same period; however, the business registration situation showed positive signs
registration has compared to the previous month. Specifically, in October, the country had 8,233 newly-established enterprises
(+111.2% MoM; -32.5% YoY) with registered capital of VND108.6tr (+73.9% MoM; -34.4% YoY), and the number of
positive signals
businesses returning to operation increased by 29.8% MoM and decreased by 14.7% YoY.
• We believe that as soon as the pandemic is contained successfully, businesses will gradually resume normal
production activities. Thus, the unemployment rate is expected to decline, helping solidify the recovery of domestic
demand. However, the key risk to watch is the possibility of labor shortages in the early stage of social distancing
easing, if movements of people between provinces are not well executed.
Enterprise establishment/dissolution situation Monthly register capital and the number of labor
(% YoY) Registered capital The number of labor

Newly-established enterprises
Re-operated enterprises 150
(# firms) Enterprises suspending operation for a definite time
Enterprises waiting for dissolution procedures
Enterprises completed dissolution procedures 100
120,000
-2.9%
100,000 -15.7% 50
80,000
0
60,000
+58.7% +16.0%
+8.2% +15.7%
40,000 -6.3% -50
-12.4%
20,000 +0.9%
+0.1%
-100
0 Jan 20 Apr 20 Jul 20 Oct 20 Jan 21 Apr 21 Jul 21 Oct 21
10M20 10M21
Source: GSO, Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research compilation Source: GSO, Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research compilation

I.9 – Exchange rate
• As of end-October, the VND/US$ exchange rate has decreased by 0.04% MoM and 1.5% YTD. The slowdown in export growth
VND appreciates and realized FDI inflows put pressure on the overall balance of payments, thereby exerting pressure on the exchange rate in
relative to US$ in recent months. We maintain our view that the VND will likely appreciate relative to the US dollar from 1.5%−2% in 2021,
amid the pressure of the current account likely turning negative and a net withdrawal of FII inflows.
10M21
• In 2022, the VND is expected to be more stable and move in a range of around 0.5% against the US dollar, in light of: 1) the
SBV's flexible mechanism for regulating foreign currency supply and demand; 2) an expected return to surplus for the trade
balance in 2022, once exports accelerate; 3) growth of FDI inflows into Vietnam, thanks to production shifts; 4) Vietnam’s
foreign exchange reserves reaching a high level and tending toward increasing; 5) the US Treasury’s mid-April removal of
Vietnam from its list of currency manipulators and end to the tariff threat on the end-July currency-dispute truce, which
should ease pressure on the VND/US$ exchange rate.
VND/US$ exchange rate VND appreciates relative to US$ in 10M21
(VND) CNY VND PHP

Official rate (SBV) Unofficial rate Commercial banks
24,200 (End 2020 = 0%) INR MYR IDR
KRW THB JPY
24,000 14
23,800 12
10
23,600
8
23,400
6
23,200
4
23,000 2
22,800 0
22,600 -2
-4
22,400
Jan 21 Feb 21 Mar 21 Apr 21 May 21 Jun 21 Jul 21 Aug 21 Sep 21 Oct 21
22,200
Oct 19 Jan 20 Apr 20 Jul 20 Oct 20 Jan 21 Apr 21 Jul 21
Source: Bloomberg, as of 10/30/2021

Source: FiinPro, SBV, updated 10/29/2021 Note: JPY = Japanese yen, PHP = Philippines peso, CNY = Chinese yuan, VND = Vietnamese dong,
INR = Indian rupee, KRW = Korean won, MYR = Malaysian ringgit, THB = Thailand baht, IDR =
Indonesian Rupiah

I.10 – Inflation
❑ Consumer Price Index (CPI) edged downward by 0.2% MoM and increased by 1.77% YoY in October. In 10M21, CPI increased by 1.81% YoY
Inflation — the lowest increase since 2016 — and core inflation climbed 0.84% YoY. CPI decreased compared with the previous month due to: 1) a
drop in food prices in the month, as demand for consumer goods decreased amid the easing of social distancing measures and
remained
guaranteed supply; 2) reduced demand for electricity and domestic water; and 3) a decline in housing rents to support citizens during the
muted Covid-19 pandemic. Meanwhile, the factors contributing to the increase in CPI include: 1) the rise of Transportation due to upward
adjustments of petrol prices; 2) increased tuition fees in some localities; 3) increasing prices of beverages and cigarettes on improving
consumer demand, amid the easing of social distancing and increased transport costs.
❑ Inflation in the two last months may increase more strongly than in 10M21, due to year-end spending demand and gradual easing of social
distancing measures; however, inflation is expected to continue to be well-controlled in 4Q21 and come in below the government’s
inflation target of 4% for 2021, thanks to: 1) the expected slow recovery of the Culture, Entertainment, and Tourism segment, due to the
impact of COVID-19; 2) policies to ensure supply-demand balance and market stability, which should help offset the inflation risk caused by
the recovery of basic commodity prices. In 2022, inflation is expected to remain controlled at below 4%. Key risks to watch: 1) the impact of
loose monetary policy; and 2) increasing prices of basic commodities.
Inflation CPI by industry (%)
(% YoY) Inflation Core inflation 10M21 avg.

7.0 Items YoY YTD MoM
(% YoY)
6.0 Overall CPI 1.77 1.67 -0.20 1.81
5.0 Food and Foodstuff 0.14 0.50 -1.28 0.83
4.0 Beverage and Tobacco 2.16 1.96 0.19 1.73
3.0 Garment, Footwear and Hats 0.88 0.59 0.13 0.85

Housing and Construction Materials 1.07 1.03 -0.26 1.86
2.0
Household Appliances and Equipment 0.78 0.75 0.06 0.58
1.0
Medicines and Healthcare 0.19 0.17 0.02 0.20
0.0
Transportation 16.52 14.27 2.51 9.04
-1.0 Post and Telecommunications -0.90 -0.73 -0.04 -0.76
-2.0 Education -2.16 -2.17 0.25 2.91
Apr 15
Apr 16
Apr 17
Apr 18
Apr 19
Apr 20
Apr 21
Oct 15
Oct 16
Oct 17
Oct 18
Oct 19
Oct 20
Oct 21
Jan 15
Jul 15
Jan 16
Jul 16
Jan 17
Jul 17
Jan 18
Jul 18
Jan 19
Jul 19
Jan 20
Jul 20
Jan 21
Jul 21
Culture, Entertainment and Tourism -0.49 -0.33 0.04 -1.04

Other Services 1.26 1.03 0.12 1.52
Source: GSO. Note: Core inflation is calculated by the method of directly excluding 16
groups of food, fresh food, energy and prices managed by the State.

II.4 – Key macroeconomic indicators
Indicator 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020E 2021F 2022F
Real GDP growth (%, YoY) 6.0 6.7 6.2 6.8 7.1 7.0 2.9 2.3 5.7
Export growth (%, YoY) 13.8 8.1 9.0 21.1 13.2 8.4 6.5 20.0 20.0
Import growth (%, YoY) 12 12.1 5.6 20.8 11.1 6.8 3.6 30.0 21.0
Trade balance (US$ bn) 2.0 -3.2 2.6 2.7 6.8 11.1 19.1 -2.3 4.0
FDI disbursement (US$ bn) 12.4 14.5 15.8 17.5 19.1 20.4 20.0 20 22
Retail growth, excluding inflation (%, YoY) 6.2 8.5 8.3 9.3 9.4 9.2 -1.2 -2.0 7.0
Average CPI (%) 4.1 0.6 2.7 3.5 3.5 2.8 3.2 3.0 3.8
Foreign exchange reserve (US$bn) 34.5 30.5 36.7 49.2 55.3 78.5 94.8 110 130
Credit growth (%, YoY) 14.2 17.3 18.2 18.3 10.7 13.6 12.2 13 13
Exchange rate VND/US$ 21,388 22,485 22,761 22,698 23,175 23,314 23,267 22,802 22,916
Change in VND/US$ (%) 1.4 5.1 1.2 -0.3 2.1 0.5 -0.2 -2.0 0.5
Public debt (%/GDP)* 43.6 46.1 47.6 46.3 43.6 43.4 46.6 47.1 47.6
Source: GSO, Vietnam Customs, MPI, Bloomberg, WB, Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research
Note (*): GDP is revised to adhere to international practices. After recalculation, the revised GDP increased by 25.4% on average over the period 2010-2017.

II. Vietnam stock market review
• In October, the VN-Index has moved in line with our expectation, which calls for a best-case
target of 1,440 pts. Economic recovery expectation following the new normalcy has powered the
market, with the VN-Index conquering its new highs. Most industries enjoyed the rally; notably,
Real Estate, Utilities, Materials, Banks, and Capital Goods led the VN-Index’s resurgence.
Remarkably, Vietnam’s October returns (+7.6% MoM) were superior to those of many markets.
• Market liquidity increased markedly last week, reflecting positive market sentiment when the
VN-Index established the new records. According to our liquidity tracker, Real Estate, Capital
Goods, Materials, Utilities, Energy, Insurance, Transportation, and Consumer Durables & Apparel
were the top positives, despite differing degrees of increase in trading levels. Meanwhile, the
liquidity of Banks improved recently, although trading levels remained low.
• In October, foreign investors were net sellers of US$253mn. Of note, DCVFMVN30 ETF posted a
net inflow of US$24.8mn, while Fubon FTSE Vietnam ETF withdrew about US$27.5mn. In Asia,
offshore investors pivoted to net buying in Indonesia, Malaysia, and Thailand in October, except
for South Korea, Taiwan, and India. That said, offshore investors remained net sellers across the
region year to date, apart from India and Indonesia.
• Contrary to foreign investors’ net-selling strategy, domestic individuals were net buyers
throughout the first 10 months. In particular, retail investors bought a net amount of VND2.3tr
in October and VND69tr YTD.
• Remarkably, after several months of net selling, domestic institutions pivoted to net buying in
October, with a net amount of VND3tr. In sum, they sold a net amount of VND22tr YTD.

II.1 – Market performance review
• October marked a return to new normalcy, with easing social distancing and companies rehabilitating their
Speeding up in October, businesses amid supportive fiscal stimulus and monetary policies. Furthermore, with the number of daily new
the VN-Index set new COVID-19 cases decreasing significantly, it is increasingly beginning to look like September marked the peak of
the current surge. As a result, amid improving market sentiment, the VN-Index reached its all-time high of
highs 1,447.54 pts, and closed the month at 1,444.27 pts (+7.6% MoM). Remarkably, Vietnam’s October returns were
superior to those of many markets. The US (S&P 500: +6.7%), Indonesia (JCI: +4.8%), Singapore (STI: +3.6%), and
Hong Kong (HIS: +3.3%) also outperformed in October.
• Thus far, the VN-Index boasted a stellar performance this year, returning 30.8% YTD, following by India
(SENSEX: +24.2% YTD). Meanwhile, the US market (S&P 500: +22.4%) and MSCI DM benchmark (+18.2%) have
also enjoyed bullish runs this year.
Global performance monitor: Monthly change (% MoM)
Vietnam US MSCI DM MSCI EM MSCI FM Korea Japan China Hong Kong Taiwan India Thailand Malaysia Indonesia Philippines Singapore
Index VNINDEX SPX MXWO MXEF MXFM KOSPI NKY SHCOMP HIS TWSE SENSEX SET FBMKLCI JCI PCOMP STI
01-2021 -4.3% -1.1% -1.1% 3.0% 0.3% 3.6% 0.8% 0.3% 3.9% 2.8% -3.1% 1.2% -3.7% -2.0% -7.4% 2.1%
02-2021 10.6% 2.6% 2.5% 0.7% 0.1% 1.2% 4.7% 0.7% 2.5% 5.4% 6.1% 2.0% 0.7% 6.5% 2.8% 1.6%
03-2021 2.0% 4.2% 3.1% -1.7% -0.1% 1.6% 0.7% -1.9% -2.1% 3.0% 0.8% 6.0% -0.3% -4.1% -5.2% 7.3%
04-2021 4.0% 5.2% 4.5% 2.4% 6.3% 2.8% -1.3% 0.1% 1.2% 6.9% -1.5% -0.3% 1.8% 0.2% -1.1% 1.7%
05-2021 7.2% 0.5% 1.3% 2.1% 3.5% 1.8% 0.2% 4.9% 1.5% -2.8% 6.5% 0.7% -1.1% -0.8% 4.0% -1.7%
06-2021 6.1% 2.2% 1.4% -0.1% 2.5% 2.9% -0.2% -0.7% -1.1% 4.0% 1.0% -0.4% -3.2% 0.6% 4.1% -1.1%
07-2021 -7.0% 2.3% 1.7% -7.0% -0.7% -2.9% -5.2% -5.4% -9.9% -2.9% 0.2% -4.1% -2.5% 1.4% -9.2% 1.2%
08-2021 1.6% 2.9% 2.3% 2.4% 2.3% -0.1% 3.0% 4.3% -0.3% 1.4% 9.4% 7.7% 7.1% 1.3% 9.3% -3.5%
09-2021 0.8% -4.8% -4.3% -4.2% 0.9% -4.1% 4.9% 0.7% -5.0% -3.2% 2.7% -2.0% -4.0% 2.2% 1.4% 1.0%
10-2021 7.6% 6.7% 5.7% 1.8% 4.2% -3.2% -1.9% -0.6% 3.3% 0.3% 0.3% 1.1% 1.6% 4.8% 1.5% 3.6%
2021 YTD 30.8% 22.4% 18.2% -1.2% 20.9% 3.4% 5.3% 2.1% -6.8% 15.3% 24.2% 12.0% -4.0% 10.2% -1.2% 12.5%
Source: Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research, Bloomberg

