2022 Outlook Strategy EN - Ed - S

Strategy report | Dec 2021
VIETNAM ECONOMY AND STOCK MARKET

2022 outlook: Catch up with opportunities
Research team
Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam)
PLEASE SEE ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES & DISCLAIMERS IN APPENDIX 1 AT THE END OF REPORT.
Contents
I. Vietnam economy 2021 review and 2022 outlook 3

II. Vietnam stock market 2021 review 26
III.Vietnam stock market 2022 prospects 35
IV. Sector outlook and stock recommendations 46
2 | Vietnam focus: Strategy Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research

I. Vietnam economy 2021 review and 2022 outlook
❑ After witnessing an impressive recovery in 1H21, the fourth wave of Covid-19 caused
Vietnam's 3Q21 economy to record the steepest decline since Vietnam’s GDP figures were
first calculated and published. Vietnam has promptly switched from a “Zero Covid”
strategy to a ”Living With Covid" strategy, gradually easing social distancing and opening
up the economy, promptly implementing Resolution 128/NQ-CP dated October 11, 2021
on safe, flexible adaptation and effective containment of Covid-19, promoting
vaccinations, and promulgating many policies to support the economy. As a result, the
economy experienced positive changes in October and November.
▪ Industrial production returned to positive growth in November, after three
consecutive months of decline
▪ The trade balance turned to surplus for three consecutive months, thanks to the
improvement in exports’ growth rate
▪ Disbursement of public investment capital has been accelerated
▪ Registered FDI capital maintained a double-digit growth rate
▪ Retail sales narrowed their decline compared with the previous months
▪ The number of newly-established enterprises and those returning to operation rose
compared with October
❑ In addition, inflation and exchange rates have remained stable in 11M21, which is an
important foundation in maintaining the economic recovery.

I. Vietnam economy 2021 review and 2022 outlook (cont’d.)
❑ The speed at which the economy reopens and returns to a new normal depends greatly on
the speed of Covid-19 vaccinations and their ability to safely adapt to new variants. We believe
a vaccination rate for Vietnam of over 70% by early 2022 is completely feasible.
❑ We maintain our forecast for Vietnam's GDP to grow at 4% in 4Q21 and 2.3% in 2021, in a
scenario where the economy gradually accelerates from mid-October, driven by public
investment and FDI inflows. We believe the two main growth drivers should be boosted when
the economy opens up.
❑ In 2022, when the vaccination rate is expected to exceed 70%, we estimate that Vietnam's
2022 GDP could attain a range of between 5.7%−6.2% in the base-case scenario, where
Vietnam successfully reopens the economy. Growth engines for Vietnam’s economy in 2022
include: 1) an expected boost to FDI inflows, as Vietnam remains an attractive destination for
the global wave of FDI; 2) the government’s promotion of public investment; and 3) exports
regaining momentum, thanks to improvement in domestic production and recovery in
external demand. In addition, implementing policies to support the economy, maintaining
low lending interest rates, stabilizing the macroeconomy, and promoting digital
transformation of governments and businesses play an important role in the economic
recovery.
❑ Key obstacles to Vietnam’s economic recovery to watch for include: 1) a possible increase in
the number of community infections following the easing of social distancing measures, as
well as a resurgence of the Covid-19 pandemic on a global scale; 2) a slower-than-expected
pace of Covid-19 vaccinations in Vietnam; and 3) an extended period until Travel and Aviation
return to pre-pandemic levels, resulting in consumption acting as a drag on the overall
growth momentum of the economy.
Vietnam macroeconomic dashboard
Graph
Indicators Jan-21 Feb-21 Mar-21 Apr-21 May-21 Jun-21 Jul-21 Aug-21 Sep-21 Oct-21 Nov-21
(From Jan-2020 to Nov-2021)
COVID-19 trackers
Global new COVID-19 cases per million 2,498 1,431 1,888 2,887 2,480 1,456 1,989 2,444 2,020 1,553 1,766
Total global vaccination per hundred 1.28 3.28 7.71 14.6 24.91 39.54 52.17 67.22 79.74 88.49 100.28
New COVID-19 cases per million in Vietnam 3.6 6.5 1.6 3.3 46.3 98.8 1,354 3,050 3,348 1,218 2,814
Total vaccination per hundred in Vietnam 0.05 0.53 1.13 3.88 5.68 17.51 43.69 78.58 115.05
Vietnam's stringency index 58.5 70.9 61.6 54.0 73.7 77.3 78.3 76.3 72.7 67.1 67.2
Economic indicators
Index of Industrial production (monthly, % YoY) 22.5 -7.2 3.6 24.1 11.8 6.8 2.2 -7.4 -5.5 -1.8 5.6
PMI (point) 51.3 51.6 53.6 54.7 53.1 44.1 45.1 40.2 40.2 52.1 52.2
Retail sales growth (cumulative, % YoY) 6.4 5.5 5.1 10.0 7.6 4.9 0.7 -4.7 -7.1 -8.6 -8.7
International traveller growth (monthly, % YoY) -98.0 -97.0 -96.0 -25.8 -40.6 -18.0 -46.4 -43.0 -31.0 -28.8 -15.2
FDI disbursement (monthly, % YoY) -5.6 2.0 5.1 6.8 6.7 6.8 3.8 2.0 -3.5 -4.1 -4.2
FDI registration (monthly, % YoY) -62.9 -12.9 40.9 13.7 16.4 12.4 3.5 11.6 22.3 15.8 11.0
Export growth (cumulative, % YoY) 55.8 24.7 24.0 29.8 30.9 28.9 26.4 22.0 18.9 16.6 17.5
Import growth (cumulative, % YoY) 42.3 26.4 26.9 32.3 36.1 35.8 36.1 34.0 30.9 28.2 27.5
Trade balance (monthly, US$bn) 2.1 -0.5 1.2 -1.2 -2.1 -0.5 -1.2 -0.1 0.4 2.7 0.1
CPI (% YoY) -0.97 0.70 1.16 2.70 2.90 2.41 2.64 2.82 2.06 1.77 2.10
Credit growth (% YoY) 12.9 12.7 14.0 15.2 15.4 15.2 15.3 15.0 14.1 14.2 14.6
M2 growth (% YoY) 13.4 14.6 14.8 15.6 14.9 13.8 13.7 12.7 12.1 12.5 12
VND/US$ (% MoM) -0.2 -0.1 0.2 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.19 -0.71 -0.1 -0.04 -0.1
Stock market
VNIndex return (% MoM) -4.3 10.6 2.0 4.0 7.2 6.1 -7.0 1.6 0.8 7.6 2.4
VN-Index's 20-day volatility 41.0 46.4 12.3 21.2 12.8 18.4 33.5 19.1 11.3 11.1 11.9
Source: GSO, Bloomberg, Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research compilation.

Note: Credit and M2 growth in October and November are estimated by MAS Vietnam Research.
Note: Red spots in graphs indicate negative data.

I.1 – Economic growth
3Q21 Vietnam's • After witnessing an impressive recovery in 1H21, the fourth wave of Covid-19 caused Vietnam's 3Q21 economy
to record the steepest decline (-6.17% YoY) since Vietnam’s GDP figures were first calculated and published, due
economy was heavily
to strict social distancing measures across many provinces and cities.
affected by Covid-19 • In 9M21, Vietnam's GDP came in at 1.42% YoY, with Agriculture, Forestry, and Fisheries (+2.7% YoY) and Industry
and Construction (+3.6% YoY) offsetting the drop in Services (-0.7% YoY).
Quarterly GDP by expenditure approach Quarterly GDP by industry GDP growth of Asian countries
GDP China Hong Kong

GDP
Final consumption India Indonesia
(% YoY) (% YoY) Agriculture, forestry, and fishery
Accumulated assets Malaysia Philippines
Exports Manufacturing and Construction (% YoY) South Korea Taiwan
35.0
Imports Services Thailand Vietnam
30.0 15.0 20
25.0 15
10.0
20.0 10
15.0 5.0 5
10.0 0
0.0
5.0 -5
0.0 -5.0 -10
-5.0 -15
-10.0
-20
-10.0
-15.0 -25
-15.0
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 2020 2020 2020 2020 2021 2021 2021
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3
2018 2019 2020 2021 2018 2019 2020 2021
Source: GSO, Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research compilation Source: Bloomberg, Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research compilation

I.2 – Covid-19 situation after easing of social distancing measures
• The positive point is that, thanks to the promotion of Covid-19 vaccinations, Vietnam’s two-dose
Thanks to the promotion
vaccination rate has risen from 25% at end-October to 52% at end-November, which is higher than our
of vaccinations, Vietnam optimistic scenario of a 46% fully-vaccinated rate by end-November. Thus, we believe that Vietnam’s
is on par with countries Covid-19 vaccination rate exceeding 70% by early-2022 is completely feasible.
with high vaccination • However, with the easing of social distancing and the economy gradually entering a "new normal", the
number of new infections increased sharply in November, which is worrying. The daily average number
rates
of new infections jumped to 10,565 in November from the low of 4,125 cases in October. In addition, the
Omicron variant appeared at the end of November in South Africa, causing concerns in countries around
the world.
Vietnam has accelerated Covid-19 vaccination rates Vietnam is on par with countries with high vaccination rates
New cases per million (L) People vaccinated per hundred People fully vaccinated per hundred
(%)
(# cases) People vaccinated per hundred (R) (%) 100
People fully vaccinated per hundred (R)
90
200 80
80
180 70 70
160 60
60
140 50
50 40
120
30
100 40
20
80 30 10
60 0
20
40
20 10
0 0
Jun 21 Jul 21 Aug 21 Sep 21 Oct 21 Nov 21
Source: Our World in Data, Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research compilation Source: Our World in Data, Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research compilation

I.3 – GDP growth forecast update
• We maintain our forecast for Vietnam's GDP to grow at 4% in 4Q21 and 2.3% in 2021, in a scenario where the
We forecast Vietnam’s economy gradually accelerates from mid-October, driven by public investment and FDI inflows. We believe the two
GDP growth to reach main growth drivers should be boosted when the economy opens up.
2.3% in 2021 and • In 2022, when we estimate that Vietnam’s vaccination rate will exceed 70%, Vietnam's 2022 GDP could reach a
range of between 5.7%−6.2% in the base-case scenario, where Vietnam successfully reopens the economy. Growth
5.7%−6.2% in 2022
engines for Vietnam’s economy in 2022 include: 1) an expected boost to FDI inflows, as Vietnam remains an
attractive destination for the global wave of FDI; 2) the government’s promotion of public investment; and 3)
exports regaining momentum, thanks to improvement in domestic production and recovery in external demand.
In addition, implementing policies to support the economy, maintaining low lending interest rates, stabilizing the
macroeconomy, and promoting digital transformation of governments and businesses play an important role in
the economic recovery.
• Key risks to watch: 1) a possible increase in the number of community infections following the easing of social
distancing measures, as well as a resurgence of the Covid-19 pandemic on a global scale; 2) a slower-than-
expected pace of Covid-19 vaccinations for Vietnam; and 3) an extended period until Travel and Aviation return to
pre-pandemic levels, resulting in consumption acting as a drag on the overall growth momentum of the economy.
Updated Vietnam GDP forecast of some organizations GDP growth forecast in 2021 and 2022
(% 2021f 2022f 2021f consensus 2022f consensus

10%
8%
Scenario 4Q21 2021 2022
7.0%
6%
4%
Base case 4.0% 2.3% 5.7%
2% 2.4%
0%
Worst case 2.7% 1.8% 4.0%
Best case 4.5% 2.4% 6.2%
Source: Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research forecast

Source: Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research compilation

I.4 – Industrial production
❑ In November, industrial production returned to positive growth after three months of declines; specifically, the
Industrial production
index of industrial production (IIP) increased by 5.6% YoY in November, when businesses restored production,
returned to positive accompanied by the safe, flexible adaptation and effective containment of the Covid-19 pandemic, according to
growth in November Resolution 128/NQ-CP, dated October 11, 2021. All four pillars of industrial production recovered, namely
Manufacturing and Processing (+6.4% YoY), Mining (+2.2% YoY), Electricity Production and Distribution (+2.2%
after three consecutive
YoY), Water Supply and Treatment of Waste and Wastewater (+1.2% YoY) in November.
months of declines
❑ In 11M21, IIP increased by 3.6% YoY (versus +3% YoY in 11M20).
❑ In 11M21, a number of key industrial products soared from a year earlier, namely phone components (+33.8%
YoY), rolled steel (+35.4% YoY), petroleum (+13.3% YoY), liquefied petroleum gas (+10.6% YoY), automobiles
(+9% YoY), crude iron and steel (+10.7% YoY), powdered milk (+12.6% YoY), animal feed (+9.5% YoY), leather
footwear (+9% YoY), and NPK fertilizer (+7.5% YoY).
Monthly IIP Manufacturing IIP in 11M21
IIP Manufacturing and processing IIP Basic metals 23.4

(% YoY)
Motor vehicles 10.7
35 Seasonal effects Coke, refined petroleum products 9.0
Textiles 8.3
30
Covid-19 wave Clothes 6.3
25 Computer, electronic, optical products 6.2
Manufacturing 4.8
20 Leather and related products 4.4
15 Manufacture of wood 3.5
Machinery and equipment 2.8
10 Paper and paper products 2.7
Food products 1.7
5
Furniture 1.3
0 Tobacco -0.1
Rubber and plastic products -0.4
-5
Chemicals and chemical products -0.8
-10 Printing, recorded media reproduction -1.7
Electrical equipment -2.4
-15 Beverages -3.9
Dec 19
Dec 20
Aug 19
Sep 19
Nov 19
Aug 20
Sep 20
Nov 20
Aug 21
Sep 21
Nov 21
Apr 19
Jun 19
Apr 20
Jun 20
Apr 21
Jun 21
Feb 19
Feb 20
Feb 21
Oct 19
Oct 20
Oct 21
Mar 19
May 19
Mar 20
May 20
Mar 21
May 21
Jan 19
Jul 19
Jan 20
Jul 20
Jan 21
Jul 21
Pharmaceuticals -18.2 (% YoY)
Source: GSO, Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research compilation

I.4 – Industrial production (cont’d.)
• Vietnam’s PMI rebounded above the 50-point threshold in October (52.1 points) and November (52.2 points),
Industrial production
after a four-month sequence of declines. Companies have restarted operations and increased production output
expected to rebound to meet the increasing number of new orders amid easing of social distancing measures and improving demand.
• Many provinces and cities have entered a new normal, while businesses and factories have reopened at
70%−95% capacity, alongside continued focus on the vaccination campaign. Thus, we believe that factories and
businesses will return to business at full capacity and ramp up their production, as both domestic demand and
Vietnam's export markets increase in 2022.
• Risks: There is a possibility of material supply chain disruption and labor shortages if the Covid-19 period is
extended.
IIP growth rate by sector in the period 2020−11M21
01- 02- 03- 04- 05- 06- 07- 08- 09- 10- 11- 12- 01- 02- 03- 04- 05- 06- 07- 08- 09- 10- 11-
2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2021 2021 2021 2021 2021 2021 2021 2021 2021 2021 2021
IIP -8.0 22.3 4.9 -9.4 -0.4 7.2 1.8 -0.6 4.8 3.9 6.0 9.5 22.5 -7.2 3.6 24.1 11.8 6.8 2.2 -7.4 -5.5 -1.8 5.6
Mining and quarrying -14.5 11.4 -10.1 -10.5 -11.2 -8.4 -3.9 -10.6 -5.7 -11.4 -11.5 -10.4 2.0 -23.0 -8.3 1.8 -5.9 -4.9 -8.0 -2.4 -7.1 -8.2 2.2
Manufacturing and
-7.8 24.6 7.3 -9.6 1.4 10.3 2.1 0.2 5.4 5.9 8.4 13.1 27.2 -5.8 5.3 29.1 14.4 8.1 2.9 -9.2 -4.9 -0.8 6.4
Processing
Electricity Production
-3.6 20.0 6.1 -8.6 -1.0 3.2 5.2 1.4 8.4 2.0 3.5 2.1 11.0 -2.3 3.5 16.4 12.7 8.2 6.7 1.5 -9.7 -4.8 2.2
and Distribution
Water Supply and

Treatment of Waste 1.6 7.9 3.0 -0.2 2.5 3.9 2.2 3.2 6.7 7.1 4.4 8.0 9.6 0.1 5.8 11.1 4.1 6.0 4.3 0.2 -2.0 -0.5 1.2
and Wastewater

I.4 – Industrial production (cont’d.)
Vietnam’s PMI rebounded above the 50-point threshold in October and November
(Point) PMI 3-month average PMI

60
55
50
45
40
35
30
Nov 11 May 12 Nov 12 May 13 Nov 13 May 14 Nov 14 May 15 Nov 15 May 16 Nov 16 May 17 Nov 17 May 18 Nov 18 May 19 Nov 19 May 20 Nov 20 May 21 Nov 21
Manufacturing PMI
Region/Country Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20 Oct-20 Nov-20 Dec-20 Jan-21 Feb-21 Mar-21 Apr-21 May-21 Jun-21 Jul-21 Aug-21 Sep-21 Oct-21 Nov-21
Global 39.6 42.4 48.0 50.6 51.8 52.4 53.1 53.8 53.8 53.6 53.9 55.0 55.8 56.0 55.5 55.5 54.1 54.1 54.3 54.3
Euro Area 33.4 39.4 47.4 51.8 51.7 53.7 54.8 53.8 55.2 54.8 57.9 62.5 62.9 63.1 63.4 62.6 61.4 58.6 58.3 58.6
US 36.1 39.8 49.8 50.9 53.1 53.2 53.4 56.7 57.1 59.2 58.6 59.1 60.5 62.1 62.1 63.1 61.1 60.7 58.4 59.1
UK 32.6 40.7 50.1 53.3 55.2 54.1 53.7 55.6 57.5 54.1 55.1 58.9 60.7 65.6 63.9 60.4 60.3 57.1 57.8 58.2
Emerging Markets 42.7 45.4 49.6 51.4 52.5 52.8 53.4 53.9 52.8 52.1 51.5 51.3 52.2 52.0 51.3 51.3 49.6 49.6 51.6 51.6
China 49.4 50.7 51.2 52.8 53.1 53.0 53.6 54.9 53.0 51.5 50.9 50.6 51.9 52.0 51.3 50.3 49.2 50.0 50.6 49.9
Japan 41.9 38.4 40.1 45.2 47.2 47.7 48.7 49.0 50.0 49.8 51.4 52.7 53.6 53.0 52.4 53.0 52.7 51.5 53.2 54.5
South Korea 41.6 41.3 43.4 46.9 48.5 49.8 51.2 52.9 52.9 53.2 55.3 55.3 54.6 53.7 53.9 53.0 51.2 52.4 50.2 50.9
Vietnam 32.7 42.7 51.1 47.6 45.7 52.2 51.8 49.9 51.7 51.3 51.6 53.6 54.7 53.1 44.1 45.1 40.2 40.2 52.1 52.2
ASEAN 30.7 35.5 43.7 46.5 49.0 48.3 48.6 50.0 50.8 51.4 49.7 50.8 51.9 51.8 49.0 44.6 44.5 50.0 53.6 52.3
Source: Bloomberg, Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research compilation

I.5 – Exports and imports
❑ Since the fourth wave of Covid-19 in April 2021, Vietnam experienced five consecutive months of trade deficit (from
Exports expected to March to August 2021) because export growth is much slower than import growth; however, the deficit narrowed
regain growth in August. The trade balance turned to a surplus for three consecutive months since September, thanks to the
gradual recovery of exports. In 11M21, exports and imports still maintained double-digit growth rates, estimated at
momentum when
US$299.67bn (+17.5% YoY) and US$299.45bn (+27.5% YoY), respectively, and the trade balance turned to an
production and estimated surplus of US$225mn.
business activities ❑ The driving forces for export growth going forward include: 1) businesses resuming operations, factories
reopening and operating capacity gradually returning to normal; 2) external demand gradually improving, thanks
recover
to the global deployment of Covid-19 vaccines; and 3) Vietnam's deepening participation in the global supply chain,
taking advantage of key trade agreements.
Exports, imports, and trade balance Growth rates of exports and imports Trade balance by country
Trade balance (L) (US$bn) 2017 2018 2019 2020 11M21

(US$mn) (US$mn) (% YoY) Exports Imports
Exports ( R) 80
6,000 35,000 60
Imports ( R)
5,000 50 60
30,000
4,000
40
25,000 40
3,000
30
2,000 20,000 20
20
1,000 15,000
10 0
0
10,000
0 -20
-1,000
5,000 -10
-2,000
-40
-3,000 0 -20
Dec 20
Aug 20
Sep 20
Nov 20
Aug 21
Sep 21
Nov 21
Apr 20
Jun 20
Apr 21
Jun 21
Feb 20
Feb 21
Oct 20
Oct 21
Mar 20
May 20
Mar 21
May 21
Jan 20
Jul 20
Jan 21
Jul 21
Dec 20
Aug 20
Sep 20
Nov 20
Aug 21
Sep 21
Nov 21
Apr 20
Jun 20
Oct 20
Apr 21
Jun 21
Oct 21
Feb 20
Feb 21
Mar 20
May 20
Mar 21
May 21
Jan 20
Jul 20
Jan 21
Jul 21
-60
US China EU ASEAN Japan South
Korea
Source: GSO, Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research compilation Source: GSO, Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research compilation

I.5 – Exports and imports (cont’d.)
Growth of Vietnam’s monthly exports by product
Growth (% YoY)
Country Proportion (11M21)
Jan-21 Feb-21 Mar-21 Apr-21 May-21 Jun-21 Jul-21 Aug-21 Sep-21 Oct-21 Nov-21
US 28 72 3 48 83 52 27 12 3 -2 -19 25
China 17 70 22 19 9 23 15 15 -1 12 5 19
EU 12 51 -12 10 49 21 4 11 0 -12 -12 43
ASEAN 9 40 -24 12 73 49 44 20 7 7 20 44
South Korea 7 33 -16 14 29 13 7 7 -5 23 11 57
Japan 6 12 -22 2 19 19 22 14 4 -22 -19 9
Growth of Vietnam’s monthly exports by country
Growth (% YoY)
Products Proportion (11M21)
Jan-21 Feb-21 Mar-21 Apr-21 May-21 Jun-21 Jul-21 Aug-21 Sep-21 Oct-21 Nov-21
Electronic goods, computers, and their parts 15 46 23 27 27 14 5 -9 1 7 8 2
Phones and their parts 17 126 -24 -14 52 22 -10 10 4 9 -4 31
Machinery, instrument, accessory 11 119 43 78 83 47 25 28 16 8 14 41
Textiles and garments 10 8 -18 17 52 34 18 3 -12 -21 -5 35
Shoes and sandals 5 33 -11 23 43 41 38 3 -40 -46 -46 -2
Wood and products 4 61 25 52 96 82 65 21 -30 -38 -40 8
Iron, steel 4 134 37 96 137 230 119 142 152 152 127 127
Seafood 3 24 -21 17 22 19 19 8 -27 -25 -23 45

I.5 – Exports and imports (cont’d.)
Vietnam is a member of many free trade agreements (FTAs)
FTA Status Members
Active FTAs
AFTA Came into effect in 1993 ASEAN
ACFTA Came into effect in 2005 ASEAN, China
AKFTA Came into effect in 2007 ASEAN, South Korea
AJCEP Came into effect in 2008 ASEAN, Japan
VJEPA Came into effect in 2009 Vietnam, Japan
AIFTA Came into effect in 2010 ASEAN, India
AANZFTA Came into effect in 2010 ASEAN, Australia, New Zealand
VCFTA Came into effect in 2014 Vietnam, Chile
VKFTA Came into effect in 2015 Vietnam, South Korea
VN – EAEU FTA Came into effect in 2016 Vietnam, Russia, Belarus, Amenia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan
Came into effect on December 30, 2018, came into Vietnam, Canada, Mexico, Peru, Chile, New Zealand,
CPTPP
effect in Vietnam on January 14, 2019 Australia, Japan, Singapore, Brunei, Malaysia
Came into effect in Hong Kong (China), Laos, Myanmar,

AHKFTA ASEAN, Hong Kong (China)
Thailand, Singapore, and Vietnam on June 11, 2019
EVFTA Came into effect on August 1, 2020 Vietnam, EU (27 members)
UKVFTA Came into effect on May 1, 2021 Vietnam, UK
FTA not yet ratified, coming into effect soon

RCEP Signed on November 15, 2020 ASEAN, China, South Korea, Japan, Australia, New Zealand
FTA negotiations
Vietnam – EFTA FTA Negotiations began in May 2012 Vietnam, EFTA (Switzerland, Norway, Iceland, Liechtenstein)
Vietnam – Israel FTA Negotiations began in December 2015 Vietnam, Israel
Source: VCCI

I.6 – Public investment
Disbursement of public ❑ Amid easing of social distancing measures, progress in the implementation of public investment
projects was accelerated in October and November. Particularly, investment capital from the State
investment accelerated
budget was estimated at VND41.7tr (+18.6% MoM; -17.4% YoY) in October, and VND48.5tr (+14.7% MoM;
compared with the previous -12.9% YoY) in November. In 11M21, investment capital from the State budget reached VND367.7tr (-
month 8.7% YoY), equaling 73.8% of the year plan.
❑ We believe that public investment will become the key engine of economic recovery in 2021 and
subsequent years, as it may take more time for other economic growth drivers that are negatively
impacted by the fourth wave of Covid to recover.
Investment capital from the State budget is expected to recover in 2022−2024 Investment capital from the State budget in 11M21
(VNDtr) 11M21 disbursement

Investment capital from the State budget (% YoY)
(VNDtr) Monthly investment capital from the State budget (% YoY)
Growth
YoY growth (accumulative)
700 30 60 30
25 25
600 50
20 20
500
15 40 15
400 10 10
30
300 5 5
0 20 0
200
-5 -5
100 10
-10 -10
0 -15 0 -15
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E Jan 21 Feb 21 Mar 21 Apr 21 May 21 Jun 21 Jul 21 Aug 21 Sep 21 Oct 21 Nov 21
Source: The Ministry of Finance, GSO, Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research compilation Source: GSO, Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research compilation

I.6 – Public investment (cont’d.)
Some large public investment projects in 2020−2025 Directives/decisions to promote public investment
Total Directives/decisions Content

Completion
Project investment Starting time
time Decision No. 1454/QD- Road network development planning period
(VNDbn)
TTg 2021–2030, vision to 2050
11 component projects of The goal is to strive for the disbursement rate of
101,218 2020 2025
North – South Highway state budget investment capital in 2021 to reach
Resolution 63/NQ-CP
dated June 29, 2021 95−100% of the plan assigned by the Prime
Ho Chi Minh Ring Road
19,871 2020 2025 Minister
No.3
Speeding up the progress and improving the
Long Thanh International Directive No. 13/CT-
114,451 2021 2025 quality of construction of the medium-term Public
Airport TTg
Investment Plan 2021–2025
Metro 2 (Ben Thanh - Tham Targets: Average total investment capital of
47,800 2021 2026
Luong)
Vietnam’s society in the period 2021−2025 of
TP.HCM - Thu Dau Mot - Resolution No. about 32−34% of GDP; average proportion of
24,150 2021 2025
Chon Thanh Highway 29/2021/QH15 on the public investment capital in 5 years of about
medium-term Public 16−17% of the total investment capital of the
Ho Chi Minh – Moc Bai
10,668 2021 2026 Investment Plan for whole society; average disbursement rate of
Expressway
the 2021−2025 period public investment capital in the 2021−2025 period
Phan Thiet Airport 10,000 2021 2022 of over 90% of the plan assigned by the National
Assembly.

