PR-1

Hitung ES, EF, LS, LF, Expected project completion time (t),
variances and the probability

ACTIVITY TIME ESTIMATES (Days)

a m b
1-2 4 7 16
1-3 6 9 12
2-3 2 4 6
2-4 1 3 5
3-4 5 7 9
3-5 3 3 3
4-5 3 4 5

ES=0 EF=4 2
LS=0 LF=4 1

4 ES= 4 EF=6
LS= 4 LF=6
2
1 1

ES=0 EF=6 6
LS= 0 LF=6
33

8 day slack

ES=0 EF=7 2 ES= 7 EF=10

3 LS=15 LF=18
LS=0 LF=7

7
ES=7 EF=11
LS=7 LF=11 4
4
11

7
ES=0 EF=9 9
LS= 2 LF=11
3 3

2 days slack

TIME ESTIMATES (Days)

ACTIVITY a m b te
A (1-2) 4 7 16 8
B (1-3) 6 9 12 9
C (2-3) 2 4 6 4
D (2-4) 1 3 5 3
E (3-4) 5 7 9 7
F (3-5) 3 3 3 3
G (4-5) 3 4 5 4
Expected time (te) dan Expected Duration Path (Path total)
Time Estimates (days)
Path Activity a m b
A 4 7 16
D 1 3 5
A-D-G G 3 4 5
A 4 7 16
C 2 4 6
E 5 7 9
A-C-E-G G 3 4 5
B 6 9 12
E 5 7 9
B-E-G G 3 4 5
B 6 9 12
B-F F 3 3 3
A 4 7 16
C 2 4 6
A-C-F F 3 3 3

Variance
Time Estimates (days)
Path Activity a m b
A 4 7 16
D 1 3 5
A-D-G G 3 4 5
A 4 7 16
C 2 4 6
E 5 7 9
A-C-E-G G 3 4 5
B 6 9 12
E 5 7 9
B-E-G G 3 4 5
B 6 9 12
B-F F 3 3 3
A 4 7 16
C 2 4 6
A-C-F F 3 3 3
 ES
=0

EF
=4
LS
=0

LF
=4
6
da
y
ES= 4 EF=5
sla
1 LS=10 LF=11
ck ES=11 EF=14
LS=11 LF=14

ES= 4 EF=6 3
LS= 4 LF=6 4
5
ES=6 EF=11
LS=6 LF=11
(b)
5 ES=6 EF=9
LS=6 LF=9
3
ES=0 EF=16 2
3 LS=0 LF=16

ck
16 ES=16 EF=22
LS=16 LF=22
ES=18 EF=22 6
11
LS=18 LF=22
4
4 5
ES=0 EF=12
ES=11 EF=18 LS= 10 LF=22 12
LS=11 LF=18

ES=11 EF=14 10 days slack

LS=11 LF=14
3
 te Path Total
8 15 (jalur A-D-G selama 15 hari)
3
4
8 23 (jalur A-C-E-G selama 23 hari)
4
7
4
9 20 (jalur B-E-G selama 20 hari)
7
4
9 12 (jalur B-F selama 12 hari)
3
8 15 (jalur A-C-F selama 15 hari)
4
3

(b-a)^2 σ^2 σ^2 Path σ Path

144 4 4.555556 2.134375
16 0.444444
4 0.111111
144 4 5 2.236068
16 0.444444
16 0.444444
4 0.111111
36 1 1.555556 1.247219
16 0.444444
4 0.111111
36 1 1 1
0 0
144 4 4.444444 2.108185
16 0.444444
0 0
 10 day slack

ES= 16 EF=21
5 LS=26 LF=31
ES=31 EF=36
LS=31 LF=36

ES=16 EF=22 5
LS=16 LF=22 4 5

ES=22 EF=31
LS=22 LF=31

9 ES=22 EF=25
LS=22 LF=25
3
33