II.2 – VN-Index and key driving events
(Pts) Social
distancing
1,500 The social distancing period
Resolution No. ease/
The Government promulgates Decree
68/NQ-CP is issued, suspending
52/2021/ND-CP on extension of time limit
with a support
for payment of value-added tax, corporate
package of
income tax, personal income tax, and land 3
VND26,000bn
1,400 rental in 2021. 1
Second social
security package 2
The State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) issued
worth VND27,000bn
Circular 03/2021/TTNHNN on April 2, is proposed
2021, amending Cir. 01/2020/TT-NHNN Package of tax
1,300 to extend debt moratorium for loans Vietnam
exemptions,
hit by COVID-19 and allow banks to officially
reductions for
apply 3-year provisioning roadmap for launches its
businesses and
largest-ever
these loans. individual
vaccination
business
1,200 Fourth campaign
households
Record number of new COVID-19 worth VND21tr
accounts opened; resurgence
The MoF
daily turnover has The MoF
proposes an Resolution No.
continuously recorded proposes
additional 105/NQ-CP on
1,100 new peaks since May 2020 the next
Covid-19 supporting
support
support businesses,
package of
package of cooperatives,
more than
about and business
VND20tr
VND24tr households
1,000 Third COVID-19
wave negatively
affected by
RCEP is COVID-19
officially
signed
900 Key events in October
SBV cuts
refinancing 1) Resolution No. 128/NQ-CP of the Government
rate to 4% promulgating the regulation "Safely and flexibly
adapting, effectively controlling the COVID-19
Second pandemic"
800 2) The Government issued Official Letter 7776/CD-VPCP
COVID-19
EVFTA officially on accelerating the disbursement of public investment
wave
comes into capital in 2021
effect 3) The Government submits the Economic Restructuring
Plan for the 2021−2025 period to the National Assembly.
700 The National Assembly will vote on a resolution on the
Economic Restructuring Plan for the 2021−2025 period
on November 12.
600
Jun 20 Jul 20 Aug 20 Sep 20 Oct 20 Nov 20 Dec 20 Jan 21 Feb 21 Mar 21 Apr 21 May 21 Jun 21 Jul 21 Aug 21 Sep 21 Oct 21

II.3 – Top market movers
Real Estate led the VN- • Most industries enjoyed the rally; notably, Real Estate led the VN-Index’s resurgence, explaining for a third of the VN-
Index’s gain. On top of that, Utilities, Materials, Banks, and Capital Goods also provided considerable boost to the market.
Index’s resurgence
• Also, these five industries, namely Banks, Real Estate, Materials, Capital Goods, and Utilities were the top market leaders
year to date, with the index contributions of 29%, 22%, 19%, 7%, and 6%, respectively.
Real Estate, Utilities, and Materials led the market in October (unit: Index points)
GICS Industry group 10-2020 11-2020 12-2020 01-2021 02-2021 03-2021 04-2021 05-2021 06-2021 07-2021 08-2021 09-2021 10-2021 2021 YTD
Real Estate 12.56 8.55 17.88 8.19 19.69 6.50 29.33 -8.26 29.72 -33.01 1.15 -11.38 33.83 75.77
Utilities -1.68 7.94 4.63 -7.08 7.59 0.87 -4.11 -1.37 6.35 -3.17 2.40 4.17 15.90 21.56
Materials 5.24 12.29 18.91 -8.82 13.00 2.44 8.07 18.15 7.60 -8.19 14.71 4.18 14.07 65.20
Banks -2.22 27.46 30.86 -20.19 42.84 11.42 22.23 73.60 19.84 -49.73 -17.12 0.60 13.43 96.91
Capital Goods -1.32 3.49 4.32 1.22 3.16 0.66 0.25 0.52 0.76 -2.05 6.26 -0.04 11.55 22.30
Food, Beverage & Tobacco 7.48 3.18 6.15 -12.42 9.00 -3.46 -4.54 -0.04 5.00 -0.07 1.34 4.78 5.69 5.26
Diversified Financials 0.41 1.39 5.44 -1.56 1.87 0.55 -0.10 4.55 4.82 -1.05 5.12 -0.67 2.17 15.69
Transportation -1.22 4.16 3.00 -1.46 4.52 0.15 -2.82 -3.18 3.21 -0.94 3.39 2.92 1.90 7.68
Energy -0.55 0.98 1.76 -1.50 3.77 -1.08 -2.11 1.85 0.40 -1.87 0.09 1.38 1.63 2.57
Insurance 0.32 1.05 2.33 -2.30 0.52 0.14 -0.43 -0.43 1.00 -1.29 1.43 0.46 1.59 0.69
Consumer Durables & Apparel 0.73 0.88 0.63 0.90 0.55 1.25 0.55 -0.16 0.54 -0.52 -0.15 0.85 1.22 5.03
Software & Services 0.26 0.83 0.95 0.76 2.88 0.41 0.61 3.65 0.75 1.61 -0.06 0.41 1.06 12.06
Retailing 0.02 1.49 0.56 1.86 0.34 -0.62 1.51 -0.31 1.66 1.73 0.43 3.42 1.01 11.03
Pharmaceuticals -0.15 0.32 0.35 -0.15 0.20 0.18 -0.09 0.09 0.35 -0.33 1.38 -0.86 0.10 0.87
Telecommunication Services 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.20 -0.02 -0.01 0.00 0.02 0.07 -0.04 0.06 0.18 0.08 0.53
Automobiles & Components -0.07 0.09 0.17 0.13 0.10 0.13 -0.09 0.02 0.11 -0.05 0.21 -0.02 0.07 0.60
Commercial & Professional Services -0.01 0.12 0.07 -0.05 0.03 0.03 -0.06 0.00 0.05 0.01 0.15 -0.01 0.04 0.18
Media & Entertainment -0.02 -0.01 0.02 -0.03 -0.02 -0.01 -0.10 -0.09 -0.01 -0.05 -0.01 0.00 0.03 -0.28
Consumer Services -0.09 0.07 0.13 0.07 0.50 -0.15 -0.13 -0.27 0.15 -0.12 0.16 0.05 0.02 0.29
Household & Personal Products -0.11 0.25 0.16 -0.09 0.66 0.14 -0.03 0.00 -0.01 0.02 -0.02 0.00 -0.01 0.66
Health Care -0.03 0.01 0.04 -0.05 0.01 0.01 -0.01 0.00 0.00 -0.01 0.26 -0.08 -0.01 0.11
Technology Hardware & Equipment -0.01 0.27 0.10 -0.09 0.29 0.27 -0.07 0.11 0.10 0.23 0.29 0.76 -0.12 1.77
VN-INDEX 20.26 77.61 100.79 -47.26 111.86 22.97 47.95 88.66 80.50 -98.50 21.42 10.59 102.21 340.40

II.3 – Top market movers (cont’d.)
BCM, VHM, NVL, PDR, • After correction in September, many realty stocks bounced back in October, notably NLG (+38.3%), KDH (+22.6%),
BCM (+18.8%), PDR (+17.4%), VHM (+9.2%), VIC (+8.9%), VRE (+7.2%), and NVL (+7.2%).
HPG, and TCB are
• Capital Goods had a good month, with DIG (+64.2%) posting a stellar performance.
highlighted among
• Utilities (GAS: +28.4%), Materials (HPG: +7.9%; GVR: +10.9%; DPM: +33.2%), and Insurance (BVH: +10.8%) chalked up
stellar performers in a third straight monthly gain.
October • Many banks posted positive monthly returns, namely BID (+5.2%), TCB (+4%), VPB (+3.9%), CTG (+3.6%), and SSB
(+9.6%), outstripping the underperformance of EIB (-4.7%), LPB (-3.9%), and HDB (-0.6%). That said, the market
continued to price in the pandemic-driven bad debt concerns that cloud the outlook for the banking industry.
Top 20 leading contributors Top 20 lagging contributors
Price change Index impact Price change Index impact

GICS Industry group Ticker GICS Industry group Ticker
(% MoM) (points) (% MoM) (points)
Utilities GAS 28.4 13.9 Banks EIB -4.7 -0.4
Real Estate VHM 9.2 8.3 Banks LPB -3.9 -0.3
Real Estate VIC 8.9 7.9 Capital Goods TGG -54.5 -0.2
Materials HPG 7.9 5.0 Diversified Financials HCM -3.7 -0.2
Materials GVR 10.9 4.1 Utilities PGD -14.7 -0.2
Real Estate NVL 7.2 2.8 Technology Hardware & Equipment DGW -4.4 -0.1
Capital Goods DIG 64.2 2.6 Transportation HVN -0.8 -0.1
Food, Beverage & Tobacco MSN 5.8 2.6 Materials HRC -17.0 -0.1
Real Estate BCM 18.8 2.3 Banks HDB -0.6 -0.1
Banks BID 5.2 2.2 Pharmaceuticals PME -4.2 -0.1
Banks TCB 4.0 1.9 Food, Beverage & Tobacco NAF -13.5 -0.1
Real Estate PDR 17.4 1.8 Diversified Financials SSI -0.4 0.0
Banks VPB 3.9 1.7 Transportation SCS -1.8 0.0
Real Estate KDH 22.6 1.6 Health Care VMD -16.6 0.0
Real Estate NLG 38.3 1.5 Diversified Financials APG -7.2 0.0
Banks CTG 3.6 1.4 Materials KPF -10.4 0.0
Banks SSB 9.6 1.3 Food, Beverage & Tobacco KDC -0.7 0.0
Materials DPM 33.2 1.3 Consumer Services AST -3.5 0.0
Real Estate VRE 7.2 1.3 Pharmaceuticals DMC -4.2 0.0
Insurance BVH 10.8 1.2 Capital Goods RAL -3.4 0.0
Source: Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research, Bloomberg Source: Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research, Bloomberg

II.4 – Market liquidity heatmap
Market liquidity increased • The daily average trading value increased by 6% MoM to around VND20.6tr.
markedly last week, • According to our liquidity tracker, Real Estate, Capital Goods, Materials, Utilities, Energy, Insurance,
Transportation, and Consumer Durables & Apparel were the top positives, despite differing degrees of increase
although Banks were still in trading levels. Meanwhile, the rankings of Diversified Financials, Retailing, and Software & Services turned to
trading at negative level neutral. Of note, the liquidity of Banks improved recently, although the trading level remained low.
Market liquidity heatmap
Market liquidity heat map by week Trading value

GICS Industry group
10-09-21 17-09-21 24-09-21 01-10-21 08-10-21 15-10-21 22-10-21 29-10-21 (% MoM)
Insurance 100% 26.5%
Capital Goods 100% 4.8%
Transportation 100% 9.1%
Consumer Durables & Apparel 100% 14.9%
Materials 100% 7.3%
Health Care 98% -5.7%
Real Estate 98% 12.6%
Utilities 98% 57.8%
Technology Hardware & Equipment 95% 1.5%
Energy 85% 18.0%
F&B 83% -10.7%
Diversified Financials 73% -14.3%
Retailing 71% 0.2%
Software & Services 61% 28.6%
Pharmaceuticals 54% -36.9%
Automobiles & Components 41% -10.5%
Banks 29% 7.1%
VN-INDEX 90% 6.4%

Source: Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research

II.5 – Foreign investment review
• In October, foreign investors were net sellers of US$253mn (or VND5.25tr). Of note, DCVFMVN30 ETF posted a net inflow
Foreign investors of US$24.8mn, while Fubon FTSE Vietnam ETF withdrew about US$27.5mn. In sum, about US$1.6mn was injected from
ETFs in October, after recorded outflows in the previous two months (September: US$108.5mn; August: -US$96.9mn). By
continued their stock, foreign investors sold heavily HPG (VND2.2tr), NVL (VND1.3tr), and PAN (VND940bn) in stock, while TPB (VND1.3tr),
selling strategy FMC (VND509bn), and GAS (VND357bn) were the top draws.
• So far, foreign investors have maintained a net-selling strategy this year, with a net amount of US$2.2bn YTD, or 2.5
times higher than the net-selling amount in 2020. As for ETFs, more than US$133.3mn was injected (vs. 2020:
+US$220mn).
• In Asia, offshore investors pivoted to net buying in Indonesia, Malaysia, and Thailand in October, except for South Korea,
Taiwan, and India. That said, offshore investors remained net sellers across the region year to date, apart from India
(+US$6.3bn) and Indonesia (+US$2.8bn).
Foreign net buying/selling by month (unit: US$mn) Capital flows of foreign investors in Asian markets
Market
Oct 2021 3Q21 2021 YTD 2020
Month YTD (US$mn)
600 Vietnam -253 -416 -2,198 -876
200 S. Korea -3,232 -8,427 -28,696 -20,082
-200
India -2,271 446 6,269 23,373
-600
Taiwan -2,289 -3,576 -18,970 -15,997
-1000
Indonesia 926 684 2,802 -3,220
-1400
Malaysia 378 112 -538 -5,782

-1800
-2200 Philippines 8 -198 -1,734 -2,513
1 3 5 7 9 11 2 4 6 8 10 12 1 3 5 7 9
Thailand 474 -8 -2,004 -8,287
2019 2020 2021