I.7 – FDI
❑ In 11M21, disbursed FDI was estimated at US$17.1bn (-4.2% YoY), down from the same period last year, due to the closure
Registered FDI of factories and labor shortages amid the Covid-19 pandemic. Meanwhile, registered FDI in 11M21 has kept its year-over-
year growth (estimated at US$20.1bn; +11% YoY). Of these, newly-registered FDI capital exceeded US$14bn (+3.7% YoY),
maintained
with 1,577 projects (-31.8% YoY). Meanwhile, there were 877 projects registered to adjust investment capital (-16.6% YoY),
double-digit and additionally-registered capital went up to US$8bn (+26.7% YoY).
growth ❑ With promotion of Covid-19 vaccinations and policies to support and guide businesses to adapt to the “new normal”,
production activities are expected to gradually recover. In addition, when Vietnam achieves herd immunity and travel
between countries gradually returns to normal, it will create favorable conditions for foreign investors to survey and carry
out investment procedures in Vietnam. Therefore, realized FDI is expected to improve going forward. We believe that the
wave of FDI into Vietnam will be further boosted once Vietnam gradually returns to the "new normal”, with Vietnam still
benefiting from the restructuring of the global supply chain.
❑ Risks: 1) Increasing competition in attracting foreign investment among countries; and 2) it may take time to attract
workers back to work after social distancing.
FDI attraction and disbursement (2012−11M21) Some major FDI projects in 11M21
Registered FDI (L)
FDI disbursement (L) (% YoY)
(US$mn) Project Country Registered capital Products
Registered FDI growth (R)
FDI disbursement growth (R)
30,000 80 Long An 1 and 2
Construction of a
70
Thermal Power Singapore ~ US$3.1bn
thermal power plant
25,000 Plant project
60
Additionally-
50 LG Display Hai
20,000 Korea registered capital of OLED screen products
40 Phong project
US$2.15bn
30
15,000 O Mon 2 Thermal
20 Construction of a
Power Plant Japan ~ US$1.31bn
10 thermal power plant
10,000 project
0 Kraft paper, lined
-10 Kraft Vina Paper
5,000 Japan US$611.4mn paper, and packaging
Mill project
-20 paper
0 -30 Plant of Polytex Additionally- Petrochemical and
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Far Eastern Taiwan registered capital of textile vertical
YTD Vietnam Co., Ltd US$610mn integration factory
Source: Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research compilation, GSO, updated as of 11/20/2021 Source: MPI, Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research compilation

I.7 – FDI (cont’d.)
Registered FDI by sector Registered FDI by country
Proportion Growth rate (% YoY)
Industry
(11M21) 2017 2018 2019 2020 11M21 Proportion Growth rate (% YoY)
58% -5 0 23 -33 15 Country
Manufacturing, processing (11M21)
Production, electricity, gas, 2017 2018 2019 2020 11M21
steam and air conditioning 25% 6329 -81 -57 599 16 South
17% 25 -23 -11 -44 32
supply Korea
Real estate activities 6% 162 136 -81 100 -35 16% 301 -8 -64 -58 222
Japan
Wholesale and retail trade;
repair of motor vehicles 3% -12 33 43 -43 13 Singapore 30% 113 -29 -45 277 2
and motorcycles
Information and Taiwan 5% -17 -38 71 46 -37
2% -45 96 -23 -35 130
communication
Mining and quarrying 2% 1763 -98 18 610 347 9% -16 44 76 -49 31
Hong Kong
Construction 1% -38 -11 65 -22 -10
Agriculture, forestry and China 11% -1 -1 82 -32 24
1% 129 -27 -39 18 162
fishery
100% 42 -14 -12 -7 11
Total 100% 42 -14 -12 -7 11 Total
Source: MPI, Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research compilation
Vietnam has advantage in the labor cost in manufacturing Ease of doing business ranking in 2020
South Korea Singapore Hong Kong Taiwan

(US$/year) China Thailand Malaysia Indonesia 100
80,000 90
80
70,000
70
60,000 60
50,000 50
40
40,000
30
30,000
20
20,000 10
0
10,000
-
Worker Engineer Manager Worker Engineer Manager
2019 2020
Source: Doing Business database, Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research compilation
Source: JETRO, Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research compilation

I.8 – Domestic consumption
Consumption ❑ Total retail sales of consumer goods and services narrowed the decline compared with the previous two months (November: -
12.2% YoY, October: -19.5% YoY, September: -28.4% YoY, August: -33.7% YoY), when provinces/cities begin to ease social
narrowed its
distancing from the end-September. In 11M21, total retail sales of consumer goods and services and consumption slipped by
decline 8.7% YoY (versus +0.3% YoY in 11M20); if excluding the price factor, it decreased by 10.4% YoY (versus -3.8% YoY in 11M20).
❑ We remain optimistic about the recovery of retail and consumer services, although it will take longer for a recovery to return to
pre-pandemic levels, thanks to: 1) increased spending at year-end; 2) an expected rebound in consumer demand when Vietnam
achieves forecast herd immunity and "new normal" in 2022; 3) improvement in workers’ incomes when returning to the labor
market, thereby boosting spending; and 4) potential gradual upturn in the tourism industry in 2022, with a slow recovery once
Vietnam achieves herd immunity and tourism demand by international visitors returns.
❑ The biggest risks to retail and consumption are a resurgence of Covid-19 and slower-than-expected progress on vaccinations.
Retail sales and consumption services growth by sector (% YoY) Despite decline in 3Q21, Vietnam’s Consumer Confidence Index remained positive
Retail sales of consumer goods and services

(% YoY) (Point) 1Q20 2Q20 1Q21 2Q21 3Q21
Retail sales of goods
20 Accommodation & Catering Services 170
Travel Services 160
Other Services 150
0 140
130
120
-20 110
100
90
-40 80
70
60
-60 50
40
30
-80
Dec 19
Dec 20
Aug 19
Sep 19
Nov 19
Aug 20
Sep 20
Nov 20
Aug 21
Sep 21
Nov 21
Jun 19
Oct 19
Apr 20
Jun 20
Oct 20
Apr 21
Jun 21
Oct 21
Feb 20
Feb 21
May 19
Jan 20
Mar 20
May 20
Jan 21
Mar 21
May 21
Jul 19
Jul 20
Jul 21
Source: GSO, Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research compilation Source: The Conference Board, Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research compilation

I.8 – Domestic consumption (cont’d.)
Plan to restore tourism and international routes
Expected execution time
Plan
4Q21 1Q22 2Q22 3Q22
Phase 3: Reopening completely
The Ministry of Culture, Sports to the international tourist
Phase 1: Pilot scheme to
and Tourism proposes three- Phase 2: Expanding the scope market, proving that pandemic
welcome international guests
stage plan to re-open of international arrivals prevention and control plans
with package tour program
international travel are ensured according to
regulations
Phase 2: Pilot scheme of Phase 3: Deployment of

The Civil Aviation Authority of regular flights with only regular flights carrying
Phase 1: Restarting regular Phase 4: Operating
Vietnam proposes a four-phase passengers who have passengers into Vietnam that
international flights initially by regular international
plan to restore international evidence of full vaccination do not require post-entry
resuming all-inclusive flights flights on demand
flights against Covid-19 or recovery quarantine when applying the
from Covid-19 "vaccine passport" mechanism
International travelers to Vietnam plunged for two consecutive years Vietnam’s Covid-19 mobility trend
following Covid-19 outbreak
(% change from
('000 arrivals) International visitors (L) (% YoY) Retail and recreation
baseline)
Growth rate (R) Grocery and pharmacy
2,000 60 40
Workplaces
1,800 40
1,600 20
20
1,400
0 0
1,200
1,000 -20
-20
800 -40
600
-60 -40
400
200 -80
-60
0 -100
Nov 18
Sep 19
Nov 19
Sep 20
Nov 20
Sep 21
Nov 21
Mar 19
Mar 20
Mar 21
Jan 19
May 19
Jul 19
Jan 20
May 20
Jul 20
Jan 21
May 21
Jul 21
-80
Jan 21 Feb 21 Mar 21 Apr 21 May 21 Jun 21 Jul 21 Aug 21 Sep 21 Oct 21
Source: GSO, Covid-19 Community Mobility Reports, Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research

I.9 – Enterprise establishment/dissolution situation
• In October and November, the number of newly-established enterprises and the number of enterprises returning to
New business operation continued to decline over the same period; however, the business registration situation showed positive
registration has signs compared with previous months, thanks to the implementation of Resolution 128/NQ-CP on the safe, effective
control of the Covid-19 pandemic. Specifically, in November, the number of newly-established enterprises increased
positive signals
44.6% MoM, with registered capital and labor rallying 38% MoM and 30.2% MoM, respectively. The number of
businesses returning to operation increased by 15.2% MoM.
• The unemployment rate surged to 3.72% in 3Q21, amid the fourth Covid-19 wave. However, we believe that as soon as
the pandemic is contained successfully, businesses will gradually resume normal production activities. Thus, the
unemployment rate is expected to decline, helping solidify the recovery of domestic demand.
• Key risk to watch: the possibility of labor shortages in the early stage of social distancing easing, if movements of
people between provinces are not well executed.
Enterprise establishment/dissolution situation Monthly registered capital and labor participation Unemployment rate
Newly-established enterprises (% YoY) Registered capital

(%)
Re-operated enterprises The number of labor
Enterprises suspending operation for a definite time 150 4.0
Enterprises waiting for dissolution procedures
(# firms)
Enterprises completed dissolution procedures 100
18,000 3.5
16,000
50
14,000 3.0
12,000
10,000 0
8,000 2.5
6,000 -50
4,000
2.0
2,000 -100
Dec 20
Aug 20
Sep 20
Nov 20
Aug 21
Sep 21
Nov 21
Apr 20
Jun 20
Apr 21
Jun 21
Feb 20
Feb 21
Oct 20
Oct 21
Mar 20
May 20
Mar 21
May 21
Jan 20
Jul 20
Jan 21
Jul 21
-
Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov 1.5
20 20 20 20 20 20 21 21 21 21 21 21
2Q12
4Q12
2Q13
4Q13
2Q14
4Q14
2Q15
4Q15
2Q16
4Q16
2Q17
4Q17
2Q18
4Q18
2Q19
4Q19
2Q20
4Q20
2Q21
Source: GSO, Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research compilation Source: GSO, Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research compilation

I.10 – Exchange rate
• As of end-November, the VND/US$ exchange rate has decreased by 0.1% MoM and 1.6% YTD. The slowdown in export
VND appreciates
growth and realized FDI inflows put pressure on the overall balance of payments, thereby exerting pressure on the
relative to US$ in exchange rate in recent months. We maintain our view that the VND will likely appreciate relative to the US dollar
11M21 from 1.5%−2% in 2021, amid the pressure of the current account likely turning negative and a net withdrawal of FII
inflows.
• In 2022, the VND is expected to be more stable and move in a range of around 0.5% against the US dollar, in light of:
1) the SBV's flexible mechanism for regulating foreign currency supply and demand; 2) an expected return to surplus
for the trade balance in 2022, once exports accelerate; 3) growth of FDI inflows into Vietnam, thanks to production
shifts; 4) Vietnam’s foreign exchange reserves reaching a high level and tending toward increasing; and 5) the US
Treasury’s mid-April removal of Vietnam from its list of currency manipulators and end to the tariff threat on the end-
July currency-dispute truce, which should ease pressure on the VND/US$ exchange rate.
VND/US$ exchange rate VND appreciates relative to US$ in 11M21 Vietnam foreign exchange reserves
CNY VND PHP
VND/USD (T) (US$bn)
(End 2020 INR MYR IDR
DXY (P) = 0%) KRW THB JPY
23800 105 105
14
12
23600
100
100 10
23400
8
95
6
23200 95
4
90
23000 2
90
0
22800 85
-2
22600 85 -4
80
Sep 18
Sep 19
Sep 20
Sep 21
May 18
May 19
May 20
May 21
Jan 18
Jan 19
Jan 20
Jan 21
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov
Jun 20 Aug 20 Oct 20 Dec 20 Feb 21 Apr 21 Jun 21 Aug 21
21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21
Source: Bloomberg, as of 11/30/2021 Source: CEIC

Source: Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research Note: JPY = Japanese yen, PHP = Philippines peso, CNY = Chinese yuan, VND =
Bloomberg, as of 11/30/2021 Vietnamese dong, INR = Indian rupee, KRW = Korean won, MYR = Malaysian
ringgit, THB = Thailand baht, IDR = Indonesian Rupiah

I.11 – Inflation
❑ Vietnam’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.32% MoM and 2.1% YoY in November, in light of the rise of
Inflation remained Transportation, due to upward adjustments of petrol prices, and increasing price of goods and services, due to
increasing demand amid easing of social distancing measures. In 11M21, CPI increased by 1.84% YoY — the lowest
muted
increase since 2016 — and core inflation climbed 0.82% YoY.
❑ Inflation is expected to reach 2%−2.2%, driven by: 1) year-end spending demand and gradual easing of social
distancing measures that may result in a rise in December’s CPI; 2) policies to ensure supply-demand balance and
market stability, which should help offset the inflation risk caused by the recovery of basic commodity prices; 3) the
expected slow recovery of the Culture, Entertainment, and Tourism segment, due to the impact of Covid-19, which
could act as a drag on CPI.
❑ In 2022, inflation is expected to remain controlled at below 4%. Key risks to watch include: 1) the impact of loose
monetary policy; and 2) increasing prices of basic commodities.
Inflation CPI by industry (%)
(% YoY) Inflation Core inflation 11M21 avg.

30 Items YoY YTD MoM
(% YoY)
25 Overall CPI 2.10 2.00 0.32 1.84
Food and Foodstuff -0.08 0.33 -0.17 0.74
20 Beverage and Tobacco 2.43 2.29 0.33 1.79
15
Garment, Footwear and Hats 0.99 0.84 0.25 0.87
Housing and Construction Materials 1.47 1.50 0.46 1.82
10 Household Appliances and Equipment 0.95 0.94 0.19 0.62
Medicines and Healthcare 0.22 0.21 0.04 0.20
5
Transportation 20.71 17.82 3.11 10.06
0 Post and Telecommunications -0.71 -0.71 0.03 -0.76
Education -3.07 -3.07 -0.92 2.35
-5
Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Culture, Entertainment and Tourism -0.35 -0.24 0.09 -0.97
04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 Other Services 1.39 1.28 0.25 1.51
Source: GSO. Note: Core inflation is calculated by the method of directly excluding 16
groups of food, fresh food, energy and prices managed by the State.

I.12 – Economic support plan
Plan to restructure the economy for 2021−2025 period submitted to the National Assembly
Plan Content
Striving for 80% of the population to have two vaccine doses by end-1Q22
Overall program to open the economy in
association with prevention and control of the To uniformly implement regulations on labor mobility, production and supply, and consumption
Covid-19 pandemic
Completely reopening tourism, air transportation, entertainment, cultural and art services, according to
roadmap, by June 2022
One-time support for social protection beneficiaries, people from poor households, and self-employed
workers
One-time support for living expenses for low-income workers

Social Security and Employment Program
Supporting the cost of buying health insurance in 2022 for unemployed workers
Job support
Taxes, fee exemptions and reductions; cutting interest rates, providing interest rate compensation for
priority subjects in some industries and fields.
Acquiring and investing in businesses in important industries that are facing difficulties due to Covid-19
Program to restore businesses, cooperatives, Reduction in value-added tax rates on goods and services for consumption and living purposes
business households
Fee reduction, extension, and support; and electricity price support for industries heavily affected by
Covid-19, such as air transportation, road transportation, and tourism industry
Supports input costs, electricity bills for Agriculture, Forestry, and Fishery industries
Supports digital transformation and innovative start-ups
End-2021 and 1H22: investment preparation, site clearance, compensation, and resettlement
Program to develop infrastructure, unlock social
resources for development investment From 2H22 and 2023: project implementation, accelerate disbursement of public investment capital;
aiming for annual disbursement rate of capital plan at about 95%

I.13 – Key macroeconomic indicators
Indicator 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020E 2021F 2022F
Real GDP growth (%, YoY) 6.0 6.7 6.2 6.8 7.1 7.0 2.9 2.3 5.7
Export growth (%, YoY) 13.8 8.1 9.0 21.1 13.2 8.4 6.5 20.0 20.0
Import growth (%, YoY) 12 12.1 5.6 20.8 11.1 6.8 3.6 30.0 21.0
Trade balance (US$ bn) 2.0 -3.2 2.6 2.7 6.8 11.1 19.1 -2.3 4.0
FDI disbursement (US$ bn) 12.4 14.5 15.8 17.5 19.1 20.4 20.0 20 22
Retail growth, excluding inflation (%, YoY) 6.2 8.5 8.3 9.3 9.4 9.2 -1.2 -2.0 7.0
Average CPI (%) 4.1 0.6 2.7 3.5 3.5 2.8 3.2 3.0 3.8
Foreign exchange reserve (US$bn) 34.5 30.5 36.7 49.2 55.3 78.5 94.8 110 130
Credit growth (%, YoY) 14.2 17.3 18.2 18.3 10.7 13.6 12.2 13 13
Exchange rate VND/US$ 21,388 22,485 22,761 22,698 23,175 23,314 23,267 22,802 22,916
Change in VND/US$ (%) 1.4 5.1 1.2 -0.3 2.1 0.5 -0.2 -2.0 0.5
Public debt (%/GDP)* 43.6 46.1 47.6 46.3 43.6 43.4 46.6 47.1 47.6
Source: GSO, Vietnam Customs, MPI, Bloomberg, WB, Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research
Note (*): GDP is revised to adhere to international practices. After recalculation, the revised GDP increased by 25.4% on average over the period 2010-2017.

II. Vietnam stock market 2021 review
• In 2021, the VN-Index successfully surpassed the 1,200-point threshold and conquered the all-
time high of 1,500 points against the unfavorable backdrop of two consecutive Covid-19
outbreaks. Noticeably, the stock market often rebounded impressively following the pandemic-
induced corrections. Thus far, 2021 marked a record-breaking year, with the VN-Index boasting
an unrivaled YTD return (+34% YTD).
• Banks, Real Estate, Materials, Capital Goods, and Diversified Financials provided the biggest
boost to the VN-Index, with respective contributions of 31%, 23%, 15%, 10%, and 8%.
• Along with strong market momentum, Vietnamese stocks witnessed a major breakthrough in
market liquidity. The daily average trading value surged to around VND20tr, or four times higher
than the 2020 level. In particular, on November 19, the daily trading value set its new high of
VND43tr. According to our liquidity tracker, most industries are trading at their highest levels in
the past year.
• Foreign investors have maintained a net-selling strategy this year, with a net amount of VND55tr
(or US$2.6bn) YTD — three times the 2020 level. Other Asia markets shared the same situation,
apart from India and Indonesia. In terms of ETFs, US$115mn was injected YTD, mainly stemming
from Fubon FTSE Vietnam ETF (+US$203mn).
• Domestic individuals were net buyers throughout the first 11 months, providing a fresh boost to
market liquidity and price momentum. In the low interest rate era, savings have been diverted
into the stock market, with monthly new retail account openings exceeding 100,000 YTD.

II.1 – Market performance review
• In 2021, the VN-Index successfully surpassed the 1,200-point threshold (i.e., the historical peak reached in April 2018)
and conquered the all-time high of 1,500 points against the unfavorable backdrop of two consecutive Covid-19
2021 marked outbreaks. Noticeably, the stock market often rebounded impressively following the pandemic-induced corrections. In
a record-breaking year, particular, the third wave of Covid-19 in late January triggered a short-lived sell-off; subsequently, the VN-Index posted
a superior return in February (+10.6% MoM) and enjoyed a five-month bullish run to reach the 1,400-point threshold.
with the VN-Index
Similarly, the market experienced a nasty correction in July, due to increasing bearish sentiment over the severe Delta-
boasting an unrivaled led resurgence, before resuming the upward momentum in August, with VN-Index setting the all-time high of 1,500
YTD return points in November.
• Banks, Real Estate, Materials, Capital Goods, and Diversified Financials provided the biggest boost to the VN-Index,
with respective contributions of 31%, 23%, 15%, 10%, and 8%.
• Compared with global markets, VN-Index had a standout YTD performance (+34% YTD), following by the US (S&P 500:
+24%), India (SENSEX: +29,5%), and Taiwan (TWSE: +18,3%).
Global performance monitor: Monthly change (% MoM)
Vietnam US MSCI DM MSCI EM MSCI FM Korea Japan China Hong Kong Taiwan India Thailand Malaysia Indonesia Philippines Singapore
Index VNINDEX SPX MXWO MXEF MXFM KOSPI NKY SHCOMP HIS TWSE SENSEX SET FBMKLCI JCI PCOMP STI
01-2021 -4.3% -1.1% -1.1% 3.0% 0.3% 3.6% 0.8% 0.3% 3.9% 2.8% -3.1% 1.2% -3.7% -2.0% -7.4% 2.1%
02-2021 10.6% 2.6% 2.5% 0.7% 0.1% 1.2% 4.7% 0.7% 2.5% 5.4% 6.1% 2.0% 0.7% 6.5% 2.8% 1.6%
03-2021 2.0% 4.2% 3.1% -1.7% -0.1% 1.6% 0.7% -1.9% -2.1% 3.0% 0.8% 6.0% -0.3% -4.1% -5.2% 7.3%
04-2021 4.0% 5.2% 4.5% 2.4% 6.3% 2.8% -1.3% 0.1% 1.2% 6.9% -1.5% -0.3% 1.8% 0.2% -1.1% 1.7%
05-2021 7.2% 0.5% 1.3% 2.1% 3.5% 1.8% 0.2% 4.9% 1.5% -2.8% 6.5% 0.7% -1.1% -0.8% 4.0% -1.7%
06-2021 6.1% 2.2% 1.4% -0.1% 2.5% 2.9% -0.2% -0.7% -1.1% 4.0% 1.0% -0.4% -3.2% 0.6% 4.1% -1.1%
07-2021 -7.0% 2.3% 1.7% -7.0% -0.7% -2.9% -5.2% -5.4% -9.9% -2.9% 0.2% -4.1% -2.5% 1.4% -9.2% 1.2%
08-2021 1.6% 2.9% 2.3% 2.4% 2.3% -0.1% 3.0% 4.3% -0.3% 1.4% 9.4% 7.7% 7.1% 1.3% 9.3% -3.5%
09-2021 0.8% -4.8% -4.3% -4.2% 0.9% -4.1% 4.9% 0.7% -5.0% -3.2% 2.7% -2.0% -4.0% 2.2% 1.4% 1.0%
10-2021 7.6% 6.9% 5.6% 0.9% 4.0% -3.2% -1.9% -0.6% 3.3% 0.3% 0.3% 1.1% 1.6% 4.8% 1.5% 3.6%
11-2021 2.4% 1.1% -0.6% -3.6% -3.7% -4.4% -3.7% 0.5% -7.5% 2.6% -3.8% -3.4% -3.1% -0.9% 2.1% -4.9%
2021 YTD 33.9% 23.9% 17.3% -5.6% 16.1% -1.2% 1.4% 2.6% -13.8% 18.3% 19.5% 8.2% -7.0% 9.3% 0.9% 6.9%
Source: Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research, Bloomberg

II.2 – VN-Index and key driving events
Social distancing
(Point) Social distancing period eased/suspended
1,500
5
4
The Government promulgates Decree
52/2021/ND-CP on extension of time limit
for payment of value-added tax, corporate 3
income tax, personal income tax, and land Resolution No.
1,400 68/NQ-CP is issued, 1
rental in 2021.
with a support
package of 2
The State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) VND26,000bn
issued Circular 03/2021/TTNHNN on Package of tax
1,300 April 2, 2021, amending Cir. exemptions,
01/2020/TT-NHNN to extend debt reductions for
moratorium for loans hit by Covid-19 businesses and
and allow banks to apply 3-year individual
provisioning roadmap for these loans. Vietnam business
1,200 Fourth officially households
Covid-19 launches its worth VND21tr
Record number of
resurgence largest-ever
new accounts
vaccination
opened;
campaign
daily turnover has Resolution No.
1,100 VND285tr credit
continuously 105/NQ-CP on
support package
recorded new peaks supporting
and a fiscal
since May 2020 businesses,
package worth Third cooperatives,
VND30tr Covid-19 and business
1,000 wave households
negatively
RCEP is officially affected by
Second signed Covid-19
Covid-19
900 Many wave
countries SBV cuts
WHO ease refinancing Key events in October and November 2021
declares lockdowns rate to 4%
Covid-19 SBV cuts 1) Resolution No. 128/NQ-CP of the Government promulgating the regulation
800 outbreak a refinancing "Safely and flexibly adapting, effectively controlling the Covid-19 pandemic"
pandemic rate to 2) The Government issued Official Letter 7776/CD-VPCP on accelerating the
4.5% EVFTA officially disbursement of public investment capital in 2021
comes into 3) The Government submits the Economic Restructuring Plan for the 2021−2025
SBV cuts Support effect period to the National Assembly. The National Assembly will vote on a
refinancing package of resolution on the Economic Restructuring Plan for the 2021−2025 period on
700 rate by VND62tr November 12.
100bps to
4) 96% of businesses in Ho Chi Minh City reopen
5%
Social distancing 5) A new Covid variant — Omicron — detected in South Africa
measures enacted
600
Jan 20 Feb 20 Mar 20 Apr 20 May 20 Jun 20 Jul 20 Aug 20 Sep 20 Oct 20 Nov 20 Dec 20 Jan 21 Feb 21 Mar 21 Apr 21 May 21 Jun 21 Jul 21 Aug 21 Sep 21 Oct 21 Nov 21

I.3 – Top market movers
• Banks benefited from pent-up credit demand and widened NIM in 1H21, while allowance of restructuring
Banks, Real Estate, repayment deadlines for pandemic-affected borrowers without changing loan classifications eased provision
Materials, Capital pressure. Furthermore, growth momentum of non-interest income streams, stemming from fee and commission
services, forex trading, and securities trading, remained intact. In addition, newly exclusive bancassurance
Goods, Diversified agreements brought upfront fees and shored up non-interest income. Again this backdrop, some banking stocks
Financials, Retailing, posted stellar YTD performance, namely VPB (+109%), VIB (+82%), and MBB (+72%).
and Software & Services • Real Estate (NVL: +129%; PDR: +123%) and Capital (DIG: +218%; GEX: +173%) are among the main beneficiaries in
the low interest-rate environment. In addition, the government has begun to remove many bottlenecks in the legal
led the market in 2021 process. Notably, some stocks that enjoyed the peerless returns have their unique growth stories related to the
potential of their land bank, the absorption of their projects, as well as their ambitious expansion plans.
• In Materials, steelmakers (e.g. HPG: +59%) have benefited from robust demand, boosted by: 1) the government’s
large-scale infrastructure development plans; and 2) China curtailing its steel exports. Furthermore, steel prices
have soared from the pandemic-induced lows.
• In Diversified Financials, VND (+321%) and SSI (+156%) were among the top outperformers. In the era of low
interest rates, savings have been diverted into the stock market, with buoyant market liquidity powered by retail
investors. Against the backdrop of soaring transaction volumes, those companies also increased their charter
capital significantly in 2021 to capture the margin lending demand. Moreover, their trading portfolios have
generally performed well amid the extended upward rally.
Top market movers in 2021 YTD (part 1)
321%
218%
173%
156%
129% 123%
109%
82% 72% 64% 61% 59%
48%
25% 23% 30%
9%
-7% -5%
-30%
VPB VIB MBB TCB HDB ACB CTG BID NVL PDR VHM VIC VRE DIG GEX HPG GVR APH VND SSI
Banks Real Estate Capital Goods Materials Diversified

Financials
Source: Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research, Bloomberg. Data as of Nov. 30, 2021.

