ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY AND MACHINE LEARNING References

1,2 1,2 3,1 4 1 Albora G., Pietronero L., Tacchella A., and Zaccaria A. "Product progression: a machine learning approach to
M. Straccamore, G. Albora, A. Zaccaria, A. Tacchella, L. Pietronero forecasting industrial upgrading", arXiv preprint arXiv:2105.15018v1, 2021.
1. Centro Ricerche Enrico Fermi Piazza del Viminale, 1, 00184 Rome, Italy
2. Dipartimento di Fisica Università “Sapienza” P.le A. Moro, 2, 00185 Rome, Italy Straccamore M., Pietronero L., and Zaccaria A., “Which will be your firm’s next technology? Comparison between
3. Istituto dei Sistemi Complessi (ISC) - CNR UoS Sapienza,P.le A. Moro, 2, 00185 Rome, Italy machine learning and network-based algorithms”, arXiv preprint arXiv:2110.02004v1, 2021.
4. Joint Research Centre, Seville, Spain

Introduction Machine Learning Firms' Results Continuous Technology Space (CTS)

Economic complexity is a multidisciplinary Here we present two analysis in which the Machine learning is a branch of AI that today After the model has been built, we can Farm, organic chemistry, Informations Archiving
Nanotek Instruments Inc.

economic actors are the countries and the is increasingly used in many different contexts input the data about either a country or a veterinary
approach that describes economics as an Electrical communication S = 0.045 B29C
Batteries H01L

firms. The goal is to describe their evolution with excellent results. It is natural to adopt it in firm in year y_last and it will tell us its t echni ques
evolutionary process of interacting C08K

ecosystems, using methods from different using only one type of data: respectively the order to make predictions on the evolution of predictions or, in other words, which exports H01M

Machines C23C G05B

fields like complex networks, machine exported products for the countries and the countries and firms. The key of machine (or technologies) a country (or firm) will C01B
C04B
S = 0.091

patented technologies for the firms. In both learning is to use data in order to build a activate in the future with respect to y_last. S = 0.323

learning and big data. Many quantities can Locks, keys

cases we start from a bipartite network that model. From the analysis of export data of They exist different types of machine
be used to describe an ecosystem, but the
can be described by a binary matrix M. countries (or technology data of firms) in learning algorithms, here we use Random B05B

more you use, the more you need to arange of years [y_0, y_last], an algorithm can Forest and XGBoost, that are both based Weapons
introduce free parameters in order to be trainedin order to make predictions on the on decision trees. and can leverage the Motor vehicles
H05H

Nano-scaled C30B
combine them and the bigger is the noise. future. hierarchical structure of our data. Fuels Graphene Plate G03G

Decision Tree Organic chemistry Building

a nd pr ocesses Food C01G

This decision tree has the task to predict if a country will export a target product p after S = 0.487 C22C B22F

5 years. Depending on its present exports the country follows the splits and depending
Wearing & Textiles
on its final destination we predict either if it will export the target product (blue box) or if This part of CTS describes the Nanotek company in
Paper making
it won’t export it (orange box). 2002, when it patents the Nano-scaled Graphene
• CTS: each point is a technology and each colour is plate and two type of batteries. The red points are the
one of the macro category; technology codes done in the previous year, the gold
• Interpretability: if a company does technology are those relative to the three inventions. We can see
in the CTS, it will more probably start patenting in how the gold points are near to the red ones. S is the
nearest technology. probability to do the gold points given the red ones.

Networks Predictions 1) Random Forest Countries' Results The superiority of Decisions Trees
The random forest consists into the parallel training of different decision trees. The
A classical way to measure the probability The more a node p of the B network is close final predictions are given by a majority vote in which all the trees contributes equally.
that a link will appear connecting two nodes to other nodes that in the M network are Decision Tree 1

of our bipartite network M is based on the connected to a node c, the more it is high Full Data Score Matrix

construction of a monopartite network B the probability that it will appear a link Prediction 1

either for the products or the technologies between c and p in the M network. What Decision Tree 2

according to the problem. The link between we are doing is a density based prediction, A
Average
l l

indeed we are looking to the density of Predictions

two nodes of this network reflects their

products (or technologies) in which a Prediction 2
Here we make a comparison between some
proximity (i.e. how similar they are).
...
country (or a firm) is active. Decision Tree n
Machine Learning algorithms that makes
Prediction n MACHINE LEARNING PERFORMS BETTER THAN NETWORK BASED APPROACHES
predictions on future exports of
2) XGBoost countries. Excluding the autocorrelation
XGBoost consists into a training in series of different decision tree. Each tree works benchmark, the four most performing
on the samples that the previous trees classified badly, or in other words it tries to algorithms are based on Decision Trees.
correct the mistakes of its predecessors.

C. A. Hidalgo, B. Klinger, A. Zaccaria, M. Cristelli, A.

A-L Barabàsi, and R. Hausmann.
The product space conditions the
development of nations. Science,
317(5837):482-487, 2007
Tacchella, and L. Pietronero.
How the taxonomy of products
drives the economic development
of countries. PloS one,
9(12):e113770, 2014.
Tacchella, A., Zaccaria, A., Miccheli,
M. & Pietronero, L. "Relatedness in
the era of machine learning", arXiv
preprint arXiv:2103.06017 (2021).