II.6 – Net purchases by investor type
Domestic retail and • Contrary to foreign investors’ net-selling strategy, domestic individuals were net buyers throughout the first 10 months.
In particular, retail investors bought a net amount of VND2.3tr in October and VND69tr YTD.
institutions were • Since March 2021, domestic individuals opened at least 100,000 new accounts per month, giving a fresh impetus to
net-buyers in market liquidity improvement and price momentum. In the era of low interest rates, we expect savings to continue to
be diverted into the stock market.
October
• Remarkably, after several months of net selling, domestic institutions pivoted to net buying in October, with a net
amount of VND3tr. In sum, they sold a net amount of VND22tr YTD.
VNINDEX net purchases by investor type
Domestic retail Domestic institutions Foreign investors
New accounts of domestic retail (RHS) Total new accounts (RHS)

(VNDbn) (Number of accounts)
15,000 150,000
140,000
10,000
130,000
120,000
5,000
110,000
0 100,000
90,000
-5,000
80,000
70,000
-10,000
60,000
-15,000 50,000
Jan 21 Feb 21 Mar 21 Apr 21 May 21 Jun 21 Jul 21 Aug 21 Sep 21 Oct 21
Source: Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research, FiinPro, Vietnam Securities Depository (VSD)

III. Vietnam stock market prospects
• Most firms have released their quarterly financial statements, with better-than-expected results,
despite the strict social distancing during 3Q21. Accordingly, we estimate that the market EPS
grew by more than 25% YoY in 3Q21. Also, we revise our projection for full-year EPS growth
upward to 40% YoY (from 33%). Thus, we project the VN-Index will fluctuate within the range of
1,380–1,490 pts in November, with the base-case target of 1,427 pts. The positive momentum
building was accompanied by buoyant liquidity, which bodes well for a further increase in the
VN-Index in November.
• We see the economy recovering as the “new normal” takes root, with companies rehabilitating
their businesses from October amid supportive fiscal stimulus and monetary policies. Against
this backdrop, the market consensus for 2022 EPS growth is about 24%, equivalent to the 2022
forward P/E of 13.7x. Thus, we believe the 2022 valuation is still attractive, with investment
opportunities in the “new normal” times.
• Market drivers: 1) COVID-19 is increasingly under control; 2) headroom for fiscal policy remains
comfortable; 3) credit growth is expected to accelerate in 4Q21; 4) investment and consumption
is being encouraged with low financing costs; 5) savings continue to be diverted into the stock
market, as deposit rates remains low; 6) SOE privatization will be boosted in 2022; and 7)
emerging-market classification visibility in the foreseeable future.
• Risks to watch: 1) heightening uncertainties around the reopening; 2) pandemic-led bad debt
concerns; 3) accelerating FII outflows if the Fed raises its policy rate; and 4) the impact of new
Chinese policies on the global commodity markets and supply chains.

III.1 – Historical valuations
• As of end-October, the VN-Index traded at 17.1x on a trailing P/E basis, or nearly one standard deviation (SD)
The current P/E level of above the 10-year average. Compared with the historical high of 22x (set in April 2018, VN-Index at 1,204 pts), the
VN-Index is nearly one current P/E level was lowered by 22%.
standard deviation • Since the pandemic-induced trough in late-March 2020, the VN-Index mostly traded in the range of 14.8-17.3x of
P/E, with the highest level of 19.2x (set in early-July 2021, VN-Index at 1,420 pts). In other words, the current P/E
above the 10-year level of VN-Index is discounted by 11% compared with the recent high. As for the large-cap group, the VN30
Index’s P/E fluctuated from 11.5x to 15x in the same period, with the highest level of 17.1x (when the VN30 Index
average
was at 1,557 pts). Currently, the VN30 Index trades at 15x P/E, down by 12% compared with its high. In terms of
the mid-cap group, the VN70 Index’s P/E was in the range of 11–16.5x, with the highest level of 20.8x. With the
current P/E of 14,3x, the valuation of the VN70 Index was discounted by 32% compared with the highest P/E level.
P/E of VN-Index: 10-year band chart P/E stats since March 2020
(x) P/E -2SD -1SD

interquartile range Current
25
10-year average +1SD +2SD
23
23
21
21
19.8
19
19
17 17.3 17
15 15
14.7
13
13
12.1
11
11
9
9.6
9
7
7
5
Oct 11 Oct 13 Oct 15 Oct 17 Oct 19 Oct 21
VN-Index VN30 Index VN70 Index VNFinLead Index

III.2 – Relative valuations
• After a very bullish run, the VN-Index is trading at a 17.1x P/E for the relatively high ROE of 16.3%, still offering an
EPS growth prospects attractive valuation compared with many regional peers, like India, Thailand, or the Philippines. That said, the current
and high ROE make the valuation of Vietnam market might be less attractive compared with other frontier markets (referring to the MSCI FM
benchmark).
market relatively
• Most firms have released their quarterly financial statements, with better-than-expected results, despite the strict
attractive in long run social distancing during 3Q21. According to market consensus, EPS growth in 2021 is expected to be around 34% YoY,
equivalent to a 2021 forward P/E of 16.9x, implying a less attractive valuation in the near term. However, we see the
economy recovering as the “new normal” takes root, with companies rehabilitating their businesses from October,
amid supportive fiscal stimulus and monetary policies. Against this backdrop, the market consensus for 2022 EPS
growth is about 24%, equivalent to the 2022 forward P/E of 13.7x. Thus, we believe the 2022 valuation is still attractive,
with investment opportunities in the “new normal” times.
Vietnam’s market has relatively high ROE, with reasonable P/E Vietnam’s market is expected to enjoy high EPS growth, fair 2021 forward P/E
22 Korea
MSCI FM
66
20
US 56
Vietnam
18
Taiwan
Taiwan 46
16
2019-2021 EPS CAGR (%)

MSCI EM MSCI DM 36
ROE (%)
Vietnam
14
India
Japan 26 MSCI EM Japan
12 MSCI DM India
China US
16 China
10 Hong Kong Malaysia
Indonesia
Malaysia Thailand
6
8 MSCI FM
Korea Philippines
-4 Hong Kong Thailand
6
Singapore Philippines
-14 Singapore
4
10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26
10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30
P/E (x) 2021 forward P/E (x)

III.3 – Market valuation based on EPS growth expectation
• Most firms have released their quarterly financial statements, with better-than-expected results, despite the strict
social distancing during 3Q21. As of October 30, 266 out of 402 HOSE-listed firms have posted 3Q earnings results,
VN-Index expected to
representing 91.4% of total market capitalization. Accordingly, we estimate that the market EPS grew by more than
move in range of 25% YoY in 3Q21. By industry, Materials (notably Steel), Diversified Financials (mostly IB and Brokerage), Utilities,
1,380–1,490 pts in Technology Hardware & Equipment, and Software & Services posted solid growth in 3Q21, with net profit growth
above 20% YoY. In addition, Banks, Capital Goods, Pharmaceuticals, Energy, Insurance, and Real Estate still
November, with a maintained their growth momentum in 3Q. Remarkably, Transportation (mainly Marine Ports & Logistics) continued
base case of 1,427 pts to recover, with estimated net profit growth of 25%; however, we note that Airlines – accounting for a large
proportion in the Transportation – have yet to release their 3Q earnings, but they could have a significant impact on
the growth results of the industry as a whole. We also highlight that Retailing, Automobiles & Components (mainly
Tires), Consumer Durables & Apparel, and F&B were negatively impacted by the fourth wave of COVID-19.
• With better-than-expected 3Q21 earnings, we revise our projection for full-year EPS growth upward to 40% YoY (from
33%), with modest risks to the upside. Thus, we project the VN-Index will fluctuate within the range of 1,380–1,490 pts
in November, with the base-case target of 1,427 pts. The positive momentum building was accompanied by buoyant
liquidity, which bodes well for a further increase in the VN-Index in November.
Vietnam EPS growth: Our projection vs. market consensus VN-Index forecast for 4Q21: Base case of 1,427 pts
(% YoY) 2,000 VNINDEX P/E 16x
40% Consensus Our projection 1,800
37% 1,600
1,400
34%
1,200
31% 1,000
800
28%
600
25%
400
22% 200
0
19%
Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec
Feb 21 Mar 21 Apr 21 May 21 Jun 21 Jul 21 Aug 21 Sep 21 Oct 21 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22

III.3 – Market valuation based on EPS growth expectation
(cont’d.)
3Q21 earnings review and 2021 forecast revision for HOSE-listed firms: EPS growth (% YoY) by industry
Total market cap % of
GICS industry group 1Q20 2Q20 3Q20 4Q20 1Q21 2Q21 3Q21 2019 2020 2021F
(VNDbn) market cap
Materials 613,358 95.03% 23% 33% 67% 115% 184% 190% 125% -17% 31% 40%
Diversified Financials 146,057 96.09% -104% 139% 54% 89% 6317% 75% 114% -31% 44% 138%
Utilities 336,600 95.39% -29% -34% -41% -7% -4% 22% 47% -3% -19% 27%
STRONG MOMENTUM
Technology Hardware & Equipment 10,033 100.00% 80% 45% 44% 69% 137% 140% 43% 45% 57% 61%
Software & Services 95,631 93.41% 20% 12% -3% 27% 21% 13% 22% 24% 7% 22%
Banks 1,672,177 100.00% 7% 23% 7% 27% 77% 37% 18% 27% 14% 42%
Capital Goods 251,121 73.32% -24% -12% -23% 11% 93% 45% 15% -13% -3% 23%
Pharmaceuticals 37,780 86.06% 12% 7% 10% 4% 9% 7% 15% 3% 2% 12%
Energy 96,772 23.16% 71% -15% -7% 93% -45% 5% 13% -29% 0% 36%
Insurance 63,555 100.00% -48% 69% 26% 180% 137% 2% 10% 16% 18% 28%
Real Estate 1,291,365 95.33% 47% -39% 32% -3% 25% 118% 8% 1% -17% 62%
IMPROVING
Transportation 204,779 25.80% 5% -38% -51% -62% 21% 104% 25% -10% -31% 32%
Consumer Services 9,253 66.03% -61% -147% -193% -448% -283% -50% 5% -10% -98% 612%
MOMENTUM
Retailing 105,086 96.12% 3% -29% 7% 19% 23% 42% -22% -7% -13% 32%
SLOW
Automobiles & Components 9,401 87.78% 84% -24% 10% 6% 19% 55% -71% 44% 25% -1%
Consumer Durables & Apparel 51,143 79.45% -10% -65% -4% 21% 32% 275% -127% -10% -9% 28%
F&B 588,490 93.44% -26% -5% 0% 2% 11% 1% -17% 5% -14% -8%

SLUGGISH
Telecommunication Services 3,237 22.27% 83% 120% 29% -83% 103% -56% -52% -91% 14% 76%
Household & Personal Products 1,798 100.00% 66% 6% 0% 49% -31% -17% -58% 21% 29% -24%
Commercial & Professional Services 5,327 78.31% -96% -69% 64% -1% 5576% 76% -109% -17% -26% -17%
VN-INDEX 5,597,889 91.37% -25% -8% -8% 22% 92% 65% 25% 9% -1% 40%
Source: Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research, data as of October 30,2021.
We compiled net profit attributable to controlling interests from 266 firms out of total 402 HOSE-listed firms. The entire dataset represents 91.4% of total market capitalization.

III.4 – Market drivers
• Fiscal policies: Based on the revised GDP figure, the public debt-to-GDP ratio was estimated at about 46.6% as of end-
2020, well below the IMF’s recommended threshold of 55%. According to IMF’s projection, public debt could increase to
Both fiscal and 47.1% of GDP as of end-2021, as state budget expenditures are likely to increase to aid the COVID-19 fight and support
monetary polices pandemic-affected households and firms. That said, the projected public debt level is still lower than the ceiling of 60%
set by the National Assembly. Thus, headroom for fiscal policy remains comfortable.
remain very
• Monetary policies:
supportive
o Credit growth suffered a setback during the lockdown, with softer growth in July and August. As of end-August,
credit growth was 7.45% YTD. Since October, as companies have rehabilitated their businesses, their funding
needs have simultaneously increased. Thus, credit growth is expected to accelerate in 4Q21, with the whole-year
projection of 13% YoY.
o Interest rate: With the inflation target of 4%, headroom for another cut is limited. That said, the interest rates are
expected to stand at the current levels; therefore, investment and consumption are encouraged with low
financing costs. Indeed, the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) announced that banks have lowered lending rates by
1.55%p to support pandemic-hit customers.
o Other: The SBV enacted Circular 14/2021/TT-NHNN to delay the timeline on COVID-19- affected debt moratoriums;
accordingly, affected borrowers have enough time to recover repayment capacity (indirectly reducing bad debts).
Headroom for fiscal policy remains comfortable Credit growth is expected to accelerate for financing the recovery
(% ) Public debt-to-GDP ratio IMF's recommended threshold (YTD)

2019 2020 2021F
60 14% 2019 13.65%
2021F 13%
12% 2020 12.17%
55
10%
50 8%
47.6 47.1
46.1 46.3 46.6
6% 7.45%
45 43.6 43.6 43.4
41.4
4%
40 38.3
2%
35.8
35 0%
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021F 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 (Month
)
Source: Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research, IMF Source: Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research, State bank of Vietnam (SBV)

III.4 – Market drivers (cont’d.)
Other market • State-owned enterprises privatization will be boosted in 2022: As planned, the State will reduce its ownership at six
firms (including SAB, FPT, BMI, NTP, VNR, and another non-listed firm), with a total value of about VND40tr.
catalysts • Emerging-market classification visibility in the foreseeable future, along with initiatives for improving stock market
transparency, will attract offshore investors, funds, and ETFs. Indeed, the Vietnam market is relatively attractive for
long-term investors, in terms of economic growth and corporate earnings prospects (both of which are forecast to
outperform those of other markets).
• Risks to watch: 1) heightening uncertainties around reopening; 2) pandemic-led bad debt concerns; 3) accelerating FII
outflows if the Fed raises its policy rate; and 4) the impact of new Chinese policies on the global commodity markets
and supply chains.
Earnings yield expected to move downward in era of low interest rates
Refinancing rate Discount Rate Earnings yield 10-year bond yield