I.3 – Top market movers (cont’d.)
Banks, Real Estate, • Retailing stocks, notably MWG (+75%), performed well, thanks to consumption recovery expectations, as well as the
boom-and-bust nature of e-commerce. Furthermore, digitalization, remote work, and online learning have given a
Materials, Capital Goods, fresh impetus to technology equipment consumption. The domestic demand for technology hardware and
Diversified Financials, equipment is entering the rapid growth phase, thanks to supportive demographics, upskilling labor force,
increasing urbanization, and rising middle class.
Retailing, and Software &
• Software & Services growth momentum was robust, thanks to accelerated digital transformation and technology
Services led the market adoption amid broadening online connectivity and physical distancing restrictions stemming from the Covid-19
in 2021 pandemic. Accordingly, leading technology firm FPT enjoyed a strong rally in 2021 (+89% YTD).
• In F&B, many stocks dropped significantly in 2021, namely VNM (-19%), BHN (-20%), SAB (-21%), GTN (-24%), and
HNG (-39%), as their businesses faced fierce competition and compressed profit margins. Bucking the trend, MSN
increased by up to 68% YTD, thanks to a business line diversification strategy, including food and beverages (e.g.,
packaged food, processed meat, beverages), grocery retail (i.e., supermarkets and convenience stores), and high-
tech materials (e.g., tungsten). Besides, the firm plans to sell 100% of its animal feed business to De Heus in order to
focus on the meat business.
• Insurance companies have been negatively affected in the low interest rate era. However, the expectation of lifting
foreign ownership limit rates and divestment of state capital, as well as the possibility of increasing deposit rates,
resulted in the stock price bouncing back since August. In all, BVH (i.e., the leading insurance firm) fell by 8% YTD.
Top market movers in 2021 YTD (part 2)
89%
75%
68%
-8%
-19% -20% -21% -24%
-39%
-63%
MWG FPT MSN VNM BHN SAB GTN HNG BVH YEG
Retailing Software F&B Insurance Media &

& Services Entertainment

II.4 – Market liquidity heatmap
Major breakthrough in • Along with strong market momentum, Vietnamese stocks witnessed a major breakthrough in market liquidity.
The daily average trading value surged to around VND20tr, or four times higher than the 2020 level. In particular,
market liquidity, with
on November 19, the daily trading value set a new high of VND43tr.
daily average trading • To rank liquidity levels, we use percentile scores that allow for comparing the current trading level to its historic
value quadrupling YoY to trading levels over the trailing twelve-month period. The score ranges from 0% (the lowest) to 100% (the
highest). For visualization, we use a heat map, with red signifying the lowest, green the highest, and yellow the
around VND20tr middle. Accordingly, most industries are trading at their highest levels in the past year.
Market liquidity heatmap
GICS Industry group 11-2020 12-2020 01-2021 02-2021 03-2021 04-2021 05-2021 06-2021 07-2021 08-2021 09-2021 10-2021 11-2021
Real Estate 100%
Materials 100%
Capital Goods 100%
Diversified Financials 100%
F&B 100%
Transportation 100%
Utilities 100%
Consumer Durables & Apparel 100%
Health Care 100%
Technology Hardware & Equipment 100%
Consumer Services 100%
Commercial & Professional Services 100%
Media & Entertainment 100%
Energy 92%
Retailing 92%
Insurance 92%
Automobiles & Components 92%
Telecommunication Services 83%
Banks 75%
Software & Services 75%
Pharmaceuticals 75%
VN-INDEX 100%
Source: Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research

II.5 – Foreign investment review
Foreign investors • The upward trend was not supported by foreign trading, with a net selling value of VND55tr (or US$2.6bn) YTD. By stock,
foreign investors sold heavily HPG (VND17.4tr), VPB (VND8tr), VNM (VND6.9tr), VIC (VND6.8tr), CTG (VND5.8tr), SSI (VND4tr), and
kept their selling NLG (VND2.6tr). Meanwhile, STB (VND4tr) and VHM (VND3.5tr) were the top draws. By industry, they mainly sold Materials, F&B,
strategy Banks, and Real Estate, but bought Retailing, Energy, Health Care, Software & Services, and Technology Hardware & Equipment.
• Looking back, foreign investors have maintained a net-selling strategy since August 2019. For 2021, YTD net-selling amount was
triple the 2020 level.
• Other Asian markets shared similar situations (Korea: -US$25.6bn YTD; Taiwan: -US$18.4bn; Thailand: -US$2.3bn; Philippines: -
US$1.7bn), apart from India (+US$5.5bn) and Indonesia (+US$2.6bn).
Foreign net buying/selling by month (unit: US$mn) Capital flows of foreign investors in Asian markets
Month YTD Market

2018 2019 2020 2021 YTD
(US$mn)
800
Vietnam 1,887 182 -876 -2,595
400
0 S. Korea -5,676 924 -20,082 -25,648
-400
India -4,557 14,234 23,373 5,502
-800
Taiwan -12,231 9,377 -15,997 -18,384
-1200
-1600
Indonesia -3,656 3,465 -3,220 2,588
-2000 Malaysia -2,885 -2,683 -5,782 -497
-2400
Philippines -1,080 -240 -2,513 -1,729
-2800
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 101112 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 101112 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1011
Thailand -8,913 -1,496 -8,287 -2,328
2019 2020 2021
Source: Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research, Bloomberg Source: Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research, Bloomberg. Data as of Nov. 30, 2021.

II.6 – ETFs review
ETF injected US$115mn • We believe that the FII has moved from the frontier and emerging markets to the US market since 2020 due to: 1)
the appreciation of the US dollar; 2) the US’ large-scale stimulus packages; and 3) strong rallies in the US stock
YTD, marked a fifth market. Furthermore, FII outflows may accelerate if the Fed were to raise its policy rate. Also, fast-rising bond
consecutive year of net yields in the US could put pressure on global stock markets.
inflows • Against the FII outflow, Vietnam saw ETF net injections throughout the past five years. In 2021, nearly US$115mn
has been injected YTD, mainly stemming from Fubon FTSE Vietnam ETF (+US$203mn). That said, Fubon ETF has
withdrawn about US$131mn in the past four months (from August to November), after recording inflows in April
(+US$168mn) and July (+US$172mn).
Net inflow/outflow by ETF in 2021 YTD (unit: US$mn) Vietnam saw ETF injections in 5 consecutive years (unit: US$mn)
Total FII ETFs

203
1,887
115
1,163
70
39
19 182 182 246 220
96 115
-49
-78 -876
-89
-2,595
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 YTD
Source: Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research, Bloomberg. Data as of Nov. 30, 2021. Source: Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research, Bloomberg. Data as of Nov. 30, 2021.

II.7 – Net purchases by investor type
Domestic • Contrary to foreign investors’ net-selling strategy, domestic individuals were net buyers throughout the first 11 months.
In particular, retail investors bought a net amount of VND84tr YTD. In the era of low interest rates, savings have been
individuals were diverted into the stock market. Since March 2021, domestic individuals have opened at least 100,000 new accounts per
net buyers, month. In the first 11 months, domestic individuals opened more than 1.3mn new accounts, accounting for 99.6% of
total newly-opened accounts. In sum, retail investors have powered the market, boosting market liquidity and price
providing a fresh momentum.
boost to market
liquidity and price
momentum
VN-Index net purchases by investor type Retail investors has powered the market, boosting market liquidity
Foreign investors Daily average traded value New accounts of domestic individuals (RHS)
Domestic institutions
Domestic retail
New accounts of domestic individuals (RHS) (VNDbn) (Number of accounts)
(VNDbn) (Number of accounts)
Total new accounts (RHS)
16,000 250,000 35,000 250,000
12,000 30,000
200,000
200,000
8,000 25,000
4,000 150,000
150,000 20,000
0
15,000
100,000
100,000
-4,000
10,000
-8,000 50,000
50,000 5,000
-12,000
0 0
Sep 20
Sep 21
Nov 20
Nov 21
Jan 20
Mar 20
May 20
Jul 20
Jan 21
Mar 21
May 21
Jul 21
-16,000 0
Jan 21 Feb 21 Mar 21 Apr 21 May 21 Jun 21 Jul 21 Aug 21 Sep 21 Oct 21 Nov 21
Source: Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research, FiinPro, Vietnam Securities Depository (VSD) Source: Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research, FiinPro, Vietnam Securities Depository (VSD)

III. Vietnam stock market 2022 prospects
• High EPS growth expectations will propel the market. The economy would be better placed to
benefit from post-pandemic shifts through wide-ranging structural reforms, supported by both
fiscal and monetary policies. On the back of a higher pace of vaccinations and increasing
adaptability to a new normal, we expect the recovery to be broad-based in 2022, with 2020–2022
EPS CAGR of 29% pa (below the market consensus of 30% pa). Based on historical precedent, we
expect a reasonable P/E range of 15x–17x, with a base-case of 16x. Accordingly, we expect the
VN-Index to conquer the 1,700 points in 2022 as our base case, or 15% higher than the VN-Index
level as of end-November.
• Market drivers: 1) Market optimism about Covid-19 containment, fiscal stimulus, confidence of
Vietnam economic backdrop, as well as the growth prospect of listed companies; 2) in the era of
low interest rates, savings to be diverted into the stock market, buoyant market liquidity
powered by retail investors to remain intact; 3) investment and consumption encouraged with
low financing cost; 5) SOE privatization; and 6) emerging-market classification visibility, along
with initiatives for improving stock market transparency.
• Key risk to watch is related to the Covid-19 pandemic. As such, the resurgence of infections, as
well as new variants, could potentially lead to risk-off sentiment and increasing profit-taking
pressure in the short term. However, we believe the index’s valuation remains undemanding at
a 2022F P/E of 13.9x based on our growth forecast. Thus, we recommend taking advantage of
any sharp correction as a buying opportunity.

III.1 – Earnings outlook
We project the 2022 EPS • We revised our 2021 EPS growth projection downward to 34% YoY (from 40%) to discount emerging risk related
to the new Covid-19 variant (Omicron) and the resurgence of local new infected cases. By industry, Diversified
growth of 24% YoY,
Financials, Materials, Real Estate, Energy, Banks, Insurance, Transportation, Utilities, Software & Services, and
equivalent to 2020–2022 Retailing are expected to grow by more than 20% YoY in 2021.
EPS CAGR of 29% pa • The economy would be better placed to benefit from post-pandemic shifts through wide-ranging structural
reforms, supported by both fiscal and monetary policies. On the back of higher pace of vaccination and
increasing adaptability to the new normalcy, we expect the recovery to be broad-based in 2022.
o Exporters are reaping economic benefits from global-value-chain participation, boosted by multilateral
and bilateral FTAs. Furthermore, the PMIs of Vietnam’s major trading partners have rebounded above
50 points, signaling improving global demand. Also, port operators and logistics are benefiting from
Vietnam’s trading turnover boom.
o Consumption will recover from the low base, as Vietnam has a young population, growing middle class,
fast pace of urbanization. On the back of rising household incomes, stronger consumer purchasing
power has naturally led to higher spending in the search for better quality of life. Increasing private
consumption would normally encourage companies to boost output and capacity, adding to the
growth impetus.
o Building materials (such as steel, stone, cement) and construction/engineering firms are expected to
reap financial rewards from accelerated public investment disbursement in 2022.
o Industrial zone prospects look promising, with robust FDI inflows boosted by global supply chain
reallocation.
o Under the new normalcy backdrop, rising digital adoption and large underserved market will provide
substantial room for Banks, Diversified Financials, and Software & Services.
• Accordingly, we expect a broad-based growth in 2022, with the whole-market EPS growth expectation of nearly
24% YoY (equivalent to 2020–2022 EPS CAGR of 29% pa, below the market consensus of 30% pa). Based on EPS
growth level, we classified into three groups: 1) strong momentum; 2) slow momentum; and 3) improving. As
for Group 1, the earnings growth prospects of Diversified Financials, Real Estate, Banks, and Software &
Services remained intact. Meanwhile, Materials, Energy, Insurance, and Utilities will continue to grow in 2022,
but at a slower pace. In terms of Group 3, Transportation, Retailing, Health Care, Capital Goods, Consumer
Durables & Apparel, Automobiles & Components, and F&B will improve when the economy fully reopen.
• That said, the risk of lockdown related to further outbreaks is posed significant risk to our forecast.

III.1 – Earnings outlook (cont’d.)
EPS growth (% YoY) heat map by industry for HOSE-listed firms:
CAGR
GICS Industry group 1Q20 2Q20 3Q20 4Q20 1Q21 2Q21 3Q21 (*) 2019 2020 2021F 2022F
2020–2022F
Diversified Financials -96% 146% 55% 91% 7361% 89% 110% -23% 41% 141% 29% 76%
Strong momentum
Real Estate 25% -41% 34% 1% 42% 125% 5% 1% -17% 38% 24% 31%
Banks 7% 23% 7% 27% 77% 37% 18% 26% 15% 36% 21% 28%
Software & Services 20% 15% -3% 26% 21% 15% 24% 24% 7% 23% 24% 24%
Pharmaceuticals 15% 12% 15% -6% 8% 13% 12% 3% 2% 9% 11% 10%
Materials 19% 32% 69% 121% 192% 191% 122% -18% 31% 43% 9% 25%
Slow momentum
Energy -233% -10% -11% 11% 144% 31% -74% -76% -7% 36% 16% 26%
Insurance -48% 69% 26% 180% 137% 2% 10% 14% 19% 29% 14% 21%
Utilities -29% -35% -41% -7% -2% 22% 47% -3% -19% 27% 10% 18%
Transportation -182% -145% -174% -158% -34% -187% 20% -10% -32% 28% 26% 27%
Retailing 0% -27% 11% 25% 33% 50% -25% -5% -7% 21% 21% 21%
Health Care 36% -8% 4% 66% -13% 19% -11% -6% 3% 19% 21% 20%
Improving
Capital Goods -20% -9% 16% 10% 93% 20% -32% -13% -3% 17% 15% 16%
Consumer Durables & Apparel -12% 17% 25% 93% 30% 177% -92% 13% -26% 12% 17% 14%
Automobiles & Components 89% -16% 20% 8% 26% 56% -63% 44% 25% -3% 12% 4%
F&B -34% 11% -10% -15% 18% -3% -15% 6% -15% -15% 16% -1%
VN-INDEX -25% -8% -8% 22% 92% 65% 22% 7% 0% 34% 24% 29%
Source: Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research, Bloomberg. (*) We used our 3Q21 earnings projection for VJC to calculate for Transportation.

III.1 – Earnings outlook (cont’d.)
2020–2023 EPS CAGR by industry for HOSE-listed firms 2021 and 2022 EPS growth by industry for HOSE-listed firms
2020 growth CAGR 2022F-2020 2021F growth 2022F growth
-40%-20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80%100% -50% 0% 50% 100% 150%
Diversified Financials 76% Diversified Financials 29%

Real Estate 31% Real Estate 24%
Banks 28% Banks 21%
Energy 26% Energy 16%
Materials 25% Materials 9%
Transportation 24% Transportation 20%
Software & Services 24% Software & Services 24%
Retailing 21% Retailing 21%
Insurance 21% Insurance 14%
Health Care 20% Health Care 21%
Utilities 18% Utilities 10%
Capital Goods 16% Capital Goods 15%
Consumer Durables & Apparel 14% Consumer Durables & Apparel 17%
Pharmaceuticals 10% Pharmaceuticals 11%
Automobiles & Components 4% Automobiles & Components 12%
F&B -1% F&B 16%
VNINDEX 29% VNINDEX 24%
Source: Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research Source: Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research

III.2 – Historical valuations
• In 2021 YTD, the VN-Index traded in the range of 15.3-19.1x of P/E—less than two standard deviations (SDs)
VN-Index’s P/E above the 10-year average. As of end-November, the VN-Index traded at 17.5x on a trailing P/E basis, or one SD
fluctuated from 15x to above the 10-year average. Compared with the historical high of 22x (set in April 2018, VN-Index at 1,204 pts), the
current P/E level was lowered by 25.5%.
19x in 2021
• As for the large-cap group, the VN30 Index’s P/E fluctuated from 13.1x to 17.1x in 2021 YTD, with the current level
of 15x.
• In terms of the mid-cap group, the VN70 Index’s P/E was in the range of 12.7–20.9x in the same period, with the
latest level of 16.6x.
P/E of VN-Index: 10-year band chart P/E stats in 2021

(x) P/E -2SD -1SD
(x) interquartile range Current
10-year average +1SD +2SD 24
23
21
19.8 21
19
17 17.3
18
15
14.8
15
13
12.3
11
12
9.7
9
7 9
Nov 11 Nov 13 Nov 15 Nov 17 Nov 19 Nov 21 VN-Index VN30 Index VN70 Index VNFinLead Index
Source: Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research, Bloomberg Source: Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research, Bloomberg. Data as of Nov. 30, 2021.

III.3 – Market valuation based on EPS growth expectation
VN-Index expected to • High EPS growth expectations will propel the market. We expect broad-based growth in 2022, with 2020–2022 EPS
CAGR of 29% pa (below the market consensus of 30% pa). Based on historical precedent, we expect a reasonable P/E
reach 1,700 points in range of 15x–17x, with a base-case of 16x. Accordingly, we expect the VN-Index to conquer the 1,700 point level in
2022 as our base case, or 15% higher than the VN-Index level as of end-November.
2022
• Market drivers: 1) Market optimism about Covid-19 containment, fiscal stimulus, confidence in Vietnam’s economic
backdrop, as well as the growth prospects of listed companies; 2) in the era of low interest rates, with savings being
diverted into the stock market, buoyant market liquidity powered by retail investors will remain intact; 3) investment
and consumption encouraged by low financing cost; 5) SOE privatization; and 6) emerging-market classification
visibility, along with initiatives for improving stock market transparency.
• The key risk to watch is related to the Covid-19 pandemic. As such, the resurgence of infections, as well as new
variants, could potentially lead to risk-off sentiment and increasing profit-taking pressure in the short term. However,
we believe the index’s valuation remains undemanding, at a 2022F P/E of 13.9x, based on our growth forecast. Thus,
we recommend taking advantage of any sharp correction as a buying opportunity.
VN-Index forecast for 2022: Base case of 1,700 points High EPS growth expectations will propel the market
(point)
Fair P/E VNINDEX P/E 16x
2,000
13 14 15 16 17 18 19
1,800
26% 1,321 1,422 1,524 1,625 1,727 1,829 1,930 1,600
1,400
27% 1,342 1,445 1,548 1,651 1,755 1,858 1,961
2020–2022 EPS CAGR
1,200
28% 1,363 1,468 1,573 1,677 1,782 1,887 1,992 1,000
800
29% 1,384 1,491 1,597 1,704 1,810 1,917 2,023
600
30% 1,406 1,514 1,622 1,730 1,838 1,947 2,055 400
200
31% 1,428 1,537 1,647 1,757 1,867 1,977 2,086
0
Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec
32% 1,449 1,561 1,672 1,784 1,895 2,007 2,118
08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22
Source: Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research Source: Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research, Bloomberg

III.4 – Market drivers
• Fiscal policies: Based on the revised GDP figure, the public debt-to-GDP ratio was estimated at about 46.6% as of end-
2020, well below the IMF’s recommended threshold of 55%. According to IMF’s projection, public debt could increase to
Both fiscal and 47.1% of GDP as of end-2021, as state budget expenditures are likely to increase to aid the Covid-19 fight and support
monetary polices pandemic-affected households and firms. That said, the projected public debt level is still lower than the ceiling of 60%
set by the National Assembly. Thus, headroom for fiscal policy remains comfortable.
remain very
• Monetary policies:
supportive
o Credit growth suffered a setback during the lockdown, with softer growth in 3Q21. As of end-September, credit
growth was 7.88% YTD. Since October, as companies have rehabilitated their businesses, their funding needs have
simultaneously increased. Thus, credit growth is expected to accelerate in 4Q21, with the whole-year projection of
13% YoY. Also, we project the 2022 credit growth of 13% YoY to help finance recovery and expansion plans.
o Interest rate: With the inflation target of 4%, headroom for another cut is limited. That said, interest rates are
expected to stand at the current levels; therefore, investment and consumption are encouraged with low
financing costs. Indeed, the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) announced that banks have lowered lending rates by
1.55%p to support pandemic-hit customers.
o Other: The SBV enacted Circular 14/2021/TT-NHNN to delay the timeline on Covid-19-affected debt moratoriums;
accordingly, affected borrowers have enough time to recover repayment capacity (indirectly reducing bad debts).
Headroom for fiscal policy remains comfortable Credit growth is expected to accelerate for financing the recovery
(% ) (YTD)
Public debt-to-GDP ratio IMF's recommended threshold 2019 2020 2021F
14% 2019 13.65%
60
2021F 13%
12% 2020 12.17%
55
10%
50 8%
47.6 47.1
46.1 46.3 46.6
6%
45 43.6 43.6 43.4
41.4 4%
40 38.3
2%
35.8
35 0%
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021F 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 (Month)
Source: Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research, IMF Source: Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research, State bank of Vietnam (SBV)

III.4 – Market drivers (cont’d.)
EPS growth prospects and • Emerging-market classification visibility in the foreseeable future, along with initiatives for improving stock market
transparency, will attract offshore investors, funds, and ETFs. Indeed, the Vietnam market is relatively attractive for
high ROE make the long-term investors, in terms of economic growth and corporate earnings prospects (both of which are forecast to
market relatively outperform those of other markets). VN-Index’s EPS growth consensus for 2022 is relatively high compared with
regional peers, along with high ROE, which makes the Vietnam stock market relatively attractive.
attractive
• State-owned enterprises privatization will be boosted in 2022: As planned, the State will reduce its ownership at six
firms (including SAB, FPT, BMI, NTP, VNR, and another non-listed firm), with a total value of about VND40tr.
Vietnam’s market has relatively high ROE, with reasonable P/E Vietnam’s market is expected to enjoy high EPS growth, attractive 2022 forward P
US
19 30 Vietnam
Philippines
17 Vietnam
Taiwan 25
MSCI FM MSCI DM
15
MSCI EM India 20 India
MSCI FM Indonesia
2022 EPS growth consensus (%)

China
13 Japan
15
ROE (%)
Hong Kong Thailand

China
11 Singapore
Korea 10
Hong Kong
9 Malaysia Japan
Thailand Philippines
Indonesia US
5
MSCI DM
MSCI EM
7
Malaysia
Singapore Korea
0
5 Taiwan
9 14 19 24
-5
10 12 14 16 18 20 22
P/E (x)
2022 forward P/E (x)
Source: Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research, Bloomberg. Data as of Nov. 30, 2021. Source: Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research, Bloomberg. Data as of Nov. 30, 2021.

III.4 – Market drivers (cont’d.)
Earnings yield expected to move downward in era of low interest rates
Refinancing rate Discount Rate Earnings yield 10-year bond yield

10%
Compared with current bond

9% yields, the stock market’s
earnings yield is relatively high. In
other words, earnings yields
should be lowered, or stock prices
8% would increase.
7%
6%
5%
4%
3%
2%
1%
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

III.5 – Risks to watch
Increasing pandemic- • In the control of Covid-19 outbreaks, the progress of vaccinations is one of our top priorities to watch. In
November, the number of infections in Vietnam increased rapidly, with the total number of patients in hospital
induce uncertainty surpassing the September peak. However, thanks to the high vaccination rate, the epidemic situation is still under
control.
• New Covid-19 variants: In late-November, the new Omicron strain has spread to many countries. However,
researchers are still in the process of medical evaluation and the impact is thus still unclear.
• The banking system's non-performing loans and pandemic-triggered debt moratorium: Bad debt rate is likely to
increase significantly in 2022. According to our estimates, about 5.3% of total loans, as of end-August, were restructured
due to Covid-19. While it is expected that the payment capacity of borrowers will recover along with the economic
recovery, part of the restructured debts will deteriorate into bad debt.
• Inflationary risks due to high credit growth, stimulus policies, as well as high commodity prices. Notably, China’s "Go
green" policies have a profound impact on global commodity prices.
• Fed’s policies: Meetings of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) are key events in 2022. In case the Fed
unexpectedly increases the policy rates in June 2022, it may cause FII outflows to accelerate.
Top-ten global risk scenarios in 2022 according to EIU
# Top-ten global risk scenarios in 2022
1 Worsening US-China ties force a full decoupling in the global economy
2 An unexpectedly fast monetary tightening leads to a US stock market crash
3 A property crash in China leads to a sharp economic slowdown
4 Tighter domestic and global financial conditions derail the recovery in emerging markets
5 New Covid-19 variants emerge that prove resistant to vaccines
6 Widespread social unrest weighs on the global recovery
7 Conflict erupts between China and Taiwan, forcing the US to intervene
8 EU-China ties worsen significantly
9 Severe droughts prompt a famine
10 An inter-state cyberwar cripples state infrastructure in major economies
Source: EIU

III.6 – 2022 key world events
Key world events in 2022
Time Country Event Time Country Event

1/18/2022 Japan BoJ policy decision 6/9/2022 EU ECB policy decision
1/26/2022 US FOMC policy decision 6/15/2022 US FOMC policy decision
2/3/2022 UK BoE policy decision 6/16/2022 UK BoE policy decision
2/3/2022 EU ECB policy decision 6/17/2022 Japan BoJ policy decision
2/5/2022 US Fed Chair Powell’s term expires 7/20/2022 Japan BoJ policy decision
3/3/2022 China China National People’s Congress session 7/21/2022 EU ECB policy decision
3/9/2022 South Korea South Korea Presidential election 7/27/2022 US FOMC policy decision
3/10/2022 EU ECB policy decision 8/4/2022 UK BoE policy decision
3/16/2022 US FOMC policy decisio 9/8/2022 EU ECB policy decision
3/17/2022 UK BoE policy decision 9/15/2022 UK BoE policy decision
3/18/2022 Japan BoJ policy decision 9/21/2022 US FOMC policy decision
3/27/2022 Hong Kong Hong Kong Chief Executive election 9/22/2022 Japan BoJ policy decision
4/4/2022 France France Presidential elections 10/27/2022 EU ECB policy decision
4/14/2022 EU ECB policy decision 10/28/2022 Japan BoJ policy decision
4/28/2022 Japan BoJ policy decision 11/2/2022 US FOMC policy decision
5/4/2022 US FOMC policy decision 11/3/2022 UK BoE policy decision
5/5/2022 UK BoE policy decision 11/8/2022 US US House/Senate elections
12/14/2022 US FOMC policy decision
12/15/2022 EU ECB policy decision
12/15/2022 UK BoE policy decision
12/20/2022 Japan BoJ policy decision

Note: BoJ: Bank of Japan, FOMC: Federal Open Market Committee (US),
BoE: Bank of England, ECB: European Central Bank

IV. Sector outlook and stock recommendations
• Oil & Gas: Oil prices have set a new 5-year high in 2021 and are heading toward to above US$100/barrel, which was in 2013–2014. Oil supply is forecast to increase
slowly, while oil demand is recovering strongly. In November 2021, world demand exceeded 100mn barrels per day.
• Industrial Real Estate: Industrial parks is one of the few sectors that maintained high growth rate in 9M21. Under the positive movement of the industry in 2022,
companies with a P/E ratio below the industry average (26.59x) and a land bank ready to be exploited within the next three years were prioritized.
• Residential Real Estate: In 2022, we forecast that the apartment market in Hanoi will slowly recover. We believe real estate developers will continue to offer
promotions, discounts, and loan support for homebuyers in 2022. Apartment prices in the North in each segment are expected to increase by 5–10% YoY in 2022.
In the South, there will be an acceleration in the apartment market, with nearly 10,000 products opened for sale in 4Q21 or 1Q22 (mainly from the Vinhomes Grand
Park project), equal to that of 9M21.
• Retail & Consumer: The sharp contraction in the last two years creates a low base for momentum. There are a number of factors that could improve consumption
in both the short- and long-term. As social distancing progressively eased from late-September 2021, retail sales are expected to recover, thanks to peak sale-off
season and huge shopping demand for the Tet holiday. During 2020 and 2021, domestic consumption was depressed by economic turbulence, which is expected
to end in 2021. We expect the FY22 profits of food and beverage enterprises to recover to pre-epidemic levels in 2019, showing high growth rates in 2022, from the
low base of 2021.
• Banks: Along with the reopening of Vietnam’s economy since late-September 2021, the last quarter of the year usually records high credit growth. Recently, top-
tier banks — both state- and privately-owned — such as VCB, CTG, BID, TCB, ACB, and VPB, received additional credit growth room. We expect 2021 credit growth
of about 13%, while 2022 credit growth is expected to reach about 12%. The outlooks of both NPL and provisioning will differ. Meanwhile, banks with high
provisioning coverage ratio and robust incomes will be able to maintain the quality of their loan books. In comparison with regional peers, Vietnam banks are
trading at a premium, thanks to exceptional profitability and high growth.
• Steel: According to VSA, finished steel output in October 2021 reached 2.65mn tons (+ 46.2% YoY), thanks to the reopening of the southern market. Finished steel
output in 10M21 reached 24.5mn tons (+33.5% YoY), of which HRC maintained its impressive growth of 117% YoY to reach 10.3mn tons. Exports remain the bright
spot and lead sector’s success. With the capacity reduction of the blast furnaces in Japan and China, the value of Vietnam’s steel exports were maintained above
US$1bn for the fourth month. We assess that the current market prices of NKG, HSG, and HPG have been discounted to attractive levels.
• IT: Information technology spending has recovered. Enterprises with the advantages of consulting capacity and technology products and solutions will maintain
and promote orders from both domestic and foreign markets. Enterprise software and IT services are forecast to record the strongest growth in the industry.
• Utilities: After hitting the bottom in 3Q21 (-2.9% YoY), we expect Vietnam’s electricity production output growth to recover by 4.1% YoY in 4Q21, driving the
growth rate to 3.9% YoY in FY21. For FY22, we forecast electricity consumption to improve by at least 8.6% YoY to meet a GDP growth rate target of 6.5%, in
accordance with Resolution No. 99/NQ-CP. Thermal power and renewable energy will benefit from the upturn, while hydropower will see a decrease in the volume
and proportion of overall production, due to unfavorable hydrology.
• Textile: Demand in major export markets recorded a strong recovery, especially in 2Q21, when countries completely lifted blockade measures. In 2022, with a
Covid-19 vaccination rate above 70% of the population in most major markets, we expect textile consumption to continue to recover. FTAs (CPTPP, EVFTA) continue
to bring benefits.
• Seaport: Export-Import activities and port clearance will see good growth, as 1) manufacturing activity recovers and adapts to Covid-19; and 2) the economy in
main export markets of Vietnam has recovered. After plummeting in August and September, due to blockade measures, the October IIP showed sign of recovery,
as the decline rate was only -1.59% YoY and PMI also recovered above 50.

Stock recommendations
Investment themes Industry 12-month target price (VND) and potential upside
PVT GAS PVD PVS
Commodity price Oil & Gas 38,400 154,200 38,500 35,900

63% 55% 50% 45%
NTC SIP SZC
Post-Covid-19 demand Industrial Park 279,600 207,500 69,300
47% 37% 26%
KHG VHM NVL
Post-Covid-19 demand Real Estate 27,200 107,000 131,700
32% 26% 20%

NAF MWG MSN
Post-Covid-19 demand Retail & Consumer 35,800 169,300 179,000
32% 23% 17%
TCB SHB VPB VCB
Post-Covid-19 demand Banks 68,000 28,550 44,900 112,600
30% 18% 17% 11%
HPG HSG NKG
Public investment Materials 59,100 47,400 49,100
22% 22% 16%

FPT PC1
Others 113,300 44,000
15% 15%
Source: Mirae Asset Vietnam Research (closing prices on November 29, 2021)

Oil & Gas – Back from the abyss
Oil price outlook • Since beginning-FY21, oil and natural gas prices have increased by 111% and 70%, respectively. Oil prices have set a
new 5-year high and are heading toward to above US$100/barrel, which was in 2013–2014.
• Oil supply is forecast to increase slowly, as: 1) the US and China reached an agreement at COP26 to reduce the use of
fossil fuels; and 2) OPEC+ have agreed to stick to their oil production plan and not boost production levels. At the
same time, oil demand is recovering strongly. In November 2021, world demand exceeded 100mn barrels per day.
• According to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), oil demand will reach 96.58mn barrels per day by end-
FY21 and total supply will be 95.44mn barrels per day, resulting in a shortage of more than 1mn barrels per day. If
OPEC continues to delay increasing output, the scarcity is about to get worse. We anticipate that oil prices will remain
high in 2022.
Brent crude oil price in 2013–2021 (US$/barrel) Global oil supply-and-demand 2019–2030 (mn barrels/day)
110.00
140
105.00
120
100.00
100
80 95.00
60 90.00
40 85.00
20 80.00
2019 2020 2021 2022F 2023F 2024F 2025F 2026F 2027F 2028F 2029F 2030F
0
Supply Consumption
01/2013 01/2014 01/2015 01/2016 01/2017 01/2018 01/2019 01/2020 01/2021
Source: Mirae Asset Vietnam Research, Bloomberg Source: Mirae Asset Vietnam Research, EIA

Oil & Gas – Back from the abyss
Upstream
Opportunities by • The average break-even point of offshore oil and gas projects in East Asia is about US$55/barrel. Therefore, at the
value chain current price, we expect exploration and exploitation projects to be restarted in 2022. Businesses providing contract
drilling, construction services, floating warehouses are expected to get new contracts with higher value.
• Large domestic projects are expected to accelerate implementation, in which the Block B - O Mon project is showing
positive signs. Listed companies operating in this segment include PVD and PVS. In addition, GAS is investing in the
Su Tu Trang project.
Midstream
• Oil and gas transportation is entering a growth phase:
o Oil transportation demand in 2022 will increase as the demand for petroleum and petrochemical products
from Dung Quat and Nghi Son projects recovers. From 2023, the operation of the Long Son oil refinery project
will continue to increase transportation demand.
o LPG import demand is predicted to increase by 20–22% YoY in 2021–2025.
o Import demand for LNG will drive the construction of the storage system. By end-2025, four more LNG projects
will start construction, in which the LNG Thi Vai Phase 2 and Son My LNG project Phase 1 will be invested in by
GAS.
• PVT holds major domestic crude oil and LPG transportation market share, while PVS is likely to continue to win
contracts for LNG storage projects.
Downstream
• The trend of limiting coal-fired power has forced the government to pay more attention to the development of gas-
fired power projects. A series of gas-fired power projects are being implemented, such as Nhon Trach 3&4 (running
in 2023–2024), Hiep Phuoc (2022), and Son My 1&2 (2025). By 2027, 17,600 MW gas-fired power capacity will be added
to the Vietnam power generation system .
• Demand for fertilizer products results in steady gas demand in this industry.
• Demand for electricity, petroleum and gas is projected to increase as the economy recovers.
• Companies specializing in the construction and installation of power projects (PVS, PXS) may win new contracts. Gas
and petroleum distributors are expected to recover strongly from the bottom, such as CNG, PGS, ASP, and PLX.
Update progress of major domestic projects

Project Life cycle Investment First gas Progress
Su Tu Trang Phase 2
15 - 20 years US$2bn 2024 - Completed phase 2A with a total investment of about US$138mn
(Block 15-1)
- Waiting for approval of final investment decision from the Prime Minister
Block B O Mon 20 years US$8.1bn 4Q24
- Downstream projects (power plants) are being accelerated to fix outstanding problems
- The parties are negotiating a gas sale agreement
Blue Whale 25 years US$10bn 2024
- However, the implementation progress is continuously delayed
Nguồn: Phòng phân tích Mirae Asset Việt Nam
Ken Bau 25 years n/a 2028 - PVD is conducting exploratory drilling

Petrovietnam Transportation Corporation (PVT VN)
Growth phase
Investment points
• The largest oil and gas transportation company in Vietnam: Transportation market share of 100% crude
(Maintain) BUY
oil, about 30% oil products and 100% LPG in the domestic market. PVT owns 36 ships, including crude oil
tankers, oil product/chemical vessels, LPG ships, and bulk carriers, with total tonnage of more than 1mn DWT.
Target price • In 9M21, PVT has invested in five ships, including three oil/chemical tankers, one super-large LPG vessel
38,400 (VLGC) and one bulk carrier, with total investment of VND1,600bn. The company is considering investing in an
(VND, 12M)
old VLCC tanker for the Nghi Son project, replacing the leased Pis Pioneer vessel of the Korean partner. The
expected price will range from US$40–60mn for this investment.
Current price
23,600 • The Nghi Son project facilitates crude oil transportation growth: PVT's crude oil transportation segment is
(11/29/21) still mainly serving the Binh Son factory because the Nghi Son plant has not been put into stable operation. In
2022, the stable operation of Nghi Son plant will help revenue in this segment to grow by 15% YoY.
• LPG demand is the key growth driver: LPG transportation grew strongly in 2021. In 1H21, before being
Expected return 63%
affected by Covid-19, the revenue growth of LPG segment increased by 33% YoY. The main factors will
maintain strong growth of the LPG segment, including: 1) investment in one VLGC vessel; 2) growing LPG
NPAT (21F, VNDbn) 720 demand.
Market consensus (21F, VNDbn) NA • Exceeding FY21 plan after ten months: In 10M21, the company reached revenue of VND6,100bn, completing
102% of the year plan; consolidated profit before tax reached VND800bn, completing 160% of the year plan.
EPS Growth (21F, %) 14 We forecast PVT will reach VND7,530bn of revenue and VND720bn of NPATMI (+7.6% YoY) and EPS of
VND2,225/share in FY21.
P/E (21F, x) 10.6
• Valuation: Based on FCFF method with WACC of 7.84%, the fair price of PVT will be at VND38,400 per share.
Market Cap (VNDbn) 7,638 We recommend Buy for PVT stock.
Outstanding shares (mn) 324 FY (31/12) 12/18 12/19 12/20 12/21F 12/22F 12/23F
Free float (%) 48.9 Revenue (VNDbn) 7,523 7,758 7,383 7,530 8,283 9,112
Operating profit (VNDbn) 802 928 854 1,043 1,249 1,343
Foreign Ownership (%) 13.9
Operating profit margin (%) 10.7 12.0 11.6 13.8 15.1 14.7
52-week low (VND) 12,350 NPAT (VNDbn) 652 690 669 720 856 933
52-week high (VND) 27,550 EPS (VND) 1,898 2,017 1,946 2,225 2,644 2,881
ROE (%) 15.9 15.5 13.6 10.92 11.59 11.26
(%) 1M 6M 12M
P/E (x) 14.8 12.4 13.0 10.6 9.45 8.68
Absolute -4.4 19.0 90.0 P/B (x) 2.0 1.8 1.6 1.2 1.0 0.9
Relative -7.5 11.0 43.0 Source: Bloomberg, Mirae Asset Vietnam Research

PetroVietnam Gas JSC (GAS VN)
Industry leader
Investment points
(Maintain) BUY • Profits increased during the outbreak: The average Brent oil price in 3Q21 increased by US$30.57/barrel
(+71% YoY), leading to a 19% YoY rise in net profit after tax (NPAT). Particularly, GAS recorded revenue of
VND18,543bn (+16.3% YoY), profit before tax (PBT) of VND3,084bn (+18% YoY), and NPAT of VND2,464bn (+19%
Target price YoY).
154,200
(VND, 12M) • Investment process accelerated, long-term debt rose sharply: In 9M21, the parent company disbursed
VND3,546bn (mainly for the Nam Con Son and LNG Thi Vai projects); the whole group disbursed VND3,992bn
of investment capital. Excluding the Block B-O Mon gas pipeline project (which is being operated by PVN), the
Current price
99,400 disbursement of the parent company reached 101% of the 9M21 plan.
(11/29/21)
• By end-3Q21, long-term loans had increased by nearly VND5,000bn YTD, reaching VND6,916bn, to prepare for
a new investment cycle. Total capital needs are expected to be US$3.9bn for four major projects, namely Nam
Expected return 55% Con Son 2 (phase 2), LNG Thi Vai (phases 1 and 2), Block B, and LNG Son My.
• With a large amount of cash, GAS can continue to invest in PVN's gas projects. GAS has invested US$500mn in
Phase 2 of the Su Tu Trang project, holding 25% of the project’s stake. The project completed Phase 2A and
NPAT (21F, VNDbn) 9,275
supplied gas from June 2021. Continuing to invest in new gas fields, which are being developed for energy
Market consensus (21F, VNDbn) NA security purposes, will help GAS consolidate its leading position in Vietnam's gas industry.
EPS Growth (21F, %) 24.6

• Valuation: The target price is based on the P/E comparison method, using the company’s past P/E
performance as reference. For 2022, we forecast NPAT to reach VND11,043bn, with EPS of VND5,770/share, a
P/E (21F, x) 20.5 target P/E +2std of 26.73x. Based on that, we arrived at an expected share price of VND154,200.
Market Cap (VNDbn) 190,246
Outstanding shares (mn) 1,914
Free float (%) 4.2

FY (31/12) 12/18 12/19 12/20 12/21F 12/22F 12/23F
Foreign Ownership (%) 2.8 Revenue (VNDbn) 75,612 75,005 64,135 73,773 77,461 85,207
Operating profit (VNDbn) 14,581 15,072 9,923 10,838 12,866 13,240

52-week low (VND) 71,300
52-week high (VND) 125,000
NPAT (VNDbn) 11,454 11,902 7,855 9,275 11,043 11,436
(%) 1M 6M 12M EPS (VND) 5,911 6,142 4,028 4,846 5,770 5,975
Absolute -18.4 8.3 18.6 ROE (%) 26.1 25.1 15.9 18.8 20.5 18.8
P/E (x) 14.7 15.3 22.0 20.5 16.3 15.8

Relative -21.6 0.2 -28.7
P/B (x) 3.7 3.7 3.5 3.4 3.0 2.7
Source: Bloomberg, Mirae Asset Vietnam Research

PetroVietnam Drilling & Well Services Corporation (PVD VN)
On the threshold of recovery
Investment points
(Maintain) BUY • PVD is currently managing and operating six rigs:
o PVD I jack-up rig: Drilling for Vietsopetro from September 2021 at Block 09-1 (two wells and an optional
repair well);
Target price
38,500 o PVD II jack-up rig: Drilling four wells for Hoang Long JOC until December 2021;
(VND, 12M)
o PVD III jack-up rig: Drilling for Repsol from October 2021;
o TAD PVD V: Drilling for Shell Brunei from October 2021 under a 6-year contract and can be extended for
Current price another two years;
25,700
(11/29/21) o PVD VI jack-up rig: Drilling for Thang Long JOC;
o Land rig PVD 11: Working at Algeria from 2Q20.
Expected return 50% • In 3Q21, a positive signal appeared as the jack-up rig utilization rate (owned by PVD) reached 88% (3Q20:
55%). Oil price increased strongly in 3Q21 to around US$70/barrel, which is a key factor to support PVD's
business. Based on a long-term drilling contract of TAD PVD V in Brunei, we forecast a strong return in 2022.
NPAT (21F, VNDbn) 64
• In 2021, we estimate the company will reach NPAT of VND64bn, equivalent to 34.7% of its 2020 performance.
Market consensus (21F, VNDbn) NA However, for 2022, NPAT is forecast to increase sharply to VND400bn (+525% YoY), reaching its highest point
since 2016.
EPS Growth (21F, %) -66
• Valuation: We expect oil price to remain above US$70/barrel and reactivate the rig rental market, allowing
P/E (21F, x) 169 PVD's rigs to be more efficient. PVD's valuation is expected to reach 1.2x book value (BV), implying a 12-month
target price of VND38,500 per share.
Market Cap (VNDbn) 10,823
Outstanding shares (mn) 421 FY (31/12) 12/17 12/18 12/19 12/20 12/21F 12/22F
Operating profit (VNDbn) (471) 92 71 174 80 451
52-week low (VND) 13,000 NPAT (VNDbn) 35 172 172 186 64 400
52-week high (VND) 32,100 EPS (VND) 74 396 304 442 152 1,001
ROE (%) 0.2 1.1 0.9 1.3 0.5 2.9
(%) 1M 6M 12M
P/E (x) 441.7 83.6 100.2 67.0 169.0 29.6
Absolute 0.7 14.2 110.6 P/B (x) 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9
Relative -2.5 6.1 63.4 Source: Financial statements, Mirae Asset Securities Vietnam Research

PetroVietnam Technical Services Corporation (PVS VN)
Reaching out to the global market
Investment points
(Maintain) BUY
PVS is a subsidiary of Vietnam Oil and Gas Group (PVN), specializing in three business segments: 1) Floating
Storage Services (FSO/FPSO); 2) Mechanical & Construction; and 3) Supply Base Services. In addition, there are
other activities, such as marine services, repair and maintenance services, and ROV.
Target price
35,900 FSO/FPSO: In 9M21, this segment recorded a strong recovery, with VND506bn in profit (+308% YoY) from joint
(VND, 12M)
ventures. The sharp increase in oil prices from 2Q21 could help to improve the rental price of PVS's floating
storage. PVS can gain VND700bn in profit from joint ventures, mainly from leasing six floating storage units,
Current price helping to contribute to stable earnings for the company.
24,800
(11/29/21) Mechanical & Construction: 2021 is the low-income year of this segment as current projects are in the final
stages which generate low revenue, while new contracts are negotiating. However, the company has won large
contracts such as: (1) EPCI of Gallaf project - Phase 3, package 05 worth about US$400mn; (2) Hai Long 2&3
Expected return 45% offshore wind power project (Taiwan) - the first project of PVS in renewable market. In addition, the company will
participate in other large-scale domestic projects such as: the Nhon Trach 3&4 thermal power plant, the La Gan
wind power project... In this segment, PVS is currently the leading domestic enterprise.
NPAT (21F, VNDbn) 707
Supply Base Services: This segment will continue to generate stable revenue for the company.
Market consensus (21F, VNDbn) NA
A 35% YoY increase in FY22 NPAT: In 2021, we forecast the company will reach VND707bn of NPAT (+13% YoY).
EPS Growth (21F, %) 41 From 2022 to 2023, high oil prices will result in the implementation of large projects, which help PVS to grow
NPAT by 35% YoY to VND955bn in FY22 and by 73% YoY to VND1,653bn in FY23.
P/E (21F, x) 19.91
Valuation: Based on FCFF with WACC of 10.14%, the fair price of PVS will be at VND35,900/share. We recommend
Market Cap (VNDbn) 11,949 Buy for PVS stock.
Outstanding shares (mn) 478 FY (31/12) 12/18 12/19 12/20 12/21F 12/22F 12/23F
Operating profit (VNDbn) 1,535 1,206 310 903 1,027 1,931
52-week low (VND) 14,000 NPAT (VNDbn) 1,047 1,033 624 707 955 1,653
ROE (%) 8.2 6.7 4.1 10.92 6.98 11.29
(%) 1M 6M 12M
P/E (x) 8.7 10.3 17.0 19.91 12.51 7.23
Absolute -12.6 10.6 68.9 P/B (x) 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.9 0.9 0.8
Relative -16.8 0.7 22.7 Source: Financial statements, Mirae Asset Securities Vietnam Research

Industrial park – Positive movement
9M21 overview Industrial park overview
• In 9M21, there were 41 projects to build or expand industrial park infrastructure, which were approved in principle
investment by the Prime Minister with total area of about 7,670 ha.
• FDI’s project: In 9M21, 453 new projects and 590 capital-increasing projects were attracted to Vietnam, with total
registered capital of US$10.2bn (+8.7% YoY).
• Domestic project: There were 435 new projects and 160 capital-increasing projects with total registered capital of
around VND189.5tn (+7.2% YoY).
Rental prices in the North maintained an upward trend, yet in the South were restrained by the pandemic
• Thanks to the remarkable control of the pandemic, industrial zones in the North have returned to operate since July
2021. They benefited from the temporary supply shortage of the southern region due to the pandemic. As a result, the
rental prices of the North's industrial parks continued to grow by 6.1% YoY in 3Q21 (according to JLL) and around 21.3%
YoY in 9M21.
• Meanwhile, the pandemic has restrained the business activities of industrial zones in the southern provinces in the
third quarter. In 9M21, rental prices inched up by only 7.3% YoY (according to JLL). Industrial parks in the South are
expected to be active again, as distancing measures are eased.
Demand for ready-built factories and warehouses increasing: This segment has experienced impressive growth in
recent years, with an average supply growth rate of over 25% in the period of 2018–2020. In 9M21, due to the impact of the
pandemic, supply grew only 6.4% YoY.
Industrial park rental price in 3Q21 Industrial park supply in 3Q21 Ready-built factories supply in 3Q21 (North and South)
350 14000 100% m2

6,000,000
300 12000
US$/m2/lease cycle
80% 5,000,000
250 10000
200 8000 60% 4,000,000
ha
150 6000 40% 3,000,000

100 4000
20% 2,000,000
50 2000
0 0 0% 1,000,000
Ha Noi
Dong Nai
Long An
BR-VT
Hai Phong
TP HCM
Binh Duong
Bac Ninh
Hai Duong
Hung Yen
High leasing price Low Leasing price Supply Occupancy Rate
Source: CBRE, JLL, Mirae Asset Vietnam Research Source: CBRE, JLL, Mirae Asset Vietnam Research Source: CBRE, Mirae Asset Vietnam Research