10%
Compared with current bond
yields, the stock market’s
9% earnings yield is relatively
high. In other words, earnings
8% yields should be lowered, or
stock prices would increase.
7%
6%
5%
4%
3%
2%
1%
0%
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

III.5 – Upcoming market events
World events Vietnam's events
Date Country Event Date Event
Oct/Nov ASEAN Business and Investment Members’ information updates of VNDIAMOND and VNFIN
ASEAN 11/01/2021
2021 Summit LEAD take effect
11/4/2021 US Fed Interest Rate Decision 11/01/2021 VNFINSELECT’s member update takes effect
November 11/4/2021 UK BoE Interest Rate Decision 11/01/2021 Completion of VFMVN30 ETF portfolio restructuring
11/22/2021 China Loan Prime Rate 1Y 11/18/2021 Expiry date of the VN30 futures contract
11/25/2021 US FOMC Minutes 22−26 November, 2021 iShares MSCI Frontier 100 ETF restructuring
Nov-21 G-20 G-20 Summit
Announcement of FTSE Vietnam ETF portfolio restructuring in
12/7/2021 Australia RBA Interest Rate Decision 04−17 December, 2021
4Q21
Announcement of VanEck Vectors Vietnam (VNM) ETF portfolio
12/16/2021 US Fed Interest Rate Decision 11−17 December, 2021
restructuring in 4Q21
December
12/16/2021 UK BoE Interest Rate Decision 12/16/2021 Expiry date of the VN30 futures contract
12/17/2021 Japan BoJ Interest Rate Decision
12/20/2021 China Loan Prime Rate 1Y
Source: Tradingeconomics.com, Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research compilation

IV. Sector outlook
• Banks: By end-3Q21, credit growth is expected to reach 7.4% YTD, higher than the 6.1% YTD of 3Q20. Along with the reopening of
Vietnam’s economy since late-September 2021, the last quarter of the year usually records high credit growth. Thus, we expect 2021 credit
growth of about 13%; higher than the SBV's expected growth rate in the base-case scenario of 9–10%.
• Diversified financials: The 3Q21 EAT of brokerage companies showed strong YoY growth: SSI (+91%), HCM (+135%), VCI (+146%), and
VND (+225%). However, in October 2021, price movements of brokerage stocks were mostly sideways or down slightly. Based on expected
positive results in 4Q21, we see the valuation of brokerage stocks returning to relatively attractive levels, and believe that investors should
consider opening a position.
• Steel: Finished steel output in September 2021 reached 2.4mn tons (flat YoY), of which HRC maintained its impressive growth of 33% YoY
to reach 592,144 tons. Exports remain the bright spot and lead the sector’s success. Thanks to outstanding growth in 1H21, Vietnam’s
sales volume in 9M21 reached 24.8mn tons (+34% YoY), of which the total export volume reached 9.75mn tons (+29.3% YoY).
• Industrial Real Estate: 2021 profits are likely to be lower than expected, due to the pandemic; however, land bank that cannot be leased
this year is expected to generate a sharp increase in 2022 profits.
• Residential Real Estate: We believe that China's real estate situation in general and Evergrande's financial situation in particular will not
negatively affect Vietnam's real estate market, due to the following reasons: 1) Vietnam’s real estate market has been cooling down since
last year; 2) Vietnam's average house price to income ratio is still lower than that of other countries in the region; 3) Vietnam's
urbanization continues to grow exponentially; and 4) real estate companies in Vietnam should maintain financially healthy positions.
• F&B: We expect improvement in 4Q21 and a full recovery in 2022, as isolation measures are gradually removed. We estimate FY22 profits
of food and beverage enterprises to recover to pre-pandemic levels in 2019, showing high growth rates in 2022, from the low base of 2021.
The recovery will be in all product groups, including beer, milk, exported fruits and vegetables, and exported seafood.
• Utilities: Electricity consumption increased by 4.39% YoY in 9M21. Electricity production was negatively affected by the COVID-19
pandemic in August (-0.3% YoY) and September (-9.8% YoY). However, we expect output growth to recover in 4Q21. Hydropower
generators are the biggest beneficiaries, contributing 28% of total volume in 9M21 (9M20: 26%), thanks to favorable hydrology and a low-
cost power source. The proportion of renewable energy in overall production jumped from 4.4% in 9M20 to about 12% in 9M21.
• IT: The sector is benefiting from domestic digital transformation, as well as solid growth momentum of software exports.
• Seaport: Manufacturing activity showed signs of recovery as social distancing measures are being gradually eased. IIP recorded a 6.9%
MoM increase and a slight, 1.6% YoY, decrease in October 2021. We expect import-export turnover to reach about US$680bn (+25% YoY) in
2021. Accordingly, we forecast the total customs clearance volume and container throughput of seaports to reach 725mn tons (+5% YoY)
and 26.6mn TEU (+20% YoY), respectively.

IV. Sector outlook (cont’d)
• Asset quality is not expected to see significant changes, as banks are still allowed to restructure debts for customers
Banks affected by the COVID-19 pandemic until mid-2022, which can be alternated by the SBV if necessary.
• The SBV issued Circular No. 14/2021/TT-NHNN, amending Circular No. 01/2020/TT-NHNN, with the governor of the
SBV providing instructions for credit institutions and foreign branch banks on debt rescheduling, exemption of
reduction of interest and fees, and retention of debt category to assist borrowers affected by the Covid-19 pandemic,
to be carried out until June 30, 2022.
• By end-3Q21, credit growth is expected to reach 7.4% YTD, higher than the 6.1% YTD of 3Q20. Along with the
reopening of Vietnam’s economy since late-September 2021, the last quarter of the year usually records high credit
growth. Thus, we expect 2021 credit growth of about 13%; higher than the SBV's expected growth rate in the base-
case scenario of 9–10%.
• Some banks have announced reductions to interest rates of about 0.5%p to customers in the epicenter of the
pandemic, such as Ho Chi Minh City or Binh Duong province. In addition, many banks also offer credit packages with
extremely low rates, which are slightly higher than those of government bonds. The expansion of support packages
will adversely affect the income of banks in the short term, while virus isolation and how rapidly the economy
recovers will affect banks in the medium term.
• With banks starting to cut interest rates to support customers in the last months of 2021, as requested by the SBV, we
expect to see strong divergence between banks. In detail, joint stock commercial banks with good asset quality bear
less provisioning burden from the pandemic, while a customer base resistant to COVID-19 effects will help banks to
limit reductions to interest income, due to offerings of rate-support packages. Moreover, the ability to increase credit
is being considered, as the number of qualified customers will gradually decline, leading to fierce competition.
• Regardless of the positive outlook on credit growth in 4Q21, banks’ NIM is expected to see pressures, including: 1)
interest rate incentive packages; and 2) expectations for business and wholesale banking segments to drive credit
growth, which would lead to lower yield of interest-earning asset mix.
• In general, the valuations of banks are notably fragmented. Valuations of large banks are approaching historic highs
(average P/B of 2.3x), reflecting the soundness of their balance sheets. Meanwhile, small- and medium-sized banks
have more appealing valuations, with an average P/B of 1.8x.

• Brokerage companies are taking advantage of the market’s rapidly increasing demand from retail investors and are
Diversified financials likely to achieve their targets for revenue and profit. These companies made their business plans based on market
liquidity of VND15tr on a daily basis; however, the average daily trading value on the VN-Index since the beginning of
this year has exceeded VND19,802bn, while that of 3Q21 was VND21,565bn; 32% and 43.7% higher than the target,
respectively. Therefore, 3Q21 EAT of brokerage companies showed YoY strong growth: SSI (+91%), HCM (+135%), VCI
(+146%), and VND (+225%).
• Brokerage stocks were up by as much as 3 to 4 times, compared with the VN-Index. However, in October 2021, price
movements of brokerage stocks were mostly sideway or slightly down. Based on expected positive results in 4Q21, we
see the valuation of brokerage stocks returning to relatively attractive levels, and believe that investors should
consider opening a position.
Industrial Real Estate • The fourth Covid-19 outbreak is directly affecting businesses in existing industrial parks, while at the same time
slowing down investors’ surveys and searches for land leases. The pandemic is affecting not just Vietnam, but the
whole of Southeast Asia and India, which compete directly for investment capital with Vietnam.
• We expect the pandemic to directly reduce the profit of industrial-zone real estate companies in 2021; however,
land bank that cannot be leased this year is expected to generate a sharp increase in profit in 2022.
• We focus on businesses that possess large land banks with reasonable accumulated value; these could generate
good business results in 2021 and growth from 2022.
• The prolonged COVID-19 pandemic, which has had a negative impact on the economy in general, will also lead to
Residential Real limited demand for the real estate industry. According to our assessment, the real estate market has yet to show
Estate any signs of a bubble. We expect prices of real estate products to grow in FY22, as Covid-19 spread is effectively
controlled.
• We should not only consider the revenue and profit factors of real estate companies in 2021, but also focus on
companies with a wide sales network and ample capital to help in the long run.
• We believe that China's real estate situation in general, and Evergrande's financial situation in particular, will not
negatively affect Vietnam's real estate market, due to the following: 1) Vietnam’s real estate market has been
cooling down since last year; 2) Vietnam's average house price to income ratio is still lower than that of other
countries in the region; 3) Vietnam's urbanization continues to grow exponentially; and 4) real estate companies in
Vietnam should maintain financially healthy positions.

IV – Sector outlook (cont’d)
Steel Vietnam's steel consumption market in 3Q21 slowed under the impact of the fourth Covid-19 pandemic
• According to VSA, finished steel output in 3Q21 reached 7.16mn tons (+4% YoY), in line with our forecast, due to the
negative impact of social distancing in Southern Vietnam.
• Finished steel output in September 2021 reached 2.4mn tons (+0% YoY), of which HRC maintained its impressive
growth of 33% YoY to reach 592,144 tons.
Exports remain the bright spot and lead sector’s success
• With outstanding growth in 1H21, Vietnam’s sales volume in 9M21 reached 24.8mn tons (+34% YoY), of which total
export volume reached 9.75mn tons (+29.3% YoY).
• In 9M21, export price increased by 32% YTD and reached US$855/tons in September 2021. The export value of
finished steel in 9M21 reached US$8.23bn (+125% YoY).
• We expect the export market to be a bright spot in 4Q21 and FY22, thanks to the following:
➢ China will cut steel production by 12% in 2H21. In addition, the price difference between US and Europe
versus Asia will benefit steel producers outside China, which meet the tariff requirements.
➢ Power shortages in China's winter will affect China’s steel exports.
➢ The US and European countries continue to maintain public investment policies.
Construction steel market expected to recover after social distancing
• Iron ore prices in the Shanghai market have decreased 58% from their peak in May 2021, to US$93/mt in September
2021, thereby reducing pressure on domestic construction steel prices. According to our survey and VSA, construction
steel prices have decreased to VND16mn/mt in September 2021 (vs. VND17.2mn/mt in June 2021), which could re-
stimulate construction activities in provinces with no social distancing restrictions.
• From October 2021, the southern market was reopened and we expect steel companies to have a good recovery in
output in 4Q21.
• Thus, we assess that there will be a growth divergence. For galvanized steel manufacturers, such as HSG and NKG, we
maintain positive recommendations, thanks to export/total output ratios of about 60%. For domestic construction
steel companies, such as HPG or POM, we think the impact will be greater, but not too negative, thanks to the
government's supportive policies from October 2021.

Utilities • According to Vietnam Electricity Corporation (EVN), electricity consumption increased by 4.39% YoY in 9M21.
Electricity production was negatively affected by the COVID-19 pandemic in August (-0.3% YoY) and September (-
9.8% YoY). However, we expect output growth to recover in 4Q21.
• Hydropower generators are the biggest beneficiaries, which contributed 28% of total volume in 9M21 (9M20: 26%),
thanks to favorable hydrology and a low-cost power source. The proportion of renewable energy in the overall
production jumped from 4.4% in 9M20 to about 12% in 9M21.
• In contrast, the share of thermal power decreased in 9M21. However, the mobilization rate of thermal power
enterprises in the South is expected to improve in 4Q21, thanks to the recovery of production as current
distancing measures are eased.
Software and Services • Software and Services are expected to recover in the 2021–2025 period, with business software, IT equipment and
services projected to enjoy the strongest recoveries, thanks to: 1) enterprises/organizations increasing focus on
optimizing operational efficiency, creating an improved and more comfortable working environment, especially as
the COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in rapid changes to work and consumption patterns; 2) demand for digital
transformation of domestic businesses has been accelerating, in line with the government’s policies; and 3)
Vietnam's software exports have maintained solid growth momentum, with the advantage of labor resources and
the increasing consolidation of Vietnam’s worldwide software outsourcing.
• We forecast the EPS growth of listed companies in the Software and Services industry to reach 22% YoY in 2021,
recovering from 7% YoY in 2020.