Industrial park – Positive movement
Thriving during the Listed industrial park companies’ earnings after-tax were strong growth of 38.7% YoY in 9M21
pandemic • Industrial real estate is one of the few sectors to maintain high growth rates in 9M21. Excluding VGC, with main
revenue generated from material segment, in 9M21, the revenue of listed industrial zone real estate enterprises
soared by 9.4% YoY and NPAT surged by 38.7% YoY.
• Operating profit margin grew from 14.05% in 9M20 to 18.81% in 9M21, driven by surging rental prices and improved
financial income. Powered by the expanding OP margin, companies recorded excellent NPAT.
Companies with available land for lease will continue to benefit from the promising industry prospects
• Amid the positive movement of the industry in 2022, businesses with ready-to-exploit land banks will maintain their
growth momentum. We prioritized companies with a P/E ratio below the industry average (26.59x) and a land bank
ready to be exploited in the next three years. The stocks that meet the above conditions are SZC, NTC, and SIP.
Financial Financial Operation Operation

Revenue Revenue NPATMI NPATMI
Ticker Company name Listing +/- Income Income +/- Profit Profit +/- +/- EPS ROE P/B P/E
9M20 9M21 9M20 9M21
9M20 9M21 9M20 9M21
BCM Becamex IDC HOSE 5,210 3,853 -26.0% 28 56 99.2% 1,448 1,330 -8.1% 1,184 988 -16.6% 1,702 0.11 3.67 31.78
KBC Kinh Bac city HOSE 930 3,077 231.0% 44 111 151.4% 164 1,069 550.7% 30 572 1802.9% 1,546 0.06 1.69 31.36
Sai Gon VRG Investment
SIP UPCOM 3,417 4,129 20.8% 403 292 -27.6% 839 905 8.0% 631 679 7.7% 11,832 0.35 5.08 13.12
Corporation
IDC IDICO HNX 3,357 3,210 -4.4% 110 421 281.3% 330 660 99.7% 214 454 112.2% 1,805 0.12 6.22 46.59
TID Tin Nghia Corporation UPCOM 5,560 4,895 -11.9% 76 166 118.8% 72 273 277.2% 72 240 233.1% 1,306 0.07 6.01 48.55
Tan Tao Investment and
ITA HOSE 549 665 21.2% 3 2 -25.9% 206 212 2.9% 184 173 -6.1% 173 0.02 0.94 63.10
Industry Corporation
Thanh Le General Import-
TLP Export Trading UPCOM 6,991 8,311 18.9% 7 13 72.0% -89 58 65.6% -104 46 -144.5% 698 0.06 1.36 20.15
Corporation
SONADEZI Chau Duc
SZC HOSE 362 566 56.1% 16 9 -46.8% 190 311 63.4% 162 256 57.5% 2,792 0.21 3.88 19.41
Shareholding Company
Nam Tan Uyen Joint Stock
NTC UPCOM 195 165 -15.4% 172 157 -9.1% 282 247 -12.4% 239 212 -11.3% 10,569 0.33 6.12 17.91
Company
LHG Long Hau Corporation HOSE 460 718 56.1% 23 25 6.1% 166 341 105.9% 134 271 101.8% 6,724 0.25 1.70 7.29
Sonadezi Long Thanh
SZL HOSE 264 294 11.6% 28 14 -51.1% 91 94 3.5% 73 76 4.3% 5,776 0.19 2.07 11.08
Shareholding Company
IDV VPID - JSC HNX 111 95 -14.4% 34 47 35.0% 153 141 -8.2% 136 133 -2.2% 7,850 0.32 2.63 8.76
TOTAL 27,405 29,979 9.4% 947 1,312 38.5% 3,853 5,641 46.4% 2,956 4,100 38.7%
Source: FiinPro, Mirae Asset Vietnam Research

Nam Tan Uyen Joint Stock Company (NTC VN)
A step forward with NTC3 project
Investment points
An outstanding business at Binh Duong province: NTC is a GVR subsidiary with an outstanding business
(Maintain) BUY
performance. Since its establishment in 2006, NTC has leased out 229 ha in the NTC1 Industrial Park and 288 ha of
land in the NTC2 Industrial Park (Expansion Project) after only 10 years of operation.
Target price NTC3 project will provide growth momentum: Following previous successes, NTC carried out the 346 ha NTC3
279,600
(VND, 12M) expansion project in 2016. After receiving the land in the 2019–2020 period, NTC3's investment and development
process has been completed. The project is expected to be put into operation in 2022. With a commercial land
Current price area of 288.52 ha and an estimated rental price in this area of around US$100–110/m2/lease cycle, we believe that
190,500 NTC is capable of leasing its entire NTC3 land bank within five years and generating total revenue of nearly
(11/29/21)
VND7,400bn. NTC has paid off most of the loan for the NTC3 project, currently the company’s only loan.
It is worth noting that NTC's balance sheet has several valuable assets, such as:
Expected return 47%
• Extremely high amount of cash: The company has charter capital of only VND240bn, but VND1,280bn in cash
and bank deposits.
NPAT (21F, VND bn) 261
• Long-term financial investment portfolio of 10 businesses, with a total initial investment value of VND374bn. Of
Concensus (21F, VND bn) n/a this, NH3 and SIP have market value of VND1,381bn and a surplus of VND1,253bn.
EPS growth (21F, %) -10 High dividend payout ratio: Cash dividend remains above 80% of charter capital (equivalent to 65–73% of NPAT),
indicating NTC’s healthy business performance and strong cash flow.
P/E (21F, x) 17.6
Valuation: Using the RNAV method, we determine a target price for NTC of VND279,600/share.
Market cap (VND bn) 4,596
Outstanding (mn) 24 FY (31/12) 12/20 12/21F 12/22F 12/23F
Free float (%) 20.1 Revenue (VND bn) 264 211 238 293
OP (VDN bn) 344 326 386 477
Foreign ownership(%) 2.3
OP margin (%) 130.5 154.5 162.4 162.8
52 week-high (VND) 165,100 NPAT (VND bn) 291 261 309 381
52 week-low (VND) 288,400 EPS (VND) 12,123 10,860 12,878 15,895

ROE (%) 46.04 35.16 36.60 42.04
(%) 1M 6M 12M
P/E (x) 15.80 17.63 14.87 12.05
Absolute 12.0 -3.9 -12.2 P/B (x) 6.7 5.7 5.2 5.0
Relative 8.7 -12.1 -59.5 Source: Bloomberg, Mirae Asset Vietnam Research

Sai Gon VRG Investment Corporation (SIP VN)
Benefiting from large land bank and strong balance sheet
Investment points
SIP is one of the largest listed industrial park developers in the South. SIP is currently managing a land bank of
about 4,500 ha of industrial parks and residential areas in major areas, such as Ho Chi Minh City, Tay Ninh, and
(Maintain) BUY Dong Nai provinces. The company's main projects are:
• Phuoc Dong Industrial Park - Urban - Service Project: Located in Go Dau and Trang Bang, Tay Ninh. This is
SIP's largest project, with an industrial area of 2,190 ha and residential area of 647.99 ha in a complex of 3,285
Target price ha. The project’s Phase 1 has been deployed, with an area of 1,096 ha and an occupancy rate of 92%. Phase 2
207,500 is in compensation for site clearance. The current rental price is about US$40/m2/remaining lease term.
(VND, 12M)
• Dong Nam - Cu Chi Industrial Park Project, Ho Chi Minh City: The total area is 342.53 ha, comprising of
286.76 ha of industrial park and 55.77 ha of residential area. The occupancy rate of the industrial park is nearly
Current price 80%, while the urban project is expected to be deployed in the period of 2023–2025. The rental price ranged
151,000
(11/29/21) around US$90-100/m2/remaining lease term.
• Le Minh Xuan 3 Industrial Park - Binh Chanh, Ho Chi Minh City: The total area of industrial land is 250 ha,
with an occupancy rate of 30%. In addition, there is a residential area of 80 ha that is expected to be
Expected return 37% developed in 2022–2024. The current rental price of industrial land is approximately US$160/m2/remaining
lease term.
NPAT (21F, VND bn) 871 • Loc An - Binh Son - Long Thanh Industrial Park Project, Dong Nai: Located near Long Thanh International
Airport, the project has a total area of 497.77 ha and an occupancy rate of more than 70%. The current rental
Consensus (21F, VND bn) n/a price is about US$70/m2/remaining lease term.
EPS growth (21F, %) -15 With the large land fund, SIP's long-term prospects are bright, as the company: 1) has a strong balance sheet,
with cash and equivalents of more than VND4,000bn to finance the land bank development; and 2) benefits from
P/E (21F, x) 16.1 infrastructure projects to connect Ho Chi Minh City to other provinces, such as the Long Thanh International
Airport and the Ho Chi Minh City - Moc Bai highway.
Valuation: Based on the RNAV method, we determined SIP’s target price at VND207,500/share.
Shareoutstanding (mn) 93 12/20 12/21F 12/22F 12/23F
FY (31/12)
Free float (%) 64.5 Revenue (VNDbn) 5,083 6,392 6,414 6,460
Foreign ownership (%) 0.8 OP (VNDbn) 1,306 1,134 1,098 1,151
OP margin (%) 25.7 17.7 17.1 17.8

NPAT (VND bn) 1,026 871 840 882
EPS (VND) 12,917 9,375 9,041 9,493
(%) 1M 6M 12M ROE (%) 44.34 29.67 28.01 29.43
Absolute 7.6 1.5 29.1 P/E (x) 12.00 16.1 16.9 16.1
Relative 4.3 -6.6 -18.3 P/B (x) 4.5 3.9 4.3 3.9

SONADEZI Chau Duc Shareholding Company (SZC VN)
Time goes by, value goes high
Investment points
(Maintain) BUY Excellent results despite the pandemic: In 3Q21, SZC's sales activities were interrupted by the Covid-19
outbreak. However, 1H21 land lease contracts helped the company to record robust revenue.
Cooperating with other developers to develop the land products of Huu Phuoc residential area project
Target price phase 1: In July 2021, the first sale of the Huu Phuoc residential area project was performed under an investment
69,300
(VND, 12M) cooperation contract. The contract has an implementation period of 12 months, with four payments for the
clearance land. Industrial Urban Development JSC No. 2 (D2D) also participated in this investment. With a
payment of VND113bn in the third quarter of 2021, D2D is expected to invest in 40 townhouses.
Current price
55,200 The remaining commercial land fund by end-2021 is estimated to be more than 900 ha, comprising a 700 ha
(11/29/21)
industrial park and 537 ha residential area (commercial rate of about 40%). SZC currently owns the largest
available land bank in Ba Ria – Vung Tau (BR-VT) province. The prospects for this area are promising, thanks to
Expected return 26% the construction of crucial infrastructure projects, such as: 1) Long Thanh International Airport; 2) Cai Mep port
cluster; and 3) Bien Hoa - Vung Tau Expressway Project. With competitive rental prices compared with that of My
Xuan district (BR-VT), SZC remains confident of increasing land prices.
NPAT (21F, VND bn) 277
Upbeat earnings growth from 2022: In 2021, the company's revenue is expected to be VND585bn (+35% YoY),
Consensus (21F, VND bn) n/a while NPAT will reach VND277bn (+49% YoY). On the expectation of the pandemic being under control, we
forecast that SZC's 2022 revenue will grow by 120% YoY to VND1,286bn, helping NPAT to soar by 117% YoY to
EPS growth (21F, %) 49 VND601bn.
P/E (21F, x) 19.8 Valuation: Based on the positive trend in rental price and sales activities in the BR-VT area, we revalue SZC based
on the RNAV and P/B methods. The fair value per share of SZC is adjusted to VND69,300 from VND49,100.
Share outstanding (mn) 100 FY (31/12) 12/18 12/19 12/20 12/21F 12/22F 12/23F
Revenue (VND bn) 290 329 433 585 1,286 1,415
Free float (%) 42.3
OP (VND bn) 111 139 213 346 751 781
Foreign ownership(%) 3.1
OP margin (%) 38.2 42.2 49.2 59.2 58.4 55.2
52-week low (VND) 28,100 NPAT (VND bn) 97 134 186 277 601 625
EPS (VND) 779 1,140 1,860 2,766 6,006 6,250

ROE (%) 6.8 9.7 15.3 19.84 36.81 33.78
(%) 1M 6M 12M 15.5 21.24 19.8 9.1 8.7
P/E (x)
Absolute 0.3 56.7 108.6 P/B (x) 1.5 3.1 2.7 2.2 2.0

Real estate – Opportunity ahead
Recovery in the North Apartment market
• The number of new apartment sales decreased by 46.8% YoY in 9M21 to only about 1,400 units. There will be an
addition of 2,600 units to the market in 4Q21, bringing the total supply in 2021 to 11,400 (-25.3% YoY). In 2022, we
forecast that the apartment market in Hanoi will recover slowly, affected by fears of the pandemic’s return.
• Asking prices only increased by a modest 1–2% YoY in 9M21; however, the average selling price in the market
increased by about 10% YoY, as most of the projects for sale are high-end, while the affordable segment was mostly
sold out. We believe real estate developers will continue to offer promotions, discounts, and loan support for
homebuyers in 2022. Apartment prices in the North in each segment are expected to increase by 5–10% YoY in 2022.
Retail market
• The retail market fared better, with an occupancy rate of over 90% in 9M21. However, we believe that supply will start
to exceed demand in FY22, as: 1) the opening plans of some shopping centers are likely to be pushed to 2022, due to
the unpredictable pandemic; and 2) more than 40,000 m2 will be added from Vincom Smart City in Hanoi in 4Q21,
increasing the total floor area to 1mn m2.
• We forecast the rental retail asking price (currently around US$50/m2) will continue to stay flat in the near future,
despite increasing supply, as: 1) the rental price has already dropped significantly since the beginning of 2021, due to
the 4th wave of the pandemic; and 2) shopping demand may increase again, after a long period of social distancing.
New apartment supply in Hanoi (‘000 units) Retail supply in Hanoi (‘000 m2)
45 1000
40 900
35 800
700
30
600
25
500
20
400
15
300
10
200
5 100
0 0
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Source: Mirae Asset Vietnam Research Source: Mirae Asset Vietnam Research

Real estate – Opportunity ahead (cont’d.)
Apartment market
Acceleration in the
• The number of apartments opened for sale in the South in 9M21 continued to dry up (-67% YoY, and the lowest since
South 2014), partly because the pandemic greatly affected the opening plans of completed projects and delayed the
construction of the remaining ones. There will be nearly 10,000 products opened for sale in 4Q21 or 1Q22 (mainly
from the Vinhomes Grand Park project), equal to that of 9M21.
• Apartment prices in Ho Chi Minh City in 9M21 rose by 10% YoY (average price of VND60mn/m2), due to limited supply,
despite reduced housing demand due to the the pandemic. In particular, we saw a sharp increase in apartment
prices in many suburban areas in 2021. It is expected that housing prices in Ho Chi Minh City and surrounding areas
in 2022 will continue to increase slightly, thanks to: 1) limited supply; and 2) increasing construction material prices.
Retail market
• The rental market in Ho Chi Minh City was severely affected by the 4th outbreak of Covid-19, in which most shopping
centers had to shut down for more than three months. This also seriously affected the opening schedules of many
shopping centers, such as Socar Mall (40,000 m2); Central Mall East Saigon (39,000 m2); Sense City in District 9 (50,000
m2); and Elite Mall in District 8 (42,000 m2). We expect that when the city begins “the new normal”, the above
shopping centers will start opening in the first half of 2022, providing more than 216,000 m2 of floor area for the city.
• Due to social distancing measures and many support programs from shopping centers, the average downtown
rental price fell significantly, by 20–25% YoY, while the average rental price in surrounding areas fell by only 10–15%
YoY. However, we think this trend will not last long, and rental prices will remain flat or recover slightly.
New apartment supply in HCMC (‘000 units) Retail supply in HCMC (‘000 m2)
45 1200
40
1000
35
30 800
25
600
20
15 400
10
200
5
0 0
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Source: Mirae Asset Vietnam Research

Khai Hoan Land Real Estate JSC (KHG VN) Top pick
Reaching new heights
Investment points
(Maintain) BUY • Leading the Southern region with a market share of over 20% (and nearly 30% market share in the primary
brokerage segment in 2020), KHG is the main partner for many big projects in the South, such as Vinhomes
Central Park, Vinhomes Grand Park, Sunshine Diamond River, as well as projects of other big investors, such
Target price as GS, Masterise Homes, and Keppel Land.
27,200
(VND, 12M) • KHG is implementing four real estate projects in the South, mainly in Nha Be district, Ba Ria - Vung Tau, Long
An provinces, and the Phu Quoc tourist city. These projects will start to record revenue from 2023 to 2026 and
in subsequent years.
Current price
20,650 • Notably, La Partenza project has seen huge bookings by customers who have deposited 60% of the total value
(11/29/21)
of their apartments, while the market price has increased to over VND40mn/m2. KHG plans to hand over La
Partenza from end-2023 and start to record cash flow at the same time.
Expected return 32% • KHG is also the exclusive distributor of three projects of T&T Group: T&T City Millennia project (in Long Hau,
Can Giuoc, Long An), T&T Pho Noi, and T&T DC Complex (in Hoang Mai, Hanoi). We believe these projects have
great potential, as they are in beautiful locations with reasonable prices and fine legal status.
NP (21F, VND bn) 413
Valuation
Consensus NP (21F, VND bn) n/a
We recommend Buy for KHG, with a target price of VND27,200. We believe KHG is currently undervalued, thanks
EPS Growth (21F, %) 333.4 to: 1) better-than-expected 3Q21 business results; 2) potential real estate projects for over 800 ha of clean land
bank; and 3) a promising brokerage segment, thanks to increasing demand for real estate after the pandemic.
P/E (21F, x) 8.7
Shares outstanding (mn) 175 FY (31/12) 12/19 12/20 12/21F 12/22F 12/23F
Revenue (VND bn) 137 303 1,420 4,736 8,110
Free float (%) 24.5
OP (VND bn) (10) 99 517 1,743 2,632
Foreign ownership (%) 0.06 OP margin (%) (7.3) 32.8 36.4 36.8 32.4
52-week low 13,050 NPAT (VND bn) 10 97 413 1,394 2,102
EPS (VND) 85 709 2,364 4,372 3,211
52-week high 23,700
ROE (%) 6.4 8.8% 22.8% 25.6%
(%) 1M 6M 12M P/E (x) - - 8.7 4.7 6.4
Absolute 18.3 - - P/B (x) - - 1.9 1.4 2.2
Relative 15.0 - - Source: Bloomberg, Mirae Asset Vietnam Research

Vinhomes JSC (VHM VN) Top pick
Maintaining leadership position
Investment points
(Maintain) BUY • In 9M21, VHM achieved VND61.7tn in revenue (+25% YoY) and VND27.1tn in net profit (+66% YoY). Notably,
gross profit margin increased from 37% to 56%, thanks to bulk sales at Vinhomes Ocean Park and Vinhomes
Smart City.
Target price
107,000 • We expect continued positive business results in 4Q21 and early-2022, based on bulk sales from three big
(VND, 12M)
projects, including Vinhomes Ocean Park, Vinhomes Smart City, and Vinhomes Grand Park. The online sales
system has made it easier to conduct sales activities during the pandemic period. In addition, industrial areas
Current price in Quang Ninh and Hai Phong will get approval in principle in the upcoming months.
84,800
(11/29/21) • We forecast VND83,429bn in revenue (+16.6% YoY) and VND31,906bn in net profit (+13.1% YoY) in FY21. For
FY22–FY23, we forecast a CAGR for net profit of 11%.
Expected return 27% • Due to the impact of the pandemic, VHM has delayed the presale time for two projects of Vinhomes Wonder
Park and Vinhomes Co Loa, from 4Q21 to 2022, and three projects of Vinhomes Lang Van, Vinhomes Long
Beach, and Vinhomes Vu Yen, from 2022 to 2023. We believe that the recent slowdown will create growth
NP (21F, VND bn) 31,906 momentum for the coming years, especially for a significant profit-scaled enterprise like VHM.
Consensus NP (21F, VND bn) 35,099 Risks
EPS Growth (21F, %) -17 • We remain cautious on rising construction prices, internal trading with other Vingroup subsidiaries, and —
most of all — the lasting economic impact of the pandemic.
P/E (21F, x) 12.2
Shares outstanding (mn) 4,354 FY (31/12) 12/18 12/19 12/20 12/21F 12/22F 12/23F
OP (VNDbn) 19,725 29,715 37,305 40,663 41,770 49,365
Foreign ownership (%) 22.9
OP margin (%) 51 57.5 52.1 48.7 43.1 47.2
52-week low 57,400 NP (VNDbn) 14,776 24,319 28,206 31,906 32,706 38,781
52-week high 91,100 EPS (VND) 4,503 6,502 8,315 6,909 7,023 8,448
ROE (%) 57.0 43.8 38.6 26.4 21.9 21.2
(%) 1M 6M 12M
P/E (x) 16.3 13.0 10.8 12.2 11.3 9.4
Absolute 7.2 4.9 31.4 P/B (x) 5.7 5.0 3.4 3.9 3.1 2.6
Relative -0.7 -8.9 -18.8 Source: Bloomberg, Mirae Asset Vietnam Research

No Va Land Investment Group Corp (NVL VN) Top pick
Great potential from infrastructure investment
Investment points
(Maintain) BUY • In 9M21, NVL achieved VND10,362bn (+159% YoY) in revenue and VND2,549bn (-23% YoY) in net profit, mainly
from the handover of projects such as Saigon Royal, Aqua City, Nova Hills Mui Ne, Victoria Village, Nova World
Ho Tram, and Nova World Phan Thiet.
Target price • We forecast NVL to reach nearly VND2.4tn in net profit in 4Q21 (+318% YoY, equivalent to that of 9M21),
131,700
(VND, 12M) thanks to financial income of nearly VND4tn (financial income in 9M21 of nearly VND3tn). In 2022, we forecast
NVL's net profit to reach VND3,787bn (-23% YoY), due to a decrease in financial income, expected only at
VND2,800bn (compared to a forecast of VND6,900bn in 2021, -60% YoY). Excluding this financial income, NVL’s
Current price
110,200 operating profit in 2022 will reach VND3,150bn (versus a forecast of VND500bn in 2021, six times higher).
(11/29/21)
• Not including announced projects, NVL still has 3,700 ha of land waiting to be developed, most of which is
reserved for hospitality real estate and residential projects in and around Ho Chi Minh City. By 2030, it plans to
Expected return 20% have 15,000 ha for development, three times larger than its current land bank.
• NVL projects will benefit greatly from infrastructure investments in the near future: Long Thanh International
Airport, to be completed in 2025; Phan Thiet International Airport Phase 1 (with a capacity of 2mn
NP (21F, VND bn) 4,997
passengers/year), and the Ho Chi Minh City - Dau Giay - Phan Thiet Highway, to be completed in 2022; in
Consensus NP (21F, VND bn) 4,757 addition, the Dau Giay - Bao Loc and Bien Hoa - Vung Tau expressways are expected to begin construction
once the pandemic is under control.
EPS Growth (21F, %) 26
P/E (21F, x) 32.6
OP (VNDbn) 4,678 592 5,049 7,493 6,005 7,982
OP margin (%) 33.7 28.8 36.5 53.7 33.3 34.5
52-week low 43,724 NP (VNDbn) 3,267 3,387 3,906 4,997 3,787 4,835
52-week high 123,600 EPS (VND) 3,533 3,579 4,021 3,391 2,569 3,281
ROE (%) 19.1 15.3 13.9 14.7 9.9 11.0
(%) 1M 6M 12M
P/E (x) 16.5 16.2 16.4 32.6 43.1 33.7
Absolute 5.4 9.5 143.4 P/B (x) 2.9 2.4 2.1 4.0 3.6 3.3
Relative -2.5 -4.2 93.2 Source: Bloomberg, Mirae Asset Vietnam Research

Retail & Consumer – Bottoming out
Low base and • Personal incomes stroked: Due to hits of Covid-19 on the local economy, average personal incomes were negatively
affected, particularly low-to-mid-level incomes. In 2020, per capita annual income of Vietnamese earners fell by 1%
economy resurgence YoY to VND50.4mn (US$2,172). As the consequences of the fourth wave of Covid-19 far exceed those of previous
lead consumption waves, annual incomes are expected to be hit hard in 2021.
rebound • Unemployment rate hikes: The pandemic and prolonged social distancing caused shortfalls in the cash reserves of
enterprises, eventually accelerating the number of forced company closures. In detail, the number of re-operated
and newly-established enterprises fell significantly, while the number of enterprises awaiting and completing
dissolution surged during 10M21. Consequently, the unemployment rate reached its peak of nearly 4% in 3Q21.
• Sharp contraction in the last two years creates low base for momentum: Since the arrival of the Covid-19
pandemic in early-2020, retail sales growth and consumption have faced strong pressures, especially sales of travel
services. However, there are a number of factors that could improve consumption in both the short- and long-term.
As social distancing was progressively eased from late-September 2021, retail sales are expected to recover, thanks to
peak sale-off season and huge shopping demand for the Tet holiday. During 2020 and 2021, domestic consumption
was depressed by economic turbulence, which is expected to end in 2021.
• We expect FY22 profits of food and beverage enterprises to recover to pre-epidemic levels in 2019, showing high
growth rates in 2022, from the low base of 2021. The recovery will be in all product groups, including beer, milk,
exported fruits and vegetables, and exported seafood.
GDP per capita Unemployment Retail sales and consumption services (YoY)
3,000 10% 57 3.5 Retail sales of consumer goods and services

(% YoY) Retail sales of goods
56 Accommodation & Catering Services
8%
2,500 3 Travel Services
55 20
Other Services
6%
54
2,000 0
2.5
4% 53
-20
1,500 52
2
2%
51 -40
1,000 0% 50 1.5
-60
-80
Sep 19
Nov 19
Sep 20
Nov 20
Sep 21
Nov 21
May 19
Mar 20
May 20
Mar 21
May 21
Jul 19
Jan 20
Jul 20
Jan 21
Jul 21
GDP per capita (US$) Growth (RHS) Labor forces (mn) Unemployement (%) (RHS)
Sources: GSO, Mirae Asset Vietnam Research

Retail & Consumer – Bottoming out (cont’d.)
Vaccinations hasten • Vaccinated coverage acceleration will boost the recovery: As Vietnam failed to accomplish a “Zero-Covid”
strategy, local governors are trying to co-exist with the virus. They expect to fully vaccinate all adults by the end of
the reopening 2021. In 4Q21, Vietnam has resumed experimental international flights with the package tour program. Cross-border
progress; positive travel will be fully reopened in 2Q22, according to The Ministry of Culture, Sports and Tourism proposal. Therefore,
both travel services and accommodation & catering services are expected to rebound in 2H22.
outlook based on both
• Appropriate policy will refresh local economy: The congress is considering to release new a stimulus package,
internal and external which is expected to brace both enterprises and persons. Along with average income rebound, retails sale growth
would outpace that of GDP growth. Recently, top-tier banks received significant additional credit growth room, which
factors
indirectly advance consumption by enhancing production.
• Robust FDI to fuel long-term growth: As a key driver of local economy growth in long-term – FDI – stayed strong
during virus outbreak. In 10M21, while disbursed FDI reduced by 4.1% YoY due to temporarily closure of factories and
labour shortage, registered FDI increased by 15.8% YoY showing consistent interest of foreign investor in Vietnam’s
market. We believe that Vietnam is still an attractive location for multinational corporation to diversify their factory
from China thanks to FTAs and competitive labour cost.
Vaccination coverage (per 100 people) FDI (US$bn)
1 Dose 2 Doses 35 100%
30 80%
INDONESIA 32.3 48.6 25 60%
20 40%
WORLD 41.8 53.4
15 20%
THAILAND 55.9 66.7 10 0%
5 -20%
VIETNAM 42.8 68.2
0 -40%
PHILIPPINES 38.4 68.9 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 10M20 10M21
FDI registered FDI disbursed

MALAYSIA 76.2 78.2
FDI R. YoY (RHS) FDI D. YoY (RHS)
Sources: OurWorldInData, GSO, Mirae Asset Vietnam Research

Nafoods Group JSC (NAF VN) Top pick
Accelerating thanks to EVFTA
Investment points
(Maintain) BUY • We recommend Buy for NAF with a target price of VND35,800, based on a target P/E of 22x (1-year historical
P/E) applied to 2022 forecast for adjusted EPS of VND1,626.
• 9M21, NAF reported revenue growth of 32% YoY and NPAT growth of 19% YoY, as the European and US
Target price markets have re-opened since 1Q21, after widespread Covid-19 vaccinations. We estimate NAF’s FY21 revenue
35,800
(VND, 12M) will reach VND1,574bn (+30.9% YoY) and NPAT VND81bn (+31.8% YoY), based on signed contracts. The
estimated EAT is 6% higher than the company’s target. Sales volume of all major products is forecast to have
Current price strong growth (juice: +35% YoY; dried products: +22% YoY; and passion fruit seedlings: +38% YoY).
27,150
(11/29/21) • In 2022, NAF is expected to record strong revenue growth of 24.4% YoY, thanks to the full recovery of the
European market and re-opening of the Chinese and Southeast Asian markets. FY22 should be a fruitful year
for NAF, with projected NPAT growth of 38.5% YoY.
Expected return 32%
• Thanks to the new factory, NAF launched its dried fruit and nut products in December 2020 and they have
quickly become its best-selling offerings, with over 100X40ft containers exported in 8M21. We believe dried
NPAT (21F, VND bn) 81 fruit/nut products should maintain a high growth rate of over 30% YoY in FY22–FY25.
Consensus NP (21F, VND bn) N/a • EVFTA continues to pave the way for traditional products (concentrate juice, puree, and IQF). The traditional
products will record revenue growth of 15% YoY, reaching VND1,128bn.
EPS Growth (21F, %) 34.5
P/E (21F, x) 22
Market cap (VND bn) 1,372 FY (31/12) 2020 2021F 2022F 2023F
Net revenue(VND bn) 1,203 1,574 1,958 2,333
Shares outstanding (mn) 51 111 118 154 188
Operating income (VND bn)
Free float (%) 47.3 Operating income – growth (%YoY) 31% 6% 31% 23%
NPAT(VND bn) 61 81 112 146
Net profit adjusted (VND bn) 42 59 87 118
52-week low 17,800 EPS adjusted (VND) 913 1,228 1,626 2,087
EPS growth (YoY) 24.1% 34.5% 32.4% 28.4%
52-week high 34,300
ROE 8.2% 9.7% 11.8% 13.4%
(%) 1M 6M 12M ROA 4.0% 4.6% 5.8% 7.0%
Absolute -0.9 -7.0 48.0 Dividend/Par value (%) 0% 0% 0% 0%
Relative -4.2 -15.2 0.6 Note: All figures are based on consolidated VAS; NP refers to net profit attributable to controlling interests
Source: Company data, MAS Vietnam Research estimates

Mobile World Corporation (MWG VN)
Every challenge is an opportunity
Investment points
(Maintain) BUY • In 10M21, revenue and EAT of Mobile World Corporation (MWG) increased by 10% and 19% YoY, completing
79% and 82% of its business plan, respectively. Net profit margin improved significantly, from 2.4% in July to
3.4% in August and 4.6% in in October 2021, thanks to the application of technology in sales during the
Target price quarantine period and cost reduction approaches. In addition, the renegotiation on store rentals will support
169,300
(VND, 12M) MWG's profit margin in the short term.
• Growing digitalization in the “new normal” and market consolidation will sustain double-digit growth. As
Current price demand for ICT products to serve both working and learning activities in the “new normal”, sales of those
137,500 goods are expected to re-enter their growth stage. Although the epidemic affected MWG's sales of electronic
(11/29/21)
products, it also accelerated the elimination of small and medium-sized retailers.
• Diversified product coverage will continue to serve as a growth engine. In addition to the ongoing expansion
Expected return +23% of its pharmacy retail chain, MWG plans to open new chains in the fashion and jewelry sectors.
Risks
NP (21F, VNDbn) 4,497
• The key risk to our call is that MWG’s profit fails to meet target. Due to product line expansion, the bottom-
Consensus NP (21F, VNDbn) 4,614 line growth of MWG may face pressure, which would cause P/E volatility in the short term.
EPS Growth (21F, %) -27.2
P/E (21F, x) 20.6

FY (31/12) 2018 2019 2020 2021F 2022F 2023F
Shares outstanding (mn) 713 (%) VN-Index MWG VN
210
Revenue (VNDbn) 86,516 102,174 108,546 120,086 133,976 147,791
Free float (%) 75.4
190 OP (VNDbn) 3,870 4,977 5,216 6,380 7,752 8,742
Foreign ownership (%) 49.0 170 OP margin (%) 4.5 4.9 4.8 5.3 5.8 5.9
52-week low (VND) 74,133 150 NP (VNDbn) 2,879 3,836 3,920 4,497 5,519 6,274
52-week high (VND) 145,000 130 EPS (VND) 6,641 8,916 8,838 6,431 7,741 8,545
110 ROE (%) 38.66 36.32 28.38 26.15 26.13 24.23
(%) 1M 6M 12M
90 P/E (x) 19.91 14.83 14.96 20.56 17.08 15.47
Absolute 12.0 50.6 91.9
70
P/B (x) 6.52 4.83 3.90 4.98 4.16 3.51
Relative 4.3 37.1 42.1 Nov 20Jan 21Mar 21May 21 Jul 21 Sep 21Nov 21

Masan Group Corporation (MSN VN) Top pick
2022 profit to reach new high
Investment points
(Maintain) TRADING BUY • We recommend Trading Buy for Masan Group (MSN) with a target price of VND179,000. Our TP is based on a
sum-of-the-parts approach, with separate multiples applied to MSN’s five major business segments: packaged
food, meat value chain, high-tech materials, grocery retail, and financial services.
Target price
179,000 • MSN is the largest F&B producer in Vietnam, with consolidated revenue of VND64,801bn in 9M21 (+16.5% YoY).
(VND, 12M) The group benefited from social distancing measures against Covid-19 in Vietnam in 9M21, as lockdowns of
residential areas and wet markets led to increasing demand for MSN’s packaged food and chilled meat, and
Current price boosted sales of its convenience store chain. Besides, recovery of global tungsten price led to a surge of
152,500
(11/29/21) 89.3% YoY in MSN’s high-tech materials’ revenue in 9M21. MSN’s net profit after tax is expected to increase by
228% YoY from 2020’s low base.
• In 2022, we expect the group’s net revenue to decline by 4.8% YoY, driven by MSN’s divestment from the
Expected return 17% animal feed segment. In contrast, consolidated net profit after tax is forecast to accelerate by 54.7% YoY in
2022 to VND6,269bn, as other business segments are projected to keep growing strongly. Consolidated gross
NP (21F, VNDbn) 4,052 margin is expected to improve, as: 1) prices of raw food material and live hogs are forecast to decline; 2)
tungsten price is likely to rise; and 3) shared profits from its financial service business are forecast to grow
Consensus NP (21F, VNDbn) N/a
strongly. In addition, MSN's financial expenses are forecast to drop significantly after the divestment of its
EPS Growth (21F, %) 228.4 feed business and receiving investment capital of US$340mn from SK Group in Korea.
P/E (21F, x) 45
Market cap (VND bn) 184,754 FY (31/12) 2020 2021F 2022F 2023F
Net revenue (VNbn) 77,218 94,746 90,154 100,938
Shares outstanding (mn) 1,181
Operating profit (VNDbn) 1,682 6,319 7,506 8,771
Free float (%) 42.2 Operating profit growth (% YoY) -65.3 275.8 18.8 16.8
Foreign ownership (%) 32.3 Net profit (VNDbn) 1,234 4,052 6,269 7,453
Net profit growth (% YoY) -77.8 228.4 54.7 18.9
EPS (VND) 1,045 3,432 5,311 6,313
52-week high (VND) 156,800 EPS growth (% YoY0 -77.8% 228.4% 54.7% 18.9%
ROE 8.8% 27.0% 28.2% 25.8%
(%) 1M 6M 12M
ROA 1.2% 4.6% 6.9% 7.7%
Abslolute 3.1 39.8 80.7
Cash dividend/share par value (%) 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Banks – Growth sustained
The macro • Policy rate is expected to slightly increase: Regardless of low CPI, we see pressure of increasing CPI in the
following months, due to soaring prices of food and energy, a low trade surplus, and possible stimulus packages.
environment offers Battling inflationary pressures, many EMs raised their rates within a range of 50bps to 150bps, with other increases
opportunities, but under consideration. Therefore, Vietnam’s rate is also expected to increase in 2022.
also challenges • Sufficient liquidity to endure: In contrast to 2020, growth in deposits appeared to underperform compared with
that of credit in 9M21. The main reasons for low deposit growth include a savings shortage caused by economic
interruption related to social distancing approaches and low interest-rate offerings. Most of the low deposit growth
causes should be short-lived, thus, deposit growth will rebound as economic activity resumes. In addition, the high
likelihood of stimulus packages will support liquidity of the banking system.
• High credit growth will be prolonged until 2022: By end-10M21, credit growth is expected to reach 8.7% YTD,
higher than the 6.1% YTD of 10M20. Along with the reopening of Vietnam’s economy since late-September 2021, the
last quarter of the year usually records high credit growth. Recently, top-tier banks — both state- and privately-
owned — received additional credit growth room, including VCB, CTG, BID, TCB, ACB, and VPB. We expect 2021 credit
growth of about 13%, while 2022 credit growth is expected to reach about 12%.
Credit growth Deposit growth CPI
2018 2019 2020 2021F 2018 2019 2020 2021 (% YoY)

Inflation Core inflation
15% 16% 7
6
12%
12% 5
4
9%
8% 3
6% 2
4% 1
3%
0
0% 0% -1
1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q -2
Jan 15 Jan 16 Jan 17 Jan 18 Jan 19 Jan 20 Jan 21
Sources: SBV, GSO, Mirae Asset Vietnam Research

Banks – Growth sustained (cont’d.)
Increasing rate could • Banks enjoyed low-rate environment: In order to mitigate the effects of the pandemic, the State Bank of Vietnam
(SBV) has conducted three policy rate cuts totalling more than 150bps for all tenors in 2019 and 2020. In addition,
pressure NIM ample liquidity of banking sector was maintained during the waves of Covid-19, thanks to the outperformance of
deposit growth over credit growth in FY20. CASA of listed banks also advanced by nearly 1%p in 9M21. Therefore, the
overall funding rate of banks declined significantly, enhancing banks’ NIM. In detail, the NIM of listed banks
increased by 47bps YTD, reaching 3.8% in 3Q21.
• NIM to inch down: On the upside, the end of rate incentive packages will normalize the yield of banks’ loan books.
Since 2Q21, investment and business banking growth has outperformed that of retail banking, due to social
distancing measures that should reverse soon after economic activity resumes. Therefore, the overall yield of banks’
credit portfolio will improve from late-2022. However, the funding rate should increase, based on the assumption of a
lower liquidity environment and high inflation expectation. In all, NIM is expected to decline slightly, due to the
following reasons: 1) The key driver of NIM expansion was funding rate reductions; 2) increasing fund demand for
credit growth post-Covid; and 3) funding rate increases should exceed those of asset yield.
Interbank rate Deposit rates (%) NIM

7 9%
4.0
3.5
6
3.0
6%
2.5
2.0 5
1.5
3%
1.0 4
0.5
0.0 3 0%
Nov 20 Feb 21 May 21 Aug 21 Nov 21
ON 1W 2W
2020 3Q21
Big 4 Large private banks
Sources: Bloomberg, Company data, Mirae Asset Vietnam Research

Asset quality • Asset quality diminished: Regardless of the effects of Cir. 14/2021/TT-NHNN’s extended time horizon for debt
rescheduling, giving exemption from or reduction of loan interest and charges without changing loans groups, on-
encounters difficulties balance sheet NPL and gross NPL (including group 2 loans) increased. In detail, the NPL and gross NPL of listed
banks increased by 0.2%p and 0.6% YTD, reaching 1.6% and 3% as of 3Q21. In order to mitigate the tailwind effects of
the pandemic, banks braced their balance sheets by increasing protections. Accordingly, provisioning coverage of
listed banks increased by 13.6%p YTD to more than 118%.
• Outlooks of both NPL and provisioning will differ: The NPL of banks with high retail banking proportions within
their credit portfolios will be reported shortly after the pandemic, while the NPL of banks with high investment
banking and business banking concentration often takes longer to appear in financial reports. NPL arising from
business and investment banking should also be highly dependent on the enterprises’ vulnerability to Covid-19’s
effects. In general, we expect NPL to increase slightly until mid-2022, due to the end of debt rescheduling
endorsement. Meanwhile, banks with high provisioning coverage ratios and robust incomes will be able to maintain
the quality of their loan books.
• Systematic risks still exists: We recommend investors not lower their vigilance yet, due to the effects of
Cir.14/2021/TT-NHNN. The Circular allowed banks to restructure part of their customers’ debts affected by Covid-19.
Thus, reported total loans receiving special treatment from the Circular should be insignificant. A failure to meet the
debt obligations of one debt can trigger credit risks for the remaining debt.
NPL Gross NPL Provisioning coverage
4% 9% 400%
3% 7% 300%
5%
2% 200%
3%
1% 100%
1%
0% 0%
TPB
SHB
BID
VIB
VCB
HDB
STB
CTG
MBB
TCB
OCB
VPB
ACB
-1%
4Q20 3Q21 2020 3Q21 2020 3Q21
Sources: Company data, Mirae Asset Vietnam Research

Reasonable valuation • Lowering CIR and sustainable incomes growth offset provisioning hike: Thanks to digitalizing of operations, the
cost to income ratio (CIR) of most banks has fallen significantly in recent years. In 9M21, the CIR of listed banks
declined by 3.6%p YTD. The pandemic accelerated customer interactions with online banking services, which
eventually reduces fixed costs. Additionally, high credit growth endured lending income increases, while progress in
services income is supported by earnings from bancassurance sales recovery and upbeat bond issuance guarantee
services. Divestment incomes, as well as written-off bad-debt recovery, are also expected to support the bottom-lines
of banks. In all, despite provisioning increases caused by Covid-19 in 2022 and 2023, earnings momentum will
eliminate the impact on banks’ profits.
• Trading premium thanks to exceptional profitability and high growth: In comparison to regional peers,
Vietnamese banks are trading at premiums, in terms of multiples (P/B). The profitability ratios of local banks are
significantly higher. Profit growth is also expected to be maintained at over 20% in the medium term, backing up our
belief that the valuations of local banks are reasonable.
Stock code NIM (%) NPL (%) BVPS (VND) P/B (x) EPS (VND) P/E (x) ROA (%) ROE (%)
BID 3.1 1.8 20,593 2.2 1,447 18.6 0.6 12.2
CTG 3.3 0.9 19,762 1.7 2,850 10.0 1.2 18.6
VCB 3.5 0.6 29,504 3.3 4,470 17.3 1.6 20.8
MBB 5.5 1.1 14,851 2.0 2,196 9.9 2.3 21.7
VPB 8.4 3.4 14,019 2.6 2,367 13.2 2.8 21.9
ACB 4.5 0.6 15,723 2.2 2,809 9.5 2.2 25.8
HDB 4.7 1.3 13,852 2.3 2,104 11.5 1.8 22.5
SHB 3.7 1.8 11,797 2.0 1,073 13.1 1.1 17.4
VIB 4.9 1.7 14,267 2.9 2,926 11.6 2.3 28.9
TCB 5.8 0.5 24,960 2.1 3,515 10.7 3.7 22.1
Average 4.7 1.4 2.35 12.5 1.9 21.2
Sources: Bloomberg, Mirae Asset Vietnam Research

Vietnam Technological and Commercial JSB (TCB VN) Top pick
Momentum persists
Investment points
(Maintain) BUY • TCB’s growth has been immune to Covid-19’s challenges. In 9M21, its credit growth was impressive, at 17%
YoY. TCB’s current account and savings account ratio (CASA) reached a new high of 49% (+2.9%p YTD). NIM
expanded by 82bps YTD to 5.7%, the second highest NIM among Vietnam’s banks. Total 9M21 PBT of the bank
Target price
68,000 reached VND17.1tr (US$737mn), up by 59.6% YoY and accomplishing 86.4% of the annual target.
(VND, 12M)
• TCB is expected to deliver the second-highest profit in the banking sector. Over the next 3–5 years, TCB aims
to achieve annual double-digit growth, which is backed by the following indications: 1) a high capital adequacy
Current price
52,300 ratio (CAR) that endured substantial credit growth; 2) superior CASA secured high NIM; and 3) declining CIR
(11/29/21)
and provisioning helped support its bottom line.
Risks
Expected return 30%
• Key risks to our call include: 1) peaking CASA caused high short-term funding to medium- and long-term
lending ratio (SFMLL) to almost reach the regulated cap of 40% in 2Q21, although fortunately it fell to 32.6% in
NP (21F, VNDbn) 17,428 3Q21; 2) extraordinary achievements set high expectations from shareholders; and 3) concentration risk
Consensus NP (21F, VNDbn) 16,832 continues to be our key concern, with high credit exposure to real estate and corporate bonds of 77% in its
credit book.
EPS growth (21F, %) 41.1
P/E (21F, x) 10.7
Market cap (VNDbn) 189,589
Shares outstanding (mn) 3,511 (%) VN-Index TCB VN FY (31/12) 12/18 12/19 12/20 12/21F 12/22F 12/23F
270 Net interest inc. (VNDbn) 11,127 14,258 18,751 25,487 29,558 34,143
Free float (%) 77.1
Net non-interest inc. (VNDbn) 7,223 6,810 8,291 10,204 10,842 11,768
Foreign ownership (%) 22.5 220 Operating profit (VNDbn) 10,661 12,838 15,800 22,343 25,659 29,894
52-week low 23,100 NP (VNDbn) 8,463 10,075 12,325 17,428 20,015 23,319
170
EPS (VND) 2,420 2,878 3,516 4,964 5,701 6,642
52-week high 58,600
ROE (%) 21.5 17.7 18.0 21.0 19.8 19.1
120
(%) 1M 6M 12M P/E (x) 21.9 12.4 15.1 10.7 9.3 8.0
Absolute 1.0 2.7 123.7 P/B (x) 3.6 2.0 2.5 2.0 1.7 1.4
70
Relative (3.0) (8.1) 78.4 Nov 20 Feb 21 May 21 Aug 21 Nov 21 BVPS (VND) 14,809 17,734 21,289 26,072 31,607 38,055
Note: All figures are based on consolidated VAS; NP refers to net profit attributable to controlling interests
Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Vietnam Research

Saigon Hanoi Commercial Joint Stock Bank (SHB VN) Top pick
Transforming
Investment points
(Maintain) TRADING BUY Soaring profit
• In 9M21, Saigon Hanoi Commercial Joint Stock Bank (SHB) recorded solid results: pre-tax income reached
VND5,055bn (+93.9% YoY), achieving 86% of the company’s 2021 target, while total assets increased by 12.5%
Target price YTD to VND464tn.
28,550
(VND, 12M)
• According to SHB, after many consecutive quarters of improvement, by 3Q21, ROA and ROE hit 1.5% and 25.6%
respectively, approaching the levels of Vietnam’s leading JS commercial banks. The bank's cost-to-income ratio
Current price (CIR) in 9M21 was below 30%, an optimal level, and a sharp decrease compared with 9M20 (40.4%) and FY20
24,100 (35.2%).
(11/29/21)
SHB to exceed 2021 PBT target (+17%), thanks to unexpected income amid increasing bad debt provisioning
Expected return 18%

• In August 2021, SHB divested 100% of the charter capital of consumer lending company SHB Finance to Krungsri,
a member of Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group (MUFG), for approximately VND3,600bn. SHB expects to book
VND1,500bn in 2021 (transferring 50% of charter capital) and receive the remainder after three years. SHB is also
NP (21F, VND bn) 5,785 divesting SHB Laos and SHB Cambodia in 4Q21.
Consensus NP (21F, VND bn) N/A • Recently, SHB set its foreign ownership ratio at 10% to prepare for the offering of shares to foreign investors
and strategic investors. According to market practice in recent years, the issue price will be around 2.5–3 times
EPS growth (21F, %) 43.3 the book value for quality banks with ROE of over 30%. We expect SHB’s 2021 ROE to reach 19.21% (including
new, upcoming capital injections); thus, the issue price will not be less than 2.3 times book value.
P/E (21F, x) 11.5
• We lower our target price from VND35,000 to VND28,550 after a 10.5% stock dividend and 28% issuance for
Market cap (VND bn) 66,539 existing shareholders.
Net interest income (VNDbn) 5,556 7,830 9,933 13,315 13,988 14,950
Free float (%) 85.0 Net fee income (VNDbn) 714 694 523 491 539 603
Foreign ownership (%) 3.7 TOI (VNDbn) 6,742 9,389 12,207 17,005 16,717 17,554
NP (VNDbn) 1,672 2,418 2,607 5,785 5,463 5,602
52-week low 9,145 EPS (VND) 1,390 1,563 1,514 2,169 2,048 2,101
ROE (%) 10.78% 13.88% 12.26% 19.21% 14.04% 12.62%
52-week high 26,454
P/E (x) 5.2 3.4 11.2 11.5 12.1 11.8
Share performance (%) 1M 6M 12M P/B (x) 0.5 0.4 1.2 1.8 1.5 1.4
Book value (VND) 13,570 15,377 13,727 13,573 15,600 17,682
Absolute 4.1 -8.7 88.7
Relative 0.8 -16.9 41.3 Source: Company data, MAS Vietnam Research estimates

Vietnam Prosperity JSCB (VPB VN) Top pick
Dream big
Investment points
(Upgrade) BUY • By the end of 3Q21, VPB’s assets grew by 14.4% YTD ( +6.1% QoQ), reaching VND479tr (US$20.7bn). Funding
structure recorded improvements, such as CASA expansion of 6.3%p YTD and declining financial leverage.
Despite flat earnings growth in 3Q21, 9M21 net profit grew by nearly 25% YoY to VND9.4tr (US$404mn),
Target price
44,900 completing 70.5% of its annual target. NIM dropped by 40bps, due to the lower contribution of FE Credit (FEC)
(VND, 12M) in consolidated income.
Current price
• High growth is guaranteed for the next 3–5 years in both credit and profit. Key drivers of 9M21 assets and
38,400 profit was the parent bank, while consumer credit company FEC faced pressures from the pandemic, as well as
(11/29/21)
progress of divestment. We expect the operations of FEC will recover from 2022, which supports lending
income growth. One-off income from divestment will boost the parent VPB’s CAR to a new high, allowing the
Expected return bank to strongly expand its credit portfolio. In addition, the credit cost of the bank is expected to reach a peak
17%
in 2021, due to high exposure of retail banking within its credit books. Excess capital also improves the
bargaining power of VPB, in terms of raising funds, that help it to depress funding cost.
NP (21F, VNDbn) 12,982
• In addition to a positive outlook for VPB’s fundamentals, new shareholders of the FEC–SMBC group showed an
Consensus NP (21F, VNDbn) n/a interest in becoming strategic partners in VPB, which should lift VPB’s valuation benchmark in the short term.
EPS growth (21F, %) -29 • We raised our target price for VPB to VND44,000 (from VND40,000), equivalent to a target P/B of 2.16x.
P/E (21F, x) 12.1
Shares outstanding (mn) 4,445 (%) VN-Index VPB VN FY (31/12) 12/18 12/19 12/20 12/21F 12/22F 12/23F
270 Net interest inc. (VNDbn) 24,702 30,670 32,346 36,668 44,493 51,487
Free float (%) 70
Net non-interest inc. (VNDbn) 6,384 5,685 6,687 8,502 8,506 11,504
Foreign ownership (%) 15.2 220 Operating profit (VNDbn) 9,199 10,324 13,019 16,389 22,918 31,783
52-week low 13,194 NP (VNDbn) 7,356 8,260 10,414 12,982 16,220 21,488
170
EPS (VND) 2,994 3,388 4,242 2,982 3,725 4,935
52-week high 40,722
ROE (%) 22.8 21.5 21.9 18.2 16.4 17.8
120
(%) 1M 6M 12M P/E (x) 12.1 12.9 8.5 12.1 9.7 7.3
Absolute -2.6 -3 155.9 P/B (x) 2.5 2.4 1.6 1.7 1.5 1.2
70
Relative -7.9 -15.3 108.7 Nov 20 Feb 21 May 21 Aug 21 Nov 21 BVPS (VND) 14,579 17,996 22,187 20,775 24,553 29,557
Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Vietnam Research