• Dismal 3Q21 results: 3Q21 posted a contrasting picture in the F&B industry between Vietnam and the world. The
Food & Beverage consumption of food and beverages in major regions, such as the US, Europe, and China, has almost recovered from
the worst of the Covid-19 pandemic, thanks to widespread vaccinations. Meanwhile, Vietnam has been through its
darkest period, as the Delta strain resulted in strict social distancing. As a result, Vietnamese was forced to stay at
home, reducing the demand for food and beverage consumption. In addition, food exporting companies had to
reduce their operating capacity, due to lack of labor or interruption of supply chain. Although expectations for overall
results are dismal in 3Q21, we still see bright spots in the 3Q21 earnings season. These bright spots come from firms
that produce ready-to-eat packaged foods with long shelf lives, or food-exporting companies that can control both
manufacturing and fight against the epidemic.
• Expecting improvement in 4Q21 and full recovery in 2022: Isolation measures are being gradually removed, which
will help domestic production and consumption return to normal. We expect FY22 profits of food and beverage
enterprises to recover to pre-epidemic levels in 2019, showing high growth rates in 2022, from the low base of 2021.
The recovery will be in all product groups, including beer, milk, exported fruits and vegetables, and exported seafood.
Seaport The industrial production index continued its recovery in October 2021
• Manufacturing activity showed signs of recovery as social distancing measures are being gradually eased. IIP
recorded a 6.9% MoM increase and a slight, 1.6% YoY, decrease in October 2021.
• By begin-October, the national labor utilization index increased by 7.7% MoM. In the Southern region, labor
utilization came back in the major provinces of HCM (+59% MoM), Binh Duong (+5.1% MoM), Dong Nai (+4.6%
MoM) and Ba Ria – Vung Tau (+34.9% MoM). The labor utilization index in the Northern provinces recorded
growth: Vinh Phuc (+1.2% MoM), Hai Phong (+1.2% MoM), and Hung Yen (+1.1% MoM).
• Import-export activities saw growth rates slow. In 10M21, total import-export value was estimated at US$537bn
(+22% YoY). The growth rate of import-export value has slowed for the fifth consecutive month since May 2021.
Growth prospects of the Seaport segment in 2021
• For the rest of 2021, we expect production activities, especially in the Southern region, to recover and import-
export activities to maintain the same growth rate as in 10M21. We expect import-export value to reach about
US$680bn (+25% YoY) in 2021. Accordingly, we forecast the total customs clearance volume and container
throughput of seaports to reach 725mn tons (+5% YoY) and 26.6mn TEU, respectively (+20% YoY).

V. Stock recommendations
Investment themes Industry 12-month target price (VND) and potential upside
BCM VHM NVL PDR IJC
Post-COVID-19 demand Real Estate 70,800 107,000 131,700 116,500 36,300
49% 36% 27% 21% 11%
SHB TCB VCB
Post-COVID-19 demand Banks 35,000 63,100 112,600
29% 24% 20%
NAF MWG
Post-COVID-19 demand Consumer/ Retail 35,800 148,100
23% 16%
PLX POW
Post-COVID-19 demand Utilities 64,800 14,000
19% 13%
HSG HPG NKG
Public investment Materials 60,700 71,400 69,300
27% 27% 26%
Source: Mirae Asset Vietnam Research (closing prices on October 26, 2021)

Investment And Industrial Development Corporation (BCM VN)
Leading industrial infrastructure developer in Vietnam
Investment points
(Maintain) BUY BCM is the owner of the largest IP land bank in Vietnam
• The total size of projects managed by the company around 15,000 ha, including joint ventures VSIP (BCM owns
49%) and BW (BCM owns 30%). In addition, BCM owns nearly 1,000 ha of urban land in the Binh Duong New
Target price (VND, 12M) 70,800 City project.
• Becamex’s old industrial zones all have occupancy rates of nearly 100%. In addition, recent industrial zones,
such as the Bau Bang Industrial Park (2015) and expanded Bau Bang Industrial Park (2017) are also attracting
Current price (10/26/21) 47,500 investment, and currently have occupancy rates of 88% and 37%, respectively. The total industrial land
available for lease of BCM reaches about 710 ha, mainly located at Binh Duong province, the hot spot in
attracting FDI.
FY21 outlook
Expected return 49%
• In 2H21, despite the covid outbreak in the third quarter, we expect BCM to record revenue of VND5,265bn
(+29% YoY) and NPAT VND2,037bn (+50% YoY). For FY21, the company can achieve VND8,375bn in revenue
NP (21F, VND bn) 2,965 (+28% YoY) and VND2,965bn in NPAT (+49.4% YoY).
Consensus NP (21F, VND bn) NA • BCM is developing many large projects through the joint venture and cooperation with key partners (Warburg
Pincus, NTT East group, Tokyu), leading to positive prospects for the company in the years ahead.
EPS Growth (21F, %) 65
Valuation: Based on target P/B of 4.7x in comparison with that of peers (VGC, SZC, IDC), BCM's target price is
P/E (21F, x) 17.9 VND70,800/share (49% upside) and we recommend BUY for the stock.
Market cap (VND bn) 51,750
Shares outstanding (mn) 1,035
Free float (%) FY (31/12) 12/18 12/19 12/20 12/21F

3.2
Revenue (VNDbn) 6,571 8,213 6,505 8,375
Foreign ownership (%) 1.9 OP (VNDbn) 2,063 1,812 1,908 3,029
OP margin (%) 31.4 22.1 29.3 50.8
52-week low 37,300
NP (VNDbn) 2,211 2,487 1,986 2,965
52-week high 61,300 EPS (VND) 2,045 2,332 1,731 2,864
ROE (%) 15.5 17.7 12.0 18.0
(%) 1M 6M 12M
P/E (x) 24.2 24.1 28.9 17.9
Absolute 11.1 -10.7 25.9 P/B (x) 4.1 3.5 3.4 3.8
Relative 3.7 -25.5 -24.4 Note: Net profit refers to net profit attributable to controlling interests

Vinhomes JSC (VHM VN) Top pick
Maintaining leadership position
Investment points
(Maintain) BUY • In 9M21, VHM achieved VND61.7tn in revenue (+25% YoY) and VND27.1tn in net profit (+66% YoY). Notably,
gross profit margin increased from 37% to 56% thanks to bulk sales at Vinhomes Ocean Park and Vinhomes
Smart City.
Target price • We expect continued positive business results in 4Q21 and early 2022, based on bulk sales from three big
107,000
(VND, 12M) projects, including Vinhomes Ocean Park, Vinhomes Smart City, and Vinhomes Grand Park. In addition,
industrial areas in Quang Ninh and Hai Phong will get approval in principle in the upcoming months.
Current price • Most of the projects for sale are mainly concentrated in Northern Vietnam, which was less affected by the
78,700 pandemic. Moreover, the online sales system makes it easier to conduct sales activities during the pandemic
(10/26/21)
period.
• We forecast VND83,429bn in revenue (+16.6% YoY) and VND31,906bn in net profit (+13.1% YoY) in FY21. For
Expected return 36% FY22–FY23, we forecast a CAGR for net profit at 11%, with the debt-to-equity ratio declining to just 17.6% (FY20:
27.8%). Regarding sales, VHM plans to open for sale three new projects in Hanoi: Wonder Park, Dream City,
and Co Loa. From FY22 to FY23, VHM will launch two big projects in Can Gio and Green Ha Long.
NP (21F, VNDbn) 31,906
Risks
Consensus NP (21F, VNDbn) 35,099
• We remain cautious on rising construction prices, internal trading with other Vingroup subsidiaries, and —
EPS Growth (21F, %) -17 most of all — the lasting economic impact of the pandemic.
P/E (21F, x) 11.5

FY (31/12) 12/18 12/19 12/20 12/21F 12/22F 12/23F
Free float (%) 22.6
Revenue (VNDbn) 38,664 51,627 71,547 83,429 96,890 104,641
Foreign ownership (%) 22.9 OP (VNDbn) 19,725 29,715 37,305 40,663 41,770 49,365
OP margin (%) 51 57.5 52.1 48.7 43.1 47.2
52-week low (VND) 57,400
NP (VNDbn) 14,776 24,319 28,206 31,906 32,706 38,781
52-week high (VND) 91,100 EPS (VND) 4,503 6,502 8,315 6,909 7,023 8,448
ROE (%) 57.0 43.8 38.6 26.4 21.9 21.2
(%) 1M 6M 12M
P/E (x) 16.3 13.0 10.8 11.5 11.3 9.4
Absolute 1.4 -2.7 33.7 P/B (x) 5.7 5.0 3.4 3.9 3.1 2.6
Relative -2.5 -14.2 -14.6 Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Vietnam Research

No Va Land Investment Group Corp (NVL VN) Top pick
Great potential from infrastructure investment
Investment points
(Maintain) BUY • Not including announced projects, NVL still has 3,700 ha of land waiting to be developed, most of which is
reserved for hospitality real estate and residential projects in and around Ho Chi Minh City. By 2030, it plans to
have 15,000 ha for development, three times larger than its current land bank.
Target price (VND, 12M) 131,700 • NVL projects will benefit greatly from infrastructure investments in the near future: Long Thanh International
Airport, to be completed in 2025; Phan Thiet International Airport Phase 1 (with a capacity of 2mn
passengers/year) and the Ho Chi Minh City - Dau Giay - Phan Thiet Highway, to be completed in 2022; in
addition, the Dau Giay - Bao Loc, Bien Hoa - Vung Tau expressways are expected to begin construction once
Current price
103,300 the pandemic is under control.
(10/26/21)
Risks
• We believe the biggest risk for NVL comes from the COVID-19 pandemic, which could delay construction
Expected return 27% progress and handover plans, leading to funding shortages. In addition, the possible tightening of credit for
the real estate industry in the future is also a potential risk.
NP (21F, VNDbn) 4,997
Consensus NP (21F, VNDbn) 4,579
P/E (21F, x) 35.2
Market cap (VNDbn) 149,865
Shares outstanding (mn) 1,474 FY (31/12) 12/18 12/19 12/20 12/21F 12/22F 12/23F
Revenue (VNDbn) 15,635 11,026 5,241 13,943 18,022 23,127
Free float (%) 34.2
Operating profit (VNDbn) 4,678 592 5,049 7,493 6,005 7,982
Foreign ownership (%) 8.7 OP margin (%) 33.7 28.8 36.5 53.7 33.3 34.5
52-week low (VND) 44,000 Net profit (VNDbn) 3,267 3,387 3,906 4,997 3,787 4,835
EPS (VND) 3,533 3,579 4,021 5,073 3,862 4,919
52-week high (VND) 121,000 ROE (%) 19.1 15.3 13.9 14.7 9.9 11.0
(%) 1M 6M 12M P/E (x) 16.5 16.2 16.4 35.2 46.2 36.3
P/B (x) 2.9 2.4 2.1 7.7 6.8 6.0
Absolute -0.6 29.8 125.5
Note: All figures are based on consolidated VAS; NP refers to net profit attributable to controlling interests
Relative -4.4 18.4 77.4
Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Vietnam Research

Phat Dat Real Estate Development JSC (PDR VN) Top pick
Growing despite the pandemic
Investment points
(Maintain) BUY • Despite the prolonged pandemic in the South, business results in 9M21 were positive, with total revenue of
VND2,390bn (-4.2% YoY) and profit after tax of VND1,109bn (+54.5% YoY), thanks to the handover of parts of
the high-rise areas of subdivisions 4 and 9 in the Nhon Hoi project. In 2021, PDR is forecast to record
Target price (VND, VND5,147bn in revenue (+31.6% YoY) and VND2,061bn in NPAT (+68.9% YoY).
116,500
12M) • PDR currently holds nearly 470 ha of land bank, concentrated in provinces with great potential for tourism
such as Binh Dinh, Quang Ngai, Binh Duong, Ba Ria - Vung Tau, Phu Quoc, and Da Nang.
Current price • PDR also entered the real estate industry, with a 24-ha logistics area near Cai Mep Port (it has invested in
96,300 more than VND1,136bn). On top of that, PDR plans to expand to nearly 6,000-ha of industrial parks.
(10/26/21)
• PDR is also looking at new opportunity in renewable energy, mainly wind and solar power, with a plan to
provide 650 MW of wind power and 1,300 MW of solar power in 2025.
Expected return 21%
• On top of that, PDR has just established a subsidiary operating in real estate brokerage service with an initial
capital contribution of more than VND85.6bn.
NP (21F, VND bn) 2,061 Risks
Consensus NP (21F, VND bn) N/A • In the event that the Covid-19 epidemic lasts longer than expected, causing economic stagnation, it may have
a negative impact on the construction plans, sale targets, and other expansion plans.
EPS Growth (21F, %) 77.8
P/E (21F, x) 27.5
Shares outstanding (mn) 487

FY (31/12) 12/18 12/19 12/20 12/21F 12/22F 12/23F
Free float (%) 37.8
Revenue (VNDbn) 2,148 3,400 3,911 5,147 8,026 11,086
Foreign ownership (%) 3.3 OP (VNDbn) 560 1,101 1,574 2,585 3,979 5,771
OP margin (%) 26.1 32.4 40.2 50.2 49.6 52.1
52-week low 29,094
NP (VNDbn) 643 874 1,220 2,061 3,172 4,602
52-week high 99,700 EPS (VND) 1,252 1,706 2,381 4,234 6,516 9,454
ROE (%) 19.4 21.4 24.7 26.0 29.4 30.8
(%) 1M 6M 12M P/E (x) 11.2 10.3 17.6 27.5 17.9 12.3
Absolute 22.7 37.8 237.2 P/B (x) 2.0 2.0 4.0 7.2 5.3 3.8
Relative 19.8 24.7 192.7 Source: Company data, MAS Vietnam Research estimates

Becamex Infrastructure Development JSC (IJC VN)
Down to the wire
Investment points
(Maintain) TRADING BUY • 9M21 earnings reached 86% of PBT guidance: IJC recorded 9M21 solid results. Revenue was VND2,339bn
(+27.1% YoY), while pre-tax profit was VND691bn (+151% YoY). Net profit after tax (NPAT) jumped by 147% YoY
to VND554bn, equivalent to EPS of VND2,519. 9M21 results reached 76% and 87% of its FY21 guidance on
Target price revenue and NPAT, respectively.
36,300
(VND, 12M) • For the last quarter of FY21, we expect IJC business activities to be brighter than 3Q21. The company has great
potential to beat the 2021 guidance. In our conservative forecast, we maintain NPAT forecast at VND801bn,
equivalent to 104% of the earnings guidance.
Current price
32,800 • Acquiring land in the Hoa Loi resettlement area: Land bank investments are on track. In 3Q21, the company
(10/26/21)
spent VND380bn to acquire land bank in the Hoa Loi resettlement area. The project will be developed from FY22
onward.
Expected return 11% • Toll collection on National Route 13 to resume from 4Q21: On October 2, 2021, guidance was released by
Binh Duong’s Department of Transportation to resume BOT (build-operate-transfer) toll collection, allowing the
BOT toll collection on National Route 13 of IJC to resume operations from 4Q21. The operation not only brings
NP (21F, VND bn) 657 quarterly revenue of VND65bn, but also generates stable cash flow for the company.
Consensus NP (21F, VND bn) NA Valuation
We maintain IJC target price at VND36,300/share (11% upside). However, the stock price has increased by 20% since
our last report in September 2021 (vs. +10% for the VNIndex in the same period). Therefore, we downgrade our
P/E (21F, x) 10.9 recommendation to Trading Buy (from Buy).