JS Commercial Bank for Foreign Trade of Vietnam (VCB VN) Top pick
On top of profit
Investment points
(Maintain) TRADING BUY Maintaining growth momentum and leading position in terms of profit
• In 9M21, the credit balance of JS Com. Bank for Foreign Trade of Vietnam (VCB) grew impressively to VND936.3tn
(+11.5% YoY and +1.6% vs. 2Q21), a large increase in terms of the bank’s size and in the context of pandemic-
Target price
112,600 related social distancing. The YoY increase has now exceeded the bank’s target for 2021 (10.5%). Individual
(VND, 12M) customers (home loans) and SMEs are still the main growth drivers of credit loans.
• 3Q21 business results were very positive, with net interest income increasing by 19.5% YoY to reach
Current price VND10,428bn. This shows that the impact on NIM of interest-rate support for customers has been quite small
101,100
(11/29/21) compared with some other banks. The average NIM for 9M21 is around 3.3%, and VCB is likely to maintain this
level for 2021F.
Expected return Profits remain high amid a sharp increase in provisioning to maintain asset quality
11%
Attractive valuation zone, fairly safe in medium term, and momentum from capital raising story
NP (21F, VND bn) 20,547 • Based on the performance results of 9M21, the bank’s 2021 business plan, and further discounting risks related
to the Covid-19 pandemic, we maintain our profit forecast for 2021F. Accordingly, EPS and VCB's book value will
Consensus OP (21F, VND bn) n/a reach VND5,546 and VND30,428/share, respectively (before the 27% stock dividend).
EPS growth (21F, %) 23.9 • At the current trading price, VCB stock is trading below the average trailing PE and PB for the last four years.
This is a safe valuation, considering that VCB: 1) has maintained healthy profit levels; 2) has been setting aside
P/E (21F, x) 18.92
large provisions; and 3) has a capital increase plan (27% stock dividend approved by SBV).
Shares outstanding (mn) 3,709 Earnings and valuation metrics

FY (31/12) 12/18 12/19 12/20 12/21F 12/22F 12/23F
Free float (%) 25.2
Net interest income 28,409 34,577 36,285 39,060 44,698 51,123
Foreign ownership (%) 23.5 Net fee income 3,402 4,307 6,607 8,210 9,021 9,310
TOI (VNDbn) 39,278 45,730 49,063 53,845 61,025 68,522
52-week low 80,000 NP (VNDbn) 14,622 18,526 18,473 20,547 25,299 28,601
EPS (VND) 3,584 4,481 4,470 5,540 6,814 7,703
52-week high 117,200
ROE (%) 25.49% 25.90% 21.11% 19.88% 20.17% 18.80%
(%) 1M 6M 12M P/E (x) (@VND112,600) 14.93 20.47 21.90 20.30 16.51 14.60
P/B (x) (@VND112,600) 3.10 4.14 3.86 3.70 3.03 2.51
Absolute 3.2 -4.6 8.8
Book value (VND) 17,283 21,808 25,370 30,428 37,196 44,843
Relative -0.1 -12.7 -38.5 Source: Bloomberg, Mirae Asset Vietnam Research

Steel - Growth divergence
Stock prices to be Reopened southern market to push steel output in October 2021
discounted to • According to VSA, finished steel output in October 2021 reached 2.65mn tons (+ 46.2% YoY), in line with our forecast,
thanks to the reopening of the southern market.
attractive levels • Construction steel volume recovered to 895,273 tons (+40.5% MoM), equivalent to 85% of pre-Covid output, in April
2021.
• Finished steel output in 10M21 reached 24.5mn tons (+33.5% YoY), of which HRC maintained its impressive growth of
117% YoY to reach 10.3mn tons.
Exports remain the bright spot and lead sector’s success
• With the capacity reductions at blast furnaces in Japan and China, the value of Vietnam’s steel exports was maintained
above US$1bn for the fourth month. Steel export output in October 2021 reached 1.22mn tons, equivalent to export
value of US$1.23bn.
• Export volume and value of steel in 10M21 reached 11.07mn tons (+39.6% YoY) and US$9.65bn (+132% YoY),
respectively.
Stock prices to discount to attractive levels
• Iron ore prices in the Shanghai market have declined about 60% from their peak in May 2021, to US$88/mt in October
2021, thereby reducing pressure on domestic construction steel prices. According to our survey and VSA, construction
steel prices have decreased to VND16mn/mt in September 2021 (vs. VND17.2mn/mt in June 2021), which could re-
stimulate construction activities in provinces with no social distancing restrictions.
• We expect steel companies to have a good recovery in output in 4Q21. There will be a growth divergence. For
galvanized steel manufacturers, such as HSG and NKG, we maintain positive recommendations, thanks to export/total
output ratios of about 60%. For domestic construction steel companies, such as HPG or POM, we think the impact will
be greater, but not too negative, thanks to the government's supportive policies from October 2021.
• In 2022, it will be difficult for exporters to maintain large gross profit margins as in 2021, because there is no a
speculative factor in HRC prices. We forecast gross profit margin to decrease by 1–2% for the steel industry as a whole
in 2022.
• The market prices of NKG, HSG, and HPG have declined by 27.5%, 27%, and 17.5%, respectively, in the last month. We
assess that the current market prices of NKG, HSG, and HPG have been discounted to attractive levels. They are
unlikely to see a sharp decrease like in 2018. Currently, steel companies are cautious in new investments; thus, we see
insignificant long-term debt pressure.

Steel - Growth divergence (cont’d.)
Iron ore & Coking coal Shanghai market (US$/ton) HRC’s gap price between US & China markets (US$/ton)
700 2500 75%
600 60%
2000
45%
500
1500 30%
400
15%
300 1000 0%
200
-15%
500
100 -30%
0 0 -45%
Coking coal Iron ore 56% %Gap China US
Vietnam steel volume by month (‘000 tons) Export volume (‘000 tons)
1,200
900
1,000
720
800
540
600
360
400
180
200
- -
Construction steel Steel pipe Galvanized steel HRC Construction steel Steel pipe Galvanized steel HRC
Source: Mirae Asset Vietnam Research, VSA, Bloomberg

Hoa Phat Group JSC (HPG VN) Top pick
Steel giant
Investment points
(Maintain) BUY • 10M21 output reached 7.26 MT (+51.5% YoY), of which galvanized steel and HRC contributed 356,825 tons and
2.17 mn MT, respectively, accounting for 35% of total output.
• Despite the impact of Covid-19, we believe galvanized steel is currently benefiting greatly from the reopening
Target price
59,100 of countries around the world. We forecast this segment will run at full capacity in FY21, with total output of
(VND, 12M)
400,000 MT.
• We maintain FY21 steel output forecast of 8.89 MT (+41.5% YoY), revenue of VND59,670bn (+55.3% YoY) for
Current price construction steel, VND32,544bn for steel pipe and galvanized sheet, and VND57,857bn for HRC (+944% YoY).
48,400
(11/29/21)
• Iron ore’s price plunged from April to September 2021. In addition, HRC prices remained above US$900/ton
and added 1–2% to profit margin. We forecast FY21 net profit will set a new record, at VND36,721bn (+172%
Expected return 22% YoY). Gross and net profit margin will reach 26.8% and 20.6%, respectively, in FY21 (compared with 21% and
15% in FY20).
NP (21F, VND bn) 36,721

• We forecast revenue and net profit in 2022 to reach VND187,242bn (+5% YoY) and VND33,569bn (-9% YoY).
Consensus NP (21F, VND bn) 37,481
P/E (21F, x) 5.9
OP (VNDbn) 10,550 9,743 17,120 44,239 39,134 42,777
OP margin (%) 18.9% 15.3% 19.0% 24.8% 20.9% 21.8%
52-week low 25,800 NP (VNDbn) 8,601 7,578 13,504 36,721 33,569 35,550
52-week high 58,000 EPS (VND) 1,923 1,694 3,019 8,210 7,505 7,948
ROE (%) 21.2% 15.9% 22.9% 39.3% 27.8% 24.2%
(%) 1T 6T 12T
P/E (x) 13.5x 14.0x 13.8x 5.9x 7.9x 7.4x
Absolute -15.4 -6.9 82.7 P/B (x) 1.4x 1.4x 2.3x 2.8x 2.5x 1.0x
Relative -19.3 -19.3 34.9 Source: Company data, Bloomberg, Mirae Asset Vietnam Research

Hoa Sen Group JSC (HSG VN) Top pick
Export-led growth strategy
Investment points
(Maintain) BUY FY22 EPS forecast at VND6,928/share, with FY22 output forecast of 2.55mn MT (+11% YoY)
• As China has continued to tighten steel production, due to power shortages and emission controls, we expect
Target price HSG's export segment to keep growing in FY22.
47,400
(VND, 12M)
• However, we believe FY22 steel ore prices will not significantly fluctuate, as supply from Australia, Brazil, and
South Africa has returned, and China has opened its raw steel stockpiles. Therefore, it will be difficult to
Current price generate significant profit from different material prices, as in FY21.
38,900
(11/29/21)
• We forecast HSG FY22's output of galvanized sheet and steel pipe to reach 1.976mn MT (+10% YoY) and
469,476 tons (+12% YoY), respectively.
Expected return 22% • FY22 revenue and net profit will reach VND48,538bn (+0% YoY) and VND3,417bn (-20.8% YoY), respectively.
NP (21, VND bn) 4,313
Consensus NP (21F, VND bn) n/a
EPS Growth (21, %) 275
P/E (21F, x) 4.4
Shares outstanding (mn) 493

(%) VN-Index HSG VN FY (30/09) FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21F FY22F
Free float (%) 68.9 350 Revenue (VNDbn) 26,149 34,441 28,035 27,543 48,727 48,538
Foreign ownership (%) 9.5 300 OP (VNDbn) 2,104 1,266 979 1,951 5,110 4,611
52-week low 16,300 OP margin (%) 8.0% 3.7% 3.5% 7.1% 10.5% 9.5%
250
NP (VNDbn) 1,332 409 361 1,150 4,313 3,417
52-week high 49,900 200
EPS (VND) 2,700 830 733 2,332 8,744 6,928
(%) 1M 6M 12M 150 ROE (%) 24.4% 7.9% 6.4% 17.5% 40.0% 25.9%
Absolute -17.2 -0.4 135.7 100 P/E (x) 6.6x 6.7x 10.6x 9.4x 4.4x 5.6x
Relative -21.0 -12.8 87.9 P/B (x) 1.2x 0.4x 0.6x 1.5x 2.2x 1.8x
50
Nov 20 Jan 21 Mar 21 May 21 Jul 21 Sep 21 Nov 21 Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Vietnam Research (* FY to September 30)

Nam Kim Steel JSC (NKG VN) Top pick
Exports to be a bright spot
Investment points
(Maintain) TRADING BUY • The output of galvanized sheet and steel pipe in 10M21 of NKG reached 973,090 tons (+69% YoY), with output
of galvanized sheet at 843,820 tons (+88% YoY) and that of steel pipe at 129,270 tons (+2.7% YoY).
• Exports continues to be a bright spot in NKG's business, reaching 511,929 tons and contributing 69% of NKG's
Target price
49,100 total finished steel output in 9M21. In September 2021, amid strict social distancing measures, export volume
(VND, 12M)
still reached 82,218 tons (+169% YoY), equivalent to 76% of NKG's total September output.
• From October 2021, construction has resumed operations, which will push 4Q21 domestic output. We forecast
Current price the output of galvanized sheet and steel pipe in 2021 to reach 995,400 tons (+70% YoY) and 184,306 tons
42,500
(11/29/21) (+30% YoY), respectively. FY21 revenue will be VND27,963bn (+141% YoY), and net profit will hit a record of
VND2,536bn (+759% YoY).
Expected return 16% • In 2022, NKG is expected to add 200,000 tons of bleaching capacity, thanks to the expansion of the factory in
Binh Duong province. In June 2021, NKG completely purchased a 5 ha factory in Binh Duong province by
acquiring Dea Myung Company at a price of US$5.5mn, in preparation for the expansion of the existing
NP (21F, VND bn) 2,536 bleaching line. We estimate an upgrading cost of around US$5mn for 200,000 tons of steel, leading to a
Consensus NP (21F, VND bn) 2,723 relatively low investment of VND1.1bn/ton.

• Due to the influence of lower iron ore prices, we forecast revenue and net profit in 2022 to reach VND
28,144bn (+0.6% YoY) and VND 1,480bn (-41.7% YoY).
P/E (21F, x) 3.6
Shares outstanding (mn) 218 (%) VN-Index NKG VN FY (31/12) 12/17 12/18 12/19 12/20 12/21F 12/22F
650
550 OP (VNDbn) 1,024 390 63 509 3,160 1,858
450 OP margin (%) 8.1% 2.6% 0.5% 4.4% 11.3% 6.6%
52-week low 9,700
NP (VNDbn) 708 57 47 295 2,536 1,480
350
52-week high 55,900 EPS (VND) 3,274 265 219 1,366 11,737 6,847
250
ROE (%) 24.1% 1.9% 1.6% 9.3% 44.8% 21.6%
(%) 1M 6M 12M
150
P/E (x) 5.0x 25.1x 26.5x 8.3x 3.6x 7.2x
Absolute -21.9 58.1 326.9
50 P/B (x) 1.3x 0.5x 0.5x 0.9x 2.0x 1.6x
Relative -25.8 45.6 279.1 Nov 20 Jan 21 Mar 21 May 21 Jul 21 Sep 21 Nov 21
Source: Company data, Bloomberg, Mirae Asset Vietnam Research

IT industry – Accelerating demand for digital transformation
Recovery in IT • 9M21 business results update: In 9M21, the revenue and profit after tax of listed information technology (IT) companies
grew by 18.3% YoY and 19.1% YoY, respectively, in light of: 1) the recovery in global IT spending; 2) promotion of the
spending
digital transformation needs of domestic enterprises. Enterprises with the advantages of consulting capacity and
technology products and solutions will maintain and promote orders from both domestic and foreign markets.
• The IT industry is expected to continue to recover in 2022, with business software and IT services projected to enjoy
the strongest recoveries, thanks to: 1) the increasing focus by enterprises/organizations on optimizing operational
efficiency, creating an improved and more comfortable working environment, especially as the Covid-19 pandemic has
resulted in rapid changes to work and consumption patterns; 2) a forecast recovery in IT spending, thanks to high
vaccination rates and economic recovery; 3) continued solid growth momentum of Vietnam's software exports, with the
advantages of labor resources and the increasing consolidation of Vietnam’s worldwide software outsourcing; and 4)
accelerating demand for the digital transformation of domestic businesses, in line with the government’s policies.
Expected proportion of IT spending in software and IT services

Global IT spending has rebounded from 2020 lows
to increase in the coming years
Data center systems Devices Data center systems Devices
(% YoY) Enterprise software IT services Enterprise software IT services
Communications services Overall IT
15 Communications services
100%
10 80%
60%
5
40%
0
20%
0%
-5
2019 2020 2021F 2022F 2023F 2024F 2025F
2020 2021F 2022F 2023F 2024F 2025F
Source: Gartner, IDC, Microsoft

(cont’d.)
Share of spending on digital transformation will increase
Growth rate of digital economy in South East Asia
significantly over next three years
Digital transformation All other technoloy (%)
29 2020−2025 CAGR
25
23
55% 21
62% 19
45%
38%
2021 In three years Vietnam Thailand Indonesia Malaysia Singapore
Global low-code development platform revenue (2020−2025) Vietnam’s cloud market
(US$mn) Revenue (L) Growth (R) (% YoY) (US$mn)

70,000 45 413
40
60,000
328
35
50,000
30 261
40,000 25 207
30,000 20 165
15 128
20,000
10
10,000
5
- 0
2020 2021f 2022f 2023f 2024f 2025f 2020 2021f 2022f 2023f 2024f 2025f
Source: Gartner, IDC, Microsoft

(cont’d.)
Key ratios of listed IT companies
Net profit Gross profit

Price performance Average daily trading Revenue growth
growth margin
Mkt cap (%) value (VNDbn) (% YoY) 5-year average Debt/ 5-year
Ticker (% YoY) (%) ROE P/E
(VNDbn) ROE Equity average P/E
1 month 6 month 1 month 6 month 2020 9T2021 2020 9M21 2020 9M21
FPT 88,841 1.8 20.4 200 241 7.6 17.9 12.8 18.6 39.6 38.4 21.8 25.1 68.5 12.6 22.0
CMG 6,830 12.2 84.8 5 5 -2.1 18.5 24.8 49.4 18.8 17.2 10.9 11.1 51.6 16.4 31.1
SGT 2,324 3.6 83.6 9 8 -32.1 -27.9 14.2 92.6 25.6 37.5 10.1 3.2 54.7 17.6 92.1
ELC 1,301 -6.6 96.2 19 16 -8.3 15.0 6.5 56.1 16.9 16.5 5.0 4.9 8.1 19.6 30.5
ICT 686 -4.5 15.4 8 4 -30.0 57.7 -24.2 -31.0 9.6 8.0 NA 7.2 99.0 NA 13.7
ITD 389 -18.7 57.7 19 10 31.0 -7.1 97.4 -44.3 27.6 28.2 12.8 5.9 23.3 7.4 16.4
Price performance of VNIndex and IT stocks
(End 2020=100 VNINDEX FPT CMG SGT ELC ICT ITD

500
400
300
200
100
0
Jan 21 Feb 21 Mar 21 Apr 21 May 21 Jun 21 Jul 21 Aug 21 Sep 21 Oct 21 Nov 21
Source: Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research, Bloomberg, company data

FPT Corporation (FPT VN) Top pick
Sustaining solid growth
Investment points
(Maintain) TRADING BUY
❑ We forecast FPT’s revenue and after-tax profit in 2022 at VND42,421bn (+19.3% YoY) and VND5,200bn (+23.2%
YoY), respectively.
Target price ❑ We forecast 2022 EPS to reach VND5,289 (+23.2% YoY), and 2022 P/E at 18.5x. FPT is expected to continue its
113,300
(VND, 12M) solid growth in its two core businesses going forward, supported by:
▪ FPT’s improved technology ecosystem, along with its focus on the development of FPT-made
Current price products and solutions. With FPT’s efforts towards market-expanding opportunities and consolidating
98,100
(11/29/21) its technology ecosystem, we believe the company will enjoy sustained growth momentum in the
technology segment going forward, with the US, APAC, and domestic markets being key drivers,
accompanied by a recovery in demand in Japan and Europe;
Expected return 15% ▪ Accelerating demand for digital transformation in both the domestic and overseas markets, which
should lead to expanded revenue for FPT, and partly contribute to improving its profit margin;
NP (21F, VNDbn) 4,220 ▪ Continued growth in the telecommunications segment, thanks to upgraded infrastructure and
expanded coverage area, as well as increased data center capacity.
Consensus NP (21F, VNDbn) 4,291
❑ Key risks to watch: 1) A slower-than-expected rally in FPT’s foreign markets; and 2) intensified competition in
EPS Growth (22F, %) 20 the telecommunications segment.
P/E (22F, x) 22.8
Shares outstanding (mn) 907 (%) VN-Index FPT VN

FY (31/12) 12/18 12/19 12/20 12/21F 12/22F 12/23F
220
200
OP (VNDbn) 3,122 4,147 4,605 5,813 7,106 8,708
180
OP margin (%) 13.4 15.0 15.4 16.3 16.8 17.4
52-week low (VND) 47,652 160 NP (VNDbn) 2,620 3,135 3,538 4,220 5,200 6,418
52-week high (VND) 101,500 140 EPS (VND) 2,683 3,191 3,579 4,293 5,289 6,528
120 ROE (%) 20.0 21.6 21.7 22.3 23.6 25.3
(%) 1M 6M 12M
100 P/E (x) 10.8 13.8 14.4 22.8 18.5 15.0
Absolute 3.2 18.8 102.5
80 P/B (x) 2.1 2.8 2.9 4.1 3.7 3.2
Relative -4.3 6.0 53.0 Nov 20 Jan 21 Mar 21May 21 Jul 21 Sep 21Nov 21 Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Vietnam Research

Utilities - Getting growth back
Getting growth back • After hitting the bottom in 3Q21 (-2.9% YoY), we expect Vietnam’s electricity production output growth to recover by
4.1% YoY in 4Q21, which will drive growth rate to 3.9% YoY in FY21. According to Southern Power Corporation (EVN SPC),
the electricity consumption of 21 southern provinces increased by 10% MoM in October 2021 (Long An: +30% MoM, Binh
Duong: +17% MoM, Tien Giang: +11% MoM), thanks to the recovery of production amid easing of distancing measures.
• For FY22, we forecast electricity consumption to improve by at least 8.6% YoY to meet a GDP growth rate target of 6.5%,
in accordance with Resolution No. 99/NQ-CP. Thermal power and renewable energy will benefit from the upturn, while
hydropower will see a decline in its volume and proportion of overall production, due to unfavorable hydrology.
o Renewable energy: There were 3,980 MW-worth of wind power projects recognized for Commercial Operation
Date (COD) as of October 31, 2021. The additional capacity will raise the output of renewable energy by 12% YoY
and maintain the share in the overall production at 13.1% in FY22 (FY21F: 12.7%, FY20: 5%).
o Thermal power: The volume of thermal power is expected to surge by 21% YoY in FY22. The proportion of gas-
fired power will upgrade from 10.2% in FY21F to 11.5%% in FY22F (FY20: 15.7%), and the share of coal-fired power
will jump from 45.4% in FY21F to 50.8%% in FY22F (FY20: 50.8%). There will be 1,930 MW of additional coal-fired
power capacity in FY22, as stated by the Ministry of Industry and Trade.
YoY growth of total produced and imported electricity output Vietnam’s annual electricity consumption and GDP growth
Electricity consumption growth GDP growth

10.8%
11.3%
9.0% 9.2%
8.7% 8.6%
6.8%
4.2% 4.1% 4.1%

3.8% 7.1% 7.0%
6.8% 6.5%
6.2% 3.9%
3.4%
1Q20 2Q20 3Q20 4Q20 1Q21 2Q21 3Q21 4Q21F 2.9%

1.9%
-2.5%
-2.9%
FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21F FY22F
Source: Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research, EVN Source: Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research, EVN

Utilities - Getting growth back (cont’d.)
A drought to begin o Hydropower: The water levels of some of the main rivers in the Central and Southern regions increased
continually in 3Q21 (+243% QoQ, +74% YoY) and in November 2021 (+66% QoQ, +20% YoY), which will last fruitful
outcomes of hydropower generators in those regions by 1H22.
o However, the Northern power plants will face a drought period much sooner than expected. Through the FY21
rainy season, there were almost no floods in the North. The water levels of some of the main rivers in the
Northern region remained low in 3Q21 (-14% QoQ, -39% YoY). As per EVN, the water levels of large reservoirs, such
as Hoa Binh, Lai Chau, Son La, Thac Ba, Tuyen Quang, and Ban Chat in the Da river stored only 60% of capacity in
November 2021.
o We expect hydropower to decrease by 15% YoY in production volume and its proportion to drop to 24.1% in FY22
(FY21F: 30.8%, FY20: 26.5%).
QoQ recovery in water levels in Central and South regions QoQ change in water levels in North region
243%
32%
8%
4%
66%
57% 4Q20 1Q21 2Q21 3Q21 Nov-21
45%
-14%
3% 10%
4Q19 1Q20 2Q20 3Q20 4Q20 1Q21 -16%

2Q21 3Q21 Nov-21
-47%
-58% -48%
Source: Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research, EVN Source: Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research, EVN

Utilities - Getting growth back (cont’d.)
Future power: • According to Announcement No. 308/TB-VPCP, dated November 9, 2021, Deputy Prime Minister Le Van Thanh requested
that the Ministry of Industry and Trade (MOIT) continue to complete the draft National Power Development Plan VIII
Renewables and (PDP VIII): 1) Thoroughly examine the power sources that have low feasibility and do not have investors, or that have
gas-fired energy investors but termination thereof has been proposed, especially coal-fired power projects; and 2) propose appropriate
plans after Vietnam's adoption of resolutions delivered at the 2021 United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP26).
Thus, we expect the final PDP VIII to pave the way for renewable energy and gas-fired power.
• Under the draft PDP VIII submitted by the MOIT in October 2021, the proportion of renewable energy in the overall
power capacity mix is slated to jump from 27% in FY21 to 29% in FY25, and 40% in FY45. The share of gas-fired power will
surge from 9.5% in FY21 to 13% in FY25, 21% in FY30, and 24% in FY45.
• Currently, there is a proposal by industry experts to replace 15.8 GW of unfinanced coal-fired power pipeline with 4.9 GW
sof olar power, 5.6 GW of wind power, and 8.5 GW of flexible gas-based internal combustion engine (ICE) power. In
addition, the Vietnam Energy Association has recommended an increase in offshore wind power from 2 GW to 10–12 GW
for the FY21–FY30 period.
Proportion of overall production in FY18–FY22F Power capacity in draft PDP VIII in October 2021
Hydro Coal-fired Gas-fired Renewables Others Hydro Coal-fired Gas-fired Renewables Others
FY18 22.0% 47.7% 27.4% 0.7%
FY19 21.3% 52.0% 21.1% 3.0% 104,900
FY20 26.5% 50.8% 15.7% 5.0% MW
61,683
31,380
FY21F 30.8% 45.4% 10.2% 12.7% 29,618 27,471
20,790 14,117 50,949
7,185 40,899
24,123 29,679
FY22F 24.1% 50.8% 11.5% 13.1%
25,323 26,684 35,677
22,022
FY21 FY25P FY30P FY45P
Source: Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research, EVN Source: Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research, MOIT