FY (31/12) 12/17 12/18 12/19 12/20 12/21F 12/22F
Free float (%) 50.2 Revenue (VNDbn) 971 1,246 1,600 2,141 3,071 3,550
Operating profit (VNDbn) 215 268 343 445 801 997
Foreign ownership (%) 1.7
OP margin 22.8 21.5 21.5 20.8 26.1 28.1
52-week low 11,300 NP (VNDbn) 186 233 304 370 657 798
EPS (VND) 1,239 1,536 2,008 2,698 3,027 3,675
52-week high 35,500
ROE (%) 7.3 12.4 15.3 19.0 23.4 21.0
(%) 1M 6M 12M P/E (x) 19.5 14.7 15.3 10.3 10.9 9
P/B (x) 4.5 3.7 3.7 1.7 2.0 1.8
Absolute -0.7 -13.9 139.6
Relative 0.6 -25.5 89.8 Source: Company data, MAS Vietnam Research estimates

Saigon Hanoi Commercial Joint Stock Bank (SHB VN) Top pick
Transforming
Investment points
(Initiation) BUY
Soaring profit
• In 9M21, Saigon Hanoi Commercial Joint Stock Bank (SHB) recorded solid results: pre-tax income reached
Target price (VND, VND5,055bn (+93.9% YoY), achieving 86% of the company’s 2021 target, while total assets increased by 12.5%
35,000 YTD to VND464tn.
12M)
• According to SHB, after many consecutive quarters of improvement, by 3Q21, ROA and ROE hit 1.5% and
25.6% respectively, approaching the levels of Vietnam’s leading JS commercial banks. The bank's cost-to-
Current price income ratio (CIR) in 9M21 was below 30%, an optimal level, and a sharp decrease compared with 9M20
27,100
(10/26/21) (40.4%) and FY20 (35.2%).
SHB to exceed 2021 PBT target (+17%), thanks to unexpected income amid increasing bad debt
provisioning
Expected return 29%
• In August 2021, SHB divested 100% of the charter capital of consumer lending company SHB Finance to
Krungsri, a member of Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group (MUFG), for approximately VND3,600bn. SHB expects to
NP (21F, VND bn) 5,785 book VND1,500bn in 2021 (transferring 50% of charter capital) and receive the remaining after three years.
SHB is also divesting SHB Laos and SHB Cambodia in 4Q21.
Consensus NP (21F, VND bn) N/A
• Recently, SHB set its foreign ownership ratio at 10% to prepare for the offering of shares to foreign investors
EPS growth (21F, %) 98.4 and strategic investors. According to market practice in recent years, the issue price will be around 2.5–3
times the book value for quality banks with ROE of over 30%. We expect SHB’s 2021 ROE to reach 21.6% (17.0%
P/E (21F, x) 9.2
and 14.9% in 2022 and 2023, excluding new, upcoming capital injections, 10.5% stock dividend and 28%
Market cap (VND bn) 53,145 issuance for existing shareholders); thus, the issue price will not be less than 2.3 times book value.
Shares outstanding (mn) 1,926 (%) VN-Index SHB VN FY (31/12) 12/18 12/19 12/20 12/21F 12/22F 12/23F
250 Net interest income (VNDbn) 5,556 7,830 9,933 13,315 13,988 14,950
Free float (%) 81.1 Net fee income (VNDbn) 714 694 523 491 539 603
Foreign ownership (%) 4.0 200
TOI (VNDbn) 6,742 9,389 12,207 17,005 16,717 17,554
NP (VNDbn) 1,672 2,418 2,607 5,785 5,463 5,602
52-week low 11,545 EPS (VND) 1,390 1,563 1,514 3,004 2,836 2,909
150
ROE (%) 10.78% 13.88% 12.26% 21.63% 16.99% 14.88%
52-week high 33,400
P/E (x) (@VND35.000) 5.2 3.4 11.2 11.7 12.3 12.0
100 P/B (x) (@VND35.000) 0.5 0.4 1.2
Share performance (%) 1M 6M 12M 2.3 1.9 1.7
Book value (VND) 13,570 15,377 13,727 15,294 18,102 20,983
Absolute -0.9 7.4 85.1
50 Note: All figures are based on consolidated VAS; NP refers to net profit attributable to controlling interests
Relative -3.2 -4.1 39.7 Oct 20 Dec 20 Feb 21 Apr 21 Jun 21 Aug 21 Oct 21 Source: Company data, MAS Vietnam Research estimates

Vietnam Technological and Commercial JSB (TCB VN) Top pick
Momentum persists
Investment points
(Upgrade) BUY • Growth has been immune to COVID-19’s challenges. In 9M21, credit growth was impressive, at 17% YoY.
Current accounts and saving accounts ratios (CASA) reached a new high of 49% (+2.9%p YTD). NIM expanded
by 82bps YTD to 5.7%, the second highest NIM among Vietnam’s banks. Total 9M21 PBT of the bank has
Target price reached VND17.1tr (US$737mn), up by 59.6% YoY and accomplishing 86.4% of the annual target.
63,100
(VND, 12M)
• TCB is expected to deliver second highest profit among the banking sector. Over the next 3–5 years, TCB aims
to achieve annual double-digit growth, which is backed by the following indications: 1) a high capital adequacy
Current price ratio (CAR) endures substantial credit growth; 2) superior CASA secured high NIM; and 3) decreasing CIR and
51,000
(10/26/21) provisioning helped support its bottom line.
• Based on its impressive performance in 9M21 and increasing projected figures, we raise our target price for
Expected return 24.0% TCB to VND63,100 (from VND52,100), equivalent to a target P/B of 2.4x.
Risks
NP (21F, VNDbn) 17,271
• Key risks to our call including: 1) peaking CASA caused high short-term funding to medium- and long-term
Consensus NP (21F, VNDbn) 16,832 lending ratio (SFMLL) almost reached the regulated cap of 40% in 2Q21, although fortunately it fell to 32.6% in
3Q21; 2) extraordinary achievements set high expectations from shareholders; and 3) concentration risk
EPS growth (21F, %) 39.9
continued to be our key concern, with high credit exposure to real estate and corporate bonds of 77% in its
P/E (21F, x) 12.8 credit book.

(%) VN-Index TCB VN FY (31/12) 12/18 12/19 12/20 12/21F 12/22F 12/23F
270 Net interest inc. (VNDbn) 11,127 14,258 18,751 25,475 29,292 33,794
Free float (%) 77.1
Net non-interest inc. (VNDbn) 7,223 6,810 8,291 9,970 10,434 11,345
Operating profit (VNDbn) 10,661 12,838 15,800 22,141 25,056 29,163
52-week low 21,350 NP (VNDbn) 8,463 10,075 12,325 17,271 19,545 22,749
170
EPS (VND) 2,420 2,878 3,516 4,919 5,567 6,479
52-week high 58,600
ROE (%) 21.5 17.7 18.0 20.8 19.4 18.7
120
(%) 1M 6M 12M P/E (x) 21.0 12.0 14.5 12.8 11.3 9.7
Absolute 0.6 27.4 112.1 P/B (x) 3.4 1.9 2.4 2.4 1.6 1.3
70
Relative -1.9 14.7 68.0 Oct 20 Feb 21 Jun 21 Oct 21 BVPS (VND) 14,809 17,734 21,289 26,028 31,433 37,724

JS Commercial Bank for Foreign Trade of Vietnam (VCB VN) Top pick
On top of profit
Investment points
(Maintain) BUY
Staying on top of profit and growth
• We forecast VCB’s 2021 NII and NPBT will grow at 7.65% and 11.54%, respectively, with the expectation that
Target price 2021 NIM will decrease slightly, from 3% in 2020 to 2.96% in 2021. We maintain our conservative view about
112,600
(VND, 12M) 2021 NIM, to better reflect: 1) the prolonged social distancing situation; and 2) the likelihood that VCB may
have to make more reductions in lending rates (to ease difficulties for customers) starting from 3Q21. In
Current price 1H21, VCB supported its customers by reducing interest payments by VND2,115bn for the affected loans
94,000 (estimated at VND400tn, accounting for ~43.4% of the total loan book).
(10/26/21)
Attractive valuation, relatively safe in medium term; capital rise story
Expected return
• We believe VCB will achieve 2021 EPS of VND5,546 and book value of VND30,428. Currently, VCB is trading
20%
around the 4-year average trailing P/E and trailing P/B of 17.6x and 3.5x, respectively. This is a relatively safe
valuation in light of VCB’s sizable provisioning. In the near future, if an increase in VCB’s charter capital is
NP (21F, VNDbn) 20,568 approved, the bank will have access to new sources of funding to optimize costs. This is essential amid the
current slow growth in customer deposits due to low interest rates.
Consensus NP (21F, VNDbn) n/a
EPS growth (21F, %) 23.9
P/E (21F, x) 17.53
Shares outstanding (mn) 3,709 FY (31/12) 12/18 12/19 12/20 12/21F 12/22F 12/23F
Net interest income (VNDbn) 28,409 34,577 36,285 39,060 44,698 51,123
Free float (%) 25.2
Net fee income (VNDbn) 3,402 4,307 6,607 8,210 9,021 9,310
Foreign ownership (%) 23.5 TOI (VNDbn) 39,278 45,730 49,063 53,845 61,025 68,522
52-week low (VND) 82,300 NP (VNDbn) 14,622 18,526 18,473 20,568 25,299 28,601
EPS (VND) 3,584 4,481 4,470 5,540 6,814 7,703
52-week high (VND) 116,400
ROE (%) 25.49% 25.90% 21.11% 19.88% 20.17% 18.80%
(%) 1M 6M 12M P/E (x) 14.9 20.5 21.9 17.53 14.75 13.05
Absolute -3.3 -8.8 10.0 P/B (x) 3.1 4.1 3.9 3.20 2.70 2.24
Relative -7.1 -20.3 -38.2 BVPS (VND) 17,283 21,808 25,370 30,428 37,196 44,843

Nafoods Group JSC (NAF VN) Top pick
Accelerating thanks to EVFTA

Investment points
• We recommend Buy for NAF with a target price of VND35,800, based on a target P/E of 22x (1-year historical
(Initiation) BUY P/E) applied to 2022 forecast for adjusted EPS of VND1,626.
• NAF is the largest passion fruit concentrate producer in Vietnam and a major global producer, with 8% global
market share. NAF has a competitive advantage, thanks to a closed value chain (from seeding to
Target price (VND, 12M) 35,800 manufacturing fruit juice concentrate). NAF is also among the top fruit & vegetable exporters, with the most
up-to-date manufacturing technology in Vietnam, offering a wide range of products, including concentrate,
puree, IQF, dried, and fresh. In 2020, NAF completed its new dried fruit–nut factory in Long An province, with
Current price total capacity of 300 tons of product/month. Thanks to the new factory, NAF launched its dried fruit-nut
29,000
(10/26/2021) products from December 2020, which have quickly become its best-selling offerings, with over 100X40ft
containers exported in 8M21. We believe dried fruit-nut products should maintain a high growth rate of over
30% YoY in FY22–FY25.
Expected return 23.4%
• 9M21, NAF reported revenue growth of 32% YoY and NPAT growth of 19% YoY, as the European and US
markets have re-opened since 1Q21, after widespread COVID-19 vaccinations. We estimate NAF’s FY21
NPAT (21F, VND bn) 81 revenue will reach VND1,574bn (+30.9% YoY) and NPAT VND81bn (+31.8% YoY), based on signed contracts.
Consensus NP (21F, VND bn) N/a The estimated EAT is 6% higher than the company’s target.
EPS Growth (21F, %) 34.5