Power Construction JSC No.1 (PC1 VN) Top pick
Momentum from wind power projects
Investment points
(Maintain) TRADING BUY • In October 2021, PC1 successfully put into operation (COD) three wind power projects (the Lien Lap, Phong
Huy and Phong Nguyen projects; 48MW per project), just in time to enjoy a feed-in tariff of .085US$/kWh. The
wind power segment will generate 477mn kWh (+500% YoY), and contribute VND936bn in revenue (+506% YoY)
Target price and VND358bn in gross profit (+643% YoY) in FY22.
44,000
(VND, 12M)
• PC1’s core-businesses will see a 15% YoY increase in EBT based on stellar growth in wind power plants.
However, excluding any one-off gains (VND262bn on revaluation of investment in the Tan Phat Mineral JSC,
Current price
38,300 booked in 2Q21), the bottom line will decrease in FY22.
(11/29/21)
• In 3Q21, PC1 announced total investment of VND1,502bn in the nickel-copper mining project, located in Hoa
An district, Cao Bang province. The project is planned to become operational in 4Q22, which is sooner than
Expected return +15% expected. The capital structure will be a mix of 70% debt and 30% equity.
• We expect the nickel-copper project to contribute VND678bn of net revenue (excluding export tariff and
NP (21F, VNDbn) 651 resource taxation) and VND191bn of EAT annually in the extraction stage. Annual forecast profit will depend
on the depreciation period of mining rights (original cost of VND978bn). In 3Q21, PC1 started to allocate
Consensus NP (21F, VNDbn) N/A VND11bn of this cost, corresponding to a straight-line depreciation period of 22 years (forecast extraction
EPS growth (21F, %) -4 stage of only eight years). The NPV of the project is forecast at VND700bn, with IRR of 23%.
P/E (21F, x) 14.9

• Our valuation does not include any new investment plans. In November 2021, the BOD approved a capital
contribution of VND119bn to Holding Commerce Equipment Company (PC1 owns 98.74%). We expect the
Market cap (VNDbn) 9,006 company to announce more projects related to its subsidiary's 1.5 ha land fund in Hanoi’s Thanh Xuan district.
Shares outstanding (mn) 235 FY (Dec. 31) 2018 2019 2020 2021F 2022F 2023F
OP (VNDbn) 658 595 823 649 992 1,183
OP margin (%) 12.9% 10.2% 12.3% 6.8% 11.7% 12.7%
NP (VNDbn) 467 358 513 651 407 614
(%) 1M 6M 12M ROE (%) 15.3% 10.3% 12.1% 11.9% 6.4% 9.0%
Absolute 7.6 68.3 104.3 P/E (x) 8.8x 9.4x 8.3x 14.9x 23.8x 15.8x
Relative 4.4 60.2 57.1 P/B (x) 1.2x 0.9x 0.9x 1.5x 1.4x 1.3x

Textiles – Adaptation to Covid-19 pandemic
9M21 NPAT saw good • In 9M21, key listed textile and garment companies recorded good growth in NPAT. Of these, VGT (+113% YoY) and HTG
(+131% YoY) stood out, with both recording increases of over 50% YoY. In the fiber segment, STK (+171% YoY) and ADS
growth (+2.005% YoY) saw a jump in NPAT, partly due to FY20’s low base.
• GIL continued to be a bright spot when it recorded consecutive NPAT growth in 9M20 and 9M21 (+8% YoY), despite the
pandemic. The NPATs of some companies, such as HTG, VGT, TNG, M10, and STK, have recovered or surpassed pre-
pandemic levels. ADS recorded a sharp increase in NPAT, thanks to the recovery of China’s yarn market after two difficult
years.
• However, although most enterprises recorded positive growth in NPAT, cash flow from operating activities (CFO) showed
a divergence: VGT, STK, and GIL recorded positive flows, while HTG, MSH, TNG , M10, and TCM saw negative numbers.
Revenue size, NPAT growth, and CFO of some listed textile companies
(VND bn)
1200
1000
VGT
800
600
400 GIL STK

CFO
200
VGG MSH
0
-200 TCM HTG

TNG
-400
M10
-600
-100% -50% 0% 50% 100% 150% 200% 250%
NPAT growth
Source: Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research, Company data

MSH VN: Adjusted NPAT eliminating impact from the sale of Commercial Offshore's receivables in 9M20 and 9M21

Textiles – Adaptation to Covid-19 pandemic (cont’d.)
Divergence in export In main markets, the market share of Vietnam's apparel in 9M21 weakened compared with end-FY20 figures,
while the market share of Vietnam's yarn products continued to grow.
goods
• US market: In 9M21, the market share of Vietnamese textiles and garments in the US market decreased slightly,
from 14.5% in FY20 to 14.2%. However, the market share of Vietnamese apparel decreased strongly, from 19.6% in
2020 to 18.5% in 9M21. Exports of Vietnam textiles and clothing products reached US$11.6bn (+16% YoY) and
US$10.8bn (+14.9% YoY), respectively, in 9M21.
• EU market: In 9M21, imports of Vietnamese clothing to the EU reached more than EU€2bn (flat YoY), maintaining
a proportion of around 6.4% (2020: 6.5%) among the top-seven importers.
• South Korean market:
o Clothing: In 10M21, the total value of clothes imported from Vietnam into Korea reached US$1.97bn (-22%
YoY), ranking second in market share, at 31.4%.
o Fiber products: The import value of filament and staple yarns reached nearly US$1bn (+22.8% YoY) and
US$58.2mn, respectively, accounting for market shares of 14.5% and 13%, respectively (compared with
11% and 11.7%, respectively, in 2020).
Imported apparel market share in US market Imported filament market share in South Korean market
China Vietnam Bangladesh Indonesia

Staple fiber Man-made filament
India Cambodia Mexico Honduras (% YoY)
Jordan Sri Lanka Others
16.0%
100%
90% 14.0%
80% 12.0%
70%
10.0%
60%
50% 8.0%
40%
6.0%
30%
20% 4.0%
10%
2.0%
0%
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 (YTD 0.0%
Sep) 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 (YTD Oct)
Source: Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research, OTEXA Source: Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research, South Korea Customs

Divergence in export • Japan market:
goods o Clothing items: In 9M21, clothing consumption in the Japanese market continued to recover slowly, at
1.6% YoY. However, Vietnamese products recorded a sharper decline of 11% YoY, reaching less than
JP¥289bn, and accounting for a 13.9% market share in 9M21 (versus market share of 15.1% in 2019 and
16% in 2020).
o Synthetic yarns: In 9M21, the total value of Vietnam's synthetic yarn imports into Japan reached JP¥3.7bn
(+40% YoY), accounting for 7.6% of the market share (up from 6.6% in 2020), and is likely to record a 5th
consecutive year of market share growth (from 3% in 2016).
• China fiber market:
o In 8M21, the total value of fiber imported from Vietnam into China reached VND1,993bn (+57.1% YoY),
exceeding VND1,267bn in 8M19 and was the highest 8M figure in the last five years. We expect a strong
recovery in textile production volume in China in 2021, especially from 3Q21, to cater to the soaring
demand in major consumer markets around the world, which is the main reason for strong growth in
Vietnamese yarn consumption.
Import garment growth in Japan China cloth and yarn production growth in volume
2019 2020 2021F Cloth Yarn

(% YoY)
20%
20
15% 15
10
10%
5
5% 0
-5
0%
-10
-5% -15
-10% -20
-25
-15% -30
Mar-18
May-18
Jul-18
Sep-18
Nov-18
Jan-19
Mar-19
May-19
Jul-19
Sep-19
Nov-19
Jan-20
Mar-20
May-20
Jul-20
Sep-20
Nov-20
Jan-21
Mar-21
May-21
Jul-21
-20%
Total China Viet Nam Cambodia Bangladesh
Source: Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research, Statistics of Japan Source: Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research, National Bureau of Statistics of China

Key growth drivers in • Demand recovers in key markets: Demand in major export markets recorded a strong recovery, especially in 2Q21,
when countries completely lifted blockade measures. In 2022, with Covid-19 vaccination rates of above 70% of the
2022 population in most of the major markets, we expect textile consumption to continue to recover.
• FTAs continue to bring benefits:
• CPTPP: Vietnam's textile and garment exports to Canada in 10M21 reached more than US$745mn (+14% YoY),
continuing the strong upward trend from 2017 and especially from 2019, when the CPTPP took effect. We expect
Vietnam's textile and garment export value to Canada to grow by 10% YoY in 2022.
• EVFTA: The tariff and duties on Vietnam textiles and garments to the EU will be gradually reduced according to
the agreement, which will enhance the competitiveness of Vietnamese products. We expect Vietnam's textile
and garment exports to the EU to be positive in 2022, with the clothing export value forecast to reach EU€3bn
(+11% YoY).
• Demand for recycled polyester yarn continues to grow: Recycled polyester yarn is strongly supported by most of the
well-known textile brands, such as Nike, Adidas, The North Face, and Decathlon, as well as household brands, like IKEA. It
is forecast to maintain a proportion of 16–17% of total global polyester yarn production and grow at a CAGR of 4%.
Apparel retail sales in key markets Vietnam textile export growth
EU US Japan South Korea Canada (% YoY) 2019 2020 2021F

(% YoY)
80%
900
800 60%
700 40%
600
20%
500
400 0%
300 -20%
200
100 -40%
0 Fibres, not Pieces of cloth Bags, pockets, Auxiliary Textile, sewing
-100 spun and other wallets, materials for products
-200 technical suitcases, hats textile,
Jan-20
Mar-20
May-20
Jul-20
Sep-20
Nov-20
Jan-21
Mar-21
May-21
Jul-21
Sep-21
cloths and umbrellas garment,

leather,
footwear
Source: Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research, Bloomberg Source: Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research, GSO

Key risks in 2022 • Production recovery takes time: Up to the beginning of October, the labor employment index (LEI) of the garment
industry in Vietnam was still at negative growth of -7.1% YoY, although this was an improvement compared with the
social distancing period in September 2021. The latest 3-month average garment industry IIP remained low. Many
workers who leave industrial parks to avoid social distancing measures or because of job loss may also delay their return
when it is only two months before Vietnam enters the 2022 Lunar New Year holiday. Besides, the redeployment of
production lines to adapt to the pandemic can also disturb production activities and slow down the recovery process. It
could lead to brands transferring 1Q21 orders to other countries.
• Rising costs: The shipping price index jumped from 1Q21. Although there were signs of cooling down in October, it is
still at a very high level. Transport prices on some key routes, such as Asia–North America, have continued to climb,
causing the export costs of textile enterprises to escalate. In addition, Covid-19-related operating costs, such as testing,
production redeployment, and increased production costs due to inflationary pressure could potentially erode the profit
margins of textile and garment enterprises.
• Risks of dependence on key markets: Currently, Vietnam's textile and garment exports are still heavily dependent on
two main markets: China (accounting for 70.9% of yarn exports) and the US (accounting for 56.2% of apparel exports).
Therefore, any changes in these two markets will greatly affect the operations of Vietnam's textile and garment industry.
Vietnam apparel IIP Shipping price index
(% Apparel 3-month average Asia - North America Asia - Europe Asia - Asia
YoY)
40 300
30
250
20
200
10
150
0
100
-10
-20 50
-30 0
Jan-19
Apr-19
Jul-19
Oct-19
Jan-20
Apr-20
Jul-20
Oct-20
Jan-21
Apr-21
Jul-21
Oct-21
Jan-18
Apr-18
Jul-18
Oct-18
Jan-19
Apr-19
Jul-19
Oct-19
Jan-20
Apr-20
Jul-20
Oct-20
Jan-21
Apr-21
Jul-21
Oct-21
Source: Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research, GSO Source: Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research, Container Trade Statistics

Seaports – Steady growth
Business grew • In 9M21, most of Vietnam’s seaport companies recorded strong growth in revenue and operating profit. Specifically,
companies such as DVP, PDN, CDN, SGP, GMD, and PHP recorded double-digit growth in revenue and operating profit.
significantly in 9M21 Of these, DVP (+20.2%), SGP (+43.4%), GMD (+14%), and PHP (+12.8%) recorded strong revenue growth, compared with a
decrease in 9M20, while CDN (+22.9%) and PDN (+21.5%) continued their growth momentum from last year.
• We believe that the growth in cargo clearance volume is the main reason for the strong growth in the port industry in
9M21, as the service price bracket of the whole industry has been unable to increase because of the Covid-19 pandemic.
Revenue growth (% YoY) Operating profit growth (% YoY)
9M20 9M21 9M20 9M21
50% 100%
40% 80%
30% 60%
20% 40%
10% 20%
0% 0%
-10% -20%
-20% -40%
-30% -60%
DVP PDN CDN SGP GMD PHP DVP PDN CDN SGP GMD PHP
Source: Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research, Company data Source: Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research, Company data

Seaports – Steady growth (cont’d.)
Export-import • Container and dry cargo continue to be the main growth drivers: Total volume of cargo clearance as of
November 2021 is estimated at 647mn tons (+2.7% YoY). Specifically, the volume of container cargo is estimated at
activities and port 221mn tons (+5.4% YoY) and dry cargo at 355mn tons (+6.0% YoY). Meanwhile, the volume of liquid cargo is only
clearance saw good 68.5mn tons (-3.5% YoY) and transit cargo is estimated at 69.5mn tons (-3.2% YoY).
growth • Import-export turnover in 11M21 increased sharply, by 16.1% YoY, to reach US$568.9bn. Of this, export goods
structure changed, as Textiles and Garments, Footwear, and Phones & Mobile Components recorded a decline in
proportion, while Iron and Steel, Machinery, and Computer Electronics increased their proportion. In 10M21, most
main export products recorded growth; notably, Iron and Steel exports recorded a jump of 133.7% YoY.
Throughput volume Export-import value
(% YoY) 2018 2019 2020 2021 YTD Value (L) Growth rate (R ) (% YoY)
(US$bn)
35% 600 18%
30% 580 16%
25% 560 14%
20% 540
12%
520
15% 10%
500
10% 8%
480
5% 6%
460
0% 440 4%
-5% 420 2%
-10% 400 0%
Total Container Liquid goods Dry bulk Transit goods 11T2019 11T2020 11T2021
Source: Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research, Vietnam Marine Administration Source: Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research, Vietnam Customs

Key growth drivers in • FDI attraction continues to grow: In 10M21, the number of valid FDI projects in the processing and
manufacturing industry reached 15,528 projects (+3.2% YoY), with total registered investment capital of US$239bn
2022 (+6.9% YoY). The developing industrial area is a good foundation to attract FDI in 2022, thereby supporting import-
export activities and the output of the seaport industry.
• Manufacturing activity recovers and adapts to Covid-19: After plummeting in August and September, due to
blockade measures, the October IIP showed signs of recovery, as the decline rate was only -1.59% YoY and PMI
also recovered above 50.
• Development of water transport: Sea shipping and inland waterway transport activities in 10M21 recorded a
recovery compared with the same period in 2020. Specifically, the volume of sea and inland waterway transport in
10M21 was 68.1mn tons (+2.9% YoY) and 265mn tons (-3.2% YoY), respectively, significant improvements
compared with declines of 4.2% and 11.6%, respectively, in 10M20. Notably, the total tonnage of seagoing ships
and riverboats increased sharply, up 22% YoY and 14.5% YoY, respectively.
• Economies of Vietnam’s main export markets have recovered: The GDPs of major markets, such as the US, EU,
Japan, and China are forecast to continue to grow in 2022 and 2023.
FDI attraction Waterway transport growth in tonnage (% YoY)
Number of valid projects Accumulated registered capital Sea vessel Inland waterway vessel
(% YoY)
25.0%
12%
20.0%
10%
15.0%
8%
10.0%
6%
5.0%
4%
0.0%
2%
-5.0%
0% 10T2018 10T2019 10T2020 10T2021
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 YTD
Source: Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research, GSO Source: Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research, Vietnam Register

Key risks in 2022 • The Covid-19 pandemic affects world maritime activity: With the "Zero-Covid" strategy, China in August suspended
operations at Mi Son station, Ningbo port. Similarly, operations at major seaports in the world, besides recording high
growth rates, also experienced congestion that increased clearance times. Accordingly, shipping operations around the
world are at risk of being choked if this situation continues. This adversely affects maritime routes to Vietnam, as well as
import-export activities.
Growth in customs clearance output (% YoY) at world’s key terminals
14%
12%
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
-2%
Singapore Hong Kong China US

Appendix – Earnings forecast
Net profit forecast (VNDbn)
Stock Industry 4Q20 4Q21F YoY FY20 FY21F YoY FY22F YoY
CTG Banks 5,384 4,603 -15% 13,757 15,779 15% 21,761 38%
HDB Banks 1,146 1,078 -6% 4,647 5,942 28% 6,712 13%
TCB Banks 3,953 3,982 1% 12,325 17,428 41% 20,015 15%
VCB Banks 5,668 5,094 -10% 18,451 20,547 11% 25,299 23%
VIB Banks 1,421 1,326 -7% 4,642 5,567 20% 7,333 32%
VPB Banks 2,897 3,603 24% 10,414 12,982 153% 16,220 25%
SHB Banks 642 1,818 183% 2,607 5,785 122% 5,463 -6%
ACB Banks 2,550 2,725 7% 7,683 9,900 29% 12,250 24%
BID Banks 1,637 1,776 19% 6,997 10,130 45% 12,300 21%
MSN F&B 265 1,926 627% 1,234 4,052 228% 6,269 55%
SAB F&B 1,466 945 -36% 4,937 3,543 -28% 5,148 45%
VNM F&B 2,236 2,713 21% 11,236 11,133 -1% 11,270 1%
NAF F&B 12 21 71% 61 81 33% 112 38%
PNJ Luxury goods 427 332 -22% 1,069 909 -15% 1,419 56%

DIG Real estate 506 960 90% 711 1,097 54% 766 -30%
SZC Real estate 24 19 -21% 186 277 49% 601 117%
VHM Real estate 11,560 4,930 -57% 28,206 31,906 13% 32,706 3%
VIC Real estate 1,551 1,632 5% 4,545 3,322 -27% 3,686 11%
VRE Real estate 974 621 -36% 2,382 1,814 -24% 2,687 48%
NVL Real estate 586 2,447 318% 3,906 4,997 28% 3,787 -24%
PDR Real estate 501 952 90% 1,220 2,061 69% 3,156 53%
KHG Real estate 73 313 329% 97 413 326% 1,394 238%
IJC Real estate 145 105 -28% 370 657 78% 798 21%
MWG Retail 942 1,161 23% 3,920 4,497 15% 5,519 23%
HPG Steel 4,661 9,620 106% 13,506 36,721 172% 33,569 -9%
HSG (*) Steel 1,153 4,313 274% 3,417 -21%
NKG Steel 154 762 395% 295 2,536 760% 1,480 -42%
FPT IT 983 1,189 21% 3,538 4,220 19% 5,200 23%
STK Textile 68 40 -42% 143 243 69% 292 20%

NT2 Utilities 203 150 -26% 625 563 -10% 612 9%
PC1 Utilities 132 101 -24% 513 651 27% 407 -37%
POW Utilities 892 236 -73% 2,365 2,103 -11% 2,697 28%
PPC Utilities 502 180 -64% 1,011 403 -60% 742 84%
REE Utilities 651 467 -28% 1,628 1,529 -6% 1,995 30%
DVP Seaport 46 64 38% 238 282 18% 304 8%
GAS Oil & Gas 1,682 2,566 53% 7,854 9,275 18% 11,043 19%
PLX Oil & Gas 933 1,086 16% 988 3,229 227% 3,385 5%
PVT Oil & Gas 262 275 5% 669 720 8% 856 19%
PVD Oil & Gas 60 93 55% 186 64 -66% 400 525%
PVS Oil & Gas 74 177 139% 624 707 13% 955 35%
Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Vietnam Research (* HSG: FY to September 30)

APPENDIX 1
Stock Ratings Industry Ratings
Buy : Relative performance of 20% or greater Overweight : Fundamentals are favorable or improving
Trading Buy : Relative performance of 10% or greater, but with volatility Neutral : Fundamentals are steady without any material changes
Hold : Relative performance of -10% and 10% Underweight : Fundamentals are unfavorable or worsening
Sell : Relative performance of -10%
Ratings and Target Price History (Share price (─), Target price (▬), Not covered (■), Buy (▲), Trading Buy (■), Hold (●), Sell (◆))
* Our investment rating is a guide to the relative return of the stock versus the market over the next 12 months.
* Although it is not part of the official ratings at Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) JSC, we may call a trading opportunity in case there is a technical or short-term material development.
* The target price was determined by the research analyst through valuation methods discussed in this report, in part based on the analyst’s estimate of future earnings.
* The achievement of the target price may be impeded by risks related to the subject securities and companies, as well as general market and economic conditions.
Analyst Certification
The research analysts who prepared this report (the “Analysts”) are subject to Vietnamese securities regulations. They are neither registered as research analysts in any other
jurisdiction nor subject to the laws and regulations thereof. Opinions expressed in this publication about the subject securities and companies accurately reflect the personal
views of the Analysts primarily responsible for this report. Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) JSC (MAS) policy prohibits its Analysts and members of their households from
owning securities of any company in the Analyst’s area of coverage, and the Analysts do not serve as an officer, director or advisory board member of the subject companies.
Except as otherwise specified herein, the Analysts have not received any compensation or any other benefits from the subject companies in the past 12 months and have not
been promised the same in connection with this report. No part of the compensation of the Analysts was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific
recommendations or views contained in this report but, like all employees of MAS, the Analysts receive compensation that is determined by overall firm profitability, which
includes revenues from, among other business units, the institutional equities, investment banking, proprietary trading and private client division. At the time of publication of
this report, the Analysts do not know or have reason to know of any actual, material conflict of interest of the Analyst or MAS except as otherwise stated herein.
Disclaimers
This report is published by Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) JSC (MAS), a broker-dealer registered in the Socialist Republic of Vietnam and a member of the Vietnam Stock
Exchanges. Information and opinions contained herein have been compiled in good faith and from sources believed to be reliable, but such information has not been
independently verified and MAS makes no guarantee, representation or warranty, express or implied, as to the fairness, accuracy, completeness or correctness of the
information and opinions contained herein or of any translation into English from the Vietnamese language. In case of an English translation of a report prepared in the
Vietnamese language, the original Vietnamese language report may have been made available to investors in advance of this report.
The intended recipients of this report are sophisticated institutional investors who have substantial knowledge of the local business environment, its common practices, laws
and accounting principles and no person whose receipt or use of this report would violate any laws and regulations or subject MAS and its affiliates to registration or licensing
requirements in any jurisdiction shall receive or make any use hereof.
This report is for general information purposes only and it is not and shall not be construed as an offer or a solicitation of an offer to effect transactions in any securities or
other financial instruments. The report does not constitute investment advice to any person and such person shall not be treated as a client of MAS by virtue of receiving this
report. This report does not take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual clients. The report is not to be relied upon in
substitution for the exercise of independent judgment. Information and opinions contained herein are as of the date hereof and are subject to change without notice. The price
and value of the investments referred to in this report and the income from them may depreciate or appreciate, and investors may incur losses on investments. Past
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employees and agents do not accept any liability for any loss arising out of the use hereof.
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Strategy report | Dec 2021

VIETNAM ECONOMY AND STOCK MARKET

I. Vietnam economy 2021 review and 2022 outlook 3

2 | Vietnam focus: Strategy Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research

3 | Vietnam focus: Strategy Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research

Source: GSO, Bloomberg, Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research compilation.

5 | Vietnam focus: Strategy Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research

GDP China Hong Kong

0.0 -5.0 -10

6 | Vietnam focus: Strategy Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research

7 | Vietnam focus: Strategy Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research

(% 2021f 2022f 2021f consensus 2022f consensus

Best case 4.5% 2.4% 6.2%

Source: Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research forecast

8 | Vietnam focus: Strategy Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research

Monthly IIP Manufacturing IIP in 11M21

IIP Manufacturing and processing IIP Basic metals 23.4

Pharmaceuticals -18.2 (% YoY)

Source: GSO, Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research compilation

9 | Vietnam focus: Strategy Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research

IIP growth rate by sector in the period 2020−11M21

Water Supply and

Source: GSO, Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research compilation

10 | Vietnam focus: Strategy Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research

(Point) PMI 3-month average PMI

Source: Bloomberg, Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research compilation

11 | Vietnam focus: Strategy Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research

Trade balance (L) (US$bn) 2017 2018 2019 2020 11M21

12 | Vietnam focus: Strategy Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research

EU 12 51 -12 10 49 21 4 11 0 -12 -12 43

South Korea 7 33 -16 14 29 13 7 7 -5 23 11 57

Japan 6 12 -22 2 19 19 22 14 4 -22 -19 9

Growth of Vietnam’s monthly exports by country

Electronic goods, computers, and their parts 15 46 23 27 27 14 5 -9 1 7 8 2

Phones and their parts 17 126 -24 -14 52 22 -10 10 4 9 -4 31

Machinery, instrument, accessory 11 119 43 78 83 47 25 28 16 8 14 41

Textiles and garments 10 8 -18 17 52 34 18 3 -12 -21 -5 35

Shoes and sandals 5 33 -11 23 43 41 38 3 -40 -46 -46 -2

Wood and products 4 61 25 52 96 82 65 21 -30 -38 -40 8

Seafood 3 24 -21 17 22 19 19 8 -27 -25 -23 45

Source: GSO, Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research compilation

13 | Vietnam focus: Strategy Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research

FTA Status Members

Came into effect in Hong Kong (China), Laos, Myanmar,

EVFTA Came into effect on August 1, 2020 Vietnam, EU (27 members)

UKVFTA Came into effect on May 1, 2021 Vietnam, UK

FTA not yet ratified, coming into effect soon

14 | Vietnam focus: Strategy Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research

month 8.7% YoY), equaling 73.8% of the year plan.

(VNDtr) 11M21 disbursement

15 | Vietnam focus: Strategy Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research

Total Directives/decisions Content

Source: Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research compilation

16 | Vietnam focus: Strategy Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research

17 | Vietnam focus: Strategy Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research

South Korea Singapore Hong Kong Taiwan

18 | Vietnam focus: Strategy Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research

Retail sales of consumer goods and services

19 | Vietnam focus: Strategy Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research

Phase 2: Pilot scheme of Phase 3: Deployment of

20 | Vietnam focus: Strategy Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research

Newly-established enterprises (% YoY) Registered capital