• In 2022, NAF is expected to record strong revenue growth of 24.4% YoY, thanks to the full recovery of the
European market and reopening of the Chinese and Southeast Asian markets. FY22 should be a fruitful year
P/E (21F, x) 23.6 for NAF, with projected NPAT growth of 38.5% YoY.
Market cap (VND bn) 1,332 FY (31/12) 2020 2021F 2022F 2023F
Net revenue(VND bn) 1,203 1,574 1,958 2,333
Shares outstanding (mn) 47.6 111 118 154 188
Operating income (VND bn)
Free float (%) 44.7 Operating income – growth (%YoY) 31% 6% 31% 23%
NPAT(VND bn) 61 81 112 146
Net profit adjusted (VND bn) 42 59 87 118
52-week low 17,800 EPS adjusted (VND) 913 1,228 1,626 2,087
EPS growth (YoY) 24.1% 34.5% 32.4% 28.4%
52-week high 34,300
ROE 8.2% 9.7% 11.8% 13.4%
(%) 1M 6M 12M ROA 4.0% 4.6% 5.8% 7.0%
Absolute -6.3 -5.9 46.8 Dividend/Par value (%) 0% 0% 0% 0%
Relative -12.5 -11.5 -15.5 Note: All figures are based on consolidated VAS; NP refers to net profit attributable to controlling interests
Source: Company data, MAS Vietnam Research estimates

Mobile World Corporation (MWG VN)
Every challenge is an opportunity
Investment points
• In 9M21, revenue and EAT of Mobile World Corporation (MWG) increased by 7% and 12% YoY, completing 69%
and 70% of its business plan, respectively. Fortunately, as social distancing measures were widely applied on a
(Maintain) TRADING BUY large scale in August 2021, a low season for MWG, the consequence of the epidemic was somewhat reduced.
• Net profit margin improved significantly, from 2.4% in July to 3.4% in August and 4% in September 2021,
thanks to the application of technology in sales during the quarantine period and cost reduction approaches.
Target price In addition, the renegotiation on store rentals will support MWG's profit margin in the short term.
148,100
(VND, 12M) • Thanks to the uninterrupted operation of BHX stores throughout the application of social distancing
measures, traffic to BHX’s website reached the top 10 in Vietnam in August, supporting sustainable growth of
Current price online grocery sales in the future. Although the epidemic affected MWG's sales of electronic products, it also
128,000
(10/26/21) accelerated the elimination of small and medium-sized retailers. In short term, social distancing status
increased the demand of devices to support learning and working at home, and partly affected the supply of
electronic products, especially in the provinces. MWG can thus limit price reduction to stimulate demand of
Expected return +16% old products, increase its market share and improve its profit margins in both the short and long term.
Risks
NP (21F, VNDbn) 4,497 • In the short term, a high trading multiple of 20.6x P/E draws correction risk to MWG’s shareholders. If MWG
cannot maintain a reasonable profit growth level, the current trading multiple would be difficult to sustain.
Consensus NP (21F, VNDbn) N/A
• The pandemic has had a negative impact on personal income in particular. Thus, demand for non-essential
EPS Growth (21F, %) -27.2
items, such as phones and electronic products — profit generators for MWG — has been low. In addition,
P/E (21F, x) 20.6 while the revenue of the grocery chain has enjoyed momentum in recent years, the chain has not yet reached
breakeven point, due to being in the growth stage. As a result, MWG’s bottom line will continue to face
Market cap (VND bn) 93,747 challenges to growth in the near term.
Shares outstanding (mn) 713 FY (31/12) 12/18 12/19 12/20 12/21F 12/22F 12/23F
Free float (%) 75.4 Revenue (VNDbn) 86,516 102,174 108,546 120,086 133,976 147,791
OP (VNDbn) 3,870 4,977 5,216 6,380 7,752 8,742
OP margin (%) 4.5 4.9 4.8 5.3 5.8 5.9
NP (VNDbn) 2,879 3,836 3,920 4,497 5,519 6,274
52-week high (VND) 133,900 EPS (VND) 6,641 8,916 8,838 6,431 7,741 8,545
ROE (%) 38.66 36.32 28.38 26.15 26.13 24.23
(%) 1M 6M 12M
P/E (x) 19.91 14.83 14.96 20.56 17.08 15.47
Absolute 4.2 31.2 82.9
P/B (x) 6.52 4.83 3.90 4.98 4.16 3.51
Relative 0.2 19.6 34.5

Vietnam National Petroleum Group (PLX VN)
Shifting to a more positive outlook
Investment points
(Maintain) TRADING BUY • Petrolimex (PLX) holds a key position in domestic petroleum market: Accounting for about 50% of the
domestic market share, PLX is Vietnam’s leading enterprise in petroleum trading. Vietnam’s retail network of
17,000 petroleum stations of all economic sectors nationwide, of which PLX's retail network has more than
Target price 5,500 company-owned petroleum station and agents.
64,800
(VND, 12M) • After tough time in 3Q21, 4Q21 outlook will be optimistic: In 3Q21, many provinces and big cities extended
the social distancing period according to Directive No.16/CT-TTg. Petrolimex's total sales volume in August
2021 was only approximately 50%, compared with that of June 2021. PLX's NPAT in 3Q21 was only VND76bn (-
Current price
54,600 91% YoY). However, with the recovery of petroleum price in 4Q21, the company's NPAT is expected to strongly
(10/26/21)
increase in 4Q21 and fulfill our FY21 forecast of VND3,229bn (+266% YoY).
• PLX sold nearly 52mn treasury shares. Since the beginning of the year, PLX has registered to sell treasury
Expected return 18.7% shares three times in March, May (25mn shares/time) and September (8mn shares). In the first two times, all
50mn shares were sold successfully, while the third time, PLX sold only 1.78mn shares. Eneos Corporation was
the buyer in all three phases, thereby, increased the ownership rate from less than 1% to 5.08% and became a
NP (21F, VND bn) 3,229 major shareholder of PLX. PLX collected total of VND2,900bn, which is an important additional source for the
company's business.
Consensus NP (21F, VND bn) 3,711
Valuation: We apply historical P/E and P/B to evaluate PLX with target price of VND64,800/share (19% upside).
EPS Growth (21F, %) 226 We recommend Trading Buy for the stock.
P/E (21F, x) 21.8
Shares outstanding (mn) 1,271 FY (31/12) 12/17 12/18 12/19 12/20 12/21F 12/22F
Revenue (VNDbn) 153,697 191,932 189,604 123,919 130,202 143,222
Free float (%) 9.4
Operating profit (VNDbn) 4,158 4,789 4,827 594 4,416 4,639
Foreign ownership (%) 17.6 OP margin 2.7 2.5 2.5 0.5 3.4 3.2
52-week low NP (VNDbn) 3,468 3,748 4,158 988 3,229 3,385

45,150
EPS (VND) 3,000 2,859 3,166 764 2,495 2,616
52-week high 59,600 17.1 16.2 17.0
ROE (%) 4.0 11.1 9.6
P/E (x) 25.0 18.5 17.7 73.3 21.8 21.7
(%) 1M 6M 12M
P/B (x) 4.2 3.0 2.9 3.0 2.3 2.2
Absolute 9.2 8.5 9.2
Relative 6.2 -3.7 -37.2 Source: Company data, MAS Vietnam Research estimates

PetroVietnam Power Corporation (POW VN) Top pick
Nhon Trach 3&4 projects are on track

Investment points
(Maintain) TRADING BUY • POW announced 9M21 output of 12,206mn kWh (-19% YoY) and revenue of VND20,967bn (-4% YoY). The
higher volume of the Hua Na (+23% YoY) and Dakdrinh (+35% YoY) hydropower plants partly made up for the
reduction in that of the Ca Mau 1&2 (-29% YoY), NT1 (-51% YoY) and NT2 (-26% YoY) plants. However, higher
Target price gas-input costs, affected by a 62% YoY increase in fuel oil and Brent oil prices, led to a higher selling price of
14,000
(VND, 12M) the gas-fired power group under the pass-through mechanism and maintained total revenue as well. 9M21
net profit increased by 41% YoY to VND1,842bn.
Current price • Nhon Trach 3&4 projects are on track
12,350
(10/26/21)
• On August 23, 2021, POW opened a bidding package on engineering, procurement, and construction for the
projects. One of the participating bidders was Samsung C&T and Lilama Consortium. Samsung C&T
Expected return +13% (consortium with PetroVietnam Technical Services Corporation) was also the contractor of the Thi Vai LNG
terminal project, which will supply liquefied natural gas for the Nhon Trach 3&4 plants. The validity period of
the price bid was 180 days from August 23, 2021.
NP (21F, VNDbn) 2,103
• On October 4, 2021, POW signed a letter of authorization with Vietnam Technological and Commercial Joint
Consensus NP (21F, VNDbn) N/A Stock Bank and Military Commercial Joint Stock Bank to provide capital for the projects. The banks have
enjoyed long-term cooperation with POW through previous projects the NT2, Dakdrinh, and Hua Na plants.
EPS growth (21F, %) -12
• POW is currently trading at FY22F P/E of 11x, 10% lower than its historical P/E since the listing date in FY19.
P/E (21F, x) 14
Risks
• COVID-19; joining the competitive generation market; changes in PPAs.
Shares outstanding (mn) 2,342 FY (Dec. 31) 2018 2019 2020 2021F 2022F 2023F
Free float (%) 20.0 Revenue (VNDbn) 32,662 35,374 29,732 31,902 38,251 40,324
OP (VNDbn) 3,683 3,935 3,371 2,655 3,477 3,957
OP margin (%) 11.3% 11.1% 11.3% 8.3% 9.1% 9.8%
NP (VNDbn) 1,921 2,510 2,365 2,103 2,697 3,270
52-week high (VND) 14,500 EPS (VND) 814 1,028 999 878 1,126 1,366
(%) 1M 6M 12M ROE (%) 7.0% 8.9% 7.8% 6.6% 8.1% 9.4%
Absolute 4.3 -3.6 19.7 P/E (x) 11.1x 13.6x 14.2x 11.1x 9.1x
Relative 0.4 -15.0 -28.5 P/B (x) 0.9x 1x 0.9x 0.9x 0.8x
Source: Bloomberg, Mirae Asset Vietnam Research

Hoa Sen Group JSC (HSG VN) Top pick
Robust net profit in 2021
Investment points
(Maintain) BUY
FY21 performance (financial year to September 30)
• FY21 output of steel pipe and galvanized sheet reach 2.22 MT (+39% YoY), of which galvanized sheet
Target price contributed 1.797mn MT (+51.4% YoY) and steel pipes contributed 419,167 MT (+3.2% YoY).
60,700
(VND, 12M)
• FY21 total export output reached 1.05mn MT and accounted for 47% of finished steel output of HSG. During
9M21, HSG increase its export proportion from 35% by FY20 to 52%, corresponding to an export volume of
Current price 880,442 tons in the last three quarters of FY21.
47,650
(10/26/21)
• Revenue and net profit in FY21 was at VND48,727bn (+77% YoY) and VND4,313bn (+274% YoY), corresponding
to FY21 EPS of VND8,744/share.
Expected return 27% FY22 EPS forecast at VND9,313/share, with FY22 output forecast of 2.6mn MT (+19.4% YoY)
• As China has continued to tighten steel production due to power shortages and emission controls, we expect
HSG's export segment to keep growing in FY22.
NP (21, VND bn) 4,313
• However, we believe FY22 steel ore prices will not significantly fluctuate, as supply from Australia, Brazil and
Consensus NP (21F, VND bn) n/a South Africa has returned, and China has opened its raw steel stockpiles. Therefore, it will be difficult to
EPS Growth (21, %) 274 generate significant profit from different material price as FY21.
P/E (21F, x) 6.9

• We forecast HSG FY22's output of galvanized sheet and steel pipes to reach 2.156mn MT (+20% YoY) and
482,042 tons (+15% YoY), respectively.
• FY22 revenue and net profit will reach VND52,199bn (+7% YoY) and VND4,593bn (+6% YoY), respectively.
(%) VN-Index HSG VN FY (30/09) FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22F
Free float (%) 68.9 1,020
Revenue (VNDbn) 26,149 34,441 28,035 27,543 48,727 52,199
Foreign ownership (%) 12.1 820 OP (VNDbn) 2,104 1,266 979 1,951 5,110 6,003
52-week low 13,500 OP margin (%) 8.0% 3.7% 3.5% 7.1% 10.5% 11.5%
620
NP (VNDbn) 1,332 409 361 1,150 4,313 4,593
52-week high 49,900
420 EPS (VND) 2,700 830 733 2,332 8,744 9,313
(%) 1M 6M 12M 220
ROE (%) 24.4% 7.9% 6.4% 17.5% 40.0% 31.9%
Absolute 9.2 66.5 244.3 P/E (x) 6.6x 6.7x 10.6x 9.4x 6.9x 6.5x
20
Relative 1.8 51.7 194.0 P/B (x) 1.2x 0.4x 0.6x 1.5x 2.8x 2.1x
Oct 19 Feb 20 Jun 20 Oct 20 Feb 21 Jun 21 Oct 21
Source: Company data, Bloomberg, Mirae Asset Vietnam Research

Hoa Phat Group JSC (HPG VN) Top pick
Steel giant
Investment points
(Maintain) BUY • In 3Q21, HPG recorded significant growth in revenue and net profit to VND38,900bn (+56% YoY) and
VND10,350bn (+173% YoY), respectively. Thus, 9M21 revenue and net profit reached VND105,589bn (+62% YoY)
and VND27,100bn (+204% YoY).
Target price
71,400 • 9M21 output reached 6.03 MT (41.6% YoY), of which galvanized steels and HRC contributed to 303,810 tons
(VND, 12M)
and 1.94mn MT, respectively, accounting for 37% of total output.
• Construction steel performed weakly, due to construction stagnancy caused by Covid-19 during 3Q21. 9M21
Current price output of construction steel reached 2.75 MT (+10% YoY).
56,300
(10/26/21)
• Despite the impact of Covid-19, we believe galvanized steel is currently benefiting greatly from the reopening
of countries around the world. We forecast this segment will run at full capacity in FY21, with total output of
Expected return 26.9% 400,000 MT.
• We maintain FY21 steel output forecast of 8.89 MT (+41.5% YoY), revenue of VND59,670bn (+55.3% YoY) for
construction steels, VND32,544bn for steel pipe and galvanized sheet, and VND57,857bn for HRC (+944% YoY).
NP (21F, VND bn) 36,721
• Iron ore’s price plunged from US$216/ton in April to US$133/ton in September 2021. In addition, HRC prices
Consensus NP (21F, VND bn) n/a maintained above US$900/ton and added up 1–2% to profit margin. We forecast FY21 net profit will break the
EPS Growth (21F, %) 171 record at VND36,721bn (+172% YoY). Gross and net profit margin will reach 26.8% and 20.6%, respectively, in
FY21 (compared to 21% and 15% in FY20).
P/E (21F, x) 8.7
Shares outstanding (mn) 4,473 (%) VN-Index HPG VN FY (31/12) 12/18 12/19 12/20 12/21F 12/22F 12/23F
470 Revenue (VNDbn) 55,836 63,658 90,119 178,383 187,242 196,223
Free float (%) 53.7
420
OP (VNDbn) 10,550 9,743 17,120 44,239 43,815 46,701
OP margin (%) 18.9% 15.3% 19.0% 24.8% 23.4% 23.8%
320
52-week low 22,200
270 NP (VNDbn) 8,601 7,578 13,506 36,721 37,618 39,071
52-week high 58,000 220 EPS (VND) 1,923 1,694 3,019 8,210 8,410 8,735
170 ROE (%) 21.2% 15.9% 22.9% 39.3% 30.2% 25.3%
(%) 1T 6T 12T 120
P/E (x) 13.5x 14.0x 13.8x 8.7x 8.5x 8.2x
70
Absolute 14.0 34.5 148.9 P/B (x) 1.4x 1.4x 2.3x 3.4x 3.0x 2.6x
20
Relative 6.6 19.7 98.6 Oct 19 Feb 20 Jun 20 Oct 20 Feb 21Jun 21 Oct 21 Source: Company data, Bloomberg, Mirae Asset Vietnam Research

Nam Kim Steel JSC (NKG VN) Top pick
Impressive turnaround
Investment points
(Maintain) BUY • The output of galvanized sheet and steel pipe in 9M21 of NKG reached 866,926 tons (+66% YoY). In which, the
output of galvanized sheet reached 755,141 tons (+82.9% YoY) and steel pipe reached 111,785 tons (+2.7%
YoY). We believe steel pipe products will recover from 4Q21.
Target price • Export continues to be a bright spot in NKG's business, reaching 511,929 tons and contributing 69% of NKG's
69,300
(VND, 12M) total finished steel output in 9M21. In September 2021, under strictly social distancing, export volume still
reached 82,218 tons (+169% YoY), equivalent to 76% of NKG's total September output.
Current price
55,000 • From October 2021, constructions have resumed operation, which will push 4Q21 domestic output. We
(10/26/21) forecast the output of galvanized sheet and steel pipe in 2021 to reach 995,400 tons (+70% YoY) and 184,306
tons (+30% YoY), respectively. FY21 revenue will be VND27,963bn (+141% YoY) and net profit will make a
record of VND2,728bn (+825% YoY).
Expected return +26%
• In 2022, NKG is expected to add 200,000 tons of bleaching capacity, thanks to the expansion of the factory in
Binh Duong province. In June 2021, NKG completely purchased a 5 ha factory at Binh Duong province by
NP (21F, VND bn) 2,728 acquiring Dea Myung Company at a price of US$5.5mn, in preparation for the expansion of the existing
bleaching line. We estimate an upgrading cost of around US$5mn for 200,000 tons of steel, leading to a
Consensus NP (21F, VND bn) n/a
relatively low investment of VND1.1bn/ton.
P/E (21F, x) 5.5
Shares outstanding (mn) 218 (%) VN-Index NKG VN FY (31/12) 12/17 12/18 12/19 12/20 12/21F 12/22F
1,220 Revenue (VNDbn) 12,619 14,812 12,177 11,560 27,963 28,144
Free float (%) 66.3
1,020 OP (VNDbn) 1,024 390 63 509 3,377 2,416
820
OP margin (%) 8.1% 2.6% 0.5% 4.4% 12.1% 8.6%
52-week low 6,700
NP (VNDbn) 708 57 47 295 2,728 1,982
620
52-week high 56,500 EPS (VND) 3,274 265 219 1,366 12,622 9,172
420
ROE (%) 24.1% 1.9% 1.6% 9.3% 46.6% 26.2%
(%) 1M 6M 12M
220
P/E (x) 5.0x 25.1x 26.5x 8.3x 5.5x 7.6x
Absolute 31.4 154.8 650.2
20 P/B (x) 1.3x 0.5x 0.5x 0.9x 2.7x 2.1x
Relative 24.0 140.0 599.8 Oct 19Feb 20Jun 20Oct 20Feb 21Jun 21Oct 21
Source: Company data, Bloomberg, Mirae Asset Vietnam Research

Appendix – Earnings forecast
Net profit forecast (VNDbn)
Stock Industry 3Q20 3Q21 YoY 4Q20 4Q21F YoY FY20 FY21F YoY
ACB Banks 2,075 2,103 1% 2,550 2,811 10% 7,683 9,985 30%
BID Banks 2,108 2,048 -3% 1,637 1,807 21% 6,997 10, 162 45%
CTG Banks 2,342 2,466 5% 5,384 4,107 -24% 13,757 15,283 11%
HDB Banks 1,179 1,513 28% 1,146 1,270 11% 4,647 6,134 32%
TCB Banks 3,099 4,338 40% 3,953 3,825 -3% 12,325 17,271 40%
VCB Banks 3,991 4,594 15% 5,668 5,094 -10% 18,451 20,547 11%
VIB Banks 1,335 1,077 -19% 1,421 1,326 -7% 4,642 5,567 20%
VPB Banks 2,252 2,161 -4% 2,897 4,088 41% 10,414 13,467 29%
SHB Banks 757 1,492 97% 642 1,818 183% 2,607 5,785 122%
MSN F&B 852 1,148 35% 265 1,559 488% 1,234 3,685 199%
SAB F&B 1,393 444 -68% 1,466 945 -36% 4,724 3,309 -30%

VNM F&B 3,077 2,925 -5% 2,185 2,462 13% 11,099 10,798 -3%
NAF F&B 14 21 52% 12 21 71% 61 81 33%
PNJ Luxury goods 202 (160) -179% 427 332 -22% 1,069 909 -15%
GAS Oil & Gas 2,023 2,417 19% 1,682 2,566 53% 7,854 9,275 18%
PLX Oil & Gas 853 76 -91% 933 1,086 16% 988 3,229 227%
DIG Real estate 69 43 -38% 506 960 90% 711 1,097 54%
NLG Real estate 29 297 924% 627 656 5% 835 1,365 63%
SZC Real estate 37 67 81% 24 19 -21% 186 277 49%
PDR Real estate 439 608 38% 502 949 89% 1,220 2,061 69%
IJC Real estate 64 83 30% 145 105 -28% 370 657 78%
MWG Retail 951 785 -17% 942 1,161 23% 3,920 4,497 15%

HPG Steel 3,785 10,350 173% 4,661 9,620 106% 13,506 36,721 172%
HSG
Steel 450 940 109% 1,153 4,313 274%
(*)
NKG Steel 83 607 635% 154 954 519% 295 2,728 825%
FPT IT 929 1,125 21% 983 1,240 26% 3,538 4,271 21%
STK Textile 20 62 210% 68 40 -42% 143 243 69%
DRC Rubber 62 34 -45% 110 100 -9% 256 304 18%
NT2 Utilities (6) 273 4696% 203 150 -26% 625 563 -10%
PC1 Utilities 159 144 -9% 132 120 -9% 513 670 31%
POW Utilities 105 483 360% 892 236 -73% 2,365 2,103 -11%
PPC Utilities 90 (35) -139% 502 180 -64% 1,011 403 -60%
REE Utilities 347 263 -24% 651 663 2% 1,628 1,725 6%
DVP Seaport 52 86 65% 46 64 38% 238 282 18%
Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Vietnam Research (* HSG: FY to September 30)

APPENDIX 1
Stock Ratings Industry Ratings
Buy : Relative performance of 20% or greater Overweight : Fundamentals are favorable or improving
Trading Buy : Relative performance of 10% or greater, but with volatility Neutral : Fundamentals are steady without any material changes
Hold : Relative performance of -10% and 10% Underweight : Fundamentals are unfavorable or worsening
Sell : Relative performance of -10%
Ratings and Target Price History (Share price (─), Target price (▬), Not covered (■), Buy (▲), Trading Buy (■), Hold (●), Sell (◆))
* Our investment rating is a guide to the relative return of the stock versus the market over the next 12 months.
* Although it is not part of the official ratings at Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) LLC, we may call a trading opportunity in case there is a technical or short-term material development.
* The target price was determined by the research analyst through valuation methods discussed in this report, in part based on the analyst’s estimate of future earnings.
* The achievement of the target price may be impeded by risks related to the subject securities and companies, as well as general market and economic conditions.
Analyst Certification
The research analysts who prepared this report (the “Analysts”) are subject to Vietnamese securities regulations. They are neither registered as research analysts in any other
jurisdiction nor subject to the laws and regulations thereof. Opinions expressed in this publication about the subject securities and companies accurately reflect the personal
views of the Analysts primarily responsible for this report. Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) LLC (MAS) policy prohibits its Analysts and members of their households from
owning securities of any company in the Analyst’s area of coverage, and the Analysts do not serve as an officer, director or advisory board member of the subject companies.
Except as otherwise specified herein, the Analysts have not received any compensation or any other benefits from the subject companies in the past 12 months and have not
been promised the same in connection with this report. No part of the compensation of the Analysts was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific
recommendations or views contained in this report but, like all employees of MAS, the Analysts receive compensation that is determined by overall firm profitability, which
includes revenues from, among other business units, the institutional equities, investment banking, proprietary trading and private client division. At the time of publication of
this report, the Analysts do not know or have reason to know of any actual, material conflict of interest of the Analyst or MAS except as otherwise stated herein.
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Exchanges. Information and opinions contained herein have been compiled in good faith and from sources believed to be reliable, but such information has not been
independently verified and MAS makes no guarantee, representation or warranty, express or implied, as to the fairness, accuracy, completeness or correctness of the
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Vietnam Economy and Stock Market: Post-Lockdown Acceleration

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Vietnam Economy and Stock Market: Post-Lockdown Acceleration

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Strategy report | Nov 2021

VIETNAM ECONOMY AND STOCK MARKET

I. Vietnam economy 10M21 review and outlook 3

2 | Vietnam focus: Strategy Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research

Source: GSO, Bloomberg, Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research compilation.

4 | Vietnam focus: Strategy Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research

5 | Vietnam focus: Strategy Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research

One-time support for living expenses for low-income workers

Support digital transformation and innovative start-ups

End-2021 and 1H22: investment preparation, site clearance, compensation, resettlement

Source: Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research compilation

6 | Vietnam focus: Strategy Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research

Monthly IIP Manufacturing IIP in 10M21

Basic metals 25.1

Source: GSO, Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research compilation

7 | Vietnam focus: Strategy Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research

Growth rate of some key products of industrial production in 10M21

Source: GSO, Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research compilation

8 | Vietnam focus: Strategy Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research

(Point) PMI 3-month average PMI

Source: Bloomberg, Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research compilation

9 | Vietnam focus: Strategy Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research

Trade balance (L) Exports ( R) (% YoY) Exports Imports

10 | Vietnam focus: Strategy Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research

Growth of Vietnam’s monthly exports by country

Source: GSO, Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research compilation

11 | Vietnam focus: Strategy Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research

(VNDtr) 10M21 disbursement

12 | Vietnam focus: Strategy Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research

Registered FDI (L)

13 | Vietnam focus: Strategy Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research

Accommodation and food service 11.6%

Source: MPI, Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research compilation

14 | Vietnam focus: Strategy Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research

Covid-19 "vaccine passport"

15 | Vietnam focus: Strategy Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research

(% YoY) Registered capital The number of labor

16 | Vietnam focus: Strategy Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research

VND/US$ exchange rate VND appreciates relative to US$ in 10M21

(VND) CNY VND PHP

Source: Bloomberg, as of 10/30/2021

17 | Vietnam focus: Strategy Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research

Inflation CPI by industry (%)

(% YoY) Inflation Core inflation 10M21 avg.

3.0 Garment, Footwear and Hats 0.88 0.59 0.13 0.85

Culture, Entertainment and Tourism -0.49 -0.33 0.04 -1.04

18 | Vietnam focus: Strategy Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research

19 | Vietnam focus: Strategy Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research

20 | Vietnam focus: Strategy Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research

Global performance monitor: Monthly change (% MoM)

Source: Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research, Bloomberg

21 | Vietnam focus: Strategy Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research

Source: Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research, Bloomberg

22 | Vietnam focus: Strategy Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research

23 | Vietnam focus: Strategy Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research

Top 20 leading contributors Top 20 lagging contributors

Price change Index impact Price change Index impact